2015年04月

2015年04月30日

Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (15)

Box 1.7: Governing the Internet — the need for mechanisms to maintain a unified and resilient network 

The pace of innovation and the highly distributed nature of the Internet require a new approach to global Internet governance and cooperation. As more people rely on the Internet, the question of Internet governance becomes increasingly important. Two kinds of issues exist: technical matters, to make sure all the infrastructure and devices that constitute the Internet can talk to each other; and overarching matters, to address cyber crime, Net neutrality, privacy and freedom of expression.

overarching matter:包括的な/全体にわたる問題

Responsibility for the technical infrastructure of the Internet is dispersed among several organizations, including the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) and the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C), the Regional Internet Registries (RIRs), the root servers’ operators, and the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN). The solutions they propose – policy models, standards, specifications or best practices – spread through voluntary adoption or ad hoc conventions, regulations, directives, contracts or other agreements.

voluntary adoption:自主的な原則の採択
directive:指示

No such systems exist for developing and implementing solutions to the overarching issues. Consequently, governments are feeling pressure to enact national measures to deal with their citizens’ data and privacy concerns. While laws that force the “localization” of infrastructure may be easier short-term solutions than collaborating to define global mechanisms for addressing the issues, the risk is that “data nationalism” could endanger the network effects that underlie the Internet’s ability to drive innovation and create social and economic value.

enact:制定する

To advance the conversation, identify possible solutions and contribute to open, resilient and inclusive Internet governance, the World Economic Forum is embarking on a multiyear strategic initiative to bring together leaders from the public and private sectors with civil society leaders and the technical community to address these issues in an impartial, high-level dialogue. This effort will complement the expert-level discussions taking place at the Internet Governance Forum and various other grassroots and government-led initiatives.
embark:はじめる
impartial:偏らない
complenmet:補完する

Preparedness at the Regional Level Is Different

As most efforts to address global risks are undertaken at the national and regional levels, it is important to look at preparedness from a disaggregated perspective. Figure 1.7 illustrates for each world region those risks for which survey respondents indicated their region is the least prepared. Preparedness reflects a combination of exposure to a risk and the measures that have already been taken to mitigate or prepare for it.

preparedness:準備用意ができていること
disaggregated:再分類された
perspective:観点

It is striking that every region presents a wholly different set of issues for which it is least prepared. For example:
・ High structural unemployment or underemployment is seen as the risk for which Europe is least prepared, followed by large- scale involuntary migration and profound social instability. Both unemployment and migration flows into Europe are expected to remain high on the agenda going forward and are driving factors of social instability.

underemployment:不完全雇用

・North America identifies failure/ shortfall of critical infrastructure, large-scale cyber attacks and failure of climate-change adaptation as the three risks for which it is least prepared. Major breakdowns of infrastructure in the wake of Superstorm Sandy and the sheer number of cyber attacks illustrate the low level of preparedness.

sheer:とてつもない

・Sub-Saharan Africa is considered least prepared for infectious diseases and unemployment. Both are of key importance given recent events and the fact that strong population growth is expected to exacerbate unemployment in the coming years, despite expected economic growth.

exacerbate:悪化させる

・ Many regions, including Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa, also include profound social instability among the risks they are least prepared for.

・East Asia and the Pacific is perceived as least prepared for interstate conflict and failure of urban planning. It is also the only region that reported being least prepared for man-made environmental catastrophes following the 2011 Fukushima incidence.

incidence:発生

・Failure of urban planning is among the first three risks in East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia. In such regions, urbanization is especially rapid and the failure of urban planning can lead to a wide range of catastrophic scenarios from social unrest to pandemic outbreak (Part 2).

Figure 1.7: For Which Global Risks Is Your Region Least Prepared?
10
Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2014, World Economic Forum. Note: Respondents were asked to select three global risks that they believe their region is least prepared for. For legibility reasons, the names of the global risks are abbreviated. Please see Appendix A for the full name and description. Oceania is not displayed because of the low number of respondents.

図の詳細は以下を参照してください。

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_2015_Report15.pdf


legibility:読みやすさ

Conclusion

Drawing on the perceptions of almost 900 survey respondents, this chapter focuses on the threats of social fragility and short-term worries about conflict. Rising socio-economic inequality, weak economic growth, food price volatility and food insecurity, unemployment, large-scale migration and the growing heterogeneity and interdependence of societies are among the key drivers of social fragility. Growing social polarization, isolationism and nationalism in turn have the potential to trigger geopolitical conflicts.

heterogeneity:不均質

The section highlights the interconnections between global risks and trends. A better understanding of global risks and the interconnections between them is key to prompting discussion about how to prepare, mitigate and prevent them. Part 2 of this report analyses in detail selected clusters of interconnected risks and how they could evolve – the interplay between geopolitical and economic risks, challenges related to urbanization in developing countries and emerging technologies.

cluster:集まり

木曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は慰安婦に関しての英文の資料を一日読んでいた。今までの知識が極めて少ないことが分かった。このことは決して私だけではないと思う。戦後の教育の欠落が大きな問題を引き起こしたようだ。その根源はGHQ、報道、日教組だろう。今から日本人の精神を再教育しなければならない。そうしなければ、日本人が威厳を取り戻すことはできない。今日はサッシメーカーの高橋社長、夜はミスミの古橋さんと会食。忙しそうだ。ではまた明日。 

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2015年04月29日

Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (14)

Box 1.6: The road to Paris – is 2015 make or break for climate change? 

In 2015 the international community has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to align the climate change and development agenda. A series of global summits on climate change, disaster risk reduction, financing for development and sustainable development goals could embed into the post-2015 global governance architecture a coherent agenda for tackling interlocking environmental risks. 

once-in-a-generation opportunity:一世代に一度の機会
align:同じ立場に置く/調整する
embed:組み込まれる
architecture:構造
interlock:連動させる
coherent:理路整然とした

Convergence among governments on these decisions could kick-start the next generation of sustainable growth and poverty reduction – through catalysing private finance and scaling low-carbon, climate-resilient investment, especially but not only in developing countries. However, the opportunity will be missed if governments continue to value narrow short-term concerns above the prospect of longer-term global prosperity and environmental security. More vulnerable populations will be consigned to the negative spiral of poverty and environmental degradation. 

catalyse:触媒する/触媒作用を及ぼす
scaling:剥がす
vulnerable population:弱者
consign:追いやる
environmental degradation:環境の悪化

Until recently, the expectation was that governments would struggle to finalize a strong global climate accord in time for the Paris climate conference in December 2015. But is the tide beginning to turn? At the United Nations Secretary-General’s Climate Summit in September 2014, over 1,000 businesses and investors signalled their support for global carbon pricing. So did some 73 countries, covering 52% of global GDP and 54% of global emissions. 

global carbon pricing:グローバルな炭素価格

Major consumer companies and financial institutions see the need to reduce global climate risks and have mobilized action along their supply chains, for example through the New York Declaration on Forests and the move towards climate-friendly coolants. The Oil & Gas Climate Initiative signalled refreshed engagement from major energy producers. 

mobilize:結集する
coolant:冷却材

The hope is that these coalitions of committed businesses could both inject concrete solutions and create a more positive global atmosphere for governments to collectively make decisions in 2015. A positive signal is the agreement between China and the United States in November 2014. A strong set of clear policy signals to the wider business community is needed from the world’s governments on their ambition to tackle environmental risks. The year 2015 is not an opportunity the world can afford to miss.

coalition:団結
inject:注入する
collectively:共同で 
afford to miss:取り損なう 
Technological Risks: Back to the Future 

Back to the Future:また将来に向かって

The risk of large-scale cyber attacks continues to be considered above average on both dimensions of impact and likelihood (see Figures 1 and 1.6) This reflects both the growing sophistication of cyber attacks and the rise of hyperconnectivity, with a growing number of physical objects connected to the Internet and more and more sensitive personal data – including about health and finances – being stored by companies in the cloud. In the United States alone, cyber crime already costs an estimated $100 billion each year.

Hyperconnectivity:a term invented by Canadian social scientists Anabel Quan-Haase and Barry Wellman, arising from their studies of person-to-person and person-to-machine communication in networked organizations and networked societies. The term refers to the use of multiple means of communication, such as email, instant messaging, telephone, face-to-face contact and Web 2.0 information services.


Figure 1.6: The Changing Global Risks Landscape 2014-2015, Technological Risks
12
Source: Global Risks Perception Surveys 2013 and 2014, World Economic Forum.Note: See endnote 25
While the “Internet of Things” (IoT) will deliver innovations, it will also entail new risks. Analytics on large and disparate data sources can drive breakthrough insights but also raise questions about expectations of privacy and the fair and appropriate use of data about individuals. Security risks are also intensified. There are more devices to secure against hackers, and bigger downsides from failure: hacking the location data on a car is merely an invasion of privacy, whereas hacking the control system of a car would be a threat to life. The current Internet infrastructure was not developed with such security concerns in mind. 

entail:引き起こす
Analytics:分析論
disparate:異質の
breakthrough insights:新しい洞察
intensify:増大する
device:仕掛け:方策
downside:マイナス面
whereas:その一方で

The IoT is likely to disrupt business models and ecosystems across a range of industries. While this will deliver innovation, the prospect of many large players across multiple industries being forced to change so radically at the same time raises potential systemic risks such as large- scale disruption in labour markets and volatility in financial markets. A major public security failure could also prevent the IoT from becoming truly widespread.

An important characteristic of global risks, which transpires across the cases included in this report, is their interconnectedness, shown in the Interconnections Map in Figure 2. It is important to stress that risks cannot be seen in isolation. The feedback loops between risks and the fact that they are also driven by underlying trends (Figure 3) raise their complexity and make it more difficult to control individual risks. Over past years, the speed of transmission and the strength of interconnections have increased. The complexity of addressing risks, their likelihood and their potential consequences raise the question of preparedness, on the global, regional, national and local levels.

transpire:明らかになる
feedback loops:フィードバックを繰り返すことで、結果が増幅されていくこと。
transmission:送信/伝達

水曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日の昼は三井化学の松崎さん。もう付き合って長いのに、彼が米国の弁護士の資格を持っていることを初めて知った。謙虚な方だ。今日は1日、英語の資料を読むことにする。気が向いたら小説を書く。今安倍さんがアメリカにいるのと、慰安婦とかアメリカ人の日本人に対する意識とかを勉強するいい機会なので。ではまた明日。

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2015年04月28日

Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (13)

Environment – High Concern, Little Progress 

Over the past decade, awareness has grown regarding the threats posed by environmental change to social, political and economic security. As the Global Risks Perception Survey 2014 highlights, three of the top 10 risks in terms of impact over the next 10 years are environmental risks: water crises, at the top of the table, and failure of climate-change adaptation as well as biodiversity loss (see Figure 1). 

biodiversity:生物の多様性

Figure 1.5: The Changing Global Risks Landscape 2014-2015, Environmental Risks 
40
Source: Global Risks Perception Surveys 2013 and 2014, World Economic Forum. Note: See endnote
Both water crises and failure of climate-change adaptation are also perceived as more likely and impactful than average (upper right quadrant of Figure 1 and Figure 1.5). Global water requirements are projected to be pushed beyond sustainable water supplies by 40% by 2030. Agriculture already accounts for on average 70% of total water consumption and, according to the World Bank, food production will need to increase by 50% by 2030 as the population grows and dietary habits change. The International Energy Agency further projects water consumption to meet the needs of energy generation and production to increase by 85% by 2035.

pushed beyond:を越えられた
dietary habits:食習慣

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes that weather extremes in food-producing regions are already causing price increases and suggests that the impact of climate change on weather patterns and rainfall – causing either floods or droughts – could cut crop yields by up to 25%.

rainfall:降雨量
weather extremes:異常気象

The nexus of food, water, energy and climate change has been identified by the US National Intelligence Council as one of four overarching mega trends that will shape the world in 2030. The risks interconnections map (see Figure 2) shows how survey respondents perceived this nexus to be related also to other risks, including large-scale involuntary migration. 

nexus:結びつき
overarching:包括的な
involuntary migration:非自発的移住

Decision-makers will be forced to make tough choices about allocations of water that will impact users across the economy (Part 3 of this report highlights an approach developed in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin, for addressing this issue). The situation will worsen further if more man-made environmental catastrophes causing shocks to the system happen: more recent examples include the Fukushima power plant disaster threatening to contaminate both freshwater and seawater, or the Deepwater Horizon oil spill contaminating large sections of coast along the Gulf of Mexico. 

Deepwater Horizon:BP社の石油切削施設

Overfishing, deforestation and the inadequate management of sensitive ecosystems such as coral reefs are increasing the stress on food and water systems. Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse was assessed as high impact by respondents, but below average in terms of likelihood (see Figure 1); the latter seems to reflect a misperception. The World Bank estimates that 75% of the world’s poor, or 870 million people, make a living from ecosystems, including tourism and the goods they produce, while 350 million are affected by the loss of coral reefs. Increasingly, decision-makers are realizing that biodiversity loss is not a second-order issue but is intricately linked to economic development, food challenges and water security. 

deforestation:森林破壊
sensitive:繊細な
misperception:誤解
intricately:複雑に

The urgency of coordinated global action on climate change was reinforced in April and November 2014 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s release of its Fifth Assessment Report and the associated update. It reconfirms that warming is unequivocally happening and it is “extremely likely” that human influence has been the dominant cause. Atmospheric concentrations of three major greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) are at their highest level in 800,000 years. Strong evidence of the effects of climate change is already apparent, in terms of sea level rise, shrinking glaciers, warmer oceans and the increasing frequency of weather extremes. 

reinforce:強化する
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:気象変動に関する政府間パネル
unequivocally:はっきりと
Atmospheric concentration:大気濃度
nitrous oxide:亜酸化窒素

Even though all of these risks are well known, governments and businesses often remain woefully underprepared, as illustrated by respondents’ perceptions that relatively little progress has been made on these risks in the last decade (see Figure 3.1). At the heart of the problem is a risk-management approach based on responsive measures that assume things go back to normal after a crisis – an approach that falls short with complex or slowly evolving environmental risks such as climate change. Stakeholders have been slow to address the underlying causes of environmental risks or to address their economic, social, political and humanitarian consequences.

woefully :ひどく
underprepared:準備不足の
fall short:及ばない
humanitarian:人道主義的な
consequences:影響

火曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日はトクヤマの湯浅さんとの会食。今日は三井化学の松崎さんとの会食。最近は勉強の仕方がだんだんワイドになってきていて、今までの規定の資料だけでなく、手を広げることができるようになってきた。物事は固定がすることが一番怖い。絶えず、流動的に動いていかないと世界を俯瞰できない。ではまた明日。

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2015年04月27日

Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (12)

Box 1.4: Recent advances in the global regulation of the financial system

The global financial system is undergoing massive structural change as a result not only of the crisis but of the regulatory changes in its wake. The very fact that the whole post-crisis regulatory overhaul has been spearheaded by the Financial Stability Board and G20, i.e. with explicit political backing by a global set of policy-makers, is very innovative and has not been the case in setting international regulatory standards before. The past five years have witnessed a profound change of international regulatory standards for banks and non-banks alike.

undergoing massive structural change:大規模な構造的な変化を遂げる
 in its wake:その跡をおって
regulatory overhaul:制度改革
spearheaded:陣頭に立つ

・Banks’ regulatory rules have been revised (usually subsumed under the Basel III heading), resulting in stronger capital requirements, the first-ever globally agreed liquidity standards (for a short-term liquidity and a structural funding measure), and new standards for constraining large exposures and improving risk management. Also, supervisory standards are being raised and the international standard setter (Basel Committee) has launched a programme to assess national implementation, which exerts peer pressure on jurisdictions to implement the reforms in a consistent manner.

subsume:包含する
Basel III heading:銀行の自己資本比率規制のさらなる厳格化を促す「バーゼルIII」は、審議途上にあるが、規制強化派と反対する銀行界のロビー活動によって、「導入時期は先延ばしされ、内容に抜本的変更はない」という骨抜きの結論となろうとしている
first-ever:史上初の
constraining:束縛する 
exposure:与信額 エクスポージャーは、投資家の持つ金融資産(ポートフォリオ)のうち、マーケット(市場)の価格変動リスクにさらされている資産の割合(度合い)をいう。また、金融機関や事業会社などで、リスクにさらされている投融資や保証の総額(総量)などをいうこともある。
jurisdiction:正当な権利/権限
exert peer pressure on: 〜に周囲の圧力をかける[加える]

・Cross-border resolution difficulties witnessed in the crisis are reflected in the new set of expectations with regard to effective resolution regimes and a process of recovery and resolution planning for the largest banks, complete with setting up cross- border crisis management groups composed of authorities from the (most prominent) jurisdictions where these banks operate.

Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes:金融機関の実効的な破綻処理の枠組みの主要な特性

・Regarding non-banks, the international community is finalizing a basic solvency requirement for global insurers who are systemically important – to date there has been no global solvency standard; over-the-counter derivatives markets are undergoing major overhaul with measures aimed at mandating and/or incentivizing central clearing and trading on organized platforms with reporting to trade repositories of all contracts. In terms of insurance regulation, many countries in Europe, Latin America and Asia are adopting variants of the Solvency II regime. New insurance regulation has a strong emphasis on corporate governance, disclosure and accountability. These measures are relevant as they aim to change the broader corporate behaviour.

Solvency Capital Requirement:支払能力資本基準(略SCR)
 insurer :保険会社
to date:今まで
over-the-counter derivatives markets:店頭デリバティブ市場
 mandating:義務付ける
 incentivizing:奨励する
central clearing:一元決済/中央決済
trade repositories:取引情報蓄積機関 その起源をOTCデリバティブ市場に持つ機関であり、公開されているOTCデリバティ ブ取引記録(契約)の電子データベースを保存する集中登録機関(centralised registry)である。
variant:変形
Solvency II regime:Solvency II is the name given to the European Union's fundamental and wide-ranging review to establish a solvency (支払い能力) system that better matches the risks of insurers. It reflects a trend throughout the EU towards the convergence (集中)of the economic and regulatory management of insurance companies. Solvency II is based on the realization that ultimately, companies that are profitable and well-managed are those most likely to remain solvent.

・International accounting standards are being changed, in particular to make loss recognition more forward-looking (newly issued IFRS9).

forward-looking:将来を考慮した/前向きな
IFRS9:2014年7月24日に公表された最終基準IFRS第9号「金融商品」の分類及び測定、減損の規定について詳細に分析し、解説しています。

・Some supervisory authority over the financial sector has been relocated to central banks, most notably in Europe, where the European Central Bank has taken on additional responsibilities.

Still, of course, challenges remain. Addressing the issue of “too-big-to-fail” remains a key issue. Efforts are needed to: (i) finalize living wills and identify and remove barriers to firms’ resolvability; (ii) reach consensus on banks’ loss-absorbing capacity to ensure that they can be resolved; (iii) address obstacles to cross-border cooperation and recognition of resolution measures; (iv) ensure recovery and resolution of non-banks; and (v) promote better regulation of the shadow banking sector. Cross-border challenges persist also in over-the-counter derivatives reform. As regulatory regimes developed in parallel in the two largest markets (European Union and United States), they resulted in a framework that overlaps and is not completely consistent. Regulatory decisions allowing reliance on home regulatory regimes (known as “deference”) are urgently needed. Trade reporting requirements have been adopted in key countries but legal barriers frustrate implementation. Progress on trading standardized contracts on exchanges and electronic trading platforms continues to slip. Political commitment is needed to advance reforms in all these areas.

living will:《主に米国で用いられる》 リビングウィル, 生前の意思表示,死亡選択遺言
resolvability:支払いの可能性
result in:もたらす
GLAC(gone-concern loss absorbing capacity)あるいはTLAC(total loss absorbing capacity) :自己資本に加えて銀行の債務を対象に破綻時の損失吸収力の確保を G-SIB(グローバルなシステム上重要な銀行) に要求する新たな規制
home regulatory regimes :母国の規制制度
deference:服従
slip:悪化する

Source: This box draws on the latest Global Financial Stability Report and related IMF work.
Note: In addition to the current regulatory reforms described above, some experts believe that profound changes in the corporate culture and incentive systems in the financial sector are needed to reduce excessive risk-taking.

Box 1.5: Black Sky – risks to critical infrastructure

The world has more to lose than ever before from massive failure of critical infrastructure. To improve efficiency and lower cost, various systems have been allowed to become hyperdependent on one another. The failure of one weak link – whether from natural disaster, human error or terrorism – can create ripple effects across multiple systems and over wide geographical areas.

ripple effects:波及効果

Large-scale power outages might be the most visible illustration. The initiating event in the August 2003 power failures in the United States occurred in Ohio but the worst consequences were felt by 55 million people in the north- eastern part of the United States and Canada. The July 2012 India blackout was the largest in history, affecting 670 million people, about 10% of the world population, and was partially triggered by high demand during a heat wave.

power outage:停電

In many countries, infrastructure has not been maintained well enough to withstand the kinds of catastrophes that could spark such cascading effects. This is often the result of procrastination, the perception that the risk is so small that it is not worth considering or crowding out by other priorities, and the fact that investing in preparedness is rarely immediately rewarded in the electoral process. The challenge is financial, and incentives are misaligned. For example, in the United States, over 80% of infrastructure is owned or managed by private sector firms, which are not responsible for the negative externalities that failure of their part of the infrastructure could have elsewhere. To increase investment in infrastructure, a coordinated, global, long-term and multistakeholder approach is required. Upgrading infrastructure is essential, in recognition that resilient infrastructure has become the backbone of a competitive economy.

Note:
1 Auerswald, Branscomb, LaPorte and Michel-Kerjan, 2006.

withstand:持ちこたえる/耐える
cascading effect: カスケード効果 影響が連鎖的に伝わる現象。
procrastination:先送り/優柔不断
crowding out:おしのける
electoral process:選挙過程
misaligned:正しく配列されていない
externalities:外部への影響
resilient:回復力のある


月曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は久しぶりにスケートに行ったので、午後の英語はきつかった。昨晩は早く寝てしまった。今日はトクヤマの湯浅さんとの会食がある。ではまた明日。


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2015年04月26日

Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (11)

Economic Risks: Out of the Spotlight? 

Spotlight:世間の注目

The global economy is returning to growth, albeit sluggishly, and there is a feeling that significant progress has been made in reducing the likelihood of another financial crisis (as explored in Box 1.4). This may reflect a false sense of control, as history shows that people do not always learn from past failures and are often taken by surprise by the same risks. 

false sense of control:物事や自分自身をコントロールしているという誤った感覚


The global unemployment rate is expected to remain at current levels until 2018, reflecting a growing problem of structural unemployment in advanced economies. This will likely keep wages low, maintaining deflationary pressures; in the Eurozone, inflation fell as low as 0.66% in 2014. As past years have seen a build-up of debt in many major economies – notably China, where the corporate debt-to-GDP ratio went from 92% in 2003-2007 to 110% in 2013 – the possible risk is that deflation could reduce debtors’ ability to repay, threatening the future stability of the financial system.

Conversely, low interest rates have also fuelled the risk of asset bubbles. Since the financial crisis, the use of expansionary monetary policy – such as quantitative easing and zero interest rates – has not had the expected impact of significantly increasing credit availability in the real economy, instead leading to a reflation of asset prices. Credit booms and asset bubbles have historically resulted in bank bailouts and recession in the real economy (see Box 1.3). 

Conversely:一方で
expansionary monetary policy:景気刺激型金融政策/金融政策の緩和
credit availability:利用可能な資金
reflation :通貨再膨張 ある国家において、デフレで停滞している経済を適正と思われるインフレ水準に戻すために金融政策が取られている状態。または、その政策。

The risks of a failure of a major financial mechanism or institution and fiscal crises are perceived as equally impactful and likely as in last year’s report (Figure 1.4), yet other risks, such as water crises, interstate conflict and the failure of climate-change adaptation, have taken centre stage. This runs the risk of diverting decision-makers’ attention away from continuing economic reforms. Despite recent efforts (see Box 1.4), either deflationary pressures or the bursting of an asset-price bubble could still cause the failure of a major financial mechanism or institution – especially as the shadow banking sector is less regulated yet increasingly important. Likewise, in many countries public debt levels are still worryingly high so that the related risks are likely to persist over many years. 

diverting decision-makers’ attention away from:から意思決定者の注意をそらす
public debt :公的債務/国債

Decision-makers’ focus on other risks could lead to inaction at a time when continued progress in structural reform is most necessary; The Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015 outlines some priorities. Maintaining the momentum of both financial and fiscal reforms will be crucial to avoid another major economic crisis. 

fiscal:財政の

Figure 1.4: The Changing Global Risks Landscape 2014-2015, Economic Risks
22
Source: Global Risks Perception Surveys 2013 and 2014, World Economic Forum.Note: See endnote 25

Box 1.3: Asset bubbles – a new old risk? 

The evidence of frothiness is increasing in a number of housing markets in both advanced and emerging economies – including Canada, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, France, Sweden, Norway, China, Hong Kong SAR and Singapore – as well as in a number of credit and equity markets across the world. 

 frothiness:泡立つこと
SAR:特別行政区(Special Administrative Region)

The traditional goal of central banks has been economic stability: keeping inflation low while achieving robust growth. The current realization is that central banks must also seek to preserve financial stability – which means, among other things, avoiding risky bubbles. The current theory is that macro-prudential regulation and supervision of the financial system will avoid bubbles and achieve financial stability. However, bubbles are very hard to identify (price increases could also reflect market movements), and macro-prudential regulation has not historically been effective and excludes the unregulated shadow banking system. 

prudential:慎重な

If macro-prudential regulation fails again, central banks will be left with only one tool – monetary policy – to pursue both goals of economic and financial stability. This may prove impossible. Trying to prick bubbles by using monetary policy risks causing a bond market rout and a hard landing for the real economy. However, keeping monetary policy loose in a bid to help the real economy risks inflating asset bubbles that will, inevitably, eventually burst and also damage the real economy. Loose monetary policy is the mother of all bubbles. Attempting to walk this tightrope will be a difficult issue for central banks in both advanced and emerging markets in the years to come. 

prove impossible:無理であることがわかる
prick:穴を開ける
rout:完全に打ち負かす
loose:緩める

日曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は海野塾で、午前はマレーシア、午後は孫子で内容の濃いものであった。孫子は孫子の内容を知っていないとついていけない高度な議論だったので、初めての参加者は面食らったに違いない。今日はいつものとおりで、スケートと英語の勉強だ。ではまた明日。


swingby_blog at 07:58コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2015年04月25日

Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (10)

Growing Worries about Conflict 

Having not featured prominently in previous editions of the report, interstate conflict is this year considered the most likely high-impact risk over the next 10 years, or indeed perhaps even sooner. As already discussed, respondents are even more concerned about geopolitical risks in the short term than in the long term (Figure 1.1) 

not featured prominently:顕著には取り上げなかった

Many observers believe that the world is entering a new era of strategic competition among global powers. Disillusion about globalization is leading to more self-interested foreign policies in combination with a rise in national sentiment (Figure 3) fuelled in part by the social pressures described above. Growing nationalism is evident around the world: in Russia, as seen in the Crimea crisis; in India, with the rising popularity of nationalist politicians; and in Europe, with the rise of far-right, nationalistic and Eurosceptic parties in a number of countries. 

Disillusion:覚醒/幻滅
self-interested:利己的な

Growth and employment creation are currently expected to remain below pre-crisis levels in both emerging markets and advanced economies, suggesting that the drivers of nationalism will remain strong, and raising the possibility of more frequent and impactful conflicts among states. Importantly, as can be seen in Figure 2, interstate conflict is no longer physical but uses economic means and cyber warfare to attack people’s privacy as well as intangible assets. 

Geopolitical risks can have cascading impacts on other risks. As state structures are challenged by conflict, the risk of the failure of national governance and state collapse or crisis can increase in areas where current state boundaries do not necessarily reflect popular self-identification. A recent example is Iraq and Syria, where ISIS has claimed control of territory and attracted 20,000 to 30,000 fighters from a near standing start. The rapid rise and brutality of ISIS as well as the response of the international community may underlie the increased likelihood and impact attributed by respondents to the risk of the deployment of weapons of mass destruction and the higher potential impact than in previous years associated with large-scale terrorist attacks (Figure 1.3). 

self-identification:自己意識/一体であるという意識
standing start:始めからのスタート

Failure of national governance features strongly this year, as the third most likely risk across the global risks landscape. This risk area captures a number of important elements around the inability to efficiently govern as a result of corruption, illicit trade, organized crime, the presence of impunity and generally weak rule of law. Over past years, the links between many forms of global crime and corruption and their impact on global security, extremism, terrorism and fragile states have only grown stronger, and it is critical to acknowledge and address them through more effective policies that curb illegal financial flows, foster transparent governance and build capacity around anti-crime efforts at the national and local levels. Absent a stronger response from both the public and private sectors, the risk is of undoing hard-earned gains in economic and political stability, and further eroding trust in leadership. In a number of countries, such as India, Indonesia and Romania, new leaders have been elected in large part due to their public commitment to more transparent and corruption-free governance models, underscoring an ongoing shift in public expectations. 

feature:特色である
illicit trade:不法取引
impunity:刑事免責
extremism:過激主義/急進思想
build capacity:能力を養成する
hard-earned gain:苦労してやっと得た利益
of undoing:取り消し/破滅のもと

The growing interconnectedness of the global economy increases the economic effects of any geopolitical conflict. Supply chains that run across countries in conflict could be interrupted, leading to disruptions in the availability of goods or energy. Survey respondents considered the risk of an energy price shock to the global economy as more impactful and more likely than in previous years, despite the increasing availability of shale gas or alternative energy sources. The interplay between economic and geopolitical forces is further explored in Part 2 of this report. 

interplay:相互作用
Box 1.2: The rising threat from non-state actors

non-state actor:非国家主体

The group known as ISIS, ISIL or the Islamic State has gained global notoriety through its taste for video-recorded executions and large-scale atrocity, with a background of further human rights abuse that includes arbitrary imprisonment and sexual enslavement. While its thirst for violence, blood and misery – and especially the way it glories in these crimes – mark it out from other non-state armed forces of our age, this is really only a quantitative distinction. Other groups – many of them part of the global Al Qaeda franchise – do the same, only less. Al Nusra in Syria, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Nigerian group known in the West as Boko Haram all do some of what ISIS does on a somewhat smaller scale. 

notoriety:悪評
arbitrary imprisonment :独断的な投獄
sexual enslavement:性的な奴隷化
thirst:欲望
misery:不幸/貧困/苦痛
quantitative distinction:定量的な差異
glory in:を誇りとする
mark it out:を策定する/を選定する
of our age:我々の世代の

But what really marks ISIS out is that it has claimed statehood and with that has established some of the machinery of state management. ISIS has not only proclaimed the new Caliphate, the rule of the successors of the Prophet Muhammad – not that it has any theological credibility to do so – but also administers the area of northern Iraq and eastern Syria where it holds sway. It handles law and order, some social services on a selective basis, and has an intelligence service and system of informers set up for it by former officials of the overthrown Ba’athist regime of Saddam Hussein. Adding to the lavish funds it has raised from the Gulf region, it has also taken over and emptied the central bank in Mosul, making it the richest non-state armed force in the world and equipping it to be a non-state state. 

statehood:国家の地位
machinery:体制
proclaim:宣言する
theological :神学的な
credibility:威信
holds sway:支配する
system of informers:密告者のシステム
lavish:有り余る

The phenomenon is not without precedent: the Provisional Revolutionary Government in South Vietnam did much the same in the late 1960s and early 1970s, without the self-glorification of atrocity and terror. And it is not without parallel today. The Taliban have effective control over parts of Afghanistan and was effectively the state in the late 1990s, until the US-led offensive overthrew it in October 2001. Among other examples, for a long time FARC has been in control of large areas of Colombia, while the Seleka militia is in charge of northern areas of Central African Republic. Having withdrawn from Bangui in January 2014 under heavy international pressure, they are recuperating by systematically taxing gold and diamond mining, livestock and other economic activities – behaving in part like a nascent state. Some groups have not based themselves outside the territory over which they are fighting, but have waged warfare that is not territorially limited. In the Al Qaeda mode, they have fought what they perceive to be a global enemy. Today, perhaps the trend is in the opposite direction: re-entry into an era of the non-state state.

Provisional Revolutionary Government:南ベトナム共和国 
self-glorification:美化
glorify:美化する 
without parallel:例を見ない 
withdraw:撤退する 
recuperating: 取り戻す
livestock:家畜
nascent state:発生期の国家
bahave:振舞う/行動する
non-state state:非国家的な国家

Figure 1.3: The Changing Global Risks Landscape 2014-2015, Geopolitical Risks
38
Source: Global Risks Perception Surveys 2013 and 2014, World Economic Forum. Note: See endnote 25

Rising nationalist sentiment and declining trust among global players are contributing to a weakening of international governance, undermining the international community’s ability to act decisively on issues such as conflict resolution, Internet governance, climate change and the management of oceans. Failure to collaborate and implement common solutions in these areas could significantly undermine future global growth. 

土曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は一日、英語を読んでいた。それと今日の予習だったが、ついでに、いろいろ他のビデオも見てしまった。世界が広いことが分かった。この年で、知らないことが多すぎることもわかってきた。今日は海野塾だ。最近はだんだん英語に慣れてきて、以前と違って、一日が辛くない。今日の午後は日本語だが。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 07:17コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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