ドナルドトランプの勝利は共和党とアメリカにとって大惨事だ。(3) 救済者というよりも多大な災難だ。 中小企業家はドナルドトランプについて知っておかなければならないこと。

But that should be scant comfort, for even without a victory in November Mr Trump’s coronation as candidate will cause damage. There may be violence at the Republican convention in Cleveland, where Trump supporters and protesters are likely to clash. Voters will spend the next six months hearing over and over again that Hillary Clinton, his Democratic opponent, is a crook and a liar. Much of that will stick even if she wins, leaving those who believe it enraged and Mrs Clinton weakened. America’s allies will watch the polls fearfully: whether at the UN Security Council or at bilateral talks in Beijing, Mr Trump’s spectre will loom over every meeting between America and a foreign power between now and November 8th.

scant comfort:わずかな心地よさ
for even:ほんの〜でも

The Republican Party, always fractious, may actually fracture. Even if he loses, Mr Trump will have shown that there is a path to the nomination that runs via nativism and economic populism. Mountaineers know that the surest route to the summit is the one that has worked before. Some Republicans will say that Mr Trump’s message, shorn of its roughest edges, could deliver victory next time. Others will argue that he lost because he was not a true conservative. Without agreement on what went wrong, it will be hard to forge something new.

shorn of:を奪われる・取り除く
roughest edge:ひどく険悪に見えるもの
forge something new:何か新しいものを築く

And then, of course, there is the possibility that he might just win. Mrs Clinton is not loathed by as many Americans as Mr Trump is, but the share who view her unfavourably is far higher than is usual for presidential nominees. Just as the killings in Paris in December energised Mr Trump’s campaign, a terrorist attack or other event that terrified Americans could tip the vote his way. The balance of probability is against, but none of this is impossible. That is why Mr Trump’s triumph has the makings of a tragedy for Republicans, for America and for the rest of the world.



Scourge, rather than saviour
All latest updates
What small-business owners should know about Donald Trump
As a businessman, his track record is mixed
May 11th 2016 | United States 



“HE ALMOST bankrupted us,” says the retired owner of a construction business on the east coast. Thirty years ago he ran a small business, which was hired by Donald Trump to work on an 11-month project at his Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City. It was the biggest contract, by far, that the business had ever had. The builders worked as they had never done before to complete the job on time. As soon as they finished, Mr Trump stopped paying. He owed around $200,000 of the total bill of some $700,000, a huge sum for a small company. 

by far:はるかに・断然

What followed was a nearly year-long battle to extract the money they were owed. Lawyers advised the company that Mr Trump would procrastinate with expensive litigation, as he had done many times before. Other contractors related their experiences with the “Trump discount”, the billionaire’s habit of rarely paying the full sum he owed. As the “Trump discount” made the rounds in the industry, wily contractors quoted a higher price at the outset to avoid suffering any losses. Then, one day in 1988, the phone rang at 9.30am. A sweet-voiced “special assistant” of Mr Trump’s announced she had a cheque for the builders which, she claimed, had been lying on her desk for a year. “We only got paid because of Merv Griffin,” says the retired contractor. In a surprising swoop, Griffin, an entertainment-business tycoon, had bought the company that owned the Taj Mahal. 

make the rounds in:流布する
at the outset:の最初に

Owners of small businesses are among Mr Trump’s most dedicated supporters. They believe his biggest selling point, relentlessly promoted by himself and his entourage, is his business acumen. He is a consummate dealmaker, they say, and has made heaps of money, maybe as much as $10 billion. They also like his proposal to slash the corporate income-tax rate from 35% to 15%. A poll earlier this year by Manta, an online directory for small businesses, found that 60% favoured Mr Trump as the Republican candidate, followed distantly by Ted Cruz, whom 16% rooted for. Among all candidates Mr Trump won 38% of the votes compared with 21% for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic front-runner. 

business acumen:商才
heaps of:多額の



swingby_blog at 06:40コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 



The result could be disastrous for the Republican Party and, more important, for America. Even if this is as far as he goes, Mr Trump has already done real damage and will do more in the coming months. Worse, in a two-horse race his chances of winning the presidency are well above zero. 

two-horse race:一騎打ち
well above: 〜を軽く超えて、〜を優に上回って

It is possible that, with the nomination secured, Mr Trump will now change his tone. The crassness of his insults may well be muted as he tries to win over at least some of the voters, particularly women, who now abhor him. His demeanour may become more presidential (though there was little sign of that in this week’s bizarre and baseless pronouncements that the father of Ted Cruz, his erstwhile rival, had been around Lee Harvey Oswald before he shot John F. Kennedy). What he will almost certainly not do is change political course. For it is increasingly clear that Mr Trump has elements of a world view from which he does not waver (see article). These beliefs lack coherence or much attachment to reality. They are woven together by a peculiarly 21st-century mastery of political communication, with a delight in conflict and disregard for facts, which his career in reality television has honed. But they are firm beliefs and long-held.

been around:と関わっていた
attachment to reality:現実への関心
woven together :織り合わせる
delight in conflict:紛争が大好き

Beyond the braggadocio
That world view was born, in part, on his father’s construction sites in New York in the 1960s. Mr Trump likes to explain that he once spent his summers working in such places alongside carpenters, plumbers and men carrying heavy scaffolding poles. That experience, he claims, gave him an understanding of the concerns of the hard-working blue-collar men whom American politics has left behind. It explains his deep-rooted economic nationalism. 


Mr Trump has railed against trade deals for decades. He was arguing against NAFTA in the early 1990s. He now calls it the worst trade deal in the history of the world. Similarly, he has always viewed America’s trade deficit as evidence of foul play or poor negotiating skills. For a man with such convictions, it is plain that more such trade deals would be a disaster and that American companies should move production back home or face tariffs. Mr Trump might be willing to bargain over the penalties they should pay, but the underlying instincts are deeply held. He is a conviction protectionist, not an opportunistic one. And, judging by the results of the Republican primaries, at least 10m voters agree with him. 

rail against: 〈文〉〜に憤慨[抗議]する、〜を罵る、〜を激しく非難する、〜に不満をぶちまける、〜に毒づく
foul play:不正行為・犯罪行為
underlying instinct:内在する強い動機

On foreign policy Mr Trump mixes a frustration at the costs of America’s global role, something that has become common after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, with a desire to make the country feared and respected. Those outside America who dwell on his geographical and diplomatic ignorance (of which there is plenty) risk missing the simple principle that animates him. Mr Trump wants to make those outside America pay the full cost of the hegemonic protection it gives them. Allies should have to stump up more for American bases on their soil, and for the costs of equipping and paying the soldiers in them. It is not correct to call this isolationism, since Mr Trump has also proposed some foreign adventures, including the occupation of Iraq and seizure of its oilfields. Rather it is a Roman vision of foreign policy, in which the rest of the world’s role is to send tribute to the capital and be grateful for the garrisons. 

become common:普及する・一般的になる
dwell on:こだわる
hegemonic protection:主導権による保護
stump up:金を渋々出す
foreign adventure:外国への火遊び

Counting the damage
For those, such as this newspaper, who believe in the gains from globalisation and the American-led liberal order, this is a truly terrifying world-view. Fortunately, Mr Trump will probably lose the general election. A candidate whom two-thirds of Americans view unfavourably will find it hard to win 65m votes, which is about what the winning candidate will need. The share of women who disapprove of him is even higher.




swingby_blog at 06:02コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


今後の債務が破綻する そうでないにしても、本当の問題が中国に起こる時期が問題だ。(2) ドナルドトランプの勝利は共和党とアメリカにとって大惨事だ。


That creates two risks. The first is higher-than-expected losses for the banks. Hungry for profits in a slowing economy, plenty of Chinese banks have mis-categorised risky loans as investments to dodge scrutiny and lessen capital requirements. These shadow loans were worth roughly 16% of standard loans in mid-2015, up from just 4% in 2012. The second risk is liquidity. The banks have become ever more reliant on “wealth management products”, whereby they pay higher rates for what are, in effect, short-term deposits and put them into longer-term assets. For years China restricted bank loans to less than 75% of their deposit base, ensuring that they had plenty of cash in reserve. Now the real level is nearing 100%, a threshold where a sudden shortage in funding—the classic precursor to banking crises—is well within the realm of possibility. Midsized banks have been the most active in expanding; they are the place to look for sudden trouble. 

dodge :するのを避ける
wealth management product:理財商品。中国における高利回りの資産運用商品 

The end to China’s debt build-up would not look exactly like past financial blow-ups. China’s shadow-banking system is big, but it has not spawned any products nearly as complex or international in reach as America’s bundles of subprime mortgages in 2008. Its relatively insulated financial system means that parallels with the 1997-98 Asian crisis, in which countries from Thailand to South Korea borrowed too much from abroad, are thin. Some worry that China will look like Japan in the 1990s, slowly grinding towards stagnation. But its financial system is more chaotic, with more pressure for capital outflows, than was Japan’s; a Chinese crisis is likely to be sharper and more sudden than Japan’s chronic malaise. 

chronic malaise:長期的な低迷

One thing is certain. The longer China delays a reckoning with its problems, the more severe the eventual consequences will be. For a start, it should plan for turmoil. Policy co-ordination was appalling during last year’s stockmarket crash; regulators must work out in advance who monitors what and prepare emergency responses. Rather than deploying both fiscal and monetary stimulus to keep growth above the official target of at least 6.5% this year (which is, in any event, unnecessarily fast), the government should save its firepower for a real calamity. The central bank should also put on ice its plans to internationalise the yuan; a premature opening of the capital account would lead only to big outflows and bigger trouble, when the financial system is already on shaky ground. 

on shaky ground:足元がぐらついて

Most important, China must start to curb the relentless rise of debt. The assumption that the government of Xi Jinping will keep bailing out its banks, borrowers and depositors is pervasive—and not just in China itself. It must tolerate more defaults, close failed companies and let growth sag. This will be tough, but it is too late for China to avoid pain. The task now is to avert something far worse. 



American politics
Trump’s triumph
Donald Trump’s victory is a disaster for Republicans and for America
May 7th 2016 | From the print edition


DURING its 160-year history, the Republican Party has abolished slavery, provided the votes in Congress to pass the Civil Rights Act and helped bring the cold war to a close. The next six months will not be so glorious. After Indiana’s primary, it is now clear that Republicans will be led into the presidential election by a candidate who said he would kill the families of terrorists, has encouraged violence by his supporters, has a weakness for wild conspiracy theories and subscribes to a set of protectionist and economically illiterate policies that are by turns fantastical and self-harming. 

by turns:〔あることをするのに複数の人が〕順(番)に、代わる代わる



swingby_blog at 07:51コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


中国の金融システム 今後の債務が破綻する そうでないにしても、本当の問題が中国に起こる時期が問題だ。

China’s financial system
The coming debt bust
It is a question of when, not if, real trouble will hit in China
May 7th 2016 | From the print edition

if not: もしそうでないなら 〜とは言わないまでも、〜とまではいかなくても、〜ではないにせよ[しても] 〜でないとしたら一体何なんだ、たぶん〜に違いない 


CHINA was right to turn on the credit taps to prop up growth after the global financial crisis. It was wrong not to turn them off again. The country’s debt has increased just as quickly over the past two years as in the two years after the 2008 crunch. Its debt-to-GDP ratio has soared from 150% to nearly 260% over a decade, the kind of surge that is usually followed by a financial bust or an abrupt slowdown. 

credit tap:与信枠の蛇口

China will not be an exception to that rule. Problem loans have doubled in two years and, officially, are already 5.5% of banks’ total lending. The reality is grimmer. Roughly two-fifths of new debt is swallowed by interest on existing loans; in 2014, 16% of the 1,000 biggest Chinese firms owed more in interest than they earned before tax. China requires more and more credit to generate less and less growth: it now takes nearly four yuan of new borrowing to generate one yuan of additional GDP, up from just over one yuan of credit before the financial crisis. With the government’s connivance, debt levels can probably keep climbing for a while, perhaps even for a few more years. But not for ever. 


When the debt cycle turns, both asset prices and the real economy will be in for a shock. That won’t be fun for anyone. It is true that China has been fastidious in capping its external liabilities (it is a net creditor). Its dangers are home-made. But the damage from a big Chinese credit blow-up would still be immense. China is the world’s second-biggest economy; its banking sector is the biggest, with assets equivalent to 40% of global GDP. Its stockmarkets, even after last year’s crash, are together worth $6 trillion, second only to America’s. And its bond market, at $7.5 trillion, is the world’s third-biggest and growing fast. A mere 2% devaluation of the yuan last summer sent global stockmarkets crashing; a bigger bust would do far worse. A mild economic slowdown caused trouble for commodity exporters around the world; a hard landing would be painful for all those who benefit from Chinese demand. 

credit blow-up:与信枠の膨張による破裂

Brace, brace
Optimists have drawn comfort from two ideas. First, over three-plus decades of reform, China’s officials have consistently shown that once they identified problems, they had the will and skill to fix them. Second, control of the financial system—the state owns the major banks and most of their biggest debtors—gave them time to clean things up. 

draw comfort from: 〜によって慰められる

Both these sources of comfort are fading away. This is a government not so much guiding events as struggling to keep up with them. In the past year alone, China has spent nearly $200 billion to prop up the stockmarket; $65 billion of bank loans have gone bad; financial frauds have cost investors at least $20 billion; and $600 billion of capital has left the country. To help pump up growth, officials have inflated a property bubble. Debt is still expanding twice as fast as the economy. 

At the same time, as our special report this week shows, the government’s grip on finance is slipping. Despite repeated efforts to restrain them, loosely regulated forms of lending are growing quickly: such “shadow assets” have increased by more than 30% annually over the past three years. In theory, shadow banks diversify sources of credit and spread risk away from the regular banks. In practice, the lines between the shadow and formal banking systems are badly blurred. 




swingby_blog at 07:32コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


縁故資本主義目録 その集団は段階的に縮小する。 世界中で政界にコネのある大物が息詰まってきている。(3)

Encouragingly, India seems to be cleaning up its act. In 2008 crony wealth reached 18% of GDP, putting it on a par with Russia. Today it stands at 3%, a level similar to Australia. A slump in commodity prices has obliterated the balance sheets of its Wild West mining tycoons. The government has got tough on graft, and the central bank has prodded state-owned lenders to stop giving sweetheart deals to moguls. The vast majority of its billionaire wealth is now from open industries such as pharmaceuticals, cars and consumer goods. The pin-ups of Indian capitalism are no longer the pampered scions of its business dynasties, but the hungry founders of Flipkart, an e-commerce firm. 

clean up one's act: 〔人が〕行いを改める[正す]、改めるべき点を改める、改心する、心を入れ替える、まともになる、更正する
put ~ on a par with: 〜を…と同じ水準[レベル]にする
Wild West mining:Meghalaya, a state in India’s northeast, has thick forests above ground and valuable minerals below. Coal occurs in a narrow belt from the lower western end of the state across to the eastern end. Uncontrolled mining in the area has cleared forests, degraded rivers, and led to many accidents and deaths as few health and safety standards exist for mine workers. A ban effected earlier this year halted all mining in the state, but is set to be reconsidered at a hearing scheduled for August. 
pampered scions:甘やかされた末裔

In absolute terms China (including Hong Kong) now has the biggest concentration of crony wealth in the world, at $360 billion. President Xi’s censorious attitude to gambling has hit Macau’s gambling tycoons hard. Li Hejun, an energy mogul, has seen most of his wealth evaporate. But new billionaires in rent-rich industries have risen from obscurity, including Wang Jianlin, of Dalian Wanda, a real-estate firm, who claims he is richer than Li Ka-shing, Hong Kong’s leading business figure. 

In absolute terms:絶対的には

Still, once its wealth is compared with its GDP, China (including Hong Kong) comes only 11th on our ranking of countries. The Middle Kingdom illustrates the two big flaws in our methodology. We only include people who declare wealth of over a billion dollars. Plenty of poorer cronies exist and in China, the wise crony keeps his head down. And our classification of industries is inevitably crude. Dutch firms that interact with the state are probably clean, whereas in mainland China, billionaires in every industry rely on the party’s blessing. Were all billionaire wealth in China to be classified as rent-seeking, it would take the 5th spot in the ranking. 

party’s blessing:党の恩恵

The last tycoons
A possible explanation for the mild improvement in the index is that cronyism was just a phase that the globalising world economy was going through. In 2000-10 capital sloshed from country to country, pushing up the price of assets, particularly property. China’s construction binge inflated commodity prices. In the midst of a huge boom, political and legal institutions struggled to cope. The result was that well-connected people gained favourable access to telecoms spectrum, cheap loans and land. 

struggle to cope with: 〜を収拾しようと躍起になる

Now the party is over. China’s epic industrialisation was a one-off and global capital flows were partly the result of too-big-to-fail banks that have since been tamed. Optimists can also point out that cronyism has stimulated a counter-reaction from a growing middle class in the emerging world, from Brazilians banging pots and pans in the street to protest against graft to Indians electing Arvind Kejriwal, a maverick anti-corruption campaigner, to run Delhi. These public movements echo America’s backlash a century ago. The Gilded Age of the late 19th century gave way to the Progressive Era at the turn of the 20th century, when antitrust laws were passed. 

one-off :一過性の
Progressive Era:進歩主義時代 a period of widespread social activism and political reform across the United States, from the 1890s to 1920s. The main objective of the Progressive movement was eliminating corruption in government. The movement primarily targeted political machines and their bosses. By taking down these corrupt representatives in office a further means of direct democracy would be established. They also sought regulation of monopolies (Trust Busting) and corporations through antitrust laws. These antitrust laws were seen as a way to promote equal competition for the advantage of legitimate competitors.

Yet there is still good reason to worry about cronyism. Some countries, such as Russia, are going backwards. If global growth ever picks up commodities will recover, too—along with the rents that can be extracted from them. In countries that are cleaning up their systems, or where popular pressure for a clean-up is strong, such as Brazil, Mexico and India, reform is hard. Political parties rely on illicit funding. Courts have huge backlogs that take years to clear and state-run banks are stuck in time-warps. Across the emerging world one response to lower growth is likely to be more privatisations, whether of Saudi Arabia’s oil firm, Saudi Aramco, or India’s banks. In the 1990s botched privatisations were a key source of crony wealth. 

in time-warps:タイムワープしていて

The final reason for vigilance is technology. In our index we assume that the industry is relatively free of government involvement, and thus less susceptible to rent-seeking. But that assumption is being tested. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has become one of the biggest lobbyists in Washington and is in constant negotiations in Europe over anti-trust rules and tax. Uber has regulatory tussles all over the world. Jack Ma, the boss of Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant, is protected by the state from foreign competition, and now owes much of his wealth to his stake in Ant Financial, an affiliated payments firm worth $60 billion, whose biggest outside investors are China’s sovereign wealth and social security funds. 


If technology were to be classified as a crony industry, rent-seeking wealth would be higher and rising steadily in the Western world. Whether technology evolves in this direction remains to be seen. But one thing is for sure. Cronies, like capitalism itself, will adapt. 



昨日の昼は皇漢堂の藤原専務と会食。午後はNatures's DreamのWong社長とインタートレードの内藤さんとのミーティング。今日は半日、本を書いて、あとは来週の研修の準備をする予定だ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 06:50コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


縁故資本主義目録 その集団は段階的に縮小する。 世界中で政界にコネのある大物が息詰まってきている。(2)

The economic climate has been tough on cronies, too. Commodity prices have tanked, cutting the value of mines, steel mills and oilfield concessions. Emerging-market currencies and shares have fallen. Asia’s long property boom has sputtered. 


The result is that our newly updated index shows a steady shrinking of crony billionaire wealth to $1.75 trillion, a fall of 16% since 2014. In rich countries, crony wealth remains steadyish, at about 1.5% of GDP. In the emerging world it has fallen to 4% of GDP, from a peak of 7% in 2008 (see chart 1). And the mix of wealth has been shifting away from crony industries and towards cleaner sectors, such as consumer goods (see chart 2). 

Despite this slowdown, it is too soon to say that the era of cronyism is over—and not just because America could elect as president a billionaire whose dealings in Atlantic City’s casinos and Manhattan’s property jungle earn him the 104th spot on our individual crony ranking. 

Behind the crony index is the idea that some industries are prone to “rent seeking”. This is the term economists use when the owners of an input of production—land, labour, machines, capital—extract more profit than they would get in a competitive market. Cartels, monopolies and lobbying are common ways to extract rents. Industries that are vulnerable often involve a lot of interaction with the state, or are licensed by it: for example telecoms, natural resources, real estate, construction and defence. (For a full list of the industries we include, see article.) Rent-seeking can involve corruption, but very often it is legal. 

prone to:する傾向にある
rent seeking:企業が政府官庁に働きかけて法制度や政策を変更させ、利益を得ようとする活動。自らに都合がよくなるよう、規制を設定、または解除させることで、超過利潤(レント)を得ようという活動のこと。

Our index builds on work by Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley Investment Management and Aditi Gandhi and Michael Walton of Delhi’s Centre for Policy Research, among others. It uses data on billionaires’ fortunes from rankings by Forbes. We label each billionaire as a crony or not, based on the industry in which he is most active. We compare countries’ total crony wealth to their GDP. We show results for 22 economies: the five largest rich ones, the ten biggest emerging ones for which reliable data are available and a selection of other countries where cronyism is a problem (see chart 3). The index does not attempt to capture petty graft, for example bribes for expediting forms or avoiding traffic penalties, which is endemic in many countries. 


The rich world has lots of billionaires but fewer cronies. Only 14% of billionaire wealth is from rent-heavy industries. Wall Street continues to be controversial in America but its tycoons feature more prominently in populist politicians’ stump speeches than in the billionaire rankings. We classify deposit-taking banking as a crony industry because of its implicit state guarantee, but if we lumped in hedge-fund billionaires and other financiers, too, the share of American billionaire wealth from crony industries would rise from 14% to 28%. George Soros, by far the richest man in the hedge-fund game, is worth the same as Phil Knight, a relative unknown who sells Nike training shoes. Mr Soros’s fortune is only a third as large as the technologyderived fortune of Bill Gates. 

stump speech: 〈米〉〔遊説中の政治家の〕街頭演説◆【語源】昔の政治家が切り株に乗って演説をしたことがあることから。
deposit-taking banking:預金受け入れ銀行業務
by far:群を抜いて

Developing economies account for 43% of global GDP but 65% of crony wealth. Of the big countries Russia still scores worst, reflecting its corruption and dependence on natural resources. Both its crony wealth and GDP have fallen in dollar terms in the past two years, reflecting the rouble’s collapse. Their ratio is not much changed since 2014. Ukraine and Malaysia continue to score badly on the index, too. In both cases cronyism has led to political instability. Try to pay a backhander to an official in Singapore and you are likely to get arrested. But the city state scores poorly because of its role as an entrepot for racier neighbours, and its property and banking clans. 


木曜日。今日はこれまで。縁故資本主義は一番がロシアで、あとはマレーシア、意外に、シンガポールも汚職の問題がないが、そうした連中が集まってきているので、悪い評価が高くないというのは面白い。発展途上国がその比率が高い。43% of global GDP but 65% of crony wealthということだ。


swingby_blog at 09:06コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 



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