2017年07月21日

よりたくさんのお金とより少ない自由 東南アジアの将来は繁栄するが自由が少ないようだ。この地域がより豊かになっても、民主主義は後退している。

 More money, less freedom
South-East Asia’s future looks prosperous but illiberal
Democracy is losing ground even as the region grows richer
Jul 18th 2017 | MAE SOT

よりたくさんのお金とより少ない自由
東南アジアの将来は繁栄するが自由が少ないようだ。
この地域がより豊かになっても、民主主義は後退している。

THE young woman with the microphone cajoles, hectors and wheedles customers with the breathless enthusiasm of a livestock auctioneer at a county fair. She is standing behind a table stacked high with blue jeans; most of the milling crowd is dressed in lungyis, Myanmar’s skirt-like national dress. The fancy mall around them is anchored by a huge department store, dotted with banks and mobile-phone stalls and topped by a cinema and video arcade.

cajoles:おだてる
hectors:怒鳴り散らす
wheedles:甘い言葉でそそのかす
livestock:家畜
stacked:山積みになった
milling:ひしめき合った
lungyis:


anchored:支える
dotted:点在する
topped:最上階に

Myanmar has been growing so fast—by an average of 7.5% a year for the past five years—that the boom is reverberating in Mae Sot, just across the border in Thailand. Two years ago, says a longtime resident, the site of the mall was a swamp, and Mae Sot was a poky little border town with two small grocery stores. Today huge supermarkets, car dealers, electronics outlets and farm-equipment showrooms line the wide new road from the border into town, patronised by a steady stream of Burmese shoppers. Skeletons of future apartment blocks loom; the Thai government is building a new international airport. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Myanmar’s growth will hit 8% next year. 

reverberating:影響を及ぼす
Mae Sot:a district in western Thailand that shares a border with Burma to the west.
swamp:沼地
poky:みずぼらしい
Skeletons:骨格
loom:ぼうっと見えてくる

The region is full of such stories. Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines and Vietnam have been growing only slightly more slowly. Overall, the ten countries of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) grew at an annual rate of 5% over the past five years: not quite as fast as China or India, but much faster than Europe, Japan or America. The region’s 625m-odd people are growing richer and better educated; they will live longer, healthier and more prosperous lives than their parents. Of course, plenty of poverty remains—most people in Myanmar are still subsistence farmers—but the region’s economic trends are promising. 

subsistence:必要最低限の生活 自給農家

It was not always obvious that the South-East Asian economies would do so well. Only a generation ago Myanmar had been cut off from the world by despotic generals; Cambodia’s 25-year-old civil war was still sputtering; and Vietnam was only just beginning to experiment with some timid market reforms. The wealthier countries in the region, meanwhile, had seen their economies, and the underlying models of growth, shattered by the Asian financial crisis. 

despotic:独裁的な
sputtering:ぱちぱちと音を立てている
timid:自信なさそうな
shattered:打ちのめされて

The crisis proved salutary. Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand all adopted sounder macroeconomic policies and made some effort to curb the cronyism that had accompanied earlier growth. Nominally communist Laos and Vietnam and autarkic Myanmar all embraced free markets, up to a point. The days of nationalisation and central planning seem to be over. In much of the region inefficient and coddled state-owned businesses endure, and rent-seeking, corruption and protectionism are all more common than they should be. But across South-East Asia, liberal economics has won the argument. 

salutary:教訓与えてくれる
cronyism:身びいき
autarkic:経済的自給自足の
up to a point:完全ではないがあるところまでは
nationalisation:国有化
coddled:甘やかす
rent-seeking:民間企業などが政府や官僚組織へ働きかけを行い、法制度や政治政策の変更を行なうことで、自らに都合よく規制を設定したり、または都合よく規制の緩和をさせるなどして、超過利潤(レント)を得るための活動を指す。

Politically, however, the region is moving in the opposite direction. The Asian crisis may have brought huge economic hardship, but it did at least unseat Suharto, Indonesia’s strongman of 20 years, and instigate political reforms elsewhere. In the years that followed, imperfect democracies in Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand appeared to be gaining strength. And Myanmar, after years of isolation and repression, embarked on an unexpected transition to democracy. 

instigate :着手する
repression:抑圧
embarked:始める

But hoped-for openings never came in Laos and Vietnam, where the Communist Party has always been nakedly repressive. Singapore remains an illiberal, albeit effective, technocracy. The leaders of Malaysia and Cambodia, Najib Razak and Hun Sen, have proved depressingly adept at locking up critics and persecuting opponents. Cambodia’s most prominent opposition politician, Sam Rainsy, lives in exile to avoid imprisonment for a spurious conviction for defamation. Opposition figures in Malaysia find themselves in court on charges as varied as corruption and sodomy. 

nakedly :あからさまに
illiberal:反自由主義の
technocracy:技術家集団
depressingly:気が滅入るほど
adept:熟達して 
spurious:間違った
defamation:誹謗中傷

The junta that seized power in Thailand three years ago promises an election next year. Even in the unlikely event that it is free and fair, the constitution—which the army wrote and the new king signed in May—creates a junta-led Senate, imposes the generals’ 20-year plan on the country and provides ample grounds to remove any elected leader whom the army finds lacking. All this is designed to prevent voters from electing the “wrong” leaders, in the army’s view, as they have done at every opportunity over the past 15 years. 

ample :十分すぎるほどの
find lacking:よくないとみなされている

Democratic institutions are not yet quite that weak in the region’s two biggest countries, Indonesia and the Philippines, but in both liberals have more cause for fear than hope. Filipino voters, justifiably frustrated by the way that a few prominent families dominate politics, and by how recent economic growth has failed to reduce the high poverty rate, elected Rodrigo Duterte president last year. Alone among the five candidates, he seemed to care about ordinary people; his brutal anti-drug campaign has appalled foreigners but is popular at home. 

appalled:ショックを受ける

Mr Duterte reminisces fondly about the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos and seems to crave dictatorial power himself. He has declared martial law on the southern island of Mindanao, and often muses about doing the same nationally. He veers between indifference and hostility to troublesome principles such as due process, the separation of powers and the rule of law—all of which need shoring up, not weakening. 

reminisces:思い出にふける
fondly:浅はかにも
crave:切望する
muses:考え込む
veers:急に方向を変える
due process:正当な法の手続き
shoring:補強する

An election for governor of Jakarta in April, meanwhile, has left many Indonesians fearful for their country’s tradition of religious tolerance. Islamist agitators campaigned against the Christian incumbent, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, falsely claiming that he had insulted the Koran. Anies Baswedan, one of his rivals, embraced their shameless attempt to stir up sectarian tension, and won. Prabowo Subianto, a tub-thumping nationalist who lost the presidential election in 2014, backed Mr Baswedan. The fear is that Mr Prabowo, inspired by Mr Baswedan’s success, will try to foster similar divisions at the national level. 

falsely:誤って
embraced:熱心に考えを採用する
stir:引き起こす
tub-thumping:熱弁を振るう
foster:心に抱く

But it is Myanmar that most encapsulates the region’s democratic reversal. When the army ceded power last year to Aung San Suu Kyi, its Nobel-prize-winning opponent of 30 years, expectations were astronomically high, even though the constitution the generals had written severely limited her powers. That has made her government’s craven and repressive acts all the more bewildering. It has charged more reporters with defamation than did her military-backed predecessor. She has been shamefully silent about the continuing persecution of the Rohingya, a Muslim minority, not even admitting, let alone trying to stop, the army’s well-documented campaign of rape, murder and destruction against Rohingya villages. It does not help that since Donald Trump became president, America, long the loudest champion of liberal values in the region, has more or less let the subject drop. 

encapsulates:包む・要約する
reversal:反転
ceded:譲渡する
craven:ひどく臆病な
repressive:弾圧的な
bewildering:戸惑わせる
let drop:止めにする

東南アジアの経済は急激に活発になって来ているが、何処の国もそれぞれ特有の政治的な課題を持っていて、なかなか民主主義が定着しそうにない。ミャンマーの経済が飛躍しているが、Aung San Suu Kyiの動きはロヒンヤへの対応に見られるようにおぼつかない。シンガポールは反自由主義だ。フィリピンはミンダナオに厳戒令が敷かれていて、彼はマルコスの憧れている。ベトナムやラオスは社会主義国で、あからさまに抑圧的だ。マレーシアはラザクが反対派を不法に押さえ込んでいる。

土曜日。今日は海野塾と出版記念パーティがある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 22:03コメント(0) 

2017年07月20日

上院の健康法案 トランプケア 第三版 上院の改定した健康法案の提案は良い提案なのか。そしてそれは通るのか。

The Senate’s health bill
Trumpcare, version three
Is the Senate’s revised health-care proposal a good bill? And will it pass?
Democracy in America
Jul 14th 2017by J.P.P.

上院の健康法案
トランプケア 第三版
上院の改定した健康法案の提案は良い提案なのか。そしてそれは通るのか。



IS THE Senate’s revised health-care proposal a good bill? And will it pass? Ideally these two questions would be related. But this is sausage-making, so they are not. Let’s take the first one first. 

If you want something approaching universal health-care coverage, there are three ways to do it. One is for the government to tax citizens and then use revenue to fund their care (the single-payer model). The second is to subsidise people to buy coverage. This only works if the subsidies are generous enough for the decision to buy insurance to be a no-brainer. The third is to compel people to buy insurance, by law or by a fine. 

no-brainer:直ぐにできること

At the moment America does all three. Veterans, the elderly, the poor and inhabitants of reservations for native Americans all have versions of the single-payer system, via the Veterans Health Administration, Medicare, Medicaid and the Indian Health Service. The care people receive from these programmes is often poor, but that’s another story. Since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, the federal government has also subsised people to buy insurance and introduced fines for those who do not. The result of this mixed system has been a decline in the number of people who have no health insurance, from a high of 18% in 2013 to 12% now, according to Gallup. That still leaves a lot of people with no coverage. This could be fixed by expanding the share covered by the single-payer system, by increasing the subsidies for buying insurance or by increasing the fines for not doing so. Or you could do all three. 

reservations:アメリカ先住民の特別保留地
passage:可決
aka:also known as

Of course, this logic only applies if you start from the assumption that laws should be written with the aim of covering as many people as possible. Most Republicans in Congress do not share this assumption. They would, of course, like it if everyone had insurance. But they do not think it is the government’s role to make it happen (there are, of course, some people who take a different view within the Republican Party). 

Shorn of that aim, the need to balance single-payer coverage, subsidies and fines no longer applies. The Senate’s bill duly gets rid of the fines for not buying insurance. It reduces the value of subsidies and it also reduces spending on Medicaid, the programme for the poorest, compared with current plans. The bill’s supporters point out that Medicaid spending still rises under the revised bill, just not as fast. That is true, but the Congressional Budget Office thinks that under the first version of the Senate bill, 10m fewer people would be enrolled in Medicaid than under the current law. 

Shorn :剥ぎ取る
duly:要求どおりに
Medicaid:低所得者・身障者向け保険 

The Senate bill also allows plans to be sold that do not cover the “essential benefits” laid out by the Affordable Care Act. These include things like paediatrics, mental-health treatment and childbirth. Removing them means insurers will be able to sell cheaper plans, which could mean more people buy them. But customers might find they are not covered for treatment that they end up needing. And the insurance they buy could prove useless in a different way, too. 

paediatrics:小児科

Obamacare limited the cost of deductibles (for those who haven’t navigated the system, this is the amount of money a person pays for care before their insurance kicks in, a system designed to prevent frivolous trips to the doctor). A plan with a $10,000 deductible and a skimpy set of benefits would be much cheaper than anything currently on sale. The downside is that for a family with a low income, who cannot afford a $10,000 deductible, such a plan would be useless. 

deductibles:自己負担額
frivolous :つまらない
skimpy:不十分な

1万ドル以上でないと保険の給付がないという意味

Two other quick things to note that have not received the attention they might: first, there is a lot of language in the bill that seeks to reduce funding for abortions. Second, there are provisions aimed at preserving the number of beds in psychiatric wards. In the mental-health world there is a long-running argument between those who think patients who are mentally ill should be compelled to receive treatment, even against their will, and those who do not. The Republican position on this leans towards compulsion, hence the language about not cutting the number of beds on psychiatric wards. 

language:言い回し
psychiatric:精神科の
compelled:強制する

An ideal health-care law would not only increase the number of people covered. It would do more to bring down the cost of care while increasing the quality. This is hard, because cost and quality push in opposite directions. After having parts of my internal organs removed in a single-payer system (Britain’s NHS) and in the American system (using employer-provided insurance), I can attest that for those fortunate enough to be able to pay, the American system is miles better. 

attest:証言する

That is a direct function of its high cost. The Senate bill sets up funds for innovation, as Obamacare did, but the trade-off between cost and quality will not be innovated away any time soon. To recap: the revised proposal would probably leave more Americans without usable health care and it does not do much to reduce the cost or to increase the quality of care. It is not a good bill. 

Will it pass? Unlike the first version of the Senate bill, this one does not give a very large tax-cut to those who have the most expensive insurance plans. That softens one line of criticism, that the original bill was a tax cut disguised as a health reform. It also gives the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, money to bring over wavering senators with funding for things they are particularly concerned about (for example, the bill contains money for treating the opioid epidemic, which is killing an American every 15 minutes). Three “no” votes would stop it in its tracks. There are two already, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Susan Collins of Maine. But senators who have campaigned for years to repeal Obamacare are now being given the chance to vote for something that would mean less regulation of the insurance market and allow states more leeway to do as they please. I think it’s 50:50 whether the bill, or something like it, becomes law. 

disguised:事実を隠す
wavering:浮足立つ
opioid epidemic:麻薬利用の爆発的拡大
leeway:自由裁量

トランプケアは加入義務はない。小児科や、心療内科は含まれるがオバマケアのようには完備されてはない。一万ドル以上でないと医療補助が得られない。低所得者向けの保険の費用負担を減額していく。などであるが、健康な若い人は良いのだが、低所得で高齢者には不利な法案だ。結局反対者が共和党から3人出たので、今回もこの法案は通過しなかった。

金曜日。今朝はEarly Birdsの会。午後は大角さんと欒さんとの面談。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:51コメント(0) 

2017年07月19日

トランプの家族はなぜアメリカが世襲のしきたりを避けるのかの例を示している。 身内の忠誠心は世間の信用と国家の双方に悪影響を与える力がある。

The Trump family demonstrates why America shuns hereditary rule
Loyalty between relatives has the power to poison both reputations and nations
United States
Jul 12th 2017

トランプの家族はなぜアメリカが世襲のしきたりを避けるのかの例を示している。
身内の忠誠心は世間の信用と国家の双方に悪影響を与える力がある。

shuns:避ける
hereditary:世襲の

THE hereditary principle is not just unAmerican but harms the children of great men, Benjamin Franklin declared soon after the revolutionary war, as rumours flew of plots to establish a new aristocracy with George Washington at its head. To honour parents is reasonable, Franklin averred. But to reward descendants for an accident of birth is “not only groundless and absurd but often hurtful to that posterity”. 

unAmerican:アメリカ的でない
great men:偉大な人々
aristocracy:貴族政治
averred:断固主張する
accident of birth:たまたま生まれが幸いして
posterity:子孫

Much about President Donald Trump would dismay the Founding Fathers. The rows now embroiling his children and son-in-law would surely have nudged them towards outright alarm. Even Franklin, a prescient sort, might have struggled to imagine an American president’s child expressing willingness to receive “very high-level and sensitive information” about a political opponent from a hostile foreign power—as Mr Trump’s eldest son, Donald junior, did during the election of 2016. But long before that was known, the president’s use of his progeny as White House counsellors and as managers of his property empire—spurning advice to place his businesses in a blind trust—posed a grave threat to checks and balances crafted by the founders. 

dismay:失望させる
rows:大騒ぎ
embroiling:巻き込む
nudged:に触れる
outright alarm:あからさまな懸念
prescient :先見の明のある
progeny:子孫
spurning:拒否する

Defenders of nepotism—for they do exist—argue that close relatives are able to offer presidents more candid advice than any outsider. They note that by some counts 16 presidential children have worked in the White House, variously as private secretaries (a tradition begun by the 6th president, John Quincy Adams, himself a president’s son), as unpaid gatekeepers (cf, Anna Roosevelt, daughter of Franklin), or as formal advisers (Dwight Eisenhower’s son John served as a national security aide). But such a defence of nepotism breaks down when America has a bad president. When ordinary aides find themselves in that unhappy situation, a sense of duty to their country, to their office or to the rule of law may prompt them to question furtive actions and poor decisions, or to resign. 

nepotism:身内びいき・縁故者登用
candid:ざっくばらんな
furtive:人目を忍んだ

Other aides may be more strongly moved by self-interest, and a desire to keep their good name from being soiled by an unfit boss. But when a child wields power at the pleasure of a parent, fidelity to country or to the law must vie with deeper, more visceral loyalties. That tug of loyalties is more painful still when a parent is like Mr Trump, a clannish, vengeful man who, by his own son’s account, would send him to school with the growled warning: “Don’t trust anyone.” As for trying to preserve a free-standing good name, that is tricky if you are called Donald Trump junior. 

soiled:汚れた
wields:権力を握る
fidelity:忠誠
vie:張り合う
visceral:本能的な
clannish:排他的な
vengeful:執念深い
by his own son’s account:彼の息子の言うところによれば
growled:文句を言う
free-standing:支え無しで立っている
As for :はどうかというと
tricky:微妙だ

Checks and balances are also disrupted when a child-counsellor to a president is at fault. Mr Trump may still resent the fact that he had to sack his first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, for fibbing about contacts with the Russians. But the systems of control and accountability that caught Mr Flynn, starting with a free press, did Mr Trump a favour. Senior Trump administration officials and Republicans in Congress found Mr Flynn, an angry and conspiratorial ex-general, almost impossible to work with. 

disrupted:崩壊する
at fault:誤って
resent:に憤慨する
fibbing:ちょっとした嘘をつく
favour:トランプのために役立つ
conspiratorial:陰謀じみた
ex-general:普通でない

In contrast, any hint of disrespect for a Trump child provokes indignation from the president, so that few Republicans in Congress care to exercise robust oversight of his daughter, Ivanka, or her husband, Jared Kushner, who both serve as senior advisers, with Mr Kushner wielding influence over dossiers from domestic economics to peace in the Middle East. In February Mr Trump attacked Nordstrom, a clothing chain, for dropping a fashion line branded by Ivanka, complaining on both his personal and government Twitter accounts that she had been “treated so unfairly”. 

indignation:憤り
robust:断固とした
care:気にしない
oversight :みすごし
dossiers:関係資料

The president took to Twitter again this week to defend his daughter’s role, enraged by scoffing in the world press after he asked her to fill his seat briefly at the G20 summit. A press secretary for Mr Trump felt obliged to denounce such questioning of his daughter as an “outrageous attack against a White House senior adviser”. 

enraged:ひどく腹を立てる
scoffing:あざ笑う

Congress has been feeble in policing potential conflicts of interest involving the Trump Organisation, headed by Donald junior and his brother Eric, as foreign governments book rooms or receptions at Trump properties, including a hotel a few minutes from the White House. 

feeble:説得力を欠く

Struggling to engage with a nationalist, America First president with a limited attention-span, foreign governments are learning to use his family to sway him. Angela Merkel of Germany invited Ivanka Trump to a summit on women’s empowerment. Arab delegations in Washington enthuse that dealing with Mr Kushner is a great comfort, as talking to rulers’ relations is the Arab way. As for Asia, “because China is not remotely interested in the democratic health of the United States” its leaders and tycoons are happy to flatter Mr Trump or do business deals with his family, giving China an advantage over more squeamish Western powers, sighs a diplomat who sees this process up close. 

sway:ゆさぶる
enthuse:興奮して語る
comfort:安心感
flatter:お世辞を言う
squeamish :気難しい
sighs:ため息をつく
up close:間近に

The father, the son and the holey Russia defence
In private, envoys to Washington compare the Trump children to princes and princesses in a royal court. That is a bit unfair to princes: such modern examples as William and Harry in Britain talk of duty, of humility and of shunning politics precisely because they are unelected. The Trump children are more self-congratulatory, praising their father for selflessly giving up a life that was “the epitome of the American dream” to serve as president. Donald junior bragged to the Republican National Convention about youthful visits to construction sites, so that: “we’re the only children of billionaires” as happy in a bulldozer as in a car.

humility:謙遜 
shunning:避ける
congratulatory:お祝いの
selflessly:私心のない
epitome:典型
bragged:自慢する

Many grassroots conservatives cheer along. Last October Lexington watched Donald junior tell Republican campaign volunteers in Reno, Nevada, that his family was “sick” of “disgusting” media attacks, prompting one to reassure him: “I’d like to thank your family for going through the hell you are going through.” 

reassure:元気づける

America’s founders recoiled from the hereditary principle. They feared a politics of tribal factions, too. The Trump clan is proving them right on both counts. 

recoiled:嫌がる

トランプの家族の登用を批判している。目に余るものがある。かっての大統領で、そうした人もいたが、トランプの重用は度を越している。信頼関係があるのは逆に、子供の判断が間違えたときとか、彼らを切れるかとか、そうした問題が出てくるだろう。そもそも今の現実はどう見ても独裁政権だ。周りの議員が彼にそうしたことを言う雰囲気にない。トランプは報道を無視している。

木曜日。ではまた明日。


swingby_blog at 22:57コメント(0) 

2017年07月18日

健康保険のないアメリカの大人の数は今年、200万人になる。

The Number of U.S. Adults Without Health Insurance Has Risen by Two Million This Year
Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar / AP
Jul 10, 2017

健康保険のないアメリカの大人の数は今年、200万人になる。

Protestors Rally Against Health Care Bill At Marco Rubio's Miami Area Office

(WASHINGTON) — The number of U.S. adults without health insurance has grown by some 2 million this year, according to a major new survey that finds recent coverage gains beginning to erode. The new numbers highlight what's at stake as Congress returns to an unresolved debate over Republican proposals to roll back much of former President Barack Obama's health care law.

erode:侵食される
at stake:問題となっている・危険にさらされている

The Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index, published Monday, found that the uninsured rate among U.S. adults was 11.7% in the second three months of this year, compared with a record low of 10.9% at the end of last year. Though small, the change was statistically significant, survey analysts noted. While "Obamacare" has remained politically divisive, it had helped drive the uninsured rate to historic lows as some 20 million people gained coverage. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., plans to check vital signs on his GOP bill as senators trickle back to Washington from a July 4 break that many spent listening to constituents vent about health care.

divisive:意見不一致を起こす
trickle:少しずつ流れる
vent:感情を発散させる

McConnell is seen as a master legislative strategist, but there's no sign he's secured enough votes to pass a bill. He can only afford to lose two out of 52 Republican senators. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that at least 22 million more people would become uninsured under Republican legislation.

afford:出来る状態にある

McConnell has been considering easing some of the bill's Medicaid cuts, beefing up health care tax credits to help people buy private insurance and adding billions of dollars to counter the opioid epidemic. That might comfort GOP moderates. To placate conservatives, McConnell is weighing demands to make it easier for insurers to offer skimpier policies.

beefing:強化する
Medicaid:メディケード, (公費)医療補償(制度)〘低所得者身体障害者に対する公的医療扶助(制度) 
opioid:《生化学・薬学》オピオイド モルヒネ様作用を示す合成麻酔薬(強力な鎮痛薬)
epidemic:伝染病
placate:なだめる
skimpier:不十分な

He's also admonished fellow Republicans that they may find themselves negotiating with Democratic leader Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York if they don't close ranks. In that case, McConnell said he'd aim for a limited package propping up troubled insurance markets around the country.

close ranks:陣営を固める
propping:テコ入れする

The Gallup-Sharecare survey serves as a kind of early indicator, publishing several months before the nimblest government surveys. The most recent government report found that progress reducing the number of uninsured stalled in 2016, after five consecutive years of coverage gains under Obama. 

Read More: President Trump's Latest Health Care Push Could Repeal Obamacare and Do Nothing Else Peering at this year, Gallup-Sharecare found an erosion of progress, with the number of uninsured edging up again. It estimated nearly 2 million dropped out of coverage. The losses were concentrated among younger adults and people buying their own health insurance policies, the survey found. That may be a reflection of rising premiums and dwindling choices in the insurance markets created under Obama.

nimblest:敏捷な・如才のない
stalled:止まる
Repeal:撤回する
Peering :凝視する
edging:少しずつ上昇する

Also, President Donald Trump has branded his predecessor's leading domestic achievement a "disaster" while pursuing its repeal. Insurers say Trump administration actions are contributing to double-digit premium increases for next year. Gallup-Sharecare found that the uninsured rate rose by 1.9 percentage points among adults aged 18-25 since the end of last year, and 1.5 points among those aged 26-34.

Participation by young adults is considered vital for keeping health insurance premiums in check. But young adults are also likely to enjoy good health and may not recognize value in having coverage. The Gallup-Sharecare survey is an ongoing effort based on interviews with about 500 people a day. It was previously called the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index.Results are based on telephone interviews conducted April 1-June 30, with a random sample of 45,087 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point.

トランプの健康法案はメディケイドの削減を緩和したり、税額控除を検討したり、伝染病治療の予算を計上したりしようとしているが、結局、医療保険が値上がりすることになり、若者の加入者が減少するだろう。そのため、200万人の保険未加入者が増加することになるだろう。この法案を通すためには法律の改悪内容を是正しなければ通らないだろう。

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。


swingby_blog at 20:54コメント(0) 

2017年07月17日

嘘のニュース:あなたの目にはまだ何も入ってこない。 嘘の出来事を音声やビデオでもっともらしく作る。(2)

Mr Goodfellow turned to a familiar concept: competition. Instead of asking the software to generate something useful in a vacuum, he gave it another piece of software—an adversary—to push against. The adversary would look at the generated images and judge whether they were “real”, meaning similar to those that already existed in the generative software’s training database. By trying to fool the adversary, the generative software would learn to create images that look real, but are not. The adversarial software, knowing what the real world looked like, provides meaning and boundaries for its generative kin. 

fool:騙す
meaning:意図するもの
boundaries:限界
kin:同類

Today, GANs can produce small, postage-stamp-sized images of birds from a sentence of instruction. Tell the GAN that “this bird is white with some black on its head and wings, and has a long orange beak”, and it will draw that for you. It is not perfect, but at a glance the machine’s imaginings pass as real. 

beak:くちばし

Although images of birds the size of postage stamps are not going to rattle society, things are moving fast. In the past five years, software powered by similar algorithms has reduced error rates in classifying photos from 25% to just a few percent. Image generation is expected to make similar progress. Mike Tyka, a machine-learning artist at Google, has already generated images of imagined faces with a resolution of 768 pixels a side, more than twice as big as anything previously achieved. 

rattle:ガラガラ音を立てる

Mr Goodfellow now works for Google Brain, the search giant’s in-house AI research division (he spoke to The Economist while at OpenAI, a non-profit research organisation). When pressed for an estimate, he suggests that the generation of YouTube fakes that are very plausible may be possible within three years. Others think it might take longer. But all agree that it is a question of when, not if. “We think that AI is going to change the kinds of evidence that we can trust,” says Mr Goodfellow.

Yet even as technology drives new forms of artifice, it also offers new ways to combat it. One form of verification is to demand that recordings come with their metadata, which show when, where and how they were captured. Knowing such things makes it possible to eliminate a photograph as a fake on the basis, for example, of a mismatch with known local conditions at the time. A rather recherche example comes from work done in 2014 by NVIDIA, a chip-making company whose devices power a lot of AI. It used its chips to analyse photos from the Apollo 11 Moon landing. By simulating the way light rays bounce around, NVIDIA showed that the odd-looking lighting of Buzz Aldrin’s space suit—taken by some nitwits as evidence of fakery—really is reflected lunar sunlight and not the lights of a Hollywood film rig.

artifice:技巧
verification:立証
recherche:非難して知識をひけらかすような凝った
bounce:反射する
nitwits:まぬけ
fakery:インチキ
rig:偽装

Amnesty International is already grappling with some of these issues. Its Citizen Evidence Lab verifies videos and images of alleged human-rights abuses. It uses Google Earth to examine background landscapes and to test whether a video or image was captured when and where it claims. It uses Wolfram Alpha, a search engine, to cross-reference historical weather conditions against those claimed in the video. Amnesty’s work mostly catches old videos that are being labelled as a new atrocity, but it will have to watch out for generated video, too. Cryptography could also help to verify that content has come from a trusted organisation. Media could be signed with a unique key that only the signing organisation—or the originating device—possesses. 

grappling:つかむ
atrocity:極悪
Cryptography:暗号解読法

Some have always understood the fragility of recorded media as evidence. “Despite the presumption of veracity that gives all photographs authority, interest, seductiveness, the work that photographers do is no generic exception to the usually shady commerce between art and truth,” Susan Sontag wrote in “On Photography”. Generated media go much further, however. They bypass the tedious business of pointing cameras and microphones at the real world altogether. 

presumption:仮定
veracity:真実
seductiveness:うっとりするようなこと
shady:いかがわしい
commerce:意見のやり取り
generic exception:一般的に除外しない 
tedious:退屈な

技術がどんどん進歩してきていて、偽物かどうかを判定するソフトも進んできている。いっぽうで、メディアも真偽がわかりように原画に印をつけている。tだ、こうした技術がどんどん進歩してしまうと、全くかそうなものでも現実的なものとして出来上がってしまうのもそう遠い話ではないようだ。

火曜日。今日はこれまで。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:17コメント(0) 

2017年07月16日

嘘のニュース:あなたの目にはまだ何も入ってこない。 嘘の出来事を音声やビデオでもっともらしく作る。

Fake news: you ain’t seen nothing yet
Generating convincing audio and video of fake events
Jul 1st 2017

嘘のニュース:あなたの目にはまだ何も入ってこない。
嘘の出来事を音声やビデオでもっともらしく作る。



EARLIER this year Francoise Hardy, a French musician, appeared in a YouTube video (see link). She is asked, by a presenter off-screen, why President Donald Trump sent his press secretary, Sean Spicer, to lie about the size of the inauguration crowd. First, Ms Hardy argues. Then she says Mr Spicer “gave alternative facts to that”. It’s all a little odd, not least because Francoise Hardy (pictured), who is now 73, looks only 20, and the voice coming out of her mouth belongs to Kellyanne Conway, an adviser to Mr Trump.

alternative facts:代わりの[代替的(な)]事実、オルタナティブ・ファクト、欺瞞  “うそ”の言い換え表現。2017年1月20日にドナルド・トランプ氏が第45代アメリカ大統領に就任した後の数週間にトランプ政権の上級顧問や報道官などによって多用された表現

The video, called “Alternative Face v1.1”, is the work of Mario Klingemann, a German artist. It plays audio from an NBC interview with Ms Conway through the mouth of Ms Hardy’s digital ghost. The video is wobbly and pixelated; a competent visual-effects shop could do much better. But Mr Klingemann did not fiddle with editing software to make it. Instead, he took only a few days to create the clip on a desktop computer using a generative adversarial network (GAN), a type of machine-learning algorithm. His computer spat it out automatically after being force fed old music videos of Ms Hardy. It is a recording of something that never happened. 

wobbly :不安定な
pixelated:モザイクを入れてぼかす
fiddle:勝手にいじる
spit it out:白状する
fed :与える

generative adversarial network:GANではgeneratorとdiscriminatorという2つのネットワークが登場します。Generatorは訓練データと同じようなデータを生成しようとします。一方、discriminatorはデータが訓練データから来たものか、それとも生成モデルから来たものかを識別します。 この関係は紙幣の偽造者と警察の関係によく例えられます。偽造者は本物の紙幣とできるだけ似ている偽造紙幣を造ります。警察は本物の紙幣と偽造紙幣を見分けようとします。 次第に警察の能力が上がり、本物の紙幣と偽造紙幣をうまく見分けられるようになったとします。すると偽造者は偽造紙幣を使えなくなってしまうため、更に本物に近い偽造紙幣を造るようになります。警察は本物と偽造紙幣を見分けられるようにさらに改善し…という風に繰り返していくと、最終的には偽造者は本物と区別が付かない偽造紙幣を製造できるようになるでしょう。 GANではこれと同じ仕組みで、generatorとdiscriminatorの学習が進んでいきます。最終的には、generatorは訓練データと同じようなデータを生成できるようになることが期待されます。このような状態では、訓練データと生成データを見分けることができなくなるため、discriminatorの正答率は50%になります。
Generative:生成力のある

Mr Klingemann’s experiment foreshadows a new battlefield between falsehood and veracity. Faith in written information is under attack in some quarters by the spread of what is loosely known as “fake news”. But images and sound recordings retain for many an inherent trustworthiness. GANs are part of a technological wave that threatens this credibility. 

foreshadows:予見する
falsehood:うそ
veracity:真実
inherent:本質的に
trustworthiness:信頼性

Audio is easier to fake. Normally, computers generate speech by linking lots of short recorded speech fragments to create a sentence. That is how the voice of Siri, Apple’s digital assistant, is generated. But digital voices like this are limited by the range of fragments they have memorised. They only sound truly realistic when speaking a specific batch of phrases. 

Generative audio works differently, using neural networks to learn the statistical properties of the audio source in question, then reproducing those properties directly in any context, modelling how speech changes not just second-by-second, but millisecond-by-millisecond. Putting words into the mouth of Mr Trump, say, or of any other public figure, is a matter of feeding recordings of his speeches into the algorithmic hopper and then telling the trained software what you want that person to say. Alphabet’s DeepMind in Britain, Baidu’s Institute of Deep Learning in Silicon Valley and the Montreal Institute for Learning Algorithms (MILA) have all published highly realistic text-to-speech algorithms along these lines in the past year. Currently, these algorithms require levels of computing power only available to large technology companies, but that will change. 

statistical:統計上の
properties:特性・属性
in question:話題にしている・疑わしい
algorithmic:アルゴリズムの
hopper:アイデアなどの検討の対象となって

Generating images is harder. GANs were introduced in 2014 by Ian Goodfellow, then a student at MILA under Yoshua Bengio, one of the founding fathers of the machine-learning technique known as deep learning. Mr Goodfellow observed that, although deep learning allowed machines to discriminate marvellously well between different sorts of data (a picture of a cat v one of a dog, say), software that tried to generate pictures of dogs or cats was nothing like as good. It was hard for a computer to work through a large number of training images in a database and then create a meaningful picture from them. 

discriminate :識別する
marvellously:驚くほどよく
nothing like as good:足元にも及ばない

トランプが嘘の情報を流すのが得意のようだが、こうした嘘の音声とか映像を作る技術が進歩してきている。現在はまだそうした技術を使って嘘のニュースを流してはいないが、今後見分けの付かない偽の音声とか映像が作り出されるようになる。メアリーアン・コンウェイの嘘のニュースは彼女がただ嘘をついただけなのだが、今後はまことしやかな嘘のニュースが流される危険がありそうだ。

月曜日。今日は海の日だ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:27コメント(0) 
livedoor プロフィール
プロフィール

海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
Swingby 最新イベント情報
海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
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