これはエコノミストだ。

The future of oil
Yesterday’s fuel
The world’s thirst for oil could be nearing a peak. That is bad news for producers, excellent for everyone else
Aug 3rd 2013 |From the print edition

石油の将来
昨日の燃料
石油に対する世界からの渇望はピークに近いと言える。それは製造業者にとって悪いニュースだが、他の人達にとってはすばらしいことだ。

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21582516-worlds-thirst-oil-could-be-nearing-peak-bad-news-producers-excellent?fsrc=nlw%7Chig%7C8-1-2013%7C6280705%7C37877959%7C

石油はシェールガスのお陰で、世界の石油地図が変わってしまうだろう。精油の需要が最大化すると言われて来た「ピークオイル」のことではなく、技術の進歩によって石油の需要は2005年以来減少して来ている。その一つはシェールガスの開発だ。それによってこうした石油の埋蔵量が５０年から２００年になった。現在一日あたり、8,900万バーレルの原油が消費されているが、2020年までには数百万バーレルがシェールガスに置き代わりだろう。それともう一つは自動車の内燃機関の飛躍的な進歩と車自体の軽量化だ。液体水素燃料電池によるハイブリッドがガソリンの消費量を削減するだろう。ここ数年で、9,200万バーレルで原油は頭打ちになるだろう。発展途上国の車需要が今後急増すると言われているが、彼らも燃費には敏感に対応するだろう。だから石油の需要は増えない。

1990年代にあったようにサウジが原油の供給量と値段を操作して市場を操ったようにもう行かない。環境問題があるから、原油が安くなっても、燃費の悪い車は普及しない。需要が安定して来ると、今度は環境がクローズアップして来る。石油よりもガスの方が環境に優しい。メジャーは生き残るだろうが、利益は以前ほどではないだろう。アメリカが力を持って来て、中東が後退して行くだろう。時代の流れは予想もしない方向に流れて行くものだ。石油価格が最近まで高止まりだが、それも時間の問題かもしれない。

THE dawn of the oil age was fairly recent. Although the stuff was used to waterproof boats in the Middle East 6,000 years ago, extracting it in earnest began only in 1859 after an oil strike in Pennsylvania. The first barrels of crude fetched $18 (around $450 at today’s prices). It was used to make kerosene, the main fuel for artificial lighting after overfishing led to a shortage of whale blubber. Other liquids produced in the refining process, too unstable or smoky for lamplight, were burned or dumped. But the unwanted petrol and diesel did not go to waste for long, thanks to the development of the internal-combustion engine a few years later.

夜明け
本格的に　
石油を掘り当てる
18ドルで売れた
脂肪

Since then demand for oil has, with a couple of blips in the 1970s and 1980s, risen steadily alongside ever-increasing travel by car, plane and ship. Three-fifths of it ends up in fuel tanks. With billions of Chinese and Indians growing richer and itching to get behind the wheel of a car, the big oil companies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and America’s Energy Information Administration all predict that demand will keep on rising. One of the oil giants, Britain’s BP, reckons it will grow from 89m b/d now to 104m b/d by 2030.

幾度かの急上昇を伴って
車を運転したくてたまらない
計算する

We believe that they are wrong, and that oil is close to a peak. This is not the “peak oil” widely discussed several years ago, when several theorists, who have since gone strangely quiet, reckoned that supply would flatten and then fall. We believe that demand, not supply, could decline. In the rich world oil demand has already peaked: it has fallen since 2005. Even allowing for all those new drivers in Beijing and Delhi, two revolutions in technology will dampen the world’s thirst for the black stuff.

横ばいになる
世界の石油産出量の頂点。ピークに達したあと生産量は減少の一途をたどり、需要をまかなえなくなることから石油価格が高騰すると考えられている。
鈍らせる

The first revolution was led by a Texan who has just died. George Mitchell championed “fracking” as a way to release huge supplies of “unconventional” gas from shale beds. This, along with vast new discoveries of conventional gas, has recently helped increase the world’s reserves from 50 to 200 years. In America, where thanks to Mr Mitchell shale gas already billows from the ground, liquefied or compressed gas is finding its way into the tanks of lorries, buses and local-delivery vehicles. Gas could also replace oil in ships, power stations, petrochemical plants and domestic and industrial heating systems, and thus displace a few million barrels of oil a day by 2020.

挑戦した
水圧粉砕
「一般的とは言えない」
押し寄せる
液化された

The other great change is in automotive technology. Rapid advances in engine and vehicle design also threaten oil’s dominance. Foremost is the efficiency of the internal-combustion engine itself. Petrol and diesel engines are becoming ever more frugal. The materials used to make cars are getting lighter and stronger. The growing popularity of electric and hybrid cars, as well as vehicles powered by natural gas or hydrogen fuel cells, will also have an effect on demand for oil. Analysts at Citi, a bank, calculate that if the fuel-efficiency of cars and trucks improves by an average of 2.5% a year it will be enough to constrain oil demand; they predict that a peak of less than 92m b/d will come in the next few years. Ricardo, a big automotive engineer, has come to a similar conclusion.

節約する
人気
抑制する
液体水素燃料電池

Not surprisingly, the oil “supermajors” and the IEA disagree. They point out that most of the emerging world has a long way to go before it owns as many cars, or drives as many miles per head, as America. 

〔石油資本の〕スーパーメジャー◆国営会社を除く巨大国際石油資本で、通例、エクソンモービル（米）、ロイヤル・ダッチ・シェル（米・オランダ）、BP（英）、シェブロン（米）、コノコフィリップス（米）、トタル（仏）の6社を指す。
国際エネルギー機関

But it would be foolish to extrapolate from the rich world’s past to booming Asia’s future. The sort of environmental policies that are reducing the thirst for fuel in Europe and America by imposing ever-tougher fuel-efficiency standards on vehicles are also being adopted in the emerging economies. China recently introduced its own set of fuel-economy measures. If, as a result of its determination to reduce its dependence on imported oil, the regime imposes policies designed to “leapfrog” the country’s transport system to hybrids, oil demand will come under even more pressure.

推定する
強い欲望
「飛び越す」
更に多くの圧力にさらされるだろう。

A fit of peak
A couple of countervailing factors could kick in to increase consumption. First, the Saudis, who control 11% of output and have the most spare capacity, may decide to push out more, lowering prices and thus increasing demand. Then again, they might cut production to try to raise prices, thereby lowering demand further. Second, if declining demand pushes down the oil price, drivers may turn back to gas-guzzling cars, as they did when oil was cheap in the 1990s. But tightening emissions standards should make that harder in future.

ピークに達する時
相殺する
増加させうる
燃費の悪い自動車

If the demand for oil merely stabilises, it will have important consequences. The environment should fare a little better. Gas vehicles emit less carbon dioxide than equivalent petrol-powered ones. The corporate pecking order will change, too. Currently, Exxon Mobil vies with Apple as the world’s biggest listed company. Yet Exxon and the other oil supermajors are more vulnerable than they look. Bernstein, a research firm, reckons that new barrels of oil from the Arctic or other technologically (or politically) demanding environments now cost $100 to extract. Big Oil can still have a decent future as Big Gas, but that will not prove as profitable.

環境は少しばかり貢献するべきだ。
企業の序列
はりあう
北極の
まずまずの

The biggest impact of declining demand could be geopolitical. Oil underpins Vladimir Putin’s kleptocracy. The Kremlin will find it more difficult to impose its will on the country if its main source of patronage is diminished. The Saudi princes have relied on a high oil price to balance their budgets while paying for lavish social programmes to placate the restless young generation that has taken to the streets elsewhere. Their huge financial reserves can plug the gap for a while; but if the oil flows into the kingdom’s coffers less readily, buying off the opposition will be harder and the chances of upheaval greater. And if America is heading towards shale-powered energy self-sufficiency, it is unlikely to be as indulgent in future towards the Arab allies it propped up in the past. In its rise, oil has fuelled many conflicts. It may continue to do so as it falls. For all that, most people will welcome the change.

支える
盗奪政治：国家国民から収奪して私腹をこやす政治形態
商売の主要な源泉
気前の良い
懐柔する
落ち着かない／不安な
街頭で抗議する
ギャップをなくす
金庫
買収する
自給自足
寛大な
支えた
石油の需要が増えると石油は多くの紛争に火をつけていた。石油の需要が減少しても紛争が続くかもしれない。とは言うものの、殆どの人々はこの石油の需要が減ると言う変化を歓迎するだろう。

今日はこれまで。この数日間で涼しくなった。一昨日暑いので、扇風機を買ったが買ってから使っていない。クーラーもつけていない。窓を開けて寝ていると、寒くて目が覚める。日本の気候は急に変化する。さて、今日は久しぶりに娘と会食する。午後は自動車企業に訪問する。ではまた明日。