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The first is an inability to get beyond patching up. The euro crisis deepened because Europe¡Çs politicians serially failed to solve the single currency¡Çs structural weaknesses, resorting instead to a succession of temporary fixes, usually negotiated well after midnight. America¡Çs problems are different. Rather than facing an imminent debt crisis, as many European countries do, it needs to deal with the huge long-term gap between tax revenue and spending promises, particularly on health care, while not squeezing the economy too much in the short term. But its politicians now show themselves similarly addicted to kicking the can down the road at the last minute.

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This week¡Çs agreement, hammered out between Republican senators and the White House on New Year¡Çs Eve, passed by the Senate in the early hours of New Year¡Çs Day and by the House of Representatives later the same day, averted the spectre of recession. It eliminated most of the sweeping tax increases that were otherwise due to take effect from January 1st, except for those on the very wealthy, and temporarily put off all the threatened spending cuts. Like many of Europe¡Çs crisis summits, that staved off complete disaster: rather than squeezing 5% out of the economy (as the fiscal cliff implied) there will now be a more manageable fiscal squeeze of just over 1% of GDP in 2013. Markets rallied in relief.

º£½µ¤Î¹ç°Õ¤Ï¶¦ÏÂÅޤξ屡µÄ°÷¤È¥Û¥ï¥¤¥È¥Ï¥¦¥¹¤È¤ÇÂç³¢Æü¤ËŤ¤µÄÏÀ¤Î¸å¤Ç·èÃ夷¤¿¤¬¡¢¸µÃ¶¤ÎÁᤤ»þ´Ö¤Ë¾å±¡¤òÄ̲ᤷ¡¢¤½¤·¤ÆƱÆüÃÙ¤¯¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ²¼±¡¤òÄ̲ᤷ¤¿¡£ÉÔ¶·¤ÎÉ԰¤ò²óÈò¤·¤¿¡£¤½¤ì¤Ï¶Ë¤á¤Æ͵ʡ¤Ê¿Í¤ò½ü¤¤¤Æ¡¢1·î1Æü¤è¤ê»Ü¹Ô¤µ¤ì¤ëͽÄê¤À¤Ã¤¿Ìµº¹Ê̤ÎÁýÀǤòËؤɺï½ü¤·¡¢¤½¤·¤Æ¤¹¤Ù¤Æ¤Îº¹¤·Ç÷¤Ã¤¿»Ù½Ðºï¸º¤ò°ì»þŪ¤Ë±ä´ü¤·¤¿¡£Â¿¤¯¤Î¥è¡¼¥í¥Ñ´íµ¡¥µ¥ß¥Ã¥È¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ë¡¢¤½¤ì¤Ï¤«¤í¤¦¤¸¤Æ(ºâ̳¤ÎÊɤ¬°Å¼¨¤·¤¿¤è¤¦¤Ë)·ÐºÑ¤Î5%¤ò¹Ê¤ê½Ð¤¹¤è¤ê¤â´°Á´¤ÊºÒ³²¤ò²óÈò¤·¤¿¡£2013ǯ¤ËGDP¤ÎÃúÅÙ1%°Ê¾å¤Î´ÉÍý²Äǽ¤Êºâ̳¤Î°µ½Ì¤¬¸½ºß¤¢¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£»Ô¾ì¤Ï¤Û¤Ã¤È¤·¤ÆµÞȿȯ¤·¤¿¡£

But for how long? The automatic spending cuts have merely been postponed for two months, by which time Congress must also vote to increase the country¡Çs debt ceiling if the Treasury is to be able to go on paying its bills. So more budgetary brinkmanship will be on display in the coming weeks.

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And the temporary fix ignored America¡Çs underlying fiscal problems. It did nothing to control the unsustainable path of ¡Èentitlement¡É spending on pensions and health care (the latter is on track to double as a share of GDP over the next 25 years); nothing to rationalise America¡Çs hideously complex and distorting tax code, which includes more than $1 trillion of deductions; and virtually nothing to close America¡Çs big structural budget deficit. (Putting up tax rates at the very top simply does not raise much money.) 

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Viewed through anything other than a two-month prism, it was an abject failure. The final deal raised less tax revenue than John Boehner, the Republican speaker in the House of Representatives, once offered during the negotiations, and it included none of the entitlement reforms that President Barack Obama was once prepared to contemplate.

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In America and Europe, roughly half of patent applications are lodged by foreigners. This used to be true in China, but in the past few years filings by locals have surged to three-quarters of the total (see chart 1). Is this because China has suddenly become more innovative? Or is it because government incentives have prompted people to file lots of iffy patent applications, which the local patent office has a tendency to approve?

¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤ä¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥Ñ¤Ç¤Ï¤Û¤Ü¤ÎȾʬ¤ÎÆõö¿½ÀÁ¤Ï³°¹ñ¿Í¤Ë°Ñ¤Í¤é¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤³¤Î»ö¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¤Ç¤âÅö¤Æ¤Ï¤Þ¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢²áµî¿ôǯ¤Ë±÷¤¤¤Æ¡¢¸½ÃϤοͤ¿¤Á¤Ë¤è¤ë¿½ÀÁ¤¬Á´ÂΤΣ´Ê¬¤Î»°¤ËµÞ¾å¾º¤·¤¿¡£¡ÊºòÆü¤Î¿Þ1»²¾È¡Ë¤³¤Î»ö¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¤¬ÆÍÁ³¤è¤ê³×¿·Åª¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤ÆÍ褿¤Î¤«¡©¤â¤·¤¯¤ÏÀ¯Éܤξ©Îåºö¤¬²ø¤·¤²¤Ê¿ô¿¤¯¤ÎÆõö¿½ÀÁ¤ò¾©Î夷¤ÆÍ褿¤¿¤á¤Ê¤Î¤«¡£¤½¤ì¤ò¸½ÃϤÎÆõö¶É¤Ï¾µÇ§¤¹¤ë·¹¸þ¤Ë¤¢¤ë¤Î¤«¡©

There is no reliable way to measure a patent¡Çs value. But one can use a rough-and-ready yardstick: in how many places did the inventors seek a patent for the same technology? If it is a good idea, they will try to patent it in lots of places. If they just want to pocket a Chinese subsidy, they won¡Çt bother.

Æõö¤Î²ÁÃͤòɾ²Á¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Î¿®Íê½ÐÍè¤ëÊýË¡¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢¤À¤ì¤â´Ö¤Ë¹ç¤ï¤»¤Î´ð½à¤òÍøÍѤ¹¤ë¤³¤È¤Ï¤Ç¤­¤Ê¤¤¡£¡§È¯ÌÀ¼Ô¤Ï¤É¤ì¤Û¤É¿¤¯¤Î¾ì½ê¤ÇƱ°ìµ»½Ñ¤ËÂФ·¤ÆÆõö¤òµá¤á¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤«¡©¤â¤·¤½¤ì¤¬Îɤ¤¥¢¥¤¥Ç¥¢¤Ç¤¢¤ë¤Ê¤é¤Ð¡¢ÈàÅù¤Ï¿ô¿¤¯¤Î¾ì½ê¤ËÆõö¤ò¼è¤í¤¦¤È¤¹¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£¤â¤·ÈàÅù¤¬¤¿¤ÀÃæ¹ñ¤ÎÊä½õ¶â¤òÍߤ·¤¤¤¿¤á¤À¤±¤Ê¤é¡¢µ¤¤Ë¤·¤Ê¤¤¤À¤í¤¦¡£

Data from the UN¡Çs World Intellectual Property Office suggest that some of the apparent spurt in Chinese innovation is illusory. Or at least, patents in China are probably less valuable than those in America or Europe.

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Hardly any Chinese inventors seek to patent their ideas abroad. Between 2005 and 2009 fewer than 5% did (see chart 2). In America, the figure was 27%; in Europe, more than 40%. Geeks in the West should not relax, but it is not clear that their Chinese rivals have yet outstripped them.

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The fiscal cliff deal
America¡Çs European moment
The troubling similarities between the fiscal mismanagement in Washington and the mess in the euro zone
Jan 5th 2013

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FOR the past three years America¡Çs leaders have looked on Europe¡Çs management of the euro crisis with barely disguised contempt. In the White House and on Capitol Hill there has been incredulity that Europe¡Çs politicians could be so incompetent at handling an economic problem; so addicted to last-minute, short-term fixes; and so incapable of agreeing on a long-term strategy for the single currency.

²áµî3ǯ´Ö¤Î´Ö¤Ë¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î»ØƳ¼Ôã¤Ï¤ï¤º¤«¤Ë·ÚÊΤò±£¤·»ý¤Ã¤Æ¡¢¥æ¡¼¥í´íµ¡¤Î¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥Ñ¤Î´ÉÍý¤ò¸«¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£¥Û¥ï¥¤¥È¥Ï¥¦¥¹¤ÎÃæ¤Ç¤½¤·¤ÆÊƹñϢˮµÄ²ñ¤Ç¡¢¥è¡¼¥í¥Ã¥Ñ¤ÎÀ¯¼£²È㤬·ÐºÑÌäÂê¤Î°·¤¤¤Ë±÷¤¤¤Æ¤¢¤Þ¤ê¤ËÌò¤¿¤¿¤º¤Ç¤¢¤ê¡¢¡¨¤¢¤Þ¤ê¤ËÅÚÞì¤Îû´üŪ¤Ê½¤Éü¤ËÌ´Ãæ¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢¡¨¤½¤·¤Æñ°ìÄ̲ߤËÂФ¹¤ëĹ´üŪ¤ÊÀïά¤Ø¤Þ¤Ã¤¿¤¯¹ç°Õ¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤Ê¤¤¤Ç¤¤¤ë¤³¤È¤ËÂФ¹¤ëÉÔ¿®´¶¤¬¤¢¤ë¡£

Those criticisms were all valid, but now those who made them should take the planks from their own eyes. America¡Çs economy may not be in as bad a state as Europe¡Çs, but the failures of its politicians—epitomised by this week¡Çs 11th-hour deal to avoid the calamity of the ¡Èfiscal cliff¡É—suggest that Washington¡Çs pattern of dysfunction is disturbingly similar to the euro zone¡Çs in three depressing ways.

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take the planks from their own eyes¡§¥Þ¥¿¥¤ÅÁÂè7¾Ï5Àá You hypocrite, first take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother's eye.¡¡Ñ¦Á±¼Ô¤è¡¢¤Þ¤Å¸Ê¤¬Ìܤè¤êÎÂÌڡʤ¦¤Ä¤Ð¤ê¡Ë¤ò¤È¤ê½ü¤±¡¢¤µ¤é¤ÐÌÀ¤«¤Ë¸«¤¨¤Æ¡¢·»Äï¤ÎÌܤè¤ê¿Ð¤ò¼è¤ê¤Î¤¾¤­ÆÀ¤ó¡£

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Earlier this month, journalists at Southern Weekend, one of the most respected newspapers in the country, went on strike to protest mounting censorship. Their strike gained support from tens of thousands of Chinese, including a gaggle of pinup actresses, former Google China head Kai-Fu Lee and blogger Li. A last-minute deal brought the journalists back to the newsroom. But some have said privately that they are worried about retribution and continuing censorship. Chinese security agents have harassed celebrities who supported the Southern Weekend journalists.

º£·î´û¤Ë¡¢¤³¤Î¹ñ¤ÎºÇ¤âɾȽ¤ÎÎɤ¤¿·Ê¹¤Î°ì¤Ä¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡¢ÆîÊý½µËö¤Î¥¸¥ã¡¼¥Ê¥ê¥¹¥Èã¤ÏÁýÂ礹¤ë¸¡±Ü¤Ë¹³µÄ¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Ë¥¹¥È¥é¥¤¥­¤ò¹Ô¤Ã¤¿¡£ÈàÅù¤Î¥¹¥È¥é¥¤¥­¤ÏÌ¥ÎÏŪ¤Ê½÷Í¥¤ÎÁû¡¹¤·¤¤½¸ÃÄ¡¢¸µ¥°¡¼¥°¥ë¤ÎÃæ¹ñ¤ÎÀÕǤ¼Ô¤Ç¤¢¤ëKai-Fu Lee¤ä¥Ö¥í¥¬¡¼¤ÎÍû¤ò´Þ¤á¤¿¿ôËü¿Í¤ÎÃæ¹ñ¿Í¤«¤é»Ù»ý¤òÆÀ¤¿¡£ÅÚÞì¤Ç¤Î¼è°ú¤Ç¤³¤Î¥¸¥ã¡¼¥Ê¥ê¥¹¥Èã¤ò¥Ë¥å¡¼¥¹ÊÔ½¸¼¼¤ËÌá¤Ã¤¿¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢´ö¿Í¤«¤ÏÊóÉü¤È·Ñ³¤·¤¿¸¡±Ü¤ò¿´ÇÛ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤ÈÈó¸ø¼°¤Ë¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£Ãæ¹ñ¤Î¸ø°Â¤ÏÆîÊý½µËö¤Î¥¸¥ã¡¼¥Ê¥ê¥¹¥Èã¤ò»Ù±ç¤·¤¿Í­Ì¾¿Í¤Ë·ù¤¬¤é¤»¤ò¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£

The online support for Southern Weekend and the long lines at Li¡Çs book signings prove that the Chinese public expects far more from its leaders than when Hu took power in 2002. A new stratum of middle-class Chinese has more to protect and recognizes the checks on unbridled power democratic reforms can bring. ¡ÈWe all hope our country can be stable and wealthy,¡É Li told TIME. ¡ÈOur criticism is our expression of patriotism. We try to change, not to overthrow.¡É 

ÆîÊý½µËö¤Ø¤Î¥ª¥ó¥é¥¤¥ó¤Ë¤è¤ë»Ù±ç¤ÈÍû¤ÎËܤΥµ¥¤¥ó²ñ¤Ç¤ÎŤ¤Îó¤Ï2002ǯ¤Ë¸Õ¶ÓÞ¹¤¬À¯¸¢¤ò¼è¤Ã¤¿¤È¤­°Ê¾å¤Ë¡¢Âç½°¤Ï»ØƳ¼Ô¤«¤é¤â¤Ã¤È¿¤¯¤Î»ö¤ò´üÂÔ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤À¡£Ã滺³¬µé¤ÎÃæ¹ñ¿Í¤Î¿·¤·¤¤ÁؤϤâ¤Ã¤ÈÊݸ¤Ê¤±¤ì¤Ð¤Ê¤é¤Ê¤¤¤È¤¤¤¦»ö¤È̱¼çŪ¤Ê²þ³×¤¬¤â¤¿¤é¤¹¼«Í³¤Ê¸¢ÎϤؤÎÍÞÀ©¤òǧ¤á¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡Ö²æ¡¹¤¹¤Ù¤Æ¤¬²æ¤¬¹ñ¤Ï°ÂÄꤷ¡¢Ë­¤«¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤ë»ö¤ò´õ˾¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡×¤ÈÍû¤Ï¥¿¥¤¥à¤Ë¸ì¤Ã¤¿¡£¡Ö²æ¡¹¤ÎÈãȽ¤Ï°¦¹ñ¼çµÁ¤Îɽ¸½¤À¡£²æ¡¹¤ÏÊѤ¨¤è¤¦¤È¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤¢¤Ã¤Æ¡¢Å¾Ê¤¤µ¤»¤è¤¦¤È¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¡£¡×

Just as Li was in Beijing for his book event, pollution in the Chinese capital soared to record hazardous levels. The pall was so toxic it far surpassed the highest notch on the yardstick the U.S. uses to measure pollution, causing American monitoring equipment in Beijing to label the pollution ¡Èbeyond index.¡É One of the reasons for the noxious air is a spike in people burning coal to keep warm during this freezing winter. Previously, Chinese authorities tended to underplay the smog, referring to it as ¡Èfog¡É and arguing implausibly that Beijing¡Çs air has improved every year for the past 14 years. But this horrible air was hard to ignore. Even the People¡Çs Daily, the Communist Party¡Çs mouthpiece, ran a front-page story on the pollution. The capital will eventually defrost and winds always clear away the pollution for a time. But a Beijing spring that heralds lasting political reform? Don¡Çt hold your breath.

ÃúÅÙ¡¢Íû¤¬Èà¤ÎËܤΥ¤¥Ù¥ó¥È¤ÇË̵þ¤Ë¤¤¤¿¤È¤­Ãæ¹ñ¤Î¼óÅԤθø³²¤Ï´í¸±¤Ê¿å½à¤òµ­Ï¿¤¹¤ë¤Þ¤Ç¤Ë¾å¾º¤·¤¿¡£¤³¤Î¤È¤Ð¤ê¤Ï¤¢¤Þ¤ê¤ËÍ­³²¤Ç¡¢¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤¬¸ø³²Â¬Äê¤ËÍøÍѤ·¤Æ¤¤¤ë´ð½à¤ÎºÇ¹âÃͤòÍÚ¤«¤Ë±Û¤¨¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£Ë̵þ¤Î¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î´Æ»ëµ¡´ï¤Ï¤³¤Î¸ø³²¤ò¡Ö¬ÄêÎΰ賰¡×¤Èǧ¼±¤µ¤»¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤Ã¤¿¡£¤³¤ÎÍ­³²¤ÊÂ絤¤ÎÍýͳ¤Î°ì¤Ä¤Ï¤³¤ÎÅà¤Æ¤Ä¤¯Åߤδ֡¢ÃȤò¤È¤ë¤¿¤á¤Ë¿Í¡¹¤¬ÀÐú¤òdz¤ä¤¹¤Î¤¬µÞÁý¤·¤¿»ö¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£°ÊÁ°¤«¤é¡¢Ãæ¹ñÅö¶É¤Ï¥¹¥â¥Ã¥°¤ò¹µ¤¨¤á¤Ë¸À¤¦·¹¸þ¤Ë¤¢¤Ã¤Æ¡¢¤½¤ì¤ò¡Ö̸¡×¤È¸Æ¤ó¤À¤ê¡¢Ë̵þ¤ÎÂ絤¤Ï²áµî14ǯ´Ö²þÁ±¤·¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È¤¤¤¦¿®¤¸¤¬¤¿¤¤¤³¤È¤ò¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤­¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢¤³¤Î¶²¤í¤·¤¤Â絤¤Ï̵»ë½ÐÍè¤Ê¤¤¡£¶¦»ºÅÞ¤ÎÂåÊۼԤǤ¢¤ë¿Í̱ÆüÊó¤Ç¤µ¤¨¡¢¸ø³²¤òÂè°ìÌ̤ˤΤ»¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¼óÅԤ褦¤ä¤¯¡¢°ì»þŪ¤Ë¡¢Áú¤ò½üµî¤·¡¢¸ø³²¤òÉ÷¤¬¤­¤ì¤¤¤Ë¤É¤±¤Æ¹Ô¤¯¤À¤í¤¦¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢À¯¼£²þ³×¤ò³¤±¤ë»ö¤ò¹ð¤²¤ëË̵þ¤Î½Õ¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤Î¤«¡©¤¢¤Þ¤ê´üÂÔ¤¹¤ë¤Ê¡£


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How innovative is China?
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Jan 5th 2013

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China has overtaken America again. Its patent office received more applications than any other country¡Çs in 2011. (The numbers were released in December.) But look closer, and the picture is murkier.

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Li responded to the gag order with sartorial subversion, wearing a black face mask.

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Li may have been momentarily hushed, but that didn¡Çt stop his enemies from acting out. At an event in Beijing on Sunday, a man who identified himself as a Maoist tossed a wrapped kitchen knife at Li. (The weapon missed its target.) Li was also punched by another man who reportedly considered his book an attack on China itself. Soon after, a shaken Li contacted my colleague and me, wanting to talk that night in Beijing. (I have interviewed him before.) But just before we set off to see him, Li sent an apologetic text: ¡ÈThe police are taking me away to talk. Can¡Çt meet you anymore.¡É

Íû¾µ鹏¤Ï°ì»þŪ¤ËÀŤ«¤Ë¤·¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤«¤âÃΤì¤Ê¤¤¤¬¡¢¤½¤Î¤³¤È¤ÏÈà¤ÎŨ¤Ë¹ÔÆ°¤Ç¼¨¤¹¤³¤È¤ò»ß¤á¤¿Ìõ¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£ÆüÍËÆü¤ÎË̵þ¤Ç¤Î¥¤¥Ù¥ó¥È¤Ç¡¢ÌÓÂôÅì¼çµÁ¼Ô¤È¼«¾Î¤¹¤ëÃˤ¬Íû¤ËÊñ¤ó¤ÀÊñÃú¤òÅꤲ¤¿¡£¡Ê¤³¤ÎÉð´ï¤ÏÌÜɸ¤ò³°¤ì¤¿¡£¡ËÍû¤Ï¤Þ¤¿Â¾¤ÎÃˤ˲¥¤é¤ì¤¿¤¬¡¢¤½¤ÎÃˤÏÊóÆ»¤Ë¤è¤ì¤Ð¡¢Èà¤ÎËܤ¬Ãæ¹ñ¼«¿È¤ËÂФ¹¤ë¹¶·â¤À¤È¹Í¤¨¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£¤¹¤°¸å¤Ç¡¢Æ°Íɤ·¤¿Íû¤Ï»ä¤ÎÃç´Ö¤È»ä¤ËÏ¢Íí¤·¤ÆÍè¤Æ¡¢Ë̵þ¤Ç¤½¤ÎÌëÏäò¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤òµá¤á¤ÆÍ褿¡£¡Ê»ä¤ÏÈà¤Ë°ÊÁ°¥¤¥ó¥¿¥Ó¥å¡¼¤·¤¿¤³¤È¤¬¤¢¤Ã¤¿¡£¡Ë¤·¤«¤·¡¢²æ¡¹¤¬Èà¤Ë²ñ¤ª¤¦¤È¤¹¤ëľÁ°¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¡¢Íû¤Ï¿½¤·Ê¬¤±¤Ê¤µ¤½¤¦¤Êʸ¾Ï¤òÁ÷¤Ã¤ÆÍ褿¡£¡Ö·Ù»¡¤¬Ïäò¤µ¤»¤Ê¤¤¤è¤¦¤Ë¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£ÆóÅ٤Ȥ¢¤Ê¤¿¤Ë¤¢¤¦¤³¤È¤Ï½ÐÍè¤Ê¤¤¡£¡×

On Jan. 15, when Li had moved on to Shenzhen — the boomtown where Deng Xiaoping unleashed his famous economic reforms — he was finally able to talk by phone. More than 3,000 people had shown up that day at his book signing, the kind of adulation an author craves. But Li was dejected. Mysterious men snapped his photo, while others yelled, ¡ÈDown with traitor Li Chengpeng.¡É His luggage, full of important documents, had gone missing. The knife-wielding man in Beijing has been released. ¡ÈThe excessive concentration of power in China has resulted in the law being controlled by the powerful,¡É says Li. ¡ÈIf there is not even freedom of speech, then I¡Çm not optimistic about political reform at all.¡É

1·î15Æü¤ËÍû¾µ鹏¤¬¿¼圳¤Ë°ÜÆ°¤·¤¿»þ¡¼ ûý¾®Ê¿¤¬Í­Ì¾¤Ê·ÐºÑ²þ³×¤ò¹Ô¤Ã¤¿¿¶¶½ÅÔ»Ô¤À¤¬¡¼ Èà¤Ï¤È¤¦¤È¤¦ÅÅÏäÇÏäò¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤¿¡£»°Àé¿Í°Ê¾å¤Î¿Í¤¿¤Á¤¬Èà¤ÎËܤΥµ¥¤¥ó²ñ¤Ë¤½¤ÎÆü¸½¤ì¤¿¡£¤³¤ì¤ÏÃø¼Ô¤¬ÀÚ˾¤¹¤ë¾Þ»¿¤ÎÎत¤À¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢Íû¤ÏÍîÃÀ¤·¤¿¡£¿Í¡¹¤¬¡ÖÈ¿µÕ¼ÔÍû¾µ鹏¤òÅݤ»¡×¤È¶«¤ó¤Ç¤¤¤ë¤È¤³¤í¤òÉԲIJò¤Ê¿Í¤¿¤Á¤¬¼Ì¿¿¤ò»£¤Ã¤¿¡£Èà¤Î¥È¥é¥ó¥¯¤Ï½ÅÍפʽñÎब°ìÇÕÆþ¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤¿¤¬¡¢¤Ê¤¯¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤Ã¤¿¡£Ë̵þ¤ÇÊñÃú¤ò¿¶¤ê²ó¤·¤¿ÃˤϼáÊü¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£¡ÖÃæ¹ñ¤Ë±÷¤±¤ë¸¢ÎϤβáÅ٤ν¸Ã椬¸¢ÎϼԤˤè¤Ã¤Æ´ÉÍý¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ëË¡¤Î·ë²Ì¤À¡£¡×¤ÈÍû¤Ï¸À¤¦¡£¡Ö¤â¤·¸ÀÏÀ¤Î¼«Í³¤µ¤¨¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤Ç¤¢¤ì¤Ð¡¢»ä¤ÏÀ¯¼£²þ³×¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤Ï¤Þ¤Ã¤¿¤¯³Ú´Ñ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¡£¡×

It has been just two months since China¡Çs new leader Xi Jinping became the most powerful man in the world¡Çs most populous nation. After a decade of paralysis under Xi¡Çs predecessor Hu Jintao, hopes have proliferated that Xi — a grinning, vigorous figure whose father was a reformist Communist Party elder — might prove more open to political liberalization. To expect Xi to suddenly tear down the Bamboo Curtain just weeks into a 10-year tenure is unrealistic. But beyond the lip service the new Chinese Communist Party chief has paid to tackling corruption and promoting the constitution, there¡Çs not much to indicate any major commitment toward reforming China politically. Hu himself talked an awful lot about reform when he first came to power. It didn¡Çt happen.

Ãæ¹ñ¤Î¿·¤·¤¤»ØƳ¼Ô½¬¶áÊ¿¤¬À¤³¦¤ÇºÇ¤â¿Í¸ý¤Î¿¤¤¹ñ²È¤ÎºÇ¤â¸¢ÎϤΤ¢¤ëÃˤˤʤäƤ«¤éÃúÅÙ£²¥ö·î¤¬·Ð¤Ã¤¿¡£½¬¤ÎÁ°Ç¤¼Ô¸Õ¶ÓÞ¹¤ÎËãáã¾õÂÖ¤Î10ǯ¤Î¸å¤Ç¡¢½¬¤Ï¡¼ Èà¤ÎÉ㤬²þ³×Çɤ榻ºÅÞ¤ÎĹϷ¤Ç¡¢¥Ë¥³¥Ë¥³¤·¤Æ¡¢³èÎϤˤ¢¤Õ¤ì¤¿»Ñ¤Ç¡¢¡¼ À¯¼£¤Î¼«Í³²½¤ËÂФ·¤Æ¤è¤ê³«ÊüŪ¤Ç¤¢¤ë¤³¤È¤ò¼¨¤¹¤«¤âÃΤì¤Ê¤¤¤È¸À¤¦´õ˾¤¬ÁýÂ礷¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£10ǯ¤ÎǤ´ü¤ÎÃæ¤Ç¤Î¤¿¤Ã¤¿¿ô½µ´Ö¤ÇÆÍÁ³ÃݤΥ«¡¼¥Æ¥ó¤ò²õ¤¹¤³¤È¤ò½¬¤Ë´üÂÔ¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤Ï¸½¼ÂŪ¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢¥ê¥Ã¥×¥µ¡¼¥Ó¥¹¤ò¾è¤ê±Û¤¨¤Æ¡¢¤³¤Î¿·¤·¤¤Ãæ¹ñ¤Î¶¦»ºÅޤμóŤÏÉåÇԤ˼è¤êÁȤߡ¢Ãæ¹ñ¤òÀ¯¼£Åª¤Ë²þ³×¤¹¤ë»ö¤Ø¤ÎÇ¡²¿¤Ê¤ëÂ礭¤Ê¥³¥ß¥Ã¥È¥á¥ó¥È¤Ï¤¢¤Þ¤ê¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤·ûË¡¤ò¿ä¿Ê¤¹¤ë»ö¤ËÃíÎϤ·¤ÆÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¸Õ¶ÓÞ¹¼«¿È¤ÏÈबºÇ½é¤Ë¸¢ÎϤò¾¸°®¤¹¤ë¤è¤¦¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤¿»þ¤Ë²þ³×¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¼Â¤Ë¤¿¤¯¤µ¤ó¤Î»ö¤òÏäò¤·¤¿¡£¤½¤ì¤Ïµ¯¤³¤é¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£

º£Æü¤Ï¤³¤ì¤Þ¤Ç¡£¤³¤ì¤«¤é¹ÓÀî¤Îξ¿Æ¤Î²È¤ò½Ð¤Æ¡¢¼«Âð¤Ë¸þ¤«¤¦¡£¿ÆÉã¤Ï½÷»Ò°åÂç¤ËÆþ±¡¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤¬¡¢Êì¿Æ¤Ïº£Æü¤«¤é¥±¥¢¥µ¡¼¥Ó¥¹¤ò¼õ¤±¤ë¤¿¤á¤ËÊ̤ΤȤ³¤í¤Ë¹Ô¤¯¡£º£Æü¤Ç¡¢£·£°Ç¯¶á¤¯½»¤ó¤À²È¤È¤ªÊ̤ì¤À¡£»ä¤È°ì½ï¤Ë²á¤´¤·¤¿º£Æü¤¬ºÇ¸å¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¡£¼¡¤Î¤È¤³¤í¤Ï¥Î¥í¥¦¥£¡¼¥ë¥¹¤ò¤¦¤Ä¤ë¤È¤¤¤±¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤Ç¡¢Ì̲ñ½ÐÍè¤Ê¤¤¡£¿ÆÉ㤬¤¦¤Þ¤¯Âౡ½ÐÍè¤ì¤Ð¡¢°ì½ï¤Ë½»¤à»ÜÀߤòõ¤¹¤³¤È¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¡£¤¤¤º¤ì¤Ë¤·¤Æ¤âÈàÅù¤ÎÂ礭¤Êžµ¡¤À¡££²·î¤Ë¤Ï¤³¤Î²È¤â²õ¤¹¤³¤È¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¡£¤½¤ì¤Ç¤Ï¤³¤ì¤«¤é°ÜÆ°¤¹¤ë¡£Êì¤È¤ÏºÇ¸å¤Î°ìÈÕ¤ò²á¤´¤¹¤³¤È¤¬¤Ç¤­¤¿¡£¤â¤¦¤³¤¦¤·¤¿¤È¤­¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¤À¤í¤¦¡£¤¢¤ê¤¬¤¿¤¤»ö¤À¡£¤Ç¤Ï¤Þ¤¿ÌÀÆü¡£
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The revisionists¡Ç real argument over perceptions of Japan¡Çs wartime conduct is that their country was treated to victor¡Çs justice. They reject the pacifist constitution that America imposed. Japan was cast as a junior partner, they maintain, and neutered at home and abroad. The education minister, Hakubun Shimomura, says that the years since the war have been a ¡Èhistory of Japan¡Çs destruction¡É; he and Mr Abe talk about overturning a despised ¡Èpost-war regime¡É. This is a baffling portrayal of the economic miracle—overseen by the LDP, no less—that brought peace and prosperity to the region.

ÆüËܤÎÀïÁè¹Ô°Ù¤Îǧ¼±¤ËÂФ¹¤ëÆüËܤΰۼÁÏÀ¼Ô¡ÊºòÆü¤Ï²þ³×ÇɤÈÌõ¤·¤¿¤¬¤³¤ì¤ËÄûÀµ¡Ë¤ÎËÜÅö¤Î¼çÄ¥¤Ï¤³¤Î¹ñ¤¬¾¡¼Ô¤ÎºÛȽ¤Ç½èÍý¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È¸À¤¦¤³¤È¤À¡£Èà¤é¤Ï¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤¬²Ý¤·¤¿Ê¿Ï¼çµÁ·ûË¡¤òµñÈݤ·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£ÆüËܤϽ¾Â°Åª¤Ê¥Ñ¡¼¥È¥Ê¡¼¤È¤·¤Æ°ÌÃ֤Ť±¤é¤ì¡¢¤½¤ì¤ò°Ý»ý¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢¹ñÆâ³°¤Ç¡¢µîÀª¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£²¼Â¼ÇîʸʸÉô²Ê³ØÂç¿Ã¤ÏÀï¸å¤Ï¡ÖÆüËܤÎÇËÌǤÎÎò»Ë¡×¤Ç¤¢¤Ã¤¿¤È¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£Èà¤È°ÂÇÜ»á¤Ï·ÚÊΤ¹¤Ù¤­¡ÖÀï¸å¤ÎÀ¯¸¢¡×¤òʤ¤¹¤³¤È¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤ÆÏ䷤Ƥ¤¤ë¡£¤³¤Î¤³¤È¤Ï¡¼ ƱÍͤˡ¢¼«Ì±Åޤˤè¤Ã¤Æ´ÆÆĤµ¤ì¤¿¡¢¡¼ ·ÐºÑ¤Î´ñÀפÎÉԲIJò¤ÊÉÁ¼Ì¤À¡£¤½¤ì¤Ï¤³¤ÎÃÏ°è¤ËÂФ·¤ÆʿϤÈÈ˱ɤò¤â¤¿¤é¤·¤¿¡£

We¡Çre all victims now

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In a part of the world that specialises in victimhood, this is dangerous. If Mr Abe rescinds Japan¡Çs 20-year-old apology to wartime ¡Ècomfort women¡É, he will provoke South Korea. The stakes are even higher with China, whose own idea of victimhood is also nourished by its manipulation of history. China is now stoking tensions over the Senkakus. Last month a surveillance plane buzzed the islands, the first recorded Chinese incursion into Japanese-controlled airspace.

Èï³²¼Ô°Õ¼±¤ò¾Ü½Ò¤¹¤ëÀ¤³¦¤Î°ìÉô¤È¤·¤Æ¤³¤¦¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤Ï´í¸±¤À¡£°ÂÇܻ᤬Àï»þ¤Î¡Ö°Ö°ÂÉءפËÂФ·¤Æ¤ÎÆüËܤÎ20ǯ¤Ë¤ï¤¿¤ë¼Õºá¤òű²ó¤¹¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤¢¤ì¤Ð¡¢Èà¤Ï´Ú¹ñ¤òÊ°³´¤µ¤»¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£¤³¤Î´í¸±¤ÎÅٹ礤¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¤Ë±÷¤¤¤Æ¤Ï¤â¤Ã¤È¹â¤¤¡£Ãæ¹ñ¼«¿È¤ÎÈï³²¼Ô°Õ¼±¤Î¹Í¤¨¤Ï¤Þ¤¿¡¢Îò»Ë¤ÎÁàºî¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤ÆÁýÉý¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£Ãæ¹ñ¤Ï¸½ºß¡¢Àí³Õ½ôÅç¤ËÂФ·¤Æ¶ÛÄ¥´Ø·¸¤Ë¤¢¤ë¡£Àè·î¡¢Ä廡µ¡¤¬¤³¤Î½ôÅç¤ËÈôÍ褷¡¢¤³¤Î¤³¤È¤ÏÆüËܤ¬´ÉÍý¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¶õ°è¤Ø¤ÎÃæ¹ñ¤ÎºÇ½é¤Î¿¯Æþ¤òµ­Ï¿¤·¤¿¡£

This puts America in an awkward spot. Mr Abe, despite his views on the constitution, wants to cultivate closer ties. When China is aggressive, Mr Abe needs its full support. But that should not extend to rewriting history or provoking China (let alone South Korea). This cabinet is a bad start.

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As Chinese Debate the Need for Political Reform, an Outspoken Blogger Is Attacked
By Hannah Beech
Jan. 16, 2013

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China is suffering its coldest winter in decades. But the chill didn¡Çt stop some 10,000 fans from lining up in three cities to get a signed copy of Li Chengpeng¡Çs latest book, Everybody in the World Knows. With 6.6 million followers on Weibo, China¡Çs version of Twitter, the former investigative journalist is one of China¡Çs most trenchant social critics — even if his latest book had thousands of words excised by censors. Yet on his book tour this month, Li was silenced by authorities who told him that he could take ¡Èno questions from readers, no talking at all — not even ¡Æhappy new year¡Ç or ¡Æthank you.¡Ç¡É At a book signing in Chengdu, the southwestern Chinese city that is his hometown, 

Ãæ¹ñ¤Ï¤³¤Î¿ô½½Ç¯¤Ç¡¢ºÇ¤â´¨¤¤Åߤ˶줷¤ó¤Ç¤¤¤ë¡£¤·¤«¤·¡¢¤³¤Î´¨¤µ¤ÏÍû¾µ鹏¤ÎºÇ¶á¤Î½ñÀҤǤ¢¤ë¡ÖÀ¤³¦¤Îï¤â¤¬ÃΤäƤ¤¤ë¡×¤Î¥µ¥¤¥ó¤¬Æþ¤Ã¤¿ËܤòÆÀ¤ë°Ù¤Ë£³ÅԻԤǣ±Ëü¿Í¤Û¤É¤Î¥Õ¥¡¥ó¤Î¹ÔÎó¤òÁˤळ¤È¤Ï½ÐÍè¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¡£¥Ä¥¦¥£¥Ã¥¿¡¼¤ÎÃæ¹ñ¥Ð¡¼¥¸¥ç¥ó¤Ç¤¢¤ëWeibo¤Ç660Ëü¿Í¤Î¥Õ¥©¥í¥ï¡¼¤ò»ý¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢°ÊÁ°¤ÎÄ´ºº¥¸¥ã¡¼¥Ê¥ê¥¹¥È¤ÏÃæ¹ñ¤ÎºÇ¤â¿Éíå¤Ê¼Ò²ñÈãȽ¤Î°ì¿Í¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£¡¼ Èà¤ÎºÇ¿·¤ÎËܤϸ¡±Ü¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤Æ¿ôÀé¸ìºï½ü¤µ¤ì¤¿¤±¤ì¤É¤â¡£¤±¤ì¤É¤â¡¢º£·îÈà¤ÎËܤΥĥ¢¡¼¤Ç¡¢Íû¾µ鹏¤Ï¡ÖÆɼԤ«¤é¤Î¼ÁÌä¡×¤Ë¤ÏÅú¤¨¤º¡¢¡Ö¿·Ç¯¤ª¤á¤Ç¤È¤¦¡£¡×¤È¤â¡Ö¤¢¤ê¤¬¤È¤¦¡£¡×¤È¤¤¤¦¸ÀÍդǤµ¤¨¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤Ï¤Ê¤é¤Ê¤¤¤ÈÅö¶É¤«¤é¸ý»ß¤á¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£Ãæ¹ñ¤ÎÀ¾Æî¤Ë¤¢¤ë¡¢Èà¤Î¥Û¡¼¥à¥¿¥¦¥ó¤ÎÀ®ÅԤǤΥµ¥¤¥ó²ñ¤Ç¤Î¤³¤È¤À¤Ã¤¿¡£


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Japanese foreign policy
Down-turn Abe
The country¡Çs dangerously nationalistic new cabinet is the last thing Asia needs
Jan 5th 2013

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THE new prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), wants to emphasise security. In economic terms, ordinary Japanese feel vulnerable. The country is back in recession, and doubts are growing about whether the state can meet its long-run commitments to the elderly. In terms of external security, Japan faces the most perilous situation in years. Wayward North Korea is on the way to developing a nuclear warhead and the missile technology to deliver it. Japan has island disputes with all three of its neighbours, Russia, South Korea and China, leaving it diplomatically isolated in its near-abroad. Escalating Chinese aggression over Japan¡Çs control of the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands raises the very real (if underappreciated) prospect of conflict.

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Yet if security is the word, then Mr Abe¡Çs new cabinet rings alarms on both counts. It is short of economic modernisers. Taro Aso, the finance minister, has proposed the sort of budget stimulus he implemented as prime minister in 2008-09, at the height of the global financial crisis. But there has been no attempt to link this short-term splurge to long-term fiscal discipline, and proposals for bold structural reforms are thin on the ground. The idea of joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade grouping, seems likely to be quietly dropped. For the rest, economic policy amounts to bashing the central bank and pandering to the ¡Ènuclear village¡É of big business which wants Japan¡Çs unpopular reactors switched back on.

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In foreign policy the government looks even more alarming. Calling the cabinet conservative misses its revisionist obsessions. It is far from meritocratic, with half the positions going to MPs who inherited Diet seats from their families. Worse, its members are gripped by a backward-looking, distorted view of history that paints Japan as a victim. The great majority of cabinet members favour visits to Yasukuni, the controversial Tokyo shrine that honours war criminals among the soldiers, and reject Japan¡Çs ¡Èapology diplomacy¡É for its wartime atrocities. Almost half of them want school textbooks (which already downplay Japanese atrocities) to be rewritten in ways that obscure the militarism still further. Mr Abe is, alas, steeped in this stuff: his grandfather oversaw occupied Manchuria¡Çs development in the 1930s.

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