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After more than two decades of steady market reform, China intensified its state-directed stimulus in 2002 and again in 2008. The workforce has not yet begun to shrink and a mixed economy can sustain low-return investment for much longer than a market economy. Within a decade, however, the Communist Party must grit its teeth and return to a market path or suffer Japan¡Çs fate. If political will is lacking, China¡Çs growth story will vanish as Japan¡Çs did, and the many projections of Chinese predominance will prove as illusory as they were for Japan 20 years ago.

 

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The obvious questions are if and when the PRC will restart reform. Here, China-watching is still guesswork. It is certain that the longer Beijing waits, the more painful a return to the market will be. The economy is now distorted by investment similar to how the U.S. economy is distorted by deficit spending. As with American budget warnings since 2007, China¡Çs State Council first cited investment dependence as a problem in 2004, and it has become far worse since.


ÌÀ³Î¤Êµ¿Ìä¤Ï¤â¤·¡¢Ãæ²Ú¿Í̱¶¦Ï¹ñ¤¬²þ³×¤òºÆ¥¹¥¿¡¼¥È¤¹¤ë¤è¤¦¤Ê»þ¤À¡£¤³¤³¤Ç¤Ï¡¢Ãæ¹ñ¾ðÀª¤Î´Ñ¬¤Ï¤Þ¤À¤¢¤Æ¿äÎ̤À¡£Ãæ¹ñ¤¬ÂԤƤÐÂԤĤۤɡ¢»Ô¾ì¤«¤é¤ÎÊÖÅú¤ÏÄˤߤòȼ¤¦¤À¤í¤¦¤È¸À¤¦¤³¤È³Î¤«¤À¡£¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î·ÐºÑ¤¬ÀÖ»ú»Ù½Ð¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤ÆÏĤá¤é¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤ÈƱÍͤˡ¢¤³¤Î·ÐºÑ¤Ïº£¡¢Åê»ñ¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤ÆÏĤá¤é¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£2007ǯ°ÊÍè¤Î¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Îͽ»»¤ËÂФ¹¤ë·Ù¹ð¤ÈƱÍͤˡ¢ Ãæ²Ú¿Í̱¶¦Ï¹ñ¹ñ̳±¡¤Ï¤Ï¤¸¤á¤Æ¡¢2004ǯ¤ÎÌäÂê¤È¤·¤ÆÅê»ñ°Í¸¤Ë¸ÀµÚ¤·¤¿¡£¤½¤·¤Æ¡¢¤½¤ì¤Ï¤½¤ì°ÊÍè¡¢¤Ï¤ë¤«¤Ë°­¤¯¤Ê¤Ã¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£

 

Sharp policy changes are more feasible in the PRC than in most countries due to centralized decision making. Still, an abrupt end to state subsidization of investment would cause several years of slow growth or even contraction, whether or not the party acknowledged it. A gradual change of direction is much more likely, but would extend the period of economic inefficiency and environmental destruction. Such an extension could cost China dearly as the labour situation deteriorates by the end of this decade.

 

µÞ·ã¤ÊÀ¯ºö¤ÎÊѲ½¤ÏÃæ±û½¸¸¢¤Î°Õ»×·èÄê¤Î°Ù¤Ë¡¢Â¾¤Î¿¤¯¤Î¹ñ²È¤è¤ê¤âÃæ²Ú¿Í̱¶¦Ï¹ñ¤Ë±÷¤¤¤Æ¤Ï¤è¤ê¼Â¸½²Äǽ¤À¡£ÅÞ¤¬¤½¤ì¤òǧ¼±¤·¤è¤¦¤¬¤·¤Þ¤¤¤¬¡¢º£¤Þ¤Ç¤Î¤È¤³¤í¡¢Åê»ñ¤Î¹ñ²È¤Ë¤è¤ë½õÀ®¤ÎµÞ¤ÊÇѻߤϲ¿Ç¯¤Ë¤â¤ï¤¿¤Ã¤¿À®Ä¹¤ÎÆß²½¤â¤·¤¯¤Ï¡¢·Êµ¤¸åÂव¤¨°ú¤­µ¯¤³¤¹¤À¤í¤¦¡£Êý¸þ¤Î´Ë¤ä¤«¤ÊÊѲ½¤Ï¤â¤Ã¤È¿¤¯µ¯¤³¤ê¤½¤¦¤À¤¬¡¢·ÐºÑ¤ÎÈó¸úΨ¤È´Ä¶­¤ÎÇ˲õ¤Î´ü´Ö¤ò±ä¤Ð¤¹¤³¤È¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£Ï«Æ¯¾õ¶·¤¬¤³¤Î10ǯ¤Î½ª¤ï¤ê¤Þ¤Ç¤Ë¤Ï°­²½¤¹¤ë¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤½¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ê±äŤÏÃæ¹ñ¤ËÂ礭¤Êµ¾À·¤òʧ¤ï¤»¤ë¤³¤È¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£


So, whose century is it?

Comparing the U.S. and China, the next World Bank inflation adjustment will drop China further behind (and bring the PPP comparison closer to the simple GDP comparison). America¡Çs growth rate is obviously another major variable. Nonetheless, its raw population means that the PRC will likely pass the U.S. at some point after a resumption of market reform.

 

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For example, if the 2012 Communist Party Congress were to nullify actions by the 2002 Party Congress and restore Deng Xiaoping¡Çs economic model, this would enable roughly two more decades of rapid growth, perhaps in the 7 percent to 8 percent range, then gently decreasing to the 5 percent to 6 percent range over time. China would then surpass the U.S. in PPP-adjusted size before 2025 and pass the U.S. in simple GDP three or four years after that. Delaying reform or other missteps will postpone the dates. Finally, the somewhat bizarre example of Japan appears to indicate that China could also decline to reform, suffer long-term stagnation, and never pass the U.S. at all.

 

Î㤨¤Ð¡¢²¾¤Ë2012ǯ¤Î¶¦»ºÅÞÂç²ñ¤¬2002ǯ¤ÎÅÞÂç²ñ¤Î·èµÄ¤ò̵¸ú¤Ë¤·¤Æ¡¢ûý¾®Ê¿¤Î·ÐºÑ¥â¥Ç¥ë¤òÉü³è¤µ¤»¤ë¤Ê¤é¤Ð¡¢¤ª¤ª¤è¤½20ǯ¤ÎµÞ·ã¤ÊÀ®Ä¹¤ò²Äǽ¤Ë¤¹¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£Â¿Ê¬¡¢7¡ó¤«¤é8¡ó¤ÎÈϰϤǡ¢¤½¤ì¤«¤é´Ë¤ä¤«¤Ë¡¢»þ´Ö¤Î·Ð²á¤Ç¡¢5¡ó¤«¤é6¡ó¤ÎÈϰϤ˸º¾¯¤·¤Æ¹Ô¤¯¤À¤í¤¦¡£Ãæ¹ñ¤Ï¤½¤ì¤«¤é2025ǯÁ°¤Ë PPP½¤Àµ¸å¤Îµ¬ÌϤǡ¢¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤ò±Û¤¨¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£¤½¤Î¸å¡¢3¡¢4ǯ¤Ç¡¢GDP¤½¤Î¤â¤Î¤Ç¡¢¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤ò±Û¤¨¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£²þ³×¤ÎÃÙ¤ì¤â¤·¤¯¤Ï¼ººö¤¬¤½¤ÎÆü»þ¤òÃ٤餻¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£ºÇ¸å¤Ë¡¢´öʬÆüËܤÎÆÍÈô¤ÊÎã¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¤¬¤Þ¤¿¡¢²þ³×¤òµñ¤ß¡¢Ä¹´ü¤ÎÄÀÂڤ˶줷¤ß¡¢¤½¤·¤Æ¡¢·ë¶É¡¢¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤òο¤°¤³¤È¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¤«¤âÃΤì¤Ê¤¤¤È¸À¤¦¤³¤È¤ò¤Û¤Î¤á¤«¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤è¤¦¤À¡£


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