最悪を予想している 連邦準備制度理事会の理事はなぜ金利を上げることができないかを理解しようとしている(3)

Where I think Mr Bullard begins to go off course is in treating the Fed’s behaviour like a zero-interest-rate peg. Yes, interest rates have been below 0.5% for nearly eight years, and the Fed has consistently promised to raise rates gradually. But it has promised to raise rates gradually, which is not the sort of thing a zero-rate targeting central bank would do. More importantly, markets have believed that the Fed would raise rates. When the fed fund futures contract for July 2016 began trading back in 2013, markets reckoned that the interest rate set at the July meeting would be in the neighbourhood of 1.5% to 2%. That was in line with the dots published by the Fed at the time. The Fed told markets that rates were going up, and markets saw no reason to disbelieve.

go off course:針路をそれる

As it turned out, both markets and the Fed were far too optimistic; over time the expected path of rate hikes has been both pushed forward into the future and it has flattened. Markets now think that the fed fund rate will be no higher than 1% three years hence. Maybe this shift has occurred because the Fed has signalled more strongly that it is pursuing a zero-rate peg, but I doubt it; in every published projection since 2013, the dots have continued to rise up to some “normal” rate well above zero.

As it turned out:後でわかったことだが、・蓋を開ければ

I would argue that Mr Bullard is wrong; it is not the case that the Fed is choosing low rates and inflation expectations are therefore converging toward a low level. I would argue that the Fed has been targeting very low inflation, and falling inflation expectations imply much lower interest rates in future.

This dynamic is there back in 2013. In its projections the Fed indicates that rates will rise steadily, even as it projects that inflation will be extraordinarily low, just over 1% in 2013, converging, finally, toward 2% by the end of 2015. Essentially every set of Fed projections since then has shown the same thing. It allowed its QE programmes to end despite too-low inflation, and it raise its interest rate in December despite too-low inflation. The Fed has signalled very strongly that markets should expect inflation to remain at very low levels, indeed, below target. It would be shocking if inflation expectations hadn’t trended inevitably downward.

Now return to the Fisher equation. If the global real interest rate is in the neighbourhood of 0% and expected inflation is in the neighbourhood of 1%, that suggests the Fed will have an extremely difficult time raising nominal interest rates beyond 1%. Mr Bullard has the regime right, but the causation wrong. The Fed has driven the economy into this rut in its determination to keep inflation low.

rut :轍・マンネリ

Is there a route out? Ironically, Mr Bullard’s low dots might provide a path. Where in the past the Fed has promised to raise rates even as inflation stays low, it could instead promise to keep them low no matter what, even if, and indeed until, inflation rises above the target. If the Fed wants higher nominal rates in a world of low real rates, it must cultivate higher inflation.


What is needed most, though, is for the Fed to remember that job one is to coordinate the market’s expectations. Mr Bullard gets one very important thing absolutely right: there is no normal nominal rate to which the economy is bound to converge. The Fed can choose whether nominal rates get stuck near zero or rise to a higher, safer level. Right now, unfortunately, it is steering the American economy firmly into a low-rate rut.




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最悪を予想している 連邦準備制度理事会の理事はなぜ金利を上げることができないかを理解しようとしている(2)

The first, described as the St Louis Fed’s new characterisation of the economy, is here. In it, Mr Bullard says that there can be multiple productivity regimes—low and high, for instance, corresponding to slower or faster trend growth—but that the Fed has no way to predict when a move from one to another will occur (and should not try to in making its projections). There can also be multiple real interest rate regimes, based on things like the supply and demand for capital and the liquidity premium on safe assets. The interest-rate regime also seems to be persistent, with switches that can’t easily be predicted. For the economy to look wildly different from its current state, one of those two factors, productivity and real interest rates, would need to flip to some new regime. But they probably won’t, Mr Bullard says, and so the economy probably won’t look wildly different. 

productivity regime:生産性の体制
liquidity premium:流動性プレミアムとは、流動性の低い有価証券に付加されるプレミアムのこと。 一般に長期債券の方が、短期債券よりも利回りが高くなるが、これは長期債券の利回りに流動性プレミアムが付加されているからだと説明される。
capital-safe asset:資本保証資産 
flip to:変わる

That story is interesting, but not especially monetary. Reading it one suspects there are more things going on in the background. And there might well be. In another piece published this month, Mr Bullard posits a very different sort of regime-based world. It is one that is rooted in the “Neo-Fisherian” ideas (so called because of their relation to the work of Irving Fisher) recently developed by John Cochrane, of the University of Chicago. Neo-Fisherians make a pretty simple point: nominal interest rates in an economy are a function of both the underlying real interest rate and the expected rate of inflation. The real interest rate is determined by markets and will converge over time to some natural rate. That implies that if a central bank sets a particular nominal interest rate, the long-run inflation rate is necessarily pinned down. And that, in turn, implies that if central banks raise interest rates dramatically, that will eventually and inevitably lead to high inflation. 

The Neo-Fisherian Proposition: The Neo-Fisherian proposition is that a persistent policy-induced increase in short-term nominal interest rates will lead to higher inflation in the long-run.
necessarily :必然的に

One way of looking at recent macroeconomic experience, suggests Mr Bullard, is that the Fed has been targeting a near-zero interest rate. With the nominal interest rate effectively pegged at zero, inflation was inevitably going to settle into a lower regime. It has done so. While it remains in that regime, Mr Bullard says, long-run real economic growth will mostly depend on fundamentals—that is, on the productivity regime. Meanwhile, most central banks will find themselves needed to rely on quantative easing to address any future shocks to demand. 

This is all very interesting, but I think the conclusions Mr Bullard draws are a little off. Start, though, with where he is correct. The Fed cannot predict changes in productivity, and neither can monetary policy affect long-run real economic growth. It wouldn’t make sense for the Fed to target real GDP growth, but then, the Fed is not really in that business. The Fed is also unable to control the long-run real interest rate, which is a function of global saving and investment. What’s more, it does seem clear that the global real interest rate has settled down to a level of approximately zero. 

But does it follow that the Fed should then either 1) set a high nominal interest rate in order to achieve higher inflation, or 2) keep its interest rate low and accept low inflation? I don’t believe so. 



swingby_blog at 09:20コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


最悪を予想している 連邦準備制度理事会の理事はなぜ金利を上げることができないかを理解しようとしている

Expect the worst
Fed officials try to understand why they cannot keep raising rates
Jun 20th 2016, 11:21 BY R.A. | LONDON


FOUR times a year the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve board that sets monetary policy, concludes with a special flourish: a press conference, and the publication of the members’ economic projections. The latter includes a “dot plot” which shows how members think rates will unfold over the next few years. When the new dots were released at the end of the June meeting, on the 15th, it quickly became clear that one was not like the others. FOMC members overwhelmingly see the Fed’s main interest rate rising to between 1% and 2% in 2017, then on to between 2% and 3% in 2018: all of them, that is, except one. That oddball member projected the interest rate would stay right about where it is now over the next two years. When the projections dropped, Fed watchers immediately speculated about just which member had turned super-dovish (or super pessimistic). 

Federal Open Market Committee:連邦公開市場委員会◆【略】FOMC
Federal Reserve board:連邦準備制度理事会
with a flourish:華々しく
ドットプロット(Dot plot)とは、統計用グラフの一種。横軸に名義尺度(カテゴリ、番号など)を取り、1標本を1個の点(ドット)で表現する。

Two days later, all was revealed. The anomalous dots belonged to James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, and traditionally a bit of a hawk. But Mr Bullard’s dots represent something more interesting than a simple shift in the outlook for the economy. As he made clear in two statements published on June 17th, his whole way of thinking about monetary policy in the economy has changed. 


Mr Bullard begins by noting that the Fed seems to have more or less succeeded in achieving its mandates. The unemployment rate, at 4.7%, is about as low as it ever gets. Meanwhile, inflation is close to returning to the Fed’s 2% target. Growth is plodding along in steady fashion. And yet this is all occurring against a policy backdrop that remains wildly out of the ordinary, at least by pre-crisis standards. The Fed’s main interest rate is barely above zero (and has plumbed such depths for the last eight years). The Fed’s balance sheet remains at the enormous size to which it grew during multiple quantitative-easing operations. And the Fed is promising to raise rates only very, very gradually. Monetary policy, as the central bank constantly insists, is highly accommodative. And yet the economy is behaving like it is coasting along the gentlest of downward slopes. 


One could interpret this puzzling outcome in a few ways. Mr Bullard sees it as evidence that the economy does not converge toward some steady state, “normal” condition, in which interest rates sit at a comfortable 4% or so. The idea that eventually the natural processes of the economy will support “lift off” and “normalisation” is wrong, he thinks. 

lift off:離昇・打ち上げる

Instead, there are many stable regimes in which an economy can land, he reckons, and which can be stable until some shock comes along to push it out. Right now, the American economy is in a low growth, low inflation, low interest-rate regime. It has been stuck there for years, even as the Fed’s published projections suggest that a rise back to “normal” rates is just over the horizon. Mr Bullard is effectively saying: let’s dispense with that fantasy. 

dispense with :なしで済ます

The willingness to take a hard look at this experience and ask whether the Fed hasn’t gotten something wrong is certainly commendable. But “things seem to stay as they are until disturbed” needs more fleshing out to work as a theory of monetary policy. Mr Bullard offers two broad stories about his regime-based view of the economy, with quite different implications. 

take a hard look at:綿密に調べる

火曜日。珍しく、今日は金融の記事だ。金利がどうなるか心配で取り上げた。イリノイ連銀の頭取のJames Bullardは経済がまだ停滞しているし、少なくとも金融危機の前のレベルまできたが、まだ金利を上げるところまでは行っていない。慎重な意見を持っている。


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ジョーコックスの殺害 世話やきの代償(2)

That is a reminder of the dangers MPs face daily; the price they pay for listening to their constituents and making themselves so approachable. A report cited by the Guardian just in January documented the abuse to which parliamentarians are routinely subjected. Of the 239 MPs surveyed, 192 said they had experienced “aggressive or intrusive behaviour”, 43 that they had been subjected to attacks or attempted attacks, 101 that they had received threats of harm. Reports included accounts of being punched in the face; of being hit with a brick; of their children being told that they would be killed; of having petrol poured through the letter box. The authorities were already trying to improve security for MPs when yesterday’s attack took place. Fresh safety advice has now been issued. 

abuse :悪口・暴力

It is their very visibility to their constituents—that noble hallmark of the British system—that makes MPs targets for loners, extremists and the furious. The lurid rantings of such people regularly make it into parliamentary mail bags, as I have witnessed both working in one MP’s office and visiting dozens of others as a journalist. In one I was shown a thick wad of paper from one constituent, perhaps one hundred pages thick, filled with dense, spidery, scatological fantasies of violence and destruction. It was not untypical, I was told. 

mail bag:郵便袋

The abuse is not confined to the deranged. It arises in an environment in which the stereotype of the lazy, venal, self-serving MP is depressingly widely accepted. This has deep roots in Britons’ ancient scepticism of authority. Yet particularly since the 2009 expenses scandal, when a handful of (frankly rather minor) scoundrels gave the decent majority a bad name, this has curdled into something darker, something nastier. In the heat of the EU referendum campaign I have attended a series of events (for the Leave side, it must be said) at which placid, middle-class Middle England types have parroted not just the usual gormless claims about MPs (“They’re all the same”, “They’re all in it for themselves”) but have tipped into outright conspiracy theorising. Britain is not a democracy, its politicians are just puppets for shadowy corporate and foreign forces, they are traitors. 

self-serving :私欲に走る
tipped into:タレコミをする・傾ける

Such was the febrile atmosphere in which Ms Cox was slain. It is too early to say whether it was a big-P “political” act; early reports claim Mr Mair shouted “Britain First” and has links to far-right groups. But irrespective of what investigators discover about the causes of the murder, yesterday’s ghastly incident is unequivocally political in at least one respect: it took place as a hard-working, public-spirited MP was among her constituents, serving them, trying to make their lives better; yet in a society in which such efforts go scandalously overlooked. 

slain:殺害する slay

Were it not for its frightening underside, the popular view of politicians would be laughable in its utter inaccuracy. Britain is one of the least corrupt countries in the world; its politicians are probably cleaner and more accountable than those in any European country outside Scandinavia. MPs are not well paid compared with other parliamentarians and other professionals in the public service. Most work spectacularly long hours, spend chunks of most weeks in what amount to glorified student digs in London, have little time for their families. Why? There is a dose of ego in the equation, of course. But far more prominent is a genuine commitment to the public good, a desire to do something positive and meaningful. The quest to “give something back” is no less sincere and important for being cliched. 

chunks of:たくさんの
student digs:ガリ勉家
in the equation:等式の中に
no less:確かに

And yes, it is healthy for citizens to hold their representatives to account, to interrogate and challenge, to adopt a sceptical attitude towards the decisions they take and to boot them out when they fail. But Britain in 2016 has gone far, far beyond that. A country so intensely suspicious about its leaders, so wide-eyed in its willingness to believe the worst, so thirsty for proof of betrayal and decadence, is not a country in a good place. 

boot them out:クビにする
gone far beyond:大きくそれる



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ジョーコックスの殺害 世話やきの代償

Jo Cox’s murder
The price of caring
Jun 17th 2016, 11:57 BY BAGEHOT


SOME reports have it that Thomas Mair, the 52-year-old man arrested for yesterday’s fatal attack on Jo Cox, a Labour MP, was waiting for her outside the Yorkshire library where she was holding a constituency surgery. Whether or not this turns out to have been the case, her murder is a stark illustration of the risks MPs take by making themselves so available to their constituents. 

MP:the Member of Parliamentの略で、議会の構成員
constituency surgery:選挙民との面談
been the case:事実かどうか
stark illustration:厳しい実例

What is under-appreciated in Britain is how special this is. I have complained about First Past the Post (FPTP) in the past. But it is undeniable that it makes politicians more personally responsible to their constituents. In proportional systems some or all MPs have no specific loyalty to a particular, narrow geographical area. By contrast all Britons have a representative whose job it is to voice their interests and those of their neighbours. Moreover, most of those representatives give their constituents a degree of access unparalleled in other countries. 

first-past-the-post system: 〈英〉小選挙区制  first past the post 先着順  小選挙区制◆英の選挙の制度。最も多数の投票数を得た者が当選する
proportional representation: (選挙の)比例代表制 

During election campaigns, they will typically go door-knocking (on the continent street stalls and rallies are preferred). Between elections, most hold regular surgeries, like the one outside which Ms Cox was attacked yesterday. Constituents can attend these—sometimes simply turning up on the day and waiting in line—to raise their opinions, concerns and problems. Subjects range from badger culls and foreign policy to abusive neighbours and violent crime. Often these occasions function as the public-service-of-last-resort: a final hope for citizens who feel ignored or let down by, say, the police, the National Health Service or the local council. People driven to desperation can act in desperate ways. Yet most MPs continue to hold their surgeries regularly, and publicise them widely. 

street stalls and rallies:露天や集会
Badger Cull:アナグマ狩り イギリスで、ウシ型結核菌を媒体する野生動物で、感染源として非難されるのが、バジャー(Badger:アナグマ)です。 このため、この10年で、約11,000頭の野生のアナグマが殺されてきたそうですが、これが牛の結核の蔓延を直接的に防ぐことになるのか、答えはまだはっきり出ていないらしいです。 
let down:見捨てる

The cynical response is to claim that they do so only to secure re-election. Not so. Studies have suggested that time spent in these meetings would be more fruitfully used (in electoral terms, at least) canvassing swing voters, or nurturing journalists. Often surgeries are dominated by repeat visitors, those at the juncture of multiple social fractures (poor health, crime, poverty) who are unlikely to vote come election time and may not even know which party their MP represents. 

cynical :ひねくれた
canvassing :勧誘して回る
multiple social fracture:輻輳した社会的な破壊

Moreover, one of the other traits of FPTP is that it creates safe seats. There are plenty of MPs who, frankly, could ignore their constituents and still win elections. Practically none do. I witnessed this a couple of years ago when working on an article about the role of surgeries. First I spent a day with Jacob Rees-Mogg, who represents a corner of Somerset where they virtually weigh the Tory vote. But it is not without its social problems. And although Mr Rees-Mogg has a reputation for being a rather grand, fogeyish type, I was profoundly impressed watching him respond as his voters unburdened their woes on him. From volcanic disputes between neighbours to a constituent with a long-term health problem (who suffered a sort of fit during the meeting) and a woman reduced to tears by debt problems, he offered each sensitive, practical and informed advice and explained what he and his office could do to help. 

a sort of fit :ある種の適合・かみ合い

Then I sat in on a surgery with Rushanara Ali, the Labour MP for Bethnal Green and Bow. This too was—and is—an extremely safe seat. Yet in a run-down council building she dealt with a long series of terrible accounts of bureaucratic indifference and institutional failure (many concerning the immigration system) with calm professionalism, switching between Bengali and English often within conversations with the same family. Her temporary office was protected by a punch-code lock while—if I remember correctly—a security guard stood outside. Only a couple of years previously Stephen Timms, the MP for nearby East Ham, had been stabbed in the abdomen at one of his surgeries. 

punch-code lock:暗証番号を打ち込むような鍵



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倒れてはいるが消滅してはいない。 最新情報 リビアでのイスラム国との戦い

Down but not out
All latest updates
Fighting Islamic State in Libya
The battle for Sirte
Jun 17th 2016 | CAIRO | Middle East and Africa

最新情報 リビアでのイスラム国との戦い

FOR a wonderful few days, it seemed that Libya’s new Government of National Accord (GNA), headed by Fayez al-Serraj, the prime minister, was on the verge of a momentous victory last week. Forces aligned with Mr Serraj had driven the jihadists of Islamic State (IS) back over 100 miles. They then captured the airport and seaport of Sirte, the group’s stronghold and the hometown of Muammar Qaddafi, the Libyan dictator overthrown (and killed) in 2011. The jihadists were pinned down in the city centre. “The operation will not last much longer,” said Muhammad Ghassri, the GNA’s spokesman, on June 9th. 

Government of National Accord:国民合意の政府
on the verge of:今にも〜しようとして
aligned with :連携した
pinned down:身動きできなくする

But up to that point, IS had not put up much resistance. Now the jihadists are hitting back in an attempt to retake the port and other areas. Hundreds of its fighters, many from abroad, remain holed up in Sirte. The GNA’s offensive has stalled. Its forces, made up mostly of militias from Misrata, in the west, have thus far shown a willingness to take casualties. More than 100 of their men have died and some 500 have been injured. But in order to clear Sirte of jihadists, more sacrifice will be needed. 

put up:企てる
holed up:潜伏する
take casualties:死傷者を出す

The fighting has certainly hurt IS, which had used its control of roughly 180 miles (290km) of coastline around Sirte to bring in supplies and new recruits. It has now lost almost all of that territory—the latest in a string of setbacks for the jihadists. In February militias backed by American air strikes destroyed its base in Sabratha, in the west. Last year local forces kicked it out of Derna, in north-east Libya. The group’s collapse has led some to doubt previous estimates that it had some 6,000 fighters in Libya, which was seen as a growing jihadist hub. 

used its control:その支配力を利用してきた
setbacks for:痛手を与える

Many of the group’s leaders are thought to have slipped out of Sirte and gone south. The GNA had threatened its offensive for weeks, so the jihadists knew it was coming. Though aided by American and British soldiers, who are helping with logistics and intelligence, the GNA’s forces failed to secure all of the routes out of Sirte. That would have needed better co-ordination with local militias. “Even if Sirte is liberated, that does not mean that IS is gone from Libya,” says Jason Pack of Eye On ISIS in Libya, a monitoring service. 

 it was coming:いよいよ

The offensive may also be intensifying rivalries in Libya, which has been mired in a hot and cold civil war for over two years. The two-month-old GNA, which is backed by the UN and based in Tripoli, the capital, has largely displaced the former government in the west. But it still has not won the support of a rival government in the east. The Libyan National Army, which is led by Khalifa Haftar and aligned to the eastern government, has not participated in the battle for Sirte. The parliament in the east, which must approve the UN-sponsored agreement creating the GNA, says it will vote on the deal—a promise it has made before. 

vote on the deal:取引に賛成投票をする

The GNA’s quick advance has, for now, weakened Mr Haftar’s claim to be the West’s best hope of defeating Libya’s jihadists. He looms over the eastern government and is often considered a spoiler of efforts to unify the country. Some say he is losing recruits to the GNA. But it too has been exposed. Its fighting force, drawn from the western town of Misrata, is much the same as the one that backed the old western government and battled Mr Haftar. “It is not a unity government, just a rebranding of Misratan militias,” says Mr Pack. Their loyalty can be fickle. Last year they fought another militia that is now attacking IS from the east. 

looms over :ぼんやりと現れる

Despite controlling state institutions, such as the central bank and the national oil firm, the GNA has struggled to establish its authority. It has also been reluctant to assert it in some areas, so as to avoid fuelling separatist sentiment in the east. The offensive against IS, if successful, may rally more Libyans to its side. The UN also hopes to give it a boost: on June 14th the UN Security Council authorised a European naval mission to enforce an arms embargo on Libya. 

But there is also now the risk of the jihadists resorting more to terrorism, as they have done elsewhere in the region. An attack in Tripoli or on state infrastructure could quickly undermine the gains the GNA has made. IS was able to gain ground in Libya because a lack of unity led to chaos. That underlying problem still has not been solved. 

resort to:に訴える



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