Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (9)

Fragile Societies under Pressure 

The fragility of societies is of increasing concern, fuelled by underlying economic, societal and environmental developments (Figure 3 and Figure 1.2). A major driver of social fragility is rising socio-economic inequality within countries, although it is diminishing between countries. Among the members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the average income of the richest 10% has now grown to about nine times that of the poorest 10%. In other countries, the ratio is even higher: for example, more than 25 times in Mexico. 

Income inequality is widening quickly in large emerging markets. The People’s Republic of China has seen its Gini Index rise from about 30 in the 1980s to over 50 in 2010. While extreme poverty (less than $1.25 per day) was reduced from afflicting over 50% of the world’s population in 1990 to 22% in 2010, the same reduction did not take place in those earning under $3 per day. The story is of people escaping extreme poverty, yet remaining poor. Widening income inequality is associated with lower and more fragile economic growth, which reduces the scope to meet rising social expectations in emerging markets. 


Rising structural unemployment drives both inequality and social pressures. Lower economic growth and technological change are likely to keep unemployment high in the future, also in developing countries. The spread of connectivity enables protest movements to mount more quickly, increasing the risk of unrest and violence that could easily spill over from individual countries to affect the global economy. While inequality and unemployment contribute to social instability, social instability in turn impacts negatively on equality, employment and wealth creation. The multidirectional cause-and-effect relationship makes it harder to address the related risks. 


Underlying social fragility is also the accelerating pace of change, growing complexity and the deepening extent of global interdependence, which together reduce people’s feeling of control over their immediate environment and hence their sense of stability and security. A common psychological response to insecurity and perceived loss of control is the desire to turn inwards towards smaller groups that have a stronger sense of identity. At the same time, increased global connectivity allows people to make their voices heard and to convene with like-minded individuals. The growing risks of social extremism and isolationism are brought to light through the rising influence of religious groups and in the separatist movements in Catalonia and Scotland. 

make their voices heard:彼らの意見を聞いてもらう
convene with:集まる
social extremism:社会的急進主義
 brought to light:明るみに出す

The effects associated with climate change will put further pressure on societies. Its expected impact on the ability to grow food and access water could prompt sudden and uncontrolled population migrations, putting additional pressure on receiving countries. Already in 2014, the number of refugees worldwide from environmental or conflict-related causes reached its highest level since World War II. 

Figure 1.2: The Changing Global Risks Landscape 2014-2015, Societal Risks 

Source: Global Risks Perception Surveys 2013 and 2014, World Economic Forum.
 Note: See endnote 25

As societies become less homogenous and less bound by common values, and more polarized into the haves and have-nots, they will become harder to govern effectively. This in turn increases the risk of prolonged economic stagnation, creating the potential for a self-reinforcing downward spiral into social chaos. States will need to mitigate this risk through policies to make growth more inclusive: providing public goods and services such as social protection, hospitals, schools, transport and telecommunications infrastructure.

 less bound:縛られない
more inclusive:より包括的に
social protection:社会的保護


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Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (8)

Among the economic risks, fiscal crises and unemployment are perceived as close to equally impactful and likely as in last year’s report, yet other risk categories take centre stage this year (see Figure 1.4). While the world has made progress in addressing and preventing financial crises, and small improvements in fiscal issues and unemployment have been achieved, the danger of complacency compared to other risks exists: experts remain concerned about significant residual risks, which may have been overshadowed by other risks in the survey.


The prominence of risks dominating recent headlines in our assessments raises questions about the role of the “availability heuristic” – risks that have manifested themselves recently may be uppermost in people’s minds, even if their recent occurrence does not necessarily increase their impact or likelihood over a 10-year time horizon. To reveal more about the psychology behind the responses, the survey this year asked respondents to nominate risks of highest concern over two time horizons: 10 years, as usual, and 18 months. The results are shown in Figure 1.1. In the short term, respondents are more concerned about global risks related to recent events and human action, including interstate conflict, state collapse, failure of national governance and large-scale terrorist attacks. The list for the longer term is dominated by risks related to physical and environmental trends that have been less prominent in recent headlines, such as water crises, failure of climate-change adaptation and food crises.

availability heuristic:利用可能性ヒューリスティック 物事を判断するときに用いられる手法。「取り出しやすい」記憶情報を、優先的に頼って判断してしまうこと。記憶に残っているものほど、頻度や確立を高く見積もる傾向。
manifested themselves:明示される

Interestingly, the risk of social instability scores high in both the short and long term. This trend towards social fragility is one of five threads that stand out from the 2015 survey – along with growing concern about geopolitics, the possible overshadowing of economic risks by other more imminent risks, concern about unaddressed environmental risks, and persisting vulnerabilities in cyberspace – which are explored in more depth below.

stand out:突出する
Box 1.1: The evolution of the risks of highest impact/likelihood

As the report’s 10th anniversary approaches, the evolution of the perceived top five global risks can be viewed in terms of impact and likelihood as documented in the Global Risks reports from 2007 to 2015. As Table 1.1.1 shows, economic risks largely dominated from 2007 to 2014, with the risk of an asset-price collapse heading the list in the run-up to the financial crisis, giving way to concerns about the more immediate but slow-burning consequences of constrained fiscal finances, a major systemic financial failure in the immediate post-crisis years, and income disparity. This year features a radical departure from the past decade; for the first time in the report’s history, economic risks feature only marginally in the top five. In the 25th year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, geopolitical risks are back on the agenda. The dispute over Crimea in March 2014 serves as a forceful reminder of the consequences of interstate conflicts with regional consequences that seemed long forgotten and unfathomable, as further explored in this report. Similarly, together with other events in 2014, such as the prominent rise of the Islamic State, it has brought state collapse and the failure of national governance back into public consciousness. At the same time, health-related risks, such as pandemics – last considered impactful in 2008 – have made it back into the unglamorous top, following the unprecedented spread of Ebola.

give way to:取って代わる
income disparity:所得格差
public consciousness:人々の意識

On a higher level, Table 1.1.1 also indicates a shift over past years away from economic risks in general to environmental risks – ranging from climate change to water crises. While this highlights a recognition of the importance of these slow-burning issues, strikingly little progress has been made to address them in light of their far-reaching and detrimental consequences for this and future generations.

detrimental consequence:有害な結果

Table 1.1.1: The Evolving Risks Landscale (2007-2015)

Source: Global Risks reports 2007-2015, World Economic Forum.
Note: Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years, as definitions and the set of global risks have evolved with new issues emerging on the 10-year horizon. For example, cyber attacks, income disparity and unemployment entered the set of global risks in 2012. Some global risks were reclassified: water crises and rising income disparity were recategorized as societal risks and as a trend, respectively, in 2015. The 2006 edition of the Global Risks report did not have a risks landscape.

Figure 1.1: Global Risks of Highest Concern - for the Next 18 Months and 10 Years
Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2014, World Economic Forum. Note: Survey respondents were asked to select up to five risks of highest concern for each time frame. The percentage indicates the share of respondents who selected the specific global risk among the five risks of highest concern for each time frame. In each category, the risks are sorted by the total sum of mentions. See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated. See Appendix A for the full name and description.



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Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (7)

The Structure of this Report 

Part 1 of this report explores the results of the Global Risks Perception Survey 2014. It explains the distinction between risks and trends, visualizes the likelihood of interconnections between risks, and analyses the difference in risk perceptions over different time horizons. Figures 1, 2 and 3 are shown on the inside cover flaps. 

cover flap:本のカバーの折り込み

Part 2 deep-dives into three topics that emerged strongly from the interconnections between risks and trends: the interplay between geopolitics and economics, rapid urbanization in developing countries, and emerging technologies. 

deep dive:深くのめり込む 

Part 3 discusses risk management and risk resilience: it presents survey respondents’ views on which risks have most successfully been addressed over the past 10 years, and shares practices from the public and private sectors that offer ways forward to address global risks. The full methodology for the survey is shared in Appendix B. The complete set of data can be explored online at: www.weforum.org/risks. 

Part 1: Global Risks 2015 


The Global Risks 2015 report comes at a time when various manifestations of global risks brought into sharp relief that the world is not equipped to deal with these events or similar occurrences in the future. For the past decade, the Global Risks report has been calling attention to global risks and providing a base for multistakeholder action. Over this period, the evolution in understanding how global risks are thought about and assessed has been significant. This has led the Forum to update the methodology it has used to assess global risks for the 10th edition of the report, based on input from the members of the newly established Advisory Board. 

comes at a time when:のときにやってくる
bring into sharp relief :浮き彫りにする
equipped to;心構えができている

Building on this evolution, in this report a global risk is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years. Based on this refined definition, 28 global risks were identified and grouped into the five customary categories: economic risks, environmental risks, geopolitical risks, societal risks and technological risks. A description of the risks and the methodology employed can be found in Appendix A and Appendix B. 


A further development in the 2015 report is the delineation of risks and trends. This distinction allows a better understanding of the underlying drivers of global risks. A trend is defined as a long-term pattern that is currently taking place and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them. The focus on trends can contribute to risk mitigation; for example, better planned urbanization can help alleviate certain risks that concentrate in urban areas. Moreover, the differentiation between trends and risks emphasizes the fact that trends, unlike risks, are occurring with certainty and can have both positive and negative consequences. Trends are long-term, ongoing processes that can alter the future evolution of risks or the interrelations among them, without necessarily becoming risks themselves. 


  As in previous years, risks are assessed based on the perception of leaders and decision-makers obtained through the Global Risks Perception Survey. The survey captures the views of the World Economic Forum’s multistakeholder communities across different areas of expertise, geographies and age groups. It was conducted between July and September 2014 and gathered the perceptions of almost 900 leading decision-makers from business, academia and the public sector. A more detailed description of the sample and the survey’s methodology is presented in Appendix B. Complementary to the Global Risks Perception Survey data, the views of business executives were also collected on the risks of highest concern for doing business in their country, presented in more detail in Appendix C. 


The results provide a snapshot of current perceptions on global risks and highlight priorities for action from three complementary angles: (1) the Global Risks Landscape, in which risks are assessed according to likelihood and impact, allowing a comparison of how perceptions have evolved over the years (Figure 1); (2) the Interconnections Maps of Risks (Figure 2) and of Risks and Trends (Figure 3); and (3) the level of concern in the short and long terms (Figure 1.1). 

complementary :補完的な

The Global Risks Landscape, as defined by the survey, highlights five global risks that stand out as both highly likely and highly potentially impactful (upper right quadrant of Figure 1). Interstate conflict has significantly leaped up both dimensions since 2014, arguably reflecting recent geopolitical conflicts that are fuelling geopolitical and social instability. As last year, concerns about environmental and economic risks remain, in particular around failure of climate-change adaptation, water crises and unemployment and underemployment reflecting concern about how little tangible action has been taken to address them. At the same time, cyber attacks remain among the most likely high-impact risks. 

leap up:飛び越える

Respondents also underscored the potentially devastating impact of the rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases, which reflects the need for a higher level of preparedness for major pandemics at both the country and international levels to address this important risk (see Box 2.4 in Part 2). 

In the geopolitical risks category, respondents identified weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), which include weapons containing nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological technologies, as the third most impactful risk, albeit as the second least likely risk. If deployed, they would create an international crisis with huge human and economic costs. In the coming decades, technological advancements, greater access to scientific knowledge and the increased vulnerability of classified information to cyber threats enhance the risk of WMDs proliferation, particularly in fragile areas. This highlights the need for greater international collaboration to control the proliferation of WMDs. 

 radiological :放射線の
the third most impactful:3番目に衝撃の大きい
the second least likely:2番目に最も起こりそうにない


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Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (6)


For the past decade, the Global Risks report – now in its 10th edition – has been calling attention to global risks and providing tools to support decision-makers in their efforts to mitigate or prevent global risks or strengthen resilience against them. 

Since its inception, the report has raised awareness that the world is increasingly interconnected and that global risks cannot be seen in isolation. On the contrary, they can have far-reaching cascading effects as demonstrated by the financial crisis in 2008 and its socio-economic consequences. The year 2014 alone witnessed several such risks with potentially broad implications in the years to come if history serves as a benchmark: the frozen relationship between Russia and the West – unfathomable to most just one year ago – seems to be transporting the world back to a time when geopolitics took primacy. The conflict in Syria and the spread of the Islamic State in the region have set off unprecedented migration flows into neighbouring countries and Europe, which could impact social cohesion if poorly managed. Revelations about data fraud and leaks and cyber espionage have critically undermined global trust, running the risk of complicating the search for solutions to other global governance challenges as well. Successfully addressing these complex and interconnected issues necessitates greater multistakeholder cooperation to increase the capacity to foresee, manage and mitigate global risks and to strengthen society’s preparedness and resilience to them. The report takes the first step towards establishing comprehensive collaboration by fostering a shared understanding of the issues at hand. 

set off:し始める
migration flow:移民流入の流れ
social cohesion:社会的な結束/一体性
data fraud:データの不正行為

10 Years of Risk Awareness Building 

Over the past decade, the Global Risks report has seen both its readership and its impact increase significantly. The report has become a useful tool for many governments and businesses to assess their exposure to global risks (see Box 1). It has also successfully raised awareness on key risks, such as the threat of increasing resistance to antibiotics, which was featured in 2013, or important IT-related risks, which are now at the forefront of business concerns. 


After 10 years, the World Economic Forum is now also in a position to revisit the first Global Risks report, an endeavour that illustrates both the difficulty and the necessity of attempting to think 10 years ahead. The economic risk given most attention in 2007 was the possibility of an asset price bubble, which set off a major financial crisis in the same year. The subsequent years were primarily defined by potential risks related to the stability of financial systems in many countries and the threat of sovereign default, resulting in an economic meltdown the world is still recovering from. The interconnected nature of the global economy today and the scale of the global financial crisis show the need to look beyond the obvious for risk interconnections. 

asset price bubble:資産価格バブル
look beyond:深層を見る

Importantly, this 10th edition also reflects a decade of learning and methodological improvements. Fundamentally, the report’s approach remains the same – to identify global risks and their interactions, and to assess them on two dimensions: their perceived likelihood and impact. However, over the years, a number of refinements have been made to the methodology, reflecting the lessons learned from 10 years’ experience in this field. This year’s edition features an updated methodology based on input from the members of the newly established Advisory Board (the list of members appears in the Acknowledgements section at the end of this report). 


The uncertainty associated with risks, their interconnected nature and often the absence of data make it difficult to accurately quantify a range of risks – for example social unrest, cyber attacks or oil price shocks. A survey is therefore a suitable tool to get a sense of the order of magnitude of the impact and likelihood of risks. The qualitative, perceptions-based approach embodied in the Global Risks Perception Survey has been the base of the World Economic Forum’s work in this area since 2011, capturing the views of decision-makers from the Forum’s multistakeholder constituencies on the perceived impact and probability of risks and the interconnections between them. Perceptions allow us to better understand decision-makers’ priorities, which in turn influence their decisions. 

in turn:返っては

Over the years, the reports have put increasing emphasis on the interconnected nature of global risks and the potential spillover effects of systemic risks, putting this aspect of risks on the agenda. The resulting complexities underscore the difficulties stakeholders face when addressing risks and are reflected in this edition’s introduction of trends as drivers of risks. As a result, there is increased emphasis on going beyond the analysis of global risks to include suggestions on what stakeholder alliances can do about them. The focus on solutions in this edition is the strongest yet, with a new section on practices and a stronger focus in the survey on preparedness and progress. 

spillover effects:波及効果
Systemic risk:システミック・リスク  1つの金融機関が倒産などから決済不能となった場合に、決済関係を通じて他の金融機関にもその影響 が及び連鎖的に決済不能を引き起こし、金融システム全体の機能が失われてしまう 危険
Box 1: How has the Global Risks report been used? 

A range of stakeholders were asked how they used the Global Risks report series over the last 10 years. The most common answers were to: 
・develop scenarios; 
・prepare crisis exercises; 
・assess vulnerabilities and their potential for cascade effects; 
・inform “sense making” exercises in crisis situations; 
・train top decision-makers; 
・model risks external to the direct business environment.

external to:の外側にある
sense making:「正しい判断が出来る」「正しい方法が選べる」 つまり、状況に応じて ... その情勢を正しく理解して、どのように戦略を適応していくか、というセンス(判断力)が重要という意味。   

意味(sense)の形成(making)です。 アクティブに、有意味で(sensible)、知覚可能な(sensable)事象を構築します。 

■ センスメーキング 7つのプロセス 
1.アイデンティティ構築のプロセス センスメーキングはセンスメーカーなくしては、はじまりません。 企業におけるセンスメーカーは主に営業や商品開発にたずさわる人たちです。アイデンティティは相互作用のプロセスから生まれます。環境への適応のしかたで自己の定義も変わります。 アイデンティティの確立と維持がセンスメーキングの中心的な課題になります。 

2.回顧的プロセス 人は自分たちの行なっていることを行なった後でのみ知ることができるのです。 有意味な生きられた経験(過去時制)の分析に由来しています。(Schutz,1967)自分の知覚している世界は、実際は過去の世界です。この経験を未来につなぎます。 

3.価値を発見・発明するプロセス 自分が直面する状況の中で、自らの市場を創り出します。境界線を引き、顧客ターゲットや商品カテゴリーを確立し、以前は存在しなかった新しいマーケットを創り出すためのラベルを貼ります。目に見えて、かつシンボリックなものにする創造のプロセスです。行為よって、このチャンスが得られるのです。 

4..社会化のプロセス どの組織でも、経験の共有をつうじて共通言語を開発し、使用しています。センスメーキングが社会的なプロセスであることは重要な視点です。個々人の思考、感情や行為が他者との相互作用により影響しあいます。 センスメーキングは決して一人で行なうものではなく他者に左右されるのです。 

5.進行中のプロセス 企業の多くの仕事は、暫定的な仮定(仮説)をつくり上げては修正しています。 とくに、イベントやプロジェクトの流れが中断されたとき、「何があった?」という問に対する答えを探すように作用します。中断は、重大な変化が生じたことの証(シグナル)であり、その意味づけとともに代替行動をうながします。 

6.手掛り抽出のプロセス 手掛り抽出のプロセスは、“探索”、”スキャンニング”、“気づき”です。 “気づき”は、フィルタリング、類別化、比較といった活動と関連しています。気づかれた手掛りが何を意味するのかを確定することが(Stabuck and Milliken)センスメーキングです。バリューマッピング(戦略マップ)であらたな手掛りを導きます。 

7.もっともらしさ主導のプロセス 「物のわかった経営者は、完全に正確な認知など必要としない」、「環境を正確に見ることなどできないからこそ、経営者は(成功を遂げるのに必要な)熱狂や努力、そして、自信をもって突き進むのである」(Stabuck and Milliken)といいます。 センスメーキングは正確性(解釈)よりもスピード(行動)を重視します。敢えていえばセンスメーキングに必要なのは「優れた物語」です。 優れた物語とは、有効な「因果マップ」のことであり、それはテンプレートです。  

出所:カール.E.ワイク『センスメーキング イン オーガニゼーションズ』(遠田雄志・西本直人訳)  

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Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (5) 

Figure 3: The Risks-Trends 2015 Interconnections Map

Trend Interconnection Map

Environmental degradation
Climate change
Rise of chronic diseases
Weakening of international governance
Rise of hyperconnectivity
Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
Water crises
Failure of national governance
Growing middle class in emerging economies
Interstate conflict
Asset bubble 
Failure of climate- change adaptation
Extreme weather events


Figure 2: The Global Risks 2015 Interconnections Map Ris

Urbanization in developing countries: The world is in the middle of a major transition from predominantly rural to urban living, with cities growing most rapidly in Asia and Africa. If managed well, this will help to incubate innovation and drive economic growth. However, our ability to address a range of global risks – including climate change, pandemics, social unrest, cyber threats and infrastructure development – will largely be determined by how well cities are governed.


Governance of emerging technologies: The pace of technological change is faster than ever. Disciplines such as synthetic biology and artificial intelligence are creating new fundamental capabilities, which offer tremendous potential for solving the world’s most pressing problems. At the same time, they present hard-to-foresee risks. Oversight mechanisms need to more effectively balance likely benefits and commercial demands with a deeper consideration of ethical questions and medium to long-term risks – ranging from economic to environmental and societal.

synthetic biology:合成生物学
pressing :差し迫った
Oversight mechanism:監視のメカニズム
The Global Risks Perception Survey 2014 gathered the perceptions of almost 900 members of the World Economic Forum’s multistakeholder community between July and September 2014.

Mitigating, preparing for and building resilience against global risks is long and complex, something often recognized in theory but difficult in practice. Against this backdrop, Part 3 features three proven or promising initiatives that were instituted in response to extreme weather events and climate-change adaptation. The modelling of the Murray-Darling Basin river system in Australia has pioneered innovative methods of water management that are now being adapted for use elsewhere in the world. The Resilient America Roundtable is currently helping selected local communities across the United States to understand how they might be affected by different risks and then design resilience strategies. ZURS Public, part of an extensive flood management programme in Germany, is a public-private collaboration that for several years now has been a tool for communicating with homeowners and businesses about their exposure to flood risk.

Against this backdrop:この背景として

Over the past 10 years, the Global Risks report has raised awareness of the dangers from the interconnected nature of global risks and has persistently called for multistakeholder collaboration to address them. By offering a broad-ranging overview from risk identification and evaluation to practices – from the “what” to the “how” – this year’s report aims to provide the most comprehensive set of insights yet for decision-makers in its decade-long history.



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Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (4)


As in previous years, Part 2 explores three risk constellations that bear on the survey findings. In 2015, these are: 

bear on:に関わりがある

Interplay between geopolitics and economics: The interconnections between geopolitics and economics are intensifying because states are making greater use of economic tools, from regional integration and trade treaties to protectionist policies and cross-border investments, to establish relative geopolitical power. This threatens to undermine the logic of global economic cooperation and potentially the entire international rule-based system. 



  Table 1: The Ten Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood and Impact 

in Terms of:の観点から

Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2014, World Economic Forum.



Table A: Global Risks 2015

Asset bubble in a major economy
Deflation in a major economy
Energy price shock to the global economy
Failure of a major financial mechanism or institution
Failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure
Fiscal crises in key economies
High structural unemployment or underemployment
Unmanageable inflation

Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)
Failure of climate-change adaptation
Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (land or ocean)
Major natural catastrophes (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms)
Man-made environmental catastrophes (e.g. oil spill, radioactive contamination, etc.)

Failure of national governance (e.g. corruption, illicit trade, organized crime, impunity, political deadlock, etc.)
Interstate conflict with regional consequences
Large-scale terrorist attacks
State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.)
Weapons of mass destruction

Failure of urban planning
Food crises
Large-scale involuntary migration
Profound social instability
Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases
Water crises

Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks
Large-scale cyber attacks
Massive incident of data fraud/theft
Massive and widespread misuse of technologies (e.g. 3D printing, artificial intelligence, geo-engineering, synthetic biology, etc.)






Table B: Trends 2015

Ageing population
Climate change
Environmental degradation
Growing middle class in emerging economies 
Increasing national sentiment
Increasing polarization of societies 
Rise of chronic diseases
Rise of hyperconnectivity
Rising geographic mobility
Rising income disparity
Shifts in power
Weakening of international governance



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