2017年11月10日

フィリピン軍はイスラム過激派に占領されていた都市を奪回した。 しかし、その戦いは5ヶ月も要した。

The Philippine army recaptures a city seized by Muslim insurgents
But the battle dragged on for five months
Oct 21st 2017 | MANILA

フィリピン軍はイスラム過激派に占領されていた都市を奪回した。
しかし、その戦いは5ヶ月も要した。



THE city of Marawi, President Rodrigo Duterte declared on October 17th, has been liberated from the jihadists who had seized control of it. Mr Duterte was speaking in Marawi a day after Philippine forces had killed Isnilon Hapilon, a leader of Abu Sayyaf, a local militant group, who had declared allegiance to Islamic State (IS). That, in effect, puts an end to the attempt by IS to establish a South-East Asian outpost of its collapsing caliphate. But it took five months of fighting for the army to regain control of the city. And there is a risk that disaffected Filipino Muslims will redirect their aggression into terrorism and extortion, which have racked the southern island of Mindanao, in particular, for decades. 

allegiance:忠誠
disaffected:【組織政府などに】不満[不平]のある, 忠誠心を失った, 反逆心のある
redirect:【別の場所に】〈活力資財など〉を向け直す,
aggression:攻撃
extortion:強奪
racked:〈小作人など〉を搾取する

The day after Mr Hapilon’s death, the government said the battle for Marawi had killed 847 IS fighters, 163 soldiers or policemen and 47 civilians. It has emptied the city and surrounding areas, displacing nearly 1.1m people. The fighting has left few buildings in the city centre undamaged and many destroyed. And the lawlessness it suggested has alarmed allies and neighbours. 

IS made a determined effort to take Marawi, the biggest city with a Muslim majority in the Philippines, which is largely Catholic. Fighters belonging to Mr Hapilon’s branch of Abu Sayyaf and to another band of Muslim militants, called the Maute group, showed themselves in the city in May. The Filipino fighters were reinforced by armed foreigners and financed by IS. 

The attackers infiltrated Marawi in strength and stealthily stockpiled munitions before a single shot was fired. But the security forces detected the presence of Mr Hapilon and tried to arrest him, flushing his fighters from cover. The jihadists quickly fell back to the city centre, allowing most of the population of 200,000 to flee. Mr Hapilon may have assumed that Mr Duterte’s frequent vituperation of America would mean that American forces would not support their Filipino allies. If so, he was wrong. 

vituperation:罵倒

Mr Duterte imposed martial law on Mindanao and poured troops into Marawi. His soldiers fought slowly from house to house, impeded by snipers and booby traps. The air force bombed buildings thought to harbour jihadists, causing much destruction. American forces provided discreet surveillance. 

impeded:邪魔される
booby trap:仕掛け地雷、仕掛け爆弾
follow at a discreet distance:慎重に距離をあけて尾行する

The government and Mindanao’s main armed Muslim movement, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, have struck a peace agreement entailing greater autonomy for some Muslim-majority areas. The deal is meant to end the decades-old Muslim rebellion in Mindanao and reduce the attraction of jihad. The ranks of insurgents opposed to this agreement have been thinned by the fighting in Marawi. Yet many Muslims, embittered by conflict and poverty, remain hostile to the Philippine authorities. It may be hard to recruit them for another futile attempt to capture and hold territory—but the more rewarding and safer pursuits of kidnapping, extortion and bombing may not have lost their appeal. 

entailing:を伴う
embittered:つらい思いをしている, 苦しんでいる
futile:make a futile attempt [effort] むだな企て[努力]をする.
appeal:要求 lose one's appeal 魅力を失う

ドゥテルテはミンダナオの過激派を5ヶ月掛けて撃退した。モロ・イスラム解放戦線と和解することになった。これで、フィリピンはISILの影響をやっと断ち切ることが出来た。それでもイスラム教徒は不満を持っているが、自治権を与えたので、何十年にも渡る過激派の行動は沈静化されることになる。

土曜日。今日は運野塾がある。午前はシンガポールの民主主義で、午後は日本のグローバリゼーションだ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:16コメント(0) 

2017年11月09日

中国の第19回共産党大会が何で、何故重要なのか。 この5年毎の会合は習近平の権力の強さを示すだろう。

What is China’s 19th Communist Party congress and why does it matter?
This quinquennial gathering will indicate the strength of Xi Jinping’s authority
Oct 17th 2017by J.P. | BEIJING

中国の第19回共産党大会が何で、何故重要なのか。
この5年毎の会合は習近平の権力の強さを示すだろう。

quinquennial:recurring every five years.


ON OCTOBER 18TH Xi Jinping, the leader of China’s Communist Party, will kick off a big party gathering in the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. It will look like innumerable other party meetings. There will be a huge throng, 2,300-strong, mostly men in dark suits, a few of them in tribal costumes. There will be long speeches with impenetrable verbiage. No policies will change. 

innumerable:innumerable times [people] 数えきれないほど何度も[多くの人].
throng:a throng of reporters 大勢の報道陣
impenetrable:理解できない, 不可解な.
verbiage:言葉遣い, 言い回し.

But this meeting matters more than most because party congresses take place just once every five years and this is the first one to be chaired by Mr Xi. Like all congresses, it will revise the party constitution and elect a new political elite—the 370 or so members of the party’s Central Committee, to which all important decision-makers belong. It will also be a coronation and a test for Mr Xi. The coronation will reveal how much authority he has accumulated over the party. The test will reveal whether he is a rule-breaker or a rule-keeper. 

coronation:戴冠(たいかん)式, 即位式

China’s Communist Party has held congresses since its foundation. The first was in 1921. But the practice of quinquennial gatherings dates to Deng Xiaoping’s attempts in the 1980s to introduce a sense of order and predictability after the chaos of the Cultural Revolution. Deng also introduced a number of other rules, or norms, that have more or less been kept for 20 years. 

sense of order《a 〜》秩序感覚
predictability:予測[予知・予報・予言・予見]可能性

Among them: that the leader should retire after two terms and appoint a successor after the first (meaning, in Mr Xi’s case, now); that there should be fixed retirement ages for top leaders (68 for the Central Committee); that people should move up the party in incremental steps, not leaps and bounds; and that at the end of his term the leader should be granted a kind of ideological canonisation, with an ideology associated with him written into the party’s constitution. All these rules are up for grabs at the coming congress. 

canonisation:列聖◆カトリック教会では福者(blessed)を聖人(saint)にすることを指す。偶像化
A is up for grabs.:(希望者なら誰でも)A〈仕事賞チャンスなど〉が手に入る, 入手可能である.

The 19th congress is unusual because an exceptional number of people will retire or, following their arrest, be replaced. Mr Xi has already replaced the party leaders and governors in all but one of China’s 31 provinces, as well as most of the leadership of the army and roughly half his ministers. The replacement of almost three-quarters of the Central Committee will complete his dominance over the party. 

arrest:停止

The congress will also reveal how Mr Xi intends to use his authority. If he replaces the prime minister with the anti-corruption chief, Wang Qishan, that would signal an extremely assertive approach and a willingness to break the rules. (Recent prime ministers have served two terms; at 69, Mr Wang breaches the retirement rule, too.)

assertive:しっかり自己主張する, 積極的な; 断定的な; 独断的な.

If Mr Xi promotes the 57-year-old Chen Min’er to the Standing Committee of the Politburo (the committee with the highest prestige), and no one else from the so-called sixth generation (born in the 1960s), that would indicate Mr Chen was being groomed as a successor. It would also show that Mr Xi is willing to ignore the rule about step-wise promotion, since Mr Chen has enjoyed a meteoric rise. 

Chen Min’er:陳 敏爾は中国の政治家。中国共産党第18期中央委員会委員、重慶市党委書記。 習近平党総書記の側近であり、第6世代の実力者。
groom : 新郎, 花婿(bridegroom)
meteoric: a meteoric rise (人気階級などの)急上昇, 大出世.

But if Mr Xi promotes two sixth-generation leaders, that would imply the president is not willing to appoint a successor yet, which may in turn suggest he is considering staying on after the end of his normal term in power in 2022. If the congress changes the constitution to include a named reference to Mr Xi’s ideological writings, that would be a strong marker of his authority. His two predecessors received this honour only when they were retiring, and their names were not mentioned. Including Mr Xi in the party’s constitution would make him an ideological arbiter. 

arbiter:裁決[決定]者; (ある分野の)権威(者).

The question is whether his elevated position will make any difference to policy. Mr Xi’s supporters say it will. They argue that economic reform is being stifled by opposition in the bureaucracy and that once Mr Xi has his allies in place he will be able to override resistance. But the chances must be against a burst of market-oriented change. Mr Xi has not exactly been powerless up till now. He pushed through a big change to state-owned enterprises in 2017, and that did little to introduce competition either into the management of enterprises or the sectors they dominate. Reform, under Mr Xi, has meant trying to improve the efficiency of the state sector by setting targets and sending in teams of inspectors. That seems unlikely to change. 

習近平はこの第19回の共産党大会で、次の主席候補を指名したようだが、今までの慣習を破って、大きな人事を行った。31省のうち一人を除いてすべて入れ替え、部長の半分を差し替えた。中央委員会のメンバーも4分3を入れ替えた。しかしながら、経済の分野では国営企業の効率化ぐらいしか考えていないようだ。習近平の権力の集中化は人事を視ると実現したようだ。陳 敏爾が後継者候補のようだ。

金曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:19コメント(0) 

2017年11月08日

キルギスタンの選挙は結果がはじめからわかっている選挙ではなかった。 民主主義の勝利でもなかった。

Kyrgyzstan holds an election that was not a foregone conclusion
Nor was it a triumph of democracy
Oct 21st 2017 | BISHKEK

キルギスタンの選挙は結果がはじめからわかっている選挙ではなかった。
民主主義の勝利でもなかった。

foregone conclúsion:〖a 〜〗初めからわかっている結論; 必然的結果.



AS THE young man hesitated, golden autumn leaves drifted down onto the streets of Bishkek, the relaxed capital of Kyrgyzstan. “It’s a choice between old and new. I can’t decide,” he explained, as he hovered outside the polling station. The choice was as unusual as it was difficult. Kyrgyzstan—a mountainous post-Soviet country of 6m people bordering China—was holding the first genuinely competitive presidential election in Central Asia, a region ruled by strongmen who typically romp home with close to 100% of the vote. 

hovered : I noticed a waiter hovering behind us. 後方にウェイターが控えているのに気づいた
romp:romp home [ín, to víctory]〈人競走馬などが〉(競走試合などで)楽勝する.

In the end a majority of Kyrgyzstan’s voters plumped for old over new, or at least continuity over change, electing Sooronbay Jeyenbekov, a former prime minister anointed by outgoing president Almazbek Atambayev. Mr Jeyenbekov, a dour 58-year-old with all the panache of a Soviet apparatchik, beat his more dynamic rival, Omurbek Babanov, a 47-year-old businessman (and also a former prime minister) with 55% of the vote. That may seem like a comfortable victory by Western standards, but it is a far cry from the 89% Uzbekistan’s president racked up last year, or the 98% polled by the rulers of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in their most recent re-elections. 

plumped: (2名以上選ぶべき場合に)【ただ1人の候補者にだけ】投票する ≪for≫ .
anointed:指名する
dour:頑固な 活気のない
panache:堂々たる態度; 見えっ張り; さっそうとしていること.
far cry from:ほど遠い
racked up:〈利益得点など〉を得る

Mr Babanov, who came second in a field of 11 candidates with 34%, conceded defeat gracefully, defusing fears that the election could spark political turmoil in a country where two presidents have been overthrown in the past 12 years. As Mr Babanov said: “The people have spoken.” Yet in the same breath he complained of electoral misconduct that he believes robbed him, if not of victory, then of a fair fight.

conceded:を(事実だと)(しぶしぶ)認める
gracefully:いさぎよく〈負けるなど〉
defusing :〈緊張など〉を和らげる, 静める.
The government was overthrown in a military coup.:軍事クーデターで政府は転覆した.
in the same breath:今言った言葉に続けてすぐに〔それと相反することを言う〕
misconduct:不正行為 
rob a bank:銀行を襲う

Kyrgyzstan has a biometric voting system that precludes the blatant election-rigging that prevails elsewhere in Central Asia, but international observers listed flaws ranging from vote-buying to media bias and the harnessing of the state to back Mr Jeyenbekov. A deputy prime minister, for example, was caught on film instructing a group of civil servants to vote for him. 

biometric:身体特徴を記録した〈データ情報など〉〘指紋虹彩など〙
precludes:〈事物人が〉〈事〉を不可能にする
blatant:露骨な

Mr Babanov’s rivals also deployed ugly dog-whistle politics, smearing him as unfit to be president because he is half-Turkish and has a Kazakh wife. They also misleadingly edited footage of one of his rallies to portray him as trying to rile members of the Uzbek minority in southern Kyrgyzstan—incendiary tactics in a country where clashes in 2010 between Kyrgyz people and Uzbeks led to hundreds of deaths. 

dog-whistle:特定の人たちだけが分かる
smearing:中傷する
rile:激怒させる
incendiary:扇動的な〈発言など〉.

Mr Atambayev likes to portray himself as a devoted democrat—but to get his handpicked successor elected, he resorted to tricks straight out of the authoritarian playbook. The opposition leader, Omurbek Tekebayev, was jailed ahead of the vote on suspiciously conveniently timed corruption charges. During the campaign some of Mr Babanov’s supporters were arrested, improbably enough, for plotting the violent overthrow of the state. 

handpicked:〜を自分に都合の良いように選ぶ
resorted:resort to violence 暴力に訴える
improbably:ありそうにもないことだが; 異常[奇妙]に; 不思議にも

The defeated candidate fears he may be next to land in prison, after Mr Jeyenbekov promised during a heated television debate to start fighting corruption—a constant blight in Kyrgyzstan—by imprisoning Mr Babanov. Mr Atambayev, for his part, pledged on election day to keep jailing anyone who “pulls stunts”. These tensions may get worse. The ruling party, led by Mr Jeyenbekov, will have to work with the opposition in parliament, including Mr Babanov’s faction, the second largest in the legislature. 

land:That could land him in trouble.:そんなことをしたら彼は面倒なことになるだろう.
blight: (植物に害を及ぼす)菌, 害虫.【前途希望などを】くじくもの, 障害 ≪on≫ . (都市などの)荒廃; 荒廃の原因.
pull a stunt:曲芸飛行をする、妙技[離れ技・世間を驚かす行為]を成功させる[成し遂げる・やってのける]
faction:split into warring [rival] factions 敵対する派閥に分裂する.

By stepping down, Mr Atambayev has broken the mould by giving up power after one term, as the constitution dictates, in a region where leaders tend to die in office and the longest-serving president—Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev—has ruled for over a quarter of a century. But the government’s blatant bias during the campaign was at odds with this apparent diffidence. That has prompted speculation that Mr Atambayev wants to remain the power behind the throne. 

mould:break the mold (従来の)型を破る.
dictates:〈仕事命令など〉を厳しく命令する
at odds with:〜と不和で、〜と争って、〜と意見が食い違って、〜との関係が悪化して
diffidence:自信のなさ 気後れ

By staging the region’s first ever competitive election, Kyrgyzstan has marked itself out as a democracy of sorts. But the true test lies ahead: will the outgoing and incoming presidents allow democracy to flourish, or nip it in the bud? 

nip ~ in the bud:〜をつぼみのうちに摘み取る

キルギスタンの選挙は不正に行われたようだ。初めての投票による選挙だったが、期待されたビジネスマンのOmurbek Babanovは落選し、今までの政権の流れをくむSooronbay Jeyenbekovが当選した。アメリカの選挙と同様に、色々はイカサマが横行し、せっかくの投票が民主主義とは逆行したものになった。

木曜日。今日はこれまで。

swingby_blog at 22:38コメント(0) 

2017年11月07日

Walter Bagehotは政府が国民投票をしたので嫌ってきた。 「英国憲法」の著者はEUびいきではないが、Brexitも支持していない。

Walter Bagehot would have loathed government by referendum
The author of “The English Constitution” was no Europhile, but nor would he have backed Brexit
Oct 21st 2017

Walter Bagehotは政府が国民投票をしたので嫌ってきた。
「英国憲法」の著者はEUびいきではないが、Brexitも支持していない。

loathed:Many children loathe spinach. 子供にはホウレンソウ嫌いが多い.


EARLY day motions are parliamentary devices which give backbench MPs a chance to ask for a debate on a subject they choose. Two such motions doing the rounds note that this year marks the 150th anniversary of the publication of Walter Bagehot’s “The English Constitution”. The first, tabled by two Conservatives, notes that Bagehot’s “great facility” for explaining the “practical workings” of the political system ensures that his classic text remains “both relevant and highly influential today”. The second, tabled by five Labour MPs, invokes Bagehot as it urges Europe’s nations to ensure that “parliaments do not become mere constitutional decoration in the face of the continuing encroachment of the EU on parliamentary democracy.” 

The motion was adopted [carried, passed] overwhelmingly.:その発議は圧倒的多数で可決された
The device is doomed to fail.:その計画[たくらみ]は絶対に失敗する.
backbench:平議員連
tabled:審議をする 上程する
facility:with great facility⦅かたく⦆いとも簡単に.
the inner workings of the mind:心の内部の働き.
decoration: interior decoration 室内装飾
encroachment: the encroachment of law on international waters 公海に関する法の侵害.

Bagehot’s great work is still worth debating. G.M. Young, the foremost historian of Victorian England, argued that Walter Bagehot (pronounced to rhyme roughly with gadget) was nothing less than “the greatest Victorian”. He was certainly the greatest Victorian journalist-cum-intellectual. He edited The Economist for 16 years, until his death from pneumonia in 1877, aged just 51. He wrote on a wide range of subjects, from politics to literature to finance. “Lombard Street”, his analysis of a Victorian banking panic, still provides central bankers with their template for what to do in a crisis, as Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve during the crisis of 2008, fulsomely acknowledges. 

-cum-: a souvenir shop-cum-restaurant 土産(みやげ)物屋兼食堂.
intellectual:知識人
pneumonia:acute pneumonia 急性肺炎.
fulsomely:〈お世辞謝辞などが〉(嫌味なほど)度を越した.
acknowledge the failure 失敗を認める

“The English Constitution” revolutionised political debate because it succeeded in exposing the reality of power behind the facade of abstract formulae. Montesquieu’s idea that government can be divided into three branches—the executive, legislative and judicial—had proved so influential that the Founding Fathers built it into America’s constitution. Bagehot argued that the real division of powers is that between the “dignified” and the “efficient” branches of government. The dignified branch consists of the monarchy, and Parliament when it is engaged in ceremony. 

facade:見せかけ
formulae:formulaの複数形
dignified:威厳のある
monarchy :君主政治, 君主制.

The efficient branch consists of the prime minister, the cabinet and the government ministries. The job of the dignified branch is to win the people’s loyalty by putting on a show. The job of the efficient branch is to use that loyalty to run the country. Bagehot argued that Britain is a “disguised republic” and a hidden meritocracy. The real rulers are secreted in the second-class carriages but are obeyed because of the splendour of the waxwork rulers in the first-class carriages. 

meritocracy:能力主義
a first-class carriage:1等車.
splendour:壮麗さ
waxwork:蝋人形
obey Newton's laws:ニュートンの法則に従って動く.

Bagehot expressed himself in sparkling prose. The monarchy puts “a family on the throne” and “brings down the pride of sovereignty to the level of petty life”. A “princely marriage is the brilliant edition of a universal fact”. The cabinet is a “hyphen which joins, a buckle which fastens” the executive to the legislature. Bagehot famously warned, in discussing the monarchy, against letting in daylight upon magic. But his every sentence is a shaft of brilliant light. 

sparkling:生き生きして
prose:be written in prose 散文で書かれている.
be on the throne:在位する, 王位にある
a petty crime(ひったくりなどの)小犯罪
princely:王子にふさわしい
hyphen:ハイフン
shaft:(光の)筋 a shaft of light 一条の光.

The five Labour MPs are certainly right that Bagehot would have worried about the transfer of power from Britain to the EU. As a creature of his time, he regarded continental Europe as a political backwater, governed by either unaccountable bureaucracies or wilful despots. And as a liberal pragmatist, he thought that power should be exercised as close to home as possible. It is possible to imagine Bagehot admiring the single market as an instrument of easier commerce. It is impossible to imagine him endorsing Utopian fantasies about forging an ever-closer union out of a hotch-potch of political systems and cultures. 

backwater:⦅否定的に⦆僻地(へきち); 沈滞した[遅れた]状態; 隔絶した場所.
wilful:わがままな; 強情な, 頑固な.
despots:専制君主
endorsing:支持する
enjoy ever-closer relations:ますます緊密な関係になる
hotch-potch:寄せ集め

That said, it is equally impossible to imagine Bagehot as a Brexiteer. He had doubts about extending the franchise to the uneducated masses, let alone giving power to the people in the form of a referendum. He thought that the popular will had to be filtered through institutions that tamed raw emotions and countered brute self-interest. Parliament was only the first of these institutions. Bagehot thought that MPs were wiser than the electorate in general but nevertheless too apt to act like a crowd. The heart of Parliament lay in the prime minister’s government, which had the responsibility to pursue the long-term good of the country, even if it meant ignoring the voice of the masses. For a prime minister to entrust the future of the country to a referendum would have struck him as an abomination. 

franchise:選挙権, 参政権; 公民権, 市民権.
raw emotion:生々しい[むき出しの]感情
countered :抑制する
brute:あるがままの a brute fact まぎれもない事実.
entrust:任せる
abomination:忌まわしい物[行為, 人] ≪to≫ ; 醜態; 不快[侮辱的]な事.

Governed by weakness of imagination
Bagehot thought that the genius of the British political system lay in its moderation. Moderation is the hallmark of cabinet rule, and of British culture. The British dislike grand ideologies, regarding them as the afflictions of foreigners—and particularly of those worst of all foreigners, the French. The Brexit referendum has replaced moderation with polarisation and realism with ideology. The Brexiteers have more in common with the sans-culottes of France than they have with sensible Victorian Englishmen. They are in the grip of an idea that knows no compromise—sovereignty pure and unsullied—and they are willing to support that idea even if it crumbles on contact with reality. This week a minister suggested that Britain could grow its own food if it reached no deal with the EU.

imagination:優れた問題解決力
genius:the genius of the English people 英国人の特性.
afflictions:苦痛
polarisation:〔社会や経済の〕分極[両極]化、格差の広がり
Sans-culotte:サン・キュロットとは、フランス語で「キュロットをはかないひと」というような意味で、フランス革命の推進力となった社会階層。主に手工業者、職人、小店主、賃金労働者などの無産市民(固定資産の無い人)を指し、当時のパリでは貧困層
sensible:分別のある  This is a sensible way of doing it. これがそれをやるのに分別ある方法というものだ
unsullied:純粋な
crumbles:をぼろぼろ[粉々]にする, 砕く

It may be too late to put the demon of populism, unleashed by the referendum, back into the constitutional bottle. The wild men of Brexit continue to drive the debate. Anyone who wants to compromise is labelled, disgracefully, a saboteur. Europe’s bureaucrats are playing into the wild men’s hands by focusing on legal niceties rather than strategic interests. But Bagehot’s “English Constitution” suggests that it is not too late to salvage the situation. Britain is a land of pragmatism, compromise and common sense. The ideological zealots who have brought the country to this sorry pass are impostors who are waiting for their bluff to be called. Parliament should debate the 150th anniversary of Bagehot’s “English Constitution”—and use that debate to consider the state of British democracy in an age of Brexit and bile. 

demon:鬼 名人
unleashed:解き放つ
wild:(激しい感情に駆られ)熱狂的な, 猛烈な
saboteur:破壊工作員; 妨害[阻止]しようとする人.
niceties:微妙な点
salvage:救い出す
impostors:ペテン師
bluff:はったり
bile:怒り, 不機嫌, むかつき.

150年前のWalter Bagehotの「英国憲法」の著書の内容を引用して、Brexitが馬鹿げているということを説得している。Brexitを支持している人たちはペテン師で、大衆に迎合した人たちだ。そもそも一般大衆に国民投票を求めること自体が間違いで、そうしたことは議会が行うべきとだ。大衆は無知で、感情に駆られるからそうしたことはしてはいけない。今からでも遅くはないので、Brexitを撤回するべきだ。

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。


swingby_blog at 20:33コメント(0) 

2017年11月06日

衰退する地域を支援する正しいやり方 地域の変化する経済に関しての新たな思考

The right way to help declining places
Time for fresh thinking about the changing economics of geography
Oct 21st 2017

衰退する地域を支援する正しいやり方
地域の変化する経済に関しての新たな思考

in one's declining years:晩年に.
the geography of poverty (ある地域における)貧困の分布.
produce fresh thinking on 〜に関する新たな思惑を生む


POPULISM’S wave has yet to crest. That is the sobering lesson of recent elections in Germany and Austria, where the success of anti-immigrant, anti-globalisation parties showed that a message of hostility to elites and outsiders resonates as strongly as ever among those fed up with the status quo. It is also the lesson from America, where Donald Trump is doubling down on gestures to his angry base, most recently by adopting a negotiating position on NAFTA that is more likely to wreck than remake the trade agreement (see article).

crest:頂点に達する, 
sobering:a sobering thought 考えさせられるもの[内容].
doubling down:倍賭けする
gestures:a nice gesture 思いやりのある意思表示
wreck:John's heavy drinking wrecked his marriage .:ジョンは酒の飲みすぎで結婚生活をめちゃくちゃにした.

These remedies will not work. The demise of NAFTA will disproportionately hurt the blue-collar workers who back Mr Trump. Getting tough on immigrants will do nothing to improve economic conditions in eastern Germany, where 20% of voters backed the far-right Alternative for Germany. But the self-defeating nature of populist policies will not blunt their appeal. Mainstream parties must offer voters who feel left behind a better vision of the future, one that takes greater account of the geographical reality behind the politics of anger. 

demise:(活動などの)終了, 停止; 終結.
self-defeating:自己破滅的な、自滅的な
blunt:The cold reaction from the teacher blunted the enthusiasm of the students. 教師のそっけない反応が生徒のやる気をそいでしまった.
left :置き去りにする(behind)
take account of:〜を考慮に入れる、〜に配慮する 〜に気付く、〜に注意する
geographical:地域に関する[特有の]

Economic theory suggests that regional inequalities should diminish as poorer (and cheaper) places attract investment and grow faster than richer ones. The 20th century bore that theory out: income gaps narrowed across American states and European regions. No longer. Affluent places are now pulling away from poorer ones (see article). This geographical divergence has dramatic consequences. A child born in the bottom 20% in wealthy San Francisco has twice as much chance as a similar child in Detroit of ending up in the top 20% as an adult. Boys born in London’s Chelsea can expect to live nearly nine years longer than those born in Blackpool. Opportunities are limited for those stuck in the wrong place, and the wider economy suffers. If all its citizens had lived in places of high productivity over the past 50 years, America’s economy could have grown twice as fast as it did.

bore:Time will bear me out [bear out what I say].:時が私(の話)の正しさを証明するだろう.
Affluent:〈地域人生活などが〉(経済的に)豊かな
pulling:引き離す
divergence:逆行現象
stuck: get stuck in traffic [a traffic jam] 交通渋滞に巻き込まれる

Divergence is the result of big forces. In the modern economy scale is increasingly important. The companies with the biggest hoards of data can train their machines most effectively; the social network that everyone else is on is most attractive to new users; the stock exchange with the deepest pool of investors is best for raising capital. These returns to scale create fewer, superstar firms clustered in fewer, superstar places. Everywhere else is left behind. 

clustered:集まる
diminishing returns to scale:《経済》規模に関する収穫逓減

Even as regional disparities widen, people are becoming less mobile. The percentage of Americans who move across state lines each year has fallen by half since the 1990s. The typical American is more footloose than the average European, yet lives less than 30 kilometres from his parents. Demographic shifts help explain this, including the rise in two-earner households and the need to care for ageing family members. But the bigger culprit is poor policies. Soaring housing costs in prosperous cities keep newcomers out. In Europe a scarcity of social housing leads people to hang on to cheap flats. In America the spread of state-specific occupational licensing and government benefits punishes those who move. The pension of a teacher who stays in the same state could be twice as big as that of a teacher who moves mid-career. 

disparities:不均衡
Even as:にもかかわらず
footloose:身軽な
two-earner:共働きの
culprit:原因
social housing:公営住宅
punishes:ひどい目に合わせる
mid-career employee:中途採用者

Perversely, policies to help the poor unintentionally exacerbate the plight of left-behind places. Unemployment and health benefits enable the least employable people to survive in struggling places when once they would have had no choice but to move. Welfare makes capitalism less brutal for individuals, but it perpetuates the problems where they live. 

Perversely:反対に
exacerbate:悪化させる
the plight of women in our society:私たちの社会における女性の苦境.
brutal:過酷な
perpetuates:永続させる

Welcome to the place age
What to do? One answer is to help people move. Thriving places could do more to build the housing and infrastructure to accommodate newcomers. Accelerating the reciprocal recognition of credentials across state or national borders would help people move to where they can be most productive. But greater mobility also has a perverse side-effect. By draining moribund places of talented workers, it exacerbates their troubles. The local tax-base erodes as productive workers leave, even as welfare and pension obligations mount. 

reciprocal:〈関係取り決めなどが〉相互の, 互恵的な
have excellent credentials for the job:その仕事の立派な実績がある.
draining:流出する
moribund:崩壊寸前の

To avoid these outcomes, politicians have long tried to bolster left-behind places with subsidies. But such “regional policies” have a patchy record, at best. South Carolina lured BMW to the state in 1992 and from it built a thriving automotive cluster. But the EU’s structural funds raise output and reduce unemployment only so long as funding continues. California has 42 enterprise zones. None has raised employment. Better for politicians to focus on speeding up the diffusion of technology and business practices from high-performing places. A beefed-up competition policy could reduce industrial concentration, which saps the economy of dynamism while focusing the gains from growth in fewer firms and places. Fostering clusters by encouraging the creation of private investment funds targeted on particular regions might help. 

cluster:あつまり
diffusion:普及
beefed-up:強化された
saps:徐々に奪う

Bolder still would be to expand the mission of local colleges. In the 19th century America created lots of public technical universities. They were supposed to teach best practice to farmers and factory managers in small towns and rural areas. They could play that role again today for new technologies, much as Germany already has a network of applied-research institutions. Politicians might even learn from Amazon, whose search for a home for a second headquarters has set off a scramble among cities hoping to lure the giant etailer. Governments could award public research centres—in the mould of America’s National Institutes of Health or Europe’s CERN—to cities which prepare the best plans for policy reform and public investment. This would aid the diffusion of new ideas and create an incentive for struggling places to help themselves. 

scramble:先を争うこと
etailer:Eテイラー〘ネット上で商品を売る小売業者; electronic retailerともいう〙
mould:型

Perhaps most of all, politicians need a different mindset. For progressives, alleviating poverty has demanded welfare; for libertarians, freeing up the economy. Both have focused on people. But the complex interaction of demography, welfare and globalisation means that is insufficient. Assuaging the anger of the left-behind means realising that places matter, too. 

Assuaging:和らげる
matter:重要である

貧困を解決する方法は福祉だとか、経済の活性化だとか議論する前に、その地域をどう認識するかが需要だ。人々に焦点を当てるだけでなく、地理的な要素を考える必要がある。ポピュリズムのような人気とりのような政策では長続きはしない。ドイツの移民政策とかトランプのNAFTA政策を見れば歴然だ。うまくいかない。人口動態、福祉、グローバリゼーションの錯綜した関係は人の側面からの対応ではしきれない。その地域の特性をどう見極めるかが重要な要素だ。

火曜日。今日はインタートレードの内藤さんが来社。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:53コメント(0) 

2017年11月05日

アルゼンチンの菜食主義の月曜日 幾つかの国々では人々が肉を食べないように説得sる方法を考えている

Argentina’s vegan Mondays
Some countries are considering ways to persuade people to stop eating meat
Oct 19th 2017by A.L.

アルゼンチンの菜食主義の月曜日
幾つかの国々では人々が肉を食べないように説得sる方法を考えている

vegan :完全な菜食主義者〘卵や乳製品も含めて動物性の食物をまったくとらない; →vegetarian〙.



ARGENTINA is famous for its beef. After winning independence from Spain in the early 19th century, the nascent republic beat swords into ploughshares and turned the southern Pampas into a regional breadbasket. The number of cows grew rapidly (Argentina is home to 5% of the world’s herd) and so, for many years, did beef consumption. But things are changing. In 2010 Argentines lost the title of the world’s biggest beefeaters, when measured by annual consumption per person, to neighbouring Uruguayans.

nascent :発生期[段階]の.
beat swòrds into plowshares:仲直りする, 和解する. 鋤の刃
herd:a herd of elephants 象の群れ.

Diego Vecino, a writer, lamented Argentina’s declining beef consumption and suggested the country was “immersed in shame”. Now it seems the Casa Rosada, the presidential palace, is embracing the trend. In a bid to start a debate on health and the national diet, it has instituted meat-free Mondays. For one lunch each week, the canteen will only serve vegan options to the 500-plus employees, including President Mauricio Macri. 

immersed:be immersed in debt 借金で首がまわらない.

The introduction of meatless Mondays to the Casa Rosada adds Argentina to the list of countries investigating ways to limit meat consumption. The countries of Latin America and the Caribbean are in the middle of an obesity crisis. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates that a majority of people are overweight in all but three countries of the region. Argentina has particular grounds for concern. The rate of obesity among its boys is the highest in Latin America, and among girls it is the third-highest. This has been linked to various causes, including excessive eating of beef. Daily consumption per person in Argentina—150g—is over double the recommended amount. 

all but:〜のほかは[〜を除いて]全て[全部・全員・皆]

And health concerns are not the only ones cited by those looking to reduce meat consumption. The livestock sector accounts for 15% of the world’s greenhouse-gas emissions–the equivalent of all the vehicles in the world. Animal pastures have been blamed for 90% of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Beef is a particularly voracious user of water, with 15,000 litres of water needed to produce a kilogram of the meat. 

pastures:牧草地
blamed:He blamed his friend for the accident [breaking the window]. 彼は事故の[窓を割った]責任を友人のせいにした
voracious: a voracious appetite 旺盛な食欲.

Critics of the Casa Rosada’s new policy see ulterior motives. The Argentine Beef Promotion Institute, a lobbying group, has denounced the move as a bid for votes. Indeed, the promotion of meat-free eating has become rather political. A German proposal from 2013 calling for “Veggie Day” in public canteens led to a backlash. It was condemned as an “ecological dictatorship” and received considerable attention in pre-election coverage. Germans voted “nein” to the Greens that year. Undeterred, the country’s environment ministry said earlier this year that it would stop serving meat and fish at official functions. But other ministries have been slow to follow suit. 

ulterior:ulterior motive 隠れた動機.
canteens:社員[学生]食堂(cafeteria).
backlash:急激な逆戻り
Undeterred:阻止されていない; くじけない, 挫折しない.

Governments can do more than lead by example. Portugal passed a law this year requiring a vegan option at public institutions. The UN’s International Resource Panel has called for governments to tax meat products. Researchers at Oxford University found that pricing food according to its climate impact could prevent more than half a million early deaths every year, largely in Europe, the United States, Australia and China. 

And surveys show that measures restricting meat consumption could be accepted by the public if justified in their interest. But opposition from lobbyists and libertarians remains. Argentina’s beef industry has been hampered in the past decade by government regulation, which included quotas on beef exports. Its cattle farmers are unlikely to welcome more regulation, no matter what is at stake. 

My pride is at stake here. : 私のプライドが懸かっている。/私のこけんに関わる問題です。

牛肉が肥満の原因になるとか、牛の育成には1kgあたり15000リットルもの水が必要だから、環境に良くなとかに意見がある。アルゼンチンでは月曜日は肉なしにしようという運動をしている。ドイツの環境大臣は公式な会議では肉とか魚を出すのをやめるそうだ。2013年のドイツの緑の党が野菜の日を提案したら、裏目に出て、票が減ってしまった。アルゼンチンはそれによって、牛肉の消費とか輸出が減ってしまう。

月曜日。今日は朝会と夜はトクヤマの湯浅さんとの会食がある。ではまた明日。



swingby_blog at 08:30コメント(0) 
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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