2017年07月15日

ドナルド・トランプの政府は麻痺している。 そして大統領執務室の男は更に状況を悪くしている。

Donald Trump’s Washington is paralysed
And the man in the Oval Office is making a bad situation worse
Jul 1st 2017

ドナルド・トランプの政府は麻痺している。
そして大統領執務室の男は更に状況を悪くしている。

JULY 4th ought to bring Americans together. It is a day to celebrate how 13 young colonies united against British rule to begin their great experiment in popular government. But this July 4th Americans are riven by mutual incomprehension: between Republicans and Democrats, yes, but also between factory workers and university students, country folk and city-dwellers. And then there is President Donald Trump, not only a symptom of America’s divisions but a cause of them, too. 

riven:分裂して
symptom:良くない兆候

Mr Trump won power partly because he spoke for voters who feel that the system is working against them, as our special report this week sets out. He promised that, by dredging Washington of the elites and lobbyists too stupid or self-serving to act for the whole nation, he would fix America’s politics. 

dredging:浚渫する

His approach is not working. Five months into his first term, Mr Trump presides over a political culture that is even more poisonous than when he took office. His core voters are remarkably loyal. Many businesspeople still believe that he will bring tax cuts and deregulation. But their optimism stands on ever-shakier ground. The Trump presidency has been plagued by poor judgment and missed opportunities. The federal government is already showing the strain. Sooner or later, the harm will spread beyond the beltway and into the economy. 

shakier:よろめく
plagued:苦しむ
missed:狙ったものを打ち損なう
strain:過労・ストレス
beltway :ワシントン政界

From sea to shining sea
America’s loss of faith in politics did not start with Mr Trump. For decades, voters have complained about the gridlock in Washington and the growing influence of lobbyists, often those with the deepest pockets. Francis Fukuyama, a political theorist, blamed the decay on the “vetocracy”, a tangle of competing interests and responsibilities that can block almost any ambitious reform. When the world changes and the federal government cannot rise to the challenge, he argued, voters’ disillusion only grows. 

From sea to shining sea:Richie Cole (リッチー ・ コール)アルバム: Signature (署名) に中の歌詞
loss of faith:信頼の喪失
gridlock:行き詰まり
deepest pockets:財力
decay:腐敗
tangle:もつれ・からまり
competing :相容れない
vetocracy:拒否権民主主義 権力が分散して、政府が重要な決定をできない状態

Mr Trump has also fuelled the mistrust. He has correctly identified areas where America needs reform, but botched his response—partly because of his own incontinent ego. Take tax. No one doubts that America’s tax code is a mess, stuffed full of loopholes and complexity. But Mr Trump’s reform plans show every sign of turning into a cut for the rich that leaves the code as baffling as ever. So, too, health care. Instead of reforming Obamacare, Republicans are in knots over a bill that would leave millions of Mr Trump’s own voters sicker and poorer. 

botched:やりそこなう
incontinent:自制心のない
stuffed:詰まって
 baffling:邪魔をする
knots:厄介な問題

Institutions are vulnerable. The White House is right to complain about America’s overlapping and competing agencies, which spun too much red tape under President Barack Obama. Yet its attempt to reform this “administrative state” is wrecking the machinery the government needs to function. Mr Trump’s hostility has already undermined the courts, the intelligence services, the state department and America’s environmental watchdog. He wants deep budget cuts and has failed to fill presidential appointments. Of 562 key positions identified by the Washington Post, 390 remain without a nominee.

spun:紡ぐ
wrecking:台無しにする
machinery:体制

As harmful as what Mr Trump does is the way he does it. In the campaign he vowed to fight special interests. But his solution—to employ businesspeople too rich for lobbyists to buy—is no solution at all. Just look at Mr Trump himself: despite his half-hearted attempts to disentangle the presidency and the family business, nobody knows where one ends and the other begins. He promised to be a dealmaker, but his impulse to belittle his opponents and the miasma of scandal and leaks surrounding Russia’s role in the campaign have made the chances of cross-party co-operation even more remote. 

half-hearte:気乗りしない
disentangle:困難な状況から開放する
impulse:推進力
belittle:軽んじる
miasma:悪影響

The lack of respect for expertise, such as the attacks on the Congressional Budget Office over its dismal scoring of health-care reform, only makes Washington more partisan. Most important, Mr Trump’s disregard for the truth cuts into what remains of the basis for cross-party agreement. If you cannot agree on the facts, all you have left is a benighted clash of rival tribes. 

dismal :お粗末な
scoring:評価を与える
partisa:盲従した
benighted:無知な・理解力のない・暗愚な
clash:対立

Til selfish gain no longer stain
Optimists say that America, with its immense diversity, wealth and reserves of human ingenuity and resilience can take all this in its stride. Mr Trump is hardly its first bad president. He may be around for only four years—if that. In a federal system, the states and big cities can be islands of competence amid the dysfunction. America’s economy is seemingly in rude health, with stockmarkets near their all-time highs. The country dominates global tech and finance, and its oil and gas producers have more clout than at any time since the 1970s. 

Til:till
stain:汚点
Til selfish gain no longer stain:Richie Cole (リッチー ・ コール)アルバム: Signature (署名) に中の歌詞 The banner of the free!  自由の旗印 へと続く。この言葉の前はGod shed his grace on thee(神の恩恵を与える) 
selfish gain:自分のことしか考えない利益
strain:精一杯努力する
immense:とてつもない
ingenuity:創意
resilience:回復力
stride:難なくやってのける
competence:法的権限
dysfunction:機能障害
rude health:とても健康であること
clout:勢力

Those are huge strengths. But they only mitigate the damage being done in Washington. Health-care reform affects a sixth of the economy. Suspicion and mistrust corrode all they touch. If the ablest Americans shun a career in public service, the bureaucracy will bear the scars. Besides, a bad president also imposes opportunity costs. The rising monopoly power of companies has gone unchallenged. Schools and training fall short even as automation and artificial intelligence are about to transform the nature of work. If Mr Trump serves a full eight years—which, despite attacks from his critics, is possible—the price of paralysis and incompetence could be huge. 

ablest :最も有能な
shun:近寄らない
bear the scars:その問題を我慢する
opportunity cost:機会費用
unchallenged:問題にされない・反対されない
fall short:基準に及ばない
paralysis:機能停止状態・麻痺
incompetence:無能力

The dangers are already clear in foreign policy. By pandering to the belief that Washington elites sell America short, Mr Trump is doing enduring harm to American leadership. The Trans-Pacific Partnership would have entrenched America’s concept of free markets in Asia and shored up its military alliances. He walked away from it. His rejection of the Paris climate accord showed that he sees the world not as a forum where countries work together to solve problems, but as an arena where they compete for advantage. His erratic decision-making and his chumminess with autocrats lead his allies to wonder if they can depend on him in a crisis. 

pandering:迎合する
sell America short:低く評価する
enduring:長期間続く
entrenched:確立する
shored:支える
compete:争う
erratic:気まぐれな
chumminess:打ち解けること
autocrats:独裁者

July 4th is a time to remember that America has renewed itself in the past; think of Theodore Roosevelt’s creation of a modern, professional state, FDR’s New Deal, and the Reagan revolution. In principle it is not too late for Mr Trump to embrace bipartisanship and address the real issues. In practice, it is ever clearer that he is incapable of bringing about such a renaissance. That will fall to his successor.

FDR:Franklin Delanoroosevelt

トランプのことを無茶苦茶言っている。彼は独裁者で気まぐれで、なびいてくるやつには親しく付き合う。世界において協力して平和にやっていこうという気は毛頭なく、自国を守るための戦いの場だと思っている。8年もやったら、国はめちゃくちゃになってしまう。今までの先代の大統領が築いてきたアメリカは台無しだ。この失った時は次の大統領に期待するしかない。

日曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:25コメント(0) 

世界主義者、民族主義者、愛国主義者(3)

A Nuanced Debate
There are of course deep nuances when it comes to the globalist vs. nationalist debate. The developing world has largely benefited from decades of hyper-connected global trade, with nations gaining wealth by inserting themselves along nodes of a supply chain and ingesting ideas and technology along the way, gradually moving up the value chain. A country's need for open and growing markets, as well as the social risk they face from unrelenting and environmentally stressful industrial growth, has led some to lump leaders such as Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi with Merkel and Macron in a group of globalists defending free trade and investing in green technologies. But Xi and Modi are not cut from the same cloth of their Western counterparts. Rather than preaching universal Enlightenment values, they are using the global stage to pursue their fiercely nationalist agendas at home. 

Nuanced:微妙な違いのある
hyper:極度の
inserting oneself:の中に身を置く・関わる
nodes:結び目
ingesting:摂取する
unrelenting:弱まらない
lump :たくさんの
cut from the same cloth:同類
preaching:主張する
Enlightenment:啓蒙主義運動

Modi's Make in India has the same ring as Trump's America First agenda in trying to drive manufacturing growth at home. Just as populism is fanned in the American rust belt toward a political end, Hindu nationalism is being used in India to centralize Modi's power in a highly decentralized state. There is much talk of China displacing America as the new global governor, but China's heft on the global stage is still directly tied to its national imperatives. China is not offering or defending a political or economic template for the world to emulate; it is extending its global presence through major initiatives such as Belt and Road to create redundancy in its own supply lines. This mitigates the risk of interdiction from more powerful adversaries such as the United States and further spreads the usage of the yuan. It is doing this all while trying to retain absolute control under a communist umbrella and function as a market economy.

heft:持ち上げること 
emulate:張り合う
redundancy:余剰
mitigates:緩和する
interdiction:阻止

Incongruous Thinking 
Even within the Western camp of globalists there exist major contradictions. The new darling leader of the Europeanists, Macron, is using his honeymoon period to try and sell his European counterparts on the idea of opening a European protectionist umbrella over the Continent to shield the union from Chinese encroachment and American unpredictability. But the Germans, the Dutch and others know that "Buy European" can just as easily morph into "Buy French" under an untested French president who is bracing himself for union strikes and street protests. So the Europeans do what they do best at every summit: promise to discuss the matter at a later date while carrying on as though the Franco-German alignment is stronger than ever. 

Incongruous:違和感のある
darling:人気者の
shield:保護する
encroachment:侵害
unpredictability:予測できないこと
morph:変形する

In fact, another wave of wishful thinking is pervading much of Europe. The murky future of the UK under Brexit, the polarizing Trump effect on the Continent, Macron's new mandate and Merkel's likely incumbency are feeding a narrative that the head of the nationalist monster has been cut off and the globalists have prevailed. Europe has bought itself valuable time, but is still prey to the deeper rebalancing taking place in the form of this globalist vs. nationalist battle. 

pervading:浸透する
murky:不明瞭な
polarizing:対立する
incumbency:在職
feeding:を提供する
cut off:関係を断つ 
prevailed:首尾よく行く
prey:犠牲

Even as nationalism may appear treacherous to many globalists, there is something very natural about individuals wanting to look after their own before focusing on others. The human condition is born of tribalistic tendencies. Even the mildest of nationalists will still cringe when they hear Obama speaking alongside Merkel at the Brandenburg gate arguing that "a child on the other side of the border is no less worthy of love and compassion than my own child." In times of prolonged global stress, a love of one's own tends to trump the love of the other. 

treacherous:あてにならない
tribal:同族の
cringe:後ずさりする
trump:に勝る

If today's debate over migrant flows is intense, imagine tomorrow's when robots detached from the human condition must make moral decisions. As New York University professor Regina Rini posits in a thought-provoking article entitled Raising Good Robots, imagine an autonomous car driving your two children to school and three other children suddenly appear on a street where the road is too slick to stop in time. The robocar, removed from biological considerations, makes the decision to swerve and run into a flooded ditch, calculating that it is best to avoid killing three children but puts the two in the car at risk of drowning. How then should society prepare for a time when intelligent machines are expected to make human choices? The globalist will tell you that this ethical dilemma is not reason alone to shun technological progress. The nationalist will tell you that the question itself is a waste of time and that we have to focus on the problems of the present day. 

detached from the human condition:人間の条件から切り離された
posits:だと仮定する
provoking:誘発する
slick:つるつるすべる
swerve:急ハンドルを切る
shun:避ける

The globalist vs. nationalist debate is not a temporary phenomenon and neither side is in a position to declare victory over the other. So long as both sides regard the other as existing in opposing camps locked in a zero-sum game, the disappointments in our political institutions will mount and global angst will persist.
The reality is that there are global responsibilities as much as there are national ones and the two worlds are deeply intertwined. A globalist would be unwise to ignore the nationalist instincts of his own citizenry. A nationalist would be unwise to ignore the global dimensions to problems that impact the citizenry he claims to defend. 

mount:徐々に高まる
angst:苦悩
instincts:本能・衝動

Whether we dwell on the past, entrench ourselves in the present or fixate on the future, the social contract that exists between the state and its citizenry is a constant. Problems will merge across borders and power balances will shift among governments, corporations and individuals. But perhaps those who recognize the pitfalls of the globalist vs. nationalist divide may emerge as the strongest patriots in the end.

dwell:についてあれこれ考える
entrench:身の安全が守られる
fixate:執着している
patriots:愛国者

Reva Goujon is a leading global strategic analyst who keeps her finger on the pulse of emerging trends across the world. Ms. Goujon leads Stratfor's team of analysts and plays an integral role in applying a forward-looking, strategic lens to Stratfor's coverage of global events. She is also a prominent speaker, regularly addressing executives and investors at events across the world in a variety of industries, including energy, finance, commercial real estate and agriculture. 

世界主義者が世界の政治指導者の大勢だが、中国、インド、アメリカは民族主義者だ。こうした双方の対立をどう調整していくのかは容易ではない。中国とインドは世界との関わりを協調してはいるが、目線は海外に向いているが、心は国内に向いている。トランプのアメリカは目線も心も国内にしか目が向いていない。こうした国々との調和を世界がどのように求めていくのかは容易なことではないし、特にアメリカの場合においては協調する一致点が見つかっていない。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 07:45コメント(0) 

2017年07月14日

アメリカのグローバルな地位はドナルド・トランプによって落ち込んでいる。 ピュー・リサーチ・センターの新たな調査では支持が急速に落ち込んでいることを示している。

America’s global standing plummets under Donald Trump
A new survey from Pew Research Centre shows sharp drops in approval
Jun 27th 2017by THE DATA TEAM

アメリカのグローバルな地位はドナルド・トランプによって落ち込んでいる。
ピュー・リサーチ・センターの新たな調査では支持が急速に落ち込んでいることを示している。




これは酷い。世界を敵に回しているね。

IT IS no surprise that a fast-tweeting, pugnacious president, with little regard for diplomatic niceties or enthusiasm for treaty obligations, is not much liked outside his borders. Nonetheless, the magnitude of the change in global opinions on America’s leadership since Donald Trump took office is still remarkable. 

pugnacious:好戦的な
niceties:上品さ
remarkable:注目すべき

A new survey by the Pew Research Centre of 40,447 people in 37 countries shows that trust in Mr Trump pales in comparison with Barack Obama’s final ratings. Whereas 64% of those surveyed had confidence in Mr Obama to do the right thing, just 22% are similarly optimistic about his successor, whom they described as “arrogant” (75%), “intolerant” (65%) and “dangerous” (62%). Citizens in Western Europe put no more stock in Mr Trump—who took office just five months ago—than they did in George W. Bush, the architect of the highly unpopular war in Iraq, when he limped out of the White House in 2008. Respondents’ approval rating for America overall has also slumped, from 64% to 49%. 

pales:見劣りする
intolerant:不寛容
architect:主導者
limped:片足を引きずって歩く



Of all the countries surveyed by Pew, Mr Trump’s worst ratings come from Mexico, America’s southern neighbour. The president has characterised its immigrants to his country as rapists, and promised to force its government to pay for a wall on their shared border. Sure enough, just 5% of Mexicans say they are confident in him. 

confident:確信している

At the other extreme, respondents in only two countries prefer Mr Trump to his predecessor. Israelis are fonder of him by seven percentage points, perhaps because he has sounded, at times, friendlier toward settlements and harsher towards Iran. A far greater gain comes from Russia, where only 11% liked Mr Obama, but 53% say that they like Mr Trump. The FBI is currently investigating whether anyone involved in Mr Trump’s presidential campaign colluded with Russian efforts to influence the 2016 election on his behalf. 

colluded:共謀する

Even in countries where he is mostly despised, Mr Trump still found some support from those who share his ideology. Across Europe, people with favourable views of their hometown populist party have much higher appraisals for Mr Trump—though, even among them, confidence was not above 50%. Of those who approve of the National Front, 39% express confidence in Mr Trump; for those who disapprove of Marine Le Pen’s party, that number is just 6%. 

despised:をひどく嫌う

America’s president is often described as the “leader of the free world”. Mr Trump may be making that moniker an anachronism. Given his reluctance to reiterate America’s commitment to NATO’s collective-defence policy, it is little wonder that Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor and a staunch defender of liberal internationalism, inspires more confidence than Mr Trump does. However, he also fell short of leaders with far weaker democratic credentials. Even autocrats like Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin scored better. 

moniker:あだ名
anachronism:時代錯誤
reiterate:何度も言う
it is little wonder that:ふしぎではない
staunch:熱烈な

トランプの外交政策について、ボロクソに言っている。その通りで、彼に見方す他国はいない。まるで、独裁者だ。このまま行けばアメリカは凋落する。田舎の不動産屋が大統領になったという感じで、「俺の言うことを聞かないやつは敵だ。」みたいな事を言っている。たしかに、インフラに投資をすれば、アメリカの単純労働者は3年ぐらいは食えるだろう。そんなことをしているうちに、アメリカは凋落し、中国の天下になっていく。

水曜日。インタートレードの内藤さんと会食。夜は海野塾。ではまた明日。




swingby_blog at 04:23コメント(0) 

2017年07月13日

世界主義者、民族主義者、愛国主義者(2)

An American farmer who has seen their livelihood go up in dust after years of drought does not want a lecture on climate change; they want a politician who will tell them that immediate relief has arrived and that the scientists other politicians are listening to are full of bunk. A prideful Frenchman would rather fixate on a message of preserving a modern French way of life imbedded in the country's revolutionary fabric than tolerate alien customs and job-seeking migrants coming across the Mediterranean from the war-torn Islamic world. 

livelihood:生活費
bunk:bunkum  政治家の人気取り演説 たわごと
fixate:執着している 
fabric :社会の基本構造

Even as nationalists make big — and often unrealistic — promises to their voters on short-term fixes to their long-term problems, setting the stage for further disappointment down the road, they are still able to feed off long-building disillusionment and distrust in political institutions to gain a voice and platform among the masses. Critically, certain powerful members of the elite are able to internalize that deep and confining sense of disillusionment. They are the ones who are ready to put their money and message behind those who they think can effect change. Take for example Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah Mercer — the wealthy backers behind White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon — who have collectively played a strong ideological role in shaping the Trump agenda. Writers Neil Howe and William Strauss, authors of the The Fourth Turning, have deeply influenced this group with their generational argument that prophesies the rebirth of an American identity.

Even as:ちょうど〜のように
feed off:増長される
masses:一般大衆
internalize:身につける
confining :閉じ込める
collectively:共同で
prophesies :予言する

They believe that the only way to save the republic from its current unraveling, and from its ossified public institutions, is to allow for the creative destruction of the state itself and rebuild from the ashes toward a more enlightened capitalist state based on Judeo-Christian values. 

unraveling:失敗する・崩壊し始める
ossified:融通がきかなくなる
Judeo-Christian:ユダヤ教とキリスト教に共通の

This mindset is naturally more risk-tolerant and less concerned with the very real consequences of injecting uncertainty into alliances and trade pacts around the world. For this class of nationalists, the system is so broken that the time for big risk and sacrifice has arrived. To carry their ambitious agenda forward, the nationalists weaponize populism to control the message to the masses. Thus, distrust toward public institutions is naturally channeled toward the mainstream media. "Fake news" becomes a mantra to drive people toward sources of information that conform to their worldview. And truth gets sacrificed along the way. 

injecting :刺激を加える
sacrifice:犠牲
conform:合致する
along the way:ここに至るまでに

The nationalist mistrust toward political institutions plays out on a multinational level as well. If the nation has reached such a level of crisis that it needs to be saved, why should a country like the United States needlessly tether itself to international bodies that require ever-greater sacrifices from the global superpower? The UN, NATO and newer arrangements such as the Paris Accord are seen as straitjackets to American power as opposed to the natural evolution of a postwar foundation to stabilize the world and guarantee U.S. supremacy through trade and security linkages across the globe. 

needlessly:必要もないのに
tether:つなぐ
straitjackets:拘束服 

This is why nationalists scoff at the fluffy notion of "global citizenship." "There is no global anthem. No global currency. No certificate of global citizenship. We pledge allegiance to one flag and that flag is the American flag." - U.S. President Donald Trump 

scoff:ばかにする
fluffy:ふわふわした
anthem:賛歌・国歌
allegiance:忠誠

"If you believe you are a citizen of the world, you are a citizen of nowhere." - UK Prime Minister Theresa May  "Now, the dividing line is not between left and right, but globalists and patriots." - French National Right Leader Marine Le Pen 

Citizenship, after all, is a loaded word. The concept traces a history that stretches from the ancient Greek polis to the Roman Republic and the Italian city-states of the Renaissance, then fusing with the early Westphalian concept of a nation-state and the spawning of nationalism in the French Revolution and democracy in the New World. The European Union's experimentation with open borders and the forces of globalization in the modern era introduced a new and still unresolved dimension to the concept of citizenship. But the essence of what it means to be a citizen remains. 

loaded:多くを含んでいる
fusing:に導火線を取り付ける
Westphalian concept:ヴェストファーレン条約( Peace of Westphalia)は、1648年に締結された三十年戦争の講和条約で、ミュンスター講和条約とオスナブリュック講和条約の総称である。ラテン語読みでウェストファリア条約とも呼ばれる。近代における国際法発展の端緒となり、近代国際法の元祖ともいうべき条約である。 この条約によって、ヨーロッパにおいて30年間続いたカトリックとプロテスタントによる宗教戦争は終止符が打たれ、条約締結国は相互の領土を尊重し内政への干渉を控えることを約し、新たなヨーロッパの秩序が形成されるに至った。
spawning:引き起こす
experimentation:実験

As Aristotle described centuries ago, man is a political animal and a virtuous and natural path to law and order is for citizens to live under a rule of law and to take an active part in the communities with which they share blood and common values. Citizenship is a collection of rights protected by political institutions and excluded to non-citizens. And the test of citizen loyalty is the willingness of man to die for those rights. Global citizenship, therefore, is a hollow concept if there is no legitimate entity with the capacity to protect the community it claims to represent. This is particularly so when that community is fundamentally divided by its national imperatives. How many people are willing to die for the Paris Accord, the United Nations charter or even the European Union? Globally engaged should not be conflated with global citizenship.

virtuous:徳の高い
imperatives:責務・義務
conflated:まとめる

世界主義者に対して民族主義者の話だが、トランプに見られるように、一般大衆に受けの良い政治をしようとする。それが短期的に成果を出すような言い方をするが、そんなことは短期で実現はできない。大衆に迎合した言い方をしているが、現実にはそうしたことは実現できない。また、世界においては今までのアメリカのように世界をまとめていこうとするようなことはしない。アメリカのことしか考えない。世界市民などという考えは毛頭念頭にない。

金曜日。大学同窓の会食。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 20:43コメント(0) 

2017年07月12日

世界主義者、民族主義者、愛国主義者

Jun 27, 2017 | 22:28 GMT
Globalists, Nationalists and Nationalists
By Reva Goujon
VP of Global Analysis, Stratfor

世界主義者、民族主義者、愛国主義者

In times of global angst, we tend to organize ourselves into rival camps and casually hurl political epithets at each other as a matter of practice and principle. A couple of similarly angst-ridden generations ago, identifying yourself as a communist or capitalist could provide you with a medal or land you in jail, depending on where you were in the world and the company you kept. Now, it is self-proclaimed globalists and nationalists who are pitted against each other in a battle to passionately defend or radically reconstruct the global order. 

angst:不安・苦悩
camp:陣営
organize ourselves:団結する
hurl:非難を浴びせる
epithets :罵倒語句
angst-ridden:不安に支配された
land:に陥る
self-proclaimed:自称の
pit against:戦わせる

Previous columns have examined the underlying forces — from aging populations in the advanced industrial world, to technological change compensating for lagging productivity, to major evolutions in global trade — that have put this most recent global rebalancing in motion. This rebalancing will take generations to play out but is growing more visible by the day. Just watch the battle lines being drawn by the "globalists" and "nationalists" from within the tense corridors of the White House to the flag-lined stage of the upcoming G20 summit in Hamburg, where host German Chancellor Angela Merkel will once again face off against U.S. President Donald Trump.

compensating:埋めあわせる
tense corridor:張り詰めた通路
flag-lined:旗が並んだ

Divided Camps
At the risk of oversimplifying, the so-called globalists celebrate deeper connectivity around the world. In global trade, complex supply chains have stretched from continent to continent, moving parts, ideas and technologies multiple times across borders to produce a single good. All of this raises the wealth of the developing world in the process. Globalists see the rapid pace of urbanization as both a threat and an opportunity. 

If roughly half of the world is currently urbanized, and two-thirds of the world's population is expected to live in cities by 2050, cities — and the politicians who govern them — will be expected to provide water, power, food, transportation infrastructure, affordable housing and jobs to the arriving masses. Or else, political upheaval will ensue. That looming stress on local and planet-wide resources drives technological progress — from vertical farming to modular construction to battery innovation — to find solutions, enhancing along the way the clout of more innovative corporations that can agilely fill voids left by the state.

upheaval:激変
ensue:すぐに起こる
Vertical farming:垂直農法(垂直農業)は、 高層建築物の階層、及び高層の傾斜面を使用して垂直的に農作業、動物の育成を行う方法。
modular construction:モジュール工法
agilely:すばしこく
voids:空間

Nationalism is a dirty word for most globalists. The mention of it conjures disturbing images of parades filled with high-kneed marches and stiff salutes, a blinding embrace of propaganda and the threat of losing a generation to war. Globalists subscribe to the postwar liberal order that argues for collective security arrangements, such as NATO, and ambitious political unions, like the European Union, to tame nationalist fervor. Moreover, many globalists, particularly in the West, regard the United States as a superpower, or least a first among equals. Indeed, it is a nation equipped with the resources and foundational values to play a leading role in governing the globe among other like-minded nations. That responsibility traces back to the Bretton Woods system set up in the postwar order, where the United States guaranteed secure access to markets through its overwhelming control of the seas and used that as a basis to construct a globe-spanning network of allies. 

dirty:嫌な
conjures:思い起こす
stiff:硬直した
tame:制御する
fervor:情熱
like-minded:考え方が似た
spanning:またがる

The current iteration of this globalist message tends to resonate with a more youthful demographic that embraces technology and seeks international exposure as a way of life. Advocates bristle at talk of nostalgia for 'simpler' times, regarding such rhetoric as a gross distortion of history. The globalists are more willing to project their minds decades into the future in an attempt to tackle problems that will impact future generations. 

iteration:反復
bristle:身構える
gross distortion:著しい歪曲

We associate leaders such as Former U.S. President Barack Obama, French President Emmanuel Macron, former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — and even powerful princelings further east like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — with a camp of contemporary globalist leaders. While there is a youthful face to this club, the globalist-nationalist divide is not simply a function of age or generational divide. Those who know and fear their history, like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, have risked their own political careers to defend a globalist agenda in an age of resurgent nationalism.

On the other hand, the older nationalists who lived through the chaos of the destruction of the Soviet Union in Russia regard the globalist-minded millennials protesting in the streets of Moscow as dangerously naive and blind to their own history. 

naive :世間知らずの・素朴な

Nationalists tend to see the globalists as spineless and misguided. A deep understanding of the past, and a vision toward the future, does little good if politicians are skipping over the problems festering before their eyes today. The nationalists preach a seductive message of taking back control of one's life, of one's nation. They minimize the consumer benefits of global trade and emphasize instead the tragedy that has befallen low-skilled workers who are ill prepared to keep pace with automation and free trade. Their mindset is entrenched in the present. Why spend time poring over demographic and climate charts when the solutions to those problems are wholly intangible to the common man and woman suffering today? 

spineless:意気地のない
festering:悪化する
entrenched:変わることない
intangible:掴みどころのない

世界の動きが世界主義者が中心になってきたが、ここに来て、トランプのような愛国主義者が出てきた。そのため、気象変動、自由貿易についての議論が世界のリーダーの間でまとまらない。世界が協調してお互いに良い世界を築いていこうとする中で、トランプの考えを受け入れようとする国家はないが、アメリカの国民は彼を支持している。そうしたアメリカの国民の考えを理解しようとしないととトランプの行動は理解できない。だた彼が専制君主的な性格を持っているのが災いしている。それと合わさって彼の政策が歪曲されている。もう少し、彼の考えを深く検討して見る必要はある。

木曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 23:23コメント(0) 

2017年07月10日

選挙の勝利はフランスの大統領に強力な力を与えるだろう。 しかし彼は依然として大衆からの挑戦を威圧しなければならない。

Electoral victory will make France’s president a potent force
But he will still have to face down a challenge from the street
Print edition | Leaders
Jun 17th 2017

選挙の勝利はフランスの大統領に強力な力を与えるだろう。
しかし彼は依然として大衆からの挑戦を威圧しなければならない。




FLORENCE LEHERICY is a nurse, but on Monday she is likely to start a new career as a parliamentary deputy for Calvados, in northern France. Jean-Marie Fievet, a fireman, will join her from a constituency in Deux Sevres in the west. Both are political novices. They belong to La Republique en Marche! (LRM), the movement behind Emmanuel Macron, who last month also won his first ever election—and duly took control of the Elysee Palace. Welcome to the revolution. 

constituency:支援団体・有権者
novices:初心者
duly:まさしく・予定通りに

Across France people have risen up against a political class that failed them. The first round of voting for the legislature, on June 11th, suggests that LRM, which Mr Macron created only 14 months ago, will win at least 400 of its 577 seats. The Socialists will lose 90% of their deputies, including their leader who did not even make the run-off. The Republicans will hang on to more, but they expected to win this election—until a few weeks ago, when LRM’s victory became as inevitable as the blade sliding down the guillotine. 

failed them:彼らを失望させた
run-off:決選投票
hang on to:しがみつく 

Mr Macron offers a fresh answer to the popular discontent that has swept through Western democracies. He promises a new politics that ditches divisions between left and right. He wants to restore dynamism and self-belief to France and, with Germany’s help, to the European Union. And he is being watched from abroad by politicians who, in their own countries, cannot seem to make themselves heard above the din. For his revolution to succeed, he needs to have good ideas and the ability to carry them through. Does he?

self-belief :自信
din:騒々しさにかき消されて

A different kind of rebel
Mr Macron is the right man at the right time. Voters tired of France’s stale politics wanted an outsider. Although he comes from the establishment—he is a graduate of an elite college, an ex-banker and an economy minister under his predecessor, Francois Hollande—Mr Macron has never been a party man. He has designed LRM to act as a break with the past. Half of its candidates are new to politics. Half are women. It has campaigned against corruption. In the outgoing assembly the most common age is 60-70; the average of LRM’s novices is 43. 

revel:謳歌・どんちゃん騒ぎ
stale:新鮮味のない

Whereas most populists cleave to right and left, the Macron revolution is to the centre. He steals policies without prejudice—from the right, a desire to free up markets and businesses to create jobs and wealth; from the left, a belief in the role of government to shape, direct and protect. In the battle between open and closed, Mr Macron is broadly for open in both trade and immigration. In French terms, he is an economic liberal. 

cleave:分裂させる
steals:盗用する
prejudice:偏見を持たずに
protect:保護する

And, crucially, he is an optimist. For decades France has suffered from the morose belief that politics involves struggle, but no real solutions. That sabotages reform: why give up what you have today for something worse tomorrow? Elsewhere in Europe, democracy often seems a joyless transaction in which voters are asked to endorse politicians’ empty promises in exchange for benefit cuts and shoddy public services. 

crucially:決定的なことに
morose:陰気な
sabotages:を妨害する
shoddy:ごまかしの・見掛け倒しの 

Somehow, Mr Macron has convinced the French that progress is possible. He has hit back against populist taunts that free markets are a concession to the bankers and the globalists with refreshing patriotism—whether by crushing the hand of Donald Trump or restoring pomp to the presidency. Against warnings about immigrants and foreign competition, he asserts that both will invigorate France, not enfeeble it. To Eurosceptics who accuse Brussels of sucking the life out of the nation, he insists that, no, the EU magnifies French power. 

convinced:納得させる
taunts:嘲る
concession:譲歩
crushing the hand of:の手を握りつぶす
pomp:高邁な振る舞い
invigorate:を元気づける
enfeeble:弱らせる
sucking the life out of:活力を失わせる

Good ideas are not enough. Mr Macron must also break the habit of 30 years in which France’s reforms have been blocked by the hard left. Success rests on early, visible progress in two areas—employment and relations with Germany. 

French unemployment is double what it is in Germany. For the under 25s, it is stuck above 20%. Firms are reluctant to create permanent jobs because of high social charges and because redundancy and dismissal are expensive and difficult. Mr Macron wants to lower employment taxes and to make workplace bargaining more flexible. Success in the labour market will help him win over Germany, which has lost faith in France’s ability to keep up. So will getting a grip on France’s public spending and its army of bureaucrats. Germany, often standoffish, should give Mr Macron the benefit of the doubt. He is the best, and possibly last, chance to create the impetus for the euro zone to shore up the structure of the single currency. 

edundancy:一時解雇
dismissal :解雇
bargaining:交渉
lost faith in:不信感を抱く
standoffish:よそよそしい
benefit of the doubt:疑わしい点を好意的に解釈させること
possibly last:とっておきの
impetus:推進力
shore up:人がそばに座るために詰める

LRM’s landslide makes this programme more likely to succeed. Mr Macron has been lucky. His chief opponent on the mainstream right, Francois Fillon, was fatally damaged by allegations of corruption. LRM’s victory will be flattered by France’s two-round voting system. A strong EU economy will create jobs (if he is not to jeopardise that, he needs to go easy on the budget cuts). As Theresa May, Britain’s hapless prime minister, can attest, firm control of the assembly will cement his good fortune. However, resistance will move to the streets. 

flattered:引き立たせる
jeopardise:危険にさらす
hapless:不運な
attest:実証する

Already, the ancien regime is warning that the election leaves Mr Macron dangerously powerful, and that the turnout of under 50% has deprived him of a mandate. Militant hard-left unions are threatening to fight his labour-market reforms all the way. They must be faced down. The French president is indeed powerful—but in recent years the problem has been the weakness of the Elysee, not its dominance. The turnout was low, but it has been falling for years and is not much lower than in America or Canada. The unions speak for only the 8% of workers who are their members. That is no mandate. It is what ordinary citizens like Ms Lehericy and Mr Fievet have been elected to sweep away. 

ancien regime:アンシャンレジーム〘フランス革命(1789年)以前のフランスの政治社会制度〙 旧社会[政治]体制.
turnout:投票者総数
deprived:奪う
mandate:信任
faced down:威圧する
sweep away:押し流す

Renaissance man
Plenty could go wrong. Expectations of Mr Macron are sky high. Though LRM has experienced politicians to keep order, it could prove chaotic and amateurish. There will be strikes and marches. As the pain bites, the French public will need to hear again and again why reform will benefit the nation. 

chaotic:混乱した
amateurish:未熟な

These risks are obvious. More remarkable is the revolution that Mr Macron has already achieved. The hopes of France, Europe and centrists everywhere are resting on him.

rest on:に目が向けられる

マクロンが知りしたが、彼は左でも右でもない。革命的な結果だ。彼の党は結党して一年にも満たない。そのため未熟なメンバーも多い。期待はされているが、未経験者が多いので、リスクも大きい。彼は市場開放と労働雇用の柔軟性を求めている。フランスはいままで暗いイメージの政治であったが、彼に期待が集まっている。何だかかっての、日本の民主党をイメージされるが、杞憂であってほしい。

火曜日。スリランカの投資の件で小泉さんが来社。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 20:54コメント(0) 
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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