2016年12月05日

優柔不断な鉄人 ドイツとその首相は自由世界を引っ張っていく事に依然として躊躇っている。

Iron waffler
Germany and its chancellor are still too hesitant to be able to lead the free world
Nov 19th 2016 | From the print edition

waffler:無駄口を叩く人・コロコロ考えが変わる人
hesitant:ためらって

優柔不断な鉄人
ドイツとその首相は自由世界を引っ張っていく事に依然として躊躇っている。



TO VISIT Berlin is to be confronted at every turn by reminders of the evils that Germans do. Memorials to the Holocaust and other wartime atrocities dot the city. In Kreuzberg, a scruffy-but-hip neighbourhood, posters and leaflets denounce milder German iniquities, from urban gentrification to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a hated trade deal between the European Union and America that the election of Donald Trump may have killed for good. 

at every turn:至る所に
reminders:残滓
evils:弊害
dot:に点在している
scruffy-but-hip:汚らしいが、流行に敏感な
denounce:非難する
iniquities:邪悪
gentrification:再開発
killed for good:永久にやめる

Outside Germany, though, Mr Trump’s victory has left disaffected liberals gasping for German benevolence. Brexit, the refugee crisis and the rise of drawbridge-up populists across Europe had already punctured the West’s self-confidence. Now, after an election campaign in which Mr Trump trashed immigrants, vowed to rewrite trade deals and threatened to withdraw America’s security guarantee, the West’s indispensable nation appears to have dispensed with itself. Desperate for a candidate to accept the mantle of leader of the free world, some alighted on Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor. 

disaffected:不満のある
gasping:ハッと息を飲む
benevolence:仁・善行
drawbridge-up:釣り上げ橋をあげる
punctured:台無しにする
self-confidence:自信
trashed :ボロクソに言う
indispensable:無視できない
dispensed:自分自身で行う
Desperate:相応しい人物に〜を強く望む
mantle of leader:リーダーの重責
alighted:鳥が降りてきて止まる

It is easy to see why. Unflappable and patient, dedicated to the freedom she had thrust upon her as a young East German physicist in 1989, Mrs Merkel is a beacon to those who fear the flickering of the liberal flame. She likes markets, trade and good governance. Her commitment to helping refugees fleeing strife in Syria contrasts with the anti-migrant turn elsewhere in Europe. Mr Trump’s victory should extinguish any speculation that Mrs Merkel will not seek a fourth term as chancellor next year in Germany’s federal election; expect an announcement soon. 

Unflappable:緊急事態でもバタバタしない
thrust:祭り上げられた
beacon:指標となる人
flickering:明滅する
liberal flame:自由主義の炎
extinguish:消す
speculation:憶測

Yet anyone expecting Germany to fill America’s shoes will be disappointed. Consider Mrs Merkel’s approach to crisis management, from the euro to Ukraine to refugees. Each played out differently, but Mrs Merkel’s prevarication was consistent: humming and hawing over bail-outs for indebted governments; taking Vladimir Putin at his word before realising he was a liar; reacting to the refugee surge rather than trying to prevent it. For those seeking stability, Mrs Merkel’s taste for hesitation may be a feature, not a bug, but it hardly makes for bold leadership. 

fill America’s shoes:アメリカの代役を果たす
prevarication:言い逃れ
consistent:首尾一貫している
humming and hawing:躊躇って口ごもる
indebted:債務のある
taking Vladimir Putin at his word:彼のことを言うがままに信じる
hesitation:ためらい・くちごもり
feature:特徴
bug:欠陥

Nor does German assertiveness inside Europe run smoothly. Seventy years after the second world war, protestors in Greece and Spain who resent Germany’s strict approach to fiscal stewardship still resort to Nazi tropes. The occasional attempt to form “anti-austerity” (read: anti-German) axes inside the EU elicits terror in Berlin. The world’s progressives may have loved it, but some in Berlin were uneasy at the chiding tone of Mrs Merkel’s letter of congratulation to Mr Trump, which pledged co-operation on the basis of a commitment to liberal values. “We are protected by our terrible history,” says Joschka Fischer, a former foreign minister. “You cannot say, ‘Make Germany Great Again’.” 

assertiveness:自己主張
Seventy:70年の
resent:憤慨する
stewardship:管理・経営
resort:に訴える
tropes:比喩
axes:枢軸国
elicits :引き出す
progressives:革新主義者
chiding :小言を言う

トランプがアメリカをリードする事になるが、欧州は誰が彼に対応するのだろうか。多分、対応できるのは今までの経歴と実績を見るとメルケルしかいない。たしかに彼女はアメリカのやり方とは違ったやり方になるだろうが、それは彼女の性格であって、欠点ではない。アメリカの民族主義に対して、EUはTTIPも含めてどう対処していくのだろうか。

日本もそうだが、トランプやプーチンと対等に渡り合える人材がEUにはメルケルしかいなさそうだ。イギリスのメイ、イタリアのレンツィ、フランスの誰かのいずれも無理だろう。トランプが果たして、公約のAmerica Firstをどこまで主張していくのかが、EUの最大の課題だろう。今更、GlobalizaitonとかClimate Changeとかの旗を降ろすことはしないだろう。TTIPはEUも合意が取れそうにないので、これは無理かもしれない。移民問題はEUの問題としてた言うすればいいので、アメリカの考えが異なって問題ではない。

火曜日。昨日は一日資料作成をした。夕方、ダイセルの竹中さんと團野さんが会社に来られた。海野塾への参加の件だった。夜も継続して、研修資料の作成。少し本も書いた。今日も一日研修資料と本書き。夜は梓沢先生と西條さんとの会食。彼らとは本当に久しぶりだ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 18:40コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2016年12月04日

新たな民族主義 アメリカ第一主義と彼が言っているように、Donard Trumpは危険な民族主義の新参者だ。(2)

Meanwhile, Chinese nationalism has become so angry and vengeful that the party struggles to control it. True, the country depends upon open markets, embraces some global institutions and wants to be close to America. But from the 1990s onwards schoolchildren have received a daily dose of “patriotic” education setting out the mission to erase a century of humiliating occupation. And, to count as properly Chinese you have in practice to belong to the Han people: everyone else is a second-class citizen. 

vengeful:執念深い
embraces:受け入れる
onwards:以降
humiliating:屈辱的な
to count as:とみなす
in practice:実際のところは

Even as ethnic nationalism has prospered, the world’s greatest experiment in “post-nationalism” has foundered. The architects of what was to become the EU believed that nationalism, which had dragged Europe into two ruinous world wars, would wither and die. The EU would transcend national rivalries with a series of nested identities in which you could be Catholic, Alsatian, French and European all at once. 

Even as:ちょうど〜のように
foundered:失敗する
architects:設計者
ruinous:破滅的な
wither:しおれる
transcend:凌ぐ

However, in large parts of the EU this never happened. The British have voted to leave and in former communist countries, such as Poland and Hungary, power has passed to xenophobic ultranationalists. There is even a small but growing threat that France might quit—and so destroy—the EU. 

passed:に移る

The last time America turned inward was after the first world war and the consequences were calamitous. You do not have to foresee anything so dire to fear Mr Trump’s new nationalism today. At home it tends to produce intolerance and to feed doubts about the virtue and loyalties of minorities. It is no accident that allegations of anti-Semitism have infected the bloodstream of American politics for the first time in decades. 

calamitous:悲惨な
foresee:予見する
dire:ひどい
feed:あおる
virtue:徳・長所
loyalties:友愛・支持
no accident:けっして偶然ではない
allegations:主張
anti-Semitism:反ユダヤ主義
infected:感染する・影響を与える
bloodstream:血流

Abroad, as other countries take their cue from a more inward-looking United States, regional and global problems will become harder to solve. The ICC’s annual assembly this week was overshadowed by the departure of three African countries. China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea are incompatible with UNCLOS. If Mr Trump enacts even a fraction of his mercantilist rhetoric, he risks neutering the World Trade Organisation. If he thinks that America’s allies are failing to pay for the security they receive, he has threatened to walk away from them. The result—especially for small countries that today are protected by global rules—will be a harsher and more unstable world. 

cue:からヒントを得る
overshadowed:影を投げる
incompatible:相容れない
fraction:部分・ほんの一部
mercantilist:営利主義
neutering:骨抜きにする
harsher:過酷な

Isolationists unite
Mr Trump needs to realise that his policies will unfold in the context of other countries’ jealous nationalism. Disengaging will not cut America off from the world so much as leave it vulnerable to the turmoil and strife that the new nationalism engenders. As global politics is poisoned, America will be impoverished and its own anger will grow, which risks trapping Mr Trump in a vicious circle of reprisals and hostility. It is not too late for him to abandon his dark vision. For the sake of his country and the world he urgently needs to reclaim the enlightened patriotism of the presidents who went before him. 

unfold:展開する
jealous:用心した
Disengaging:撤退する・手を引く
so much as:ではなく、むしろ
engenders:引き起こす
poisoned:汚染する
impoverished:疲弊する
reprisals:報復
reclaim:取り戻す
enlightened:良識ある

中国がオープンマーケットを志向してきてはいるが、最近の中華帝国の考えが浸透してきていて、一方、EUも英国のBrexitに見られるように、民族主義がまた流行してきている。アメリカが第一次大戦の後で取った内向きの外交は悲惨であった。今、トランプがそうしたことをしてしまうと、世界はますますその傾向を強めていくだろう。アメリカにとっても国内を優先する民族主義はいいことではない。

トランプは今まで彼が言ってきたことを今この体制移行期に考えないしているだろう。ここで言っているように、今までのトランプが言ってきたAmerica the Firstというメッセージは世界を混乱させるだけだろう。NAFTAを否定したり、メキシコでの工場移転を批判しているが、正しくない。彼の間違いは単純なので、是正もしやすい。

昨日はいつもの通りの多忙な日課をこなした。朝は6時前からブログの作成、10時からは研修資料のレビュー、その後は一日、7時までその修正、夜は本書きと歴史の勉強。今日は7時半から朝会。そのあとは昨日と同じパターンで、愚妻の様子次第だが、昼食を彼女ととるかもしれない。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 20:45コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2016年12月03日

新たな民族主義 アメリカ第一主義と彼が言っているように、Donard Trumpは危険な民族主義の新参者だ。

The new nationalism
With his call to put “America First”, Donald Trump is the latest recruit to a dangerous nationalism
Nov 19th 2016 | From the print edition 

新たな民族主義
アメリカ第一主義と彼が言っているように、Donard Trumpは危険な民族主義の新参者だ。



WHEN Donald Trump vowed to “Make America Great Again!” he was echoing the campaign of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Back then voters sought renewal after the failures of the Carter presidency. This month they elected Mr Trump because he, too, promised them a “historic once-in-a-lifetime” change. 

vowed:誓う

But there is a difference. On the eve of the vote, Reagan described America as a shining “city on a hill”. Listing all that America could contribute to keep the world safe, he dreamed of a country that “is not turned inward, but outward—toward others”. Mr Trump, by contrast, has sworn to put America First. Demanding respect from a freeloading world that takes leaders in Washington for fools, he says he will “no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism”. Reagan’s America was optimistic: Mr Trump’s is angry. 

sworn:誓う
respect:重視・配慮
freeloading:たかる
fools:カモ
Listing all:あらゆる〜をならべ立てて
 
Welcome to the new nationalism. For the first time since the second world war, the great and rising powers are simultaneously in thrall to various sorts of chauvinism. Like Mr Trump, leaders of countries such as Russia, China and Turkey embrace a pessimistic view that foreign affairs are often a zero-sum game in which global interests compete with national ones. It is a big change that makes for a more dangerous world. 

thrall:に囚われて
chauvinism:狂信的な愛国心

My country right or left
Nationalism is a slippery concept, which is why politicians find it so easy to manipulate. At its best, it unites the country around common values to accomplish things that people could never manage alone. This “civic nationalism” is conciliatory and forward-looking—the nationalism of the Peace Corps, say, or Canada’s inclusive patriotism or German support for the home team as hosts of the 2006 World Cup. Civic nationalism appeals to universal values, such as freedom and equality. It contrasts with “ethnic nationalism”, which is zero-sum, aggressive and nostalgic and which draws on race or history to set the nation apart. In its darkest hour in the first half of the 20th century ethnic nationalism led to war. 

slippery:つかみどころのない・あてにならない
manipulate:操作する・処理する
conciliatory:懐柔的な
Peace Corps: 平和部隊◆ケネディ大統領により創設された。教育や農業などの分野での発展途上国援助を目的とする米国の長期ボランティア派遣プログラム
home team:地元チーム

Mr Trump’s populism is a blow to civic nationalism. Nobody could doubt the patriotism of his post-war predecessors, yet every one of them endorsed America’s universal values and promoted them abroad. Even if a sense of exceptionalism stopped presidents signing up to outfits like the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), America has supported the rules-based order. By backing global institutions that staved off a dog-eat-dog world, the United States has made itself and the world safer and more prosperous. 

exceptionalism:例外論者
staved:防ぐ
dog-eat-dog:食うか食われるかの

Mr Trump threatens to weaken that commitment even as ethnic nationalism is strengthening elsewhere. In Russia Vladimir Putin has shunned cosmopolitan liberal values for a distinctly Russian mix of Slavic tradition and Orthodox Christianity. In Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan has turned away from the European Union and from peace talks with the Kurdish minority, in favour of a strident, Islamic nationalism that is quick to detect insults and threats from abroad. In India Narendra Modi remains outward-looking and modernising, but he has ties to radical ethnic-nationalist Hindu groups that preach chauvinism and intolerance. 

threatens:を脅す
ethnic:民族の
shunned:を避ける
cosmopolitan:世界主義的な
distinctly:まぎれもない
strident:自己主張の強い
detect:ということに気づく
insults:侮辱
threats:脅し
preach:説教する
chauvinism:狂信的な愛国心
intolerance:不寛容

トランプはアメリカを偉大にしようということで、レーガンと似ているが、レーガンは外に向かった政策を行ったが、トランプは国内重視の民族主義だ。そうしたスタンスはプーチンもそうだし、トルコのエルドアンもそうだ。彼はEU加盟に積極的ではもうない。インドのナレンドラモディは海外展開に積極的だが、民族主義のヒンズーの団体と提携している。

本当にそうした国内優先の保守主義が進行しそうだ。ただ期待できるのはプーチンのロシアとの提携、チャイナセブンの選挙後の習近平の中国との提携が彼の考えを変えさせるかもしれないということだ。AIIBにも加盟するだろう。ロシアのシベリア開発にも積極的に日本を巻き込んで、関心を示すだろう。そうなれば彼の国内優先主義は変わらざるを得ないだろう。

日曜日。昨日は海野塾があって、高橋の要望で、一昨日の海野塾のテーマを講義した。午後はいつものEdの講義があった。今日はいつもの慶州資料のレビューで、来週はイランだ。面白いテーマだ。あとは研修資料の作成と本書きと歴史の勉強だ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 20:16コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

例の80年代の興行 レーガノミックスへのDonald Trumpの試みは元祖のそれよりも金がかかりそうだ。(2)

Trumped-up trickle-down economics
American generosity might be in especially short supply as a result of a second side-effect of Trumpian Reaganomics. As the dollar soared in the early 1980s, America’s current account flipped from a small surplus into sizeable deficit. American firms howled. Efforts early in the 1980s to cajole trading partners into limiting exports gave way to more serious interventions later on. In 1985 James Baker, then treasury secretary, negotiated the Plaza accord with Britain, France, Japan and West Germany to bring down the value of the dollar. And in 1987 Reagan slapped economic sanctions on Japan for its failure to meet the terms of an agreement on trade in semiconductors. 

trickle-down economics:トリクルダウン効果〘大企業への資金投下が次々と末端まで浸透して景気を浮揚させるという経済
generosity:気前の良さ
short supply ;供給不足
sizeable:かなり大きな
howled:吠える
cajole:おだてる・丸め込む
slapped:ぴしゃりと叩く

Mr Trump, no instinctive free-trader, might face a similar dynamic. Faster growth and higher interest rates might attract foreign capital and place upward pressure on the dollar, which has indeed been rising since the election. That will help exporters to America and hamper a manufacturing revival in the struggling towns that helped Mr Trump win. In fact, the Mexican peso has fallen by about 10% against the dollar since the election, boosting the competitiveness of Mexican firms relative to their American counterparts. Yet Mr Trump will find responding to these shifts to be trickier than did Reagan. Sprawling supply-chains mean that punitive tariffs are less obviously useful to domestic firms than they once were. A battle over exchange rates between America and China could prove far more dangerous, both economically and geopolitically, than Mr Baker’s negotiations. 

instinctive:本能的な
hamper:邪魔をする
trickier:巧妙な
Sprawling:まとまりなく広がる
punitive:厳しい

Perhaps most important is a third lesson: that the boost to growth provided by tax cuts and liberalisation need not be spread evenly across the economy. Prescriptions which made sense a generation ago look inappropriate now. Top marginal tax rates are far lower than they were then; further cuts may deliver a smaller boost to growth as a result. Meanwhile, inequality is far higher now than it was in the early 1980s; slashing tax rates on the rich while unravelling recent financial regulation could push economic divisions to unprecedented, politically toxic levels. The global economy could use more fiscal stimulus. A raft of regressive tax cuts from a protectionist-minded American administration is, to put it mildly, a risky way to provide it. 

Prescriptions:処方箋
marginal tax:最高限界税率
unravelling:ほどく
toxic:有害な
raft:たくさんの
regressive:逆累進の
to put it mildly:控えめに言っても

1980年代のレーガノミックスはドル高を伴い、多少の黒字から大幅な赤字となった。貿易制限だけでなく、1985年にはプラザ合意によって、為替を大きく変動させた。1987年には日本に対して半導体への制裁も行った。トランプは速やかな経済成長と高い利息は外国資本をアメリカに惹きつけ、高いドルを喚起し、メキシコペソが10%も暴落したが、彼らにとっての貿易は悪くない。サプライチェーンは高額な関税を好まない。中国との為替においてもBakerの時のような対応はできない。累進課税もかってほど高額所得者の税率が高くないので、あまり効果がない。一方で、所得格差が広がっている。そうした意味での規制緩和とか減税政策は経済を危険なレベルに押し上げてしまうかもしれない。逆累進減税も危ない政策だ。

だから1980年代のレーガノミックスとはだいぶその対応が異なって来るはずだ。経済がグローバル化していて、サプライチェーンがあるから、ドル高になってもかってのようなドル安に持って行くことはできない。かってほど累進税率は高くないので、減税政策もほどほどにする必要がある。規制緩和とか減税政策が過ぎると経済のバブルが起こってしまう。そうした舵取りがこのトランプ政権に求められる。間違いなく経済は好況になるだろう。それとともに、継続した円高が持続されるだろう。

土曜日。昨日の昼は愚妻と恵比寿のローリーズで食事。夜は海野塾。今朝からまた海野塾なので大変だ。今週は二日間続けて、塾がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 07:58コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2016年12月01日

例の80年代の興行 レーガノミックスへのDonald Trumpの試みは元祖のそれよりも金がかかりそうだ。

That Eighties show
Donald Trump’s attempt at Reaganomics will prove costlier than the original
Nov 19th 2016 | From the print edition 

例の80年代の興行
レーガノミックスへのDonald Trumpの試みは元祖のそれよりも金がかかりそうだ。


Gipper:win one for the Gipper 逆境の中で全力を奮い一勝を挙げる◆【語源】ギッパー(the Gipper)は米のフットボール選手ジョージ・ギップ(George Gipp, 1895-1920)の愛称。彼が「将来苦境に陥ったとき『ギッパーのために一勝するんだ』とチームを励ましてください」と監督に言い残して若死にした故事より。

FOR the moment, the policy priorities of the Trump administration-in-waiting are a basket of unknowables. Plans to scrap Obamacare or re-deregulate America’s financial sector, though dear to Republican hearts, are easier to champion on the campaign stump than to implement. A step away from globalism—Donald Trump’s most consistent campaign theme—could make for an awkward opening gambit given pockets of Republican resistance to overt protectionism. Tax cuts and infrastructure spending, on the other hand, look like an easy and unifying win for the new administration. And indeed, market moves since Mr Trump’s victory seem to imply an expectation of a Ronald Reaganesque turn in American fiscal policy; government-bond yields have risen, seemingly in expectation of bigger deficits, faster growth and higher inflation. Yet any resemblance that Mr Trump’s plans may bear to Reaganomics is as much a cause for concern as for optimism. 

FOR the moment:差し当たりは
in-waiting:次期
dear:大事な・貴重な
champion:擁護する
stump:遊説
awkward:きまりの悪い
gambit:序盤の手
pockets:懐
overt:明白な
bear:を受け入れて対処する

The president-elect’s tax proposals are easily the boldest since Reagan’s. Mr Trump’s plan would slash the highest marginal income-tax rates, cut rates of tax on corporate income and on capital gains, and eliminate federal inheritance and gift taxes entirely. According to an analysis by the Tax Policy Centre, a think-tank, the plan would reduce annual federal-tax revenue by about 4% of GDP. In contrast, in the first four years after its implementation the tax reform act of 1981 reduced annual revenue by almost 3% of GDP. At the same time, Mr Trump seems keen on new government spending; his transition-team website refers to $550bn in desired new infrastructure investment. Even if the legislation to emerge from Congress is more moderate, as seems likely, a big dose of tax cuts and new spending appears to be in the offing. 

boldest:大胆な
marginal income-tax rates:marginal (tax) rate 限界税率〘所得の増加分に課す税率〙
inheritance:相続
dose:大量の
in the offing:差し迫って

Stimulus would have its benefits. Higher inflation would be a welcome change from the spectre of deflation that until recently stalked the rich world. Some economists reckon that running the economy “hot”, to the extent that demand outstrips its productive potential, could nurture growth in America’s economic capacity: by bringing workers on the margins of the labour force back into employment, for example. Yet a Reaganomics rerun would almost certainly do more harm than good. The experience of the 1980s suggests three big causes for concern. 

spectre:不安材料・亡霊
stalked:忍び寄る
reckon:推測する
outstrips:しのぐ
nurture:はぐくむ

The first is financial instability. American interest rates in the 1980s were remarkably high: thanks initially to Paul Volcker’s efforts to bring down inflation, and later on to faster American growth and heavy government borrowing (see chart). High interest rates attracted money from abroad, pushing up the value of the dollar: it rose, on a trade-weighted basis, by roughly 40% from 1980 to 1985. As a result, developing economies, including many in Latin America, found themselves with unpayable dollar-denominated loans. Sovereign-debt woes crippled the affected countries’ economies; meanwhile, debt defaults and restructurings saddled big American banks with large losses, pushing some to the brink of insolvency. 

faster:急速な
denominated:で表示されている
woes:苦難
crippled:重大な障害を与える
saddled :負わせる
insolvency:支払不能・破産

Today, most emerging economies hold far less dollar-denominated public debt. Yet vulnerabilities remain. The Federal Reserve has prepared markets for a gradual pace of monetary tightening. Should higher inflation convince the Fed that more interest-rate hikes are needed sooner, many investors in emerging markets could be caught off guard. A bout of chaotic capital flight could threaten shakier banks or induce governments to adopt capital controls. America, which eventually intervened to help manage the Latin American debt crisis, will probably be slower to lend a hand under Mr Trump.

convince:納得させる
caught off guard:〈突然の出来事などが〉A〈人〉の不意をつく, Aを驚かせる
bout:一回きりの
shakier:よろめく
induce :引き起こす
lend a hand:手を貸す

トランプの施策はレーガノミックスに近い。オバマケアをやめて、金融部門の規制を緩和して、TPPをやめて、保護主義に転換し、所得税、相続税だけでなく様々な減税政策を行い景気を刺激し、インフラ投資を行うが、一方ではその結果、財政赤字が増大する。レーガン時代の同じ現象が起こるが、トランプはそれをどう対処するのだろうか。ドル高になり、勝手のように南米の国家が借り入れがドルベースのため返済できなくなった。そのため、貸し出していた銀行が破産の瀬戸際に追い込まれた。

金曜日。昨日は一日、研修資料作成と本書き、歴史勉強。そして夜は元大連のアウトソーシング会社総経理の欒社長会食。今日は海野塾がある。水曜日だったがダブルブッキングをしたために、今日になった。今日のテーマは中国の製造、購買、品質管理、販売ということで広範囲だ。今日になってよかった。範囲が広過ぎる。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 23:57コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2016年11月30日

ロシアはバルカンで問題を起こしているようだ。 しかしながら、独立系のメディがほとんどないが、その真実は闇の中だ。

Russia appears to cause trouble in the Balkans
But with few independent media outlets, the truth can prove elusive
Nov 4th 2016 | Europe

elusive:理解しにくい

ロシアはバルカンで問題を起こしているようだ。
しかしながら、独立系のメディがほとんどないが、その真実は闇の中だ。



ON November 2nd just under 200 paratroopers from Russia and Belarus started a ten-day military drill in Serbia. Meanwhile NATO troops were doing the same in neighbouring Montenegro. But the two opposing drills—the NATO one an exercise in dealing with disasters such as earthquakes, the other one, rather grandiosely dubbed the “Slavic Brotherhood”, slightly more provocative—are hardly the strangest of events to take place in the Western Balkans at the moment. The region, surrounded by European Union countries yet with longstanding links to Russia, increasingly appears to be the scene of worrying tensions between Russia and the West. 

paratroopers:空挺部隊
grandiosely:壮大な・大げさな
dubbed:というあだ名をつける
provocative:挑発的な
strangest:奇妙な
at the moment:ちょうどその時

Rumours that Russia may be meddling in the region flared up last month. On October 16th Montenegro’s authorities said that on election day they had halted a Kremlin-backed coup, which aimed to stall the country’s almost completed accession to NATO. Police rounded up a group of 20 Serbian citizens whom Milo Djukanovic, the outgoing prime minister, said were working on behalf of Russia. Bratislav Dikic, the leader of the alleged coup, argued that he was innocent and that evidence had been planted on him. A former head of Serbia’s gendarmerie, a paramilitary police force, Mr Dikic was sacked last year after reports of his involvement in organised crime (accusations which he also denies). Now he leads a small right-wing, pro-Russia, anti-NATO party in Serbia. Many Montenegrins think the story is nonsense and was concocted to encourage doubters to re-elect the government. 

meddling:干渉する
flared:パッと燃え上がる
accession:加盟
planted:濡れ衣を着せる
gendarmerie:憲兵
paramilitary:準軍事的な
concocted:でっち上げる
doubters:懐疑的な人たち

However on October 24th Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s prime minister, announced that another group in his country, including a number of foreigners, had indeed been plotting against Mr Djukanovic. Several people were arrested. Two days later Nikolai Patrushev, a senior Russian security official, flew in, and according to the Serbian press he secured the release of three arrested Russians. (Both the Russian and Serbian authorities denied this.) Four days earlier 40 tonnes of Serbian food, clothes and medicine destined for Aleppo took off in a Russian plane from Nis in central Serbia, where Russia has a base for humanitarian aid. Meanwhile, the Serbian press and officials have been debating the identity of an alleged CIA agent in their police. 

 identity:正体

To further complicate matters, Mr Vucic himself then seemed to be at risk: on October 30th he was whisked to safety after an arms cache was found in a car close to the home of his parents. Reports seemed to indicate that an assassination attempt was in the offing. Who would want to kill the prime minister was unclear, and details remain murky. Much of what is published in the popular end of the Serbian and Montenegrin press is untrue. One Serbian politician believes the arms cache is linked to a drugs war now raging between Serbian and Montenegrin mafia clans. 

whisked :サッと動く
cache:貯蔵場所
in the offing:差し迫って
murky:不明瞭な

Both countries have moved much closer to the EU and America over the past few years. Mr Djukanovic had hoped to bring Montenegro into NATO (a process which is now close to completion), and into the EU by 2020. But Russia loathes the thought of this country, with its strategically important coastline on the Adriatic Sea, joining the Atlantic alliance. There are plenty of Montenegrin citizens who share Russia’s dismay. Confusingly, Montenegro’s Orthodox Slav majority is divided between those who identify as Serbs, with their traditional friendship with Russia, and ethnic Montenegrins, who see the country as sharply different from Serbia and destined to chart its own course in friendship with the West. It is not uncommon for members of the same family to be on different sides of this argument. Opinion polls suggest that about half of Montenegro’s electorate favours joining NATO, in large part because they fear Serbia. (In 1999 Montenegro was bombed by NATO, albeit much more lightly than Serbia, as part of the campaign to wrest Kosovo from Serb control.) 

loathes:するのをひどく嫌う
dismay:狼狽・失望
ethnic:少数民族の・異教の
wrest :力ずくでとる

In Serbia, Mr Vucic has championed the idea of EU accession, but faces pressure from Russia to co-operate with its Eurasian Economic Union. According to Daniel Sunter, a security analyst in Belgrade, a “war of ideas” is being fought between Russia and the West in Serbia. Russia’s strongest tools are its Serbian-language news outlets, in which, he says, the world is presented as if in a “parallel universe” to that seen by its Western rivals. It is a war which looks likely to escalate. 

parallel universe:SFのような別世界

モンテネグロに対してロシアとNATOとの駆け引きが行われている。ロシアはこの国をEurasian Economic Unionに参加させようとしているが、現在の首相はNATOに加盟しようとしている。クーデターとか彼の暗殺とかの噂もあるようだ。このバルカンは未だにくすぶっているようだ。

木曜日。昨日の昼は愚妻といつものラーメンを食べて、夜は石油会があった。忙しい1日だった。今日はいつもの仕事は日課通りで、夜は欒との会食がある。以前のアウトソーシングの時の総経理で、今は大連で成功して大企業家だ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 22:22コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
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