2017年07月03日

トランプのパリ協定からの脱退はアメリカにとって何を意味するのか。 カリフォルニアは排気ガス削減を決意してきたが、大統領は化石燃料の消費に拍車をかけようとしている。(2)

Climate lawyers were also left puzzled on Thursday. Mr Trump appeared to be making a “de facto withdrawal”, said Sue Biniaz, a former legal adviser in the State Department who worked on UN climate negotiations for nearly 30 years and helped draft the Paris Agreement. She added: “He is leaving the door ajar to re-enter.” 

ajar:ドアが少し開いて

Dan Bodansky, another legal expert on the Paris agreement, said: “So long as [the US] is a party, it has an obligation under international law to perform the agreement in good faith.” 

party:当事者
in good faith:誠意を持って

In a letter to the president in April congressman Kevin Cramer, a former Trump adviser, highlighted several other changes he said the US could push for, including tying emissions targets to a range of economic scenarios and boosting support for new fossil fuel technology. 

Can Mr Trump spur faster growth in US fossil fuel industries?
Activity and employment in the US fossil fuel industries have generally been driven more by market conditions than by government policy. Oil drilling started to pick up a year ago, long before Mr Trump was elected, because of the recovery in crude prices. Coal production also started to pick up before the election, as higher natural gas prices made coal-fired power generation more competitive, but that boost appears now to be levelling off. 

pick up:好転する
levelling off:伸びが止まる

The administration’s moves to cut regulations and open new areas up for production will have some effect, but market conditions are likely to continue to dominate. Coal will stay under pressure because of competition from North America’s abundant reserves of low-cost gas, and oil companies will be reluctant to drill in the Arctic unless crude prices are significantly higher. 

Arctic:北極の



Will states including California be able to keep pursuing their own climate policies if Trump withdraws? Yes. There are 29 states that already have mandates for the use of renewable electricity, and many have tax breaks and other supports for technologies to cut emissions. California will be crucial. It is the world’s sixth-largest economy and has set a target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent from 1990 levels by 2030.

It already has a large emissions trading scheme and state lawmakers are debating whether to extend it beyond 2020. Nine states in the north-east US are part of a regional system of trading greenhouse gas emissions permits. One issue to watch will be whether the Trump administration tries to take on any of the states to block their climate policies. Mr Pruitt and Rick Perry, the energy secretary, have hinted that they are considering such moves. 

emissions permits:排出量取引

パリ協定をアメリカが止めると言ったが、カリフォルニアをはじめ29の州がパリ協定を推進しようとしている。アメリカ北東部の9の州ではグリーンハウスガスの排出量取引を法制化している。トランプがこうした国内の動きを規制しようという動きもあるが、一方で、アメリカがパリ協定に戻れるような受け側の体制もあるようだ。

そもそもパリ協定からの脱退が石油炭鉱労働者の保護というのが狙いだとすれば本末転倒だ。アメリカの製造業を取り戻そうとメキシコの工場に課税しようとしたのと論理は一緒で幼稚だ。話にならない。一国の大統領が無知だと、とんでもないことが起こってしまう。権限が大きいからだ。

火曜日。ではまた明日。


swingby_blog at 21:22コメント(0) 

2017年07月02日

トランプのパリ協定からの脱退はアメリカにとって何を意味するのか。 カリフォルニアは排気ガス削減を決意してきたが、大統領は化石燃料の消費に拍車をかけようとしている。

What a Trump exit from the Paris deal means for the US
California has resolved to cut emissions but president wants to spur fossil fuel growth
JUNE 2, 2017 by: Pilita Clark, Ed Crooks and Barney Jopson

トランプのパリ協定からの脱退はアメリカにとって何を意味するのか。
カリフォルニアは排気ガス削減を決意してきたが、大統領は化石燃料の消費に拍車をかけようとしている。



Donald Trump has announced that the US will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement that almost every country in the world adopted in December 2015. But there is still widespread disagreement about precisely how exiting the accord would affect the US. 

What does the Paris agreement require the US to do? 
The main obligation for all countries that have joined the Paris agreement is to submit a plan every five years on how they intend to deal with climate change. 

Countries have already come up with their initial plans and the US blueprint that the Obama administration submitted has a goal to cut the country’s climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2025 from what levels were in 2005. 

The accord also requires rich countries to provide financing for developing countries in line with their existing obligations under the parent treaty of the Paris accord, the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. 

There is no strict timeline for when money needs to be handed over and experts say the US has already met this requirement because after it joined the Paris agreement, the Obama administration put $500m into a green climate fund set up to channel funds to poorer nations. 

How are the US emissions targets supposed to be met?
The US plan envisions a range of measures to help meet its Paris goals, including new fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles and measures to curb emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from landfills and the oil and gas industry. 

landfills:ゴミ埋立地

Energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances were also included. However, most of the cuts were supposed to come from Mr Obama’s clean power plan to lower emissions from power plants burning fossil fuels. The plan was already the subject of legal challenges and Mr Trump has moved to unravel it since he took office in January. 

appliances:家庭用の機器
unravel:計画を反故にする

The policies Mr Obama announced were not expected to amount to enough to meet the 2025 emissions goal in his Paris plan, meaning new measures probably would have had to have been introduced to fill the gap. 



What happens if the US fails to meet its Paris goals?
There is no legal requirement for any country with emissions targets such as those in the US plan to meet its goals. Blueprints submitted for the Paris agreement can also be weakened, though this breaches the spirit of the accord, which encourages any revised plans to be stronger not weaker. 

Republican opponents of the Paris agreement in the US Senate have argued the deal could expose the Trump administration to more legal challenges as it tries to abandon the clean power plan to cut emissions from electricity generation. 

Few lawyers share this view but Scott Pruitt, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency and one of the strongest advocates of quitting the accord, is said to have used warnings about legal risk to help bring Mr Trump round to his position. 

bring around:説得して意見を変えさせる

What would be the financial and economic impact of leaving the Paris accord?
There will be little immediate impact, because the accord has no direct effect in the US. But businesses in renewable energy and other industries involved with curbing emissions worry that the signal sent by the estrangement of the US from the rest of the world on climate strategy will deter investment and hurt sales. 

estrangement:仲違い

One of the biggest risks will be the threat of possible retaliatory tariffs imposed by countries that believe they are being forced to bear an unfair share of the burden of tackling a global problem. 

How could the agreement be renegotiated?
Mr Trump’s suggestion the accord could be renegotiated provoked some bafflement as it is a voluntary deal that includes no enforcement mechanism. “It’s a sham. There is no process for it. He’s laid out no criteria,” said David Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group. 

bafflement:困惑
sham:見せかけ
criteria:基準

Some suggested Mr Trump could tell China and India he would stay in the deal if they increased their emissions cuts while he scaled back the US’s own targets. But Mr Doniger said: “Why would China bargain with the US? It’s bargaining in bad faith by the United States.” 

bargain :交渉する
bad faith:不誠実

Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate official who helped seal the Paris deal, said: “I have a hard time imagining how any country would be willing to let the United States off the hook.” 

seal:決定する
let the United States off the hook:大目に見てやる

トランプがパリ協定を脱退することによって、一体どのような問題があるのかを議論している。さしあたっては特に何も起こらないのだが、他の国が環境対策をしていて、アメリカがそうしないということが許されるのだろうかということだ。オバマが今まで対策してきたものをトランプはやめようとしている。電力産業における排出ガス削減を緩和しようとしている。アメリカにとって対外貿易が不利になってしまうのではないだろうか。

月曜日。朝会がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:16コメント(0) 

2017年07月01日

日本の秘密兵器 本間のゴルフドライバー

NORTHEAST ASIA
Japan’s Secret Weapon – The Honma golf driver
Grant Newsham By GRANT NEWSHAM JUNE 26, 2017 

日本の秘密兵器 本間のゴルフドライバー

Japan’s officialdom was astonished when Donald Trump was elected.
It was also terrified he’d live up to campaign promises and demand Tokyo pay more for US forces based in Japan, and might even pick a fight over supposed unfair trade practices. Hence, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe rushed to New York to meet the president-elect at Trump Tower, bringing flattery and a $3,700 Honma Beres 05 S Series golf driver as gifts. Abe followed up a few months later with a visit that included golf at Mar-a-Lago.

officialdom:官僚
flattery:ゴマすり

By all accounts Trump and Abe struck up a good relationship — much to Japanese relief. Visits to Japan by Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson further smoothed things over – though both men said they expected more from Japan. Beyond this, little has been heard from the Americans about Japan improving its defense capability and providing some needed combat power to bolster US forces. 

By all accounts:誰に聞いても
struck:開始した
Beyond:これ以外に

Now, something curious has happened: Tokyo officials and politicians privately gloating over Japan having tamed Trump and gotten the Japan-US defense relationship back on track — to wit, Japan doing only what it feels like doing. To be sure, Japan is offering the prospect of buying a land-based Aegis anti-missile system, which will keep a few US defense contractors happy and lobbying the Trump Administration not to upset Tokyo. 

gloating:ほくそ笑む
tamed:飼いならす
to wit:すなわち
To be sure:なるほど

Japan sending the JS Izumo destroyer vessel to “escort” a US Navy supply ship heading towards Korea recently and conducting naval diplomacy in Southeast Asia are helpful, but in the grand scheme of things matter little. 


The Japanese government intends to deploy its helicopter carrier Izumo to the South China Sea in May to signal the Chinese government that freedom of navigation in the contested region will not be disrupted. Tensions between Beijing, Tokyo and Washington are increasing over China's island-building activities in the sea. Photo: Wikipedia.
Photo: Wikipedia. Japan destroyer and helicopter carrier Izumo. 

The Japanese government intends to deploy its helicopter carrier Izumo to the South China Sea in May to signal the Chinese government that freedom of navigation in the contested region will not be disrupted. Tensions between Beijing, Tokyo and Washington are increasing over China's island-building activities in the sea. 

disrupted:混乱させる

When he asks about plans to increase Japan’s defense spending, he’ll hear — as have his predecessors — that the world’s third largest economy has a “case of the shorts” when it comes to the extra $5 billion needed for defense annually over the next five years. 

case of the shorts:資金難

Perhaps if he wanted to know about the integration of the Japanese Self Defense Forces (JSDF), he could ask to see the radio with which the Ground Self-Defence Force, the Maritime Self-Defence Force and the Air Self-Defence Force can talk to each other? 

And then request a visit to the Alliance Coordination Mechanism (ACM) mentioned in the revised US-Japan Defense Guidelines in 2015? The Ambassador might be forgiven for thinking the ACM is a place where Japanese and US military personnel operate side-by-side, 24-hours a day, coordinating and directing exercises and patrols, and drafting operational plans and strategies. 

Alliance Coordination Mechanism:同盟調整メカニズムは、米軍、国務省、日本の統幕、防衛省や外務省、内閣官房や国家安全保障事務局などの関係省庁を含む日本政府の代表との間の協議と調整のための永続的なフォーラムとして機能するように2015年の新ガイドラインによって設置された。
forgiven:するのは無理もない

However, the ACM as a place doesn’t exist and doesn’t seem to be in the works. There’s still little more to the ACM than a promise to talk if something happens. In other words, the plan is to wing it. If Japan wants to demonstrate its seriousness about transforming the JSDF into a useful force, it should create a Joint Task Force (JTF) geared to defend Japan’s southern islands. 

as a place:場所として
wing:準備無しでぶっつけ本番で行う
geared:歯車が噛み合う

This is where China is throwing its weight around and according to some analysts preparing to seize Japanese territory when the time is right. The JTF combining Air, Sea, and Ground operations under a single command will have a function of forcing JSDF services to cooperate at long last. 

at long last:やっとのことで

Further, installing the JTF at Camp Courtney on Okinawa adjacent to III Marine Expeditionary Force Headquarters would be operationally and politically useful — forging a more equal relationship between Japanese and American forces and belying the image of US forces as “occupiers.” 

belying:が偽りであることを示す

But it’s striking how little urgency Japan shows on these issues, given Beijing’s impressive strides and increasing Chinese pressure. A former US official once commented, “the Japanese will always figure out what is the minimum amount of effort the US will tolerate and then do a little bit less than that.” 

striking:顕著な
strides:進歩
figure:考えている

Indeed, it often seems Japan’s defense strategy is to do just enough to keep the Americans on the hook to do most of the hard work (and more than a little dying) to defend Japan. This defense relationship desperately needs some balance after decades of excessive dependence on the United States. 

hook:困難な立場に置かれて
dying:死にかけている
desperately:必死になって

This imbalance has created a misshapen JSDF unable to address current and developing threats, or to be of much use to US forces except in niche roles of submarine and anti-submarine warfare and air defense. Considerable roles, perhaps, but still niche roles. Abe has said he wants to remedy this situation, but Japanese policymakers appear to be going in the opposite direction now that Trump has been quieted by flattery. 

misshapen:不格好な
quieted:なだめる

Upgrading the JSDF and building useful, practical links with US forces would cost a little money and require some effort. And Abe would need to spend political capital to force Japan’s political and bureaucratic worlds to go along – while winning over the broader public. Instead, Japan appears to have decided splurging on a golf club for Trump is easier. 

splurging:散財する

Grant Newsham is a senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies and a retired US Marine Officer. 

この記事は友人のCarl Petersonからのものだが、的を得ている。日本軍は陸海空と連携していない。予算も昔からの政治的な合意で、予算を抑えてきている。米軍との連携も実戦的ではない。この記事を書いた人は多少の努力でもっとましになると書いているが、そうはならない。陸海空がバラバラなのは戦前からだ。米軍との共同作戦はそもそも日本人が外国人と一緒に行動するという習慣がないところに問題の根源がある。だから、これ以上の日米との連携はできない。そもそも自衛隊は英語ができない。どうしたら良いかは根本的な教育から始めなおさねばならない。そこのところをアメリカ人は理解していない。

日曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:40コメント(0) 

2017年06月30日

James MattisはDonald Trumpに関してアジアの同盟国に安心させようとしている。 Shangri-La Dialogueで彼は誰からもうらやまれない立場に置かれた。

There was something almost heartbreaking about the questions posed by the audience to the defence secretary, a lean man with a craggy face, the cropped silver hair of a Marine, and a laconic speaking-style. An Australian delegate noted Mr Trump’s dismissive comments about NATO, and his withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a big trade pact, and from the Paris climate accord. Should the region worry that it is seeing the “destruction of the rules-based order”, the Australian asked. A member of the Japanese parliament wondered aloud whether America still shares “common values” with its allies, or just security interests. 

heartbreaking:つらい
lean:スリムな
craggy:大きくて彫りの深い
cropped:短く刈った
laconic:無口な
dismissive:もうようなないと言わんばかりの
aloud:人が聞き取れるように声を出して

This being a blog rather than a newspaper article, readers may indulge the author for quoting Mr Mattis’s replies at some length. The defence secretary is not a dissident within the Trump administration. He is a loyal servant of a democratically elected president. But in his defence of the post-war order, he was trying to tell his Asian audience that some principles and instincts are so deeply rooted in the American spirit that they can survive the swings and counter-swings of electoral politics. 

at some length:相当詳しく
instincts:本能
swings:弧を描くように素早く向きを変えること
counter-:反対の

This, then, is my transcript of Mr Mattis’s unscripted remarks, replying to those questions about the rules-based order. Hear, here, an old-fashioned public servant wrestling with the duty of serving a very different sort of president, but one who won an election promising an “America First” foreign policy. 

Mr Mattis said: “Obviously, we have a new President in Washington, DC, we’re all aware of that, and there’s going to be fresh approaches taken.” But look at Mr Trump’s first foreign trip to the Middle East, he went on, and the president’s call on Arab allies and international organisations to work together on countering terrorism and bringing stability to the Middle East. Later in his reply, he argued that Mr Trump had visited Brussels to demonstrate that he stands by NATO allies “100%”. He further noted that Mr Trump had sent him to Tokyo and to Seoul on his first foreign trip as defence secretary, to make clear America’s commitment to its allies in Asia. 

The middle passage of his reply was the interesting part. He said: “I think we have been engaging the world for a long time. Historically, the Americans have been reluctant to see themselves in that role. We were quite happy keeping between our two oceans, we were happy to stay there, but the 20th century took us out of that. At the same time we recognised, especially the Greatest Generation we called them, coming home from world war two, what a crummy world if we all retreat inside our own borders. How many people deprived of good lives during the Depression, how many tens of millions of people killed in world war two? Like it or not, we are part of the world. That carries through, for all of the frustrations that are felt in America right now with the sense that at times we have carried an inordinate burden. And that is still very deeply rooted in the American psyche, that engagement with the world. To quote a British observer of us from some years ago: bear with us, once we have exhausted all possible alternatives, we Americans will do the right thing.” 

crummy:つまらない
deprived:困窮した
carries:困難にも関わらずやり遂げる
at times:ときには
inordinate:途方もない
psyche:精神
bear:耐える

For all those anxious to see America remain a guarantor of democratic values in Asia, this is a hard moment. For it is the democratic process itself that forces men such as Mr Mattis to twist himself in knots, and to try to convince allies that America stands by certain unvarying principles, even though his commander-in-chief won office by vowing to tear down the status quo. You see, China can murmur to Asian governments now: democracies are unstable and inconstant. 

guarantor:保証人
twist himself in knots:混乱に陥る
convince:納得させる
unvarying:不変の
murmur:ささやく

Here at the Shangri-La Dialogue, delegates do not hide their relief that America has a principled, clever man as defence secretary. But the Pentagon cannot and should not be the final arbiter of how America balances values and interests in national security and foreign policy. That, ultimately, is the job of the president. And here among the Asian military and security establishment, that thought is not reassuring at all. 

arbiter:仲裁者

マット国務長官が色々話をしても、その背後のトランプがどう動くかアジアの人たちはその不安を隠せない。トランプのNATOへの対応、TPPからの離脱、気象変動のパリ協定からの脱退はアジアの人たちにとって、大きな変化だ。そうしたトランプの考えが今まで通りにアジアの安全保障を考えているとは信じがたいと彼らは思っている。要するに信用していないということだ。

土曜日。今日は海野塾の日だ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:23コメント(0) 

2017年06月29日

James MattisはDonald Trumpに関してアジアの同盟国に安心させようとしている。 Shangri-La Dialogueで彼は誰からもうらやまれない立場に置かれた。

James Mattis tries to reassure Asian allies about Donald Trump
At the Shangri-La Dialogue, the defence secretary was placed in an unenviable position
Democracy in America
Jun 3rd 2017by LEXINGTON | SINGAPORE

James MattisはDonald Trumpに関してアジアの同盟国に安心させようとしている。
Shangri-La Dialogueで彼は誰からもうらやまれない立場に置かれた。

Shangri-La Dialogue:IISS(The International Institute for Strategic Studies)(英国国際戦略研究所) が主催するIISSアジア安全保障会議(シャングリラ会合)は、地域安全保障枠組の設立を目的として設置され、毎年シンガポールにおいて、アジア太平洋地域の国防大臣などが多数参加する国際会議であり、地域の課題や防衛協力などが話し合われている。


DONALD TRUMP’S America still stands by allies in Asia and Europe, and “I can give you absolute optimism about this issue,” the Secretary of Defence, James Mattis, told an audience of generals, diplomats and security types at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 3rd. His words were stirring, and just what the gathering longed to hear. Perhaps no member of the Trump administration has as much worldwide credibility as Mr Mattis, a former four-star Marine general with no political background, revered by his peers as a ferocious yet learned “warrior monk”. But deep down the room did not believe him. 

stirring:興奮させる
revered :深く尊敬する
ferocious:獰猛な
monk:僧侶
deep down:心の底では

Mr Mattis is a distinguished man in an unenviable position. His mission here in Singapore is to reassure allies and warn foes that America remains the ultimate guarantor of the rules-based international order that has brought years of nearly uninterrupted peace and prosperity to Asia. But if he does that job too well and insists that America’s global role is unchanged, who will think that he really speaks for President Donald Trump? 

distinguished:抜群の
guarantor :保証人
speaks:代弁する・支持する

For all its high-tech staging (to ask a question, members of the audience must scan their ID badges on their microphone) the Shangri-La Dialogue has a distinctly pre-modern feel. It could be a conference in 19th-century Vienna, or perhaps the set of a James Bond film from the Connery era. Vietnamese generals stride past Australian admirals in tropical whites; a giant of a Fijian officer waits near a waif-like Saudi delegate, his gold-edged robe denoting princely rank. The tectonic energies unleashed by a rising China, a wavering West and an anxious Asia rumble beneath every meeting. 

pre-modern:近代以前の雰囲気
stride:跨いで越す
waif:痩せっぽちの
denoting:を示す
princely:王子の
tectonic:地殻変動の
wavering:浮足立つ
rumble:ダラダラと続く

American defence secretaries are big news at the Shangri-La. Lexington is travelling with Mr Mattis this week on his official military plane, and even an inward-looking America puts on quite the show. The head of the Pentagon travels the world aboard a doomsday plane, a windowless, radiation-shielded military version of a Boeing 747, filled with the secure communications kit to run a nuclear war from aloft. 

puts on quite the show:ショーを上演する
doomsday:最後の審判
aloft:空中に

As soon as the giant plane landed in Singapore and we zipped into the city in a fast motorcade, Mr Mattis was straight into bilateral meetings with prime ministers and ministers of defence, all broadly wanting to ask the same two questions. One, how does Trump’s America see its national security interests in Asia—a question which in June 2017 essentially involves ranking two issues: the urgent threat of North Korea developing a nuclear missile capable of hitting America versus the long-term challenge of a China seemingly intent on becoming a regional hegemon, including by building air bases on contested reefs in the South China Sea? Two, when weighing its interests and values in foreign policy, how much weight does Trump’s America attach to values? 

zipped:勢い良く進む

Mr Mattis used his formal speech to offer a carefully crafted answer to the first question. The short version of his reply is that America takes North Korea very seriously indeed and wants China to do more to rein in the regime there, but will not trade help in that sphere for concessions in the South China Sea that mock international law and the principle that all countries have equal rights regardless of size. The former general noted sharply that the North Korea regime has a “long record of murder of diplomats, of kidnapping, killing of sailors and criminal activity”. 

sphere:領域
concessions:譲歩
mock :嘲る

Its attempts to develop nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles are a “clear and present danger,” Mr Mattis added. The Trump administration believes that China will come to see North Korea as a “liability not an asset,” and hopes to see China’s words opposing a nuclear North Korea matched by actions. 

matched:と一致する

At the same time, Mr Mattis did not soft-pedal his views on Chinese behaviour in the South China Sea. Accusing China of showing “contempt” for the interests of its neighbours, the defence secretary growled that America opposes “countries militarising artificial islands and enforcing excessive maritime claims unsupported by international law. We cannot and will not accept unilateral, coercive changes to the status quo.” 

soft-pedal:控えめに言う
contempt:軽蔑

Speak to American officials, and they insist that it is a false choice to suppose that Chinese co-operation over North Korea can only be bought with concessions in the South China Sea. To simplify, they suggest that this binary choice must be broadened to take in a wide range of other security interests, such as terrorism or global nuclear non-proliferation. They hint that American resolve in the South China Sea, perhaps involving increased freedom of navigation passages by warships and over-flights by airplanes, may demonstrate that as North Korea’s nuclear programme grows more dangerous, America’s appetite for risk will grow in lockstep. 

Speak:に対して意見を述べる
binary:2つの
lockstep:型にはまったやり方

In his public speech on June 3rd, Mr Mattis probably did as good a job as he could of answering that first question about interests. He was limited in what he could do when it came to the second query, about values. 

query:疑問

今年のアジア安全保障会議でマット国防長官は北朝鮮問題と中国の南シナ海の領有問題について、まずはアメリカがこうした2点に関して対処することを同盟国に伝えた。北朝鮮に関しては中国の対応を期待したいと行った。そうなると南シナ海の交渉はどうなるのかという疑問が出てくる。果たして、アメリカはこうした矛盾に対してどこまで真剣に対応しようとしているのだろうか。そもそもマット国防長官の言葉はトランプの考えを代弁しているのだろうか。

金曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 20:38コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年06月28日

サウジアラビアがカタールと断絶する この王国はイランやイエメンと同様にこの隣国との緊張を高めている。

Saudi Arabia cuts off Qatar
The kingdom is raising tensions with its immediate neighbours as well as with Iran and Yemen
Jun 5th 2017

サウジアラビアがカタールと断絶する
この王国はイランやイエメンと同様にこの隣国との緊張を高めている。

SAUDI ARABIA and its satellites have repeatedly put their neighbour Qatar on notice, but never as severely as this. In 2014, they temporarily recalled their ambassadors from the tiny, rich Gulf statelet: but on June 5th, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain announced they were not only severing diplomatic relations with Qatar, but their air, sea and land links too—meaning that Qatar’s only land border is to be closed. Panic buying is already reported in Qatari shops. Qataris must leave Saudi Arabia within days, and will henceforth be denied entry. For good measure the ambitious young Saudi defence minister and deputy crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, expelled Qatar’s 1,000-strong force from the coalition he leads against rebels in Yemen. 

notice:通告する
statelet:小国
severing:切断する
henceforth:今後は
For good measure:更にその上
expelled:追い出す

Qatar is the world’s second-largest exporter of natural gas and will host the football World Cup in 2022, and it has sought to exert influence across the region. Saudi news outlets say the measures are reprisals for Qatar’s support for terrorism, including al-Qaeda. That said, other Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, have also had to fend off claims that they—or their citizens—have helped to fund jihadists. 

exert:行使する
reprisals :報復行為
fend:攻撃をかわす

There are broader and older grievances at play, rooted in geopolitics and the place of Islam in politics. For decades, Saudi and Emirati officials have blamed Qatar, which protrudes like a sore thumb from the western Gulf, for breaking ranks with the Saudi-dominated six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). 

grievances:不満
at play:進行中の
protrudes:突き出る
sore thumb:ひどく目立つ
breaking rank:結束を乱す

Qatar is one of three GCC states that still maintains cordial relations with Iran (Kuwait and Oman are the other two). Its emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, was quoted expressing reservations about Saudi Arabia’s increasingly belligerent posture against Iran. Qatar also sponsors and provides sanctuary to the Muslim Brotherhood, particularly irking the UAE, which deems the Brotherhood a terrorist group. And it also funds and hosts Al Jazeera, a broadcaster that offers a platform to Arab dissidents everywhere but in Qatar, and which fanned the flames of revolution and armed revolt during the Arab Spring. 

cordial:友好的な
emir:首長
quoted:引用する
reservations:疑念
sanctuary:保護
irking:苛立たせる

For all their ambition, the Al Thanis have little appetite for confrontation. Qatar’s foreign ministry has meekly expressed “deep regret” at the severing of ties. In recent years Qatar has scaled back its public support for the Brotherhood. As tensions mounted in recent days it ejected senior members of the Palestinian branch of the Brotherhood, Hamas, and repatriated a dissident wanted in Saudi Arabia. It has disclaimed a headline criticising Saudi Arabia’s stance on Iran, and described the quote attributed to the emir as “fake news”. 

meekly:おとなしく
severing:切断する
ejected:追い出す
repatriated:強制送還する
disclaimed:否定する
headline:見出し
quote:引用句

But the isolation is unlikely to end soon. Saudi Arabia has yet to define its demands for restoring ties, and Qatar can expect little solace from other Arab states. Most of them are likely to welcome Qatar’s comeuppance. Egypt’s president and his fellow generals still fume at Al Jazeera for opposing their overthrow of the Brotherhood’s elected president in 2013; so Egypt quickly joined Saudi Arabia in cutting its links with Qatar. Yemen’s Saudi-supported government, and the UAE-backed authority in eastern Libya also declared they are following suit. 

solace:慰め
comeuppance:当然の報い
fume:憤慨する
suit:人の真似をする

Historically, Qatar looked overseas for protection against Saudi bullying. The British kept the Saudis from extending their rule to its coastal protectorates in the 1920s. More recently, Qatar has reached out to an unlikely assembly of Israel, Iran, Turkey and America for support. Of late, though, its alliances have seemed to fray. Israel has deepened its security relationship with Qatar’s rivals, the UAE, and to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia. 

protectorates:保護国
assembly:集会を持つこと
Of late:最近は
fray:擦ってボロボロにする
to a lesser extent:それ程ではないが

American support may also be less certain. Qatar hosts the largest American base in the Middle East, al-Udeid. Located on the road to the Saudi border, Qataris have long viewed it as their best defence against invasion by land. But many Qataris now fear that America under Donald Trump might be less a regional referee than a Saudi cheerleader. Last month Mr Trump chose Riyadh, the Saudi capital, as the first foreign destination of his presidency, and in return was greeted with Saudi pomp and arms contracts. His foreign policy advisers are reckoned to maintain close ties with Muhammad bin Zayed, the UAE’s de facto ruler, who has been urging America to move its forces there from Qatar for years. 

less certain:それほど確かではない
referee:レフリー
greeted:反応する
pomp:威厳
de facto :事実上の

Qatar could look to Turkey, which shares its favourable view of the Muslim Brotherhood and opened a base in the sheikhdom last year. Given his troubles at home, though, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, might shy from a confrontation with the Al Sauds. That leaves Iran. The two countries jointly manage South Pars, the world’s largest gasfield. In addition, says a cleric close to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has a defence pact with Qatar which commits it to the latter’s defence in the event of a Saudi attack. Already, Iranian officials have offered to send food shipments across the Gulf. Saudi Arabia’s impetuous actions risk further driving Qatar into the arms of Iran, and increasing the danger of armed confrontation with Shia state. In response to nervousness about both outcomes, oil and gas prices are rising. 

shy:ためらう
impetuous:性急な

サウジがカタールとの国交を断絶したが、カタールはイランとの関係を強化しようとしている。アメリカはカタールに基地があるから、彼らとの関係を悪くすることは出来ない。サウジがアラブ諸国と組んで、カタールを締め出したところで、サウジにとっては何のメリットもないはずだ。なぜこんなことをするのだろうか。イランの味方を増やすだけだ。

木曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 23:07コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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