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 ¡ÈWeak data to prompt effective support,¡É is how Barclays headlined a typical report Friday. 
There are two problems with this optimistic take. The first is about will: authorities may be more willing to tolerate a slowdown and less enthusiastic about stimulus of the kind used in 2008 since it would delay rebalancing away from investment.  The second is about ability. China¡Çs record of managing growth is not to be taken lightly but the policy that guarantees 8% growth with no booms or busts has yet to be invented. If China suffers a hard landing this year, it will only prove its leaders are human. Odds of a good outcome: 80%.

¡Ö¸ú²ÌŪ¤Ê¡Ê·ÐºÑ¤ò¡Ë»Ù±ç¤òÂ¥¿Ê¤¹¤ëÇ÷ÎϤÎ̵¤¤¥Ç¡¼¥¿¡×¤¬¥Ð¡¼¥¯¥ì¥¤¤¬¶âÍËÆü¤Ë¾ÝħŪ¤ÊÊó¹ð½ñ¤ËÂ縫½Ð¤·¤ò¤Ä¤±¤¿¤ä¤êÊý¤À¡£¤³¤Î³Ú´ÑŪ¤Ê²ò¼á¤Ë2¤Ä¤ÎÌäÂ꤬¤¢¤ë¡£Âè1¤Ï°Õ»×¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤À¡£¡§Åö¶É¤Ï·Êµ¤²¼¹ß¤ò´²ÍƤ˰·¤¤¡¢¤½¤·¤ÆÅê»ñ¤ò²óÈò¤·¤Æ¡¢¥Ð¥é¥ó¥¹¤ò¼è¤êÌ᤹¤Î¤¬ÃÙ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¡¢2008ǯ¤ËÍøÍѤ·¤¿Îत¤Î·Êµ¤»É·ãºö¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤Ï¤¢¤Þ¤êÇ®¿´¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤·¹¸þ¤¬¤¢¤ë¤Î¤«¤âÃΤì¤Ê¤¤¡£ÂèÆó¤ÏǽÎϤ˴ؤ·¤Æ¤À¡£À®Ä¹¤ò´ÉÍý¤¹¤ëÃæ¹ñ¤Îµ­Ï¿¤Ï·Ú¤ó¤¸¤é¤ì¤ë¤Ù¤­¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¯¡¢µÞÀ®Ä¹¤â¤·¤¯¤ÏÉÔ¶·¤Ë´Ø·¸¤Ê¤¯8%À®Ä¹¤òÊݾڤ¹¤ë¤È¸À¤¦À¯ºö¤Ï¤Þ¤À¹Í°Æ¤µ¤ì¤Í¤Ð¤Ê¤é¤Ê¤¤¡£Ãæ¹ñ¤¬º£Ç¯¥Ï¡¼¥É¥é¥ó¥Ç¥£¥ó¥°¤Ë¶ì¤·¤à¤È¤¹¤ì¤Ð¤½¤Î»ØƳ¼Ô㤬¿Í´Ö¤À¤È¸À¤¦»ö¤ò¾ÚÌÀ¤¹¤ë¤À¤±¤À¤í¤¦¡£Îɤ¤·ë²Ì¤Î³ÎΨ¤Ï¡§80%¤À¡£

2. The most insoluble is Europe. It has faithfully followed Robert Feldman¡Çs CRIC cycle: crisis, response, improvement, complacency. The European Central Bank bought the euro zone valuable time with its long-term loans to banks earlier this year; that time has been wasted. This is hardly a novel observation, but Greece isn¡Çt about Greece; the euro zone can survive without it (the reverse is not necessarily true).  Whether it can survive a sudden and disorderly departure that precipitates runs on banks throughout the periphery is another matter. 

2. ºÇ¤â²ò·è¤Ç¤­¤Ê¤¤ÌäÂê¤Ï¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥Ñ¤À¡£¤½¤ì¤ÏÃé¼Â¤ËRobert Feldman¤ÎCRIC¥µ¥¤¥¯¥ë¤Ë½¾¤Ã¤ÆÍ褿¡£¡§´íµ¡¡¢È¿±þ¡¢²þÁ±¡¢ÂÕËý¡£¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥ÑÃæ±û¶ä¹Ô¤Ïº£Ç¯¤ËÆþ¤Ã¤Æ´û¤Ë¡¤¶ä¹Ô¤ËÂФ·¤ÆĹ´ü¥í¡¼¥ó¤Î·ï¤Çµ®½Å¤Ê»þ´Ö¤ò¥æ¡¼¥í·÷¤ËÈñ¤ä¤·¤¿¡£¡¨¤½¤Î»þ´Ö¤Ï̵Â̤À¤Ã¤¿¡£¤³¤Î¤³¤È¤Ï¿·´ñ¤Ê¸«²ò¤È¤Ï¸À¤¤¤¬¤¿¤¤¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢¥®¥ê¥·¥ã¤Ï¥®¥ê¥·¥ã¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¡£¡¨¥æ¡¼¥í·÷¤Ï¤½¤ì¤Ê¤·¤Ç¤ä¤Ã¤Æ¹Ô¤±¤ë¡£¡Ê¤½¤ÎÈ¿ÂФÏɬ¤º¤·¤âÅö¤Æ¤Ï¤Þ¤é¤Ê¤¤¡£¡Ë¸³¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤ë¤«¤É¤¦¤«¤Ë¤«¤«¤ï¤é¤º¡¤¼þÊÕ½ô¹ñ¤Î»ê¤ë½ê¤Ç¶ä¹Ô¤Î¼è¤êÉÕ¤±Áû¤®¤ò°ú¤­µ¯¤³¤¹ÆÍÁ³¤Î¡¢¤«¤Ä̵Ãá½ø¤ÎΥæ¤Ï¤â¤¦°ì¤Ä¤ÎÌäÂê¤À¡£

CRIC¥µ¥¤¥¯¥ë¡§´íµ¡¡ÊCrisis¡Ë¢ªÈ¿±þ¡ÊResponse¡Ë¢ª²þÁ±¡ÊImprovement¡Ë¢ªÂÕËý¡ÊComplacency¡Ë¢ª´íµ¡¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¥µ¥¤¥¯¥ë¤ò·«¤êÊÖ¤¹¤³¤È¡£¥â¥ë¥¬¥ó¡¦¥¹¥¿¥ó¥ì¡¼¾Ú·ô¥Á¡¼¥Õ¥¨¥³¥Î¥ß¥¹¥È¤Î¥í¥Ð¡¼¥È¡¦¥Õ¥§¥ë¥É¥Þ¥ó¤¬»ØŦ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤â¤Î¡£´íµ¡¤¬Íè¤ë¤ÈµÞ¾ì¤·¤Î¤®¤ÎÂкö¤ò¤È¤ë¤¬¡¢»öÂÖ¤¬²þÁ±¤··Êµ¤¤¬²óÉü¤·¤Æ¤¯¤ë¤È¡¢´íµ¡¤Îº¬¸»¤ò½üµî¤¹¤ëÅØÎϤòÂդäƤ·¤Þ¤¦¡£¹½Â¤ÌäÂê¤Ë¼ê¤ò¤Ä¤±¤Ê¤¤¤Þ¤Þ¤Î¾õÂ֤ʤΤǡ¢·Êµ¤¤¬²¼¹ß¶ÉÌ̤ËÆþ¤ë¤ÈºÆ¤Ó´íµ¡¤¬´é¤ò½Ð¤·¤Æ¤¯¤ë¡£¤³¤Î¥µ¥¤¥¯¥ë¤Î¤Ä¤Ê¤¬¤ê¤òº¬¸µÅª¤ËÃǤÁÀÚ¤é¤Ê¤¤¸Â¤ê¡¢·ÐºÑ¤ÎºÆÀ¸¤Ï¤¢¤êÆÀ¤Ê¤¤¤È¼±¼Ô¤Ï»ØŦ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£

To fireproof the euro zone, most everyone outside Germany thinks euro members should share responsibility for each other¡Çs banks (via common deposit insurance) and sovereign debt (via Eurobonds). Germany has refused to countenance this, and presumably won¡Çt until Greece is in the process of leaving the euro. The optimists are convinced that Germany will bend if that¡Çs the price of saving the euro. What they may not appreciate is that there is no single ¡ÈGermany¡É to nod his head when some line is crossed; the country is a mosaic of competing power bases who may not coalesce around a solution in time to save the region. Odds of a good outcome: 60%.

¥æ¡¼¥í·÷¤òdz¤¨¾å¤¬¤é¤Ê¤¤¤è¤¦¤Ë¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Ë¤Ï¥É¥¤¥Ä°Ê³°¤ÎËؤÉï¤â¤¬¥æ¡¼¥í¥á¥ó¥Ð¡¼¤Ï¤ª¸ß¤¤¤Î¶ä¹Ô¡Ê¶¦Ä̤ζä¹ÔͶâÊݸ±¤òÄ̤¸¤Æ¡Ë¤½¤·¤Æ¸øŪºÄ̳¡Ê¥æ¡¼¥íºÄ¤òÄ̤¸¤Æ¡Ë¤ËÂФ·¤ÆÀÕǤ¤ò¶¦Í­¤·¤Ê¤±¤ì¤Ð¤Ê¤é¤Ê¤¤¤È¹Í¤¨¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¥É¥¤¥Ä¤Ï¤³¤ì¤ò»Ù»ý¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤òµñÈݤ·¤ÆÍ褿¡£¤½¤·¤Æ¿ʬ¥®¥ê¥·¥ã¤¬¥æ¡¼¥í¤òÎ¥¤ì¤ë¥×¥í¥»¥¹¤ÎÃæ¤ËÆþ¤ë¤Þ¤Ç¤½¤¦¤·¤Ê¤¤¤À¤í¤¦¡£³Ú´Ñ¼çµÁ¼Ôã¤Ï¥É¥¤¥Ä¤¬¤½¤Î¤³¤È¤¬¥æ¡¼¥í¤òµß¤¦ÃÍÃʤǤ¢¤ì¤Ð¶þÉþ¤¹¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¤ÈǼÆÀ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£ÈàÅù¤¬¼ª¤ò·¹¤±¤è¤¦¤È¤·¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤Ï¤¢¤ëÊý¿Ë¤¬°ìÀþ¤ò±Û¤¨¤Æ¤¤¤ë»þ¤Ë¤¦¤Ê¤º¤¯¤è¤¦¤Ê°ì¤Ä¤Î¡Ö¥É¥¤¥Ä¡×¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¡£¡¨¤³¤Î¹ñ²È¤Ï¤³¤ÎÃÏ°è¤òµß¤¦¤¿¤á¤Ë¤½¤Î¤¦¤Á¤Ë²ò·è¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤ÆÏ¢¹ç¤·¤Ê¤¤¤«¤â¤·¤ì¤Ê¤¤¶¥¹ç¤¹¤ë¸¢ÎϤδðÈפδ󤻽¸¤á¤À¡£Îɤ¤À®²Ì¤Î²ÄǽÀ­¡§60%¡£

3. The most perplexing is America. The fiscal cliff at the end of the year is a problem in itself, and symptom of a larger problem. If all the tax increases and spending cuts programmed to take effect at year-end do so, GDP will suffer a 5% hit. Neither party wants this to happen. The larger problem this symptomises is the parties' inability to agree on any sort of stable fiscal policy that would take the place of the cliff. If they could, there wouldn't be a cliff in the first place. Optimists love to quote Winston Churchill¡Çs line about Americans always doing the right thing after exhausting all other possibilities. 

3. ºÇ¤âÅöÏǤ·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ï¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤À¡£º£Ç¯¤Î½ª¤ï¤ê¤Î¡ÖºâÀ¯¤Î³³¡×¤¬¤½¤ì¼«ÂÎÌäÂê¤À¡£¤½¤·¤Æ¡¢¤è¤êÂ礭¤ÊÌäÂê¤ÎÃû¸õ¤À¡£Ç¯Ëö¤Ë¸ú²Ì¤¬¸½¤ì¤ë¤è¤¦¤Ë¥×¥í¥°¥é¥à¤µ¤ì¤¿¤¹¤Ù¤Æ¤ÎÁýÀǤȻٽк︺¤¬¤½¤¦¤¹¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤¢¤ì¤ÐGDP¤Ï5%¤ÎÂÇ·â¤Ë¶ì¤·¤à¤À¤í¤¦¡£¤É¤ÎÅޤ⤳¤Î¤³¤È¤¬µ¯¤³¤ë¤Î¤òµá¤á¤Æ¤Ï¤¤¤Ê¤¤¡£¤³¤ì¤¬Ãû¸õ¤Ç¤¢¤ë¤è¤êÂ礭¤ÊÌäÂê¤Ï¤³¤Î³³¤Ë¼è¤Ã¤ÆÂå¤ï¤ë°ÂÄꤷ¤¿ºâÀ¯À¯ºö¤ÎÎत¤Ë¹ç°Õ¤¹¤ë¾å¤Ç¤Î¤³¤ì¤é¤ÎÅÞ¤Î̵ǽ¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£¤â¤·Èà¤é¤¬¤½¤ì¤¬½ÐÍè¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤¢¤ì¤Ð¤½¤â¤½¤â³³¤Ï¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¤À¤í¤¦¡£³Ú´Ñ¼çµÁ¼Ôã¤Ï¥¦¥£¥ó¥¹¥È¥ó¥Á¥ã¡¼¥Á¥ë¤Î¸ÀÍÕ¤ò°úÍѤ¹¤ë»ö¤ò¹¥¤à¤¬¡¢¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¿Í¤Ï¤¤¤Ä¤â¤¹¤Ù¤Æ¾¤Î²ÄǽÀ­¤¬Ìµ¤¯¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤«¤éÀµ¤·¤¤»ö¤ò¹Ô¤¦¤È¡£

Yet Congress and the administration have precious little time and incentive to do the right thing. Countless things could happen: Republicans who thought their leaders gave away too much before could force the government to shut down or default on the debt; a lame duck Barack Obama could refuse to override the fiscal cliff and bail out president-elect Mitt Romney; and who knows what the campaign may bring. Odds of a good outcome: 70%.

¤±¤ì¤É¤â¡¢µÄ²ñ¤ÈÅö¶É¤ÏÀµ¤·¤¤¤³¤È¤ò¤¹¤ë°Ù¤Îµ®½Å¤Ê»þ´Ö¤È¤ä¤ëµ¤¤òËؤɻý¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¡£¿ô¤¨¤­¤ì¤Ê¤¤»ö¤¬µ¯¤³¤ê¤¨¤ë¡£¡§¶¦ÏÂÅÞ¤ÏÈà¤é¤Î»ØƳ¼Ô㤬°ÊÁ°¤¢¤Þ¤ê¤Ë¾ù¤ê¤¹¤®¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤Ã¤¿¤È¹Í¤¨¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢À¯ÉܤòÄä»ß¤µ¤»¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤¦¤«¡¢ºÄ̳ÉÔÍú¹Ô¤ò¤µ¤»¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤¦¤«¤âÃΤì¤Ê¤¤¡£¡¨¥ì¡¼¥à¥À¥Ã¥¯¤Î¥Ð¥é¥¯¥ª¥Ð¥Þ¤ÏºâÀ¯¤Î³³¤ò¾è¤ê±Û¤¨¤ë»ö¤òµñ¤ß¡¢ÂçÅýÎθõÊä¤Î¥ß¥Ã¥È¥í¥à¥Ë¡¼¤òµßºÑ¤¹¤ë¤«¤âÃΤì¤Ê¤¤¡£¡¨¤½¤·¤Æ¤³¤ÎÁªµó±¿Æ°¤¬²¿¤ò¤â¤¿¤é¤¹¤Î¤«Ã¯¤âÃΤé¤Ê¤¤¡£Îɤ¤·ë²Ì¤Î²ÄǽÀ­¡§70¡ó

The key takeaway is that while a good outcome is the likeliest scenario for each, the combined probability of all three turning out well is only one-third. And by the way, that¡Çs without throwing in all sorts of other risks such as: Israeli attack on Iran; civil war in Syria; a victory by the populist Lopez Obrador in Mexico; and so on. Is it any wonder that the marginal investor or business would prefer to hold Treasury bonds or sit on cash? And that sort of disengagement can make economic pessimism self-fulfilling.

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The many things that prey on our minds
A big hairball of risk
Jun 4th 2012, 3:09 by G.I.¡¡WASHINGTON

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PERHAPS the most disconcerting aspect of the world¡Çs current flight to safety is the lack of a single overriding threat to justify it. China is slowing, but hardly in recession. Europe is in crisis—but when has it not been in the last three years? And America—well, there¡Çs that fiscal cliff later this year but it¡Çs hard to find any investor thinking that far ahead. The puzzle was underlined by May¡Çs weak jobless report in America. What fundamental factors could explain it? Consider the usual suspects:

¿ʬÀ¤³¦¤Î¸½ºß¤Î°ÂÁ´¤Ê¾õÂ֤˸þ¤±¤Æ¤ÎÈô¹Ô¤ÎºÇ¤âÅöÏǤ·¤¿¶ÉÌ̤Ϥ½¤ì¤òÀµÅö²½¤¹¤ë°Ù¤Îñ°ì¤Î·èÄêŪ¤Ê´í¸±¤ÊÃû¸õ¤¬¤Ê¤¤¤³¤È¤À¡£Ãæ¹ñ¤Ï·Êµ¤¤¬´ËËý¤Ç¤¢¤ë¤¬¡¢ÉÔ¶·¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¡£¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥Ñ¤Ï´íµ¡¤Ë¤¢¤ë¤¬¡¢¡¼ ¤½¤ì¤Ï²áµî£³Ç¯¤ÎÃæ¤Ç¤¤¤Ä¤Þ¤Ç¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¤Î¤«¡©¤½¤·¤Æ¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¡¼ ¤µ¤Æ¡¢º£Ç¯Ãæ¤Ë¤½¤ÎºâÀ¯¤Î³³¤¬¤¢¤ë¤¬¡¢¤½¤ÎÍÚ¤«Àè¤ò¹Í¤¨¤Æ¤¤¤ëÅê»ñ²È¤ò¸«¤Ä¤±¤ë»ö¤ÏÆñ¤·¤¤¡£¤³¤ÎÆñÂê¤Ï¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î5·î¤Î¼å¤¤¼º¶ÈÊó¹ð½ñ¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤ÆÌÀ³Î¤Ë¼¨¤µ¤ì¤¿¡£¤É¤ó¤Êº¬ËÜŪ¤ÊÍ×°ø¤¬¤½¤ì¤òÀâÌÀ¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤ë¤Î¤À¤í¤¦¤«¡©¤è¤¯¤¢¤ëµ¿¤ï¤·¤¤¤â¤Î¤ò¹Í¤¨¤Æ¤ß¤è¤¦¡£¡§

1. Petrol prices rose much less this year than a year ago, and peaked in the first half of April. Retail sales, the most obvious place where petrol prices would be felt, didn't signal distress. 

1. ¸¶Ìý²Á³Ê¤Ï°ìǯÁ°¤è¤ê¤âº£Ç¯¤Ï¤¢¤Þ¤ê¾å¤¬¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¡£¤½¤·¤Æ¡¢4·î¤ÎÁ°È¾¤¬ÄºÅÀ¤Ç¤¢¤Ã¤¿¡£¸¶Ìý²Á³Ê¤¬±Æ¶Á¤µ¤ì¤ëºÇ¤âÌÀÇò¤Ê½ê¤Ç¤¢¤ë¾®Çä¤Ï¶ìÄˤο®¹æ¤òÁ÷¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¡£

2. The current episode of European stress can be traced to Spain¡Çs announcement in early March that it would miss its deficit targets, but equity markets in America didn¡Çt take notice until the Greek elections in the first week of May. That¡Çs too late to explain a slowdown that began in April.

2. ¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥Ñ¤Î¶ÛÄ¥¤Î¸½ºß¤Î½ÐÍè»ö¤Ï¥¹¥Ú¥¤¥ó¤Î3·î½é¤á¤Îȯɽ¤Ë¤µ¤«¤Î¤Ü¤ì¤ë¤¬¡¢ÀÖ»úºï¸ºÌÜɸ¤Ë¼ºÇÔ¤·¤¿»ö¤À¤í¤¦¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î³ô¼°»Ô¾ì¤Ï5·î¤ÎÂè°ì½µ¤Î¥®¥ê¥·¥ã¤ÎÁªµó¤Þ¤Çµ¤¤Ëα¤á¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£¤½¤ì¤Ï4·î¤Ë»Ï¤Þ¤Ã¤¿·Êµ¤¸åÂà¤òÀâÌÀ¤¹¤ë¤Ë¤ÏÃÙ¤¹¤®¤¿¡£

3. Emerging markets are slowing sharply. But even after extraordinary growth, exports to China, Brazil, India and Russia only equal 1.3% of American GDP. And a slowdown in emerging markets would be ambiguous for America by both hurting exports and pulling down oil prices.

3. ¿·¶½»Ô¾ì¤ÏµÞ·ã¤Ë´ËËý¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤·¤«¤·°Û¾ï¤ÊÀ®Ä¹¤Î¸å¤Ç¤µ¤¨¡¢China¡¢Brazil¡¢India¡¢Russia¤Ø¤ÎÍ¢½Ð¤Ï¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Ø¤ÎGDP¤Î1.3%¤Ç¤·¤«¤Ê¤¤¡£¤½¤·¤Æ¿·¶½»Ô¾ì¤Ë±÷¤±¤ë·Êµ¤¸åÂà¤ÏÍ¢½Ð¤Ë»³²¤òÍ¿¤¨¡¢¸¶Ìý²Á³Ê¤ò°ú¤­²¼¤²¤ë»ö¤ÎÁÐÊý¤Ë±÷¤¤¤Æ¡¢¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤ËÂФ·¤Æ¤¢¤¤¤Þ¤¤¤À¡£

It¡Çs tempting to chalk it up to technicalities. Consider the following contrast. GDP grew 2.2% annualised in the first quarter and Macroeconomic Advisers thinks it¡Çs growing 2.4% in the current quarter. But employment growth shows a completely different picture: it plummeted from 225,000 per month in the first quarter to 73,000 so far in the second. 

¤½¤Î¤³¤È¤ÏÀìÌçŪ¤Ê¤³¤È¤À¤È·è¤á¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤¤¤½¤¦¤À¡£¼¡¤Îº¹°Û¤ò¹Í¤¨¤Æ¤ß¤è¤¦¡£GDP¤ÏÂè1»ÍȾ´ü¤ËǯΨ¤Ç¡¢2.2%Áý²Ã¤·¡¢¥Þ¥¯¥í·ÐºÑ¸ÜÌäÃĤϤ³¤Î»ÍȾ´ü¤Ç¤Ï2.4%À®Ä¹¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È¹Í¤¨¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢¸ÛÍѤÎÁýÂç¤Ï´°Á´¤Ë°Û¤Ê¤Ã¤¿³¨¤òÉÁ¤¤¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡§Âè1»ÍȾ´ü¤Î·î¤¢¤¿¤ê225,000¿Í¤«¤éÂèÆó»ÍȾ´ü¤Ë¤ª¤¤¤Æº£¤Þ¤Ç¤Î¤È¤³¤í¡¢73,000¿Í¤Þ¤ÇµÞÍ¤¿¡£

Perhaps in reality employment grew 165,000 every month from January to May but warm winter and off-kilter seasonal adjustment telescoped most of it into the first three months at the expense of the next two. However, I have learned over the years that blaming bad data on seasonalities or technicalities usually reflects wishful thinking. Better to take it at face value. What I think preys on the minds of financial and business-world risk takers is not a single threat but a multitude of them, regurgitated in one big hairball of risk. And all are about policy.

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1. The easiest to understand is China. The fall in credit, property prices and industrial activity are the result of a deliberate government effort to corral inflation and rebalance from investment towards consumption. The downsides of China's tiao kong  (¡Émacro control¡É) are well known: state-directed allocation of credit and investment is wasteful and distortionary. But the upside is that when the taps are opened, the effect is almost immediate. 

1. Íý²ò¤¬ºÇ¤â´Êñ¤Ê¤Î¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¤À¡£Í¿¿®ÏÈ¡¢ÉÔÆ°»º²Á³Ê¡¢»º¶È³èÆ°¤ÎÄã²¼¤Ï¥¤¥ó¥Õ¥ì¤ò¼è¤ê°Ï¤ß¡¢Åê»ñ¤«¤é¾ÃÈñ¤Ø¤Î¥Ð¥é¥ó¥¹¤ò¼è¤êÌ᤹°Ù¤ÎÆþÇ°¤ÊÀ¯Éܤμè¤êÁȤߤηë²Ì¤À¡£Ãæ¹ñ¤Î¹¨观调¹µ¡Ê¥Þ¥¯¥í¥³¥ó¥È¥í¡¼¥ë¡Ë¤ÎÈÝÄêŪ¦Ì̤Ϥ褯ÃΤé¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡§Í¿¿®ÏȤÈÅê»ñ¤Î¹ñ²È¤ÎľÀܤγäÅö¤Ï̵Â̤¬¤¢¤ê¡¢ÏĤߤ¬¤Ç¤ë¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢¹ÎÄêŪ¤Ê¦Ì̤ϽàÈ÷¤¬¤Ç¤­¤Æ¤¤¤ì¤Ð¤½¤Î¸ú²Ì¤ÏËؤÉľºÛŪ¤À¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤À¡£

For example, businesses routinely pay their bills with bank drafts. When the authorities increase bank reserve ratios, those drafts immediately become harder to come by. Investors have learned to put enormous faith in tiao kong: as quickly as the authorities put the brakes on, they can release them. 

Î㤨¤Ð¡¢Ä̾¾¦¼è°ú¤Ï¶ä¹Ô¤Î¼ê·Á¤Ç¤½¤ÎÀÁµá½ñ¤ò»Ùʧ¤¦¡£Åö¶É¤¬¶ä¹Ô¤Î½àÈ÷¶âÈæΨ¤ò°ú¤­¾å¤²¤ë¤È¡¢¤³¤¦¤·¤¿¼ê·Á¤Ïľ¤Á¤Ë¼ê¤ËÆþ¤ì¤Ë¤¯¤¯¤Ê¤ë¡£Åê»ñ²È¤Ï¥Þ¥¯¥í¥³¥ó¥È¥í¡¼¥ë¤Ë¿Âç¤Ê¿®Íê¤òÃÖ¤¯»ö¤ò³Ø¤ó¤ÇÍ褿¡£¡§Åö¶É¤¬¥Ö¥ì¡¼¥­¤òƧ¤à¤äÈݤ䡢Èà¤é¤Ï¤½¤ì¤ò»ÏÆ°¤¹¤ë»ö¤¬½ÐÍè¤ë¡£

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2012ǯ06·î28Æü

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On the Chinese internet, the apathy of the bystanders prompted an outpouring of hysteria about the moral vacuum in China, blamed on prevailing consumerism. Yet is that fair? I can attest that there are few countries where people are quicker to help a foreigner who speaks the national language poorly or more genuinely surprised to receive a tip. The problem is more likely the wish to steer clear of trouble of any kind, fostered by an overly stern state.

Ãæ¹ñ¿Í¤Î¥¤¥ó¥¿¡¼¥Í¥Ã¥È¤Ç¡¤¸«Êª¿Í¤Î̵´Ø¿´¤¬Ãæ¹ñ¤Ë±÷¤±¤ëÆ»ÆÁ¤Î¿¿¶õ¾õÂ֤ˤĤ¤¤Æ¤Û¤È¤Ð¤·¤ë¶½Ê³¾õÂÖ¤ò°ú¤­µ¯¤³¤·¡¤¿»Æ©¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¾ÃÈñ¼Ô¼çµÁ¤òÈóÆñ¤·¤¿¡£¤±¤ì¤É¤â¤½¤Î¤³¤È¤Ï¥Õ¥§¥¢¤Ê¤³¤È¤«¡©¿Í¡¹¤¬¤½¤Î¹ñ¤Î¸ÀÍÕ¤ò¤¢¤Þ¤ê¤¦¤Þ¤¯Ï令ʤ¤³°¹ñ¿Í¤ò¤¹¤°¤Ë½õ¤±¤¿¤ê¡¤¥Á¥Ã¥×¤ò¼õ¤±¼è¤ë¤Î¤Ë¤è¤ê½ã¿è¤Ë¶Ã¤¤¤¿¤ê¤¹¤ë¹ñ¤ÏËؤɤʤ¤¤³¤È¤ò»ä¤ÏÃǸÀ½ÐÍè¤ë¡£ÌäÂê¤Ï
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China¡Çs courts discourage people from helping strangers by arbitrarily punishing people who come to the aid of, say, an elderly person who falls off his bicycle. State media have also so effectively demonised the restive Muslim majority province of Xinjiang that the country¡Çs Han Chinese majority appear to believe Xinjiang people have superhuman powers. I travelled with a Chinese friend and his partner in Kashgar a couple of years ago and he half expected the locals to riot when we were out on the streets.

¼«Å¾¼Ö¤«¤éÍî¤Á¤¿Ï·¿Í¤ò¡¢¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤ß¤ì¤Ð¡¤½õ¤±¤ËÍ褿¿Í¤ò×ó°ÕŪ¤Ëȳ¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤ÆÃæ¹ñ¤ÎºÛȽ½ê¤Ï¸«ÃΤé¤Ì¿Í¤ò½õ¤±¤ë»ö¤ò»×¤¤¤È¤É¤Þ¤é¤»¤ë¡£¹ñ¤Î¥á¥Ç¥£¥¢¤Ï
¼ê¤ËÉ館¤Ê¤¤¿·áŤΥ¤¥¹¥é¥à¶µ¤¬ÂçȾ¤ÎÃÏ°è¤ò¤¢¤Þ¤ê¤Ë»ö¼Â¾å°­Ëâ°·¤¤¤·¤Æ¤­¤¿¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤³¤Î¹ñ¤ÎÂçȾ¤Î´Á̱²¤ÎÃæ¹ñ¿Í¤Ï¿·áŤο͡¹¤òĶ¿ÍŪ¤ÊÎϤò»ý¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È¿®¤¸¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤è¤¦¤À¡£»ä¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¿Í¤Îͧ¿Í¤ÈÈà¤Î¥Ñ¡¼¥È¥Ê¡¼¤È2ǯÁ°¤Ë¥«¥·¥å¥¬¥ë¤Ëι¹Ô¤·¤Æ¡¢Èà¤Ï²æ¡¹¤¬Ä̤ê¤Ë½Ð¤¿»þ¤Ë¸½ÃϤοͤ¿¤Á¤¬Ë½Æ°¤òµ¯¤³¤¹¤³¤È¤òȾʬ´üÂÔ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£

But China¡Çs propaganda machine is nothing if not agile; it swung into motion heralding Mr Oliveira as a hero. He was given a plaque as part of a campaign to encourage ¡Ègood deeds¡É. Mr Oliveira really is a saint; he promptly donated to an orphanage the RMB100,000 ($15,800) he was given by a businessman.

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Oliveira»á¤ò±Ñͺ¤È¤·¤Æ´¿·Þ¤¹¤ë¹ÔÆ°¤Ë¤µ¤Ã¤È°Ü¤Ã¤¿¡£Èà¤Ï¡ÖÁ±¹Ô¡×¤ò¾©Î夹¤ëÀ¯¼£ÀëÅÁ¤Î°ì´Ä¤È¤·¤Æ¡¤µ­Ç°¤Î½Ý¤¬Í¿¤¨¤é¤ì¤¿¡£Oliveira»á¤Ï¼ÂºÝ¤ËÀ»¼Ô¤À¡£¡¨Èà¤Ïľ¤Á¤Ë¥Ó¥¸¥Í¥¹¥Þ¥ó¤«¤é¤â¤é¤Ã¤¿10Ëü¿Í̱¸µ¡Ê15,800¥É¥ë¡Ë¤ò»ùƸÍܸî»ÜÀߤ˴óÉÕ¤·¤¿¡£

Proletariat paradise
At a lunch last week in Hong Kong, attended by local manufacturers, the conversation turned to the southern Chinese factory boom town of Dongguan. The city is the worst, sighed a stylishly dressed garment manufacturer. He was complaining about the new pickiness of migrant labourers. A labour shortage in southern China had made them believe they were in, erm, a proletariat paradise. Many had not returned after the Lunar new year holidays. Ruing that Dongguan¡Çs output growth had dropped to little over 1 per cent in the first quarter of this year, he said manufacturers were looking to invest elsewhere.

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Åì´Ð¤ÎÏäˤʤä¿¡£¤³¤ÎÄ®¤ÏºÇ°­¤Ç¤¢¤Ã¤Æ¡¢Î®¹Ô¤Î¡¢ºÛÃDzù©¤µ¤ì¤¿°áÎàÀ½Â¤¶È¼Ô¤òÀÚ˾¤·¤ÆÍ褿¡£Èà¤Ï½Ð²Ô¤®Ï«Æ¯¼Ôã¤Î¿·¤¿¤Ê¤¨¤ê¹¥¤ß¤ËÉÔËþ¤ò»ý¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£Ãæ¹ñÆîÉô¤ÎϫƯÉÔ­¤Ï¡¢¤¨¡¼¤È¡¢¥×¥í¥ì¥¿¥ê¥¢³¬µé¤ÎÅ·¹ñ¤ÎÃæ¤Ë¤¤¤ë¤³¤È¤ò¿®¤¸¤µ¤»¤Æ¤­¤¿¡£Â¿¤¯¤Î¿Í¤¿¤Á¤ÏµìÀµ·î¤¬½ª¤ï¤Ã¤Æ¤âµ¢¤Ã¤ÆÍè¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£Åìçë¤ÎÀ¸»º¹â¤¬º£Ç¯¤ÎÂè1»ÍȾ´ü¤Ë1¡ó¤ò¾¯¤·Ä¶¤¨¤ë¤È¤³¤í¤Þ¤ÇÍî¤Á¤¿»ö¤ò»ÄÇ°¤Ë»×¤Ã¤Æ¡¢À½Â¤¶È¼Ôã¤Ï¾¤Î¤É¤³¤«¤ËÅê»ñ¤ò¤·¤è¤¦¤È¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤ÈÈà¤Ï¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£

I find it hard to sympathise with rich Hong Kong factory owners who complain that China¡Çs young people are spoiled for demanding double-digit pay rises and hot water in dormitories where most bunk six to a room. Yet perhaps the new realities of China¡Çs labour market will spread investment to the rest of the developing world. The lunch at the Kowloon Tong Club also featured a presentation by the Hong Kong Chinese owner of a shoe factory in Addis Ababa, which he took over from the state for less than $3m.

»ä¤Ï¶â»ý¤Á¤Î¹á¹Á¤Î¹©¾ì½êÍ­¼Ôã¤ËƱ¾ð¤·Æñ¤¤¤³¤È¤¬¤ï¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£Èà¤é¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¤Î¼ã¼Ô¤¬2·å¤ÎĶâ¤Î¾ºµë¤ÈËؤɤ¬°ìÉô²°£¶¿Í¤Î¿²¾²¤Î½É¼Ë¤Ë²¹¿å¤òÍ׵ᤷ¤Æ´Å¤¨¤Æ¤¤¤ë»ö¤òÉÔËþ¤Ë»×¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤±¤ì¤É¤â¿ʬÃæ¹ñ¤ÎϫƯ»Ô¾ì¤Î¿·¤¿¤Ê¸½¼Â¤Ï¾¤ÎȯŸÅÓ¾åÀ¤³¦¤Ø¤ÎÅê»ñ¤Î³ÈÂç¤À¤í¤¦¡£¤Þ¤¿¡¢Kowloon Tong Club¤Ç¤ÎÃë¿©²ñ¤ÏAddis Ababa¤Ç¤Î·¤¹©¾ì¤Î¹á¹Á¤ÎÃæ¹ñ¿Í¤Î½êÍ­¼Ô¤Ë¤è¤ë¥×¥ì¥¼¥ó¥Æ¡¼¥·¥ç¥ó¤ò¸Æ¤Óʪ¤È¤·¤¿¡£¤½¤³¤ò¤«¤ì¤Ï300Ëü¥É¥ë°Ê²¼¤Ç¡¢¹ñ²È¤«¤é°ú¤­·Ñ¤¤¤À¡£ 

He flipped from a photograph of the factory in 1965 to a shot in 2011, which looked much the same. The next slide said, without preamble: ¡ÈOpening by the Emperor.¡É There stood Haile Selassie. It was hard to see what he was doing – cutting a ribbon or unveiling a plaque perhaps. A white executive hovered to his right while an Ethiopian executive grovelled on his left.

Èà¤Ï1965ǯ¤Î¹©¾ì¤Î¼Ì¿¿¤«¤é2011ǯ¤Î¾ìÌ̤ޤǤ᤯¤Ã¤Æ¤ß¤»¤¿¡£¤½¤ì¤ÏËؤÉƱ¤¸¤Ë¸«¤¨¤¿¡£¼¡¤Î¥¹¥é¥¤¥É¤ÏÁ°ÃÖ¤­¤Ê¤·¤Ë¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£¡§¡Ö¹ÄÄë¤Ë¤è¤ëÍîÀ®¼°Åµ¡×¡£Haile Selassie¤¬Î©¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£Èब¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë»ö¤òÍý²ò¤¹¤ë»ö¤ÏÆñ¤·¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£¡¼ ¥ê¥Ü¥ó¤ò¥«¥Ã¥È¤·¡¢Â¿Ê¬¡¢µ­Ç°¤Î³Û¤Îʤ¤¤¤ò¤È¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£Çò¿Í¤Î·Ð±Ä¼Ôã¤ÏÈà¤Î±¦¼ê¤Ë¤¦¤í¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢°ìÊý¡¢¥¨¥Á¥ª¥Ô¥¢¤Î·Ð±Ä¼Ôã¤ÏÈà¤Îº¸¼ê¤Ë¤Ò¤ìÉú¤·¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£

It¡Çs hard to imagine as much fanfare for the new Hong Kong owner, but I propose trumpets across the capital to mark every move from China. The nascent shift in foreign direct investment from Dongguan to Addis Ababa is exciting. The trouble is, many of the businessmen at the lunch didn¡Çt seem convinced. The shoe factory¡Çs new owner had also told them about the creaky railways built more than 100 years ago and the inadequate roads. His anecdotes made them nostalgic for Dongguan.

¿·¤·¤¤¹á¹Á¤Î½êÍ­¼Ô¤Ë¤È¤Ã¤ÆÀ¹Âç¤Ê¥Õ¥¡¥ó¥Õ¥¡¡¼¥ì¤òÁÛÁü¤¹¤ë»ö¤ÏÆñ¤·¤¤¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢Ãæ¹ñ¤«¤é¤Î¤¹¤Ù¤Æ¤ÎÆ°¤­¤òµ­Ç°¤¹¤ë°Ù¤Ë¤³¤Î¼óÅÔÁ´ÂΤ˸À¤¤¹­¤á¤ë»ö¤òÄó°Æ¤¹¤ë¡£Åìç뤫¤éAddis Ababa¤Ø¤Î³°¹ñ¤ÎľÀÜÅê»ñ¤ÎȯÀ¸¤·¤è¤¦¤È¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¥·¥Õ¥È¤Ï¥¨¥­¥µ¥¤¥Æ¥£¥ó¥°¤À¡£Çº¤ß¤Î¼ï¤Ï¤³¤ÎÃë¿©²ñ¤Î¥Ó¥¸¥Í¥¹¥Þ¥óã¤ÏÀâÆÀ¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¤è¤¦¤À¤Ã¤¿¤È¸À¤¦»ö¤À¡£¤³¤Î·¤¹©¾ì¤Î¿·¤·¤¤½êÍ­¼Ô¤Ï¤Þ¤¿100ǯ°Ê¾å¤âÁ°¤Ëºî¤é¤ì¤¿¸Å¤Ü¤±¤¿Å´Æ»¤ÈÉÔ½½Ê¬¤Êƻϩ¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤ÆÈà¤é¤ËÏäò¤·¤¿¡£Èà¤Î°ïÏäÏÅìçë¤ËÂФ¹¤ë¶¿½¥¤ÎÇ°¤òÈà¤é¤ËÍ¿¤¨¤¿¡£

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¤ä¤Ã¤È°ì²óÌܤθ¶¹Æ¤Î¥É¥é¥Õ¥ÈÆɤ߽ª¤¨¤½¤¦¤Ê¤È¤³¤í¤Þ¤ÇÃ夿¡£¤¢¤È5¥Ú¡¼¥¸¤À¡£º£Æü¤Ïξ¿Æ¤Î²ð¸îǧÄê¤ÎÆü¤Ç¡¢º£²ó¤ÏÊì¿Æ¤ÎǧÄê¤Ç¡¢½ÅÅÙ¤Î5µé¤«¤é3µé¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤½¤ÎΩ¤Á²ñ¤¤¤À¡£Î¾¿Æ¤È¤â88ºÍ¤È84ºÍ¤Ê¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤â¤¦³°¤Ë½Ð¤ë¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤Ç¡¢»Ùʧ¤¤¤Ê¤É¤Î¶ä¹Ô½èÍý¤ò¤·¤Æ¤¢¤²¤Ê¤¤¤È¹Ô¤±¤Ê¤¤¡£Êì¿Æ¤Ï¾¯¤·¤Ü¤±¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤¬¡¢Ì¤¤À¤·¤Ã¤«¤ê¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢Î¾¿Æ¤È¤â·ì¿§¤Ï¤¤¤¤¡£¤³¤Î°ìǯ¤Ï¿Æ¹§¹Ô¤ò¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤µ¤Æ¡¢º£Æü¤âÃæ¹ñ¤Î·ÐºÑ¤¬¤É¤¦¤Ê¤ë¤«¤Îµ­»ö¤Î³¤­¤À¡£

With the apparent success of its tighter monetary policy, Beijing now finds it awkward to reverse course by lowering interest rates to keep activity on a steady course and instead has to rely on cutting bank reserve requirements to recharge the system. But if with repressed commercial demand, this option may not suffice.

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Although political pressures to appreciate the renminbi have lessened with declining trade surpluses, more flexible two way currency movements will have little impact in altering trends in the real economy over the coming months.

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Hopes that consumption can play a more dynamic role are probably unrealistic. Consumption has in fact been relatively strong accounting for 43 per cent of GDP growth in the first quarter compared with 28 per cent a year earlier. But by its very nature, consumption is not amenable to special incentives, which typically end up borrowing against the future and thus are not sustainable. Nevertheless, consumption growth averaging 8 per cent annually does provide a solid base that would help cushion all but a total collapse in the global economy triggered by events in the eurozone.

¾ÃÈñ¤¬¤è¤ê¥À¥¤¥Ê¥ß¥Ã¥¯¤ÊÌò³ä¤ò±é¤º¤ë¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤ë¤È¸À¤¦´õ˾¤Ï¿ʬÈ󸽼ÂŪ¤À¡£¾ÃÈñ¤Ï¼ÂºÝ¤Ë¤Ïºòǯ¤Î28%¤ËÈæ³Ó¤¹¤ë¤ÈÂè1»ÍȾ´ü¤ÎGDPÀ®Ä¹¤Î43%¤òÀê¤á¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢Èæ³ÓŪ¶¯¤¯¤Ê¤Ã¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢¤Þ¤µ¤Ë¤½¤ÎÀ­¼Á¾å¡¢¾ÃÈñ¤ÏÆÃÊ̤ÊͶ°ø¤Ë±Æ¶Á¤ò¼õ¤±¤Ê¤¤¡£¤½¤ì¤Ï°ìÈÌŪ¤Ë¤Ï¾­Íè¤ËÂФ¹¤ë¼ÚÆþ¤Ç½ª¤ï¤ë¤·¡¢¤À¤«¤é»ý³²Äǽ¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¡£¤Ë¤â¤«¤«¤ï¤é¤º¡¢Ç¯´Ö8%Ê¿¶Ñ¤Î¾ÃÈñ¤ÎÀ®Ä¹¤Ï·ø¸Ç¤Ê´ðÁäòÄ󶡤·¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢¤½¤ì¤Ï¥æ¡¼¥í·÷¤Î»ö¾Ý¤¬°ú¤­¶â¤È¤Ê¤Ã¤¿¥°¥í¡¼¥Ð¥ë·ÐºÑ¤Ë±÷¤±¤ëËؤÉÁ´ÂΤ¬Êø²õÀ£Á°¤Î¾õ¶·¤òϤ餲¤ë¼ê½õ¤±¤ò¤¹¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£

Chastened by the explosive growth of credit-financed expenditures from the past stimulus programme, China¡Çs system now has to rely on the recently announced fiscal efforts to accelerate expenditures on infrastructure projects including roads, rail and power plants. While more transparent and less prone to waste, the fiscal channel is more bureaucratic with its expansionary impact less readily felt compared with the banking channel. Thus there continues to be a risk that Beijing¡Çs fine-tuning of macro policies will fail to keep growth on the desired trajectory. 

²áµî¤Î·Êµ¤»É·ã¥×¥í¥°¥é¥à¤«¤é¤Î¿®ÍÑÍ»»ñ¤Ë¤è¤ë»Ù½Ð¤ÎÇúȯŪ¤ÊÀ®Ä¹¤ËĨ¤é¤·¤á¤é¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤¬¡¢Ãæ¹ñ¤Î¥·¥¹¥Æ¥à¤Ï¸½ºß¡¢Æ»Ï©¡¢Å´Æ»¡¢È¯ÅŽê¤ò´Þ¤á¤¿¥¤¥ó¥Õ¥é¥×¥í¥¸¥§¥¯¥È¤Ø¤Î»Ù½Ð¤ò²Ã®¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Î¡¢ºÇ¶áȯɽ¤·¤¿¶âÍ»¤Î¼è¤êÁȤߤ˰͸¤·¤Ê¤±¤ì¤Ð¤Ê¤é¤Ê¤¤¡£¤è¤êÆ©ÌÀ¤Ë¡¢¤½¤·¤Æ̵Â̸¯¤¤¤ò¤·¤Ê¤¤¤è¤¦¤Ë¤¹¤ë°ìÊý¤Ç¡¢¶âÍ»¤Îή¤ì¤Ï¶ä¹Ô¶È̳¤Îή¤ì¤ÈÈæ³Ó¤·¤Æ¤¹¤°¤Ë´¶ÃΤµ¤ì¤Ê¤¤³ÈÄ¥¸ú²Ì¤Ë±÷¤¤¤Æ¤«¤Ê¤ê´±Î½Åª¤À¡£¤À¤«¤é¡¢¥Þ¥¯¥íÀ¯ºö¤ÎË̵þ¤ÎÈùÄ´À°¤Ï˾¤ó¤Ç¤¤¤ëµ°Æ»¤Ø¤ÎÀ®Ä¹¤ò°Ý»ý¤·¤½¤³¤Ê¤¦¥ê¥¹¥¯¤¬»ý³¤¹¤ë¡£

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Give chivalry a chance in China
By Rahul Jacob in Hong Kong
May 29 2012

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If you saw a thief reaching into a young woman¡Çs handbag at a crowded street crossing, what would you do? Mozer Rhian Oliveira, a Brazilian manager living in the southern Chinese factory boom town of Dongguan, didn¡Çt hesitate. The 27-year-old hit the man with his umbrella. Two accomplices came to the thief¡Çs aid, however, and chased Oliveira to the lobby of an office building where they beat him with the buckle end of their belts. The Brazilian suffered a bad head wound.

¤â¤·¤¢¤Ê¤¿¤¬¿Í¤´¤ß¤ÎÂçÄ̤ê¤Î½½»úÏ©¤Ç¡¤¼ã¤¤½÷À­¤Î¥Ï¥ó¥É¥Ð¥Ã¥¯¤ÎÃæ¤ËÅ¥ËÀ¤¬¼ê¤ò¿­¤Ð¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤ò¸«¤¿¤é¡¤¤¢¤Ê¤¿¤Ï²¿¤ò¤¹¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¤«¡©Mozer Rhian Oliveira¤ÏÆîÊý¤Î¹©¾ì¤ÇȯŸ¤·¤¿Ä®¤ÎÅìçë¤Ë½»¤ó¤Ç¤¤¤ë¥Ö¥é¥¸¥ë¿Í¤Î¥Þ¥Í¡¼¥¸¥ã¡¼¤À¤¬¡¤¤¿¤á¤é¤ï¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£¤³¤Î27ºÍ¤ÏÈà¤Î»±¤Ç¡¤Ãˤòᤤ¤¿¡£2¿Í¤Î¶¦ÈȼԤ¬¤³¤ÎÅ¥ËÀ¤ò½õ¤±¤Ë¤ä¤Ã¤ÆÍè¤Æ¡¤¤·¤«¤·¤Ê¤¬¤é¡¢
Oliveira¤ò¥Ó¥ë¤Î¥í¥Ó¡¼¤ËÄɤ¤¹þ¤ó¤Ç¡¤¤½¤ì¤Ç¡¢ÈàÅù¤Ï¥Ù¥ë¥È¤Î¥Ð¥Ã¥¯¥ë¤Ç¡¤Èà¤òᤤ¤¿¡£¤³¤Î¥Ö¥é¥¸¥ë¿Í¤Ï¤Ò¤ÉƬ¤Î²ø²æ¤Ç¶ì¤·¤ó¤À¡£

There were witnesses – lots of them, in fact. About 50 people stood by while the good Samaritan was beaten. When this easily cowed correspondent arrived on the scene a couple of days later, there were once again scores of people milling around – including well-built employees of the Peace Fitness gym, who said the security guards ought to deal with such situations.

ÌÜ·â¼Ô㤬¤¤¤¿¡£¡¼ ¼ÂºÝ¤Ë¿ô¿¤¯¤Î¿Í¤¿¤Á¡£¤³¤ÎÁ±ÎɤÊÃˤ¬Ã¡¤«¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë´Ö¡¤Ìó50¿Í¤¬¤½¤Ð¤ËΩ¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£¤³¤Î°Â°×¤Ë¤ª¤Ó¤¨¤¿µ­¼Ô¤¬2Æü¸å¤Ë¸½¾ì¤ËÍ褿»þ¡¤ºÆ¤Ó¡¤¿ô¿¤¯¤Î¿Í¡¹¤¬¤¦¤í¤¦¤í¤·¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£¡¼ 
Peace Fitness¥¸¥à¤ÎÂγʤΤ¤¤¤½¾¶È°÷ã¤â¤¤¤Æ¡¢ÈàÅù¤ÏÊݰ°÷¤¬¤½¤¦¤·¤¿¾õ¶·¤ËÂбþ¤¹¤ë¤Ù¤­¤À¤È¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£

At the barbershop just feet from the site of the attack, a barber said he had heard a commotion but the shop had been very busy. Then he whispered that the assailants were people from the border province of Xinjiang. People had been afraid to intervene because they were known to be such violent people, he said.

¹¶·â¤Î¾ì½ê¤«¤é¤ï¤º¤«¤Ë¿ô¥Õ¥£¡¼¥È¤Î¤È¤³¤í¤Ë¤¢¤ë¾²²°¤Ç¤Ï¤½¤³¤ÎŹ°÷¤ÏÁû¤®¤òʹ¤¤¤¿¤¬Å¹¤¬¤È¤Ã¤Æ¤âË»¤·¤«¤Ã¤¿¤È¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£¤½¤ì¤«¤é¡¤Èà¤Ï½±·â¼Ô¤Ï¿·áŤιñ¶­¤ÎÃϰ褫¤éÍ褿¿Í¤¿¤Á¤À¤Ã¤¿¤ÈÓñ¤¤¤¿¡£¿Í¡¹¤Ï¤«¤«¤ï¤ë¤Î¤ò¶²¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£ÈàÅù¤¬¤½¤¦¤·¤¿Ë½ÎϤò¿¶¤ë¤¦¤Î¤òÃΤäƤ¤¤¿¤«¤é¤À¤ÈÈà¤Ï¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£

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Is China running out of options?
May23 2012
Yukon Huang

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China¡Çs economy seems to be going gradually downhill but with the dips particularly steep at times. When Premier Wen Jiabao announced in March that the growth target would be 7.5 per cent this year, no one took him too seriously since outcomes have always been significantly higher. Beijing was comfortable with growth moderating to around 8.5 per cent for this year compared with last year¡Çs 9.2 per cent but prolonged uncertainties in the eurozone combined with the continuing lid on housing purchases now suggest that a soft landing may be more difficult to realise.

Ãæ¹ñ¤Î·ÐºÑ¤Ï½ù¡¹¤Ë°­²½¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤è¤¦¤Ç¡¢»þ¡¹ÆäËÂçÉý¤Ë²¼Í¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£²¹²ÈÊõ¼óÁ꤬3·î¤ËÀ®Ä¹ÌÜɸ¤Ïº£Ç¯7.5%¤À¤í¤¦¤Èȯɽ¤·¤¿»þ¤Ë¡¤À®²Ì¤¬¤¤¤Ä¤â¤«¤Ê¤ê¹â¤«¤Ã¤¿¤Î¤Ç¡¤Ã¯¤âÈà¤Î¸À¤Ã¤¿¤³¤È¤ò¿¿·õ¤Ë¼è¤ê¾å¤²¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£Ë̵þ¤Ïºòǯ¤Î9.2%¤ËÈæ³Ó¤·¤Æº£Ç¯¤Ï8.5%¤¢¤¿¤ê¤ÎÃæÄøÅÙ¤ÎÀ®Ä¹¤ËËþ­¤·¤Æ¤¤¤¿¤¬¡¢¥æ¡¼¥í·÷¤ÎÉԳμÂÀ­¤¬Ä¹°ú¤­¡¢½»Âð¹ØÇã¤Ë±÷¤±¤ë·Ñ³¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ëÀ©¸Â¤È¤¢¤ï¤»¤Æ¡¤¸½ºß¡¢¥½¥Õ¥È¥é¥ó¥Ç¥£¥ó¥°¤ò¼Â¸½¤¹¤ë¤Î¤Ï¤µ¤é¤Ëº¤Æñ¤«¤â¤·¤ì¤Ê¤¤¤³¤È¤ò¼¨º¶¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£

April¡Çs economic indicators took markets and seemingly even Beijing by surprise in the uniformity of the shortfalls from forecasts. Some have speculated that the leadership has been distracted by the Bo Xilai and Chen Guangcheng affairs on top of the manoeuvring relating to the leadership transition. Industrial production grew by only 9.3 per cent year-on-year compared to the consensus forecast of 12 per cent. Growth in investment and retail sales were also below expectations particularly since various business surveys had been more reassuring. All this was corroborated by the slow growth in electricity sales and tax receipts. 

ͽ¬¤«¤é°ìÍͤËÉÔ­¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È¤¤¤¦¶Ã¤­¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤Æ¡¢£´·î¤Î·ÐºÑ¤Î»Øɸ¤Ï»Ô¾ì¤Î¡¢¤½¤·¤Æ¡¢°ì¸«¤·¤¿¤È¤³¤íË̵þ¤Ç¤µ¤¨¤â´Ø¿´¤ò°ú¤¤¤¿¡£»ØƳ¼Ô¤Î°Ü¹Ô¤Ë´ØÏ¢¤·¤¿¶î¤±°ú¤­¤Î¥È¥Ã¥×¤ËÇößæÍè¤ÈÄĸ÷À¿¤Î»ö·ï¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤Æ»ØƳÉô¤Ï¼è¤êÍ𤵤ì¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È´ö¿Í¤«¤Ï²±Â¬¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¹©¶ÈÀ¸»º¹â¤Ï¹ç°Õ¤·¤¿12¡ó¤Îͽ¬¤ÈÈæ³Ó¤·¤Æ¡¤ÂÐÁ°Ç¯Èæ9.3%¤·¤«À®Ä¹¤·¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£Åê»ñ¤È¾®Çä¤ê¤ÎÀ®Ä¹¤â¤Þ¤¿¡¢´üÂÔ¤ò²¼²ó¤Ã¤¿¡£ÆäËÍÍ¡¹¤Ê¥Ó¥¸¥Í¥¹¤ÎÄ´ºº¤¬¤½¤ì¤ò¤µ¤é¤ËºÆ³Îǧ¤·¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤³¤Î¤³¤È¤¹¤Ù¤Æ¤ÏÅÅÎÏÈÎÇä¤ÈÀǶâ¤Î¿½¹ð½ñ¤Î´ËËý¤Ê¿­¤Ó¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤Æ΢ÉÕ¤±¤é¤ì¤¿¡£¡¡

Particularly worrisome, bank lending has fallen off sharply – with medium and long-term loans down nearly 50 per cent from last year. Firms find profits evaporating with demand becoming increasingly uncertain for those depending on export markets. The problem is not lack of liquidity in the banking system but lack of credible borrowers.

Æä˷üÇ°¤¹¤Ù¤­¶ä¹ÔÂ߽Фϵ޷ã¤Ë²¼Í¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡¼ ÃæĹ´ü¤Î¥í¡¼¥ó¤Ïºòǯ¤«¤é50%¶á¤¯¸º¤Ã¤¿¡£´ë¶È¤ÏÍ¢½Ð»Ô¾ì¤Ë°Í¸¤¹¤ë¿Í¤¿¤Á¤Ë¤È¤Ã¤Æ¡¢¤Þ¤¹¤Þ¤¹ÉԳΤ«¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¼ûÍפˤè¤Ã¤ÆÍø±×¤¬¾ÃÌǤ·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤³¤È¤¬¤ï¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£¤³¤ÎÌäÂê¤Ï¶ä¹Ô¥·¥¹¥Æ¥à¤Ë±÷¤±¤ëήưÀ­¤Î·çÇ¡¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¯¡¢¿®ÍѽÐÍè¤ë¼Ú¤ê¼ê¤Î·çÇ¡¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£

But the final straw came with demand from Europe collapsing last month along with the US market remaining tepid. The reality now is that external demand by itself could subtract a full percentage point from this year¡Çs growth. China analysts have responded by lowering their growth estimates closer to 8 per cent with some even predicting a collapse. This morning the World Bank lowered its forecast to 8.2 per cent.

¤·¤«¤·¡¢ºÇ¸å¤Î°ì·â¤ÏÇ®°Õ¤Ë·ç¤±¤Æ¤¤¤ë¥¢¥á¥ê¥«»Ô¾ì¤È¡¢Àè·î¡¢Êø²õ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥Ñ¤«¤é¤Î¼ûÍפȤȤâ¤Ë¤ä¤Ã¤ÆÍ褿¡£¸½¼Â¤Ï¸½ºß¡¤³°Éô¼ûÍפϤ½¤ì¤À¤±¤Çº£Ç¯¤ÎÀ®Ä¹¤«¤é1%¤ÎÁ´³Û¤ò°ú¤¯¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤ë¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤À¡£Ãæ¹ñ¤Î¥¢¥Ê¥ê¥¹¥È¤Ï´ö¿Í¤«¤ÏÊø²õ¤òͽ¸À¤·¤Æ¤µ¤¨¤¤¤ë¤¬¡¤8%¤Ë¤è¤ê¶á¤¯ÈàÅù¤ÎÀ®Ä¹Í½Â¬¤òÄã¤á¤ë¤³¤È¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤Æ¡¤Åú¤¨¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£º£Ä«¡¤À¤¶ä¤Ï¤½¤Îͽ¬¤ò8.2%¤Ë²¼¤²¤¿¡£

Beijing still has ample financial resources, however, to avoid a crisis. The premier¡Çs recent statement on ¡Ègiving more priority to maintaining growth¡É signalled that decisive actions would now be taken. But with its infrastructure-cum-land sales fueled growth model under stress and exchange and interest rates still tightly managed, it does not have all the necessary policy options at its disposal.

¤·¤«¤·¤Ê¤¬¤é¡¢Ë̵þ¤Ï¤Þ¤À´íµ¡¤ò²óÈò¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤ÎË­É٤ʶâÍ»»ñ¸»¤ò»ý¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡ÖÀ®Ä¹¤ò°Ý»ý¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Î¹¹¤Ê¤ëÍ¥ÀèÅÙ¤òÍ¿¤¨¤ë¡×¼çÀʤκǶá¤ÎÀ¼ÌÀ¤ÏÃǸǤ¿¤ë¹ÔÆ°¤¬¸½ºß¤È¤é¤ì¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¤È¤¤¤¦¹ç¿Þ¤À¤Ã¤¿¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢¤½¤Î¥¤¥ó¥Õ¥é¤ÈÅÚÃϤȤȤâ¤Ë¡¢ÈÎÇä¤Ï°µÎϤ¬¤¢¤ë¤Þ¤Þ¤ÇÀ®Ä¹¥â¥Ç¥ë¤ËÇï¼Ö¤ò¤«¤±¤¿¡£¤½¤·¤Æ°ÙÂؤȶâÍø¤Ï̤¤À¤Ë¸·¤·¤¯´ÉÍý¤µ¤ì¡¤¼«Í³¤Ë»È¤¨¤ëɬÍפʤ¹¤Ù¤Æ¤ÎÀ¯ºö¤ÎÁªÂò¤Î¼«Í³¤ò»ý¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¡£

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Prospects have worsened in part because of the legacy of China¡Çs enormous 2008 stimulus programme. That programme, which relied heavily on credit expansion, pushed growth above sustainable levels and fostered the borrowing spree that spawned the property bubble and inflation, which has absorbed the attention of policy makers ever since. Even as macro conditions have seemingly been brought under control over the past six months, China¡Çs longer-term strategy of becoming less reliant on external demand and investment and more dependent on consumption to drive growth is becoming harder to realise.

¸«Ä̤·¤Ï°ìÉô¤Ë¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¤ÎËÄÂç¤Ê2008ǯ¤Î·Êµ¤»É·ã¥×¥í¥°¥é¥à¤Î°ä»º¤Î¤¿¤á¤Ë°­¤¯¤Ê¤Ã¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤½¤Î¥×¥í¥°¥é¥à¤Ï¤«¤Ê¤êÍ¿¿®³ÈÄ¥¤ËÍê¤Ã¤¿¤¬¡¤À®Ä¹¤ò°Ý»ý²Äǽ¤Ê¿å½à°Ê¾å¤Ë²¡¤·¾å¤²¡¤ÉÔÆ°»º¥Ð¥Ö¥ë¤È¥¤¥ó¥Õ¥ì¤òÀ¸¤ß½Ð¤·¤¿¼ÚÆþ¥Ö¡¼¥à¤ò½õŤ·¤¿¡£¤³¤Î¤³¤È¤Ï¤½¤Î¸åÀ¯ºöºîÀ®¼Ô¤ÎÃí°Õ¤ò°ú¤­¤Ä¤±¤ÆÍ褿¡£¥Þ¥¯¥í¤Î¾ò·ï¤Ï°ì¸«¤·¤¿¤È¤³¤í¡¤²áµî6¥ö·î¤Ë¤ï¤¿¤Ã¤Æ¡¤´ÉÍý¤µ¤ì¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤¬¡¤³°Éô¤Î¼ûÍפÈÅê»ñ¤Ë°Í¸¤·¤Ê¤¯¤Ê¤ê¡¤À®Ä¹¤ò¤ª¤·¿Ê¤á¤ë¾ÃÈñ¤Ë¤µ¤é¤Ë°Í¸¤¹¤ëÃæ¹ñ¤ÎĹ´üÀïά¤Ï¼Â¸½¤¬¤è¤êÆñ¤·¤¯¤Ê¤Ã¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£

Premier Wen has shown no inclination thus far to remove the lid on the commercial housing sector, which broadly defined accounted for some 10 per cent of gross domestic product in recent years. Losing this demand driver cannot be easily offset even if efforts are made to accelerate construction of social housing.

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The Pentagon recently launched one such rotational deployment in Australia, and others are being discussed in the Philippines and elsewhere, although defense officials declined to specify additional countries. One key aspect of the plan, Panetta said, is building multilateral ties through economic and diplomatic avenues, as well as militarily. The advantage of working with several other countries at once is the ability to force Beijing to deal with smaller countries in Asia as a collective and to prevent China from bullying them individually when disputes arise, experts say.

¥Ú¥ó¥¿¥´¥ó¤ÏºÇ¶á¡¢¥ª¡¼¥¹¥È¥é¥ê¥¢¤Ç°ì¤Ä¤Î¤½¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ê¸òÂؤΟ³«¤ËÃå¼ê¤·¡¤Â¾¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤â¥Õ¥£¥ê¥Ô¥ó¤ä¤½¤Î¾¤Î¤È¤³¤í¤Ç¡¤¸¡Æ¤¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤¬¡¤ËɱÒÅö¶É¼Ôã¤ÏÄɲäνô¹ñ¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤ÆÌÀ³Î¤Ë½Ò¤Ù¤è¤¦¤È¤·¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£¤³¤Î·×²è¤Î°ì¤Ä¤Î¼çÍפʦÌ̤ϡ¢¤È¥Ñ¥Í¥Ã¥¿¤¬¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤¬¡¤·³»öƱÍͤˡ¢·ÐºÑŪ¤«¤Ä³°¸òŪ¤Ê¼êÃʤòÄ̤·¤Æ¿¹ñ´Ö¤ÎÏ¢·È¤ò¹½ÃÛ¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤À¡£ÁáµÞ¤Ë´ö¤Ä¤«¤Î½ô¹ñ¤Èºî¶È¤ò¤¹¤ë¥á¥ê¥Ã¥È¤ÏʶÁ褬µ¯¤³¤Ã¤¿»þ¤Ë¡¢
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¡ÈThis is not about containment of China,¡É Panetta said. ¡ÈThis is about bringing China into that relationship to try to deal with common challenges we all face,¡É such as humanitarian assistance and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Taking a multilateral approach means overcoming significant hurdles that have kept some Asian countries from cooperating in the past, said Dean Cheng, an Asian military analyst at the Heritage Foundation.

¡Ö¤³¤ì¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¤òÉõ¤¸¹þ¤á¤ë»ö¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¡£¡×¤È¥Ñ¥Í¥Ã¥¿¤Ï¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£¤³¤Î¤³¤È¤Ï¿ÍÆ»¼çµÁŪ¤Ê»Ù±ç¤äÂçÎÌÇ˲õʼ´ï¤Î³È»¶¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ê¡¢¡Ö²æ¡¹¤¹¤Ù¤Æ¤¬Ä¾Ì̤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¶¦Ä̤βÝÂê¤ò¼è¤ê°·¤ª¤¦¤È¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Ë¤½¤Î´Ø·¸¤ËÃæ¹ñ¤ò¼è¤ê¹þ¤â¤¦¤È¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤³¤È¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤À¡£¡×¿¹ñÀҤΥ¢¥×¥í¡¼¥Á¤ò¼è¤ë¤³¤È¤Ï²áµî¤Ë±÷¤¤¤Æ´ö¤Ä¤«¤Î¥¢¥¸¥¢¤Î½ô¹ñ¤Ë¶¨Ä´¤µ¤»¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¤è¤¦¤Ê½ÅÍפʥϡ¼¥É¥ë¤ËÂǤÁ¾¡¤Ä»ö¤ò°ÕÌ£¤¹¤ë¤È¥Ø¥ê¥Æ¡¼¥¸¥Õ¥¡¥ó¥Ç¡¼¥·¥ç¥ó¤Î¥¢¥¸¥¢¤Î·³»ö¥¢¥Ê¥ê¥¹¥ÈDean Cheng¤¬¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£

¡ÈThese are countries that often don¡Çt like or trust each other. They have unsettled borders, historical grievances. Some of them can¡Çt even agree on basic things like what to call this sea or that island,¡É Cheng said. ¡ÈBut you need that cooperation because there¡Çs nothing in the region equivalent to NATO.¡É Panetta¡Çs message also included a note of caution to some allies to not misinterpret an expanded U.S. presence as cover for more aggressive actions.

¡Ö¤ª¸ß¤¤¤Ë¹¥¤­¤Ç¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¤ê¡¢¿®Íꤷ¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¹ñ²È¤¬¤¢¤ë¡£Èà¤é¤Ï̤²ò·è¤Î¹ñ¶­¡¢Îò»ËŪ¤ÊÉÔËþ¤ò»ý¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤½¤Î¤¦¤Á¤Î¿ô¥«¹ñ¤Ï¤³¤Î³¤¤È¤«¤½¤ÎÅç¤ò¤É¤¦¸Æ¤Ö¤«¤È¸À¤¦´ðËÜŪ¤Ê¤³¤È¤¹¤é¹ç°Õ¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤Ê¤¤¡£¡×¤ÈCheng¤Ï¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£¡Ö¤·¤«¤·¡¢¤³¤ÎÃÏ°è¤Ë¤ÏNATO¤ËɤŨ¤¹¤ë¤è¤¦¤Ê¤â¤Î¤¬²¿¤â¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤¢¤Ê¤¿Êý¤Ï¤½¤Î¶¨Ä´¤¬É¬ÍפÀ¡£¡×¥Ñ¥Í¥Ã¥¿¤Î¥á¥Ã¥»¡¼¥¸¤Ï¤Þ¤¿¡¢¤è¤êÀѶËŪ¤Ê¹ÔÆ°¤ò»Ù±ç¤¹¤ë¤â¤Î¤À¤È¤·¤Æ¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î¸ºß¤ò³ÈÄ¥¤·¤Æ¸í²ò¤µ¤ì¤Ê¤¤¤è¤¦¤Ë¤¹¤ë°Ù¤Ë´ö¤Ä¤«¤ÎƱÌÁ¹ñ¤ËÂФ·¤Æ·Ù¹ð¤Î°Õ¿Þ¤¬´Þ¤Þ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£

In recent weeks, the Philippines, especially, has taken a more bellicose tone in its fight with China over territories in the South China Sea. The area, rich in oil and natural gas, is increasingly the subject of an acrimonious dispute among several countries attending the Singapore conference.

ºÇ¶á¤Î¿ô½µ´Ö¤Ç¡¢¥Õ¥£¥ê¥Ô¥ó¤Ï¡¢Æäˡ¢Æ¥Ê³¤¤ÎÎÎÅڤ˴ؤ·¤ÆÃæ¹ñ¤È¤½¤ÎʶÁè¤Ë¤ª¤¤¤Æ¡¢¤è¤ê¹¥ÀïŪ¤Ê·¹¸þ¤ò¤È¤Ã¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤³¤ÎÃÏ°è¤ÏÀÐÌý¤ÈÅ·Á³¥¬¥¹¤¬Ë­É٤ǡ¢¥·¥ó¥¬¥Ý¡¼¥ë¥«¥ó¥Õ¥¡¥ì¥ó¥¹¤Ë½ÐÀʤ·¤Æ¤¤¤ë´ö¤Ä¤«¤Î½ô¹ñ¤Î´Ö¤Ç¡¢¤Þ¤¹¤Þ¤¹¿Éíå¤ÊµÄÏÀ¤Î²ÝÂê¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤­¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£

¡ÈWe do not take sides on the competing territorial claims,¡É Panetta told those countries in his address, ¡Èbut we do want this dispute resolved peacefully.¡É China — the country claiming the largest portion of the sea and also attracting the sharpest criticism — sent a low-ranking delegation to the conference. The snub was intended as a signal, said Ernie Bower, a Southeast Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. ¡ÈBecause the conference is so important to the Singaporeans, it¡Çs basically China telling them, ¡ÆYou guys need to do more to control your ASEAN brethren — Philippines and Vietnam,¡Ç ¡É Bower said. ¡ÈThere¡Çs clear nervousness over how Philippines are playing their hand.¡É

¡Ö²æ¡¹¤Ï¶¥¹ç¤¹¤ëÎÎÅڤμçÄ¥¤Î²¿½è¤Ë¤âÁȤ·¤Ê¤¤¡£¡×¤È¥Ñ¥Í¥Ã¥¿¤ÏÈà¤Î±éÀâ¤Ç¤³¤ì¤é¤Î½ô¹ñ¤Ë¸ì¤Ã¤¿¡£¡Ö¤·¤«¤·¡¢²æ¡¹¤Ï¤³¤ÎʶÁ褬ʿÏÂ΢¤Ë²ò·è¤µ¤ì¤ë»ö¤ò˾¤ó¤Ç¤¤¤ë¡£¡×Ãæ¹ñ¤Ï¡¼ ¤³¤Î³¤¤ÎºÇÂç¤ÎÉôʬ¤ò¼çÄ¥¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢¤Þ¤¿ºÇ¤â·ã¤·¤¤ÈãȽ¤ò¾·¤¤¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡¼ ¤³¤Î¥³¥ó¥ó¥Õ¥¡¥ì¥ó¥¹¤Ë²¼µé¤ÎÂåɽÃĤòÁ÷¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£É¡¤Ç¤¢¤·¤é¤¦»ö¤¬¤½¤Î¹ç¿Þ¤È¤·¤Æ°Õ¿Þ¤µ¤ì¤¿¤ÈÀïάŪ¹ñºÝ¸¦µæ¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¤ÎÅìÆ¥¸¥¢¤ÎÀìÌç²È¤Ç¤¢¤ë
Ernie Bower¤Ï¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£¡Ö¤³¤Î¥³¥ó¥Õ¥¡¥ì¥ó¥¹¤Ï¥·¥ó¥¬¥Ý¡¼¥ë¿Í¤Ë¤È¤Ã¤Æ¤Ï¶Ë¤á¤Æ½ÅÍפʤΤǡ¢Íפ¹¤ë¤Ë¡Ø·¯Ã£¤Ï¤¢¤Ê¤¿¤ÎASEAN¤ÎƱ˦¡¼ ¥Õ¥£¥ê¥Ô¥ó¤È¥Ù¥È¥Ê¥à¡¼ ¤ò¤â¤Ã¤È´ÉÍý¤¹¤ëɬÍפ¬¤¢¤ë¡£¡Ù¤ÈÈà¤é¤Ë¸ì¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ëÃæ¹ñ¤¬ÌäÂê¤À¡£¡×¤ÈBower¤Ï¸À¤Ã¤¿¡£¡Ö¥Õ¥£¥ê¥Ô¥ó¤¬¤É¤Î¤è¤¦¤ËÈà¤é¤ÎÌò³ä¤ò²Ì¤¿¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤«¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤Ï¤Ï¤Ã¤­¤ê¤·¤¿¶ÛÄ¥´¶¤¬¤¢¤ë¡£¡×

The Obama administration¡Çs overall Asia strategy was developed out of a belief that China responds best to a position of strength, when the United States has other countries working with it. According to senior U.S. officials, the policy reflects an intense study of historical hegemonic shake-ups: the rise of the United States as a global power; Germany¡Çs rise in Europe after World War I; Athens and Sparta. The idea was to turn to history for answers as the United States confronts the next rising superpower: China.

¥ª¥Ð¥ÞÀ¯¸¢¤ÎÁ´ÈÌŪ¤Ê¥¢¥¸¥¢¤ÎÀïά¤Ï¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¹ç½°¹ñ¤¬°ì½ï¤Ë¾¤Î½ô¹ñ¤ÈÏ¢·È¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë»þ¤ËÃæ¹ñ¤¬ºÇ¤â¶¯¤¤Î©¾ì¤Ë¤¢¤ë¤ÈÊÖÅú¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È¸À¤¦°Õ¸«¤«¤éŸ³«¤·¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£¾åµé¤Î¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤ÎÌò¿Í¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð¡¢¤³¤ÎÀ¯ºö¤ÏÎò»ËŪ¤ÊÇƸ¢¤ÎÊѳפÎÇ®¿´¤Ê¸¦µæ¤òÈ¿±Ç¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡§¥°¥í¡¼¥Ð¥ë¥Ñ¥ï¡¼¤È¤·¤Æ¤Î¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¹ç½°¹ñ¤ÎÂæƬ¡¨Âè°ì¼¡À¤³¦ÂçÀï¸å¤Î¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥Ñ¤Ë±÷¤±¤ë¥É¥¤¥Ä¤ÎÂæƬ¡¨¥¢¥Æ¥Í¤È¥¹¥Ñ¥ë¥¿¡£¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¹ç½°¹ñ¤¬¼¡¤ÎÂæƬ¤¹¤ëĶÂç¹ñ¡§Ãæ¹ñ¤ÈÂз褹¤ë»þ¤³¤Î¹Í¤¨¤ÏÅú¤¨¤òÎò»Ë¤ËÍê¤ë¤Ù¤­¤À¤È¸À¤¦»ö¤À¤Ã¤¿¡£

While the ¡ÈPivot to Asia¡É policy last year was meant to reassure Asian allies, many Chinese leaders interpreted it as a U.S. conspiracy to interfere with China¡Çs regional goals and slow its development. The notion of a pivot also prompted concern among European and Middle East leaders that U.S. attention to their regions would wane. As a result, the administration has discarded the word ¡Èpivot¡É in favor of ¡ÈRebalance toward the Asia-Pacific.¡É That new term was the title of Panetta¡Çs speech on Saturday and a message he will try to hammer home as he continues on to Vietnam and India.

¡Ö¥¢¥¸¥¢¤Ø¤Î¼´Â­¡×À¯ºö¤Ïºòǯ¡¢¥¢¥¸¥¢¤ÎƱÌÁ¹ñ¤ò°Â¿´¤µ¤»¤ë»ö¤ò°ÕÌ£¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë°ìÊý¤Ç¡¢Â¿¤¯¤ÎÃæ¹ñ¤Î»ØƳ¼Ôã¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¤ËÃÏ°è¤ÎÌÜɸ¤ò˸³²¤·¡¢¤½¤Î³«È¯¤òÃ٤餻¤è¤¦¤È¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Î¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î±¢ËŤÀ¤È¤½¤ì¤ò²ò¼á¤·¤¿¡£¤³¤Î¼´¤Î¹Í¤¨Êý¤Ï¤Þ¤¿¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥Ñ¤ÈÃæ¶áÅì¤Î»ØƳ¼Ô¤Î´Ö¤Ç¡¢Èà¤é¤ÎÃÏ°è¤ËÂФ¹¤ë¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î´Ø¿´¤¬°à¤¨¤¿¤Î¤À¤í¤¦¤È¸À¤¦·üÇ°¤òÂ¥¤·¤¿¡£·ë²Ì¤È¤·¤Æ¡¢¤³¤ÎÅö¶É¤Ï¡Ö¥¢¥¸¥¢¥Ñ¥·¥Õ¥£¥Ã¥¯¤Î¥Ð¥é¥ó¥¹¤ò¼è¤êÌ᤹¤³¤È¡×¤ò»Ù»ý¤·¤Æ¡¢¡Ö¼´¡×¤È¸À¤¦¸ÀÍÕ¤òÊü´þ¤·¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤³¤Î¿·¤·¤¤¸ÀÍդϥѥͥ忤ÎÅÚÍËÆü¤Î±éÀâ¤Î¥¿¥¤¥È¥ë¤Ç¤¢¤Ã¤¿¡£¤½¤·¤Æ¥Ù¥È¥Ê¥à¤½¤·¤Æ¥¤¥ó¥É¤Ø¤Èι¤ò³¤±¤ë¤È¤­¤ÎÎÏÀ⤷¤è¤¦¤È¤¹¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¥á¥Ã¥»¡¼¥¸¤Ç¤¢¤Ã¤¿¡£

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