Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT

Our Prime Minister's remark last night has been called into question：首相の昨夜の発言が問題視されている
integrity：完全に一体であること; 無傷の状態

poor showing of the candidates favored by：〜の支援する候補者のお粗末な選挙結果

change tack try [take] a different tack：方針[話題]を変える

2018 Annual Forecast　(23)

2018年の予測 (23)

The Fate of the Eurozone
Italy will be the main source of uncertainty for the eurozone next year. The country will hold general elections by May, and most of its political parties have criticized the EU's deficit targets. Some are also critical of the eurozone. No matter who wins the elections, Rome's next administration will push to increase public spending and redesign the bloc's deficit goals. 

The difference between the parties, however, is in their tone. Some, like the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the right-wing Northern League, will be more willing than others to threaten Brussels with unilateral measures if the European Union does not meet their demands. These threats could include ignoring the bloc's fiscal targets or leaving the eurozone. 


Of course, Italy isn't likely to exit the currency area in 2018, but the rise of a Euroskeptic government in the eurozone's third-largest economy could still put the currency bloc at risk. The mere threat of flouting eurozone rules or quitting it outright could cause concern in financial markets, lead to higher borrowing costs for Southern European countries, and raise questions about the prospects of Italy's fragile banks. On top of these economic risks, a more Euroskeptic Italy would face the prospect of political and institutional isolation within the European Union. 

flouting ：(故意に)〈法･規則など〉を無視する


Who Owns Italy's Sovereign Debt?
Given the fragmentation within Italian politics, the approaching elections are likely to end in a hung parliament. Yet even if the parties fail to cobble together a coalition government, they could still appoint a prime minister by consensus. EU institutions and financial markets would welcome such a decision because it would temporarily avert a financial crisis. But it would come at a steep cost, creating a government that is constantly on the verge of collapse, weakening Italy's influence in international affairs and undermining Rome's ability to introduce sweeping economic reforms. If, on the other hand, lawmakers are unable to agree on a prime minister, Italy might hold another round of elections by the end of 2018, prolonging the uncertainty obscuring the country's future. 

hung ：絶対多数政党のいない〈議会など〉
cobble：〈取り決めなど〉を早急にまとめる(together).
prolonging：〈時間･期間など〉を延長する

Italy won't be the only eurozone member grappling with tough questions next year, either. Greece's bailout program ends in August, at which point Athens will try to reduce the sway foreign lenders have over its policymaking. At the same time, however, Greece will ask its creditors to alleviate its debt burden. Athens' financiers will refuse to write down parts of Greece's debt. But they may be more amenable to other measures, such as an extension of debt maturities, lower interest rates and a grace period for debt repayments, particularly if Greece agrees to keep introducing economic and institutional reforms. Athens may indeed be willing to make this commitment if the requested measures are less painful than those attached to its bailout. So although Greece will remain a source of concern for the eurozone in 2018, its membership in the currency area won't be in jeopardy. 

sway：影響力
financiers：(大口)投資家.
amenable：| əmíːnəb(ə)l |　快く応じて
grace：(仕事･債務返済などの)猶予(期間)
jeopardy：(損失･危害･失敗などの)危険, 危機(risk)

Spain will have two problems of its own to deal with next year. The country's minority government will have difficulty pushing through legislation, suggesting that it will make only modest economic and institutional reforms in 2018. Moreover, Catalan secessionism will remain a concern for Madrid as friction persists between the central and regional governments. Though Catalonia won't secede from Spain next year, questions about the region's future will linger. 

legislation：法律の制定, 立法.
secessionism：脱退論, 離脱[分離]主義.

イタリーはこの5月に選挙があるが、相変わらず不安定で、五つ星運動や左翼の動きが反EUでも、ユーロからの撤退は考えられない。また、国内の改革が連立政権が出来たとしても、さして進展はない。下手をすると、首相が決まらなければ、また選挙になるかもしれない。EUの懸念材料ではあるが、ギリシャはなんとか債権者との交渉で、満期返済の延長などで持ちこたえるだろう。もちろん、国内の改革を約束すればの話だが。スペインは政権が多数派ではないので、大した改革はできないし、カタロニアの独立運動の課題がくすぶっている。

水曜日。今日は海野塾があり、真田社長が上海から出席する。そのため、夜は銀座の寿司屋で盛大な懇親会をする。ではまた明日。

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT

on an equal footing with ：と対等の関係で.
emboldened：〈人〉を勇気[元気]づける, 励ます

A lower price does not necessarily mean a better buy.：安価な物が必ずしも買い得だとはいえない

oversight ：監視

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT

The captain surrendered his ship to the enemy.：船長は敵に船を明け渡した

without a hitch：何の障害もなく.
in a bid to win support：支持を得ようとして

lay  bare：〈物〉をむき出しにする; 〈隠された物事･事実など〉を暴露する, 公にする.

2018 Annual Forecast　(20)

2018年の予測 (20)





Russian Economic Woes
The contests, slated for March and September 2018, respectively, will serve as a test for President Vladimir Putin and his detractors alike. Despite the buzz in Western media, however, Putin has no credible challenger for his office. His opponents represent an array of ideologies and personalities, and the government will seize on their differences to keep the opposition divided. Still, the ruling United Russia party understands that the swelling tide of protest movements, particularly among young Russians, requires a new strategy. The Kremlin, to that end, will roll out fresh messaging to target the youth vote and try to energize the electorate. And in the likely event that Putin wins another term in office, his administration will use his victory to restore faith in his legitimacy. The various opposition groups, in turn, will hold protests across Russia in the run-up to the vote and may even stage mass demonstrations around Putin's re-election. 

Woes：災い, 困難
slated：する予定である; 
detractors：彼に批判的な人々
electorate：有権者
legitimacy：正当性

Unrest won't be the only political challenge awaiting Putin in his next term. Infighting within the Kremlin will increase next year. While powerful elites such as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and oil tycoon Igor Sechin break with Putin to pursue their own agendas, the president will consolidate a coalition of his most loyal advisers to protect him and help him implement his policies. Putin won't fully crack down on the renegades, but he could undertake reshufflings in his administration to limit their power. The result will be an ever-more centralized, authoritarian presidency and a progressively more fragmented political system. 

Unrest：(社会･政治的な)不安, 不穏(な状況), 不満
Infighting：(組織内での)内輪もめ, 内部抗争, 内ゲバ.
break with：| breɪk | 決別する
renegades：反逆者
undertake：〈事〉を始める, …に乗り出す, 着手する

Compared with the presidential election, the regional votes promise to be a tighter race for United Russia. Liberal opposition groups made gains in this year's regional elections. To slow their progress in the 2018 contest, the Kremlin will keep exploiting the divisions between them. Moscow may also crack down to try to curb protests across the country, while allowing some demonstrations to continue as a way to ease the political pressure building in Russia. 

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands 
Just beyond Russia's borders, the new year will bring its share of activity and instability. Ukraine, for example, will spend 2018 gearing up for its own presidential and parliamentary elections to follow in 2019 — its first since the snap votes that followed the Euromaidan uprising in 2014. Leading up to the 2019 elections, protests and government shake-ups are likely, and early legislative votes are possible. But the country won't deviate from its Western-oriented foreign policy as it weathers another year of war in the eastern part of its territory. 

snap vote：抜き打ち投票
Euromaidan：2013年11月からウクライナ大統領ヴィクトル・ヤヌコーヴィチによる欧州連合協定調印棚上げに抗議するために、ウクライナ・キエフ野党や市民が集まった独立広場から変わった名前である。
shake-ups：激しく揺さぶること.
legislative votes：議会により可決された投票
deviate：【基準などから】逸脱する
weathers：〈嵐･困難など〉を無事に乗り切る, うまく切り抜ける

Though the United States and Russia will proceed with negotiations over the conflict in Donbass — and may even make some headway on the issue of U.N. peacekeepers in the region — a broader resolution will remain elusive in 2018. As a result, Ukraine will continue to receive political, economic and security backing from the United States and its Western allies while it strives to further its economic, energy and security integration with Poland and the Baltic States. Russia, meanwhile, will ramp up its hybrid warfare campaign — including cyberattacks and assassinations — against the country and its supporters. 

Donbass：ウクライナ政府軍と分離独立派による武力衝突が続く同国東部のドンバスで、戦地から戻った兵士らのうち約500人が自殺した、とウクライナ内務省が発表した。内戦が始まってから3年がたつが、収束の見通しは立っていない。ドンバスはドネツク州とルガンスク（ルハンシク）州からなるロシア国境沿いの地域。2014年2月、ロシア寄りの大統領が政権を追われたのを機に、ドンバスで親ロシア派グループの反発が起き、武力衝突に発展した。
elusive：〈結果などが〉手に入れにくい, 達成しがたい.
ramp up：増やす
assassinations：暗殺

Southwest of Ukraine, elections could plunge Moldova into political turmoil next year. If the November vote goes in President Igor Dodon's favor — and to the detriment of the coalition that has long ruled the country — Moldova could start rolling back its efforts at integration with the European Union, at odds with the interests of pro-European groups. At the same time, it would probably also begin collaborating more closely with Russia on economic and security issues. Large protests before and after the elections are possible. 

Moldova：モルドバ共和国、東ヨーロッパに位置する共和制国家。内陸国であり、西にルーマニアと、他の三方はウクライナと国境を接する。旧ソビエト連邦（ソ連）を構成していた国家の一つであった。現在、ドニエストル川東岸地域が沿ドニエストル共和国として事実上、独立状態にある。
at odds with：〜と不和で、〜と争って、〜と意見が食い違って、〜との関係が悪化して

Next year will kick off a busy election season in the Caucasus, too. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will each hold presidential elections in 2018. More than the outcomes of these votes, though, the larger states nearby will influence foreign policy in the region. Azerbaijan and Georgia, for instance, will continue their efforts to forge closer energy, infrastructure and security ties with Turkey, while Armenia strengthens its military partnership with Russia and fortifies its economic links with Iran. Along the way, Tehran and Ankara will be careful not to challenge Moscow's strategic position in the Caucasus. Russia will remain the primary arbiter in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, working to prevent the dispute from escalating while at the same time supplying both sides with arms. 

arbiter：裁決[決定]者; (ある分野の)権威(者).仲裁者(arbitrator).
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict：ナゴルノカラバフ問題 アゼルバイジャン南部のナゴルノカラバフ自治州のアルメニアへの帰属問題。

ロシアは今年選挙があるが、大統領はプーチンが当選するだろうが、地方選挙では苦戦するだろう。若者のデモもある程度は許容するだろう。政府内部の権力の問題もあるが、それはまとめることが出来るだろう。ウクライナの紛争はウクライナがアメリカとか欧州の支援を受ける一方で、ロシアは攻撃をし続けるだろう。モルドバは大統領派が勝てばロシア寄りになるだろう。中央アジア諸国は今年が選挙の年だがそれぞれ、近隣大国の影響を受けることになる。それはロシアであり、トルコとイランだ。ナゴルノカラバフ問題はロシアが仕切るだろう。

日曜日。ではまた明日。

2018 Annual Forecast　(19)

2018年の予測 (19)

Echoes of the Cold War 
Though the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East will take up more of Russia's attention in the coming year, Moscow's relations with the West will be no less important. Tensions are liable to rise in 2018 between Russia and the United States. Washington has signaled that it may ramp up its pressure on Russia in the coming year through a variety of means, including a heavier sanctions regime and lethal arms sales to Ukraine. At the same time, the United States is building up its ballistic missile defenses in Europe and Asia. The campaign will further strain its bilateral arms treaties with Russia, which will be all the more difficult to renegotiate since Washington has threatened Moscow with punitive measures for allegedly violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. 

take up：〈申し出･挑戦･機会など〉を受け入れる
liable：しそうだ

Having come to grips with life under existing sanctions, Moscow is determined to avoid incurring more sanctions from Washington in 2018. With that in mind, Russia will highlight areas in which it would be willing either to work with the United States or to negotiate concessions, such as the peace process in Syria, talks with North Korea or the conflict in Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, will prepare for its ties with Washington to further deteriorate by shoring up its relationships in Asia and in the Middle East and by pursuing military buildups in its borderlands, for instance by permanently deploying the Iskander missile system in its exclave of Kaliningrad. 

come to grips with：〈困難な状況など〉に真剣に取り組む.
determined：確たる意志を持った, 意志の強い
incurring：こうむる
willing：する意志[気]がある, …するのをいとわない
ties：関係
deteriorate：悪化する
shoring：を補強する(up).
exclave：本国から離れて, 他国に囲まれた領土

Adding to Russia's sanctions worries, the European Union will vote to maintain its punitive measures on the country throughout the next year. The bloc, however, won't follow suit if the United States slaps new sanctions on Moscow for political interference, despite the fact that 2018 will give Russia ample opportunity to meddle in Europe's affairs. As Italy prepares to hold general elections by May, the Kremlin will use its tried-and-true weapons of hybrid warfare — disinformation, propaganda and cyberattacks — in hopes of bringing a more sympathetic government to power in Rome. 

vote：選ぶ　提案する
follow suit：先例に倣う 真似をする
ample：ample opportunity [evidence] 十分な機会[証拠].
meddle：干渉する
tried-and-true：実証済みの
An administration led by the Five Star Movement, after all, could perhaps break the unanimous vote required to extend the EU sanctions against Russia in the future. Influencing the elections' outcome won't be easy, as Moscow learned during the recent political races in France and Germany. Even so, Russia will keep up its efforts to sow discord among the bloc's member states and their electorates, even if it doesn't accomplish its goals for the Italian election. 

sow：不快な感情･状況など〉の種をまく
accomplish：〈変化･目標など〉を遂げる

Russia's Internal Struggle
At home, Moscow will have a host of problems to contend with next year. Russia's worsening economic and financial straits will be one of its biggest challenges. After officially pulling out of recession this year, the country is settling into a prolonged period of stagnation. Banks are failing in near-record numbers, regional governments are defaulting on their debts, more and more businesses are going bankrupt, and a growing number of state firms need bailing out. These issues will stretch the Kremlin's finances, sap its sovereign wealth funds and force the government to borrow at least $18 billion more abroad. 

straits：(主に財政的な)難局, 苦境, 困難, 貧窮
stagnation：不況, 景気停滞.
near-record：新記録に近い数字
sap：徐々に奪う

Finding funding could become even more difficult if the United States imposes sanctions to discourage Western markets from lending to Russia, though Moscow's growing economic ties in Asia and the Middle East will give it some alternative options. Either way, Russia's financial woes are too great for Moscow to shoulder. The Kremlin will have to let some businesses, banks and maybe even a regional government fail as it works to manage the fallout to avoid destabilizing the political system ahead of presidential and regional elections in 2018. 

financial woes：金銭的苦難.
fallout：後遺症

ロシアはアジアと中東に関心を高めているが、アメリカはロシアに更なる制裁をかけようとしていて、また軍事協定においてもうまく行っていない。ヨーロッパはこの追加制裁には乗り気ではない。ロシアは今の制裁のせいで、景気が低迷していて、今年の選挙にも影響が出いるような状態だ。そのためロシアは西側から資金調達をしなければならないが、今の制裁があるので、資金調達がままならない。アジアとか中東から資金の目当てを考えられなくはないが、経済の安定を図らなければならない。

土曜日。今日は海野塾があり、午前は台湾で、午後は苑田講師の日本の精神がある。ではまた明日。