2013年10月28日

中国の水資源は河川の消滅とともにますます枯渇して来ていて、壮大な運河の計画がその正鵠を得た答えではない。そもそも水がないのだから、その少ない水をどう利用するかが先決だ。(2)

南水北調2日目

Unlike some of China’s recent infrastructure extravagances, the diversion project addresses a serious problem. China is dangerously short of water. While the south is a lush, lake-filled region, the north—which has half the population and most of the farmland—is more like a desert. The international definition of water stress is 1,000 cubic metres of usable water per person per year. The average northern Chinese has less than a fifth of that amount. China has 20% of the world’s population but only 7% of its fresh water. A former prime minister, Wen Jiabao, once said water shortages threaten “the very survival of the Chinese nation”.

浪費
迂回路
豊富な
水分ストレス:水需給が逼迫している状態


The shortage is worsening because China’s water is disappearing. In the 1950s the country had 50,000 rivers with catchment areas of 100 square kilometres or more. Now the number is down to 23,000. China has lost 27,000 rivers, mostly as a result of over-exploitation by farms or factories. Water shortages impose big costs. China is hoping for a shale-gas revolution but does not have enough water for it since most of the gas reserves are in the driest parts of the country. The World Bank puts the cost of China’s water problems—mostly damage to health—at 2.3% of a year’s GDP.

貯水池 catchment area:集水地域
利己的な利用/搾取

Right problem, wrong solution
China clearly needs to do something—but not the South-North diversion project. Aside from the massive cost, the two rivers involved have very different ecosystems and taking water from one to the other could do irreparable environmental harm. The bits that have been finished already have killed many organisms. China’s vast engineering projects could also hurt its neighbours. The diversion scheme is just one of several proposals for the rivers of southern China, including the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra and Mekong, which could affect a billion people who live downstream. And all those projects would increase the amount of water in China by only a few percentage points.

大量の
取り返しのつかない
部分
ブラマプトラ川◆チベット自治区のヒマラヤ山脈(Himalaya Range)に発してインドのアッサム(Assam)州を西流しバングラデシュに入りガンジス川(Ganges River)に合流した後ベンガル湾(Bay of Bengal)に注ぐ大河。全長2900キロメートル。チベット自治区内での名称はツァンポ川(Zangbo River)、バングラデシュ内での名称はジャムナ川(Jamuna River)

The government is approaching the water problem from the wrong end. Damming or diverting rivers tackles only supply—increasing available water by capturing more of what flows through rivers or by moving water from one river to another. The government would do better to focus on demand, reducing consumption of water in order to make better use of limited supplies. Water is too cheap in most cities, usually costing a tenth of prices in Europe. Such mispricing results in extravagance. Industry recycles too little water; agriculture wastes too much. Higher water prices would raise costs for farms and factories, but that would be better than spending billions on shipping water round the country.

間違ったところから
川を塞き止める
迂回させる
取り組む

Development plans should also be rewritten with an eye to the shortage. China is building cities of a million people in the Gobi desert. That makes no sense. The government should stop boosting demand for water in places that have none. China should also fine polluters. According to the land ministry, more than half the groundwater in northern China is too dirty for people to wash in, let alone drink, and some is so poisonous it cannot even be used in the fields. Reducing pollution would not just improve Chinese people’s health, but would also do more than building any number of dams to increase available supplies of usable water. China’s engineers have performed amazing feats in the course of its development. But the water problem is best solved by its economists and environmental regulators.

そんな理屈があるか。
国土部
業績/功績

月曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は朝はインラインスケート。スケートが重いので、3輪にしようと思った。暑くないのに、3回も休憩した。昼からは中国語と英語の勉強。年を取って来ると年ごとに体力は落ちるが、集中力と忍耐力は逆に増加する。夜はこのブログの準備で9時半まで。今日はデスクワークと夜まで会合がある。ではまた明日。



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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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