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グローバル人材育成の道｜海野惠一（元アクセンチュア代表）2016年07月
2016年07月25日
トルコのメディアと役人ですらアメリカがこの陰謀に加担していることを非難している。(2) イギリス議会は核兵器を廃止するかどうかを審議しようとその準備に入った。
From the American perspective, Turkey has never been fully committed to the war against Islamist groups in Syria. For years, the Americans have pressed Turkey to do more to stop jihadist fighters slipping in and out of Syria to join up with (or carry out missions for) IS and other Islamist groups. It is in Turkey’s own interest to do so. IS has carried out several big terror attacks inside Turkey, including the suicide-bombing in June of Istanbul’s Ataturk airport. Few doubt it will strike again.
Ash Carter, America’s defence secretary, makes no secret of his distaste for Turkey’s president. Calls to replace Incirlik with a base elsewhere in the region are growing louder in America’s Congress. Meanwhile, Mr Gulen may threaten Turkish stability, but nothing like as seriously as the jihadists both inside and outside the country. Turkey needs friendship with America more than ever. Instead, in a paroxysm of post-coup paranoia, Mr Erdogan is putting the entire alliance at risk.
makes no secret of ：を隠さない
distaste：嫌気
paroxysm：抑えきれない感情
paranoia：被害妄想
トルコはISISを本気で攻撃していないとアメリカを疑っている。今はそういう状況ではない。さらにトルコのアメリカとの関係は悪くなってはいけないとエコノミスト言っている。今回のクーデターもエルドアン自身が反体制派を抑えるために仕掛けたものかもしれない。どうも今のトルコの反体制派への粛清が行き過ぎているようだ。これで死刑が復活したら、大量の死刑囚が発生し、世界から批判が集中することだろう。
The nuclear option
Parliament prepares to deliberate on whether to ban the bomb
Jul 16th 2016 | From the print edition
deliberate：審議する
核兵器を保有する選択
議会は核兵器を廃止するかどうかを審議しようとその準備に入った。
No substitute
NINE countries are believed to have nuclear weapons. On July 18th Britain will decide whether it wants to remain in that club, when its MPs debate whether to renew the country’s Trident nuclear deterrent. Theresa May, the new prime minister, has said it would be “sheer madness” to give it up, and the vote is expected to pass easily. Perhaps 150 of Labour’s 230 MPs will vote in favour of the plan, rebelling against their leader, Jeremy Corbyn.
No substitute：代替はない
Trident： トライデント◆米国の潜水艦発射ICBM。Polaris、Poseidonの後継ミサイル。
nuclear deterrent：核抑止力
sheer madness：全くの気違い沙汰
rebelling：反抗する
The House of Commons approved in principle the retention of a nuclear deterrent in 2007. A review in 2013 reaffirmed that “like-for-like” replacement of the four submarines that carry the missiles represented the best and most cost-effective way to do it. Parliament will now decide whether to approve the spending of £31 billion ($41 billion) over 20 years to replace the four Vanguard-class subs, which will wear out within a decade.
The House of Commons：下院
like-for-like replacement：同等の交換
wear out：傷む
Trident’s detractors argue that a lot has changed since the programme was approved in 2007. For one thing money is tighter. Around one-quarter of defence spending on new equipment procurement will be on submarine and deterrent systems by 2021-22. There has also been a surge in support for independence in Scotland, where the submarines are based. It is unlikely that the government would choose to site the capability north of the border if the renewal process began again now, says William Walker of St Andrew’s University. The Scottish government opposes the plan; almost all of the 59 Scottish MPs at Westminster are expected to vote against it (though polls suggest that public opinion in Scotland is more mixed). If Scotland were to become independent—now more likely because of Brexit—Britain could well have to relocate its subs, at further expense.
detractors：批判的な人たち
surge：急に高まること
Critics also say Trident relies too much on a single naval platform (America has air, land and sea options), and that improved ballistic-missile defences and the future use of underwater drones and cyber warfare could threaten the subs’ security. Yet land-based ballistic missiles are vulnerable to attack, and arming aircraft with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles permanently aloft carries a significant danger of nuclear accident and is much more expensive. The cut-price option of building three submarines rather than four would be a false economy, undermining the principle of “continuous at-sea deterrence”.
aloft：空中に
false：誤った
undermining：蝕む
The vote comes at a time when few in Britain are minded to dial down the country’s defence capabilities. Mrs May has cited Russia’s renewed belligerence as one justification for updating Trident. And Brexit has left the country, and its allies, shaken. Britain’s partners would be sensitive to signs of more isolationism, says Malcolm Chalmers of RUSI, a think-tank. Britain has the largest defence budget in Europe; maintaining nuclear capabilities shows that it is still committed to NATO. “Our allies would not understand if we chose this moment to give up our nuclear weapons,” Mr Chalmers says.
dial down：トーンダウンする
belligerence：攻撃的な行動
justification：正当な理由
The vote is also linked to Britain’s image of itself. Last year a strategic review boosted defence spending, as part of an effort to restore Britain’s standing as a military power after years of cuts. Trident is part of that. Though it is expensive and imperfect, most MPs, and their constituents, believe it still helps to make Britain safe, and is a force for stability—something of which it has had precious little in recent weeks.
imperfect：不十分な
precious little [few]： とても少ない (!本来は多いはずであることを暗示) .
月曜日。今日はこれまで。イギリス政府が潜水艦発射ICBMの更新をどうするかの議論だ。止めようとする考えがあるが、メイ首相は馬鹿げたことだと言っている。ただ投票すれば廃止になってhしまうかもしれない。ロシアの動きも見ながら、NATOとの連携を考えると止めるべきでなないという意見だ。
昨日は１日水曜日の海野塾の資料を作成していた。今朝は朝会がある。昼食はインタートレードの内藤さんだ。午後からは明日の講演の勉強がある。２時間は本も書きたい。ではまた明日。
Ash Carter, America’s defence secretary, makes no secret of his distaste for Turkey’s president. Calls to replace Incirlik with a base elsewhere in the region are growing louder in America’s Congress. Meanwhile, Mr Gulen may threaten Turkish stability, but nothing like as seriously as the jihadists both inside and outside the country. Turkey needs friendship with America more than ever. Instead, in a paroxysm of post-coup paranoia, Mr Erdogan is putting the entire alliance at risk.
makes no secret of ：を隠さない
distaste：嫌気
paroxysm：抑えきれない感情
paranoia：被害妄想
トルコはISISを本気で攻撃していないとアメリカを疑っている。今はそういう状況ではない。さらにトルコのアメリカとの関係は悪くなってはいけないとエコノミスト言っている。今回のクーデターもエルドアン自身が反体制派を抑えるために仕掛けたものかもしれない。どうも今のトルコの反体制派への粛清が行き過ぎているようだ。これで死刑が復活したら、大量の死刑囚が発生し、世界から批判が集中することだろう。
The nuclear option
Parliament prepares to deliberate on whether to ban the bomb
Jul 16th 2016 | From the print edition
deliberate：審議する
核兵器を保有する選択
議会は核兵器を廃止するかどうかを審議しようとその準備に入った。
No substitute
NINE countries are believed to have nuclear weapons. On July 18th Britain will decide whether it wants to remain in that club, when its MPs debate whether to renew the country’s Trident nuclear deterrent. Theresa May, the new prime minister, has said it would be “sheer madness” to give it up, and the vote is expected to pass easily. Perhaps 150 of Labour’s 230 MPs will vote in favour of the plan, rebelling against their leader, Jeremy Corbyn.
No substitute：代替はない
Trident： トライデント◆米国の潜水艦発射ICBM。Polaris、Poseidonの後継ミサイル。
nuclear deterrent：核抑止力
sheer madness：全くの気違い沙汰
rebelling：反抗する
The House of Commons approved in principle the retention of a nuclear deterrent in 2007. A review in 2013 reaffirmed that “like-for-like” replacement of the four submarines that carry the missiles represented the best and most cost-effective way to do it. Parliament will now decide whether to approve the spending of £31 billion ($41 billion) over 20 years to replace the four Vanguard-class subs, which will wear out within a decade.
The House of Commons：下院
like-for-like replacement：同等の交換
wear out：傷む
Trident’s detractors argue that a lot has changed since the programme was approved in 2007. For one thing money is tighter. Around one-quarter of defence spending on new equipment procurement will be on submarine and deterrent systems by 2021-22. There has also been a surge in support for independence in Scotland, where the submarines are based. It is unlikely that the government would choose to site the capability north of the border if the renewal process began again now, says William Walker of St Andrew’s University. The Scottish government opposes the plan; almost all of the 59 Scottish MPs at Westminster are expected to vote against it (though polls suggest that public opinion in Scotland is more mixed). If Scotland were to become independent—now more likely because of Brexit—Britain could well have to relocate its subs, at further expense.
detractors：批判的な人たち
surge：急に高まること
Critics also say Trident relies too much on a single naval platform (America has air, land and sea options), and that improved ballistic-missile defences and the future use of underwater drones and cyber warfare could threaten the subs’ security. Yet land-based ballistic missiles are vulnerable to attack, and arming aircraft with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles permanently aloft carries a significant danger of nuclear accident and is much more expensive. The cut-price option of building three submarines rather than four would be a false economy, undermining the principle of “continuous at-sea deterrence”.
aloft：空中に
false：誤った
undermining：蝕む
The vote comes at a time when few in Britain are minded to dial down the country’s defence capabilities. Mrs May has cited Russia’s renewed belligerence as one justification for updating Trident. And Brexit has left the country, and its allies, shaken. Britain’s partners would be sensitive to signs of more isolationism, says Malcolm Chalmers of RUSI, a think-tank. Britain has the largest defence budget in Europe; maintaining nuclear capabilities shows that it is still committed to NATO. “Our allies would not understand if we chose this moment to give up our nuclear weapons,” Mr Chalmers says.
dial down：トーンダウンする
belligerence：攻撃的な行動
justification：正当な理由
The vote is also linked to Britain’s image of itself. Last year a strategic review boosted defence spending, as part of an effort to restore Britain’s standing as a military power after years of cuts. Trident is part of that. Though it is expensive and imperfect, most MPs, and their constituents, believe it still helps to make Britain safe, and is a force for stability—something of which it has had precious little in recent weeks.
imperfect：不十分な
precious little [few]： とても少ない (!本来は多いはずであることを暗示) .
月曜日。今日はこれまで。イギリス政府が潜水艦発射ICBMの更新をどうするかの議論だ。止めようとする考えがあるが、メイ首相は馬鹿げたことだと言っている。ただ投票すれば廃止になってhしまうかもしれない。ロシアの動きも見ながら、NATOとの連携を考えると止めるべきでなないという意見だ。
昨日は１日水曜日の海野塾の資料を作成していた。今朝は朝会がある。昼食はインタートレードの内藤さんだ。午後からは明日の講演の勉強がある。２時間は本も書きたい。ではまた明日。
2016年07月24日
クーデターの後トルコはアメリカに敵対している。 トルコのメディアと役人ですらアメリカがこの陰謀に加担していることを非難している。
After the coup, Turkey turns against America
Turkish media and even government officials accuse America of being in on the plot
Jul 18th 2016 | ISTANBUL | Europe
クーデターの後トルコはアメリカに敵対している。
トルコのメディアと役人ですらアメリカがこの陰謀に加担していることを非難している。
SINCE the 1960s, whenever Turkey’s meddlesome generals have seized power, Turks have accused America of being responsible. After the botched coup attempt on July 15th by a cabal of mid-ranking generals and junior officers, the old reflex appeared again. Turkey’s labour minister, Suleyman Soylu, declared that America was behind the attempt to overthrow the country’s Islamist president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (He vaguely cited the “activities” of unnamed American magazines as proof.) Pro-government media outlets teemed with conspiracy theories. In a column in Yeni Safak, a daily newspaper, Aydin Unal, an MP from Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development party (AK), suggested that American army officers took part in the fighting. In previous decades such rants could be shrugged off. But this time they are part of an increasingly severe diplomatic crisis.
meddlesome：干渉したがる
botched：やりそこなう
cabal：陰謀団・陰謀
reflex：反射作用・鏡に映った像
unnamed：名前を明かさない
teemed：でいっぱいである
rants：わめき散らすこと
shrugged off：無視する
The reaction from John Kerry, America’s secretary of state, was uncharacteristically stiff. In a phone call to his Turkish opposite number, Mevlut Cavusoglu, on July 16th Mr Kerry said insinuations that America had played any role in the coup were “utterly false and harmful to our bilateral relations”. Speaking to an American news channel the following day, Mr Kerry warned Mr Erdogan against using the coup as an excuse to clamp down on his opponents. A wide-ranging purge, Mr Kerry said, “would be a great challenge to his relationship to Europe, to NATO and to all of us”.
uncharacteristically：珍しいことだが
stiff：よそよそしい
insinuations：ほのめかし・うまく取り入ること
AK is not heeding his advice. More than 7,000 people have been detained and thousands of judges and other bureaucrats purged. At least 11 online news portals associated with the opposition have been shut down. But the biggest source of friction is the presence in America of Fethullah Gulen, a cleric who leads a secretive Muslim sect, and whom the Turkish government accuses of masterminding the failed putsch.
heeding：耳を傾ける
cleric：聖職者
masterminding：背後で操る
putsch：反乱
Since 1999 Mr Gulen has been living in self-imposed exile in rural Pennsylvania. For years, Mr Erdogan has accused the imam, a former ally in his battle to declaw the army, of seeking to topple his government. The Turks demand that America hand him over. Yet Turkey has not formally requested Mr Gulen’s extradition; the file, over 1,000 pages long, has yet to be fully translated into English. Western diplomats reckon it will be padded with outlandish, conspiratorial claims, and that federal prosecutors will throw it out. Mr Erdogan would probably ramp up his anti-American rhetoric in response. Turkey’s prime minister, Binali Yildirim, has already warned that requiring “evidence” before booting out Mr Gulen would call America’s friendship with Turkey into doubt.
declaw：爪を除去する
hand him over：彼を引き渡す
extradition：本国送還
padded：詰め物をする
outlandish：わけのわからない
ramp up：増える・増やす
booting out：追い出す
That would be nothing new. Relations with America have seesawed ever since 1952, when Turkey became NATO’s first mainly Muslim member. Back then, Turkey was prized as an ally against the Soviet Union. Today it is seen as a buffer between Europe and the Middle East, with its homicidal jihadists and millions of Syrian refugees. And continued access to Turkey’s Incirlik air-base is vital to the American-led war effort against Islamic State (IS). Some Western officials worry that Turkey will seal off the base if America refuses to hand over Mr Gulen.
seesawed：揺れ動く
homicidal：殺人犯の
Turkey’s relations with America were already strained by America’s support for the Syrian Kurdish militia groups known as the People’s Protection Units (YPG). The YPG are widely seen as the most effective force fighting IS in Syria, but they are closely linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an outlawed guerrilla movement that has been fighting the Turkish state for decades in the name of Kurdish autonomy, and has carried out numerous terrorist attacks. Turkey views the YPG as terrorists too, and has repeatedly asked America to ditch them, only to be snubbed each time.
strained：緊張している
ditch：との関係を絶つ
snubbed：鼻であしらう
日曜日。今日はこれまで。トルコは今回のクーデターの背後にギュレンがいると言って、アメリカがそれに加担していると思っているようだ。アメリカがクルド人をISISを倒すために利用していることもトルコにとっては面白くない。そうしたことで、トルコとアメリカとの関係が悪化しそうだ。
さて、昨日は海野塾があった。Western style managementはなんどやっても楽しくて終わらない。もう３回もやったので、来週はテーマを変えることにした。今朝はこれから来週の海野塾の資料のレビューがある。いつもこの資料を作成する時には関連する資料を数多く読むようにしている。３日間はかけている。寸暇を惜しんで、本も書きたいので、今日はそれに２時間は割こうと思っている。ではまた明日。
Turkish media and even government officials accuse America of being in on the plot
Jul 18th 2016 | ISTANBUL | Europe
クーデターの後トルコはアメリカに敵対している。
トルコのメディアと役人ですらアメリカがこの陰謀に加担していることを非難している。
SINCE the 1960s, whenever Turkey’s meddlesome generals have seized power, Turks have accused America of being responsible. After the botched coup attempt on July 15th by a cabal of mid-ranking generals and junior officers, the old reflex appeared again. Turkey’s labour minister, Suleyman Soylu, declared that America was behind the attempt to overthrow the country’s Islamist president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (He vaguely cited the “activities” of unnamed American magazines as proof.) Pro-government media outlets teemed with conspiracy theories. In a column in Yeni Safak, a daily newspaper, Aydin Unal, an MP from Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development party (AK), suggested that American army officers took part in the fighting. In previous decades such rants could be shrugged off. But this time they are part of an increasingly severe diplomatic crisis.
meddlesome：干渉したがる
botched：やりそこなう
cabal：陰謀団・陰謀
reflex：反射作用・鏡に映った像
unnamed：名前を明かさない
teemed：でいっぱいである
rants：わめき散らすこと
shrugged off：無視する
The reaction from John Kerry, America’s secretary of state, was uncharacteristically stiff. In a phone call to his Turkish opposite number, Mevlut Cavusoglu, on July 16th Mr Kerry said insinuations that America had played any role in the coup were “utterly false and harmful to our bilateral relations”. Speaking to an American news channel the following day, Mr Kerry warned Mr Erdogan against using the coup as an excuse to clamp down on his opponents. A wide-ranging purge, Mr Kerry said, “would be a great challenge to his relationship to Europe, to NATO and to all of us”.
uncharacteristically：珍しいことだが
stiff：よそよそしい
insinuations：ほのめかし・うまく取り入ること
AK is not heeding his advice. More than 7,000 people have been detained and thousands of judges and other bureaucrats purged. At least 11 online news portals associated with the opposition have been shut down. But the biggest source of friction is the presence in America of Fethullah Gulen, a cleric who leads a secretive Muslim sect, and whom the Turkish government accuses of masterminding the failed putsch.
heeding：耳を傾ける
cleric：聖職者
masterminding：背後で操る
putsch：反乱
Since 1999 Mr Gulen has been living in self-imposed exile in rural Pennsylvania. For years, Mr Erdogan has accused the imam, a former ally in his battle to declaw the army, of seeking to topple his government. The Turks demand that America hand him over. Yet Turkey has not formally requested Mr Gulen’s extradition; the file, over 1,000 pages long, has yet to be fully translated into English. Western diplomats reckon it will be padded with outlandish, conspiratorial claims, and that federal prosecutors will throw it out. Mr Erdogan would probably ramp up his anti-American rhetoric in response. Turkey’s prime minister, Binali Yildirim, has already warned that requiring “evidence” before booting out Mr Gulen would call America’s friendship with Turkey into doubt.
declaw：爪を除去する
hand him over：彼を引き渡す
extradition：本国送還
padded：詰め物をする
outlandish：わけのわからない
ramp up：増える・増やす
booting out：追い出す
That would be nothing new. Relations with America have seesawed ever since 1952, when Turkey became NATO’s first mainly Muslim member. Back then, Turkey was prized as an ally against the Soviet Union. Today it is seen as a buffer between Europe and the Middle East, with its homicidal jihadists and millions of Syrian refugees. And continued access to Turkey’s Incirlik air-base is vital to the American-led war effort against Islamic State (IS). Some Western officials worry that Turkey will seal off the base if America refuses to hand over Mr Gulen.
seesawed：揺れ動く
homicidal：殺人犯の
Turkey’s relations with America were already strained by America’s support for the Syrian Kurdish militia groups known as the People’s Protection Units (YPG). The YPG are widely seen as the most effective force fighting IS in Syria, but they are closely linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an outlawed guerrilla movement that has been fighting the Turkish state for decades in the name of Kurdish autonomy, and has carried out numerous terrorist attacks. Turkey views the YPG as terrorists too, and has repeatedly asked America to ditch them, only to be snubbed each time.
strained：緊張している
ditch：との関係を絶つ
snubbed：鼻であしらう
日曜日。今日はこれまで。トルコは今回のクーデターの背後にギュレンがいると言って、アメリカがそれに加担していると思っているようだ。アメリカがクルド人をISISを倒すために利用していることもトルコにとっては面白くない。そうしたことで、トルコとアメリカとの関係が悪化しそうだ。
さて、昨日は海野塾があった。Western style managementはなんどやっても楽しくて終わらない。もう３回もやったので、来週はテーマを変えることにした。今朝はこれから来週の海野塾の資料のレビューがある。いつもこの資料を作成する時には関連する資料を数多く読むようにしている。３日間はかけている。寸暇を惜しんで、本も書きたいので、今日はそれに２時間は割こうと思っている。ではまた明日。
2016年07月23日
イギリスの無類の多様性が生活の中に浸透している。 自由主義者たちはこの国が寛容でなくなってしまうことを恐れている。しかしながらこの将来は明るい。(2)
Even if immigration were suddenly to stop, Britain would become more diverse. Immigrants have slightly more babies—their fertility rate in England and Wales is 2.1, compared with 1.8 for the natives. And diversity will spread. Immigrants tend to arrive in big cities and gradually move out, seeking bigger houses that they can afford. Between 2001 and 2011 (the last two census years) the proportion of black Africans in England and Wales who lived in London fell from 80% to 58%—a staggering exodus. Provincial towns such as Milton Keynes are rapidly becoming more racially mixed.
census year：国勢調査の年
proportion：割合
staggering：衝撃的な
exodus：集団移動
And although immigration will surely slow down—a consequence of economic weakness as much as government policy—it will not stop. No developed country can shut the door on all refugees, all foreign husbands and wives, and all skilled workers. Britain is highly unlikely even to keep out the unskilled. Though they have been largely forgotten, many foreign workers toiled in the fields of Lincolnshire and the food-processing factories of the Midlands even before Britain opened its doors to east Europeans in 2005. Some of those workers came in under a programme known as the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme, or SAWS. If Britain ends up leaving the European Economic Area and shutting down automatic free movement from the EU, farmers will lobby hard for a SAWS 2. They will undoubtedly get their way.
toiled：あくせく働く
As immigrants and their children multiply and disperse, the Britons who most dislike immigration will disappear. Old Britons voted to leave the EU in far greater numbers than young ones; the uneducated were much keener on exit than the educated. Britain is growing older, but this particular cohort of thinly educated old people (call it the UKIP cohort) is ageing out of the population. It will be replaced by successive cohorts that are more ethnically diverse and highly educated. In the early 1960s only 15% of school children got at least five good O-levels; today more than two-thirds get at least five good GCSEs and almost half of young people go to university.
multiply：大幅に増える
dispers：分散する
cohort：集団
successive：次に続く
O level： ｟英｠O[普通]級(の試験)(ordinary level)
GCSE： General Certificate of Secondary Education((英国の)中等教育一般証明書(試験))
So Britain will gradually change. While you wait for that to happen, though, remember that it is not at present a racist or intolerant country. Britons (including old, white, working-class Britons) might dislike immigration, but they tend also to dislike racism and discrimination. Eurobarometer, which obsessively polls Europeans on their prejudices, consistently finds that Britons are unusually relaxed about the idea of having a non-white political leader or non-white co-workers. The most recent poll, in 2015, found that only Swedes were as calm as Britons at the prospect of one of their children dating a Muslim.
racist：人種差別主義者
obsessively：過度に・執拗に
The vote to leave the EU was not a nativist revolution, as nativists fervently hope and liberals fear. It was more a desperate lashing out against the inevitable transformation of British society—the past kicking against the future. The kick hurt a lot. But the fight only ends one way.
nativist：移民排斥主義者
fervently：熱心に
desperate：深刻に・自暴自棄になって
lashing out ：痛烈に非難する
can only end one way： 行き着くところは一つだ、先が見えている◆悪い結末を暗示することが多い。
土曜日。移民してきた人たちは出生率も高いし、市内から郊外に移住していて、彼らは教養のレベルが高い。移民に反対しているのは高齢者で、教養レベルの低い人達だから、時間の経過の中で減っていくだろう。と言っている。この記事の驚いたのはスウェーデン人と英国人の子供達がイスラム教徒との付き合いに抵抗がないという統計があるというのは初耳だった。イスラム教徒の移民が悪いという報道が氾濫しすぎているのではないだろうか。日本人の多くが中国人を嫌っているのもこうした報道のせいだ。報道しているほど中国人は日本人を嫌っていない。
昨日は早稲田大学の白木先生のイベントに参加して、今度出版する本を配布させていただいた。懇親会も出席した。本は重かった。キャリアーも重かった。今日は海野塾だ。一週間は早い。ではまた明日。
census year：国勢調査の年
proportion：割合
staggering：衝撃的な
exodus：集団移動
And although immigration will surely slow down—a consequence of economic weakness as much as government policy—it will not stop. No developed country can shut the door on all refugees, all foreign husbands and wives, and all skilled workers. Britain is highly unlikely even to keep out the unskilled. Though they have been largely forgotten, many foreign workers toiled in the fields of Lincolnshire and the food-processing factories of the Midlands even before Britain opened its doors to east Europeans in 2005. Some of those workers came in under a programme known as the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme, or SAWS. If Britain ends up leaving the European Economic Area and shutting down automatic free movement from the EU, farmers will lobby hard for a SAWS 2. They will undoubtedly get their way.
toiled：あくせく働く
As immigrants and their children multiply and disperse, the Britons who most dislike immigration will disappear. Old Britons voted to leave the EU in far greater numbers than young ones; the uneducated were much keener on exit than the educated. Britain is growing older, but this particular cohort of thinly educated old people (call it the UKIP cohort) is ageing out of the population. It will be replaced by successive cohorts that are more ethnically diverse and highly educated. In the early 1960s only 15% of school children got at least five good O-levels; today more than two-thirds get at least five good GCSEs and almost half of young people go to university.
multiply：大幅に増える
dispers：分散する
cohort：集団
successive：次に続く
O level： ｟英｠O[普通]級(の試験)(ordinary level)
GCSE： General Certificate of Secondary Education((英国の)中等教育一般証明書(試験))
So Britain will gradually change. While you wait for that to happen, though, remember that it is not at present a racist or intolerant country. Britons (including old, white, working-class Britons) might dislike immigration, but they tend also to dislike racism and discrimination. Eurobarometer, which obsessively polls Europeans on their prejudices, consistently finds that Britons are unusually relaxed about the idea of having a non-white political leader or non-white co-workers. The most recent poll, in 2015, found that only Swedes were as calm as Britons at the prospect of one of their children dating a Muslim.
racist：人種差別主義者
obsessively：過度に・執拗に
The vote to leave the EU was not a nativist revolution, as nativists fervently hope and liberals fear. It was more a desperate lashing out against the inevitable transformation of British society—the past kicking against the future. The kick hurt a lot. But the fight only ends one way.
nativist：移民排斥主義者
fervently：熱心に
desperate：深刻に・自暴自棄になって
lashing out ：痛烈に非難する
can only end one way： 行き着くところは一つだ、先が見えている◆悪い結末を暗示することが多い。
土曜日。移民してきた人たちは出生率も高いし、市内から郊外に移住していて、彼らは教養のレベルが高い。移民に反対しているのは高齢者で、教養レベルの低い人達だから、時間の経過の中で減っていくだろう。と言っている。この記事の驚いたのはスウェーデン人と英国人の子供達がイスラム教徒との付き合いに抵抗がないという統計があるというのは初耳だった。イスラム教徒の移民が悪いという報道が氾濫しすぎているのではないだろうか。日本人の多くが中国人を嫌っているのもこうした報道のせいだ。報道しているほど中国人は日本人を嫌っていない。
昨日は早稲田大学の白木先生のイベントに参加して、今度出版する本を配布させていただいた。懇親会も出席した。本は重かった。キャリアーも重かった。今日は海野塾だ。一週間は早い。ではまた明日。
2016年07月22日
イギリスの無類の多様性が生活の中に浸透している。 自由主義者たちはこの国が寛容でなくなってしまうことを恐れている。しかしながらこの将来は明るい。
Britain’s unparalleled diversity is here to stay
Liberals fear their country will become a less tolerant place. But the future is bright
Jul 18th 2016 | Britain
unparalleled：無比の
diversity：多様性
here to stay：生活に浸透している
イギリスの無類の多様性が生活の中に浸透している。
自由主義者たちはこの国が寛容でなくなってしまうことを恐れている。しかしながらこの将来は明るい。
LIBERAL internationalists in Britain have plenty of reasons to despair over the vote to leave the European Union. The economy will surely weaken, whether it dips into recession or just grows more slowly over the next few years. The government will be so preoccupied with divorcing the EU that it will have little energy left for, say, reforming criminal justice or building new airport runways. Neither the government nor the Labour Party is led by a liberal. But what really offends liberals—particularly in London—is the thought that Britain is bound to become less tolerant, less international, less diverse and as a result less interesting. In this respect the worriers are wrong.
despair：失望する
preoccupied：心を奪われて
offend：の気分を害する
bound：する義務がある
The map below, produced by the Centre for Cities at the London School of Economics, shows both why liberals are anxious and why they need not worry so much. As a magnet for immigrants, London has no rival in Europe. Not only does it contain many more foreigners than any other city (which partly just reflects London’s size), it also has proportionately more immigrants than almost anywhere else. Next to London, famously cosmopolitan cities like Paris and Berlin are actually rather homogeneous. London’s only competitors in the diversity stakes are smallish cities like Lausanne in Switzerland. And many of Switzerland’s immigrants are from neighbouring countries, especially Germany. London’s come from all over the place.
magnet：惹きつける場所
proportionately：比例して
homogeneous：同質的
stakes：競争
If national diversity is the goal, Britain’s capital has an enormous head start. And it is unlikely that even Mrs May, who detests mass immigration, could do much to hobble it. True, some French and Swiss bankers will probably push off when the EU moves to undermine London’s financial services (as it surely will). So will some other workers in footloose businesses that rely on skilled immigrants: don’t expect London to remain a fintech hub, for example. That is a shame. But these people are a tiny sliver of London’s immigrant population. Almost all the others will stay put.
head start：有利なスタート・幸先の良いスタート
detest：ひどく嫌う
hobble：故意に妨害する
push off：あっちへ行け
undermine：密かに傷つける
footloose：自由な
sliver：ガラスの欠片
stay put：動かずにじっとしている
They will remain partly because they have British children. In 2014, 27% of babies born in England and Wales had immigrant mothers, up from just 12% in 1990. Polish women had more babies than any other immigrant group: they accounted for 3.2% of all births. Pakistanis were second, followed by Indians, Bangladeshis and Nigerians. Many other babies who were born to British women had an immigrant father. Soon these babies will be in school and their parents will be pinned to Britain.
金曜日。今日はこれまで。ロンドンはヨーロッパの中でも最も多様性のある都市だ。メイ首相は移民を嫌っているが、移民のせいで、イギルスの繁栄があるはずだと説いている。この移民が最大のEU離脱の原因だったわけだが、それを前向きに解決しようとエコノミストは奮闘している。
昨日は大学の同期の仲間と会食をすることができた。愚妻も同席した。本日は早稲田で、白木先生の会合がある。久しぶりの出席だ。来週、経済同友会で講演させていただけるので、その原稿を書かないといけない。ではまた明日。
Liberals fear their country will become a less tolerant place. But the future is bright
Jul 18th 2016 | Britain
unparalleled：無比の
diversity：多様性
here to stay：生活に浸透している
イギリスの無類の多様性が生活の中に浸透している。
自由主義者たちはこの国が寛容でなくなってしまうことを恐れている。しかしながらこの将来は明るい。
LIBERAL internationalists in Britain have plenty of reasons to despair over the vote to leave the European Union. The economy will surely weaken, whether it dips into recession or just grows more slowly over the next few years. The government will be so preoccupied with divorcing the EU that it will have little energy left for, say, reforming criminal justice or building new airport runways. Neither the government nor the Labour Party is led by a liberal. But what really offends liberals—particularly in London—is the thought that Britain is bound to become less tolerant, less international, less diverse and as a result less interesting. In this respect the worriers are wrong.
despair：失望する
preoccupied：心を奪われて
offend：の気分を害する
bound：する義務がある
The map below, produced by the Centre for Cities at the London School of Economics, shows both why liberals are anxious and why they need not worry so much. As a magnet for immigrants, London has no rival in Europe. Not only does it contain many more foreigners than any other city (which partly just reflects London’s size), it also has proportionately more immigrants than almost anywhere else. Next to London, famously cosmopolitan cities like Paris and Berlin are actually rather homogeneous. London’s only competitors in the diversity stakes are smallish cities like Lausanne in Switzerland. And many of Switzerland’s immigrants are from neighbouring countries, especially Germany. London’s come from all over the place.
magnet：惹きつける場所
proportionately：比例して
homogeneous：同質的
stakes：競争
If national diversity is the goal, Britain’s capital has an enormous head start. And it is unlikely that even Mrs May, who detests mass immigration, could do much to hobble it. True, some French and Swiss bankers will probably push off when the EU moves to undermine London’s financial services (as it surely will). So will some other workers in footloose businesses that rely on skilled immigrants: don’t expect London to remain a fintech hub, for example. That is a shame. But these people are a tiny sliver of London’s immigrant population. Almost all the others will stay put.
head start：有利なスタート・幸先の良いスタート
detest：ひどく嫌う
hobble：故意に妨害する
push off：あっちへ行け
undermine：密かに傷つける
footloose：自由な
sliver：ガラスの欠片
stay put：動かずにじっとしている
They will remain partly because they have British children. In 2014, 27% of babies born in England and Wales had immigrant mothers, up from just 12% in 1990. Polish women had more babies than any other immigrant group: they accounted for 3.2% of all births. Pakistanis were second, followed by Indians, Bangladeshis and Nigerians. Many other babies who were born to British women had an immigrant father. Soon these babies will be in school and their parents will be pinned to Britain.
金曜日。今日はこれまで。ロンドンはヨーロッパの中でも最も多様性のある都市だ。メイ首相は移民を嫌っているが、移民のせいで、イギルスの繁栄があるはずだと説いている。この移民が最大のEU離脱の原因だったわけだが、それを前向きに解決しようとエコノミストは奮闘している。
昨日は大学の同期の仲間と会食をすることができた。愚妻も同席した。本日は早稲田で、白木先生の会合がある。久しぶりの出席だ。来週、経済同友会で講演させていただけるので、その原稿を書かないといけない。ではまた明日。
2016年07月21日
怒りの政治 Brexitの運動の勝利は自由な国際秩序への警告である。(3)
Back to the future
Now that history has stormed back with a vengeance, liberalism needs to fight its ground all over again. Part of the task is to find the language to make a principled, enlightened case and to take on people like Ms Le Pen and Mr Trump. The flow of goods, ideas, capital and people is essential for prosperity. The power of a hectoring, bullying, discriminatory state is a threat to human happiness. The virtues of tolerance and compromise are conditions for people to realise their full potential.
with a vengeance：激しく
stand one's ground： 意思を貫く
hectoring：脅す
bullying：いじめる
discriminatory：差別扱いをする
Just as important is the need for policies to ensure the diffusion of prosperity. The argument for helping those mired in deprivation is strong. But a culture of compensation turns angry people into resentful objects of state charity. Hence, liberals also need to restore social mobility and ensure that economic growth translates into rising wages. That means a relentless focus on dismantling privilege by battling special interests, exposing incumbent companies to competition and breaking down restrictive practices. Most of all, the West needs an education system that works for everyone, of whatever social background and whatever age.
diffusion：拡散・普及
mired：ぬかるみ・窮地
deprivation：窮乏すること
compensation：補償
social mobility：社会的流動性・社会的地位
dismantling：解体する
incumbent：現在の
restrictive practice：制限的な慣行
The fight for liberalism is at its most fraught with immigration. Given that most governments manage who comes to work and live in their country, the EU’s total freedom of movement is an anomaly. Just as global trade rules allow countries to counter surges of goods, so there is a case for rules to cope with surges in people. But it would be illiberal and self-defeating to give in to the idea that immigration is merely something to tolerate. Sooner than curb numbers, governments should first invest in schools, hospitals and housing. In Britain new migrants from the EU contribute more to the exchequer than they take out. Without them, industries such as care homes and the building trade would be short of labour. Without their ideas and their energy, Britain would be much the poorer.
fraught：はらんだ
anomaly：異常・異例
self-defeating：自滅的な
exchequer：資産・資力
Liberalism has been challenged before. At the end of the 19th century, liberals embraced a broader role for the state, realising that political and economic freedoms are diminished if basic human needs are unmet. In the 1970s liberals concluded that the embrace of the state had become smothering and oppressive. That rekindled an interest in markets.
smothering：抑制する
oppressive：圧制的な
rekindled：再び燃え立たせる
When Margaret Thatcher was prime minister, amid the triumph of Soviet collapse, an aide slipped Mr Fukuyama’s essay on history into her papers. The next morning she declared herself unimpressed. Never take history for granted, she said. Never let up. For liberals today that must be the rallying cry.
unimpressed：感動しない
Never let up：決してやめない
rallying：集まる
木曜日。今日はこれまで。自由主義は放棄するべきではない。経済の繁栄とともに、賃金も上昇するべきだ。移民も物と同様に自由に移動するべきだ。そうしたことが必要だとエコノミストは言っている。メイ首相は今後、こうしたことを踏まえていくのだろうか。
昨日はいつもの昼食会があって楽しく過ごした。夜は海野塾があり、これも楽しかった。今夜は大学の仲間と会食がある。これも楽しみだ。ではまた明日。
Now that history has stormed back with a vengeance, liberalism needs to fight its ground all over again. Part of the task is to find the language to make a principled, enlightened case and to take on people like Ms Le Pen and Mr Trump. The flow of goods, ideas, capital and people is essential for prosperity. The power of a hectoring, bullying, discriminatory state is a threat to human happiness. The virtues of tolerance and compromise are conditions for people to realise their full potential.
with a vengeance：激しく
stand one's ground： 意思を貫く
hectoring：脅す
bullying：いじめる
discriminatory：差別扱いをする
Just as important is the need for policies to ensure the diffusion of prosperity. The argument for helping those mired in deprivation is strong. But a culture of compensation turns angry people into resentful objects of state charity. Hence, liberals also need to restore social mobility and ensure that economic growth translates into rising wages. That means a relentless focus on dismantling privilege by battling special interests, exposing incumbent companies to competition and breaking down restrictive practices. Most of all, the West needs an education system that works for everyone, of whatever social background and whatever age.
diffusion：拡散・普及
mired：ぬかるみ・窮地
deprivation：窮乏すること
compensation：補償
social mobility：社会的流動性・社会的地位
dismantling：解体する
incumbent：現在の
restrictive practice：制限的な慣行
The fight for liberalism is at its most fraught with immigration. Given that most governments manage who comes to work and live in their country, the EU’s total freedom of movement is an anomaly. Just as global trade rules allow countries to counter surges of goods, so there is a case for rules to cope with surges in people. But it would be illiberal and self-defeating to give in to the idea that immigration is merely something to tolerate. Sooner than curb numbers, governments should first invest in schools, hospitals and housing. In Britain new migrants from the EU contribute more to the exchequer than they take out. Without them, industries such as care homes and the building trade would be short of labour. Without their ideas and their energy, Britain would be much the poorer.
fraught：はらんだ
anomaly：異常・異例
self-defeating：自滅的な
exchequer：資産・資力
Liberalism has been challenged before. At the end of the 19th century, liberals embraced a broader role for the state, realising that political and economic freedoms are diminished if basic human needs are unmet. In the 1970s liberals concluded that the embrace of the state had become smothering and oppressive. That rekindled an interest in markets.
smothering：抑制する
oppressive：圧制的な
rekindled：再び燃え立たせる
When Margaret Thatcher was prime minister, amid the triumph of Soviet collapse, an aide slipped Mr Fukuyama’s essay on history into her papers. The next morning she declared herself unimpressed. Never take history for granted, she said. Never let up. For liberals today that must be the rallying cry.
unimpressed：感動しない
Never let up：決してやめない
rallying：集まる
木曜日。今日はこれまで。自由主義は放棄するべきではない。経済の繁栄とともに、賃金も上昇するべきだ。移民も物と同様に自由に移動するべきだ。そうしたことが必要だとエコノミストは言っている。メイ首相は今後、こうしたことを踏まえていくのだろうか。
昨日はいつもの昼食会があって楽しく過ごした。夜は海野塾があり、これも楽しかった。今夜は大学の仲間と会食がある。これも楽しみだ。ではまた明日。
2016年07月20日
怒りの政治 Brexitの運動の勝利は自由な国際秩序への警告である。(2)
Across Western democracies, from the America of Donald Trump to the France of Marine Le Pen, large numbers of people are enraged. If they cannot find a voice within the mainstream, they will make themselves heard from without. Unless they believe that the global order works to their benefit, Brexit risks becoming just the start of an unravelling of globalisation and the prosperity it has created.
enraged：ひどく怒った
voice within the mainstream：主流派内の声
from without：外部から
unravelling：ダメにする
The rest of history
Today’s crisis in liberalism—in the free-market, British sense—was born in 1989, out of the ashes of the Soviet Union. At the time the thinker Francis Fukuyama declared “the end of history”, the moment when no ideology was left to challenge democracy, markets and global co-operation as a way of organising society. It was liberalism’s greatest triumph, but it also engendered a narrow, technocratic politics obsessed by process. In the ensuing quarter-century the majority has prospered, but plenty of voters feel as if they have been left behind.
the rest is history：その後はご存知の通り
engendered：ひき起こす
obsessed：取り憑かれている
ensuing：続いて起こる
Their anger is justified. Proponents of globalisation, including this newspaper, must acknowledge that technocrats have made mistakes and ordinary people paid the price. The move to a flawed European currency, a technocratic scheme par excellence, led to stagnation and unemployment and is driving Europe apart. Elaborate financial instruments bamboozled regulators, crashed the world economy and ended up with taxpayer-funded bail-outs of banks, and later on, budget cuts.
Proponent：支持者
Elaborate：手の込んだ・複雑な
bamboozled：騙す
Even when globalisation has been hugely beneficial, policymakers have not done enough to help the losers. Trade with China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and brought immense gains for Western consumers. But many factory workers who have lost their jobs have been unable to find a decently paid replacement.
decently：まともに・きちんと
Rather than spread the benefits of globalisation, politicians have focused elsewhere. The left moved on to arguments about culture—race, greenery, human rights and sexual politics. The right preached meritocratic self-advancement, but failed to win everyone the chance to partake in it. Proud industrial communities that look to family and nation suffered alienation and decay. Mendacious campaigning mirrored by partisan media amplified the sense of betrayal.
greenery：緑の草木
self-advancement：自己開発
partake：参加する
alienation：疎外感
decay：腐敗・荒廃
Mendacious：偽りの
partisan ：党に盲目的に支持している
Less obviously, the intellectual underpinnings of liberalism have been neglected. When Mr Trump called for protectionism this week, urging Americans to “take back control” (see article), he was both parroting the Brexiteers and exploiting how almost no politician has been willing to make the full-throated case for trade liberalisation as a boost to prosperity rather than a cost or a concession. Liberalism depends on a belief in progress but, for many voters, progress is what happens to other people. While American GDP per person grew by 14% in 2001-15, median wages grew by only 2%. Liberals believe in the benefits of pooling sovereignty for the common good. But, as Brexit shows, when people feel they do not control their lives or share in the fruits of globalisation, they strike out. The distant, baffling, overbearing EU makes an irresistible target.
underpinning：基盤・根拠
parroting：おうむ返しに言う・真似して言う
full-throated：声高の・明白な
concession：譲歩・軽減
strike out：三振する
distant：よそよそしい
baffling：不可解な・当惑する
overbearing：横柄な・高圧的な
irresistible：抑えがたい
水曜日。今日はこれまで。さすがにエコノミストだ。Brexitを今までは批判だけしてきたが、今回は冷静に何故そうなったのかを読んでいる。liberalism 自由主義が勝利したのだが、グローバリゼーションに一般大衆は取り残されてしまった。アメリカのトランプもそうしたことを言っていて、この１５年間でGDPが１４％も伸びたのだが、給与は２％しか上がっていない。そうした大衆の鬱積がこの溜まった怒りをEUにぶつけたのだろうと言っている。老子は言っている。「天の道はあまりあるを損じて、而して足らざるを補う。人の道は則ち然らず。足らざるを損じて、以って余りあるに奉ず。」その通りですね。２５００年経っても政治は変わらない。富の配分の不平等です。
昨日はお助け隊の片町さん、建部さんを訪問。そのあとは村松のお墓をお参り。そして３時から供養の宴会。６時で終了。今日はいつもの会食。夜は海野塾。今朝は３時から起きていて、少しこれから横になります。１日が長いので。ではまた明日。
enraged：ひどく怒った
voice within the mainstream：主流派内の声
from without：外部から
unravelling：ダメにする
The rest of history
Today’s crisis in liberalism—in the free-market, British sense—was born in 1989, out of the ashes of the Soviet Union. At the time the thinker Francis Fukuyama declared “the end of history”, the moment when no ideology was left to challenge democracy, markets and global co-operation as a way of organising society. It was liberalism’s greatest triumph, but it also engendered a narrow, technocratic politics obsessed by process. In the ensuing quarter-century the majority has prospered, but plenty of voters feel as if they have been left behind.
the rest is history：その後はご存知の通り
engendered：ひき起こす
obsessed：取り憑かれている
ensuing：続いて起こる
Their anger is justified. Proponents of globalisation, including this newspaper, must acknowledge that technocrats have made mistakes and ordinary people paid the price. The move to a flawed European currency, a technocratic scheme par excellence, led to stagnation and unemployment and is driving Europe apart. Elaborate financial instruments bamboozled regulators, crashed the world economy and ended up with taxpayer-funded bail-outs of banks, and later on, budget cuts.
Proponent：支持者
Elaborate：手の込んだ・複雑な
bamboozled：騙す
Even when globalisation has been hugely beneficial, policymakers have not done enough to help the losers. Trade with China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and brought immense gains for Western consumers. But many factory workers who have lost their jobs have been unable to find a decently paid replacement.
decently：まともに・きちんと
Rather than spread the benefits of globalisation, politicians have focused elsewhere. The left moved on to arguments about culture—race, greenery, human rights and sexual politics. The right preached meritocratic self-advancement, but failed to win everyone the chance to partake in it. Proud industrial communities that look to family and nation suffered alienation and decay. Mendacious campaigning mirrored by partisan media amplified the sense of betrayal.
greenery：緑の草木
self-advancement：自己開発
partake：参加する
alienation：疎外感
decay：腐敗・荒廃
Mendacious：偽りの
partisan ：党に盲目的に支持している
Less obviously, the intellectual underpinnings of liberalism have been neglected. When Mr Trump called for protectionism this week, urging Americans to “take back control” (see article), he was both parroting the Brexiteers and exploiting how almost no politician has been willing to make the full-throated case for trade liberalisation as a boost to prosperity rather than a cost or a concession. Liberalism depends on a belief in progress but, for many voters, progress is what happens to other people. While American GDP per person grew by 14% in 2001-15, median wages grew by only 2%. Liberals believe in the benefits of pooling sovereignty for the common good. But, as Brexit shows, when people feel they do not control their lives or share in the fruits of globalisation, they strike out. The distant, baffling, overbearing EU makes an irresistible target.
underpinning：基盤・根拠
parroting：おうむ返しに言う・真似して言う
full-throated：声高の・明白な
concession：譲歩・軽減
strike out：三振する
distant：よそよそしい
baffling：不可解な・当惑する
overbearing：横柄な・高圧的な
irresistible：抑えがたい
水曜日。今日はこれまで。さすがにエコノミストだ。Brexitを今までは批判だけしてきたが、今回は冷静に何故そうなったのかを読んでいる。liberalism 自由主義が勝利したのだが、グローバリゼーションに一般大衆は取り残されてしまった。アメリカのトランプもそうしたことを言っていて、この１５年間でGDPが１４％も伸びたのだが、給与は２％しか上がっていない。そうした大衆の鬱積がこの溜まった怒りをEUにぶつけたのだろうと言っている。老子は言っている。「天の道はあまりあるを損じて、而して足らざるを補う。人の道は則ち然らず。足らざるを損じて、以って余りあるに奉ず。」その通りですね。２５００年経っても政治は変わらない。富の配分の不平等です。
昨日はお助け隊の片町さん、建部さんを訪問。そのあとは村松のお墓をお参り。そして３時から供養の宴会。６時で終了。今日はいつもの会食。夜は海野塾。今朝は３時から起きていて、少しこれから横になります。１日が長いので。ではまた明日。
