2018年01月30日

2018年の予測 (30)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (30)

2018年の予測 (30)

Meanwhile, just north of South Africa, Zimbabwe will continue its transition from long-standing President Robert Mugabe in the new year. The process, which got off to a messy start late this year with a military coup, will stabilize over the course of 2018 as the military and political elite rally behind Emmerson Mnangagwa's leadership. Nevertheless, Mnangagwa has a tough road ahead. The new president will have to strike a careful balance to undertake reforming Zimbabwe's broken political and financial systems while maintaining the patronage networks that underpin his rule. 

strike a balanceうまく両立させる
patronage:支持者

To try to resuscitate his country's moribund economy, Mnangagwa will seek financial and political support from China, Zimbabwe's main foreign investor, and from the West. The funding and recognition that Western financial and political institutions would afford his country probably will be too much for Mnangagwa to pass up, and Beijing won't mind much. The Chinese government, after all, has emphasized the need for stability in Zimbabwe, where increased attention from the West probably wouldn't threaten its core interests. 

resuscitate:を復活させる, 復興する.
pass up:〔招待を〕辞退する

As Zimbabwe plunges ahead into the next chapter of its history in 2018, the Democratic Republic of the Congo will stay right where this year left it. President Joseph Kabila, who has been in office since his father's assassination in 2001, has struggled to find an acceptable successor to lead his fractious political alliance. At the same time, a weak opposition and the international community's relative indifference have emboldened his administration to push off the transfer of power for the past two years. Kabila's alliance is poised to continue this strategy in 2018, maintaining its strong-arm tactics against the opposition while keeping up the appearance of cooperation. 

fractious:不安定な
emboldened:を勇気[元気]づける, 励ます
poised:用意ができている

Although the government in Kinshasa has made strides toward improving voter registration throughout the country, it would have to overcome formidable financial and logistical challenges to hold the next general election as planned on Dec. 23, 2018. (The government chose that date only because the United States threatened to mobilize the international community to cut financial support were the vote delayed any longer.) 

formidable:〈問題・相手などが〉手強い, 手に負えそうにない, 難しい
mobilize:を結集する, 集める.

If Kabila doesn't find a suitable successor between now and then, he may resort to desperate measures to protect the fortune his family has acquired during his tenure. Whether he opts to postpone the election further — on the grounds that his administration obviously hasn't prepared to hold a vote — or holds a flawed election that would doubtless favor his alliance, Kabila could provoke backlash from other countries. But more important international crises elsewhere, coupled with fears of instability in and around the Democratic Republic of the Congo, will stay their hands should Kabila try to delay the election once more. 

stay their hands:自制する 〔相手を打とうとする〕自分の手を抑える
coupled with:と結びつく 

Compared with the stunted transition in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola's move away from its own long-standing leader, President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, will proceed apace in 2018. Dos Santos' successor, Joao Lourenco, already has begun to chip away at the former ruling family's financial empire since taking office earlier this year. In the coming year, he will continue and expand this campaign, appointing technocrats to key positions in the Angolan government to try to reinforce his authority. Lourenco also will pursue additional probes into the excesses of his predecessor's administration and may push for minor institutional reforms with help from important factions in the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola party. 

stunted:〈成長・発達など〉を妨げる, 阻害する; …の成長を妨げる.
chip away at:〜を少しずつ削り取る[かじり取る]、徐々に崩す

Zimbabweのムガベに変わって、Mnangagwaが大統領になりましたが、彼はムガベと同じ仲間なので、ここに書いてあるようにはならないでしょう。改革は無理でしょうね。コンゴ民主共和国のJoseph Kabilaも政権が長すぎるので、西欧から交代を迫られているのですが、身内に交代させることができる人材がいないので、困っているようです。アメリカが援助を削減しようとしてるので、その前に選挙をしたい意向がありますが、候補者が見つからない。アンゴラはJose Eduardo dos Santosの後継者にJoao Lourencoが決まったので、小規模の改革を行うでしょう。

水曜日。今日は海野塾があります。ではまた明日。


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swingby_blog at 20:39コメント(0) 

2018年01月29日

2018年の予測 (29)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (29)

2018年の予測 (29)

Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It’s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe’s earliest explorers — and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. 

study in:格好の例, 典型例
captured:〈人の心・注意など〉を引き付ける, とりこにする

Sub-Sahara:アフリカのうち、サハラ砂漠より南の地域。アフリカのうち北アフリカ以外。サブサハラ、サハラ以南のアフリカ。

And yet despite the region’s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges — transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption — that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.

endemic:固有の 特有の【特定の地域・集団に】よく見られる 

Section Highlights
Southern Africa will undergo a sweeping political transformation next year as South Africa, Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Angola try to move away from their long-entrenched leadership. Despite his health issues, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari could seek a second term in 2019, though he may have trouble holding his party together in an increasingly competitive political environment.

undergo:〈変化など〉を経る
entrenched:〈意志・習慣などが〉強固な, 変わることのない
his health issues:2017/08/19 - Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari returned from more than three months of sick leave in London to a nation agitated by a sluggish economy, re-emerging ethnic tensions and resurgent attacks by Islamist militants in the northeast. 

Stubbornly low energy prices will continue to constrain Nigeria's finances, but as other sources of economic pressure ease, the government may have the means to offer some concessions to militants in the oil-producing Niger Delta region.

concessions:譲歩

As the incipient Group of Five (G5) Sahel Force struggles to address persistent terrorist threats, the U.S. military will deploy armed drones over Niger as a new way to combat militancy in the vast, ungoverned lands of southern Libya and the Sahel.

incipient:始まりの; 〘医〙初期の

G5 Sahel: an institutional framework for coordination of regional cooperation in development policies and security matters in central Africa. It was formed on 16 February 2014 at a summit of five Sahel countries: Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. It adopted a convention of establishment on 19 December 2014, and is permanently seated in Mauritania. The coordination is organised on different levels. The military aspect is coordinated by the respective countries' Chiefs of Staff. The purpose of G5 Sahel is to strengthen the bond between economic development and security,and together battle the threat of jihadist organisations operating in the region (AQIM, MUJWA, Al-Mourabitoun, Boko Haram).
Sahel:サハラ砂漠南縁部に広がる半乾燥地域である。主に西アフリカについて用いられるが、場合によりスーダンやアフリカの角の諸地域を含める事もある 
Group of Five: 《The 〜》主要5カ国◇米国・英国・ドイツ・フランス・日本 ここではこの意味ではない。

Southern Africa Grapples With Political Change
In 2018, key countries in Southern Africa will undergo leadership transitions — some for the first time in decades. Though the process will play out differently from country to country, each transfer of power is bound to bring change to domestic, regional and international politics. 

South African President Jacob Zuma is reckoning with the potential pitfalls of ceding control over his country's ruling African National Congress (ANC) party to a new leader. During the Dec. 16-20 party congress, the ANC selected Zuma's successor, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, who will set the political and economic course of the ANC — and, by extension, of South Africa — for the next several years. Ramaphosa, as the new party head, will also likely assume the presidency in Zuma's wake, either in 2019, when he is constitutionally mandated to hand off the office, or earlier, should he resign before then. 

pitfalls:〔地面に掘った〕落とし穴
assume:〈役割・責任・任務など〉を引き受ける(undertake)
wake:航跡, (船などが通った後の)波の跡  (物の)通った跡
hand off:〔ボールを見方に〕手渡す

In the run-up to the convention, Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the president's former wife, vied to take over the party presidency. Ramaphosa's victory signals a departure in the ANC from Zuma's pro-labor, ethnic Zulu faction, and its populist economic policies and growing reputation for graft and mismanagement. The change bodes well for South Africa's business climate, which has weathered dramatic ups and downs throughout Zuma's tenure. Ramaphosa, for instance, could help patch things up between South Africa's political leadership and the Finance Ministry, whose chief Zuma summarily fired earlier this year during a Cabinet reshuffle. 

convention:大会
bodes well for:にとって良い前兆である.
weathered: 〈嵐・困難など〉を無事に乗り切る, うまく切り抜ける
patch things up with :〈人〉と仲直りする.
be summarily dismissed:即刻解雇される.

But in the meantime, the deputy president's rise through the party ranks promises to do little for South Africa's structural economic deficiencies, including high unemployment, a rigid labor market and collapsing education standards. The approaching elections in 2019 will compel the ANC to come together as a party and increase welfare in one form or another to shore up its support among South Africa's impoverished black majority, a crucial voting bloc. In addition, Ramaphosa's win could make for a bumpier transition as the next election draws near, should the new party leader decide to push for Zuma's dismissal from the presidency. 

shore up:補強する 支える
impoverished :非常に貧乏な
bumpier :行程・道のりがガタガタ揺れる; 〈人生が〉浮き沈みのある, 困難の多い

サブサハラは今年は大きく変化する年だ。テロ、人口の急増、貧困、腐敗。そうした課題を抱えている。テロに関してはBurkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Nigerの5各国のG5 Sahelが協力して行動をするだろう。そして、ジンバブエのムガベ、南アフリカのズマがそのポジションを降りる。南アフリカはラマンポーザがズマの元夫人を破って、大統領になるだろうが、改革が期待できる。

火曜日。ではまた明日。


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2018年01月28日

2018年の予測 (28)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (28)

2018年の予測 (28)

The India-China Rivalry Intensifies
Pakistan isn't the only foreign policy challenge concerning to India. The strategic rivalry between India and China threatened to give way to a military confrontation this year during a 73-day standoff over Bhutan's disputed Doklam plateau. Though both sides eventually stood down, the underlying problem will follow them into the next year. China's growing influence in South Asia — traditionally New Delhi's sphere of influence — has made India uneasy and has breathed new life into the border disputes between the two.

give way to:〈事〉に取って代わられる, 変化する.
stood down:警戒を解く
breathe new life into the Cabinet with:〜で内閣に新たな活気を与える

The desire to counter China's growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region will drive India to deepen its security partnership with the United States and Japan, which share the same ambition, in 2018. (Australia may join the effort, too, reviving the quadrilateral dialogue format.) At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration will maintain its economic diplomacy with the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to try to catch up with China on regional trade and investment. 

assertiveness:しっかり自己主張する, 積極的な; 断定的な; 独断的な.
catch up with:【仕事などの】遅れを取り戻す

Nevertheless, the competition for international influence between China and India will intensify in 2018. Both countries will move forward, albeit slowly, with infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka, including the Hambantota and Trincomalee ports, though domestic opposition could hamper the Sri Lankan government's efforts to help keep the ventures on track. Elsewhere in South Asia, however, Beijing seems to have the edge over New Delhi. 

Hambantota and Trincomalee ports:news Jan.16th 2018: In signing off around 70 per cent of the Hambantota Port holdings to a front company of the Chinese Government, as against the originally proposed 80 per cent, the Maithiri-Ranil leadership has done more than what predecessor President Mahinda Rajapaksa had done in his time. Whatever little might have been left open then have been sealed, and for good, and in China’s favour.
keep the meeting on track:ミーティングを順調に進める
This new model has the [an] edge over its rivals.:この新機種は競合相手に対して優位に立っている

Nepal, for instance, will continue courting Chinese investment through Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, now that the Left Alliance has secured a majority in Nepalese parliament. Bangladesh, likewise, will prioritize getting more of the $24 billion worth of infrastructure projects that China has proposed there underway in 2018, regardless of who wins next year's national elections. In an effort to narrow the gap with Beijing, New Delhi also has offered Bangladesh a $4.5 billion line of credit for infrastructure development. 

They have successfully courted support in America.:彼らはアメリカの支持をうまく取り付けた.

Back at home, the Indian prime minister and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will carry on with implementing the Goods and Service Tax, a sweeping tax reform that passed in 2017. The ambitious measure will likely be Modi's last major reform in 2018 as his administration turns its attention to elections the following year. To shore up his chances of winning a second term in office, Modi will put off politically sensitive land and labor reforms that could challenge his image as a populist candidate. 

shore up:補強する 支える
challenge:〈意見・考え方など〉について異議を唱える, …を疑問視する

His administration will focus instead on a $32 billion bank recapitalization program to reinvigorate private investment, along with its efforts to bring the the new tax scheme into effect. Ahead of the national vote in 2019, state elections this year in Karnataka will offer an idea of how well Modi's administration is faring in the face of its failure to create manufacturing jobs on a mass scale. Transforming India into a global manufacturing hub was a pillar of Modi's platform, and his inability so far to deliver on the promise is his greatest shortcoming as his first term in office winds down. 

recapitalization:〈企業など〉の)資本構造を変更する. 資本増強
reinvigorate:の活気を取り戻させる.
faring:How did you fare in high school? 高校では順調にやっていましたか.
winds down:活動などが徐々に終わりに向かう;

インドと中国の関係が逼迫している。インドはアメリカ、日本、オーストラリアを仲間に引き入れようとしている。中国は南アジアに地場を求めて進出してきていて、スリランカの港開発、バングラデッシュ、ネパールへの一帯一路の一環としての投資攻勢がある。インドもそれに対応しようとしているが、支援金額の桁が一桁少ない。モディは来年の選挙に向けて国内の地固めも忙しい。労働法改革は人気を落とすので、選挙前は行わない。今までの改革の成果はあまりでていないので、気が許せない。


月曜日。今日はいつもの仲間との会食がある。鳥徳だ。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトはあと三日で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed 3 days later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.

swingby_blog at 22:45コメント(0) 

2018年の予測 (27)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (27)

2018年の予測 (27)


12Pakistan: Friends, Rivals and Others
Even without the mounting tension between the United States and Pakistan, though, conclusive peace talks in Afghanistan would be unlikely in 2018. The addition of 6,000 U.S. troops to the war-torn country, mostly in an advisory capacity, means that little will change on the battlefield. At most, the extra manpower will help achieve a more manageable stalemate between the Taliban and the Afghan military as the war drags on for a 17th year. 

stalemate:(議論などの)行き詰まり, 膠着状態(deadlock)

Pakistan: A Military With a Country 
Pakistan's military, meanwhile, will have more on its agenda in 2018 than the conflict in Afghanistan. Beyond its dominant role in Pakistan's foreign policy, the military also plays a powerful part in domestic affairs. Its plan to nudge militants into the political mainstream through the formation of a new political party, the Milli Muslim League, will get a boost next year in the run-up to national elections. Hafiz Saeed — the accused mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai attacks recently freed from house arrest — has announced that the party will run in 2018 legislative elections. 

dominant:〈人・物などが〉(最も)有力な, 支配的な, 優勢な, 目立つ; 主要な
nudge:(注意を促すために)〈人・体の一部〉をそっと肘で突く[こづく]; (軽く)…を押す
get [receive] a boost:元気をもらう.
run-up:準備期間

Hafiz Muhammad Saeed: (born 1948)  a Pakistani Islamist militant, who is a co-founder of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the chief of Jama'at-ud-Da'wah (JuD), UN-designated terrorist organisations operating mainly from Pakistan. Saeed is an internationally designated terrorist even though he is influential in Pakistan among certain religious groups. In April 2012, the United States announced a bounty of $10 million on Saeed, for his alleged role in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks in which 164 civilians were killed including 6 American citizens, but there have been protests in Pakistan against the US bounty.

bounty:懸賞金

India considers Saeed as one of its most wanted terrorists because of his ties with Lashkar-e-Taiba and his alleged involvement in attacks in India such as the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, 2006 Mumbai train bombings and the 2001 Indian Parliament attack. Saeed is listed on the NIA Most Wanted list and India has banned his organisation as a terrorist organisation. The United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Russia and Australia have also banned Lashkar-e-Taiba. Since 2008, various Indian ministers have demanded that Saeed be handed over but there is no extradition treaty between the two countries. Saeed states that he has no links with LeT and that India has no evidence proving its allegations.


Saeed, who plans to include the issue of Kashmir's secession from India in his campaign, will serve as another point of contention in Pakistan's relationship with the United States and in its rivalry with India. In addition, his rise as a candidate will reflect the resurgence of the religious right in Pakistani politics. The movement will have an unusually strong presence in the 2018 elections thanks to the vulnerability of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). 

contention:論争
resurgence:再起; 再燃; 再生, 復活 

As election season gets underway, the ruling party will face a leadership crisis. Ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, currently facing trial on corruption charges, may be sentenced to prison once the proceedings conclude, leaving competing factions of his party to vie to become the PML-N's candidate for prime minister. The power struggle and its probable outcome also stand to benefit the military. 

vie:競う, 張り合う(compete)

The likely victory of Sharif's brother, Shahbaz Sharif, in the succession battle would be a welcome development for the military, since he favors a more accommodating stance toward it than did his brother, its most vociferous critic. In the meantime, moreover, the strife in the PML-N will weaken Pakistan's most powerful party, giving the military even more clout in Pakistani politics. The boost will enable it to stand firm on its foreign policy, including Islamabad's continued support for the Taliban and enduring rivalry with India. Combined with the stronger Islamist component in Pakistan's politics, the emboldened military will further aggravate ties with Washington and New Delhi alike. 

accommodating:協力的な, 好意的な 
vociferous:大声で叫ぶ, どなる; 〈主張・議論などが〉声高な.
clout:(経済・政治における)勢力, 権威, 影響力.
emboldened:を勇気[元気]づける, 励ます
aggravate:悪化させる

アメリカとパキスタンとの高まる緊張がなかったとしても、今年はアフガニスタンの平和的な話し合いはないだろう。アメリカが6000人の兵士を増派しても、何も変化はしないだろう。パキスタンの軍部は更に力を得て来ることにある。インドとアメリカが懸賞金をかけているHafiz Saeedが釈放され、政治に参加してくる。彼は2008年のムンバイのテロの首謀者だとみなされている。Nawaz Sharif元首相が汚職で公判中なので、その弟が立候補するだろう。彼は兄よりも軍部との関係は良い。パキスタン軍は更に、アメリカとインドとの関係を悪化させるだろう。

日曜日。今日はこれまで。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトはあと3日で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで海野塾通信を送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.

swingby_blog at 09:36コメント(0) 

2018年01月26日

2018年の予測 (26)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (26)

2018年の予測 (26)

South Asia
Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region’s great population centers. India is the region’s dominant country, home to the world’s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.

Islam informs every aspect of his behavior.:イスラム教は彼の行動のすべてに影響を与えている
contentious:議論を呼ぶ
ill-defined:あいまいな
dominant:〈人・物などが〉(最も)有力な, 支配的な, 優勢な, 目立つ; 主要な
flashpoints:〔戦闘・紛争の〕火種
testament:証拠, 証明
militancy:(政治的・社会的変化等を目指して)力[圧力]を用いること; 好戦的なこと.

Section Highlights
The slow deterioration of the U.S.-Pakistani relationship over their differences in Afghanistan in 2018 will push Islamabad to develop stronger relationships with Iran and Russia, while Washington solidifies its partnership with New Delhi.
Negotiations to resolve the war in Afghanistan probably won't materialize next year as Pakistan continues its support for the Taliban -- and as the United States sends 6,000 more troops to the conflict.
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's corruption trial will weaken the country's ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party and reinforce the military's political power.
Focusing on his bid for re-election in 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to refrain from introducing politically sensitive land and labor reforms next year.

solidifies:〈関係などを)強固にする
refrain:I will refrain from comment(ing). コメントは差し控えたいと思います

この南アジアは地政学の課題が集約している。インドと中国との国境問題、インドとパキスタンとの関係。こうした問題がこの地域の発展を阻害している。アメリカとパキスタンとの関係は良くない。パキスタンはアフガニスタンのタリバンを支援していて、イランとロシアに近づいていく。アメリカはアフガニスタンに更に6000人の兵士を投入する。パキスタンは前首相のシャリフの汚職の件で、与党が弱体化していき、軍部の力が増していく。モディは来年の選挙に向けて、改革の手を緩めていく。

The War in Afghanistan Drives the U.S. and Pakistan Apart
The United States and Pakistan are at a crossroads. The security partnership between the two countries — the most consequential foreign powers involved in the 16-year war in Afghanistan — took a turn for the worse this year. As the Taliban-led insurgency hammered away at the U.S.-backed Afghan military, President Donald Trump cautioned the Pakistani government to stop harboring the militants battling NATO forces in the longest-running U.S. war. 

consequential:重大な

The government in Islamabad, however, has too much at stake to heed Washington's warning. Projecting power into neighboring Afghanistan through the militant groups it supports is part of Pakistan's long-standing geopolitical strategy to try to maintain a sympathetic government in Kabul that will honor the border between their two states and resist India's advances. The politically powerful Pakistani military understands that the issue is a matter of national security. Consequently, Pakistan will continue its support for the Taliban, at the expense of its relationship with the United States.

at stake:〔名誉・評判などが〕危うくなって、危機にひんして[さらされて]
heed:〈忠告・警告など〉に注意を払う, …に耳を傾けて従う, …を傾聴する.
sympathetic:好意的な

パキスタンはタリバンが政権を取ればインドとの問題に対しての緩衝国にアフガニスタンがなってくれるという戦略がある。

Even so, the countries will maintain their defense cooperation — however begrudgingly — in 2018. Washington probably will avoid taking action that would further strain its relationship with Pakistan, since it can't afford to increase its security burden in Afghanistan when the situation on the Korean Peninsula demands so much of its attention. But even if it defers punitive measures such as revoking Pakistan's non-NATO major ally status in 2018, the U.S. administration will continue to ramp up pressure on the South Asian country. Washington, for example, could sanction members of the Pakistani government and increase the pace of drone strikes in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas in northwestern Pakistan in an effort to destroy militant havens in the restive region. Already, the Trump administration has announced that it would cut aid to Pakistan by over one-third next year. 

begrudgingly:しぶしぶ
revoking:〈免許・法律など〉を無効にする, 廃止する.
restive:御しがたい
cut aid to Pakistan by over one-third next year.:ヘイリー米国連大使は2018年1月2日の国連本部での記者会見で、米政府が2億5500万ドル(約287億円)規模の「軍事支援」凍結に踏み切ると述べていた。トランプ氏は2018年1月1日、今年初となるツイッター投稿で「米国はおろかにも過去15年間、パキスタンに330億ドル(約3兆7000億円)以上を支援してきたが、パキスタンは米国をだましてばかりだ」と非難していた。

Pakistan will respond in kind. As its relationship with Washington cools, Islamabad will enhance its diplomatic and security outreach to Russia and Iran. The two regional powers, after all, share Pakistan's interest in supporting the Taliban as a way to counter NATO's influence, and that of transnational jihadist groups such as the Islamic State, in Afghanistan. Yet these partnerships can go only so far. Islamabad's prominent, if largely symbolic, role in the Saudi-led Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition will limit its ties to Tehran. Similarly, Moscow's relationship with India, its largest arms customer, will constrain the budding defense alliance between Russia and Pakistan. 

in kind:同じもので, 同じように〈応える・仕返しするなど〉
constrain:制約する
budding:始まったばかりの

アフガニスタンでのアメリカの参画によって、パキスタンとの関係があったし、パキスタンはロシアとイランに接近するが、ロシアはインドが武器の購入国なので、パキスタンとの距離を置かざるをえない。アメリカはあままで、パキスタンに軍事支援をしてきたが、凍結することにあるだろう。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。4月からの放送のテスト録画を始める。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.

swingby_blog at 18:47コメント(0) 

2018年01月25日

2018年の予測 (25)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (25)

2018年の予測 (25)

An EU Foreign Policy Based on Free Trade
Amid a surge of protectionism around the globe that has clouded the future of international trade, the European Union will seek out new free trade agreements. Though the bloc signed a free trade deal with Japan in late 2017, the parties will have to separately negotiate the issue of investment protection in 2018. At the same time, the European Union will try to forge ahead in its talks with Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, India, Indonesia and the Common Market of the South, known as Mercosur. 

clouded:に暗い影を投じる.
forge:(急速に)ピッチを上げる[上げて進む](ahead)

Within these negotiations, issues like agriculture, investment protection and the flow of private data to third-party countries could become sticking points. The process of reaching final deals will be lengthy, likely lasting well beyond next year, but Brussels will stay committed to expanding its collection of trade deals. However, it will also keep looking for ways to better vet non-EU investors that seek to buy companies that are part of sensitive or strategic sectors in member states. 

sticking point:意見の食い違う点, 交渉を難航させる[問題を困難にする]原因.
vet:〈志願者・文書・計画など〉を(詳しく)調べる, 審査する.

In the meantime, the European Union's relationship with Russia will remain distant. Moscow will try to exploit (and at times, create) friction among the bloc's members with the tools at its disposal, including pipeline politics and propaganda. The European Union, for its part, will continue to argue that it will lift sanctions against Russia only if Moscow fully complies with the peace deal in Ukraine. Because the sanctions are already a point of contention in Europe, the bloc probably won't expand them, though it may prolong the punitive measures if conditions on the ground in Ukraine do not improve. Brussels will also denounce Moscow's attempts to interfere in European politics while searching for ways to counter Russian propaganda and cyberattacks. Its success on this front, however, will be only modest. 

at its disposal:の自由になる(ように)
contention:論争
on the ground:現場での

保守主義の動きが世界に出てきているが、EUは自由貿易を推進していく。域外の諸国との貿易協定を進めていく。その際に、EUを保護しなければならないような項目はたくさんあるが、時間をかけて交渉していく。ロシアに対しての制裁は継続するが、拡大はしない。またロシアからの介入に対しては気を配っていくが、大きな被害にはならない。

Europe will face a foreign policy challenge to the south as well. Next year, the European Union will study options for addressing immigration from Africa and the Middle East, in part by reforming its migration rules. The most controversial decision the bloc must make is whether to implement a mechanism to more proportionally distribute asylum seekers across the Continent — a move that, in the end, it is unlikely to make. 

Central and Eastern European Migration Routes
Meanwhile, the European Union will work with migrants' countries of origin to try to prevent people from leaving their homes in the first place and to disrupt human-trafficking organizations that funnel migrants into Europe. The number of people crossing into Italy from Libya fell in 2017, but the Continent's migration troubles aren't over. After all, Libya remains politically unstable, and it may not be able to consistently work with Europe to stem the flow of migrants across its borders as its internal turmoil persists. Moreover, migrants have begun using new departure points, such as Tunisia and Algeria, en route to Europe.

funnel:〈人・物〉をじょうご(のように狭い所)に通すように流す[注ぐ, 進める]
stem:〈へた・茎・花柄など〉を取り除く.44





















Against this backdrop, the European Union will be eager to preserve its migration deal with Turkey in hopes of blocking floods of people from entering its territory. To that end, Brussels will promise Ankara financial assistance and stronger trade ties, including an update to the existing customs union agreement between them. But if the Turkish government continues to crack down on the media and opposition at home, Europe will increase political and financial pressure against it, adding further strain to their migration agreement. 

アフリカや中東からの難民問題は依然として解決しない。リビアが混乱したままだし、最近はチュニジア、アルジェリアのルートもでてきた。また、トルコのジャーナリストへの取締が依然として続くのであれば、トルコとの難民の話し合いは財政支援も含めて、決着できないだろう。

金曜日。いよいよ今年第一冊目の本の最終化だ。今日は早稲田の白木先生の会合がある。ではまた明日。


ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.

swingby_blog at 21:10コメント(0) 
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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