バングラディシュの50万人のロヒンギャの難民はすぐにはでていくことはないだろう。 実施にはもっと増えている。

The half-million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh will not leave soon
In fact, more keep arriving
Oct 19th 2017 | KUTUPALONG


THE Kutupalong refugee camp in Bangladesh does not seem temporary. It consists of thousands of tents made of plastic and bamboo spread across undulating terrain. Groups of male refugees carry long poles on their shoulders to erect even more. Fish, vegetables and fruit are for sale in a market. Half-naked children squat outside stalls selling sweets and biscuits; others splash in a muddy lake to escape the sweltering heat.

undulating country:起伏の多い地方.
erect a monument:記念碑を建てる.
sweltering:うだるように暑い, 蒸し暑い.

Long wooden bridges connect parts of the camps divided by water; steps have been carefully carved into the hillsides to ease access to the shelters perched on them. In late August the camp housed around 100,000 Rohingyas, a Muslim minority group from Rakhine state in nearby Myanmar. Now four times as many live there. 

perched:The farm is perched on a mountainside.その牧場は山腹にあるがとまる 

More than half a million Rohingyas have crossed the border to Bangladesh since August, joining hundreds of thousands who had already fled there from earlier pogroms (see chart). The exodus started after attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, a Rohingya extremist group, prompted the army to go on the rampage. The army’s violent campaign of retribution has been described by the UN’s top human-rights official as a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing”. 

pogroms:(職権による組織的)大虐殺[迫害]; (特に帝政ロシアでの)ユダヤ人虐殺.
rampage:go [be] on the [a] rampage 暴れ回る[回っている].

On October 16th the European Union severed ties with the army and barred senior officers from travelling to Europe. It also postponed a trade mission to Myanmar. Despite international indignation, however, Rohingyas continue to cross the border in large numbers, with tales of recent horrors: 12,000 arrived on October 16th alone. 

indignation:righteous indignation at the injustice 不当行為への義憤

Those who have made it to Bangladesh are still in precarious circumstances. Ibrahim, a slight 10-year-old in the Nayapara camp, describes how his father was killed by the army; when he went to look for the body, he says, he saw Buddhist extremists decapitating corpses. Now he, his mother and his younger brother live in a camp where the walkways are lined with rubbish. They are hungry. “It would have been better if we had died there,” he says, with a blank expression on his face. 

slight :きゃしゃな

Existing camps, such as Nayapara and Kutupalong, the largest, have swelled to accommodate the new arrivals. Half a dozen new ones have also sprung up at the edges of paddy fields or on the outskirts of existing settlements (see map). They are often miserable places, with little access to clean water, health care or food. Refugees queue for hours to get rations. When it rains, the camps become mud-baths. Malnourished children stagger between tents; health workers talk of scabies and diarrhoea and warn of potential outbreaks of cholera. “Every third woman is pregnant,” says Harmeet Singh, a doctor with United Sikhs, an NGO. 

sprung up:〔ひょっこり〕現れる
paddy:水田, 稲田(paddy field, rice paddy).
stagger:The patient staggered to his feet. 患者はよろよろ立ち上がった.
scabies :疥癬(かいせん), 皮癬(ひぜん)〘寄生虫による感染力の強い皮膚病〙.

Part of the problem is geography, explains Rob Onus, the head emergency coordinator for Medecins Sans Frontieres, a medical charity which now has around 1,000 people working in southern Bangladesh. Unlike in Iraq or Syria, flat desert countries, it is hard to build a warehouse in southern Bangladesh: the best land has already been built on, and what little there is left is likely to be uneven, flood-prone or full of trees.

uneven:the uneven ground でこぼこした地面.

Once a warehouse is built, medical supplies or food from it have somehow to be transported to the camps themselves, which are mostly inaccessible by car. Aid workers must navigate muddy paths, wooden bridges and steep slopes. The sheer size of the camps presents problems too. Refugees who live near the road may be able to get treatment; those farther in may not only not get it, but not even know that it is there. 

get treatment:治療[処置]を受ける

Bangladeshi bureaucracy, which restricts what NGOs can and cannot do in the camps, does not help. Although it has been remarkably generous in allowing half a million people to cross its border, the government is sending “mixed signals” about how it intends to treat the refugees in the long run, says Chowdhury Abrar, a specialist in migration at Dhaka University. 

generous :寛大な

It appears committed to ensuring the Rohingyas go back to Myanmar. In early October the governments of Bangladesh and Myanmar ostensibly agreed to draw up a plan for repatriation, although they are unlikely to agree on the terms of it any time soon. But it has also talked of creating a “mega camp” in Kutupalong, where aid workers fear that disease would spread even more readily, or of shipping the Rohingyas off to a flood-prone island. 

ensuring:We are trying to ensure (that) many people find employment. 私たちは多くの人々が職を得ることを確実にしようとしているのだ
readily:come readily to mind すぐ思い浮かぶ.

Past precedent is worrying. Previous influxes of Rohingyas, in 1978 and then 1991, involved repatriation which some NGOs feared was forced rather than voluntary. Bangladesh abetted this by allowing conditions in the camps to deteriorate. According to a paper published in 1979 by Alan Lindquist, then head of the UN’s refugee arm in southern Bangladesh, “the objective of the Bangladesh Government from the beginning was that the refugees should go back to Burma [Myanmar] as quickly as possible, whatever they might feel about it.” In that instance, some 11,900 died in camps after the Rohingyas’ movement was restricted and food rations failed to arrive. Camps to house the internally displaced in Myanmar, which were meant to be temporary, have become permanent and squalid human sinkholes. 

abetted:aid and abet A A(の犯行)を(現場で)幇助する.

In Bangladesh, at least, things have improved. Refugees who have lived in the Nayapara camp since the 1990s say that in 2006, when the government allowed international NGOs to operate more freely, their lives improved dramatically. Many left the camps too: some to become Bangladeshi citizens or to travel to Saudi Arabia, Malaysia or Nepal with false documents. Some luckier ones were resettled as refugees in Britain, America and elsewhere. 

As well as catching the attention of the international media, the current crisis has also become an issue of domestic Bangladesh politics. Posters along the roadsides proclaim Sheikh Hasina, the prime minister, to be the “mother of humanity”, while others declare her to be the “hope” of the Rohingyas. Yet despite this the government still refuses to use the term “refugees”, points out Mr Abrar, preferring to call them “forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals”. 


Rohingyas in the camps complain that they cannot take formal work or attend local schools and universities. One teacher in Nayapara complains that the certificate refugee children get is useless outside the camp. Local Bangladeshis, meanwhile, complain about rising food prices and the spread of methamphetamines manufactured in Myanmar. 


Most Rohingyas want to go back to their homeland. They talk of the houses they lived in, the acres of land they owned, the shrimp farms they tended. Yet with that prospect seeming as elusive as ever, says Kim Jolliffe, a Myanmar-watcher in neighbouring Thailand, the parallel to their situation that most readily springs to mind is that of the Palestinians. That is not an encouraging analogy. 

tended:〈植物機械など〉を手入れする; 〈店家畜など〉の番をする



swingby_blog at 18:49コメント(0) 


中国の指導者習近平は新しい時代のスタートを宣言する。 それは古いもののような気もするが、それ以上のものだ。

China’s leader Xi Jinping declares the start of a “new era”
It sounds much like the old one—only more so
Oct 21st 2017 | BEIJING


IN THE days before the opening on October 18th of the Chinese Communist Party’s quinquennial congress, the country’s security officials put their surveillance efforts into overdrive. On Chang’an Avenue, the boulevard that passes by the venue in Tiananmen Square, naked flames were banned. Tough luck for restaurants, family dinners and smokers. Out-of-towners driving to the capital were stopped at checkpoints and made to sign papers promising not to get into trouble during the week of the congress. Foreigners were barred from travelling to Tibet. The region is well over 1,000 miles from the capital, but the party fears that even a lone banner-waving separatist sympathiser that far away could spoil the event in Beijing.

quinquennial :5年毎の
go into overdrive:熱心に仕事を始める, 集中して取り組む.

Such paranoia reflects the importance attached by the party to such congresses. They are convened to add a veneer of intraparty democracy to decisions made beforehand in secret, but those decisions are crucial. The congress, the 19th since the party’s founding in 1921, will revise the party’s constitution, reshuffle the leadership and set the tone for policymaking in the next five years. This one matters more than most: it is the first presided over by President Xi Jinping, who is the party’s chief and will undoubtedly remain so. 

a veneer of culture:うわべだけの教養.

The congress will consolidate Mr Xi’s already enormous power with the help of the largest turnover within the ruling elite since 1969, the height of the Cultural Revolution. About 70% of the nearly 400-strong Central Committee—the body from which the highest leaders are drawn—have reached retirement age or have been purged for corruption. “Electing” replacements (the more than 2,300 delegates at the Great Hall of the People will have few choices to play with) will result in yet more plum jobs for the party leader’s allies.

a plum job:(皆があこがれる)割りのいい仕事.

Mr Xi’s opening speech to the congress has been made out to be the product of consensus. During previous congresses, state media reported on the months-long process of drafting such documents, involving consultations with thousands of people. But this one, more than previous such speeches since Mao’s day, bore the personal stamp of the orator. 

bear the stamp of:〜の跡が滲み出ている、〜の極印がついている◆主語には苦労した事などが来る

Zero hour, Xi time
Mr Xi stuck to a formulaic style, repeating oft-used phraseology. But there were significant differences, such as in the unlovely title of one section: “Thoughts on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”. Deng Xiaoping coined the clunky term “socialism with Chinese characteristics” in the 1980s. Mr Xi’s contribution is the catchier bit, “new era”. 

formulaic :⦅かたく非難して⦆〈方法表現などが〉陳腐な, 月並みな.
oft-used word:《an 〜》よく使われる言葉
unlovely:⦅かたく⦆魅力的でない, みすぼらしい; 器量の悪い.
coin a term [word, phrase]:術語[語, 語句]を新造する.

China, he said, was at a “new historic juncture”. The coming era would see it “moving closer to centre stage and making greater contributions to mankind”. But achieving what he called the “Chinese dream”—another of his catchphrases—would be “no walk in the park”. He said it would “take more than drum-beating and gong-clanging to get there”. 

juncture:at this juncture 今ここで  a critical juncture 正念場.

Mr Xi talked in some detail about a “two-stage development plan” that will make China a “great modern socialist country” in the era between now and 2050. According to this, China will become a global leader in innovation by 2035, with “rule of law” in place and much greater “soft power” globally. In the 15 years after that, it will become “prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful”. (Mr Xi does not mean democratic in the normal sense: he gave no hint that there would be any erosion whatever of the party’s control.) 

It is clear that Mr Xi wants to be seen as the founder of this new era. He mentioned the term 36 times in his speech. Even if it is not entirely clear what the new era will entail, the phrase has a better chance of taking off than the now largely forgotten contributions made by Mr Xi’s two immediate predecessors to the party’s ideological lexicon: the “scientific outlook on development” of Hu Jintao, and the oddly named “Three Represents” of Jiang Zemin. 


Mr Xi described his new-era thoughts as “a compass for the party and people”. People’s Daily, the party’s main mouthpiece, hailed them as “the latest achievement in adapting Marxism to the Chinese context”. This implies that the term will be written into the party’s constitution during the congress. There is much speculation that Mr Xi’s name will be attached to it, making him the first leader since Deng to be named in the document.


Should the revised charter refer to “Xi Jinping Thought”, then Mr Xi will become an ideologue on a par with Mao. The party has a hierarchy of words describing systems of ideas, with “thought” (sixiang) nearly at the top, “theory” (lilun) in the middle and “view” or “perspective” (guan) at the bottom. Which word is used depends on how important the originator of the idea is considered to be. Mr Hu’s scientific development is a view. Even Deng’s Chinese characteristics are just a theory. Only Mao, so far, has achieved thought.

on a par with :と同格である

Messrs Hu and Jiang were sitting on either side of Mr Xi in the hall, applauding. But Mr Xi’s new-era idea clearly eclipses any musings of theirs. The words for new era, xin shidai, come first when joined together with Deng’s formulation.

musings:沈思, 瞑想(めいそう).
formulation:(方法計画などの)策定, 案出; 公式化, 体系化. (考えなどの)明確な表現.

Old whine in new waffle
Though Mr Xi talked about a new era, the next five years sound, from his speech, to be much like the past five—only more so. To loud applause, he declared that the momentum behind his anti-corruption campaign was unstoppable. He talked about “strengthening the party’s long-term governance capacity” (ie, involving it in more decisions) and boosting party organisations in companies, schools and villages. He stressed the need to “correct and resist various erroneous viewpoints”. It does not sound as if his persistent efforts to crush civil society will ease. 

waffle:ワッフル〘表面に格子模様がある厚手の焼き菓子で, 通例シロップをかけて食べる〙むだ口, 中身のない話; 駄文, 内容のない文章.
loud applause:大喝采

As he has done in the past, he sent mixed signals on the economy. He talked about ensuring the “market-based allocation” of resources and “business survival determined by competition”. He spoke in similar terms in 2013, a year after he came to power. This time he also promised to “support state capital in becoming stronger”, just as he has been doing since then. 

Perhaps most important, he suggested there would be no let-up in his more assertive foreign policy. In his speech to the previous congress in 2012, Mr Hu had said the army’s job was “to win a local war in an information age”. Mr Xi dropped the word local. He toughened up the language on Taiwan. Where Mr Hu had talked of opposing Taiwanese independence, Mr Xi threatened to destroy it. If he is under pressure to concentrate more on domestic matters, he has resisted it in his rhetoric. 

no sign of a let-up:衰える気配がないこと

Attention now will focus on the people Mr Xi will put in place at the end of the congress to help him lead China into the new era he envisages. But whereas, after previous congresses, observers tried to work out the balance between reformers and conservatives in the new line-ups that emerged, few will be wasting much effort on such calculations this time. The central message of this event will be that Mr Xi is in absolute command; the new era will be his. That is a risky assertion in a country where many are prospering but many feel left out. In effect, Mr Xi has assumed responsibility for the way the coming era turns out. 


習近平は中国共産党中央委員会第1回総会を終えて、「新時代の中国の特色ある社会主義思想」を打ち出したが、この「思想」は毛沢東なみの変革を意識している。2050年までにgreat modern socialist countryを構築するが、2035年までにはglobal leader in innovationになると言っている。今、中国は2025年に向けて、ICT革命を実行しているが、民主主義ではないので、実行のスピードがとてつもなく早いのと、国民性で物事の進め方が保守的でない。もうすでに、紙幣を使っていないし、スーパーの無人化も始まり、ホワイトカラーの劇的な削減、EV化が始まるだろう。彼が言っている将来のビジョンは確かに「思想」かもしれない。


swingby_blog at 19:47コメント(0) 


イランに対抗する鍵 アメリカの指導者はイランの野望を阻止するいかなる試みも最も強力である軍事組織IRGCの動きを止めることから始めなければならないということを知っている。

Oct 15, 2017 | 13:30 GMT Stratfor
The Key to Countering Iran
U.S. leaders know that any attempt to thwart Tehran's ambitions must start by restricting the movements of its most powerful military branch, the IRGC.(WSFURIAN/iStock)


counter the threat of inflation:インフレの脅威に対抗する

U.S. leaders know that any attempt to thwart Tehran's ambitions must start by restricting the movements of its most powerful military branch, the IRGC.

Political and economic pressure from the United States will unite Iran's fractious political system behind the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which lies at the heart of Tehran's regional strategy. Washington's recent addition of the IRGC to the Treasury Department's list of terrorist groups probably won't have a substantial impact on the organization's ability to fund itself and allied militant groups across the Middle East.


In response to the U.S. decision, Iran will boost its military and political support for the IRGC by expanding its budget for asymmetric operations, including the activities of the elite Quds Force and ballistic missile development.

asymmetric operation:不釣合いの軍事行動
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC):イスラム革命防衛隊
Quds Force:国外での特殊作戦のために、イラン・イラク戦争中に特殊部隊、ゴドス軍を創設した。兵力は5千人から1万5千人と推定されている。司令官はガーセム・ソレイマーニー将軍。任務は、イランが支援する各国のイスラム教シーア派系武装組織(ヒズボラ、ハマース、イラクのシーア派民兵等)に対する軍事訓練や活動の調整、敵国(イスラエル、アメリカ、イラク)に対する破壊工作、国外のイラン反体制派の排除である。

In a diplomatic dispute that seems to be growing more heated by the day, the United States has taken another swipe at Iran. On Oct. 13, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his decision to forgo the certification of Iran's nuclear deal with the West, just two days before the deadline, and to slap a new round of sanctions on a portion of the government in Tehran. As mandated by the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act of 2017, Trump also labeled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — one of Iran's most powerful military branches — a terrorist group. He stopped short, however, of listing the corps as a foreign terrorist organization, an option the White House was rumored to have considered earlier this year. 

by the day:日ごとに
take a swipe at A:Aを強打[非難]する
a small portion of the population:人口のほんの一部
stop short of:〜の寸前[手前]で止まる[やめる]、〜するまでには至らない

Though largely symbolic, the new label will draw considerable ire in Iran. Blowback could come from any number of the IRGC's units — the aerospace, naval and overseas operations divisions, to name a few — that the designation targets. And much to the United States' dismay, the move will likely backfire by uniting Iran's divided political factions behind the group now in its crosshairs. 

to name a few:2〜3例を挙げると
(much) to A's dismay:A〈人〉が(とても)がっかりした[うろたえた]ことには.
in the cross hairs:In a position in which other people are eager to criticize or attack.

The Cornerstone of Iran's Strategy
The White House has set its sights on the IRGC because of how indispensable the group has become to Iran's modern strategy in the Middle East. Under the monarchy that ruled Iran in the 1970s, the country boasted one of the strongest militaries in the region, equipped with advanced hardware it had purchased from its erstwhile ally, the United States. After the Islamic Revolution of 1979, however, then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini deeply distrusted the country's regular army because of its close relationship with the shah he had helped to depose. Eager to form a force loyal only to him, Khomeini established the IRGC, and the once-formidable army began to languish amid a lack of funding. Today its conventional weapons and tactics are weak relative to those of its Turkish and Saudi counterparts. 

set one's sights on:〜に照準を合わせる[狙いを定める]
Computers are indispensable tools for doing business.:コンピュータはビジネスを行うには欠かせない道具である.
boast about one's success [achievement]:成功[業績, 成績]を誇らしげに話す.
regular army:イラン・イスラム革命後、旧帝政への忠誠心が未だ残っていると革命政権側から疑念を抱かれた正規軍であるイラン・イスラム共和国軍への平衡力としてアーヤトッラー・ホメイニーの命令により、1979年5月5日にIRGCは創設された。正規軍とは別に独自の陸海空軍、情報部、特殊部隊(ゴドス軍)、弾道ミサイル部隊等を有し、戦時には最大百万人単位で大量動員できる民兵部隊「バスィージ」も管轄している。さらに多数の系列企業を持っている(建設・不動産や石油事業を営む複合企業ハタム・アルアンビアなど)。革命防衛隊は国防省ではなく革命防衛隊省の統制下にある。

Instead, Iran has built its security strategy around the asymmetric capabilities of the dominant IRGC, in part to avoid the type of overt conflict that would expose the country's vulnerabilities in conventional warfare. A critical component of this approach is Iran's support for militant groups across the region, including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Kataib Hezbollah — all of which the U.S. State Department has declared to be foreign terrorist organizations. The IRGC (and, in particular, its Quds Force unit) is the primary caretaker of these relationships, providing support and funding to proxies in exchange for action against Tehran's rivals. 

dominant :支配的な

Hamas and Hezbollah, for instance, are useful means of squeezing Israel from its southern and northern borders, respectively. In much the same way, Iran can lean on Yemen's Houthis and Bahrain's Al Ashtar Brigade to put pressure on Saudi Arabia. But perhaps most concerning to the United States is Iran's partnership with Iraq's Shiite militias, some of which Washington is currently working with. The United States fears that with nudging from Iran, these groups could start to target U.S. military personnel in Iraq. 

Other core parts of Iran's asymmetric strategy are the ballistic missile and space programs that the IRGC's aerospace force leads. Though Iran probably won't be able to deliver a warhead to the United States in the near future, it can use ballistic missiles — much like its proxies — to strike at or deter attacks from nearby rivals with better-equipped conventional forces. The IRGC's navy is also designed to conduct rapid attacks, missile attacks and mining operations in the Persian Gulf, which could easily disrupt global shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and take a heavy economic, physical and psychological toll on Tehran's enemies.

deter nuclear war:核戦争を抑止する.

Cyberspace has proved to be a theater in which Iran can thrive as well. The country is believed to have been behind the Shamoon cyberattacks that swept across the Arab Gulf states in 2012 before resurfacing in a modified form last year. Though the IRGC doesn't formally own Iran's cyberwarfare program, it controls many of the program's leadership functions. And in July, the IRGC arrested 23 officers for revealing evidence that the unit was responsible for several cyberattacks that hit Turkey in 2014-15. 

the Pacific theater of war:太平洋における戦域.
Shamoon cyberattacks:ディスクを消去する恐怖のマルウェア「Shamoon」が、サウジアラビアを標的に再び猛威をふるっている.

Clearly, the IRGC has a hand in many of Iran's covert activities throughout the Middle East, and the United States is determined to curb them all. By default, then, any comprehensive U.S. policy for countering Iran must restrict the movements of the IRGC in some form or fashion. 

almost by default:ほとんど当初の段階から

What's in a Name?
But assigning the label of "terrorist organization" is no trivial matter. According to U.S. law, there are two ways in which Washington can designate groups as terrorist organizations, each with its own implications. 

The first is using the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 to label a group a "foreign terrorist organization." It can be difficult to pursue since the term is narrowly defined as an entity that engages in terrorism or terrorist activities, or has the capability and intent to do so. The act is thus designed to target the culprits who are actually pursuing terrorist activities, rather than the individuals, companies or state actors providing them with material support. Because overseas proxy groups, rather than Iranian organizations such as the IRGC, carry out operations against Iran's rivals at its behest, the United States cannot easily dub the country's military branch a foreign terrorist organization. 

at A's behest:⦅かたく⦆Aの命(めい)により.

The second option is to designate entities as "terrorist groups" (or individuals as "supporters of terrorism") under Executive Order 13224, as Trump declared on Oct. 13 that he intended to do. Signed by former U.S. President George W. Bush in the wake of 9/11, the order is meant to broaden the legal basis for the pursuit of terrorist support networks. Not only are the groups in the first category routinely considered to be terrorist organizations under this ruling as well, but so are their financial backers. Iran has held a spot on this list since 1984 as a state sponsor of terrorism, and the executive order will continue to be the United States' most logical legal mechanism for targeting Iranian citizens and groups. 

hold the top leadership spot:トップの地位を維持する

From a practical standpoint, joining the ranks of Executive Order 13224's designees will do little to hamper the IRGC's activities. Because the United States has leveled punitive measures related to terrorism, human rights abuses and ballistic missile development against several of the group's members, associates and wings, the IRGC is already one of the most heavily sanctioned organizations in the world. Moreover, the unit's Quds Force has been on the executive order's "Specially Designated Nationals" list since 2007, which has frozen its U.S. assets and barred U.S. citizens and companies from interacting with it.


Ironically, a designation under the executive order deals a heavier financial blow than that of the foreign terrorist organization. But the latter label carries one critical advantage: criminal charges. Anyone, including non-U.S. citizens, who provides lodging, financial services or other aid to a foreign terrorist organization faces the possibility of prosecution in the United States. It's easy to imagine the economic and diplomatic problems that might arise if Washington were to add the IRGC to its list of foreign terrorist organizations. 

The employees of international firms doing business in Iran would have to tread carefully to avoid the threat of jail time, as would government officials receiving Iranian delegations traveling abroad, which often include members of the IRGC. Moreover, the United States has never designated a military unit of a sovereign state a foreign terrorist organization; should it break that pattern, other countries may follow its lead, perhaps even eventually treating prisoners of war as terrorists. Aware of these potential complications, the U.S. Defense Department and State Department have pressured the Trump administration not to rely on the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 to target the IRGC. 

tread carefully [cautiously, warily]:注意深くふるまう.

Of course, punishing the IRGC under the auspices of the executive order could have some influence over the group's capabilities. After all, the organization boasts an array of enterprises and shell companies that span the Iranian economy, and foreign firms will have to give extra due diligence to their operations in the country to ensure that they don't run afoul of Western sanctions. Nevertheless, Iran's foreign investment won't dry up, even if the IRGC becomes a less attractive partner for many international companies. 

under the auspices of A:Aの援助を得て; Aの後援[主催]で.
shell company:ペーパーカンパニー
run afoul of:巻き込まれる

The Iranian government, moreover, will replace any revenue streams that the IRGC loses access to. In fact, the group's funding may even increase, thanks to its central role in the nation's security strategy and to the empowerment of Iran's hard-liners, who will oppose any attempt by President Hassan Rouhani to erode the IRGC's political and economic clout. 

United Against the United States
Rouhani is not the IRGC's only domestic opponent, however. The group's pervasive power is a divisive issue in Iranian society, and the president has found the popular support needed to block some of its funds. That said, the IRGC's importance to the country's security hasn't generated the same amount of controversy. And as the United States has stepped up pressure on the IRGC over the past week, a rare display of unity has emerged between moderates like Rouhani and the conservative military group. That show of support will likely yield a boost in the IRGC's budget in the weeks ahead, just as Iranian lawmakers funneled $300 million to the Quds Force and the IRGC's ballistic missile program after the United States began ratcheting up tension earlier this year. 

yield a boost:上昇をもたらす

Still, it remains to be seen whether the IRGC's hard-line allies will be able take advantage of the political climate to boost their standing at home. In the last three elections, the country's hard-liners made a poor showing, and they remain in disarray today as they struggle to connect with the majority of Iranian youths. Perhaps it's no surprise that the camp has begun to pursue publicity stunts that were previously unheard of among conservatives, such as meetings with rappers and social media campaigns. The United States' renewed pressure against Iran may be the fuel they need to drive a rebranding of their image among voters. If so, Iran's hard-liners could make a comeback that enables them to block Rouhani's attempts to crack down on the IRGC's influence in Iranian politics. And if the United States is not careful, its effort to isolate the powerful military branch will only succeed in banding Iran's political factions together against it. 

in disarray:混乱状態で, 取り乱して
publicity stunt:売名行為、宣伝行為



swingby_blog at 22:35コメント(0) 



Oct 17, 2017 | 08:16 GMT Stratfor
America the Beautiful, but Divided
By Rebecca Keller
Senior Science and Technology Analyst, Stratfor


America the Beautiful, but Divided

Senior Science and Technology Analyst, Stratfor
Rebecca Keller
Senior Science and Technology Analyst, Stratfor
States like California hold political stances that are much different than those of Trump's constituents in the American Midwest, particularly on matters related to the environment, energy, immigration and the tech sector.

For nearly a year the world has worked to adapt to recent changes, both real and perceived, in U.S. foreign policy. But as the globe responds to the new priorities of its only superpower, Americans themselves remain divided over how best to engage with their surroundings. 


Much like the members of the European Union, each of America's states has its own needs to fulfill. Technological progress has given some states an edge in pursuing their goals, but it has also left behind regions that were once among the most prominent forces in U.S. politics — including the country's flourishing breadbasket, the American Midwest. And as the socio-economic gap between different parts of the country has widened, so have their policy preferences. 

By design, political discourse and debate are woven into the very fabric of American governance. But rarely do rifts among states spill into foreign policy and global issues in a substantial way. That may not be the case for much longer, however, as U.S. President Donald Trump's populist appeals attract strong allies — and even stronger opponents — to the White House. 

for much longer:それほど長い間の

Scraping Off the Rust of the Midwestern Belt
History is littered with examples of periods when "national values" meant something different to every U.S. citizen. The electoral cycle acts as a rough gauge of the extent of these differences, swinging the pendulum of partisanship back and forth along the political spectrum with each vote. The magnitude of this arc tends to broadly coincide with the level of discord in the country at any given point in time. During the moments of deepest division, states dominated by the minority party often try to use the degree of self-determination that the U.S. Constitution grants them to seek even greater autonomy. 

The world is littered with fakes.:世界は偽物であふれている.
rough gauge:概算計測
the swing of the pendulum:振り子の揺れ; 世論の動き.
self-determination:民族自決(権)〘民族国民が自己の政治形態を自ら選択し決定する権利〙.自己決定, 自決.

Until now such moments — at least those triggered by economic issues — have been largely absent from U.S. history since the end of World War II. Throughout much of the 20th century, the U.S. steel industry's heyday, states with long traditions of manufacturing such as Ohio, Indiana and Michigan thrived. The booming region, coupled with the prosperous agricultural corridor that rests along the Greater Mississippi River Basin, fueled the United States' rapid ascent among the ranks of the world's nations. 

rain coupled with a strong wind:強い風を伴った雨

But on the eve of the 21st century, the success of these steel giants began to wane amid the rise of container shipping, industrial automation and globalization. Factories closed and production stalled across the region now known as the Rust Belt, which had lost the competitive advantage afforded by the Industrial Revolution to the technological revolution sweeping throughout the globe. A crisis of the American middle class followed, rallying support for federal policies that promised to turn back the clock to better times. The voices of those who felt forgotten by the administration of former President Barack Obama, which prized globalization and multilateral trade deals, grew louder and louder. Last year, their collective strength pulled the political pendulum back toward them with the election of a candidate who vowed to put their needs first.

opportunity afforded by:〜によって生じた機会
rallying:集まる 回復する

California Takes Up the Banner of Autonomy
This reversal of fortunes did not sit well with California, the country's most populous state. Unlike its Midwestern peers, California didn't hit its economic stride until the end of the 20th century. Prior to the advent of container shipping, it had no means of tapping into the economies of scale in manufacturing that allowed states along the Great Lakes and Mississippi River to flourish. So when American industry began to decline in the 1970s, California emerged relatively unscathed, eventually becoming the world's sixth-largest economy and a leading tech hub. Now home to some 10 million immigrants and a culture that embraces innovation, California's political stances are much different than those of Trump's constituents in the American Midwest, particularly on matters related to the environment, energy, immigration and the tech sector. 

Takes Up:〈申し出挑戦機会など〉を受け入れる
stunning reversal of fortune:《a 〜》驚くべき運命の逆転
sit well with :〖通例否定文で〗〈状況計画などが〉〈人〉の気に入る, Aにしっくりくる.

California and its governor, Jerry Brown, have led the charge to advance climate change policy under the Trump administration. After the president announced his intention to abandon the Paris Agreement on climate change, Brown — along with a handful of other state leaders, cities and corporations — pledged to maintain his state's participation in the deal by creating cooperative partnerships and enacting or enforcing state laws in line with the accord's goals. Not long after the announcement, the governor traveled to China to attend a clean energy forum and hash out plans for informal collaboration between California and Beijing on green energy and environmental protection. 

hash out :〈問題困難など〉をじっくり話して解決する.

Meanwhile, states like California have gone head-to-head with White House over the tabling of another Obama-era initiative on the environment: the Clean Power Plan. Scott Pruitt, the chief of the Environmental Protection Agency, announced on Oct. 9 that he had officially begun the process of repealing the bill, which has been stalled in court battles with numerous red states since its passage. Ironically, blue states will likely use the same tactics to block the progress of any replacement regulation that Republican lawmakers propose. Either way, the economic and technological considerations that inform states' decisions on utilities, power generation and energy use will gradually push them to adopt policies that are in line with both the Paris accord and the Clean Power Plan, regardless of the United States' formal participation in them. 

red state:レッド・ステイト◆共和党支持者の多い州◆【参考】purple state ; blue state

Legal disputes between state and country haven't been confined to environmental issues, either. Over the past year, immigration has proved a serious point of contention between the White House and a handful of states, including California. (Perhaps this is unsurprising, since nearly a third of California's residents were born on foreign soil.) Wielding the power of the executive order, Trump has placed travel restrictions on citizens of nine different countries while bolstering the enforcement of immigration laws, resulting in an uptick in arrests this year. 

This problem isn't confined to the young.:この問題は若者に限ったことではない
uptick:a small increase.

At the same time, disruptions to visa programs and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy have led to an outcry from the tech and business communities. Should the visas that enable these sectors to recruit the world's best and brightest remain uncertain inroads into the country, the innovative tech sector may dig its heels in deeper against the president's immigration policies. 

Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals:若年移民に対する国外強制退去の延期措置
inroads:進出, 参入, 食い込み.

California has already taken its protection of migrants a step further, declaring its status as a sanctuary state in early October. The move will limit the extent to which Californian officials, by law, must cooperate with federal immigration enforcement officers. The Trump administration has threatened to withhold all federal funds from such sanctuaries, though some commentators have argued that doing so would be tantamount to coercion by the federal government (and therefore would not be permitted). The final verdict will likely rest with the country's nine Supreme Court justices. 

provide sanctuary for A:A〈難民など〉を保護する, かくまう
tantamount:〈行為計画などが〉Aにも等しい, Aも同然である
verdict :評決

A Flaw in the White House's Foundation
Though immigration and environmental issues have certainly grabbed the most headlines, Trump's trade policies have best exposed the competing interests that have long driven a wedge between rural and urban states. At first glance, one might expect states that are heavily reliant on foreign trade to balk at the protectionist rhetoric, renegotiations and punitive economic measures that have characterized the first 10 months of Trump's presidency. But many of the states whose exports and imports make up the largest share of their gross domestic product are also the onetime manufacturing behemoths of the American heartland, such as Michigan, Tennessee, Kentucky and Louisiana, that steered Trump from the campaign trail to the Oval Office. 

drive a wedge:【二者間の】関係を悪化させる, 仲を裂く ≪between≫ .
punitive damages:〘法〙懲罰的損害賠償(金).
behemoths:巨大で強力なもの. ビヒモス〘聖書ヨブ記に出てくるカバと思われる巨獣〙
steer the boat toward [into] the harbor:船を港へ向ける[入港させる].

Trade is thus the issue that could cause cracks to form in the White House's support base. By default, the president's constituents — some of whom favor free trade, while others prefer protectionism — will be impossible to fully please. But more to the point, no amount of negotiation over the trade policies of China, South Korea, Canada and Mexico will reverse the technological progress that has weakened the American middle class and manufacturing sector. And if, after four years, Trump's allies are unsatisfied with the results of his tenure, they may shift their support to another party yet again. 

almost by default:ほとんど当初の段階から
no amount of:最大限の〜ですら…ない
yet again:さらにもう一度

As the United States' policies toward North Korea, Afghanistan and Syria have made clear, geopolitics imposes formidable constraints on the actions of even the most powerful of nations. But at times, the pull of domestic forces against the current of national policy can also temper decision-making across all levels of government. And for the first time, the degree of divisiveness over the global issues now at the center of the U.S. political debate threatens to have consequences that reach far beyond America's borders. 

formidable reputation:すばらしい評判.
The heat was tempered by a breeze.:そよ風で暑さが和らいだ.

Rebecca Keller focuses on areas where science and technology intersect with geopolitics. This diverse area of responsibility includes changes in agricultural technology and water supplies that affect global food supplies, nanotechnology and other developments. 



swingby_blog at 22:41コメント(0) 

イラクの新たな戦争。シーア派アラブ人とクルド人とで。 イラクの指導者たちはクルド人からその都市と油田を取り戻す行動を起こした。

A new war in Iraq, now between Shia Arabs and Kurds
Iraqi leaders act to retake the city and its oilfields from the Kurds
Oct 16th 2017 | KIRKUK


WITH its rich reserves of oil and multitude of ethnicities and religions, the city of Kirkuk was always contested. The jihadist takeover of much of northern and western Iraq in 2014 allowed the Kurds both to take over the disputed city, and pose as defenders of Iraqi freedom. Now that Islamic State (IS) is being defeated, the old disputes over who controls the city have reignited. 


In the early hours of October 16th, Iraqi government forces advanced on the city, taking over the oilfields, the biggest military base outside the city, and then the governorate building in the centre. Oil production was briefly shut down. Thousands of civilians are fleeing the city and surrounding province, choking the Kurdish checkpoints on the roads into the mountainous north. So far the casualties have been relatively light. Most Peshmerga fighters withdrew without much of a fight. But some Kurds in the city have responded to calls from their leaders to take up arms in Kirkuk’s defence. 

The drain was choked with mud.:排水溝は泥で詰まっていた.

Several factors are inflaming tensions. The first was a referendum on Kurdish independence last month. It had been called by the regional government’s president, Masoud Barzani, against the advice of many officials. Iraq’s prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, has vowed to prevent secession and halted international flights into Kurdish cities. Rival Kurdish factions are openly accusing each other of betraying Kirkuk. 


Mr Abadi, sounding uncharacteristically belligerent, says the referendum will cost the Kurds “everything” they have gained since establishing an autonomous government in 1991. The loss of Kirkuk’s oilfields would certainly cost the Kurdish regional government its prime source of revenue at a time when it is already struggling to finance its rule. 


Trade routes into the landlocked region have been severely impaired after Iran closed their common border. And Kurdish business interests elsewhere in Iraq have come under attack. Last week, gunmen attacked a regional office of Korek Telecom, a mobile-phone network run by Mr Barzani’s nephew, disabling its coverage in southern Iraq. 

Hard work impaired his sight.:彼は働きすぎて視力を害した.

A second cause of conflict is the mounting tension between America and Iran. American diplomats are shuttling between Erbil and Baghdad, urging Messrs Abadi and Barzani, both of whom they consider allies, to restrain their forces. But America’s president, Donald Trump, risks undermining their efforts. On October 13th Mr Trump spoke out against Iran and vowed to curb its influence in the region. 

He denounced the nuclear deal struck with Iran (and five other global powers) by his predecessor, Barack Obama, to lift certain sanctions on Iran in exchange for it curbing its nuclear programme and submitting it to tighter international scrutiny. Mr Trump also threatened to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the country’s praetorian guard, as a terrorist organisation. 

praetorian guard :〘史〙ローマ皇帝の護衛, 近衛兵; (一般に権力者政権などの)近衛団.

The IRGC has responded to his bombast with force. Ahead of the Kirkuk offensive, General Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Quds Force, the IRGC’s foreign-operations arm, arrived in Iraq. Two armed groups closely linked to Iran—the Popular Mobilisation Units (or Hashd al-Shaabi) and the Federal Police—led the assault. 

bombast:⦅非難して⦆大言壮語, 大げさな言葉.

Across the border in Syria, Iran’s allies are also advancing, rubbing close to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which are backed by America. On October 14th, Syrian forces took al-Mayadin, another town on the Euphrates, from Islamic State. Across the region, General Suleimani is demonstrating that while Mr Trump talks, Iran speedily acts. 

General Suleimani:ガーセム・ソレイマーニーは、イラン・イスラム革命防衛隊の一部門で、イラン国外で特殊作戦に従事するゴドス部隊の司令官。少将。ケルマーン州ラーバル郡出身。 ソレイマーニーは米国のテロ関係者リストに記載されており、米国民は同氏との経済活動を禁じられている。

Underlying these local fights is a broader scramble for vast swathes of the Fertile Crescent from which IS has retreated. Local militias and regional powers are racing to create facts on the ground. Raqqa, the capital of IS in Syria, is about to fall to American-backed Syrian rebels. But the Syrian government, and its Iranian and Shia allies, seem likely to win the race for control of Syria’s borders. Some still look for an agreed way forward. Last week Mr Abadi suggested establishing a joint administration in Kirkuk, involving Iraqi government and Kurdish officials. But as erstwhile allies in the struggle against IS turn their guns on each other, calls for negotiations look worryingly late. 


クルド人が国民投票をして、独立を検討したことから、イラクとの関係が悪化し、イラクがキルクークに軍隊を進めることになった。折角保有していた自治権をクルド人は放棄することになった。大統領のMasoud Barzaniの責任だ。結局、イラクのアバディ首相がキルクークを占領する指示を出した。イランはイラクを支持している。アメリカはクルドを支持してきたが、今回はイランを非難はしても、クルドの独立には賛成していない。中東の利権の混乱は当面続きそうだ。


swingby_blog at 08:01コメント(0) 


金持ちへの課税 IMFはJeremy Corbynの案をあまり同意はしない。かなり、微妙な違いがあるからだ。

Taxing the rich
An IMF report does not really support Jeremy Corbyn's plans; it is more nuanced
Oct 12th 2017by Buttonwood

IMFはJeremy Corbynの案をあまり同意はしない。かなり、微妙な違いがあるからだ。

FOR once, the Daily Mail and the Guardian, British newspapers of the right and left, agree. In the former, Alex Brummer says “IMF's new line of thinking of tax should please Corbyn & co” while the latter says that the IMF “analysis supports tax strategy of Labour in UK”. Both are responding to the IMF's fiscal monitor which does indeed say that there would appear to be scope for increasing the progressivity of income taxation without significantly hurting growth for countries wishing to enhance income redistribution. 

For once I agreed with my mother.:私は1度だけ母親と意見が一致した
I'm trying to please everyone.:みんなを喜ばせようと努力している

The report details how income tax progressivity in advanced economies declined in the 1980s and 1990s and that the tax system has done little to reduce inequality in recent years 

Between 1985 and 1995, rising fiscal redistribution was able to offset about 60 percent of the increase in market income inequality. In contrast, average fiscal redistribution hardly changed between 1995 and 2010, while market income inequality continued to increase. As a result, average disposable income inequality increased broadly in line with market income inequality

But the report is about the west as a whole, rather than Britain in particular. When it comes to a specific tax rate, it says that 

Assuming a welfare weight of zero for the very rich, the optimal marginal income tax rate can be calculated as 44 percent 

and compares this with the average top tax income tax band in the OECD of 35%. So there is scope for many countries to raise income taxes rather than attempt (as is suggested in America) to cut them. 

a suicide attempt ≒an attempt at suicide:自殺未遂.

In Britain, however, the top tax rate is already 45%, almost exactly at the optimal level. Mr Corbyn and the Labour party want to increase this to 50% which the IMF report implies is sub-optimal. So not really support for Mr Corbyn at all. The recommendations are really aimed at other countries. 


When it comes to corporate tax, the IMF points out that tax levels can affect the return from income taxes. Richer people can decide to incorporate to avoid paying high marginal rates of tax. That might seem to support higher corporate tax rates. But the problem is that corporations are rather more mobile than people. 


Taxation influences the location of firms. Savings can be invested in foreign locations with lower tax rates, making it harder for home countries to enforce taxes. 

Labour plans to push up the rate of corporate tax to 26% when it takes office. But this is going against the trend. 

In recent decades, international tax competition—resulting from capital mobility—has led to a steady downward trend in corporate income tax rates. This trend reduces overall tax progressivity and may also put downward pressure on PIT (personal income tax) rates. International tax coordination could potentially address this problem but has proved very difficult to implement. 

Without this international co-operation, the risk is that Labour drives some businesses away at a time when, thanks to Brexit, the country will want to keep itself as attractive to international companies as possible. So the IMF doesn’t really back Corbyn in this area either. 

金持ちに対してイギリスの次期首相と目されているJeremy Corbynは所得税率をあげようとしている。ところがこうした金持ちは所得税を避けるために、企業にその利益を転嫁している。企業の税率をあげてしまうと、今度は企業が海外に逃げてしまう。だから、IMFはそうした意見に賛成できない。金持ちへの課税はそう簡単ではない。企業が国外に逃げてしまったら、課税しようがないからだ。


swingby_blog at 21:50コメント(0) 
livedoor プロフィール

海野 恵一



Swingby 最新イベント情報
海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby

Recent Comments
  • 今日:
  • 累計:


社長ブログ ブログランキングへ