2018年の予測 (18)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (18)

2018年の予測 (18)

Top 5 Russian Trade Partners

Top 5 Russian Trade Partners
But the growing partnership between Russia and China can go only so far in the long run. Beijing and Moscow, after all, are natural rivals with overlapping spheres of influence. So though they will keep broadening the frontiers of their cooperation for now, their alliance will eventually have to contend with diverging views and competing priorities. In the meantime, the burgeoning partnership won't sit well with Japan. Tokyo will offer financial support for strategic projects such as liquefied natural gas facilities to curb Beijing's increasing influence in Russia. Moscow, in turn, will be only too happy to accept. 

burgeoning:〈人口・町などが〉急増する, 急成長の.

Infrastructure Between Russia and China

Infrastructure Between Russia and China
Beyond the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East will figure prominently in Russia's foreign policy next year. The balance of power is shifting in the region now that coalition forces have all but defeated the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Moscow intends to use the clout that its role in the Syrian civil war has earned it to try to influence other foreign powers with stakes in the region to shift the balance in its favor. 

figure:figure prominently in  の中で重要な役割を担う

Russia has four goals for this endeavor: to gain leverage in its negotiations with the West; to contain and counter the threat of Islamic extremism; to turn its relationships with regional powers to its favor; and to increase its access to energy, arms and agriculture markets in the area. With the entire region in play, Moscow will cultivate partnerships with several countries in the Middle East and North Africa in an effort to undermine the U.S. position there. Russia, for example, will work to restore its military presence in the region by leasing an air base in Egypt and by increasing arms sales to Libya. 

The tide is about to turn in his favor.:情勢は彼の有利に変わろうとしている

Iran will serve an essential role in Russia's activities in the Middle East over the next year. Since the U.S presidential administration decertified the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the deal halting Iran's nuclear weapons development — the agreement's future has come under greater doubt, and the threat of renewed economic sanctions has loomed larger over Tehran. Moscow will take advantage of the rising tensions between the United States and Iran to bolster its relationship with Tehran, building on the firm foundation it established through cooperation with Iran in Syria. Much as it does in its growing partnership with China, Russia sees in its ties with Iran an opportunity to counter the United States' strategic position. But their alliance, much like the one between Moscow and Beijing, also has clear limits, considering the conflicting interests of Russia and Iran in the Caucasus and in Central Asia. 

Russia will hit similar roadblocks as it works to strengthen its relationships with Turkey and with Saudi Arabia in 2018. As Moscow tries to pursue common interests with Ankara — and to use their deepening ties to widen Turkey's rifts with NATO and with the European Union — the two will butt heads. Turkey, for example, will object to Russia's outreach to the Kurds and to Moscow's overtures to Ankara's rivals in the region. The mounting hostility between the Saudi Arabia and Iran, likewise, will hamper Russia's budding alliance with the kingdom. 

butt heads with:〜とぶつかる[衝突する・角を突き合わせる]
overtures:予備交渉, 申し出, 提案(proposal)



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2018年の予測 (17)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (17)

2018年の予測 (17)

Eurasia is the world’s most expansive region. It connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. Forming the borders of this massive tract of land are the Northern European Plain, the Carpathian Mountains, the Southern Caucasus Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains and Siberia. At the heart of Eurasia is Russia, a country that throughout history has tried, to varying degrees of success, to extend its influence to Eurasia’s farthest reaches — a strategy meant to insulate it from outside powers. But this strategy necessarily creates conflict throughout Russia’s borderlands, putting Eurasia a near constant state of instability. 

tract:a tract of land 広い地域.
borderlands:国境地帯, 境界地域.

Section Highlights
As its standoff with the West intensifies in 2018, Russia will look to expand its influence in the Asia-Pacific region and in the Middle East.
The United States and Russia will spar over sanctions and arms control agreements as Moscow strives to undermine the unity of NATO and the European Union through hybrid warfare.
Presidential and regional elections in Russia will serve as a crucial test for the Kremlin, which will have to deal with converging crises at home.
Though negotiations over the Ukrainian conflict will pick up over the next year, they will fail to produce a resolution to the war in Donbas.
Economic and security challenges will test governments across Central Asia and encourage Russia and China to collaborate more closely in the region to stave off instability.

standoff:手詰まり, 膠着状態(deadlock) 
spar:意見を交わす, 口論する

Moscow Looks to the East 
As 2018 approaches, Russia — the linchpin of Eurasia — is undergoing a shift in its foreign policy. Years of deteriorating ties with the United States and Europe have led Moscow to recalibrate its priorities and strategy heading into the new year.

undergo rapid changes:急激な変化を遂げる.

As part of this adjustment, Russia will intensify its focus on the Asia-Pacific in 2018. As North Korea draws closer to demonstrating that it has achieved a credible nuclear deterrent, Russia will continue its behind-the-scenes support for the North Korean government by supplying fuel and maintaining trade ties with the isolated country. It won't have much of an opportunity to act as spoiler or peacemaker in the brewing conflict with Pyongyang, however, since the North Korean administration will forge ahead in its quest for a nuclear deterrent regardless of Moscow's economic and logistical backing. 


Furthermore, mounting concerns over the rogue administration across the border will compel Russia to temper its support for North Korea. Nevertheless, Russia will work to maintain its influence in the country, which it will try to use as leverage in talks with the United States, as well as with Japan and South Korea. It will also look for opportunities to exploit differences among the members of the U.S. trilateral alliance with Japan and South Korea. And all the while, Moscow will stay in lockstep with Beijing over the North Korean problem, advocating a containment policy and nonmilitary responses. 

compel:〈行為・物などが〉〈ある反応・変化・注目など〉を招く, 引き起こす
temper: …を加減[抑制]する; 〈感情など〉の強さを緩和する
exploit :につけこむ, …を不当に利用する
all the while:その間ずっと[いつも]
in lockstep:決められた通りに, 足並みをそろえて.

China, in fact, will play an important role in Russia's foreign and domestic strategies in 2018. As Russia's largest trading partner, China has helped ease the country's economic dependence on the West. Moscow hopes to continue that trend in the coming years by securing Chinese investment across the country in the energy, transportation and agricultural sectors. In addition, Beijing will facilitate Moscow's efforts to bolster its financial systems and cyber capabilities, and the two will strengthen their defense ties through military exercises and cooperation, as well. 

Their relationship also will extend to joint initiatives elsewhere. In Central Asia, for instance, Russia and China have established a kind of division of labor: China concentrates on economic issues in the region, while Russia focuses on security matters. Redoubling their collaboration will enable both countries to insulate themselves from U.S. pressure and to challenge Washington's strategic position in various theaters around the world. 

division of labor:分業
Redoubling:努力・熱意を強くする, 倍増する



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2018年の予測 (16)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (16)

2018年の予測 (16)

North African Nationalism
The Egyptian government will be keeping a close eye on popular opinion next year as well. The country will hold a presidential election in May. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will carefully manage the vote, leaving Egyptians with little choice in their actual selections. But more important will be the headcount at campaign events, social media activity and voter turnout — all of which will reveal some details about voters' opinions of Egypt's economic and security strategies. Any popular frustration with the government in Cairo will be channeled through opposition candidates, such as lawyer Khaled Ali. Subsidy cuts approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and scheduled for 2018 will deal a heavy blow to Egypt's lower- and middle-class citizens, but Cairo will try to mitigate the political fallout at home by handing out cash.

Buoyed by IMF loans, Egypt will exercise greater independence in its relationships abroad. (The more financially solvent the country is, the less reliance it has on foreign backers.) To that end, Cairo will balance its ties with the United States and Russia while holding Saudi Arabia at arm's length. Though Egypt is no friend to Iran, it isn't fond of kowtowing to Saudi Arabia's demands, either. Cairo will likewise find itself distanced from Ankara next year as Turkey lends support to the Palestinian cause — chipping away at Egypt's own credentials as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Egypt will try to account for Turkey's actions, and to better manage its problems with Sinai militancy, by courting deeper ties with Hamas, the Palestinian group tasked with managing the Gaza Strip. Cairo will also assist in Washington's efforts to negotiate a new peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians. 

Buoyed:を励ます, 元気づける(up).
at arm's length:一定の距離をおいて, 近づけないで
chipping away:〈考え・感情・制度など〉を少しずつ弱める, なし崩しにする
credentials:人物[能力, 信用]の証明となるもの, 実績, 資格
account:Depression accounts for the current high unemployment. 現在の失業率の高さは不況によるものである
courting:They have successfully courted support in America. 彼らはアメリカの支持をうまく取り付けた.

Next door, momentum will build behind an effort to hold elections in Libya. But although the latest U.N.-backed initiative is gaining support, the many factions taking part in peace talks are unlikely to hash out their differences next year. Nevertheless, a shared form of nationalism has arisen among the most powerful groups in Libya's east and west — including Libyan National Army Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter, who is gradually garnering the approval of the international community. A national conference in Tunis intended to catalyze the electoral process will showcase the common ground emerging in Libya in 2018. Even so, few parties will be convinced that the U.N. talks will meet their demands, ensuring that the strongest among them, such as Hifter, will continue to act in their own interest as negotiations unfold. 

hash out :〔合意を得るために〕詳細に議論する
garnering:〈情報・支持など〉を集める; 〈称賛など〉を得る.
unfold:〈折りたたんだ物〉を広げる, 開く

The Jihadist Wars 
The Islamic State may have suffered a sound defeat in Iraq and Syria, but the war against the world's extremist groups is far from over. Al Qaeda will attempt to exploit the collapse of the Islamic State's so-called caliphate to polish its own reputation as the leader of the global jihadist movement and to propagate its vision of "the long struggle." The group's recruitment efforts will aim to attract current and potential Islamic State followers in 2018. 

sound:〈言動・考え・根拠などが〉(合理的で)確かな, 適切な, 正しい, 正当性のある, 信頼できる
propagate :〈動植物など〉を繁殖[増殖]させる

Both al Qaeda and the Islamic State will seek out weak states where they can establish new strongholds or expand old positions, focusing on Yemen, Libya and the Sinai Peninsula. The ungoverned spaces of the Sahel, Afghanistan and Somalia may prove tempting for them as well. Meanwhile, al Qaeda will dig into its bases in conflicts throughout the Middle East — including Syria, where a schism between al Qaeda and an offshoot, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has jeopardized the organization's cohesion. As the battle for the hearts and minds of potential recruits around the world persists, so will the threat of homegrown militants inspired by the competing extremist ideologies urging them to carry out attacks. 

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham:an active Salafist jihadist militant group involved in the Syrian Civil War.The group was formed on 28 January 2017 as a merger between Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra Front), the Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement.



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swingby_blog at 20:22コメント(0) 


2018年の予測 (15)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (15)

2018年の予測 (15)

The Saudi Survival Strategy 
As Saudi Arabia grapples with its rivals abroad, it will also have to wrestle with tricky reforms at home. Though all GCC states will have to undertake tough reforms in the year ahead, Saudi Arabia's are the biggest and most ambitious. At the heart of the domestic policy changes underway will be Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who will wield his newfound power to advance his sweeping agenda. The young leader will try to make good on his promises of aggressive economic reform, aiming to boost non-oil revenue through taxes and investment profits, stimulate private-sector growth and nationalize the kingdom's labor force. 

grapples:【問題などに】取り組む ≪with≫ .
wrestle:【問題などに[と]】(真剣に)取り組む, 格闘する ≪with≫
underway :〈事が〉進行中で, 始まって
nationalize:を全国に拡大[展開]する, 国家[国民]的なものにする.

Mohammed bin Salman's Powers

Mohammed bin Salman's Powers

Saudi Arabia cannot afford to put off these tough economic reforms any longer, and its citizens will soon see tangible signs of painful, if necessary, change. To balance its budget, Riyadh will have little choice but to enact new taxes and proceed with the planned partial initial public offering of the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., which will provide much-needed capital for the kingdom's future investments. (The IPO is currently set for 2018, but it may be pushed back.) As prices on everyday goods like fuel rise, popular dissatisfaction could rise with them. The government will be responsive to its people's demands, revising some targets if they are deemed too aggressive. Thanks in part to such attentiveness and flexibility, as well as a willingness to boost its capital investment next year, the kingdom will reach several of its goals — including an uptick in non-oil revenue. 

put off:事を延期する, 先延ばしにする
if necessary:必要ならば
pushed back:延期する、先送りする
attentiveness:注意深い, 熱心に注意を向ける, 慎重な

Some of Saudi Arabia's economic objectives require bold changes in social behavior that will take time to encourage. Eventually, Salman intends to design a new social contract that adjusts what citizens expect of their government, and vice versa. In the meantime, however, the kingdom will take notable strides toward that contract. Riyadh will likely grant women the right to drive in June 2018, and new entertainment opportunities will crop up throughout the year. The crown prince will preface each step with tentative announcements of the measures ahead to gauge the public's reaction and to fulfill his pledge of maintaining transparency. Though the country's conservative clerics will try to stand in the way of reform by appealing to an older demographic that is wary of the prince's aggressive reforms, young Saudis will increasingly embrace Salman's vision for the kingdom's future. 

encourage:を励ます, 勇気づける
strides:進歩, 発展
crop up:表面に現れる, 露出する
pledge:誓約, 固い[重要な]約束(promise); 公約 
wary:用心深い, 慎重な(careful)

The Importance of Saudi Reform

The Importance of Saudi Reform



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2018年の予測 (14)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (14)
2018年の予測 (14)

Jockeying for Political Influence
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will stir up trouble for Iran on political battlegrounds as it works to undermine Iranian-backed parties and politicians in Iraq and Lebanon. Iraq will hold general elections in May, offering the country a rare moment to assert its independence from the foreign powers involved within its borders. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi will champion an emerging strain of nationalism that advocates the resistance of external influence (including from the United States, Iran and Turkey), while Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr will embrace the same rhetoric in hopes of channeling it into electoral gains. 

Jockeying:【地位などをめぐる】駆け引き, 画策
stir up:問題を引き起こす 
champion:〈弱者・主義など〉を擁護する, …のために闘う(fight for)
Muqtada al-Sadr:ムクタダー・アッ=サドルは、イラクのシーア派のウラマーで、フッジャトル・イスラーム。シーア派の反米強硬派民兵組織マフディー軍及び政治組織「サドル潮流」の指導者。 ウィキペディア

After the elections have wrapped up, Iran will use its connections to Iraq's Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces — some of those militias have created political wings that will participate in the race — to shape coalition building in Baghdad. To balance against these groups, the GCC will funnel money and aid to other Sunni and Shiite parties in Iraq. Given the entrenchment of the Shiite Iraqi politicians aligned with Iran, however, the Gulf bloc will have difficulty weakening Tehran's influence. 

Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces (PMU):The PMU became regarded as an official force with similar rights as those of the regular army. On December 11th, 2017, the PMU began to be entirely consolidated under the Iraqi Armed Forces, following a call by the Iraqi top Shia cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani to integrate.
entrenchment:(考え・態度の)固定化, 確立; 身を守る事

To the north, in Iraqi Kurdistan, a failed attempt to declare independence toward the end of 2017 made the split between Arbil province (led by the Kurdistan Democratic Party) and Sulaimaniyah province (led by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) even more pronounced. Turkey and Iran will settle back into their long-standing roles as the parties' respective economic and political patrons in the year ahead. As the autonomous region's negotiations with the central government progress, Baghdad will use its relationship with Tehran to try to drive the wedge between the Kurdish parties deeper — exacerbating Iran's competition with Turkey in the country in the process. The widening rift among Iraq's Kurds will be clear in the results of the region's general elections in 2018, hindering Arbil's ability to barter with Baghdad over oil revenue and disputed territory. 

settle back into clear sky:晴天に戻る
drive a wedge into the organization:組織に亀裂を生じさせる
barter:物々交換する, 交易する ≪with/for≫

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will try to use Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri to influence politics in Beirut in order to undermine Hezbollah's interests. But the militant group is deeply entrenched in Lebanon, and despite the small diplomatic gains that Saudi Arabia will eke out among the country's Sunni and Christian communities next year, Riyadh will not be able to mount an effective assault on the insurgency's standing in the country. Turkey will encounter similar barriers as it leans on its links to Sunni leaders in Lebanon to try to counter Iran's militant partner. 

eke out:金・食料・燃料などをなんとか持たせる; 〈生計など〉を立てる; 〈不足など〉を補う.

Even so, Turkey will seek out other means of making its own mark on the Middle East. Qatar will be an unlikely ally in this regard: Both countries desire regional prestige and independence from their powerful neighbors, Iran and Saudi Arabia. In the coming year, Turkey will shore up its support for Qatar by deploying troops and military equipment to its territory and ramping up trade. Turkey's growing presence on the Arabian Peninsula will antagonize Saudi Arabia while underscoring the divides permeating the GCC. At the same time, the emerging partnership between Turkey and Qatar will frustrate the Saudi kingdom's attempts to solidify its position as the dominant Sunni power in the Middle East. 

make one's mark in the world:天下に名を成す、世界的に有名になる
antagonize:を敵に回す, …に反感[敵意]を抱かせる.
underscoring:を強調する, 明白にする(⦅主に英⦆underline).
permeating:〈思想・感情などが〉…に行き渡る, 広がる, 充満する; 普及する.



swingby_blog at 22:27コメント(0) 


2018年の予測 (13)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (13)

2018年の予測 (13)

The Syrian Civil War 
As Russia and Iran have gained ground in Syria, Saudi Arabia and the United States have lost it. But though their influence over the country's divided rebel groups has slipped, Washington and Riyadh will look for ways to take advantage of the grueling civil war to undermine Tehran. 

slipped:He must be slipping! 彼も体力が落ちてきたね
grueling:have a grueling time さんざんな目に遭う.

The Syrian Civil War

The Syrian Civil War
Six years of conflict in Syria, coupled with the fight against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, have given rise to a slew of Iranian-backed militias scattered across the Levant. Iran is keen to use these groups to clear a land bridge linking it to the Mediterranean Sea for the first time since the Sassanid Empire ruled Persia in the seventh century. But the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel are determined to quash Tehran's local allies. Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group that is one of Iran's most powerful non-state partners, will risk becoming a prime target of this crackdown. 

coupled:rain coupled with a strong wind 強い風を伴った雨
slew:a slew of books たくさんの本.
Sassanid Empire:《the 〜》ササン朝帝国[ペルシャ]
quash :〈反乱・抵抗〉を制圧する
risk being killed:命を失う危険がある.

Though it would be too difficult to isolate and squeeze the group in its homeland, Hezbollah is more exposed to military action against it in Syria, where it fights alongside the forces of President Bashar al Assad. As long as the war rages on and Hezbollah remains overextended, Israel will have a window in which to strike the group, enjoying the support of the United States and Saudi Arabia as it does. 

squeeze:(挟んで)…を圧搾する, 強く押す, 締めつける
rages:The battle raged on between the two countries. 両国間の激戦は続いた.

For the most part, the parties involved in the Syrian civil war have largely achieved their goal of beating back the Islamic State, which lost vast stretches of territory in Syria and Iraq throughout 2017. With their common enemy vanquished, the parties will have to confront the far more complicated and delicate issues the conflict has raised. Though a cease-fire is still unlikely next year, future rounds of peace talks eventually could yield a power-sharing arrangement that reserves a place for al Assad's inner circle and kick-starts the process of drafting a constitution. Yet any deal that Damascus approves would be mostly cosmetic, and any deal that affirms al Assad's authority would be rejected by the rebels. 

vanquished:(議論などで)〈相手〉を打ち負かす (→ defeat)
inner circle:《an 〜》〔共通の目的を持つ〕排他的小集団、取り巻きグループ、側近、内集団、派閥
cosmetic:⦅けなして⦆うわべだけの, 欠点を隠すための〈方法・手段・変更など〉.
affirms:〈意見・考えなど〉の支持を表明する; …を擁護する

Regardless, Russia is intent on finding a quick exit from the conflict that protects the gains it has made over the past two years. To do so, it will have to rein in the Iranian and Syrian governments, which are more interested in securing a total military victory than in reaching a negotiated resolution. Russia will also have to maintain an open and functional dialogue with Turkey, which has its own ambitions in Syria to attend to. Ankara's primary goal is to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish statelet along its southern border by keeping the region's Kurdish forces divided. Consequently, Russia's negotiations with Turkey in the year ahead will center on the fate of Syria's Kurds, who have demanded their own autonomous region.


Despite the challenges facing it, Russia will play a prominent military and diplomatic role in Syria in 2018. However, its ability to meddle in Middle Eastern affairs at the United States' expense won't be confined there. Rather, Russia will extend its reach to other corners of the region by strengthening its economic and political ties to the Arab Gulf states, Egypt, Iraq, Libya and Turkey. 

confined :〈人・活動など〉を限定する, 制限する

Jostling for the Battlefield Advantage
The tides of the Syrian civil war may have turned in Iran's favor, but Saudi Arabia could have better luck on other battlefields — both physical and political — throughout the region. Hoping to capitalize on renewed U.S. hostility toward Iran, the kingdom will try to counter the growing influence of its long-standing rival among its weaker neighbors, such as Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon. 

Jostling:jostle one's way 押し分けて進む.

Complicating Saudi Arabia's efforts, however, will be Riyadh's lackluster attempt to rally its like-minded Sunni allies against the Shiite Iran. On paper, the kingdom's partners are far more powerful than Iran's weak proxies. But in practice they are also less reliable. Saudi Arabia will struggle to amass the support it needs to lead any concrete action against Iran. Because of this failure, at least in part, the kingdom will have trouble eroding Iran's military presence in Syria and Iraq, where Saudi Arabia lacks the asymmetric capabilities in which the Islamic Republic and its allies excel. 

lackluster:〈演技・質などが〉パッとしない, 活気がない, さえない, 輝きがない.
asymmetric capabilities:不釣合いの可能性 Asymmetric warfare (or asymmetric engagement) is war between belligerents whose relative military power differs significantly, or whose strategy or tactics differ significantly. This is typically a war between a standing, professional army and an insurgency or resistance movement.

The Balance of Power in the Middle East

The Balance of Power in the Middle East

Yemen is one place where Saudi Arabia will be more likely to succeed. The country's civil war took a surprising turn at the end of 2017 when Houthi rebels killed their erstwhile ally, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. His death drove many of his followers to defect from the Houthi alliance, perhaps shifting the battle's momentum in favor of the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coalition if they take up arms against the Houthis. Either way, the Houthis will be more desperate than ever to secure aid from Iran in the short term — and the GCC will be more determined than ever to stop them from receiving it. 

erstwhile:かつての, 以前の(former).
defect:(国・政党などを捨て) ≪…から/…へ≫ 離脱[離反]する, 寝返る
I'm now determined to perform my duty.:私は義務を果たそうと決心している


Yemen will thus become the center of a violent war by proxy between the GCC and Iran as the coalition intensifies its effort to loosen the Houthis' grip on the capital, Sanaa. Now that rifts have opened within the rebel alliance, a political settlement to the conflict will be even more elusive — especially as other Yemeni interests, including southern secessionists, seize the chance to press their own political claims. 

elusive:〈結果などが〉手に入れにくい, 達成しがたい.
secessionists:脱退[離脱, 分離]論者.

Houthi Missile Ranges

Houthi Missile Ranges



swingby_blog at 19:49コメント(0) 



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