2018年01月06日

2018年の予測 (6)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (6)

2018年の予測 (6)

Globalization, Evolved More Information
As China seeks to address its economic problems at home, several factors beyond its borders will help determine its success. Assuming war does not break out on the Korean Peninsula, China will find much-needed buyers for its exports in the steady economies of Europe and the United States. This relief will be particularly well-timed, considering China's investments in fixed assets — a cornerstone of its economy — will continue to slow next year. 

relief:安堵(あんど)(感), 安心
well-timed:好機を捉えた、時宜を得た

On a less positive note, 2018 will bring the real possibility of heightened tension with the United States in trade as the White House more strictly enforces regulations. China will be one of its primary targets, which — along with the protectionism spreading worldwide — could put pressure on the Chinese economy. Over the past year, U.S. trade measures against China have been largely confined to anti-dumping action; next year they will likely be broader. Even so, both powers will manage their dispute enough to prevent it from escalating into a full-blown trade war. 

full-blown:本格的な, 全面的な〈問題など〉

The United States has erected trade, investment and intellectual property barriers against China for quite some time. However, Trump has wielded these tools more aggressively than many of his predecessors. Combined with his administration's skepticism of multilateral trade mechanisms and determination to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, this approach has encouraged the White House to forgo the use of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to settle trade disputes where possible. 

erected:〈障壁など〉を設ける.
for quite some time:かなり長期間[長い間]、結構前から
forgo:を差し控える, 遠慮する.

The United States used this year to lay the groundwork for a two-pronged offensive against China. First, it opened an investigation into Chinese intellectual property practices under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Second, it began to scrutinize national security concerns related to the steel industry under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Both of these developments will come to a head in the next 12 to 18 months. On matters covered by the rules of the WTO, the United States will challenge China's intellectual property practices through the organization. More often, however, it will target Beijing's behavior beyond the WTO's bounds. 

lay the groundwork:土台[基礎]を作る[築く]、下地を作る、下準備をする、根回しをする
two-pronged:二又の
bounds:境界(線); 境界内, 領域

The White House may focus on the sectors it explicitly mentioned in its trade strategy, including heavy industries like steel, automotive and some electronics. Washington will also enter into negotiations with Beijing to persuade it to ease certain trade and investment barriers. Meanwhile, the United States could pursue additional action against Chinese steel and aluminum under the auspices of its national security review. Divisions within the Trump administration might limit the use of this option, though, especially as China keeps slashing production in both industries. 

auspices:支援

For its part, China will answer by bringing cases to the WTO in hopes of responding with measures sanctioned by the organization. But to hedge its bets, China will also build out its own intellectual property protections — safeguards it increasingly has use for as its companies pump out higher-value products. In addition, Beijing will use the promise of easing its technological transfer requirements or opening up its financial, services and renewable energy-fueled vehicle markets to dissuade Washington from applying more pressure to the Chinese economy. 

hedge one's bets:〔危険を分散させるために〕複数のものに賭ける 両面作戦をとる
dissuade:説得して…することを思いとどまらせる

Though Xi has vowed to open up China's markets before, foreign investors have been dissatisfied with the lack of progress during his first five-year term in office. The Chinese state's steady consolidation of economic power has only added to their frustration. That said, as Xi and the Party achieve the level of control they seek, they may resume many of their long-delayed reforms. To that end, Beijing will test the waters of market liberalization by creating more room for foreign investment in pilot regions like the Shanghai free trade zone. But China will proceed only insofar as these projects align with its overarching strategy, ensuring that they won't be drastic enough to deter punitive trade measures by the United States. 

He is right insofar as this issue is concerned.:この件に関する限り彼は正しい.
overarching :すべてに関わる, 包括的な; 非常に重要な.
ensuring:を確実にする, 保証する
deter:に思いとどまらせる, ためらわせる

In fact, under its Made in China 2025 initiative, China has dramatically expanded the role of the state in corporate investments into strategic sectors overseas, such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, for the past three years. Such moves will keep causing concern in developed markets like the European Union and the United States as the competition heats up in high-end markets and accusations of unfair Chinese practices abound. Consequently, Western countries will keep a closer eye on Chinese investments into their high-tech industries. 

China's persistent quest for market-economy status within the WTO — against the wishes of the United States and the European Union — will be another source of friction. To make matters worse, Beijing has opened cases within the organization against both parties; a verdict on China's dispute with the European Union will likely appear by early 2019. Should the Continental bloc and the United States lose their cases, they probably will remain steadfast in their demands of China. Washington will be particularly reluctant to relent, perhaps forcing Beijing to return to the negotiating table. 

friction:摩擦
steadfast:不動の, 揺るがない, しっかりした
relent:態度を和らげる, 折れる.

Of course, China won't be the only country in the United States' crosshairs. Japan and South Korea have experienced similar pressure from their increasingly protectionist ally as the United States seeks to reduce its trade deficits with them. They, too, have tried to avoid drawing Washington's ire. Tokyo was somewhat successful on this front in 2017, and it will continue to fend off Washington's demands. Seoul, on the other hand, faces the lengthy process of renegotiating its free trade agreement with Washington. 

crosshairs:〔照準器の1本の〕照準線、十字線
ire:憤怒, 怒り(anger).
fend off :回避する かわす

During these talks, the United States will likely push for greater access to South Korea's automobile, electronics and agriculture sectors. At the extreme, Washington may even renounce the pact if it is not satisfied with the results of the talks. Though South Korea has little interest in jeopardizing its relationship with the United States amid the imminent threats emanating from North Korea, any disruption to their trade arrangement will strain the South Korean economy — giving countries like China an opportunity to exploit the rift widening between the two allies. 

renounce:を放棄する(give up)
emanating:生じる, 出る
strain:精神的緊張, 過労, ストレス
rift:仲たがい, 不和

The premium that Washington has placed on bilateral trade negotiations will only encourage other countries in the Asia-Pacific to seek out multilateral trade platforms that exclude the United States in order to advance their own agendas. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership — a version of the shuttered Trans-Pacific Partnership that the United States does not belong to — still needs to reconcile its members' conflicting opinions and navigate issues surrounding state-owned enterprises, dispute resolution mechanisms and cultural exemptions. But as the deal gradually takes shape, potentially granting Japan a bigger role in setting regional trade policies, China may feel the need to fast-track its own proposal for an economic bloc: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. 

premium:〔特に政府・役所からの〕賞、賞金、賞品、賞与(金)、褒章金
shuttered:休業中の
exemptions:(義務・支払いなどの)免除, 免責.
fast-track:を迅速に処理する.

グローバリゼーションに進展において、やはり中国とアメリカとの葛藤は続く。特に、知財とか素材のダンピングばかりでなく、貿易の不均衡収支に対して、アメリカは中国を制裁しようとしている。もちろん中国だけで得なく、日本、韓国もそのターゲゲットとだ。アメリカはWTOをはずして、交渉している。そして、二国間協定を推進しようとしているので、TPPのような多国間協定を推進しようとしている国家にとってはそれぞれの国家が自国の国益を求めるいい機会になるかもしれない。中国はRCEPを早急に推進しようとしている。

日曜日。今日は母親の見舞いだ。では、また明日。

swingby_blog at 18:29コメント(0) 

2018年の予測 (5)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (5)

2018年の予測 (5)


China in Transition More Information
If the unlikely possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula comes to pass, it would have a devastating effect on the political and economic stability that China has worked for the past three decades to preserve. But beyond the potential crisis brewing next door, China has no shortage of internal challenges to address as it enters a new political and economic era. In many ways, Chinese President Xi Jinping's consolidation of power over the past five years is the result of the country's transformation over the past 30 years as the ruling Communist Party has struggled to weather the profound domestic and international challenges it faces. As Xi starts his second term, maintaining his unrivaled authority will be imperative, particularly as a critical period of China's ongoing restructuring begins. 

preserve:維持する
have no shortage of:〜には不自由しない
consolidation:強化する[される]こと; 強固.
weather:〈嵐・困難など〉を無事に乗り切る, うまく切り抜ける
profound:〈影響などが〉深刻な, 重大な
imperative:絶対必要で, 必須で; 緊急で

Xi's newly amassed power will help him marshal the resources and forces he needs to advance his vision for China. This future calls for the substantial redistribution of wealth; greater socio-economic equality; a stronger Party, state and military apparatus; and the projection of power to match the country's rising influence worldwide. Each of these goals is difficult to implement and is made up of many equally daunting objectives that require the ability to push tough reforms through many different interest groups. However, the close coordination of policy within a robust Party and state structure will remove some of the obstacles ahead of Xi, paving the way for the more challenging and politically sensitive reforms as he deems necessary.

amassed:(長時間かけて)〈財産・情報など〉を貯める, 蓄える(accumulate); …を集める.
marshal:〈支持・力など〉を集める, 結集する; …を組織化する
daunting :〈仕事・見通しなどが〉(人を)ひるませるような, 気をくじく.

Xi's tight grip on power will also create high expectations, though, leaving him little room to guard against policy inefficiencies or failures. Here the Communist Party's ability to keep demonstrating its commitment to identifying and punishing the misdeeds of government officials and institutions is key. The Party will establish an anti-corruption supervisory body, the National Supervision Commission, in March. 

misdeeds:悪行, 不正行為; 犯罪.

The new organization will lend additional momentum, enforcement and oversight to the campaign against graft that has underpinned Xi's political agenda and ability to sideline opponents. But it may also fuel concerns about the abuse of power, particularly at the local level. As Beijing feels more compelled to defend its authority, it will rely on political and ideological conformity, the control of the media or the suppression of dissidents to enforce its official line, risking backlash in the process. 

lend:与える
sideline:(重要なポストから)はずす
conformity:【社会通念・体制・慣習などへの】順応, 従順, 服従

Next year Xi's agenda will center on the challenging socio-economic issues plaguing China. The economy's growth is slowing, compounding the country's substantial regional and social inequality, distorted financial systems and severe environmental degradation. After several years of gradual progress, the Communist Party will look to speed the pace of reform ahead — testing its ability to shore up legitimacy as the economy loses steam. 

compounding:〈良くない物・事が〉〈問題・困難な状況など〉をさらに複雑にする, さらに悪化させる
substantial:(数量・規模などが)かなりの, 相当な; (満足できる程)十分な; (実際に)重大な, 価値のある
distorted:ゆがめる
severe:深刻な; 〈症状が〉重い; 〈天候・天災などが〉厳しい, ひどい
shore up:補強する
lose steam:〈計画・活動などが〉勢いをなくす.

With an eye toward the redistribution of wealth, Xi will accelerate fiscal reforms in 2018, channeling more money to underdeveloped regions and bolstering the financial base of local governments. At the same time, China will keep taking steps to improve social welfare as reforms to land policies and the hukou system of household registration take shape. 

take shape:〔アイデア・夢などが〕形になる、具体化する

Despite its eagerness to push ahead with its plans, Beijing will proceed with some caution to make sure that the rapid rate of reform doesn't endanger social stability. To that end, fiscal proposals will focus on issues that aren't politically sensitive, such as the implementation of environmental taxes, an uptick in resource taxation and the reduction of taxes for small businesses and individuals. Though China may also take steps toward imposing a property tax, the country's highly leveraged real estate market could delay any attempts to enact the measure nationwide. Nevertheless, the public's expectations of the government's efficacy will ramp up alongside its effort to contain soaring property prices, especially in large cities.

leveraged:〈企業など〉に借入金で投資する.
efficacy:効能, 効力, 効き目, 有効性(effectiveness)
ramp up:〈生産など〉を増やす.
alongside:と同時に

China's Cooling Property Prices

China's Cooling Property Prices
China likewise will keep in place production cuts in heavy industries like coal and steel while trying to deleverage those sectors. At the same time, it will more closely enforce environmental regulations. But it will do so only to the extent that these efforts don't seriously disrupt employment and stability, particularly when it comes to shutting down the country's struggling zombie corporations, or state-owned enterprises operating at a loss. Beijing's attempt to tackle inefficiency in the heavy industries may put upward pressure on the prices of commodities like coal and steel, offsetting slowing investment. If commodity prices rise, the government would have more leeway with the public to hasten its campaign. 

keep ~ in place:〜を所定位置に保持する、〜を適切に維持する
leverage :影響力, 支配力
put upward pressure on the price of:〜の価格[値段]を押し上げる[に上昇圧力をかける]
leeway:自由(裁量), 余地 ≪to do≫ ; (時間・空間・金などの)余裕

Ensuring financial stability will be at the top of Xi's economic agenda. China's mountain of debt will grow steadily higher over the next four years, climbing from 251 percent of the country's GDP today to as much as 320 percent by 2022. However, throughout 2017, Beijing worked to reduce the country's most dangerous debt burdens and pre-empt the risks posed by the rest. It also offered debt-for-equity swaps and private capital to state-owned enterprises, reinforced oversight mechanisms, closed legal loopholes on shadow lending and tightened real estate regulations in major metropolises. 

pre-empt:回避する
by the rest:rest of world
debt-for-equity swap:債務対株式の交換、債務の株式化
shadow lending:シャドーバンキングは、「影の銀行」とも呼ばれ、通常の銀行ではなく、投資銀行(証券会社)やヘッジファンド、証券化のための特殊な運用会社などの金融業態の総称をいう。 ... 一般にシャドーバンキングは、免許制などで金融当局から厳しく監督される通常の銀行と比べて規制が緩く、金融当局も実態をよく把握しきれていない。
metropolises:(国・州・地域の)主要都市, 大都市; 首都.

The Growing Mountain of Chinese Debt

The Growing Mountain of Chinese Debt
China will feel the benefits of these measures in 2018, but they won't guarantee the country a stable financial future. The new year will bring new sources of strain as high maturity rates are applied to overlapping corporate and local debts for the next three years. At the same time, the creation of credit and the Chinese real estate market appear likely to stall. Stress in the real estate sector, which will account for half of China's corporate debt maturity in 2018, could in turn carry substantial risks: Not only would a meltdown in the market trigger a series of corporate defaults, but it would also put considerable pressure on the country's financial system. 

strain:緊張
maturity:支払期日

China has the fiscal and regulatory tools to avoid this scenario, at least on a national scale. However, a localized debt crisis or collapse in the real estate market cannot be ruled out, especially in the vulnerable and heavily indebted areas of the northeastern rust belt, central provinces and heavy industries such as construction, utilities and steel. At best, a contained catastrophe would detract from China's ability to maintain its economic growth and pursue difficult reforms; at worst, it could result in local corporate defaults, bankruptcies and even popular discontent. 

ruled out:無視する、除外する、排除する
detract:〈価値・名声など〉を落とす, 損なう
discontent:不満

いま習近平は国内の改革が山ほどある。特に累積債務をどうするかが大きな課題で、下手をするとそうした債務のある企業が不動作への過大投資と相まって、返済不能になり、デフォールトを起こしてしまうかもしれない。そうなると社会不安を起こしてしまう。この3年間に多くの企業が債務の返済期限を迎える。この債務の背景にはシャドーバンキングによる政府の監視の目をくぐった債務がある。これらの債務をどう対処するかが今後の大きな課題である。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 05:48コメント(0) 

2018年01月04日

2018年の予測 (4)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (4)

2018年の予測 (4)

Asia-Pacific
The Asia-Pacific is home to more people than any other region. Centered on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, this region includes the easternmost countries of continental Asia as well as the archipelagos that punctuate the coast. Several of these countries, most notably China, experienced rapid economic growth in the second half of the 20th century, giving the region a new sense of global economic relevance that continues today. 

archipelagos:群島, 諸島; 多島海.
punctuate:を強調する. 〜に句読点を付ける[打つ]
relevance:適切(さ), 妥当性

That relevance, however, depends largely on China, a power in transition whose rise is testing the network of U.S. alliances that have long dominated the region. How effectively Beijing manages its transition will shape the regional balance of power in the decades to come. 

Section Highlights
As North Korea races to achieve a viable nuclear deterrent, the United States could choose to launch a military strike against it. But because of the steep costs that such action would carry, Washington is more likely to shift toward a policy of containment.
China will take advantage of the United States' distraction in North Korea to deepen its conciliatory outreach to its Southeast Asian neighbors.
Though the United States will intensify its economic offensive against China, the limits of those measures and Beijing's appeals within the World Trade Organization will prevent the outbreak of a trade war.
At home, President Xi Jinping's steady consolidation of power will give him freer rein to enact critical reforms. However, he will have to reconcile measures to improve financial stability and pollution control with the need to maintain stable growth.

viable:〈計画などが〉実現[実行]可能な; 成功の見込める
conciliatory :〈態度・やり方などが〉なだめるような; 懐柔的な; 融和的な.
consolidation:強化する[される]こと; 強固.

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea More Information
North Korea became the center of gravity in the Asia-Pacific region in 2017 as it passed the year with 16 missile tests and the underground detonation of a nuclear device. There will be no difference in 2018 as Pyongyang tests its weapons' re-entry and guidance capabilities, launches missile salvos over Japan, considers testing intercontinental ballistic missiles near their maximum range or conducts an atmospheric nuclear test over the Pacific Ocean. Though estimates vary, many experts predict that North Korea will achieve a viable nuclear deterrent in 2018. 

salvos:(礼砲の)一斉発射, (戦争での)一斉砲火[爆撃].
atmospheric :大気の, 大気中の, 大気によって起こる

Within this tight window, the United States will have to decide whether to curb North Korea's nuclear capabilities by force or manage them through a strategy of deterrence. This weighty decision will be at the forefront of global leaders' minds next year, ultimately resting with U.S. President Donald Trump and his advisers. 

weighty:〈問題などが〉重要な, 重大な(⦅よりくだけて⦆important); 〈人が〉影響力のある; 〈発言などが〉説得力のある.
forefront:(活動・関心・責任などの)第一線, 中心, 重要部分, 先頭; (物の)最前部; (戦闘などの)最前線
resting:〈決定・責任などが〉 【人に】かかっている, ≪…≫ 次第である ≪with≫

The first (and less likely) scenario of crippling Pyongyang's nuclear program would require a preventive military strike. Should the United States choose this course, North Korea's response would have devastating consequences, including a massive disruption to regional trade that would heavily damage the electronics, automotive and appliances industries and send shockwaves throughout the global economy.

crippling:重大な障害を与える〈影響など〉.

South Korea would bear the brunt of North Korea's retaliation, though Japan may suffer attacks as well. China, meanwhile, would have to decide whether to intervene on the Korean Peninsula to secure a territorial buffer on its doorstep and to stem the outflow of refugees that would likely ensue — raising the specter of confrontation between it and the United States. 

brunt:bear [suffer, take] the brunt of 〈攻撃・批判〉の矢面に立つ; A〈悪い状況〉の影響を被る.
specter:不安(材料). 幽霊, 亡霊(ghost).

If Washington begins leaning toward a military strike, several signs will warn of its coming. First, the United States will pull out all the stops in its campaign to pressure Pyongyang into cooperation, perhaps even leveling harsh sanctions on some of China's core financial institutions and economic entities that do business with North Korea. These measures would come at a time when China is already undertaking a difficult overhaul of its economy, creating economic fallout in and beyond the region. 

pull out all the stops:最大限の努力をする、全力を尽くす、とことんまで頑張る
leveling:level a gun at 〜に銃[筒先]を向ける、〜に銃の狙いを定める
economic fallout:経済的低迷

Second, the United States and its Asian allies would begin moving their military hardware. Washington would order the long-term deployment of two or three carrier battle groups to the waters around the Korean Peninsula; regional intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance assets would increase; land-based air power, such as stealth fighters, would relocate nearby; submarine deployments would become more frequent; and South Korean troops and reserves would mobilize.

reconnaissance:偵察
surveillance:監視

Of course, the absence of any or all of these developments wouldn't rule out a preventive strike, since the United States is capable of launching a limited attack on North Korea with its existing presence in the Asia-Pacific. Moreover, an attempt to shoot down a North Korean missile, successful or not, could spark a war. 

rule out:〔実行などを〕不可能にする、妨げる

Barring the unlikely event of a coup in Pyongyang, any measures short of military action won't sway North Korea from its path toward a credible nuclear deterrent. Despite agreeing to a severe U.N. sanctions package against the country in 2017, neither China nor Russia wants the North Korean government to collapse. As a result, they will avoid any action that jeopardizes its stability unless they believe the measures would forestall a strike by the U.S. military. Even if the international community deepens its sanctions regime to an oil embargo or trade ban, North Korea has many tools at its disposal for insulating its leaders and achieving its not-so-distant nuclear goals. 

Barring:…がなければ; …を除いては.
short:なしで(は), Aがなかったら(without)
forestall:を阻止[予防]する(stop, prevent).
disposal:の自由になる(ように)
insulating: 孤立させる

What a North Korean Nuclear Test Over the Pacific Might Look Like

What a North Korean Nuclear Test Over the Pacific Might Look Like
Given the massive costs that a military strike against North Korea would carry, as well as the short time frame in which it must be executed, the United States is more likely to choose its second option: containment and deterrence. The former might entail the economic isolation of the North Korean government, with the intent of limiting the growth of its nuclear arsenal. The latter would involve the gradual buildup of ballistic missile defenses, the permanent monitoring of North Korean activities and the compression of military decision-making channels among the United States and its allies. 

compression:(思想・表現などの)簡潔化

Still, a strategy of deterrence carries its own long-term risks, including a heightened threat of miscalculation, similar buildups by Russia and China, and the nuclearization of South Korea and Japan. Furthermore, the fortification of a U.S.-aligned defense infrastructure around North Korea could undermine the missile architecture of Russia and China, bringing their mutual interests further in line, just as the deployment of the U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system to South Korea has. 

As tension mounts on the Korean Peninsula, the United States will work to renew the resolve of its most important regional allies. Over the past year, its ties with South Korea and Japan have strengthened. Though Seoul firmly opposes the idea of a preventive military strike against Pyongyang, neither it nor Tokyo would be able to stop Washington from launching one. Even if the United States rejects that route, a pre-emptive strike meant to interrupt an impending North Korean attack would still be on the table. 

impending:差し迫った〈危険など〉

差し迫っているのは北朝鮮の核開発の問題だ。アメリカの先制攻撃は犠牲が大きすぎるが、まだ俎上にある。制裁と封じ込めの手段はもう一つのアクションで、これはロシアと中国が協力しない。もう一つは北朝鮮のミサイルを撃ち落とすことだが、THAADのような展開を行うと、そうした軍事的な設備をロシアも中国も対応して開発してくる懸念がある。

アジアの課題でその他には中国がアジア諸国に影響力を増してくる。アメリカが中国に対して経済制裁をかけても、経済戦争にまでは発展しないだろう。習近平は国内の改革を推進し、不良債権の処理と環境汚染の対策を講じるだろう。

金曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 22:38コメント(0) 

2018年01月03日

2018年の予測 (3)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (3)

2018年の予測 (3)

U.S. Trade Balances: Top 10 Partners, 2016


U.S. Trade Balances: Top 10 Partners, 2016
Should negotiations reach an impasse, the United States is more likely to abandon its trade deal with South Korea than other agreements on the table. The ties that bind the U.S. economy to South Korea's are weaker than those linking it to countries like Mexico. And though Trump could choose to pull out of NAFTA next year, the bloc's proponents — including U.S. lawmakers who will weigh the risks of withdrawal as they head into midterm elections — will try to legally block moves by the president to keep the trade pact from falling apart. By and large, the role of the U.S. Congress in regulating foreign commerce and legal disputes will continue to curb executive action in trade in the year ahead. 

impasse:袋小路; 行き詰まり, 難局(deadlock)
proponents:支持者; 提案者, 発議者.

The separation of national security and trade may be unique to the Trump administration, but protectionism and a willingness to flout the rulings of the World Trade Organization (WTO) existed in Washington well before Trump arrived at the White House. The United States has long held the opinion that the WTO is ill-equipped to hold China accountable for the free trade violations that its particular brand of state capitalism perpetrates. Although the European Union and Japan share the United States' desire for stricter enforcement of WTO regulations, Washington will not bank on the slim chance that the unwieldy trade body will push reforms through its ponderous, consensus-based bureaucracy. 

flout:(故意に)〈法・規則など〉を無視する; 〈権威・慣習など〉に従わない.
ill-equipped:必要な設備[技能]を持っていない
perpetrates:〈過失・罪など〉を行う, 犯す(commit) 
bank on:当てにする
unwieldy:〈組織などが〉(大きすぎるなどとして)非効率的な.
ponderous:(重たい物の動きが)のっそりとした, のろい(awkward).

With China squarely in its sights, Washington will slap Beijing with punitive measures on trade, investment and intellectual property enforcement that it can argue are within or outside of the WTO's jurisdiction, depending which designation best suits its needs. The United States already has dusted off two important trade tools at its disposal: A Section 301 investigation of intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers, and a Section 232 investigation into whether imports of Chinese steel hurt U.S. national security and are thus subject to tariffs. (A review of the first case is due in August, and a review of the second case is due in January, at which point the president will have 90 days to act on it.) 

squarely:はっきりと
jurisdiction:権限の範囲; 管轄区域
designation:指定、指名、指示
dusted off:〈昔使っていた物〉を再び使い始める; 〈古い考え・方法など〉を使い回す.

Washington also will keep lobbying the European Union to withhold market-economy status from China in the WTO — a label Beijing claims the organization promised it in 2016 that would make it more difficult to impose anti-dumping measures against China. Though a verdict for the legal challenge on this matter won't come until 2019, a WTO panel will review the case in 2018.

label:標識 ラベル ブランド
verdict:評決

The Trump administration's trademark bluntness and unilateral pursuit of its trade agenda will continue to raise alarm worldwide, leaving the impression that the White House is intent on dismantling the WTO and razing the global trade order that it has underpinned since the end of World War II. But such concern is likely unwarranted. Though the United States will be more willing to act independently outside the bounds of the WTO, it will not incur the economic risk of withdrawing from the bloc. Instead Washington will rely on it as an enforcement body, even as it compensates for the institution's weaknesses with measures of its own.

bluntness:遠慮会釈もない物言い, ぶしつけな態度.
dismantling:(徐々に)〈制度・組織など〉を廃止する, 解体する.
razing:〈町・建物が〉完全に破壊された.
underpinned:支える
unwarranted:根拠のない
bounds :限界, 制限範囲, 際限(limit)
incur:(自分のせいで)〈損害・出費・非難など〉を招く, 
compensates:【不利な状況・不足などを】埋め合わせる, 補う

Despite the escalation, the White House will stop short of triggering a trade war. While U.S. trade partners will watch its moves with apprehension, they will respond mildly for the most part. Some, like Japan, will try to deflect Washington's advances by highlighting their strategic relationship with and investments into the United States. Others that come into the White House's direct line of fire will challenge its trade attacks at the WTO and in U.S. courts, where litigation could outlast Trump's current term. As for China, some punitive U.S. trade measures will even neatly intersect with Beijing's domestic reforms and will not pose an existential threat to the Chinese economy. 

stop short of:〜の寸前[手前]で止まる[やめる]、〜するまでには至らない
deflect:かわす
advances:侵攻
line of fire:攻撃を受けやすい位置
litigation:訴訟
outlast:よりも長く持つ
intersect:〈道・川などが〉〈場所〉を横切る, 区分する; …と交差する

アメリカは貿易不均衡に対してWTOの措置が生ぬるいとして、自ら、中国に対して制裁措置に乗り出している。こうしたアメリカの態度は一概に悪いとはいえない。WTOは巨大すぎて、アクションも鈍く、適切な対応が取られていない。アメリカは301条項とか232条項のような古い規約を持ち出して中国を制裁しようとしている。日本はかつてこうしたことに対してはアメリカに投資をして工場を作って来た経緯がある。また他の国はWTOとかアメリカの裁判所に提訴している。

A Crude Recovery More Information
Barring a major shock to the global economy, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers hope to meet their goal of rebalancing the oil market in 2018. As the world's inventories continue to decline in the first half of the year, political divisions in Iraq and capacity constraints in Libya and Nigeria will mitigate the risk of oil producers extending their agreement to limit output into 2019. Signatories will hold a critical meeting to review their progress in June. 

Barring:を除いては がなければ


Oil Production Cuts Offset by Production Increases

Oil Production Cuts Offset by Production Increases
The biggest question next year is how well Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies will see the pact through to its conclusion. They will try to shoulder the bulk of the burden of maintaining production cuts as compliance starts to slip among other members eager to exit the agreement. And as its expiration draws near, U.S. shale production will likely ramp up amid higher oil prices. Determined not to incentivize a strong recovery in U.S. shale output, Saudi Arabia and Russia may continue to collaborate in energy long after the current quotas have ended. For instance, Saudi Arabia can use Russian assistance to diversify its energy sector while working with Moscow to restrict production.

compliance: 【規則・要請などに】従う[応じる]こと, 承諾; (企業などにおける)法令遵守
slip:slip from the government's grasp 政府の支配を免れる
draws:draw near [close, (まれ)nigh]〈人・車・出来事などが〉近づく
incentivize:を奨励する.

But this cooperation in energy will do little to defuse the competition intensifying in the Middle East. The Trump administration's vow to prevent Iran from following in North Korea's footsteps will bring Tehran and the fate of its nuclear deal with the West back into the spotlight. Saudi Arabia and Israel, keen to roll back Iranian influence while they have the blessing of the White House, will revitalize their campaign to weaken Iran and its allies, including Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. 

defuse:〈緊張など〉を和らげる, 静める.
roll back :を押し返す

Backed by Russia, Iran will have the resources to hold its ground as the war among regional proxies builds. But it will take care to avoid alienating Europe, which will be necessary in checking any effort by the United States to shred the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The European Union, along with China, Russia and India, won't fully comply with U.S. attempts to reintroduce sanctions against Iran's energy sector. But if the nuclear deal collapses, oil producers may abandon their production cuts early as Saudi Arabia and Russia move quickly to account for the loss of Iranian supplies on the market. 

shred:を切り刻む, ずたずたにする

Much of the urgency behind Saudi Arabia's reform agenda and preoccupation with the global oil market's recovery stems from a longer-term challenge that the kingdom and other oil producers face: the expansion of the electric vehicle market. Over the past year, Europe, China and India spearheaded policy initiatives that aimed to boost the adoption of alternative-energy vehicles. Industry reports, moreover, point to growing demand for such cars in the short and medium term. 

preoccupation:気がかりな状態

As demand rises, so, too, will demand for the vehicles' batteries and the lithium they are made of. Though this trend will take decades to unfold, investment in the production of electric cars and related technology will increase next year. Because lithium resources are concentrated among only a handful of countries, including Argentina, Chile and Bolivia, several producers will be well positioned to take advantage of mounting interest in lithium — especially Argentina, since the Common Market of the South, to which the country belongs, will liberalize its trade policies in 2018. 

石油はサウジとロシアが組んで、アメリカに対応して、減産して、値崩れを防いでいる。イランに対してアメリカが制裁を加えようとしているが、今までのEUと中国、日本が制裁解除の契約をしているので、イランの石油は持ち直しているが、制裁されれば、状況は変わってくる。石油市場は自動車産業の消費がその大きな需要だが、近年、電気自動車にシフトしているので、今後の需要が懸念されている。そして、電池の原料のリチウムが脚光を浴びてきていてい、アルゼンチンがその最大の利益享受国になるだろう。


木曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:39コメント(0) 

2018年の予測 (2)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (2)

2018年の予測 (2)

Global Trends
In today's world, nations are becoming increasingly interconnected by air, land, sea and cyberspace. As globalization has knitted countries and continents closer together, the borders of the map and the barriers of geography have been rendered, in some ways, obsolete. Now events in one region can more easily have consequences in another, at times even rippling across the globe. We explore those with the greatest impact on international decision-making during the forecast period below.

rendered:The law would be rendered useless [ineffective].その法律は無用[無効]になるだろう
consequences:(主に悪い)結果, 結末, 成り行き, 影響 
rippling:〈感情・反応・衝撃などが〉 ≪…を≫ 波紋のように広がる, 伝播(でんぱ)する 
explore:〈問題・可能性など〉を探究する, 検討する, 探る

Read Synopsis 
Because the United States is the only actor with the ability to tip the scales of several geopolitical scenarios in either direction, any forecast of the year ahead must start with Washington.(NASA/Newsmakers)

Synopsis:梗概, 概要, 大意.

Section Highlights
The United States will reluctantly adopt a policy of containment toward North Korea when Pyongyang achieves a viable nuclear deterrent, likely in 2018.
An emerging coalition between China and Russia will increasingly challenge U.S. hegemony, although alliances will remain fluid worldwide.
Working within and beyond the bounds of the World Trade Organization, the United States will pursue an aggressive trade agenda against China, Mexico, South Korea and Japan.
As the global oil market recovers, Saudi Arabia will bear the burden of keeping production cuts in place as other oil producers renege on their agreed-upon quotas. The Saudis will look to Russia to help forestall an uptick in U.S. shale output.

fluid:〔状況などが〕流動的な、変わりやすい、不安定な
bounds:境界(線); 境界内, 領域
renege:【約束・合意などを】破棄する, 反故(ほご)にする
forestall:を阻止[予防]する(stop, prevent).

Geopolitics Is Back With a Vengeance
Countries across the globe will kick off the new year with a bit of good news. A decade after financial crisis shook the world to its core, growth in the global gross domestic product has finally begun to pick back up. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that the global economy will grow more than 3.5 percent in 2018 — the fastest pace seen in eight years. 

with Vengeance :猛烈に; 激しく; 極度に; まさしく

But many of the deep structural problems that the financial crisis exposed have endured, signaling a more fragile recovery ahead than the cyclical rebounds of the past. Moreover, a number of geopolitical risks — looming conflict on the Korean Peninsula, threats of a global trade war, stark battle lines drawn in the Middle East, and anxiety over Chinese and Italian debt, to name a few — could cut the economy's comeback short. As U.S. national security adviser H.R. McMaster said recently, "Geopolitics are back, and back with a vengeance after this holiday from history we took in the post-Cold War period." 

to name a few:2〜3例を挙げると
His musical career was cut short by his illness.:彼の音楽家としてのキャリアが病気のためにだめになった.

By themselves, these threats will influence how governments and corporations adapt to a tenser international environment in 2018. However, the worst-case outcome of each risk isn't necessarily the most likely. And because the United States is the only actor with the ability to tip the scales of several scenarios in either direction, any forecast of the year ahead must start with Washington. 

necessarily:A lower price does not necessarily mean [imply] a better buy. 安価な物が必ずしも買い得だとはいえない
tip:〈物〉をひっくり返す, 倒す(over, up).

By now the world has had a year to observe the presidency of Donald Trump. While there are some aspects of his term that are unique, and therefore more fleeting in their effects, many of Trump's actions stem from deeper forces that will last well beyond his time in office. With regard to the former, a handful of institutional checks on the executive branch made headlines throughout 2017. Congress worked to tie the president's hands in lifting sanctions against Russia. (Lawmakers may likewise try to block Trump from unilaterally withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2018.) 

unique:be in a unique position 格別の地位にある
fleeting:つかの間の, はかない; ちらっと[ちょっと, さっと]した〈動作など〉; さっと通りすぎる〈人・物〉

The national security establishment has angled to preserve U.S. commitments to NATO while clearly defining the risks attached to instigating war with North Korea or abandoning a nuclear deal with Iran. Figures at the state, corporate and local levels have openly defied Trump's attempts to withdraw from the Paris climate change accord and to reduce state support for alternative and renewable energy sources. 

angled:遠回しに求める, それとなく得ようとする
instigating:(公式に)〈計画など〉を開始する, …に着手する.
defied:〈法律・規則・権威など〉に従わない, 公然と反抗する; …を無視する, ものともしない

But Trump also doesn't consider himself beholden to the Republican Party or his national security advisers, and he has shown less hesitation than most American presidents to dismiss dissenters or appoint loyalists who adhere to his agenda. Thus, Trump has a wider margin in which to operate than many of his predecessors, which not only will raise the risk of rifts widening within the Republican Party in an election year but will also keep U.S. allies and adversaries on their toes as they try to distinguish between the rhetoric and reality coming from the White House.

beholden:恩義をうけて, 借りがあって 
rifts:仲たがい, 不和
keep the audience on its toes:〔スリル満点のショーなどで〕観客をくぎ付けにする

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea More Information
Trump's most consequential decision in 2018 will be how to deal with North Korea's rapidly developing nuclear arsenal. The window for a U.S. preventive strike aimed at devastating Pyongyang's program is closing fast. Though a preventive strike can't be ruled out, its steep price tag — a messy war that shoves the world back into economic recession — will make the United States more likely to resign itself to the uncomfortable reality of North Korea's possession of a viable nuclear deterrent. 

ruled out:〈可能性など〉を除外[排除]する.
messy:厄介な
shoves :David shoved the chair back under the desk. デイビッドは机の下にいすを押し込んで戻した.
resign:I had to resign myself to the fact that she was gone forever. 彼女は二度と戻ってこないという事実を受け入れざるをえなかった.

This acceptance will mark the start of a new and unstable era of nuclear deterrence as the United States and its Asian allies adopt a policy of containment toward the Hermit Kingdom. The gradual degradation of arms-control agreements struck in the 20th century will only further complicate matters as Russia and China try to balance against the United States' expanding missile defense network.

Hermit Kingdom:隠者王国◆1636〜1876年頃の朝鮮につけられた名前

North Korean Nuclear Tests
In fact, lately Russia and China have found more reason to cooperate than compete with each other. Both countries are working to insulate themselves from U.S. pressure and reduce Washington's influence in strategic theaters around the globe. To that end, they have hashed out a division of labor of sorts: Where both states share interests, Russia addresses security issues as it deems fit while China takes the lead on economic matters. Moscow and Beijing also have deepened their cooperation in finance, trade, energy, cybersecurity and defense. 

insulate:電線などを絶縁する
to that end:その目的[目標]で[に向かって・に向けて・を達成するために]
fit:(大きさ・形が)〈人・物〉にぴったり合う, 適合する

North Korean Nuclear Tests

Though this emerging partnership poses a strategic threat to the United States, it will also provide ample opportunity for exploitation as Washington tries to bolster its allies in Russia and China's neighborhood. (Taiwan, in particular, could become a source of contention between Washington and Beijing next year.) Still, today's international environment does not resemble the Cold War, when bolder lines defined alliances and great powers engaged in zero-sum contests. Economic interdependence, mutual distrust and unreliable security guarantees will encourage ostensible allies to hedge against one another for their own protection. Such fluid relationships will come to define the global order in 2018 and beyond. 

ample :十分すぎるほどの, 豊富な
contention:論争, 議論, 口論; 争い, 競争
ostensible:表向きの, 建前の, 表面上の〈理由・目的など〉.

An Unrelenting U.S. Trade Agenda
The threat of North Korea will not spare China, South Korea or Japan from the United States' ire in the trade realm. The Trump administration is unique in its willingness to compartmentalize the North Korean crisis and its trade agenda. In keeping with the White House's decision to target countries with which the United States has large trade deficits, China, Mexico, South Korea and Japan will remain in Washington's crosshairs in 2018. (As the Trump administration quickly discovered, Germany is not easy to isolate from the rest of the European Union, which protects it somewhat from the White House's punitive trade measures.)

Unrelenting:情け容赦のない, 手加減しない; 断固とした.
spare:難を逃れる, 被害を受けない ≪from≫ 
ire:憤怒, 怒り(anger).
compartmentalize:を区画[区分]する.


世界はますます、国境を乗り越えて、相互に関連していく。アメリカは北朝鮮の問題があり、どうするか迷っている。攻撃してしまうとそのコストは甚大だからだ。また、アメリカは中国、日本、ドイツなどの貿易バランスを是正しようとしている。NAFTAも同様だ。トランプの無茶な政策は議会がそれを阻止するので、それなりに動いてくだろう。アメリカと中国との安全保障における課題は今年は台湾が焦点になるかもしれない。冷戦ほどではないが、各国はアメリカとの関係を冷静に見ていくだろう。

水曜日。正月3日。今日で正月は終わりかな。今日は海野塾があり、新年会がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 06:49コメント(0) 

2018年01月01日

2018年の予測

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast

2018年の予測
Though the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula can't be ruled out, the United States will probably try to avoid a costly preventive strike against the North's nuclear weapons program that would plunge the global economy back into recession.

Overview
Reckoning With North Korea: Though the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula can't be ruled out, the United States will probably try to avoid a costly preventive strike against the North's nuclear weapons program that would plunge the global economy back into recession. Instead, Pyongyang's demonstration of a viable nuclear deterrent next year will spawn a new and more unstable era of containment. 

Reckoning With:〈手強い相手・問題など〉に対処する
ruled out:排除する
viable:〈計画などが〉実現[実行]可能な; 成功の見込める
nuclear deterrent:核抑止力

Hedging All Around: Deepening collaboration between China and Russia will pose a strategic threat to the United States, spurring Washington to try to check the budding partnership by reinforcing its own allies in the Eurasian borderlands. The fluidity of alignments among great powers will increasingly define the international system as Moscow and Beijing balance against each other, just as many U.S. allies hedge their relationships with Washington. 

Hedging:損失を防ぐ策をとる 〜を生け垣で囲う
all around:辺り一帯[一面]に、至る所に、四方(八方)に 全体的に、あらゆる点で
spurring:駆り立てる
budding:始まったばかりの〈関係など〉; 芽生え始めた
reinforcing:強化する
fluidity:流動性, 流動的であること; しなやかさ.
alignments:(政治面などでの)提携

Putting Trade Ties to the Test: The White House will forge ahead with an aggressive trade agenda that targets China, Mexico, South Korea and Japan. While the U.S. trade agreement with South Korea hangs by a thread, congressional and legal checks on U.S. executive power will have a better chance of keeping the North American Free Trade Agreement intact. The United States' increasing unilateralism in trade will expose the weaknesses of the World Trade Organization, but it won't shatter the bloc or trigger a trade war.

forge:(急速に)ピッチを上げる[上げて進む](ahead)
hangs: hang by a thread 危険にさらされて[ひんして]いる、危機一髪である
shatter:〈ガラスなど〉を(一瞬にして)粉々に割る[砕く], 粉砕する

Revisiting Iran: North Korea's nuclear weapons achievements will fuel a hard-line U.S. policy toward Iran, jeopardizing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. As the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel close ranks against Iran, proxy battles across the Middle East will intensify. But Iran won't walk away from its nuclear deal with the West. Russia will nevertheless exploit the tension mounting between Washington and Tehran, as well as its advantage on the Syrian battlefield, to expand its influence in the Middle East at the United States' expense. 

Managing an Oil Exit Strategy: Major oil producers hope to stay on track to rebalance the global oil market in 2018. As the expiration of their pact to limit production and draw down inventories approaches, compliance will slip among OPEC and non-OPEC participants alike. Even so, Saudi Arabia and Russia may be able to work together to counteract an expected uptick in U.S. shale output. 

Exit Strategy:軍事的もしくは経済的な損害が続く状況から損失・被害を最小限にして撤退する戦略
expiration:(期間・期限の)満了, 終結
draw down:金額・利益など〉を減じる; 〈蓄えなど〉を食いつぶす.
compliance:【規則・要請などに】従う[応じる]こと, 承諾
slip:〈人・能力などが〉衰える; 〈状況などが〉悪化する(back); 〈人気・緊張感などが〉低下する
counteract:(反作用で)〈(悪)影響・病状など〉を中和する, 阻止[防止]する, 和らげる; …に逆らう.
uptick:(急激な)向上[増加] 

The Next Phase of China's Reform: Chinese President Xi Jinping will take on entrenched local interests as the central government tackles the next phase of its reform agenda: wealth redistribution. A slowing property sector and corporate debt maturities will compound financial pressures on China's northeastern rust belt in 2018, but Beijing has the tools it needs to prevent a systemic debt crisis. 

entrenched:〈意志・習慣などが〉強固な, 変わることのない
debt maturities:負債満期
compound:〈良くない物・事が〉〈問題・困難な状況など〉をさらに複雑にする, さらに悪化させる

France Finds Its Voice: France will find itself on more equal footing with Germany next year as it defends Southern European interests and debates eurozone reform. The possibility of a more Euroskeptic government emerging in Italy will send jitters through financial markets, but the country won't leave the currency zone. 

equal footing:対等な立場[地位]
defend:〜を守る[防御する]
jitters:神経質[過敏], そわそわ, 不安(感)

Populism Persists in Latin America: Popular frustration with the political establishment will make for a more competitive election season in three of Latin America's biggest economies: Mexico, Brazil and Colombia. Should a populist president take office in Mexico, Congress will block him from enacting any sweeping policy changes. Meanwhile, Brazil and Argentina will have a narrow window in which to implement domestic reforms and push ahead with trade talks in the Common Market of the South before political constraints start piling up against them. 

Persists:〈望ましくないこと[状態]が〉いつまでも続く, 持続する, 存続[残存]する
sweeping: sweeping changes 大改革

今年は北朝鮮は膠着したままだ。中国とロシアの関係が密接になるので、アメリカはその同盟国との関係を強化していく。アメリカはイランに対して、サウジ、イスラエルとの関係を強化して対応しても、イランはたじろぐことなないし、中東の地盤を強固にしていく。世界の石油市場はサウジとロシアが組んで、アメリカのシェールオイルに対抗して市場の均衡を保とうとするだろう。習近平は富の再配分を行い、不良債権に対してはそれなりの対策を講じる。フランスはドイツと組んで、南ヨーロッパとの利害関係を調整し、ユーロ改革を推進する。イタリアはユーロにとどまる。南米はメキシコ、ブラジル、コロンビアの選挙があるが、大勢に変化はない。

火曜日。今日は2日で、正月だ。我が家は相変わらず、平常通りだ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:34コメント(0) 
livedoor プロフィール
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
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