マレーシアの首相はもうじき選挙を行うだろう。 横領に関与しているもかかわらず、彼はおそらく勝つだろう。

Malaysia’s prime minister will call an election soon
Despite being implicated in embezzlement, he may well win
Nov 9th 2017 | KUALA LUMPUR


be implicated in the conspiracy:陰謀に関与している

THE opposition, naturally, has been making hay out of the goings-on at 1MDB, a Malaysian state-owned investment fund. Over the past few months it took a road show, complete with snazzy slides on shell companies and international transfers, to rural areas to explain how almost $4bn of taxpayers’ money was siphoned out of the firm—quite a lot of it, American investigators say, by Najib Razak, the prime minister. But in the two years since the scandal first broke, Mr Najib (pictured) has worked assiduously to bury it, while purging opponents and distracting voters. He now looks ready to call—and win—an election. 

naturally:予想されるように, 当然(ながら)
hay:make hay out of…を上手に利用する
road show:巡回興行[公演・展示・宣伝]〈和製英語〉ロードショー◆【標準英語】preview
snazzy:〈服・車などが〉明るく派手な; しゃれた.
shell company:ペーパーカンパニー
distracting:人の気を散らす[そらす, 紛らす]

Mr Najib does not dispute that roughly $700m entered his personal bank accounts shortly before the previous election, in 2013. But he says it was a gift from an unnamed Saudi royal, and that most of it was returned. (The donor, Mr Najib’s allies say, was Prince Turki bin Abdullah, who was recently arrested for alleged corruption.) America’s Justice Department, however, says the money was looted from 1MDB. 

Nancy disputed the policeman's account of the incident.:ナンシーはその事件についての警官の説明に異を唱えた

America, Switzerland and Singapore have conducted investigations into 1MDB. In theory, Malaysia has too. But the only person convicted in Malaysia in relation to the scandal is an opposition politician who leaked parts of the auditor-general’s investigation because the government declared it an official secret. Mr Najib fired the attorney-general for pursuing the matter, and then other senior members of his party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), when they protested. 

Although prosecutors show no interest in the billions stolen from 1MDB, they are always on the lookout for misdeeds by the opposition. Anwar Ibrahim, a leader of Pakatan Harapan (PH), an opposition coalition, has been put behind bars for sodomy (a crime in Malaysia), on flimsy evidence. Later this month the government will oppose a suit calling for his release. 

lookout: keep a (sharp) lookout for を(しっかり)見張る, (十分)気をつける.

Meanwhile another senior figure in PH, Lim Guan Eng, the chief minister of the state of Penang, conveniently faces two sets of corruption charges (he is accused of buying a house at an artificially low price). Two leaders of an opposition party in the state of Sabah, set up by a former vice-president of UMNO sacked as a minister for complaining about 1MDB, have also been scooped up in a recent corruption probe. 

scooped:scoop out the flesh with a spoon スプーンで果肉を取り出す.

Piety before propriety
Meanwhile UMNO has positioned itself as the defender of Islam, the faith of the Malay majority. This worries ethnic-Chinese and -Indian voters, the largest minority groups. Mr Najib is courting a conservative Islamic party as a possible new member of his ruling coalition, the Barisan Nasional. It supports public caning and other harsh punishments. 

Piety:敬虔 信心
courting:They have successfully courted support in America. 彼らはアメリカの支持をうまく取り付けた.

When a launderette in the state of Johor put up a sign in September that read “For Muslim customers only”, Mr Najib, the head of a multi-ethnic coalition, kept mum. Instead, the local sultan, who is the head of the Muslim faith in the state, rebuked the owners for discriminating against minorities. Last month he and the country’s eight other sultans, who take it in turns to serve as head of state, released an unusual statement deploring growing Muslim intolerance as “beyond all acceptable standards of decency”. 

launderette:laundromat コインランドリー
mum:Keep [Stay] mum about our plot. 我々のたくらみのことは黙っていろ.
deploring:The government deplored the bombing. 政府はその爆破事件を非難した
decency:common decency 社会常識, 良識

Gerrymandering will also help Mr Najib. At the last election, although the opposition won 51% of the vote, it secured only 40% of the 222 seats in parliament. The election commission, with government-appointed members, has proposed boundaries for the next contest which will see even more of those who usually vote for the opposition, such as the ethnic-Chinese, crammed into huge constituencies, many of them urban. 

crammed:The room is crammed with magazines and books. その部屋には雑誌や本がびっしり詰まっている.

In practice this means their votes count for less than those of Malays in sparsely populated rural constituencies, who tend to favour UMNO. The state of Selangor, controlled by an opposition party, has challenged the new boundaries; a decision in the past week by the federal court allows them to stand everywhere else. 

Mr Najib is also showering voters with cash. The 280bn ringgit ($66bn) budget for 2018, announced late last month, cuts taxes for more than 2m people. It also provides bonuses to some 1.6m civil servants which will be paid in two instalments—the first in January and the second in June—with the election likely to fall between the two. Billions will be set aside for rural infrastructure, too. 

Set aside time for your children. : 子どもたちと過ごす時間を確保してください。

Not everything is going the prime minister’s way. The PH coalition has been boosted by the inclusion of a new party, Bersatu, founded by Mahathir Mohamad, a former prime minister and head of UMNO for more than two decades. It signed up around 200,000 members in just a few months. 

Mahathir Mohamad recently is against Najib for his embezzlement.

Confronted with a strengthening opposition, Mr Najib might choose to hold the election sooner, rather than later. But a vote in the next two months would probably coincide with seasonal flooding in rural areas, which might both suppress the vote and make the voters who do turn out irritable. A short delay could avoid this. But the prime minister will not want to wait for long, given that Mr Anwar may walk free as early as April. The sweet spot may come after Chinese New Year in February. For those opposed to Mr Najib, however, the outcome may be bitter. 




swingby_blog at 08:06コメント(0) 


アメリカのグローバルへの影響は衰えてきている。 アジアの大統領の歴訪はアメリカが内向きになっている事実を隠すことは出来ないし、アメリカだけでなく世界に損害を与えている。

America’s global influence has dwindled under Donald Trump
A presidential tour of Asia cannot hide the fact that America has turned inward, hurting itself and the world
Nov 9th 2017


A YEAR ago this week Donald Trump was elected president. Many people predicted that American foreign policy would take a disastrous turn. Mr Trump had suggested that he would scrap trade deals, ditch allies, put a figurative bomb under the rules-based global order and drop literal ones willy-nilly. NATO was “obsolete”, he said; NAFTA was “the worst trade deal maybe ever”; and America was far too nice to foreigners. “In the old days when you won a war, you won a war. You kept the country,” he opined, adding later that he would “bomb the shit out of” Islamic State (IS) and “take the oil”. 


So far, Mr Trump’s foreign policy has been less awful than he promised. Granted, he has pulled America out of the Paris accord, making it harder to curb climate change, and abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a big trade deal. However, he has not retreated pell-mell into isolationism. He has not quit NATO; indeed, some of America’s eastern European allies prefer his tough-talk to the cool detachment of Barack Obama. He has not started any wars. 

look awful:具合が悪そうだ; 見た目がひどい
Granted:Granted (that) it is true, I still cannot support it. それが正しいとしても, 支持することはできない
pell-mell:あわてて[た]; 自制できずに[ない]; めちゃくちゃに[な].
detachment:冷静(さ), 超然, 公平無私; ≪…に対する≫ 無関心, 無感覚

He has stepped up America’s defence of Afghanistan’s beleaguered government, and helped Iraq recapture cities from IS. In the parts of the world to which he pays little attention, such as Africa, an understaffed version of the previous administration’s policy continues on autopilot. As Mr Trump makes a 12-day visit to Asia, it is hard to dismiss him as a man wholly disengaged from the world. 

beleaguered:困難[非難, 反対]に遭っている
on automatic pilot:〈動作などが〉(慣れなどのため)自動的に動いて, 惰性で.

Many people find reassurance in the sober, capable military men who surround him (see article). His chief of staff, his defence secretary and his national security adviser all understand the horrors of war and will stop him from doing anything rash, the argument goes. Optimists even speculate that he might emulate Ronald Reagan, by shaking up the diplomatic establishment, restoring America’s military muscle and projecting such strength abroad that a frightened, overstretched North Korea will crumble like the Soviet Union. Others confidently predict that even if he causes short-term damage to America’s standing in the world, Mr Trump will be voted out in 2020 and things will return to normal.

eassurance:安心; 安心させる言葉, 励まし
emulate :見習う
crumble:ぼろぼろに崩れる, 粉々になる

Reagan, he ain’t
All this is wishful thinking. On security, Mr Trump has avoided some terrible mistakes. He has not started a needless row with China over Taiwan’s ambiguous status, as he once threatened to do. Congress and the election-hacking scandal prevented him from pursuing a grand bargain with Vladimir Putin that might have left Russia’s neighbours at the Kremlin’s mercy. And he has apparently coaxed China to exert a little more pressure on North Korea to stop expanding its nuclear arsenal. 

ambiguous:an ambiguous position 不明確な立場.
grand bargain:重要な取引
at As mércy:Aのなすがままに(なって), Aの言いなりに(なって), Aに左右されて
coaxed :を(穏やかに)説得する
exert:They exerted strong pressure on me to cancel the contract. 彼らは私にその契約を破棄するよう圧力をかけた

However, he has made some serious errors, too, such as undermining the deal with Iran that curbs its ability to make nuclear bombs. And his instincts are atrocious. He imagines he has nothing to learn from history. He warms to strongmen, such as Mr Putin and Xi Jinping. His love of generals is matched by a disdain for diplomats—he has gutted the State Department, losing busloads of experienced ambassadors.

warms:I warmed to Ben from the beginning . 最初から僕はベンに好印象をもった.
gutted:の根幹を崩す, …を骨抜きにする.

His tweeting is no joke: he undermines and contradicts his officials without warning, and makes reckless threats against Kim Jong Un, whose paranoia needs no stoking. Furthermore, Mr Trump has yet to be tested by a crisis. Level-headed generals may advise him, but he is the commander-in-chief, with a temperament that alarms friend and foe alike. 

stoking:〈欲望・怒りなど〉をかき立てる, あおる, …に火をつける(up).

On trade, he remains wedded to a zero-sum view of the world, in which exporters “win” and importers “lose”. (Are the buyers of Ivanka Trump-branded clothes and handbags, which are made in Asia, losers?) Mr Trump has made clear that he favours bilateral deals over multilateral ones, because that way a big country like America can bully small ones into making concessions. The trouble with this approach is twofold. 


First, it is deeply unappealing to small countries, which by the way also have protectionist lobbies to overcome. Second, it would reproduce the insanely complicated mishmash of rules that the multilateral trade system was created to simplify and trim. The Trump team probably will not make a big push to disrupt global trade until tax reform has passed through Congress. But when and if that happens, all bets are off—NAFTA is still in grave peril.

insanely:狂って; 異常に; 無茶に.
mishmash:ごたまぜ, 寄せ集め; 有象無象(の輩).
all bets are off:賭が中止になる 全てが白紙に戻る、全てが帳消しになる

Ideas matter
Perhaps the greatest damage that Mr Trump has done is to American soft power. He openly scorns the notion that America should stand up for universal values such as democracy and human rights. Not only does he admire dictators; he explicitly praises thuggishness, such as the mass murder of criminal suspects in the Philippines. He does so not out of diplomatic tact, but apparently out of conviction. This is new. Previous American presidents supported despots for reasons of cold-war realpolitik. (“He’s a bastard, but he’s our bastard,” as Harry Truman is reputed to have said of an anti-communist tyrant in Nicaragua.) Mr Trump’s attitude seems more like: “He’s a bastard. Great!” 

scorns:Ann scorned the proposal. アンはその申し入れを受け入れることを拒んだ.
tact:(人の感情を害さない)機転, 気配り, そつのなさ
conviction:(確固たる)信念, 確信(belief) 
bastard:いやなやつ, ひどいやつ
reputed:She's reputed to be the best doctor. 彼女は最高の医師だとの評判だ.

This repels America’s liberal allies, in Europe, East Asia and beyond. It emboldens autocrats to behave worse, as in Saudi Arabia this week, where the crown prince’s dramatic political purges met with Mr Trump’s blessing (see article). It makes it easier for China to declare American-style democracy passe, and more tempting for other countries to copy China’s autocratic model (see article). 


The idea that things will return to normal after a single Trump term is too sanguine. The world is moving on. Asians are building new trade ties, often centred on China. Europeans are working out how to defend themselves if they cannot rely on Uncle Sam. And American politics are turning inward: both Republicans and Democrats are more protectionist now than they were before Mr Trump’s electoral triumph. 

sanguine:Max remains sanguine about the prospects of his company. マックスは会社の将来について相変わらず楽観的だ.

For all its flaws, America has long been the greatest force for good in the world, upholding the liberal order and offering an example of how democracy works. All that is imperilled by a president who believes that strong nations look out only for themselves. By putting “America First”, he makes it weaker, and the world worse off. 




swingby_blog at 19:07コメント(0) 


習近平とトランプは親しく見えるが、反米感情の動きが中国にある。 2つの偉大な権力が極めて異なった夢を持っている。

Xi and Trump look friendly, but anti-US feeling stirs in China
The two great powers have very different dreams
Nov 9th 2017 | BEIJING


CHINA’S leader, Xi Jinping, welcomed Donald Trump on the American president’s first visit to Beijing like a Chinese emperor receiving a barbarian potentate, with a mixture of flattery and disdain. The government closed to the public the 9,000-room Forbidden City—the vermilion-walled former imperial palace at the heart of Beijing—so the visitor could have his own tour and dinner there. The courtiers of the Communist Party have lost little of the ancient art of feigned deference. 

potentate:(絶対権限を持つ)統治者, 君主, 支配者; 権力者.
feigned deference:見せかけの服従

The Chinese also bore gifts: trade deals worth over $200bn, covering everything from jet engines and car parts to shale gas. Most of the pledges were memoranda of understanding: expressions of intent, not enforceable contracts. Many concerned things the Chinese would have done anyway. Still, Mr Trump seemed pleased, as he also was by Mr Xi’s (reiterated) pledge to enforce UN resolutions on North Korea. 

bore:come bearing a gift 手土産を持ってやって来る
memoranda:mem・o・ran・dum 複-da  覚書契約(書)

The question is how long the summit’s bonhomie will last. Under Mr Xi, China has become more open in its challenge to American influence in Asia. The official media have turned more sharply critical of America’s political system. The problem has hardly reached the embassy-burning stage (angry crowds last surrounded the American embassy in Beijing in 1999, after NATO’s mistaken bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade). But there is a whiff of anti-Americanism in the air. 

bonhomie:陽気な親しみ, 気さくな親切さ.

Mr Trump claims that he and Mr Xi are close. The same can hardly be said of public attitudes towards each other’s countries. A study in 2016 by Zhang Kun and Zhang Mingxin of Huazhong University of Science and Technology found that America was far down the list of countries about which the Chinese express favourable opinions—below Germany, Britain, France, Canada, Australia and Russia. 

Things may have changed since then because views of Mr Trump are warmer in China than in most places. But opinions of America itself are unlikely to have improved much. A survey in the same year by the Pew Research Centre in Washington also found that only half of Chinese respondents were favourable to America—much less than the global median “favourability rating” for the United States of 64% then. 

American opinions of China are even cooler. Pew’s poll in 2017 found more Americans expressed negative views about China than positive. Such attitudes might not affect policy but they could make public dissatisfaction easy to ignite. 

Anecdotal evidence suggests there is plenty of flammable material. One of the most popular questions on Zhihu, a Chinese question-and-answer site, is “Is America preparing to dismantle China?” (the most popular answer, though, is that if China were to collapse, America would not be the main reason). It has been viewed 3m times since the start of 2016. 

anecdotal evidence:個人の見解に基づく(不確かな)証拠.

The phrase “American air is so sweet” has become a term of online abuse. It stems from a comment by a Chinese graduate of an American university who said that “when I took my first breath of American air, it was so sweet and fresh…I felt free.” The remark produced a torrent of criticism in China; she apologised and closed her online account. The term is now used as sarcastic criticism of all things American. 

a term of abuse:悪口
torrent:a torrent of criticism [tears] 批判の嵐[あふれ出す涙].
sarcastic:嫌味な, 皮肉な, 当てこすりの.

For many years, despite ups and downs in policy, China’s rulers stuck to a strategic view that the United States was essential to their country’s modernisation. China, they argued, needed American technology to upgrade its industries and American markets for its exports. That view has become far less strongly held as China’s economy shifts away from exports and towards home-grown innovation. In the past year, moreover, it has been overlain by a competing idea: that China’s global ambitions require a dose of anti-Americanism. 

overlain:òver・líe…の上に横たわる[寝る]; (添い寝をしていて)〈幼児〉の上に乗りかかって窒息死させる; (地層が)…の上にある.
high [low, lethal] doses of radiation:大量[少量, 致死量]の放射線照射

Bucking the norm
In a speech last month at a five-yearly party congress, Mr Xi made those ambitions even more apparent. He talked of moving China “closer to centre stage” and of the country’s “all-round efforts” to pursue “great-power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics”. It is not clear what these characteristics are, but it is a safe bet that they do not involve accepting global norms established by America. 

Bucking the norm:(アメリカの)基準に強く反対する

The United States has long proclaimed itself “the last, best hope of Earth” (to quote Lincoln). Now Chinese media are advancing similar claims about China’s system. In mid-October Xinhua, the main state-run news agency, made the case explicitly. In an article called “Enlightened Chinese democracy puts the West in the shade”, it said the Western kind was “doddering”. 

put ~ in the shade:〜を日陰に置く
doddering:(高齢のため)よろよろ歩く(along); 震える, ぐらつく.

It argued that the Chinese system “leads to social unity” rather than the divisions which it said were an “unavoidable consequence” of Western democracy. The commentary forbore to name names, but state media often talk of Mr Trump’s America as a prime example of what Xinhua referred to as “the endless political backbiting, bickering and policy reversals which are the hallmarks of liberal democracy”. 

forbore:forbear  ≪…(すること)を≫ 差し控える
reversals:逆転; 反転; 挫折

Xinhua’s description of democracy’s self-destructive tendencies echoes that of a book published in 1991 called “America Against America” by a professor at Fudan University, Wang Huning. But there are three important differences between China’s interaction with America today and the way it was then. One is that Mr Wang has just been elevated to the party’s most powerful body, the Politburo Standing Committee, where he is likely to be in charge of propaganda (that is, projecting the party’s image at home and the country’s abroad). Having in such a position an America-sceptic who actually studied there is unprecedented. 

elevate:George was elevated to an executive of the company. ジョージは会社の重役に昇進した.

Next, the government has started to export what it calls “the China model”. Deng Xiaoping once said China was not a model for anyone. At last month’s party gathering, Mr Xi talked about China “blazing a new trail for other developing countries” and offering “Chinese wisdom and a Chinese approach to solving problems” (his “Belt and Road Initiative” offers lots of cash, too). Orville Schell of the Asia Society in New York says this seems to set up a clash not just of civilisations and values, but of political and economic systems. 

blaze a [the] trail:先鞭を付ける, 先駆者となる.
clash:衝突 対立

Third, the anti-American strain now seems to run from the top of the Chinese state (Messrs Xi and Wang) to the bottom (Xinhua and internet trolls). That suggests such sentiment is gaining strength. Mr Xi may still prefer to exercise caution in his country’s rivalry with America. But he does not seem to have moderated his global ambitions because of Mr Trump. And it will take more than a dinner in the Forbidden City to wish those ambitions away. 




swingby_blog at 21:03コメント(0) 

国税庁はアフリカにおける情報技術のどのように遅らせているか。 あなたがやめさせようとしたいのであれば課税しなさい。

How the taxman slows the spread of technology in Africa
If you want less of something, tax it
Nov 9th 2017


the taxman:国税庁

AFTER a stunning economic expansion, sub-Saharan Africa has run out of puff. Last year GDP growth fell to 1.4%, its slowest rate in more than two decades. That was probably half the rate of population growth—meaning that, on average, its people got poorer. This year will be a little better, but not much. The IMF reckons growth will pick up to about 2.6% for 2017, but even that will not be enough to keep pace with the number of babies being born.

stunning:a stunning victory 衝撃的な勝利.
puff:run out of puff 息が切れる

Yet look beyond the downturn and one can see encouraging signs that a combination of new technologies promises to transform the region’s fortunes. Mobile phones, rooftop solar power and village Wi-Fi networks are helping to compensate for shoddy infrastructure. Corrupt governments are still terrible at building roads, and state-monopoly power utilities are still awful at providing electricity. But tech-savvy entrepreneurs are finding ways to connect people, electrify their homes and alleviate all manner of social problems (see our special report). 

savvy:computer savvy コンピュータの知識を持った
alleviate:(一時的に)〈苦痛・問題など〉を軽減する, 緩和する.

Technology is not a panacea, of course. Drones may be able to fly over trackless forests to deliver life-saving medical supplies to remote clinics. But they are no substitute for proper roads; people cannot commute to work hanging from an aerial drone, nor can heavy goods move to market that way. Smartphones may help activists monitor elections, but they cannot, by themselves, stop autocrats from rigging them. 

a human rights activist:人権活動家.

Some technology may even pose a threat to Africa. Automation and industrial robots are taking away factory jobs in the rich world. Some economists fret that they will make it harder for Africa to grow the way Asian countries once did, by luring peasants out of fields and into factories. But others think that 3D printing and robotics may instead reduce the importance of scale in manufacturing, encouraging African firms to make things. 

pose a threat:脅威を与える
fret:【ささいな事で】くよくよする, 気をもむ

Overall, technology will probably make Africans wealthier, healthier and better educated by dramatically lowering the costs of development. Take power as an example. Getting electricity to the two-thirds of Africans without it in the old way—by building generating stations and an electricity grid—would cost some $63bn a year (compared with just $8bn being spent now) and still take until 2030. But the falling costs of solar cells and batteries, and innovative business models, mean that millions of Africans are now able to bypass the grid and get electricity from rooftop installations for a few dollars a week. 

Unfortunately, instead of seizing such opportunities, many African governments are energetically discouraging the spread of technology. Many ban genetically modified crops, refusing even to accept them as food aid when their people are starving. Almost all invest far too little in science and research, and have byzantine visa systems that discourage skilled immigration. And they tax mobile phone and internet companies at punitive rates. In 2015 mobile-phone operators in 12 African countries paid taxes and other fees equivalent to 35% of their turnover, says the GSMA, an industry lobby. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has one of the lowest rates of phone penetration in the world, taxes on mobile operators made up 17% of government revenues. 

modified:genetically modified crop 遺伝子組換え作物
byzantine:迷路のように入り組んだ; 複雑な; 権謀術数的な.

African taxmen pick on phone companies because they make lots of money and keep excellent records in a continent where both these things are rare. There is no doubt that governments need the cash. Tax to GDP ratios in Africa are still very low—on average below 17%, compared with 35% in OECD countries—and public debt is rising rapidly. It is now above 50% of GDP in almost half of the region’s countries, and the cost of servicing it is onerous. Some people dismiss phone companies’ complaints about tax as mere whingeing. They point out that such firms have grown rapidly despite high taxes. 

dismiss:相手[問題]にしない, 取り上げない 

Yet this misses the point. Phone and internet penetration rates in Africa are still far below those of other regions and connectivity is costly relative to incomes. As mobile phones spread, they speed economic growth and help boost productivity. Fast cable internet may be even better at creating well-paid jobs, boosting the number of startups and stimulating exports. 

Although data are still scarce, there is every reason to think that phones, the internet and the technologies that they enable may together provide Africa with the most powerful tools yet to alleviate poverty, boost growth and ultimately catch up with the rich world. Governments should remember that the best way to get less of something is to tax it heavily—and Africa plainly needs more connectivity, not less. 



swingby_blog at 10:36コメント(0) 



Nov 10, 2017 | 10:00 GMT Stratfor
To Counter China, India Pushes East


With its Act East policy, India is focused on strengthening its trade and infrastructural ties with Southeast Asia.
With its Act East policy, India is focused on strengthening its trade and infrastructural ties with Southeast Asia.(BEYHANYAZAR/iStock)

China’s regional expansion in the Asia-Pacific will continue driving India into a security partnership with the United States and Japan as part of its Act East policy.

Barriers to market access will continue limiting the expansion of Indian trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Fiscal and project management impediments will limit progress on India’s two key infrastructure projects in the northeast, thereby limiting its land-based ASEAN trade.


India has long looked east across the Bay of Bengal to Southeast Asia. Throughout its history, Indian traders and missionaries plying its waters for Malaysia and Indonesia brought Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism to the region with them. Those ties have lingered into the present, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has touched upon their shared cultural and religious connections through soft power diplomacy as part of his government's Act East policy. 

plying:ply the water with oars 一生懸命オールで水をかく.

Seeking to expand India's economic and strategic linkages to a region, which along with India encompasses 1.85 billion people and a combined gross domestic product of $3.8 trillion, Modi's Act East policy is driven by a host of factors. These include moving to counterbalance the rise of Chinese regional influence, promoting Indian services and goods exports, and catalyzing the development of the country's impoverished northeastern wing through infrastructure projects linking India with Myanmar, Thailand and beyond. Still, several obstacles stand between India and its goals, including protectionist barriers in Southeast Asian states to trade in the services sector, domestic fiscal constraints impeding progress on infrastructure projects and the limited size of the Indian trade sector. 


Origins: The Turning Point
In 1991 the near total depletion of India's foreign exchange reserves precipitated a balance of payments crisis requiring emergency intervention from the International Monetary Fund. As that crisis unfolded, India watched its strongest international partner, the Soviet Union, collapse. The resulting shake-up in the global order gave Prime Minister Narasimha Rao and his finance minister, Manmohan Singh, the opportunity to advance the country's ongoing processes of deregulation and globalization in a more categorical manner, marking a turning point for India's economy. 

categorical:絶対的な, 無条件の.

Singh's economic reforms took aim at the country's independence-era policy emphasizing domestic industrial production over foreign imports, shifting its economic focus instead to exports and foreign investment as a means of promoting trade-oriented growth. The economic reforms dealt a blow to the Indian model of self-reliance championed by Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister, who sought to safeguard its autonomy in response to its history as a British colony. 

self-reliance:自立(していること), 独立独行.
championed:He championed democracy. 彼は民主主義を唱え闘った.

India: From Isolation to Globalization
As economic growth accelerated and India began opening itself up to the world, Rao looked east toward the fast-growing economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). His Look East initiative was part of a conscious effort by the government to reorient Indian trade toward Asia. And indeed, trade with ASEAN under successive administrations expanded, from $2 billion in 1992 to $72 billion in 2012. 


From Look East to Act East
Since entering office in 2014, Modi has sought to further shed the vestiges of Nehru's idealism in favor of a more driven, ambitious and pragmatic foreign policy that elevates India's global profile. Economic diplomacy is a key element of Modi's foreign policy: Attracting greater foreign investment and bolstering trade contributes to economic growth. 


The expectant rise in tax revenue, in turn, would allow the government to increase its defense budget to spend more on its navy, increasing its ability to project power more effectively. As part of this effort, Modi announced during the East Asia Summit in November 2014 that he was upgrading Look East to Act East, signifying that India was broadening its engagement beyond ASEAN to embrace other regional powers, including Australia, South Korea and Japan. 

expectant:an expectant audience 期待して待つ観衆
signifying:She nodded to signify her approval. 彼女はうなずいて賛意を示した.

Broadly defined, two core components of Act East are economic and security. And among the core economic components is India's trade with ASEAN. In 2016, total bilateral trade amounted to $75 billion, about 11 percent of India's total global trade. Underpinning these trade flows are a host of agreements at the bilateral and multilateral level, including those between India and ASEAN over free trade and services and investments. 

Underpinning:〈議論など〉を支える; 実証する.

Of India's top five trading partners in the bloc — Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand — Singapore is unique for being both the largest ASEAN source of foreign direct investment in India and for accounting for about 97 percent of India's information technology services exports — a key offensive interest in Indian trade negotiations. 

offensive :攻撃的な

But protectionism has stunted India's efforts to boost this critical export sector. Namely, Singapore, a country in which nonresidents constitute almost 40 percent of the workforce, has increased its scrutiny of Indian IT visa applications in an effort to support local workers. Barring a change in Singaporean policy, this will remain a point of contention between the countries. Moreover, another constraint on expanding India's ASEAN IT exports is economic: Specifically, ASEAN economies have a limited ability to afford India's high-value IT exports. 

Barring:…がなければ; …を除いては.
contention:in contention 論争中で[の]; ≪…を≫ 勝ち得る可能性のある ≪for≫ .

So in a bid to stimulate future demand in the developing ASEAN economies, India has set up IT training centers in Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam and Laos. Finally, the presence of free trade agreements hasn't resulted in satisfactory tariff liberalization or the removal of non-tariff barriers on par with the ASEAN market access offered to China and Japan, which together account for close to 40 percent of the bloc's trade, compared with India's 3 percent. 

on par with:〜と同等[同程度・同レベル]で

Promoting the development of India's impoverished northeastern wing is another key economic objective of the Act East policy. Because of poor infrastructure access in the region, which shares a 1,674-kilometer (1,040-mile) border with Myanmar, most of the trade between India and its ASEAN partners is conducted by sea. To rectify this situation, New Delhi has been working on two key infrastructure projects — the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport project. The highway would link Moreh in Manipur province with Tak province in Thailand, providing an overland trade route into Southeast Asia. 

rectify:問題・状況など〉を正す, 訂正[修正]する.

The Kaladan project, initiated in 2008, would connect the Indian port city of Kolkata in West Bengal with the port of Sittwe in Myanmar's Rakhine state and extend back to India's northeastern state of Mizoram. However, fiscal constraints and project management inefficiencies often slow infrastructure development in the rugged northeastern wing, suggesting delays in completing the connection between the region and, in turn, indicating that India’s land-based trade will continue to lag behind seaborne trade. 


Guarding the Oceans
While trade is important, what truly distinguishes the Act East policy from its predecessor is its emphasis on an enhanced regional security role for India both within and beyond the ASEAN states as it seeks to keep China's regional maritime ambitions in check. In this regard, the policy gels with Washington's strategic pivot toward the Asia-Pacific in general, and in ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea in particular. 

keep ~ in check:〜を抑制[制止・阻止・防止・けん制]する、〜を食い止める
gels:うまくやる, 協調する, 意気投合する ≪with≫

In fact, a shared rivalry with China is driving India, Japan and the United States toward closer military cooperation — demonstrated through the annual Malabar naval exercises, which took place this year in the Bay of Bengal. So long as China continues asserting its sovereignty in the region, this trend of security cooperation among the nations will only deepen. 

Additionally, New Delhi and Tokyo are forging stronger bilateral relations, including a desire for greater cooperation on counterterrorism and joint military exercises. Economically, Japan has promised to invest $35 billion in India over the next five years. That includes a joint agreement to build a bullet rail line between Mumbai and Ahmedabad by 2022. And in what is seen as an answer to China's Belt and Road Initiative, both have promoted the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, a raft of infrastructure and development projects.

raft:a raft of new policies たくさんの新政策.

Concerns over growing Chinese influence is driving India, Japan, the United States and Australia to revive their quadrilateral dialogue, which had been moribund for a decade, during the upcoming East Asia Summit. For India, this calculation is also based on self-interest. It includes a strategy of imposing secondary costs on China on the maritime front in tandem with the United States in response to China's foray into South Asia, a development India perceives as alarming. In a diplomatic signal of the importance the White House places upon India as the western anchor of its strategy to counter China's expansionism, the administration has proved willing to use the term "Indo-Pacific" rather than "Asia-Pacific." 

secondary:副次的な, 派生的な; 

As India seeks to expand its economic presence in Southeast Asia and beyond, the difficulties of securing greater market access and the slow pace of its infrastructure development will limit its push for greater trade relations as it addresses regional and internal security challenges in South Asia. But the rise of China will push India into asserting its own naval presence in the region alongside the United States. During his 2015 visit to Washington, Modi said, "When I look east, I see the western shores" of the United States. And for New Delhi, a region where the past mingles with the present will increasingly shape its future. 

mingles:混ざる, 混ざり合う ≪with≫



swingby_blog at 21:13コメント(0) 



Nov 7, 2017 | 18:30 GMT Stratfor
Trump Angles for a Win in Asia


angle: 釣りをする ≪for≫遠回しに求める, それとなく得ようとする
U.S. President Donald Trump toasts Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (L) at a welcome dinner at Akasaka Palace, Tokyo, Nov. 6.
U.S. President Donald Trump toasts Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (L) at a welcome dinner at Akasaka Palace, Tokyo, Nov. 6. (SHIZUO KAMBAYASHI/AFP/Getty Images)

Beijing hopes to deflect U.S. demands for greater market access and structural reform with business incentives, but Washington will not skirt the issues of Chinese trade and currency practices. U.S. President Donald Trump embarks on a 12-day tour of the Asia-Pacific at a time of geopolitical flux. The trip comes on the heels of a major leadership transition in China and a snap election in Japan. Those changes have strengthened Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe, the leaders of the region's two biggest economies, which are also geopolitical rivals. 

skirt:〈問題など〉を避けて通る, 回避する.
flux:(絶え間ない)変化, 移り変わり; 不安定
heels:on the héels of 〈事〉の直後に引き続いて

Meanwhile, Washington is entangled in controversy at home. But the United States faces a far more pressing challenge: a North Korea that is quickly approaching its objective of a credible nuclear deterrent — a red line for the United States. The president can be expected to exhort both allies and rivals to step up their efforts to contain Pyongyang. However, Washington's problems at home, its demands for trade reassessments and the ongoing strategic realignments in the region will complicate its efforts to reaffirm its commitments and to advance its priorities. 

entangled:【問題・困難などに】巻き込まれる ≪in≫
pressing:急を要する, 緊急の〈問題・必要性など〉
minimum nuclear deterrent 最低限の核抑止力
complicate:状況・問題など〉を複雑にする, 難しくする

Like his visit to Japan, Trump's meetings in Seoul will center on dialing up pressure against North Korea and reaffirming the U.S.-South Korean defensive alliance. But unlike the South Korean government, Tokyo is looking for Washington's blessing to play a more prominent role in regional security matters and in counterbalancing China. 

blessing:承認, 応援, 支持

North Korea and trade will dominate Trump's meeting in China, and President Xi Jinping will welcome him with an unprecedented banquet in the Forbidden City and significant business deals in hopes of hedging against Washington trade pressure. In contrast, his meetings in Vietnam and the Philippines will focus on clarifying Washington's positions on regional trade and maritime security while smoothing over earlier bumps in relations with the Philippines. If the purpose of Trump's visit is to cement Washington's agenda, then each leg of his tour will focus on a different aspect of this goal. 

hedging :損失を防ぐ策をとる ≪against≫ .

Toward the end of the trip, Trump will join 20 other leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, as well as the East Asia Summit. Trump will also attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Manila, where the Philippines chairs the bloc's 50th-anniversary celebration. 

The North Korean Standoff
Trump's tour comes at a crucial moment as countries in the region and beyond gauge Washington's options in dealing with North Korea's nuclear program. The United States has apparently boosted the perception that it is willing to take unilateral military action should diplomacy fail, and a rare assembly of three U.S. carrier strike groups has moved into the Western Pacific for mid-November exercises. Indeed, increased sanctions and international isolation have done nothing but encourage North Korea to fast-track the development of its nuclear arsenal. 

and beyond:その先

As Pyongyang refuses to yield, the United States and its allies are attempting to seize a limited opportunity to delay or to halt its nuclear ambitions — whether through military or other means. Against this backdrop, Trump's visits to Tokyo and Seoul serve primarily as a chance to seek consensus among its core regional allies, reaffirm Washington's security commitment and shore up political support for more energetic defense postures. 

But unlike Japan, which has fewer constraints in aligning with Washington's agenda, South Korea must carefully weigh its options against the deadly cost of a military provocation of North Korea or the backlash from China over greater security cooperation. Indeed, Seoul's strong opposition to U.S. military action, its soft-line approach to North Korea and pursuit of dialogue with Pyongyang, and its willingness to pursue rapprochement with Beijing over the U.S. missile defense controversy, cast doubt on whether Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae In will speak with a united voice. 


Taking advantage of Seoul's perceived unreliability, Tokyo will seek a more prominent and active role in the region, which will assist its military normalization and future U.S.-Japanese defense cooperation. In addition, Tokyo will use the opportunity to solidify its role as a counterbalance to China. Japan will also propose to re-establish a quadrilateral security mechanism involving Australia and India, reflecting Washington's concept of Indo-Pacific security.

Taking advantage of :に乗じて

The key questions for Trump's meeting with Xi are what does Washington expect from China on North Korea, and what can Beijing reasonably do? 

While Washington's military pressure is aimed at deterring Pyongyang, it's also an effort to compel China to step up efforts to rein in its neighbor. In fact, while Beijing was strongly concerned about the effects of tougher economic sanctions on regime instability and refugee flow, it has shown stronger resolve lately in complying with the restrictions. 


Questions remain about enforcement, but Beijing appeared to reluctantly accept that sanctions are the only viable means to dissuade North Korea. But, more critically, they pre-empt secondary sanctions on Chinese businesses and head off a much more costly preventive strike against Pyongyang. Against this backdrop, the key questions for Trump's meeting with Xi are: What does Washington expect from China on North Korea, and what can Beijing, given its constraints, reasonably do? 

head off:【ある方向へ】進む, 向かう ≪to, toward≫ .
The China-U.S. Trade Tussle
As the limited detente between the United States and China over North Korea has worn thin, Washington has refocused its trade agenda. Specifically, the United States has pressured China to take action in three areas: market access restrictions, trade protectionism and intellectual property practices, particularly in the high-tech sector. Washington recently launched an investigation of technology transfers under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and blocked a Chinese takeover of a U.S. computer chipmaker. While Beijing has made some concessions, such as granting a limited opening to U.S. agriculture, promising to increase energy imports and vowing to protect foreign intellectual property, its actions have fallen far short of U.S. expectations. 

Now, my patience is wearing very thin. : 我慢も限界です。
fall short of:〔ある標準・期待などに〕達しない

Until now, Beijing's strategy has been to offer just enough incentives to deflect U.S. demands for greater market access and for structural reform to China's economy. To this end and ahead of Trump's visit, Beijing has been tailoring its negotiations around the president's domestic goals. For instance, the state-owned petroleum refiner Sinopec is proposing a $7 billion energy investment in hurricane-ravaged areas of Texas and the U.S. Virgin Islands that could create thousands of jobs. China may also allow Tesla to build its first wholly owned manufacturing operation in Shanghai to showcase Beijing's commitment to greater market access. 


While these moves are welcome gestures, Washington is unlikely to let the issues of Chinese trade and currency practices end at that. Even allies Japan and South Korea haven't avoided U.S. trade pressure. Speaking to business leaders in Tokyo on Nov. 6, Trump criticized Japan's trade practices, called for more Japanese investment into the United States and demanded that the country open its markets to U.S. beef and auto exports. In South Korea, Trump is expected to clarify the status of a review of the countries' bilateral free-trade pact. The United States will likely seek greater openness for agricultural products, looser conditions on the services sector and openness for investment in emerging industries.

Looking South
In Danang, an emerging economic powerhouse in central Vietnam, Trump's trade discussions with three Northeast Asian states will pave his way to the APEC forum. But at APEC, where the remaining 11 members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership struggle to keep the multilateral deal alive in the wake of the U.S. pullout, world attention will turn to Trump's meeting with other leaders, and possibly Putin. Separately, during the ASEAN and East Asia Summit in the Philippines, Trump will focus on smoothing over uncertainties about the administration's commitment to the economic and security architecture in the Western Pacific, on having a unified ASEAN voice, and on maintaining robust maritime security. 

A good university can pave the way to a good career. : 一流の大学を出れば出世の道が開ける。

As the disputes over the South China Sea increasingly turn in China's favor and as many Southeast Asian nations — most conspicuously the Philippines — tilt toward Beijing, Vietnam will play a more prominent role in Washington's Western Pacific strategy. After Danang, Trump will talk with Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang in Hanoi about increasing economic and security cooperation and checking Beijing's maritime expansionism in the South China Sea. While the two countries have ample room for further security cooperation, Hanoi remains reluctant to entangle itself in the competition between China and the United States or develop bilateral ties beyond the economic realm. 

turn in someone's favor:〜に有利に展開する

Separately, Trump's visit to the Philippines will give the two allies a chance to reset their bilateral relations. Manila's shift to China and Russia has given it space to trim its reliance on the United States and to hedge against the West over its contentious priorities. Nonetheless, the Philippines have powerful incentives to keep the security alliance with the United States intact, as the recent battle in Marawi City illustrated. That alliance also provides negotiating strength in dealing with Beijing.

hedge :損失を防ぐ策をとる ≪against≫
contentious:〈問題などが〉議論を呼ぶ, 物議をかもす.
intact:損なわれていない, そっくりそのままで

Overall, Trump's visit reinforces his Asia-Pacific agenda, reaffirms the fundamental continuity of U.S. power in the region and delivers the message that while Washington policy may be subject to modification, its strategic interests — as well as challenges — in the region will not diminish. 



swingby_blog at 23:13コメント(0) 
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