トルコのメディアと役人ですらアメリカがこの陰謀に加担していることを非難している。(2) イギリス議会は核兵器を廃止するかどうかを審議しようとその準備に入った。

From the American perspective, Turkey has never been fully committed to the war against Islamist groups in Syria. For years, the Americans have pressed Turkey to do more to stop jihadist fighters slipping in and out of Syria to join up with (or carry out missions for) IS and other Islamist groups. It is in Turkey’s own interest to do so. IS has carried out several big terror attacks inside Turkey, including the suicide-bombing in June of Istanbul’s Ataturk airport. Few doubt it will strike again. 

Ash Carter, America’s defence secretary, makes no secret of his distaste for Turkey’s president. Calls to replace Incirlik with a base elsewhere in the region are growing louder in America’s Congress. Meanwhile, Mr Gulen may threaten Turkish stability, but nothing like as seriously as the jihadists both inside and outside the country. Turkey needs friendship with America more than ever. Instead, in a paroxysm of post-coup paranoia, Mr Erdogan is putting the entire alliance at risk. 

makes no secret of :を隠さない


The nuclear option
Parliament prepares to deliberate on whether to ban the bomb
Jul 16th 2016 | From the print edition



No substitute
NINE countries are believed to have nuclear weapons. On July 18th Britain will decide whether it wants to remain in that club, when its MPs debate whether to renew the country’s Trident nuclear deterrent. Theresa May, the new prime minister, has said it would be “sheer madness” to give it up, and the vote is expected to pass easily. Perhaps 150 of Labour’s 230 MPs will vote in favour of the plan, rebelling against their leader, Jeremy Corbyn. 

No substitute:代替はない
Trident: トライデント◆米国の潜水艦発射ICBM。Polaris、Poseidonの後継ミサイル。
nuclear deterrent:核抑止力
sheer madness:全くの気違い沙汰

The House of Commons approved in principle the retention of a nuclear deterrent in 2007. A review in 2013 reaffirmed that “like-for-like” replacement of the four submarines that carry the missiles represented the best and most cost-effective way to do it. Parliament will now decide whether to approve the spending of £31 billion ($41 billion) over 20 years to replace the four Vanguard-class subs, which will wear out within a decade. 

The House of Commons:下院
like-for-like replacement:同等の交換
wear out:傷む

Trident’s detractors argue that a lot has changed since the programme was approved in 2007. For one thing money is tighter. Around one-quarter of defence spending on new equipment procurement will be on submarine and deterrent systems by 2021-22. There has also been a surge in support for independence in Scotland, where the submarines are based. It is unlikely that the government would choose to site the capability north of the border if the renewal process began again now, says William Walker of St Andrew’s University. The Scottish government opposes the plan; almost all of the 59 Scottish MPs at Westminster are expected to vote against it (though polls suggest that public opinion in Scotland is more mixed). If Scotland were to become independent—now more likely because of Brexit—Britain could well have to relocate its subs, at further expense. 


Critics also say Trident relies too much on a single naval platform (America has air, land and sea options), and that improved ballistic-missile defences and the future use of underwater drones and cyber warfare could threaten the subs’ security. Yet land-based ballistic missiles are vulnerable to attack, and arming aircraft with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles permanently aloft carries a significant danger of nuclear accident and is much more expensive. The cut-price option of building three submarines rather than four would be a false economy, undermining the principle of “continuous at-sea deterrence”. 


The vote comes at a time when few in Britain are minded to dial down the country’s defence capabilities. Mrs May has cited Russia’s renewed belligerence as one justification for updating Trident. And Brexit has left the country, and its allies, shaken. Britain’s partners would be sensitive to signs of more isolationism, says Malcolm Chalmers of RUSI, a think-tank. Britain has the largest defence budget in Europe; maintaining nuclear capabilities shows that it is still committed to NATO. “Our allies would not understand if we chose this moment to give up our nuclear weapons,” Mr Chalmers says. 

dial down:トーンダウンする

The vote is also linked to Britain’s image of itself. Last year a strategic review boosted defence spending, as part of an effort to restore Britain’s standing as a military power after years of cuts. Trident is part of that. Though it is expensive and imperfect, most MPs, and their constituents, believe it still helps to make Britain safe, and is a force for stability—something of which it has had precious little in recent weeks. 

precious little [few]: とても少ない (!本来は多いはずであることを暗示) .



swingby_blog at 06:23コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


クーデターの後トルコはアメリカに敵対している。 トルコのメディアと役人ですらアメリカがこの陰謀に加担していることを非難している。

After the coup, Turkey turns against America
Turkish media and even government officials accuse America of being in on the plot
Jul 18th 2016 | ISTANBUL | Europe 


SINCE the 1960s, whenever Turkey’s meddlesome generals have seized power, Turks have accused America of being responsible. After the botched coup attempt on July 15th by a cabal of mid-ranking generals and junior officers, the old reflex appeared again. Turkey’s labour minister, Suleyman Soylu, declared that America was behind the attempt to overthrow the country’s Islamist president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (He vaguely cited the “activities” of unnamed American magazines as proof.) Pro-government media outlets teemed with conspiracy theories. In a column in Yeni Safak, a daily newspaper, Aydin Unal, an MP from Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development party (AK), suggested that American army officers took part in the fighting. In previous decades such rants could be shrugged off. But this time they are part of an increasingly severe diplomatic crisis. 

shrugged off:無視する

The reaction from John Kerry, America’s secretary of state, was uncharacteristically stiff. In a phone call to his Turkish opposite number, Mevlut Cavusoglu, on July 16th Mr Kerry said insinuations that America had played any role in the coup were “utterly false and harmful to our bilateral relations”. Speaking to an American news channel the following day, Mr Kerry warned Mr Erdogan against using the coup as an excuse to clamp down on his opponents. A wide-ranging purge, Mr Kerry said, “would be a great challenge to his relationship to Europe, to NATO and to all of us”. 


AK is not heeding his advice. More than 7,000 people have been detained and thousands of judges and other bureaucrats purged. At least 11 online news portals associated with the opposition have been shut down. But the biggest source of friction is the presence in America of Fethullah Gulen, a cleric who leads a secretive Muslim sect, and whom the Turkish government accuses of masterminding the failed putsch. 


Since 1999 Mr Gulen has been living in self-imposed exile in rural Pennsylvania. For years, Mr Erdogan has accused the imam, a former ally in his battle to declaw the army, of seeking to topple his government. The Turks demand that America hand him over. Yet Turkey has not formally requested Mr Gulen’s extradition; the file, over 1,000 pages long, has yet to be fully translated into English. Western diplomats reckon it will be padded with outlandish, conspiratorial claims, and that federal prosecutors will throw it out. Mr Erdogan would probably ramp up his anti-American rhetoric in response. Turkey’s prime minister, Binali Yildirim, has already warned that requiring “evidence” before booting out Mr Gulen would call America’s friendship with Turkey into doubt. 

hand him over:彼を引き渡す
ramp up:増える・増やす
booting out:追い出す

That would be nothing new. Relations with America have seesawed ever since 1952, when Turkey became NATO’s first mainly Muslim member. Back then, Turkey was prized as an ally against the Soviet Union. Today it is seen as a buffer between Europe and the Middle East, with its homicidal jihadists and millions of Syrian refugees. And continued access to Turkey’s Incirlik air-base is vital to the American-led war effort against Islamic State (IS). Some Western officials worry that Turkey will seal off the base if America refuses to hand over Mr Gulen. 


Turkey’s relations with America were already strained by America’s support for the Syrian Kurdish militia groups known as the People’s Protection Units (YPG). The YPG are widely seen as the most effective force fighting IS in Syria, but they are closely linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an outlawed guerrilla movement that has been fighting the Turkish state for decades in the name of Kurdish autonomy, and has carried out numerous terrorist attacks. Turkey views the YPG as terrorists too, and has repeatedly asked America to ditch them, only to be snubbed each time. 



さて、昨日は海野塾があった。Western style managementはなんどやっても楽しくて終わらない。もう3回もやったので、来週はテーマを変えることにした。今朝はこれから来週の海野塾の資料のレビューがある。いつもこの資料を作成する時には関連する資料を数多く読むようにしている。3日間はかけている。寸暇を惜しんで、本も書きたいので、今日はそれに2時間は割こうと思っている。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 06:41コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


イギリスの無類の多様性が生活の中に浸透している。 自由主義者たちはこの国が寛容でなくなってしまうことを恐れている。しかしながらこの将来は明るい。(2)

Even if immigration were suddenly to stop, Britain would become more diverse. Immigrants have slightly more babies—their fertility rate in England and Wales is 2.1, compared with 1.8 for the natives. And diversity will spread. Immigrants tend to arrive in big cities and gradually move out, seeking bigger houses that they can afford. Between 2001 and 2011 (the last two census years) the proportion of black Africans in England and Wales who lived in London fell from 80% to 58%—a staggering exodus. Provincial towns such as Milton Keynes are rapidly becoming more racially mixed. 

census year:国勢調査の年

And although immigration will surely slow down—a consequence of economic weakness as much as government policy—it will not stop. No developed country can shut the door on all refugees, all foreign husbands and wives, and all skilled workers. Britain is highly unlikely even to keep out the unskilled. Though they have been largely forgotten, many foreign workers toiled in the fields of Lincolnshire and the food-processing factories of the Midlands even before Britain opened its doors to east Europeans in 2005. Some of those workers came in under a programme known as the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme, or SAWS. If Britain ends up leaving the European Economic Area and shutting down automatic free movement from the EU, farmers will lobby hard for a SAWS 2. They will undoubtedly get their way. 


As immigrants and their children multiply and disperse, the Britons who most dislike immigration will disappear. Old Britons voted to leave the EU in far greater numbers than young ones; the uneducated were much keener on exit than the educated. Britain is growing older, but this particular cohort of thinly educated old people (call it the UKIP cohort) is ageing out of the population. It will be replaced by successive cohorts that are more ethnically diverse and highly educated. In the early 1960s only 15% of school children got at least five good O-levels; today more than two-thirds get at least five good GCSEs and almost half of young people go to university. 

O level: ⦅英⦆O[普通]級(の試験)(ordinary level)
GCSE: General Certificate of Secondary Education((英国の)中等教育一般証明書(試験))

So Britain will gradually change. While you wait for that to happen, though, remember that it is not at present a racist or intolerant country. Britons (including old, white, working-class Britons) might dislike immigration, but they tend also to dislike racism and discrimination. Eurobarometer, which obsessively polls Europeans on their prejudices, consistently finds that Britons are unusually relaxed about the idea of having a non-white political leader or non-white co-workers. The most recent poll, in 2015, found that only Swedes were as calm as Britons at the prospect of one of their children dating a Muslim. 


The vote to leave the EU was not a nativist revolution, as nativists fervently hope and liberals fear. It was more a desperate lashing out against the inevitable transformation of British society—the past kicking against the future. The kick hurt a lot. But the fight only ends one way. 

lashing out :痛烈に非難する
can only end one way: 行き着くところは一つだ、先が見えている◆悪い結末を暗示することが多い。



swingby_blog at 08:11コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


イギリスの無類の多様性が生活の中に浸透している。 自由主義者たちはこの国が寛容でなくなってしまうことを恐れている。しかしながらこの将来は明るい。

Britain’s unparalleled diversity is here to stay
Liberals fear their country will become a less tolerant place. But the future is bright
Jul 18th 2016 | Britain

here to stay:生活に浸透している


LIBERAL internationalists in Britain have plenty of reasons to despair over the vote to leave the European Union. The economy will surely weaken, whether it dips into recession or just grows more slowly over the next few years. The government will be so preoccupied with divorcing the EU that it will have little energy left for, say, reforming criminal justice or building new airport runways. Neither the government nor the Labour Party is led by a liberal. But what really offends liberals—particularly in London—is the thought that Britain is bound to become less tolerant, less international, less diverse and as a result less interesting. In this respect the worriers are wrong. 


The map below, produced by the Centre for Cities at the London School of Economics, shows both why liberals are anxious and why they need not worry so much. As a magnet for immigrants, London has no rival in Europe. Not only does it contain many more foreigners than any other city (which partly just reflects London’s size), it also has proportionately more immigrants than almost anywhere else. Next to London, famously cosmopolitan cities like Paris and Berlin are actually rather homogeneous. London’s only competitors in the diversity stakes are smallish cities like Lausanne in Switzerland. And many of Switzerland’s immigrants are from neighbouring countries, especially Germany. London’s come from all over the place. 


If national diversity is the goal, Britain’s capital has an enormous head start. And it is unlikely that even Mrs May, who detests mass immigration, could do much to hobble it. True, some French and Swiss bankers will probably push off when the EU moves to undermine London’s financial services (as it surely will). So will some other workers in footloose businesses that rely on skilled immigrants: don’t expect London to remain a fintech hub, for example. That is a shame. But these people are a tiny sliver of London’s immigrant population. Almost all the others will stay put. 

head start:有利なスタート・幸先の良いスタート
push off:あっちへ行け
stay put:動かずにじっとしている

They will remain partly because they have British children. In 2014, 27% of babies born in England and Wales had immigrant mothers, up from just 12% in 1990. Polish women had more babies than any other immigrant group: they accounted for 3.2% of all births. Pakistanis were second, followed by Indians, Bangladeshis and Nigerians. Many other babies who were born to British women had an immigrant father. Soon these babies will be in school and their parents will be pinned to Britain. 



swingby_blog at 06:35コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


怒りの政治 Brexitの運動の勝利は自由な国際秩序への警告である。(3)

Back to the future
Now that history has stormed back with a vengeance, liberalism needs to fight its ground all over again. Part of the task is to find the language to make a principled, enlightened case and to take on people like Ms Le Pen and Mr Trump. The flow of goods, ideas, capital and people is essential for prosperity. The power of a hectoring, bullying, discriminatory state is a threat to human happiness. The virtues of tolerance and compromise are conditions for people to realise their full potential.

with a vengeance:激しく
stand one's ground: 意思を貫く

Just as important is the need for policies to ensure the diffusion of prosperity. The argument for helping those mired in deprivation is strong. But a culture of compensation turns angry people into resentful objects of state charity. Hence, liberals also need to restore social mobility and ensure that economic growth translates into rising wages. That means a relentless focus on dismantling privilege by battling special interests, exposing incumbent companies to competition and breaking down restrictive practices. Most of all, the West needs an education system that works for everyone, of whatever social background and whatever age.

social mobility:社会的流動性・社会的地位
restrictive practice:制限的な慣行

The fight for liberalism is at its most fraught with immigration. Given that most governments manage who comes to work and live in their country, the EU’s total freedom of movement is an anomaly. Just as global trade rules allow countries to counter surges of goods, so there is a case for rules to cope with surges in people. But it would be illiberal and self-defeating to give in to the idea that immigration is merely something to tolerate. Sooner than curb numbers, governments should first invest in schools, hospitals and housing. In Britain new migrants from the EU contribute more to the exchequer than they take out. Without them, industries such as care homes and the building trade would be short of labour. Without their ideas and their energy, Britain would be much the poorer.


Liberalism has been challenged before. At the end of the 19th century, liberals embraced a broader role for the state, realising that political and economic freedoms are diminished if basic human needs are unmet. In the 1970s liberals concluded that the embrace of the state had become smothering and oppressive. That rekindled an interest in markets.


When Margaret Thatcher was prime minister, amid the triumph of Soviet collapse, an aide slipped Mr Fukuyama’s essay on history into her papers. The next morning she declared herself unimpressed. Never take history for granted, she said. Never let up. For liberals today that must be the rallying cry.

Never let up:決してやめない



swingby_blog at 09:23コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


怒りの政治 Brexitの運動の勝利は自由な国際秩序への警告である。(2)

Across Western democracies, from the America of Donald Trump to the France of Marine Le Pen, large numbers of people are enraged. If they cannot find a voice within the mainstream, they will make themselves heard from without. Unless they believe that the global order works to their benefit, Brexit risks becoming just the start of an unravelling of globalisation and the prosperity it has created. 

voice within the mainstream:主流派内の声
from without:外部から

The rest of history
Today’s crisis in liberalism—in the free-market, British sense—was born in 1989, out of the ashes of the Soviet Union. At the time the thinker Francis Fukuyama declared “the end of history”, the moment when no ideology was left to challenge democracy, markets and global co-operation as a way of organising society. It was liberalism’s greatest triumph, but it also engendered a narrow, technocratic politics obsessed by process. In the ensuing quarter-century the majority has prospered, but plenty of voters feel as if they have been left behind. 

the rest is history:その後はご存知の通り

Their anger is justified. Proponents of globalisation, including this newspaper, must acknowledge that technocrats have made mistakes and ordinary people paid the price. The move to a flawed European currency, a technocratic scheme par excellence, led to stagnation and unemployment and is driving Europe apart. Elaborate financial instruments bamboozled regulators, crashed the world economy and ended up with taxpayer-funded bail-outs of banks, and later on, budget cuts. 


Even when globalisation has been hugely beneficial, policymakers have not done enough to help the losers. Trade with China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and brought immense gains for Western consumers. But many factory workers who have lost their jobs have been unable to find a decently paid replacement. 


Rather than spread the benefits of globalisation, politicians have focused elsewhere. The left moved on to arguments about culture—race, greenery, human rights and sexual politics. The right preached meritocratic self-advancement, but failed to win everyone the chance to partake in it. Proud industrial communities that look to family and nation suffered alienation and decay. Mendacious campaigning mirrored by partisan media amplified the sense of betrayal. 

partisan :党に盲目的に支持している

Less obviously, the intellectual underpinnings of liberalism have been neglected. When Mr Trump called for protectionism this week, urging Americans to “take back control” (see article), he was both parroting the Brexiteers and exploiting how almost no politician has been willing to make the full-throated case for trade liberalisation as a boost to prosperity rather than a cost or a concession. Liberalism depends on a belief in progress but, for many voters, progress is what happens to other people. While American GDP per person grew by 14% in 2001-15, median wages grew by only 2%. Liberals believe in the benefits of pooling sovereignty for the common good. But, as Brexit shows, when people feel they do not control their lives or share in the fruits of globalisation, they strike out. The distant, baffling, overbearing EU makes an irresistible target. 

strike out:三振する

水曜日。今日はこれまで。さすがにエコノミストだ。Brexitを今までは批判だけしてきたが、今回は冷静に何故そうなったのかを読んでいる。liberalism 自由主義が勝利したのだが、グローバリゼーションに一般大衆は取り残されてしまった。アメリカのトランプもそうしたことを言っていて、この15年間でGDPが14%も伸びたのだが、給与は2%しか上がっていない。そうした大衆の鬱積がこの溜まった怒りをEUにぶつけたのだろうと言っている。老子は言っている。「天の道はあまりあるを損じて、而して足らざるを補う。人の道は則ち然らず。足らざるを損じて、以って余りあるに奉ず。」その通りですね。2500年経っても政治は変わらない。富の配分の不平等です。


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