2018年の予測 (20)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (20)

2018年の予測 (20)

Russian Economic Woes

Russian Economic Woes
The contests, slated for March and September 2018, respectively, will serve as a test for President Vladimir Putin and his detractors alike. Despite the buzz in Western media, however, Putin has no credible challenger for his office. His opponents represent an array of ideologies and personalities, and the government will seize on their differences to keep the opposition divided. Still, the ruling United Russia party understands that the swelling tide of protest movements, particularly among young Russians, requires a new strategy. The Kremlin, to that end, will roll out fresh messaging to target the youth vote and try to energize the electorate. And in the likely event that Putin wins another term in office, his administration will use his victory to restore faith in his legitimacy. The various opposition groups, in turn, will hold protests across Russia in the run-up to the vote and may even stage mass demonstrations around Putin's re-election. 

Woes:災い, 困難
a buzz of conversation:話し声によるざわつき.
a credible candidate:見込みのある候補者.
restore faith in:〜の信頼を取り戻す
in the run-up to the coming election:来たるべき選挙を目前に控えて.

Unrest won't be the only political challenge awaiting Putin in his next term. Infighting within the Kremlin will increase next year. While powerful elites such as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and oil tycoon Igor Sechin break with Putin to pursue their own agendas, the president will consolidate a coalition of his most loyal advisers to protect him and help him implement his policies. Putin won't fully crack down on the renegades, but he could undertake reshufflings in his administration to limit their power. The result will be an ever-more centralized, authoritarian presidency and a progressively more fragmented political system. 

Unrest:(社会・政治的な)不安, 不穏(な状況), 不満
Infighting:(組織内での)内輪もめ, 内部抗争, 内ゲバ.
break with:| breɪk | 決別する
undertake:〈事〉を始める, …に乗り出す, 着手する
fragmented: | fráɡməntɪd |ばらばらの, 分裂[崩壊]した.

Compared with the presidential election, the regional votes promise to be a tighter race for United Russia. Liberal opposition groups made gains in this year's regional elections. To slow their progress in the 2018 contest, the Kremlin will keep exploiting the divisions between them. Moscow may also crack down to try to curb protests across the country, while allowing some demonstrations to continue as a way to ease the political pressure building in Russia. 

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands 
Just beyond Russia's borders, the new year will bring its share of activity and instability. Ukraine, for example, will spend 2018 gearing up for its own presidential and parliamentary elections to follow in 2019 — its first since the snap votes that followed the Euromaidan uprising in 2014. Leading up to the 2019 elections, protests and government shake-ups are likely, and early legislative votes are possible. But the country won't deviate from its Western-oriented foreign policy as it weathers another year of war in the eastern part of its territory. 

snap vote:抜き打ち投票
legislative votes:議会により可決された投票
weathers:〈嵐・困難など〉を無事に乗り切る, うまく切り抜ける

Though the United States and Russia will proceed with negotiations over the conflict in Donbass — and may even make some headway on the issue of U.N. peacekeepers in the region — a broader resolution will remain elusive in 2018. As a result, Ukraine will continue to receive political, economic and security backing from the United States and its Western allies while it strives to further its economic, energy and security integration with Poland and the Baltic States. Russia, meanwhile, will ramp up its hybrid warfare campaign — including cyberattacks and assassinations — against the country and its supporters. 

make some headway in:〜の点でいくらか前進する
elusive:〈結果などが〉手に入れにくい, 達成しがたい.
ramp up:増やす

Southwest of Ukraine, elections could plunge Moldova into political turmoil next year. If the November vote goes in President Igor Dodon's favor — and to the detriment of the coalition that has long ruled the country — Moldova could start rolling back its efforts at integration with the European Union, at odds with the interests of pro-European groups. At the same time, it would probably also begin collaborating more closely with Russia on economic and security issues. Large protests before and after the elections are possible. 

to the detriment of :〈物・事・人〉を犠牲にして, に損害を与えて
roll back:後退させる
at odds with:〜と不和で、〜と争って、〜と意見が食い違って、〜との関係が悪化して

Next year will kick off a busy election season in the Caucasus, too. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will each hold presidential elections in 2018. More than the outcomes of these votes, though, the larger states nearby will influence foreign policy in the region. Azerbaijan and Georgia, for instance, will continue their efforts to forge closer energy, infrastructure and security ties with Turkey, while Armenia strengthens its military partnership with Russia and fortifies its economic links with Iran. Along the way, Tehran and Ankara will be careful not to challenge Moscow's strategic position in the Caucasus. Russia will remain the primary arbiter in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, working to prevent the dispute from escalating while at the same time supplying both sides with arms. 

arbiter:裁決[決定]者; (ある分野の)権威(者).仲裁者(arbitrator).
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict:ナゴルノカラバフ問題 アゼルバイジャン南部のナゴルノカラバフ自治州のアルメニアへの帰属問題。



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2018年の予測 (19)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (19)

2018年の予測 (19)

Echoes of the Cold War 
Though the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East will take up more of Russia's attention in the coming year, Moscow's relations with the West will be no less important. Tensions are liable to rise in 2018 between Russia and the United States. Washington has signaled that it may ramp up its pressure on Russia in the coming year through a variety of means, including a heavier sanctions regime and lethal arms sales to Ukraine. At the same time, the United States is building up its ballistic missile defenses in Europe and Asia. The campaign will further strain its bilateral arms treaties with Russia, which will be all the more difficult to renegotiate since Washington has threatened Moscow with punitive measures for allegedly violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. 

take up:〈申し出・挑戦・機会など〉を受け入れる

Having come to grips with life under existing sanctions, Moscow is determined to avoid incurring more sanctions from Washington in 2018. With that in mind, Russia will highlight areas in which it would be willing either to work with the United States or to negotiate concessions, such as the peace process in Syria, talks with North Korea or the conflict in Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, will prepare for its ties with Washington to further deteriorate by shoring up its relationships in Asia and in the Middle East and by pursuing military buildups in its borderlands, for instance by permanently deploying the Iskander missile system in its exclave of Kaliningrad. 

come to grips with:〈困難な状況など〉に真剣に取り組む.
determined:確たる意志を持った, 意志の強い
willing:する意志[気]がある, …するのをいとわない
exclave:本国から離れて, 他国に囲まれた領土

Adding to Russia's sanctions worries, the European Union will vote to maintain its punitive measures on the country throughout the next year. The bloc, however, won't follow suit if the United States slaps new sanctions on Moscow for political interference, despite the fact that 2018 will give Russia ample opportunity to meddle in Europe's affairs. As Italy prepares to hold general elections by May, the Kremlin will use its tried-and-true weapons of hybrid warfare — disinformation, propaganda and cyberattacks — in hopes of bringing a more sympathetic government to power in Rome. 

vote:選ぶ 提案する
follow suit:先例に倣う 真似をする
ample:ample opportunity [evidence] 十分な機会[証拠].
hybrid warfare :Warfare that blends conventional warfare and irregular warfare (potentially including cyberwarfare かつ information warfare) — the full spectrum of conflict.
sympathetic:賛成の 好意的な

An administration led by the Five Star Movement, after all, could perhaps break the unanimous vote required to extend the EU sanctions against Russia in the future. Influencing the elections' outcome won't be easy, as Moscow learned during the recent political races in France and Germany. Even so, Russia will keep up its efforts to sow discord among the bloc's member states and their electorates, even if it doesn't accomplish its goals for the Italian election. 


Russia's Internal Struggle
At home, Moscow will have a host of problems to contend with next year. Russia's worsening economic and financial straits will be one of its biggest challenges. After officially pulling out of recession this year, the country is settling into a prolonged period of stagnation. Banks are failing in near-record numbers, regional governments are defaulting on their debts, more and more businesses are going bankrupt, and a growing number of state firms need bailing out. These issues will stretch the Kremlin's finances, sap its sovereign wealth funds and force the government to borrow at least $18 billion more abroad. 

a host of other problems:多くのほかの問題
straits:(主に財政的な)難局, 苦境, 困難, 貧窮
stagnation:不況, 景気停滞.
sovereign wealth fund:主権国家資産ファンド、政府系(投資)ファンド◆政府が出資する投資ファンド

Finding funding could become even more difficult if the United States imposes sanctions to discourage Western markets from lending to Russia, though Moscow's growing economic ties in Asia and the Middle East will give it some alternative options. Either way, Russia's financial woes are too great for Moscow to shoulder. The Kremlin will have to let some businesses, banks and maybe even a regional government fail as it works to manage the fallout to avoid destabilizing the political system ahead of presidential and regional elections in 2018. 

financial woes:金銭的苦難.



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2018年の予測 (18)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (18)

2018年の予測 (18)

Top 5 Russian Trade Partners

Top 5 Russian Trade Partners
But the growing partnership between Russia and China can go only so far in the long run. Beijing and Moscow, after all, are natural rivals with overlapping spheres of influence. So though they will keep broadening the frontiers of their cooperation for now, their alliance will eventually have to contend with diverging views and competing priorities. In the meantime, the burgeoning partnership won't sit well with Japan. Tokyo will offer financial support for strategic projects such as liquefied natural gas facilities to curb Beijing's increasing influence in Russia. Moscow, in turn, will be only too happy to accept. 

burgeoning:〈人口・町などが〉急増する, 急成長の.

Infrastructure Between Russia and China

Infrastructure Between Russia and China
Beyond the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East will figure prominently in Russia's foreign policy next year. The balance of power is shifting in the region now that coalition forces have all but defeated the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Moscow intends to use the clout that its role in the Syrian civil war has earned it to try to influence other foreign powers with stakes in the region to shift the balance in its favor. 

figure:figure prominently in  の中で重要な役割を担う

Russia has four goals for this endeavor: to gain leverage in its negotiations with the West; to contain and counter the threat of Islamic extremism; to turn its relationships with regional powers to its favor; and to increase its access to energy, arms and agriculture markets in the area. With the entire region in play, Moscow will cultivate partnerships with several countries in the Middle East and North Africa in an effort to undermine the U.S. position there. Russia, for example, will work to restore its military presence in the region by leasing an air base in Egypt and by increasing arms sales to Libya. 

The tide is about to turn in his favor.:情勢は彼の有利に変わろうとしている

Iran will serve an essential role in Russia's activities in the Middle East over the next year. Since the U.S presidential administration decertified the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the deal halting Iran's nuclear weapons development — the agreement's future has come under greater doubt, and the threat of renewed economic sanctions has loomed larger over Tehran. Moscow will take advantage of the rising tensions between the United States and Iran to bolster its relationship with Tehran, building on the firm foundation it established through cooperation with Iran in Syria. Much as it does in its growing partnership with China, Russia sees in its ties with Iran an opportunity to counter the United States' strategic position. But their alliance, much like the one between Moscow and Beijing, also has clear limits, considering the conflicting interests of Russia and Iran in the Caucasus and in Central Asia. 

Russia will hit similar roadblocks as it works to strengthen its relationships with Turkey and with Saudi Arabia in 2018. As Moscow tries to pursue common interests with Ankara — and to use their deepening ties to widen Turkey's rifts with NATO and with the European Union — the two will butt heads. Turkey, for example, will object to Russia's outreach to the Kurds and to Moscow's overtures to Ankara's rivals in the region. The mounting hostility between the Saudi Arabia and Iran, likewise, will hamper Russia's budding alliance with the kingdom. 

butt heads with:〜とぶつかる[衝突する・角を突き合わせる]
overtures:予備交渉, 申し出, 提案(proposal)



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2018年の予測 (17)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (17)

2018年の予測 (17)

Eurasia is the world’s most expansive region. It connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. Forming the borders of this massive tract of land are the Northern European Plain, the Carpathian Mountains, the Southern Caucasus Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains and Siberia. At the heart of Eurasia is Russia, a country that throughout history has tried, to varying degrees of success, to extend its influence to Eurasia’s farthest reaches — a strategy meant to insulate it from outside powers. But this strategy necessarily creates conflict throughout Russia’s borderlands, putting Eurasia a near constant state of instability. 

tract:a tract of land 広い地域.
borderlands:国境地帯, 境界地域.

Section Highlights
As its standoff with the West intensifies in 2018, Russia will look to expand its influence in the Asia-Pacific region and in the Middle East.
The United States and Russia will spar over sanctions and arms control agreements as Moscow strives to undermine the unity of NATO and the European Union through hybrid warfare.
Presidential and regional elections in Russia will serve as a crucial test for the Kremlin, which will have to deal with converging crises at home.
Though negotiations over the Ukrainian conflict will pick up over the next year, they will fail to produce a resolution to the war in Donbas.
Economic and security challenges will test governments across Central Asia and encourage Russia and China to collaborate more closely in the region to stave off instability.

standoff:手詰まり, 膠着状態(deadlock) 
spar:意見を交わす, 口論する

Moscow Looks to the East 
As 2018 approaches, Russia — the linchpin of Eurasia — is undergoing a shift in its foreign policy. Years of deteriorating ties with the United States and Europe have led Moscow to recalibrate its priorities and strategy heading into the new year.

undergo rapid changes:急激な変化を遂げる.

As part of this adjustment, Russia will intensify its focus on the Asia-Pacific in 2018. As North Korea draws closer to demonstrating that it has achieved a credible nuclear deterrent, Russia will continue its behind-the-scenes support for the North Korean government by supplying fuel and maintaining trade ties with the isolated country. It won't have much of an opportunity to act as spoiler or peacemaker in the brewing conflict with Pyongyang, however, since the North Korean administration will forge ahead in its quest for a nuclear deterrent regardless of Moscow's economic and logistical backing. 


Furthermore, mounting concerns over the rogue administration across the border will compel Russia to temper its support for North Korea. Nevertheless, Russia will work to maintain its influence in the country, which it will try to use as leverage in talks with the United States, as well as with Japan and South Korea. It will also look for opportunities to exploit differences among the members of the U.S. trilateral alliance with Japan and South Korea. And all the while, Moscow will stay in lockstep with Beijing over the North Korean problem, advocating a containment policy and nonmilitary responses. 

compel:〈行為・物などが〉〈ある反応・変化・注目など〉を招く, 引き起こす
temper: …を加減[抑制]する; 〈感情など〉の強さを緩和する
exploit :につけこむ, …を不当に利用する
all the while:その間ずっと[いつも]
in lockstep:決められた通りに, 足並みをそろえて.

China, in fact, will play an important role in Russia's foreign and domestic strategies in 2018. As Russia's largest trading partner, China has helped ease the country's economic dependence on the West. Moscow hopes to continue that trend in the coming years by securing Chinese investment across the country in the energy, transportation and agricultural sectors. In addition, Beijing will facilitate Moscow's efforts to bolster its financial systems and cyber capabilities, and the two will strengthen their defense ties through military exercises and cooperation, as well. 

Their relationship also will extend to joint initiatives elsewhere. In Central Asia, for instance, Russia and China have established a kind of division of labor: China concentrates on economic issues in the region, while Russia focuses on security matters. Redoubling their collaboration will enable both countries to insulate themselves from U.S. pressure and to challenge Washington's strategic position in various theaters around the world. 

division of labor:分業
Redoubling:努力・熱意を強くする, 倍増する



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2018年の予測 (16)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (16)

2018年の予測 (16)

North African Nationalism
The Egyptian government will be keeping a close eye on popular opinion next year as well. The country will hold a presidential election in May. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will carefully manage the vote, leaving Egyptians with little choice in their actual selections. But more important will be the headcount at campaign events, social media activity and voter turnout — all of which will reveal some details about voters' opinions of Egypt's economic and security strategies. Any popular frustration with the government in Cairo will be channeled through opposition candidates, such as lawyer Khaled Ali. Subsidy cuts approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and scheduled for 2018 will deal a heavy blow to Egypt's lower- and middle-class citizens, but Cairo will try to mitigate the political fallout at home by handing out cash.

Buoyed by IMF loans, Egypt will exercise greater independence in its relationships abroad. (The more financially solvent the country is, the less reliance it has on foreign backers.) To that end, Cairo will balance its ties with the United States and Russia while holding Saudi Arabia at arm's length. Though Egypt is no friend to Iran, it isn't fond of kowtowing to Saudi Arabia's demands, either. Cairo will likewise find itself distanced from Ankara next year as Turkey lends support to the Palestinian cause — chipping away at Egypt's own credentials as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Egypt will try to account for Turkey's actions, and to better manage its problems with Sinai militancy, by courting deeper ties with Hamas, the Palestinian group tasked with managing the Gaza Strip. Cairo will also assist in Washington's efforts to negotiate a new peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians. 

Buoyed:を励ます, 元気づける(up).
at arm's length:一定の距離をおいて, 近づけないで
chipping away:〈考え・感情・制度など〉を少しずつ弱める, なし崩しにする
credentials:人物[能力, 信用]の証明となるもの, 実績, 資格
account:Depression accounts for the current high unemployment. 現在の失業率の高さは不況によるものである
courting:They have successfully courted support in America. 彼らはアメリカの支持をうまく取り付けた.

Next door, momentum will build behind an effort to hold elections in Libya. But although the latest U.N.-backed initiative is gaining support, the many factions taking part in peace talks are unlikely to hash out their differences next year. Nevertheless, a shared form of nationalism has arisen among the most powerful groups in Libya's east and west — including Libyan National Army Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter, who is gradually garnering the approval of the international community. A national conference in Tunis intended to catalyze the electoral process will showcase the common ground emerging in Libya in 2018. Even so, few parties will be convinced that the U.N. talks will meet their demands, ensuring that the strongest among them, such as Hifter, will continue to act in their own interest as negotiations unfold. 

hash out :〔合意を得るために〕詳細に議論する
garnering:〈情報・支持など〉を集める; 〈称賛など〉を得る.
unfold:〈折りたたんだ物〉を広げる, 開く

The Jihadist Wars 
The Islamic State may have suffered a sound defeat in Iraq and Syria, but the war against the world's extremist groups is far from over. Al Qaeda will attempt to exploit the collapse of the Islamic State's so-called caliphate to polish its own reputation as the leader of the global jihadist movement and to propagate its vision of "the long struggle." The group's recruitment efforts will aim to attract current and potential Islamic State followers in 2018. 

sound:〈言動・考え・根拠などが〉(合理的で)確かな, 適切な, 正しい, 正当性のある, 信頼できる
propagate :〈動植物など〉を繁殖[増殖]させる

Both al Qaeda and the Islamic State will seek out weak states where they can establish new strongholds or expand old positions, focusing on Yemen, Libya and the Sinai Peninsula. The ungoverned spaces of the Sahel, Afghanistan and Somalia may prove tempting for them as well. Meanwhile, al Qaeda will dig into its bases in conflicts throughout the Middle East — including Syria, where a schism between al Qaeda and an offshoot, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has jeopardized the organization's cohesion. As the battle for the hearts and minds of potential recruits around the world persists, so will the threat of homegrown militants inspired by the competing extremist ideologies urging them to carry out attacks. 

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham:an active Salafist jihadist militant group involved in the Syrian Civil War.The group was formed on 28 January 2017 as a merger between Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra Front), the Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement.



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2018年の予測 (15)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (15)

2018年の予測 (15)

The Saudi Survival Strategy 
As Saudi Arabia grapples with its rivals abroad, it will also have to wrestle with tricky reforms at home. Though all GCC states will have to undertake tough reforms in the year ahead, Saudi Arabia's are the biggest and most ambitious. At the heart of the domestic policy changes underway will be Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who will wield his newfound power to advance his sweeping agenda. The young leader will try to make good on his promises of aggressive economic reform, aiming to boost non-oil revenue through taxes and investment profits, stimulate private-sector growth and nationalize the kingdom's labor force. 

grapples:【問題などに】取り組む ≪with≫ .
wrestle:【問題などに[と]】(真剣に)取り組む, 格闘する ≪with≫
underway :〈事が〉進行中で, 始まって
nationalize:を全国に拡大[展開]する, 国家[国民]的なものにする.

Mohammed bin Salman's Powers

Mohammed bin Salman's Powers

Saudi Arabia cannot afford to put off these tough economic reforms any longer, and its citizens will soon see tangible signs of painful, if necessary, change. To balance its budget, Riyadh will have little choice but to enact new taxes and proceed with the planned partial initial public offering of the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., which will provide much-needed capital for the kingdom's future investments. (The IPO is currently set for 2018, but it may be pushed back.) As prices on everyday goods like fuel rise, popular dissatisfaction could rise with them. The government will be responsive to its people's demands, revising some targets if they are deemed too aggressive. Thanks in part to such attentiveness and flexibility, as well as a willingness to boost its capital investment next year, the kingdom will reach several of its goals — including an uptick in non-oil revenue. 

put off:事を延期する, 先延ばしにする
if necessary:必要ならば
pushed back:延期する、先送りする
attentiveness:注意深い, 熱心に注意を向ける, 慎重な

Some of Saudi Arabia's economic objectives require bold changes in social behavior that will take time to encourage. Eventually, Salman intends to design a new social contract that adjusts what citizens expect of their government, and vice versa. In the meantime, however, the kingdom will take notable strides toward that contract. Riyadh will likely grant women the right to drive in June 2018, and new entertainment opportunities will crop up throughout the year. The crown prince will preface each step with tentative announcements of the measures ahead to gauge the public's reaction and to fulfill his pledge of maintaining transparency. Though the country's conservative clerics will try to stand in the way of reform by appealing to an older demographic that is wary of the prince's aggressive reforms, young Saudis will increasingly embrace Salman's vision for the kingdom's future. 

encourage:を励ます, 勇気づける
strides:進歩, 発展
crop up:表面に現れる, 露出する
pledge:誓約, 固い[重要な]約束(promise); 公約 
wary:用心深い, 慎重な(careful)

The Importance of Saudi Reform

The Importance of Saudi Reform



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