2016年01月31日

日本の経済 投石器と矢 有害な増税と無口な経営者は大損害を被る(2)

Meanwhile, Mr Abe has been slow to fire his third arrow. Overhauling social spending and making the labour market more flexible would help spur firms to invest at home and lift wages. Tackling Japan’s demographic problems head on, by encouraging both immigration and procreation, is also a must.

procreation:出産

All now hinges on whether the economy rebounds in the current quarter. Private economists are forecasting annualised growth of 4%. Yet soggy summer weather has already dampened retail sales and car purchases are still low. A rare piece of good news was that total wages for permanent employees jumped by 2.6% year-on-year in July, the fastest pace in 17 years, as companies have raised bonuses. There are also some signs that firms are starting to hire more permanent workers as well as cheaper, temporary staff.

hinge on:次第である
soggy:ジメジメした
dampen:減退させる

Unless growth continues to disappoint, Mr Abe will probably stick with a second scheduled rise in the consumption tax, from 8% to 10%, in October of next year. A reversal might stir alarm about Japan’s huge public debt, which stands at more than 240% of GDP. Another tax rise, however, combined with continued sluggish growth, would deepen the public’s disapproval of Abenomics, says Naohiko Baba of Goldman Sachs, a bank. Mr Abe’s poll ratings could fall, lowering his chances of winning parliamentary approval for third-arrow reforms.

reversal:反転
stir:かき混ぜる

Meanwhile, the BoJ is still well short of its inflation target of 2% (after stripping out the effects of the tax rise). Upward pressure on prices is expected to abate in the coming months as the effect of the weaker yen wears off. The bad news of recent weeks has added to expectations that the bank will announce another round of QE in the autumn. The answer to the disappointing results of Abenomics thus far may simply be more Abenomics.

abate:引き下げる
wear off:こすれて徐々に消える
thus far:今までのところは

日曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は海野塾があった。懇親会もあった。今日は十時から英語の勉強があり、一時から建部さんの亜助け会の3周年の記念事業に出席する。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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