2017年12月26日

アメリカはなぜWTOを警戒するのか。

Dec 14, 2017 | 21:56 GMT
Why the United States Is Wary of the WTO

アメリカはなぜWTOを警戒するのか。

Trade representatives gather in Buenos Aires, Argentina, for the 11th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization.

Trade representatives gather in Buenos Aires, Argentina, for the 11th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization.

It can be difficult to separate the important from unimportant on any given day. Reflections mean to do exactly that — by thinking about what happened today, we can consider what might happen tomorrow. 

on any given day:どの日(で)も、来る日も来る日も
Reflections:熟慮

The end of the Cold War brought about a different view of free trade in the United States. Through almost 50 years of negotiations, the United States spearheaded the establishment of the World Trade Organization as Washington sought to shape the global trading regime — and the trading order in the West — as a bulwark against communism. But times have changed, and amid a frontal assault by the United States this week, the WTO's 11th Ministerial Conference came to an undignified end Dec. 13 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 

spearheaded:〈攻撃・事業・運動など〉の先頭[陣頭]に立つ.
bulwark:防波堤
frontal:a frontal attack 〘軍〙正面攻撃
Ministerial:大臣の; 内閣の, 政府の; 行政上の.
undignified:威厳のない; みっともない.

Since the founding of the WTO and the signing of NAFTA, free trade has polarized the United States. Democrats have pushed for stronger standards in agreements, while Republicans have fought to link trade to national security. However, as the steadfast promotion of free trade became a toxic political liability, President Donald Trump managed to merge the Republican foreign policy approach with traditional Democratic ideals. And while his policy moves may be an overcorrection, the underlying U.S. political tensions are real. 

polarized:を分極化[分裂]させる
national security:国の安全、国家安全保障
steadfast:不動の, 揺るがない, しっかりした
overcorrection:修正[矯正]のし過ぎ、過剰修正[矯正]

The new global order on trade is also a far cry from the one defined by the Cold War. Virtually every country has adopted a number of free-market principles. The Russian economy is mostly state-run, but the country has cherry-picked Western market standards to create a hybrid economy. In China the private sector now employs more than four Chinese citizens for every one working in the public sector — the private sector also contributes over 60 percent of GDP growth. But as non-Western economies such as China's begin producing more valuable goods, they present an economic threat to the industries that Western economies still dominate, such as the manufacturing of high-end semiconductor chips. Virtually every country has adopted some number of free market principles. 

far cry:〜から程遠い
Virtually:ほとんど, ほぼ(almost); 実質的には, 事実上, 実際上(practically)

This has led to a merger of national security and economic policy in the United States and the West. Free trade policy is now defined by the growth of the hybrid economies of China and others, by the threats to strategic industries in Western countries and by China's alleged disregard for its commitment to market economy principles under WTO guidelines. Indeed, when U.S national security adviser H.R. McMaster gave a Dec. 12 preview of Trump's new national security strategy, he specifically cited China's economic strategy as a threat to the global system and connected trade and economic policy to national security. 

The U.S. pressure on China has been growing under the surface for quite some time. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has long criticized the WTO for lacking the tools to force China to follow market economy principles on the financing of state-owned enterprises (SOE), the protection of intellectual property and the heavy state influence on domestic pricing. He has argued for the United States to go around the WTO to pressure China economically, if needed. That thinking can be seen in the U.S. investigation under Section 301 of China's intellectual property practices. 

go around the country taking photographs:全国を写真を撮って回る.

The harsh rhetoric about the lack of reform, combined with the U.S. tendency to lose cases brought against it, have rightfully worried many that the ultimate U.S. goal might be the end of the organization. Of course, actually pulling out of the WTO would bring on dozens of domestic legal challenges and could make U.S. exports to countries without a free-trade agreement subject to far higher tariffs. At the conference, Lighthizer pointed out that the WTO has been bogged down by litigation when it should be pursuing negotiations on trade and seeking concessions from countries such as China. 

lose a case:〔裁判で〕敗訴する
rightfully:当然ながら.
bogged:【困難な状況・問題などに】陥る, 行き詰まる, とらわれる(down)

Reforming the WTO, however, is a tall order. One of the organization's defining features is that decisions must be unanimous, meaning every country essentially has veto power. If the United States wanted fundamental change, all the 163 other members would need to be on board. This is one of the reasons that the Doha Round of negotiations have struggled since they began 16 years ago. 

tall order:《a 〜》難しい注文、手に負えない仕事、無理難題

Perhaps one of the more interesting outcomes of the Buenos Aires conference was a statement from the United States, the European Union and Japan that they would work trilaterally — through the WTO and other bodies — to eliminate "unfair market distorting and protectionist practices by third countries." They singled out overcapacity in certain sectors, forced technology transfers and state subsidies as a problem, all in a statement not too subtly aimed at Beijing. 

singled out:を1人[1つ]だけ選ぶ, えり抜く
subtly:巧妙[機敏]に; 精妙[複雑]に; ずるく, 油断無く.

Such a joint effort could certainly cause China to capitulate on some aspects of their demands, but the United States almost certainly had to assure the Europeans that its moves were not geared to bringing down the WTO to get them on board. This broad alliance is not new and has been growing for a while: all three countries face the same systemic risk from China's economic growth. Indeed, Washington, Brussels and Tokyo notably collaborated when all three simultaneously brought cases against China's export restrictions on rare earth metals and other rare metals in 2015. 

capitulate:抵抗を止める, 【反対していた事などを】受け入れる
geared: 適合する, 合わせてある
Systemic risk:1つの金融機関が倒産などから決済不能となった場合に、決済関係を通じて他の金融機関にもその影響が及び連鎖的に決済不能を引き起こし、金融システム全体の機能が失われてしまう危険性のこと。
notably:特に

The biggest issue, a giant one for all those involved, is the ongoing WTO cases that China brought against the United States and the European Union over its continued treatment as a nonmarket economy, which gives the United States and the European Union greater freedom to enact anti-dumping and countervailing duties on China in sectors where there is a heavy state hand. 

countervailing :(ほかに)対抗できるほどの, 相殺するような〈力・意見など〉.

Because those measures are the backbone of current trade remedies and sanctions against China, its classification as a market economy is something that the European Union and the United States are ardently against, and are coordinating their actions as a result. But if they lose their respective cases, both are going to be in a position where they will want to pressure China to make some sort of change. 

ardently:熱心に, 熱烈に.

Actually pulling out of the WTO would bring on dozens of domestic legal challenges and could make U.S. exports to countries without a free-trade agreement subject to far higher tariffs. 

pulling out of :やめる, 離脱する, 【事業などから】撤退する

Ironically, China often complies with WTO rulings. Its strategy has long been one of compliance on the surface, because as it undergoes a delicate rebalancing at home, it doesn't want to add an external threat to its place in the WTO. Added pressure from the United States and the European Union could compel China to come to the table and to negotiate a new treatment. 

complies:comply with the law [safety standard] 法に従う[安全基準に準拠する].

One possible outcome finds some middle ground: China accepting less than full market economy status, while the European Union and the United States concede that the state's influence is weaker in some Chinese sectors — agreeing to treat them as market economy ones. China would most likely love this arrangement because many of its more important sectors are increasingly privately led. 

concede:認める

One of the most interesting takeaways, however, may be the fact that as China moves into a new economic paradigm in which it is more market-oriented, a rules-based trade system becomes far more important if the United States, or anyone else, wants to justify trade action against China. That system would define the conditions that China must meet to qualify for market economy status. Nonetheless, the winds of free trade have shifted, and not just in the United States. What we are now seeing is global institutions being forced to catch up. 

takeaways:取り[持ち]出された(物).

WTOが163ヶ国全一致で合議する仕組みはナンセンスで、ドーハ会議もまとまらなかったのはそこにある。こうしたWTOを改革するのは不可能だ。かと言って、欧米が今までの中国の対外ビジネスをそのまま看過することは出来ない。WTOを無視することも出来ない。しかしながら、最近、中国は市場開放をしだしたので、然るべき世界の組織があれば、今までの課題を克服できるかもしれない。

火曜日。あっという間に今年も終わりだ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 08:28コメント(0) 

2017年12月24日

2018年は市場に何が起ころうとしているのか。 投資家たちは極めて楽観的だ。しかし、2人のアナリストは彼らが大きなリスクを無視しているのかもしれないと危惧している。

What 2018 has in store for the markets
Investors are very optimistic. But two analysts think they may be ignoring a big risk
Dec 18th 2017by Buttonwood

2018年は市場に何が起ころうとしているのか。
投資家たちは極めて楽観的だ。しかし、2人のアナリストは彼らが大きなリスクを無視しているのかもしれないと危惧している。

I don't know what is in store for me. : 私にはどんな未来が待っているのか、知る由もない。/自分の将来がどうなるのか分からない。



WHAT is in store for economies and markets in 2018? Around this time of year, a large number of analysts and fund managers are giving their views. Among the most interesting and thoughtful approaches can be found at Absolute Strategy Research (ASR), an independent group founded by David Bowers and Ian Harnett. 

ASR adds extra depth to its analysis by contrasting its own views with those of the consensus. To do so, the group polled 229 asset allocators, managing around $6trn of assets, for their views on the outlook for economies and markets. They found a groundswell of optimism; the probability of equities being higher by the end of 2018 was 61%, and that shares will beat bonds is 70%. The allocators think there is only a 27% chance of a global recession. And they are not worried about the prospect of the Federal Reserve pushing up interest rates. 

asset allocation:資産(運用)構成,資産配分,アセット・アロケーション((資産運用においてトータル・ファンドに組み込む各アセット・クラス(資産別,例えば債券/株式/外貨建証券等)の組入比率を決定するプロセスである.どの資産にどれだけの比率で資金を投入するかをasset allocationという.目的は,特定のアセット・クラスに集中することによるリスクを回避し安定したリターンの確保にある.基本的には“分散投資の原理”に基づくリスク最小化/リターン最大化の戦略である.asset allocationの戦略目標は,変化する市場条件の中での付加価値の創造にある.先物futuresも指標連動型ファンドindex fundsも用いられる.なおasset allocationに必ず出てくるcashは文字通りの現金ではなく,米国では財務省短期債券T-billを意味する。

groundswell:(世論・支持などの)高まり; (地震・嵐による)大波.
optimism:楽天[楽観]主義; ≪…に関して≫ 楽観的であること, 楽観的傾向 
beat bond:債権にまさる

There are some disconnects within the consensus view. The first is that investors expect volatility (as measured by the Vix) to rise next year. Usually, equities struggle in such circumstances. The second disconnect is between their views on the business cycle and those on the stockmarket; since last year, their optimism about the former has reduced while their bullishness about the latter has increased. A third disconnect is between their views on high-yield or junk bonds and equities. Normally, the two asset classes perform well at the same time. But investors are unenthusiastic about junk, preferring the debt issued by emerging market governments. 

disconnects:人・考え・行動の間の】相違
struggle:struggle to shore どうにか海岸に達する
bullishness:〘株式〙〈相場が〉上向きの, 強気の
business cycle:〈米〉景気循環

Messrs Bowers and Harnett think investors may be caught out by a slowdown in China. They are not forecasting anything dramatic; growth of 6.1% rather than the expected 6.7%. But that will drag down global growth to 3.3% from 3.5%. In addition, interest rates may rise a bit faster in America than investors expect. David Bowers says it is the “second derivative” that often drives markets—not the change, but the change in the rate of change. 

caught out by :【予期せぬ出来事・悪天候などで】窮地に陥る 
derivative:デリバティブ〘債券・株式などから派生した金融商品〙

ASR points to the tightening of monetary policy that has occurred in China this year in the form of higher interest rates and slower money growth; given the normal lags, this will have its main impact in 2018. Signs have already emerged in the form of house prices in Beijing and Shanghai which were lower in October than they were a year ago. American and European companies have stepped up their capital spending given the signs of stronger global growth but they may be disappointed by the outcome in 2018. 

lag:〈景気などが〉沈滞する.

The other big worry is longer-term. The long era of quantitative easing (QE) has caused investors to look at asset classes in a different way. They have been deprived of their traditional source of portfolio income; government bond yields have been driven down to historic lows and have been locked away on central-bank balance sheets. Equities have been used as a source of income instead, with companies generating cash in the form of dividends and share buy-backs. And investors have sought to juice up their portfolios with alternative assets such as private equity. But these assets are illiquid, and backed by a lot of debt. So there may be a nasty shock in the next crisis when investors try to realise those illiquid assets. 

deprived:deprive the king of his power 王から権力を奪い取る
lock away:しまい込む
buy-backs:自社株買い
juice up:物事をよりおもしろくする, 活気づける; 強力にする.
private equity:未公開株式
nasty:a nasty cold ひどい風邪.

来年の景気だが、60〜70%は好転すると視ていて、景気後退は27%が予測している。中国が足を引っ張るかもしれない。中国での金融引締めがあるからだ。アメリカの長期的な金融緩和は企業が自社株買いに走るだろうが、未公開株式への投資は流動性がないので、いざという時には問題が起こるだろう。

Why is America more tolerant of inequality than many rich countries?
Ignorance about the scale of the problem is part of the answer
Dec 18th 2017by C.K. | WASHINGTON, DC

アメリカは多くの富裕国に比べて不平等に寛容なのは何故だろうか。
問題の大きさについて知らないことがその答えの一部だ。



MOST Americans are unenthusiastic about Republicans’ efforts to reward the richest with the biggest tax cuts. In polls taken on the eve of a vote on the government's tax bill in the Senate on December 2nd only between a quarter and a third of voters supported the plan. But in general Americans seem more willing than the inhabitants of other rich countries to tolerate inequality. 

willing:Are you willing that he (⦅主に英⦆should) be our leader? 彼が我々のリーダーになるのに異存はありませんか.

Data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests that America is a relatively unequal country and that the government does comparatively little to redress the balance. The most common measure of inequality, the gini coefficient, takes a value between zero (if everyone earned exactly the same) and one (if all income were earned by one person). America’s gini before taxes and transfers was 0.47 compared with the OECD average of 0.43. After taxes and transfers, America’s gini falls to 0.39. The OECD average is 0.31. In 2014, taxes and transfers reduced American inequality by a mere 18%; this compares with 25% in Britain, 29% in Germany and 34% in France. 

redress:〈間違い・差別など〉を正す, 是正する, 改善する.
transfers:資金移動
日本:累進課税や各種社会保障給付など所得再分配が実施された後のジニ係数は0.3759

Americans appear to be less averse to inequality than citizens of other rich countries. Lars Osberg and Insa Bechert of Dalhousie University found that the most inequality-averse 10% of Americans resemble the inequality-averse in other countries, favouring an earnings ratio between CEOs and unskilled labourers of about two to one. From there the gap widens: the most inequality-tolerant Americans see the ideal ratio as 50 to one; compared with 24 to one amongst the most inequality-tolerant in Britain. In Sweden the figure is five to one. 

averse:≪…を≫ 嫌って, ≪…に≫ 気が進まなくて, 反対して
resemble:似ている

Why the difference? One reason may be that Americans don’t realise how unequal incomes are. In common with the inhabitants of other wealthy countries, most Americans believe there is too much inequality. But they underestimate just how much of it there is. The average American puts the current ratio of CEO to unskilled worker pay at thirty-to-one; their preference is for about seven-to-one. But the actual CEO-unskilled wage ratio in America is 354 to one. 

Ignorance about the scale of inequality is a global phenomenon. In a new paper in Economics and Politics Vladimir Gimpelson and Daniel Triesman write that across countries there is only a tenuous relationship between (post-transfer) inequality and perceived inequality. And research suggests that those who have a more realistic understanding of inequality worry more about it. 

tenuous:〈関係・つながりなどが〉薄い

Michael Norton and Sorapop Kiatpongsan of Harvard and Chulalongkorn Universities found that those who strongly agree with the idea that differences in incomes are too large estimate the CEO-worker wage gap at 12.5 to one. Those who strongly disagree estimate the gap at 6.7-to-one. There is broad agreement about the “ideal” income gap between these groups (which ranges between four to one and five to one); the difference is over what they believe the ratio actually is. 

A second reason Americans may differ in their view of inequality is that they seem not to trust the government to fix the problem—or to believe that this is part of its job. The researchers from Dalhousie University suggest that American respondents tend to be more sceptical about the role played by government in reducing inequality. And when Jan Zilinsky at the University of Chicago randomly exposed a sample of Americans to information about inequality in America, it made them depressed about the issue but no more likely to support cash transfers to the poor. Most Americans may dislike a tax bill that increases inequality. But that does not mean they would support one that did the opposite. 

アメリカの人たちは所得の不平等に鈍感のようだ。彼らが実際にCEOと一般社員との給与格差は30倍と考えていて、理想は7倍だと思っているようだが、現実は354倍だ。かと言って、課税による不平等の是正を肯定しているかというとそうでもないようだ。アメリカのジニ係数は0.39だが、日本は0.38であまり変わらない。日本も意外と所得格差が大きいことがわかったが、実感がない。

月曜日。今日はいつもの昼食会がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 19:06コメント(0) 

企業機密が正面玄関から出ていくのをやめる方法

Dec 14, 2017 | 08:00 GMT
Stopping Company Secrets From Walking Out the Front Door
By Scott Stewart

企業機密が正面玄関から出ていくのをやめる方法

While hackers can pose a serious threat to a business's sensitive information, the well-placed insider can do tremendous damage by stealing proprietary secrets.

As threats of computer intrusions proliferate, many companies have rightly focused their efforts on fending them off. But few train their staffs on how to spot or respond to other techniques used to steal company secrets, including those exploited by employees with inside access. This topic came up during a recent discussion that my old friend and Stratfor colleague Fred Burton and I participated in for a webinar produced for Stratfor's Threat Lens site called "Beyond the Cyber Espionage Threat." In the course of our presentation, we noted how employees who steal a company's intellectual crown jewels can be driven by a range of motives. While money is often the goal, other factors, including satisfying egos or opposing a company's activity, can push employees to bite the hand that feeds them. 

intrusions: 侵入
proliferate:急増する
spot:見つける I spotted a rare bird in the backyard. 裏庭で珍しい鳥を発見した
webinar :オンラインセミナー.
Don't feed stray cats with household scraps.:食事の食べ残しを野良猫にあげないでください

Shortly after the Dec. 6 webinar ended, news came out of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California that indictments had been unsealed charging four former senior employees of Applied Materials with stealing trade secrets. Another story of industrial espionage surfaced in the news media two days later. The Idaho Statesman reported on two cases that involved alleged attempts by Chinese competitors of Idaho-based chipmaker Micron to steal trade secrets with the help of employees from two of its subsidiaries. Taken together, these cases provide an interesting window into the profound threat that insiders pose to intellectual property. 

indictments:起訴
have a profound effect [influence] on :に多大な影響をもつ.

The Threat Posed by Entrepreneurial Insiders
The indictments in the Applied Materials case detailed activities that the four executives were alleged to have engaged in since 2012. They each had been at the company for about two decades: 
Liang Chen was corporate vice president and general manager for Applied Materials' Alternative Energy Products division. He had worked for Applied Materials since 1995.
Donald Olgado was the managing director of engineering in Applied Materials' Product Business Group. He had worked at the company since 1992.
Wei-Yung Hsu was the vice president and general manager of Applied Materials' Semiconductor LED Division. He was hired in 2000.
Robert Ewald was director of energy and environmental systems in Applied Materials' Alternative Energy Products Division. He also joined the company in 2000.

pose no threat to humans:人間に何の脅威も与えない.

All were charged with conspiring to steal proprietary methods that Applied Materials had developed for the high-volume manufacturing of semiconductor wafers used in lighting and in electronic devices such as smartphones and flat-screen televisions. The alleged theft included not only blueprints for machines and facilities, but also lists of materials, including information on sourcing, recipes for chemicals used in the processes and even the marketing materials and plans for these chips. 

lighting :(部屋・建物・街路などの)照明, 照明器具

The indictment charges that beginning in September 2012, the defendants conspired to steal information from Applied Materials in order to establish a new company called Envision, which would be based in China and the United States. According to the indictment, the group used personal email accounts to plan the Envision launch and discuss what information they would need to steal to do so. They then allegedly obtained files containing proprietary information while also directing subordinates, none of whom have been accused of wrongdoing, to gather some of the information for them. The indictment said that the executives uploaded the stolen materials to a Google Drive account and that during that process, the conspirators even discussed their progress on transferring the documents. The indictments also quoted them discussing their efforts to find investors in China to fund Envision. 

defendants:被告人
allegedly :伝えられるところでは(…ということらしい), (真偽のほどはわからないが)申し立てによれば,
proprietary:所有主の〈権利など〉; 所有主のような〈態度など〉.

At this point, it looks as if the conspirators may have been motivated by greed and only sought Chinese funding after having hatched their plan, rather than, as has happened in similar cases, recruited by a Chinese business to steal trade secrets. However, it is not unusual for Chinese investors to fund a company based on stolen proprietary information. In January 2016, five employees of pharmaceutical manufacturer GlaxoSmithKline were indicted on charges that they tried to use stolen trade secrets to attract Chinese investors to a company they had established in China called Renopharma. 

a man driven by greed for money:金の亡者.
(much [highly]) sought after:〈人・物が〉求められている, 需要がある, 引っぱりだこである
hatched:hatch a plot 陰謀を企てる.

And in October, a former employee of the Chemours Co., the world's largest maker of sodium cyanide, was indicted on charges related to an attempt to use purloined information to win Chinese backing to establish a competitor based in China. As in the Applied Materials case, these also involved the alleged use of personal email accounts to transmit critical information outside the company. 

sodium cyanide:シアン化ナトリウム
purloined:(…を)盗む(steal); (…を)許可なく借りる.

When Insiders Are Poached by the Competition
The Micron cases appear to have followed a different path from the Applied Materials indictments. Criminal charges in the first case, filed in Taiwan in 2016 and in the Northern District of California on Dec. 5, involve Stephen Chen, the former chairman of Micron Memory Taiwan, a Micron subsidiary that produces dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips used in computers and other electronics. Chen left Micron's Taiwanese subsidiary in 2015 to take a job with United Microelectronics Corp. 

Poached:〈鳥・獣・魚〉を密猟[密漁]する.

The Taiwanese indictment alleges that Chen recruited two high-ranking employees of Micron Memory to steal information, which they downloaded onto flash drives before quitting the company to take lucrative positions with United Microelectronics. That company then entered into an agreement with the China-based Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit Co. to produce DRAM chips. The indictment charges that United Microelectronics had not produced DRAM chips before entering into the agreement with Jinhua and that the stolen information would allow Jinhua to become a Micron Memory competitor and a serious force in the DRAM market. 

The second case involving Micron that was detailed in the newspaper report occurred in 2016 when five high-level employees from Inotera Memories Inc., a Taiwanese company Micron had purchased, resigned to take jobs with the Chinese company Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd. They were indicted on charges of illegally passing trade secrets in Taiwan in October 2017. The group is alleged to have taken proprietary DRAM information with them as they left. Interestingly, the Idaho Statesman notes that Tsinghua Unigroup had attempted to purchase Micron in 2015 but dropped its bid after the U.S. government raised national security concerns over the implications of such a sale. 

It appears that Tsinghua was able to acquire the DRAM manufacturing technology far more cheaply without buying all of Micron. The acquisition of Inotera by Micron, an American company, may also have made the decision by the Taiwanese employees to jump ship easier, as they likely did not feel much loyalty to Micron or to the company’s leadership. 

jump ship easier:転職する

How Can The Theft of Ideas Be Stopped?
As illustrated by these cases, an insider can pose a significant threat. Some cases of proprietary information theft have cost companies upward of billions of dollars. These staggering losses have made a system that will identify insider threats a sort of holy grail for many companies — especially if such a system could do so in a nondiscriminatory fashion. While much effort is being put into developing a comprehensive turnkey system that roots out insider threats, the quest may well prove to be impossible. 

staggering:〈金額・規模などが〉驚くべき, 衝撃的な, 信じられないほどの.
holy grail:(キリストが最後の晩餐で用いた)聖杯(the Grail). 価値があるが見つけられないもの.
non-discriminatory:差別のない、無差別な
turnkey system:ターンキー方式、完全[一括]請負契約◆システムや設備をキー(鍵)を回すだけですぐに使える状態で発注者に納入する契約方式。

However, some interesting approaches to the problem are being developed, including the use of machine intelligence to watch for changes in an employee's pattern of access and work using company computer systems. Is Employee X suddenly downloading material irrelevant to his position or information that he's never used in the past? Is Employee Y asking colleagues in other parts of the company to send her documents she has no apparent legitimate need to access? 

apparent:あきらかに
legitimate:妥当な

Is Employee Z copying sensitive company information to an external drive or uploading it to the cloud? Obviously, such patterns could be indicators of skullduggery, but since there could also be logical and innocent explanations for such changes in behavior, a degree of human investigation would still be required. 

skullduggery:いんちき, 不正な行為.

One problem for many companies is that they have not undertaken audits of sensitive information to categorize what is critical to keep secret from what is merely sensitive. Such categories would make it easier to protect the critically important information by limiting access to employees who have a true need to know. For instance, the secrets could be protected by storing them in a stand-alone or segregated computer system that limited the ability for them to be easily copied or uploaded to a third-party site. 

sensitive:(事態・話題などが)細心の注意を要する, 微妙な

Court records in the Applied Materials case indicate that the alleged conspirators ran into a roadblock when the company suddenly disabled users' abilities to download information from company computers onto flash drives. This could be an indication that someone had gotten wind of the scheme, or perhaps it was just a routine IT administrative change. 

roadblock:傷害
get wind of:〔計略・気配・うわさなど〕をかぎつける

But aside from technical countermeasures such as disabling USB ports or prohibiting access to virtual private networks outside the company, nontechnical approaches can be used to mitigate the insider threat. Perhaps the simplest countermeasure — and one that is often overlooked — is employee education. Co-workers, managers, subordinates and others who are trained in what to look for are often in the best position to notice changes in a fellow employee's behavior that might indicate a brewing problem. 

brewing:There's trouble brewing between them. 彼らの間にもめごとが起こりかけている.

But beyond teaching them how to watch for signs of industrial espionage, employees and managers must also be trained to understand the nature of the threat as well as the types of information considered critical and why protecting it is important. Finally, employees must get the message that industrial espionage is not just a problem for other people to worry about, but that it represents a threat to their employer's future (and their jobs) and that they are the first line of defense. In the end, after all, insider threats are a problem that must be addressed holistically, not just by corporate security, the information technology team or the legal department. 

holistically:総体的に

Indeed, just as in a successful campaign to prevent workplace violence, all parts of a company must work together to combat the industrial espionage threat, and company leadership must ensure that the corporate culture encourages and empowers employees to report suspicions and provides them with an avenue to do so. 

explore [pursue] another [every possible] avenue:別の[あらゆる]方法を探る[追求する]

Scott Stewart supervises Stratfor's analysis of terrorism and security issues. Before joining Stratfor, he was a special agent with the U.S. State Department for 10 years and was involved in hundreds of terrorism investigations. 

アメリカでは企業機密が盗まれることが多く起こっている。Applied Materialsのケースでは経営者レベルの人達が企業の機密を盗んで、別の会社を起こそうとしていた。こうしたケースをどのように阻止するのかは簡単ではない。手っ取り早く最良の方法は社員を教育することだ。そうすることによって、問題を社員の中から指摘させることが可能となる。後は従業員が今までとは違った行動で情報にアクセスしてきたら、それを把握する仕組みも考えられる。

日曜日。今日は母親の見舞いだ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 08:54コメント(0) 

2017年12月22日

Jacob Zumaは一日で、2つの訴訟に負けた。 裁判官たちは南アフリカの追い詰められた大統領に対して判決を出し続けている。

Jacob Zuma loses two court cases in one day
Judges keep finding against South Africa’s embattled president
Dec 14th 2017 | JOHANNESBURG

Jacob Zumaは一日で、2つの訴訟に負けた。
裁判官たちは南アフリカの追い詰められた大統領に対して判決を出し続けている。



THE wheels of justice turn slowly, but probably not slowly enough for South Africa’s scandal-plagued president. Jacob Zuma’s court dates have piled up in recent years, along with seemingly endless appeals in what his allies have termed his “Stalingrad strategy” of contesting every judgment, no matter the futility. On December 13th, in the latest damning decision, a high court ordered Mr Zuma to set up a judicial inquiry into allegations of “state capture” against him, his son Duduzane and their friends. A few hours earlier the court ruled in a separate decision that Mr Zuma had abused the judicial process by trying to block an anti-corruption ombudsman, Thuli Madonsela, from releasing a report on state capture in late 2016. It ordered that Mr Zuma must personally pay the legal fees in both cases. 

plagued :苦しむ
futility:取るに足らない物事; 軽薄な言動; むだな行為.
damning:〈証拠などが〉 【人の】有罪を示す
judicial inquiry:審問
ombudsman:オンブズマン, 苦情処理担当官(⦅英⦆Parliamentary Commissioner; ⦅男女共用⦆ombudsperson)〘政府・公的機関などへの市民の苦情を中立的立場で調査・処理を行う公務員〙
legal fee:弁護士費用、裁判費用

It is not clear whether Mr Zuma will appeal even these, as he did another judgment a week earlier in which the courts fired his appointee as head of the national prosecutors’ office and took away the president’s power to name a replacement. The judges thought that since Mr Zuma faces 783 charges of corruption, he might not be entirely neutral in the matter. Instead they said the task should fall to the deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa. 

appointee:(財産権の)被指定人.
prosecutor:検事

Mr Zuma’s lawyers have proved adept at dragging out his defence, but at some point the appeals must end. Mr Zuma now has 30 days to establish the commission into allegations of state capture and the judge in charge of it must be nominated by the respected chief justice, Mogoeng Mogoeng. Even Mr Zuma’s own party, the African National Congress (ANC), recommended in a statement that he heed the rulings “without delay in the interest of our country”. 

adept:熟練[熟達]して
dragging:〈行事・会議など〉をだらだらと長引かせる(out).
heed:〈忠告・警告など〉に注意を払う, …に耳を傾けて従う, …を傾聴する.

South Africa’s courts have gained a reputation for fierce independence during Mr Zuma’s eight years as president. Their decisions are increasingly scathing. 

fierce:fierce loyalty [opposition] 強烈な忠誠心[猛反対]
scathing:手厳しい, 容赦ない, 批判的な

Dunstan Mlambo, a senior judge, described Mr Zuma’s attempts to block the state-capture inquiry as “ill-advised and reckless”, and said the president’s conduct “falls far short of the expectation on him as of the head of state to support institutions of democracy”. 

State capture: a type of systemic political corruption in which private interests significantly influence a state's decision-making processes to their own advantage. The term 'state capture' was first used by the World Bank (c 2000) to describe the situation in central Asian countries making the transition from Soviet communism. Specifically it was applied to situations where small corrupt groups used their influence over government officials to appropriate government decision making in order to strengthen their own economic positions; these groups would later become known as oligarchs. Allegations of state capture have led to protests against the government in Bulgaria in 2013-2014 and Romania in 2017, and have caused an ongoing controversy in South Africa which started in 2016.
ill-advised:思慮の足りない、軽率な、浅はかな
reckless:向こう見ずな, 無謀な,
fall short of:〔ある標準・期待などに〕達しない、及ばない、届かない、不十分である

Mr Zuma’s continued litigation to hinder the release of Ms Madonsela’s report was “unreasonable”, the decision said. It also raised the possibility of “perjury” related to the president’s excuse for inconsistencies in his statements (Mr Zuma had blamed a typing error). In response, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) said it would file a criminal complaint for perjury against Mr Zuma (but like the mountain of other such complaints filed by the DA, this is unlikely to go anywhere for now). 

litigation:訴訟
hinder:妨害する
perjury:偽証; 偽証罪
complaint:告訴
for now:今(のところ)は, これからしばらくは

Mr Zuma’s latest defeats provide even more reasons for his ANC comrades to push him aside when the ruling party meets near Johannesburg to elect new leaders this weekend. Mr Zuma will step down after two terms as party boss (his term as South Africa’s president ends in 2019 after a national election). He has backed his ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, to succeed him as party leader and its presidential candidate in 2019, perhaps hoping that she will shield him from prosecution. Those who think South Africa has had enough Zumas for now will probably back the frontrunner in this leadership race: Mr Ramaphosa. 

ズマ大統領の汚職案件は783件もある。彼は元奥さんのドラミニ・ズマさんを次期大統領にしようとしていたが、ANCの選挙で副大統領のラマポーザ氏が当選した。ただ、ズマの影響力が未だに強力なことから、はたして、彼がズマの影響力を断ち切れいるかどうかはわからない。いずれにしても、流れは変わるだろう。それにしても司法がここまで権力をもているのは驚きだ。

In the name of democracy, Venezuela bans the opposition
Yet Nicolas Maduro’s dirty tricks cannot disguise his regime’s failures
Dec 16th 2017 | CARACAS

民主主義の名のもとに、ベネズエラは野党を禁止する。
けれどもニコラス・マデューロの汚い策略は彼の政権の失敗を隠すことは出来ない。



“LET us get ready for 2018,” boomed Nicolas Maduro as he hailed the “third great victory of the Venezuelan people”. The president was gloating over a vote on December 10th, in which his United Socialist Party, which has looted and misgoverned the country into economic ruin, bagged more than 90% of the country’s mayoral contests. 

boomed:…を景気づかせる; …の人気をあおる.
hailed:hail the winner 勝利者を歓迎する.
gloating:満足げに眺める; ≪…に≫ ほくそ笑む
looted:〈金・物など〉を略奪する
bagged:〈得点〉を取る.
mayoral contest:《a 〜》市長[町長]選(挙)

It was a hollow triumph. The three main opposition parties fielded no candidates, having reasonably called the voting a sham. (The other “victories” were equally flawed: the creation in July of a rubber-stamp “constituent assembly” to replace an elected legislature, and a ballot for governors in October.) 

hollow:hollow promises から約束.
fielded :〈候補者〉を擁立する
sham:イカサマ
constituent assembly:憲法制定[改正]会議
rubber-stamp:深く考えずに判を押す

Dizzy with these dubious successes, Mr Maduro’s eye is now on a bigger contest, next year’s presidential poll. He has not formally declared, but Tareck El Aissami, the vice-president, says his boss hopes for another six-year term. 

Dizzy:めまいがする, 目が回る, 
dubious:信頼できない, いかがわしい, 好ましくない
contest:競争

With that in mind, the regime is now determined to knock out rivals. Mr Maduro has declared that the three parties that shunned the mayoral ballot have disqualified themselves from all future elections. “They will disappear from the political map,” he snapped. The constituent assembly, which is itself a one-party institution, has backed this punitive act. It declared, absurdly, that this view reflected its belief in multi-party politics. 

shunned:避ける
snapped:snap impatiently at a waiter いらいらしてウェイターにどなる.
punitive:刑罰[懲罰]の(ための)〈方法など〉.きびしい, 過酷な〈税金など〉.
absurdly:驚くほどに; ばからしいほど; うそのように; 〖文修飾〗ばかげたことに

The ban may be partly superfluous. Leopoldo Lopez, who leads one opposition party, Voluntad Popular, is under house arrest. Henrique Capriles, who leads another, Primero Justicia, has been barred from seeking office for 15 years, supposedly because of “administrative irregularities” as state governor. He says he will at least enter the primaries. 

superfluous:余分な, 過剰な; 不必要な, むだな
irregularities:不法な行為, 反則.
primaries:予備選挙 (特に大統領選挙で, 各政党の大統領候補者を選出する代議員の選挙をさす; primary election) .

Potential leftist contenders are also being targeted. The highest-profile is Rafael Ramirez, a long-term rival of the president, who was sacked as ambassador to the UN after he criticised his country’s economic policy. On December 12th Tarek Saab, the chief prosecutor, said corruption charges were being drawn up against Mr Ramirez. 

draw up a contract:契約書を作成する.

Mr Maduro may yet be surprised by a dark horse. One name being aired is Lorenzo Mendoza, the boss of Polar, a big food-and-drinks firm. When he attended a baseball game last week, the crowd chanted “Presidente!”. He denies any political hopes, but if he were to run, voters might prefer a leader who fills plates, rather than leaving them empty. 

plate-filling:皿からあふれんばかりの

ニコラス・マデューロは来年の選挙に向けて、野党から候補が出ないように仕組んでいる。経済的に破綻しているので、どうころんでもうまくいかない。ダークホースとして、大企業の社長のLorenzo Mendozaが大統領の名乗りをあげるかもしれない。国民は今のままでは国家が破綻してしまうと思っているので、いずれにしても、今のままということはないだろう。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。その後にスケートの忘年会もある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 19:20コメント(0) 

2017年12月21日

中東において、ロシアは何処にでもいるようだ。 12月11日、トルコの大統領エルドアンはロシアの大統領プーチンをアンカラに歓迎する。

Dec 13, 2017 | 08:00 GMT
In the Middle East, Russia Seems to Be Everywhere
Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin, to Ankara on Dec. 11.

中東において、ロシアは何処にでもいるようだ。
12月11日、トルコの大統領エルドアンはロシアの大統領プーチンをアンカラに歓迎する。

Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, to Ankara on Dec. 11.

It can be difficult to separate the important from unimportant on any given day. Reflections mean to do exactly that — by thinking about what happened today, we can consider what might happen tomorrow. 

Reflections:映像

Russia's growing prominence in the Middle East was on full display Dec. 11 when Vladimir Putin visited three key Middle Eastern countries in one day. The Russian president followed a surprise trip to Syria with a quick stop in Egypt before ending his day's travels in Turkey. He met with his presidential counterparts in all three countries, and the economic deals, military agreements and political settlements he discussed highlighted Russia's role in the region. While Russia has its own reasons for bolstering its relationships with Syria, Egypt and Turkey, it also benefits from being visible where its regional rival, the United States, is not. 

prominence:come [rise] to national prominence 国中に知られるようになる
on full display:丸見えになって

Russia's diplomatic reach in the Middle East varies significantly per country. Its fair-weather relationship with strategic powers such as Iran goes back centuries, while its pursuit of a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia is developing, for example. Russia's relationship with Turkey has yielded friction and fruit over the decades, depending on which way the pendulum has swung. 

pendulum:the swing of the pendulum 振り子の揺れ;

But what is striking about Russian diplomacy over the past couple of years is how Moscow's diplomatic presence has saturated the region. Its activity in such areas as the Palestinian territories, Libya, Israel, Lebanon, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia is in some ways reminiscent of the Soviet Union's broad presence across the region. The juxtaposition with a United States that seems to want to draw down its regional commitments and focus on other issues, such as turning at long last to Asia instead of attending to fires in the Middle East, is noticeable, and it is heightened by Russia's appearing to be everywhere at once.

saturated:…に集中攻撃を加える.あふれさせる
reminiscent:を思い出させる, 思わせる, しのばせる
juxtaposition:並列、並置、横に並べて置く[置いてある]こと
at long last:〔長期間の努力の末〕やっとのことで、ついに、やっと、ようやく

In all three of the countries Putin visited, Russia's goals contravene those of the United States, or the relationship is more pragmatic where Washington's is less so, and more heavily weighted toward a couple of specific names. In Syria, the United States plays a strong counterterrorism role but has stepped away from the civil conflict almost entirely, which gives it less leverage to bring about any sort of political solution aligned with U.S. interests. Meanwhile, Russia will be bringing Turkey, Iran and the Syrian government to the table to pursue a political settlement. In Turkey, Russia's warming relationship stands in contrast to the coldness currently plaguing U.S.-Turkey ties (although the U.S.-Turkey relationship goes through peaks and valleys). 

contravene:〈法律・規則・指示など〉に違反する, 抵触する.〈陳述・決定など〉に反論する.
plaguing:を困らせる, 閉口させる

While the Syrian policies of both the United States and Russia have disappointed Turkey, Russia has made itself more indispensable to achieving what Ankara wants: a political settlement that denies the Syrian Kurds a federal state. By nature of Moscow's tight relationship with Damascus, clear in the multiple tete-a-tetes between Putin and President Bashar al Assad in recent months, there is a possibility of Russia offering Turkey what it needs from the Syrian conflict. 

indispensable:不可欠な, 欠くことのできない, 絶対必要な(essential)
Damascus:シリア首都
tete-a-tetes:〔二人の〕内緒話、打ち明け話

Russia's relationship with Turkey is important beyond its contrast with the U.S.-Turkey relationship, but Russia relishes bolstering its image as a mediator, interlocutor and friend as the United States struggles to be the same. The United States also has struggled to pressure Turkey and other Middle Eastern powers to improve their human rights behavior while relying on them to carry the weight of its regional policy. European Union countries drive an even tougher bargain on human rights with their Middle Eastern allies. Russia ignores the issue, much to the relief of its regional partners. 

relishes:することに喜びを感じる
bolstering:強化する
interlocutor:対話者, 対談者
carry the weight of the world:世界の重みを支える
to the relief of:〜にとって安心なことには

Russia has used its strategic footprint in Syria to deepen its relationships across the region. Egypt, which has a long-standing pattern of turning alternately to the United States or Russia for external security and economic agreements, is swinging toward Russia again. A plan to build a Russian nuclear power plant in Egypt is in the works, and Putin said in Cairo on Dec. 11 that Russia was ready to resume civilian flights to Egypt after a two-year disruption. An accord to allow Russia the use of Egypt's military bases, if finalized, will solidify Egypt's importance to Russia's military posture in the region. 

alternately:交互に、互い違いに、交代に、代わる代わる
resume:回復する 再開する
disrupt civilian flights at the airport:空港における民間機の運航を混乱させる
solidify:強固にする
posture:形勢

Increased visibility and diplomatic energy don't mean, of course, that Russia can achieve whatever it wants in the Middle East. Moscow has scant history of exercising soft power to fully achieve its ends in the region, and despite Russia's solidifying position in Syria, the U.S. military and diplomatic presence across the Middle East still dwarfs Russia's. The timing of Putin's whirlwind day trip is also linked to Russian domestic politics, with presidential elections approaching in March 2018. 

scant:pay scant attention to pedestrians 歩行者にわずかの注意しか払わない.
whirlwind:あわただしい

Putin uses Russia's successes in Syria to promote Moscow's global role as the standoff with the United States continues, and to bolster the Russian image in the wake of the Winter Olympics doping scandal. Russia will discover limits as it seeks to deepen its presence in the Middle East — the Syrian peace process likely will stall, for example. In Iran, Egypt and Turkey, the pendulum will no doubt swing again to a less cordial place for Moscow. But Russia is building a deeper economic component into these relationships to help mitigate any limitations. 

There's a limit to what doctors can do.:医師ができることには限界がある
stall:〈進行が〉遅れる, 止まる.
cordial:maintain cordial relations with a partner 共同出資者と友好的関係を維持する

To Middle Eastern states, Russia is angling to portray itself as a benevolent mediator — a superpower that does not interfere domestically but can provide diplomatic, economic and security assistance. In this way, Russia benefits from the void left by a U.S. Middle East strategy skewed decidedly in favor of Saudi Arabia and Israel. 

angling:遠回しに求める, それとなく得ようとする
benevolent:a benevolent despot [dictator] 慈悲深い専制君主[独裁者].
interfere:interfere in the internal affairs 内政に干渉する.
void:fill the void left by her death 彼女を亡くした喪失感を埋める.
skewed:(内容的に)Aに著しく傾いている.

ロシアはアメリカのすきを突いて、この中東に精力的に動いている。アメリカの存在はロシアよりもその歴史において強固なものだが、彼らは今サウジとイスラエルに執着しているので、ロシアはイラン、トルコ、シリア、エジプトに対してその影響力を拡大しようとしている。彼らとの関係は確固たるものではないが、アメリカのように人権に言及せず、内政に干渉しない。もっぱら、外交、経済、安全保障に重点を置いている。

金曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:47コメント(0) 

2017年12月20日

新年はEUが精通した挑戦がある。 EUの旗がブラッセルの証券取引所の建物にはためく。

Dec 11, 2017 | 08:00 GMT
A New Year Brings Familiar Challenges for the EU
The EU flag flies over the stock exchange building in Brussels.

新年はEUが精通した挑戦がある。
EUの旗がブラッセルの証券取引所の建物にはためく。

The EU flag flies over the stock exchange building in Brussels.

Assessments Highlights
In 2018 the European Union will try to close the free trade agreements it has been negotiating in recent years and to sign new deals with additional countries.
The European Union will continue pressuring Russia to cooperate on a solution for the conflict in Ukraine but will be reluctant to increase its sanctions on Moscow.
Initiatives to cooperate with the countries migrants hail from and travel through will be easier to approve than will plans to reform the bloc's rules on migration.

hail:〈物・事〉を受け入れる

The European Union will face numerous foreign policy challenges next year, ranging from negotiating new trade deals to dealing with problematic neighbors such as Russia and Turkey. The bloc will also continue its efforts to reduce the number of migrants arriving in Europe, both by cooperating with countries of origin and transit states and by trying to reform its asylum policies. As the European Union takes on these issues, it will strive to stay as united as possible — no small feat considering that its foreign policy is the product of compromise between member states with differing interests and priorities. Consequently, the Continental bloc is likely to operate as a reactive force, responding to events and adapting to new realities rather than taking the initiative. 

strive:strive to achieve economic independence 経済的に自立しようと懸命になる
feat:no mean [small, easy] feat 至難の業
differing:異なる
reactive:受け身的な, 待ちの姿勢の.

A Year of Trade Negotiations
One of the European Union's main foreign policy goals for 2018 will be to negotiate trade agreements with countries outside the bloc. Hashing out trade deals is easier said than done because EU members have varying priorities when it comes to trade. Countries such as France and Ireland, for example, are protective of their farmers, a stance that often makes agriculture a tricky subject to negotiate with partners beyond the bloc. For other EU countries like Germany, the flow of private data to outside states is a sensitive matter. And the mechanism to solve disputes between investors is a topic that will probably keep giving the bloc trouble in future negotiations. 

Hashing out:〈問題・困難など〉をじっくり話して解決する.
tricky:〈仕事などが〉扱いにくい, 微妙な.

Part of the European Union's trade agenda next year will focus on enforcing recently signed agreements, such as the bloc's deal with Canada. The pact, which entered force provisionally in September, won't take full effect until after the national parliament of every EU member has ratified it. (So far, only five legislatures have approved the deal.) The European Union also will have to hammer out the contentious issue of investment protection in its trade deal with Japan, which the two sides finalized Dec. 8, before the European Council and European Parliament can approve it. Likewise, the bloc has several details to nail down with the Common Market of the South — better known by its Spanish acronym, Mercosur — as they near a trade deal. 

enter into force:〔条約・協定などが〕発効する
provisionally:一時[暫定]的に〈決定するなど〉.
near:They were nearing the end of the voyage. 彼らの航海も終わりに近づいていた

Beyond closing the negotiations that are already underway, the European Union has plans to pursue more talks next year. The bloc, for example, is in the early stages of discussing trade deals with Australia and New Zealand, though the negotiations could be a difficult and lengthy endeavor. As a major agricultural exporter, Australia will probably try to secure access to the EU market for goods such as produce. But several European countries will be reluctant to grant that wish, meaning that the negotiations may extend beyond the European Commission's target deadline of late 2019. 

endeavor:(特に新しくて困難な)努力, 試み
produce:organic produce 無農薬農作物.

Reaching a trade deal with India — which is scheduled to hold negotiations with the European Union in 2018 — promises to be no less challenging. The two began free trade talks in 2007 but stalled over issues such as investor protection. The European Union also plans to continue negotiations with Indonesia as part of a broader strategy to deepen its ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. 

The EU's Main Free Trade Negotiations
Difficult Neighbors
Trade talks won't be the only topic on the European Union's foreign agenda next year. The bloc will also have to manage some difficult relationships with nearby states. Russia, for example, will keep trying to exploit political and strategic divisions among EU members by supporting Euroskeptic parties across the Continent and using its well-oiled propaganda machine to influence European media, including social media. The European Union recently expressed concern about Russian propaganda and announced it would dedicate more money and resources to a task force charged with identifying and countering disinformation coming from its eastern neighbor. 

exploit:〈物〉を(有効)利用する, 活用する; 〈資源など〉を開発する
divisions:(意見の相違による)分裂, 対立
well-oiled:a well-oiled machine 円滑に機能している組織
disinformation:(相手をだますための)偽りの情報

Italy's next general election, which will take place by May 2018, will give Moscow a prime opportunity to use these tools, after all. The Kremlin has ties to three of the race's four main contenders. The head of the center-right Forza Italia party, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, is a personal friend of Vladimir Putin, and members of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement have met several times with representatives from Russia's ruling party. Both Italian parties have criticized the EU sanctions against Russia; should they reach power, they could push to lift the measures.

contenders:競争者[相手]

When handling Russia next year, the European Union will remain largely reactive. Brussels will continue pressuring Moscow to cooperate on a solution for the conflict in Ukraine, but the bloc will resist increasing its sanctions against Russia, even in the likely event that it votes to extend them again. Russia, meanwhile, will probably keep trying to disrupt the European Union, though it is unlikely to resort to using military force against a NATO member to test the alliance's strength. 

disrupt:〈会合・制度・交通など〉を混乱[中断]させる

Relations between the European Union and Turkey will also be complex in the coming year. On the one hand, the European Union will continue using trade and the promise of closer ties with the bloc to keep Turkey aligned with its objectives. But on the other, Brussels will be ready to impose punitive measures on Ankara if Turkey's political and social situation deteriorates further. Much as it has done with Russia, the European Union will wait for Turkey to make the first move before assessing a response. The bloc will be walking a fine line, however, aware that too much pressure could jeopardize its immigration deal with Turkey. 

walk a fine line:紙一重の所を行く

Finally, the European Union will have to deal with the countries of the Western Balkans, which aspire to join the bloc but probably won't for at least a few more years. Brussels will have to find a way to address the fact that many Western and Northern EU governments oppose accepting new members while also keeping the dream of accession alive for countries such as Serbia, Macedonia and Bosnia. The prospect of EU membership, along with funding, helps keep the region's ethnic tensions under control and provides states incentive to introduce institutional, economic and political reforms. Should the promise weaken, local leaders may turn to nationalism and conflict to retain power. 

Dealing With Immigration
The third main foreign policy challenge for the European Union in 2018 will be to manage immigration from Africa and the Middle East. Under current EU rules, the country where asylum seekers first enter the bloc becomes responsible for them. This system puts disproportionate pressure on Mediterranean states such as Greece and Italy, which receive most of the migrants who reach the Continent by sea. The European Commission and several member states have proposed changes to EU migration policy over the years, to no avail. Next year, EU members will once again consider ways to reform the rules, including controversial measures to distribute asylum seekers more evenly across the bloc. 

 to no avail:I tried everything possible but to no avail. あらゆる手を尽くしたがうまくいかなかった.

At the same time, the European Union will keep working with countries of origin, as well as transit states, to try to stem the flow of migrants onto the Continent and disrupt human trafficking operations. Political instability in recent years has turned Libya into a common point of departure for migrants trying to reach Europe by sea. During the EU-Africa summit in late November, European and African leaders agreed on a plan to dismantle the networks that smuggle migrants into the war-torn country and to repatriate migrants who are currently stranded there. 

stranded:〈人・車などが〉立ち往生した, 足止めされた.

The European Union already has increased its cooperation with authorities in Libya over the past few months; Italy in particular has assisted the Libyan coast guard with money, equipment and training. Though it has drawn criticism from human rights groups concerned about the way Libya treats migrants, Italy's support has helped reduce the number of crossings from the North African country. According to data from the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, some 21,700 people arrived in Italy by sea between July and September this year, the lowest number for that period in the past four years. 

Still, the migration problem is far from solved. The situation in Libya is volatile, and the country's cooperation with the European Union could falter at any time. Furthermore, migrants are starting to use new routes departing from states such as Tunisia and Algeria. Spain, moreover, received 90 percent more migrants traveling by land or sea in the third quarter of this year than it did in the last three months of 2016. While most of these migrants hail from countries like Morocco, Ivory Coast and Guinea, a growing number of Syrian nationals are also arriving in Spain. In years past, by contrast, most Syrian asylum seekers have opted for the much shorter route through Turkey to reach the European Union. 

falter:【自信・決心などが】にぶる, くじける
hail:受け入れる

On top of its foreign policy challenges, the European Union will weather an intense debate next year over proposals to reform the bloc. The discussion will create tension not only between northern and southern states but also between western and eastern members. This tension, in turn, will extend to foreign policy matters, since EU member states have different views on most of the issues on the table. Not all EU members feel the same sense of urgency about Russia or immigration, nor do they have the same priorities on trade. As is true of many other policy areas, the main challenge for EU diplomacy next year will be to speak with a single voice. 

weather:weather the storm 無事に嵐[難局]を切り抜ける.

EUの来年の課題はたくさんある。EUは数多くの国家の利害が一つでないので、その調整が必要であり、その地域によってもそれぞれ利害が違う。域外においてはロシアへの経済制裁にはあまり乗り気でないし、カナダとの交渉はまとまったが、日本、インドとの貿易交渉がある。また、難民問題も複雑だ。トルコに対してあまりつらくたると難民を受けてくれない。バルカンも加盟は数年先だが、突き放すわけにも行かない。イタリアとギリシャが数多くの難民を受けているが、他の諸国にもその責任をシェアしたいのだがうまくいかない。

木曜日。ではまた明日。


swingby_blog at 17:39コメント(0) 
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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