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A massive push to urbanise is also under way, which should produce tens of millions of richer citizens seeking retail therapy. McKinsey, a consultancy, forecasts that consumption by urban Chinese households will increase from 10 trillion yuan in 2012 to nearly 27 trillion yuan in 2022 (see chart 1). 

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How much China spends is striking. Even more so is the way it spends. This is now one of the world¡Çs most sophisticated consumer markets, heavily skewed towards expensive goods. Local property barons are now building half the world¡Çs new shopping malls in China, many of them in smaller cities, because even punters without big incomes are becoming big shoppers. Research by IDEO, a consultancy, has found that many young migrant workers earning less than 5,000 yuan ($830) a month will spend a month¡Çs wages on an Apple iPhone.

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That points to another difference from previous consumption booms elsewhere: with the world¡Çs largest e-commerce market at their fingertips, Chinese shoppers are online from the start. As a result, what was once a foreign marketers¡Ç fantasyland is now the world¡Çs fiercest battleground for brands. Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm, calls the Chinese ¡Èincreasingly aspirational and conspicuous consumers¡É who routinely trade up to fancier labels even on staples. Newly middle-class types in cities in the interior are keen to try out new products, especially the ones they have seen on foreign television shows. Jeff Walters of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) points out that even country bumpkins are consuming global media, thanks to the wild popularity of local online-video services. Chinese consumers, he says, were watching the latest season of ¡ÈDownton Abbey¡É on Youku, a video-sharing website, well before it was released in America.

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This passion for fashion is, in theory, good news for multinational marketers. Unlike, say, Japan, where consumers heavily favour local brands, Chinese consumers hold foreign brands in high esteem. Torsten Stocker of AT Kearney, a consultancy, observes that foreign brands are doing well in sectors they introduced to China (chewing gum, chocolate); those that have ¡Èheritage¡É appeal (premium cars, luxury goods) and those where local brands are not trusted, such as powdered baby milk. The world¡Çs fast-food and consumer-goods giants—Procter & Gamble, Pepsi, General Mills and so on—are also big in China, but they are increasingly dogged by local rivals. A recent study by Bain, another consultancy, found that although foreign brands still lead in some areas (biscuits, fabric-softener, bottled water), local brands are surging in others (toothpaste, cosmetics, juice). 

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In the 1950s and 1960s the world economy was transformed by the emergence of the American consumer. Now China seems poised to become the next consumption superpower. In all likelihood, it has just overtaken Japan to become the world¡Çs second-biggest consumer economy. Its roughly $3.3 trillion in private consumption is about 8% of the world total, and it has only just begun. 

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¡ÈThe future of the world will be profoundly shaped by China¡Çs rush toward consumerism,¡É says Karl Gerth, an expert on Chinese consumption at the University of California, San Diego. Although investment made the biggest contribution to China¡Çs growth last year, and although private consumption¡Çs share of output, now at 36%, fell between 2000 and 2010, that trend is unlikely to last, for several reasons. 

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First, boosting the people¡Çs desire to consume is a stated goal of China¡Çs leaders. Higher government spending on health care and pensions may encourage households to save less for such things. Higher interest rates may, paradoxically, discourage thrift if people reach their savings goals faster. Rising wages and an ageing population will also shift the balance towards consumption rather than saving. And although household debt is growing fast, China still has relatively little. 

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Besides, consumption has not fallen in absolute terms. It has, in fact, grown briskly—just not quite as quickly as the economy overall. In dollar terms, China contributed more than any other country to the growth in global consumption in 2011-13, according to Andy Rothman of CLSA, a broker. Moreover, China¡Çs official statistics understate some consumption—spending on housing, for example. 

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Doing it their way 
The market is growing furiously, but getting tougher for foreign firms
Jan 25th 2014 | MIANYANG AND SHANGHAI | From the print edition 

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IN THE the heart of old Shanghai is a magnificent villa that serves as the workplace of Guo Jingming, a provocative young film-maker. ¡ÈTiny Times¡É, his recent blockbuster, follows the travails of some fashionable college girls (pictured, in the walk-in closet of one of them). Its depictions of the high life, rarely shown in Chinese films, have set social networks ablaze; they have also been attacked by the People¡Çs Daily for ¡Èunconditional hedonism¡É. Mr Guo says: ¡ÈSo what? Materialism is neutral, neither positive nor negative.¡É After all, he goes on, China¡Çs cosmopolitans know at any given moment what movies are playing in New York and what fashions are on the Paris runways.

Guo Jingming¡§³Ô·ÉÌÀ 
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Tiny Times¡§¾®»þÂå¡¿¹â¹»»þÂ夫¤é¤ÎÃçÎɤ·4¿ÍÁȤν÷¤Î»Ò¤¬Âç³Ø¤Ë¿Ê³Ø¤·¡¢³ØÀ¸À¸³è¤ò½ª¤¨¼Ò²ñ¤Ë½Ð¤Æ¤¤¤¯²áÄø¤Ç·Ð¸³¤¹¤ëÎø°¦¡¢Í§¾ð¡¢»Å»ö¡¢²È²¤Ë´Ø¤¹¤ëÍÍ¡¹¤ÊÌäÂê¤ò¡¢¤³¤Î¾å¤Ê¤¯¥´¡¼¥¸¥ã¥¹¤ËÉÁ¤¤¤¿ÀĽշ²Áü·à

China¡Çs once-drab and Mao-suited interior is not so far behind. In Mianyang, a middling city in the province of Sichuan, an enormous billboard featuring Miranda Kerr, an Australian supermodel, draped in Swarovski crystals welcomes shoppers to the Parkson shopping mall. It is one of half a dozen high-end malls in town. Luxury sales are exploding there. Local Audi and BMW dealers sell more than 100 cars each a month; Land Rover, Jaguar and Cadillac have just muscled in on the market. 

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Thirty kilometres (20 miles) away in Luxi, a town of 57,000 people, online shopping is hot. The first express-delivery office opened only three years ago, and handled perhaps ten packages a day; today, there are five, each handling 100 packages a day. Even 60km away, in rural Santai county where farm-workers are the customers, one modern shopping mall has sprung up and another is being built. ¡ÈCustomers are evolving very quickly from the low-end market to the middle and high-end,¡É says Yang Shuiying, proud general manager of the Zizhou shopping centre.

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One China is over
First, rising costs mean that bosses must shift from going for growth to enhancing productivity. This sounds obvious, but in China the mentality has long been ¡Èjust throw more men at the problem¡É. One way to get a grip on costs is to invest in labour-substituting technology, not only in manufacturing but also in services. Also, multinationals are falling behind local firms like Alibaba and Tencent in exploiting a surge of big data coming from e-commerce and smartphones. 

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Second, tighter control is another must. GSK¡Çs bosses in London admitted that its problems in China were partly the result of executives acting ¡Èoutside of our processes and control¡É. Managers in headquarters must ensure that executives¡Ç behaviour and safety standards are as high as anywhere else in the world. Chinese consumers are even more active on social media than those in the West, so any scandal is instantly broadcast nationally.

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Our interactive Sinodependency index gauges China's influence on the fortunes of American multinationals

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Lastly, a One China policy no longer makes sense. Most firms set up their local offices when China¡Çs economy was smaller than $2 trillion. Although it will soon be five times that size, many still try to run their operations from Shanghai. That makes little sense when tastes in food, fashion and much else vary between provinces and mega-cities that have populations as big as European countries. Some 400m Chinese do not speak Mandarin. So even as CEOs need to keep a closer eye on standards and behaviour, they should localise marketing and perhaps product development. China is still a rich prize. Firms that can boost productivity, improve governance and respond to local tastes can still prosper. But the golden years are over. 

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Competition is heating up. China was already the world¡Çs fiercest battleground for global brands but local firms, long laggards in quality, are joining the fray. Many now have overseas experience, and some are developing inventive products. Xiaomi and Huawei have come up with world-class smartphones, and Sany¡Çs excellent diggers are taking on costlier ones made by Hitachi and Caterpillar. Consumers will no longer pay a hefty premium just because a brand is foreign. Their internet savvy and lack of brand loyalty makes them the world¡Çs most demanding customers. 

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Some companies are leaving. Revlon said in December that it was pulling out altogether. L¡ÇOreal, the world¡Çs largest cosmetics firm, said soon afterwards that it would stop selling one of its main brands, Garnier. Best Buy, an American electronics retailer, and Media Markt, a German rival, have already left, as has Yahoo, an internet giant. Tesco, a British food retailer, last year gave up trying to go it alone, and entered a joint venture with a state-owned firm. 

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Some of those who are staying are struggling. IBM this week said that revenues in China fell by 23% during the last quarter of 2013. Remy Cointreau, a French drinks group, reported that sales of its Remy Martin cognac fell by more than 30% during the first three quarters of last year because of a plunge in China. Yum Brands, an American fast-food firm, said in September last year that same-store sales in China had fallen by 16% in the year to date. Its problems were partly the result of a government investigation into alleged illegal antibiotic use by its chicken suppliers. 

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Investors no longer celebrate firms with big investments in China. Our Sinodependency Index weights American multinationals by their China revenues. Sino-dependent firms used to outperform their peers, but in the past two years their share prices have done worse than others¡Ç. As Jeffrey Immelt, the boss of GE, puts it, ¡ÈChina is big, but it is hard¡Ä[other] places are equally big, but they are not quite as hard.¡É Companies that want to stay in China will have to put in even more effort. Many will have to change strategy. 

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China loses its allure
Life is getting tougher for foreign companies. Those that want to stay will have to adjust
Jan 25th 2014 | From the print edition

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ACCORDING to the late Roberto Goizueta, a former boss of The Coca-Cola Company, April 15th 1981 was ¡Èone of the most important days¡Äin the history of the world.¡É That date marked the opening of the first Coke bottling plant to be built in China since the Communist revolution.The claim was over the top, but not absurd. Mao Zedong¡Çs disastrous policies had left the economy in tatters. The height of popular aspiration was the ¡Èfour things that go round¡É: bicycles, sewing machines, fans and watches. The welcome that Deng Xiaoping, China¡Çs then leader, gave to foreign firms was part of a series of changes that turned China into one of the biggest and fastest-growing markets in the world. For the past three decades, multinationals have poured in. After the financial crisis, many companies looked to China for salvation. Now it looks as though the gold rush may be over. 

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More pain, less gain
In some ways, China¡Çs market is still the world¡Çs most enticing. Although it accounts for only around 8% of private consumption in the world, it contributed more than any other country to the growth of consumption in 2011-13. Firms like GM and Apple have made fat profits there. But for many foreign companies, things are getting harder. That is partly because growth is flagging, while costs are rising. Talented young workers are getting harder to find, and pay is soaring. 

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China¡Çs government has always made life difficult for firms in some sectors—it has restricted market access for foreign banks and brokerage houses and blocked internet firms, including Facebook and Twitter—but the tough treatment seems to be spreading. Hardware firms such as Cisco, IBM and Qualcomm are facing a post-Snowden backlash; GlaxoSmithKline, a drugmaker, is ensnared in a corruption probe; Apple was forced into a humiliating apology last year for offering inadequate warranties; and Starbucks has been accused by state media of price-gouging. A sweeping consumer-protection law will come into force in March, possibly providing a fresh line of attack on multinationals. And the government¡Çs crackdown on extravagant spending by officials is hitting the foreign firms that peddle luxuries. 

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