世界で最も住みやすい都市(2) プーチンの個人的な動向 クレムリンのオフィスがごちゃごちゃになっているのは何かがあるからだが、それがなんだか誰にもわからない。

Those that score best tend to be mid-sized cities in wealthier countries. Melbourne tops the list for the sixth year in a row (see chart, right), and six of the top ten cities are in Australia or Canada. But Sydney, Australia’s largest city, drops out of the top ten due to fears over terrorism. 

in a row:連続して

Damascus is the lowest-ranked city with a rating of just 30.2 out of 100, scoring poorly in all categories (understandably, due to Syria’s ruinous civil war). Kiev, the only European city in the bottom ten, performs better for health care and education but has a low stability score due to Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia. 


Increased instability over the past year has caused a drop in the score of nearly a fifth of the 140 cities surveyed (see chart, below). Ten of these cities are in western Europe, notably Paris, which has suffered multiple terrorist attacks. Some American cities, including Atlanta, San Francisco and Chicago have also dropped down the rankings after spikes in civil unrest. 


Melbourne, Vienna, Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary 
Photo credits: Getty Images, Reuters, Alamy, Getty Images, Alamy


Putin’s personnel moves
Dancing in the dark
Desk shuffles in the Kremlin signal something, but no one knows what
Aug 20th 2016 | MOSCOW | From the print edition


THE Kremlin’s political nature resembles its physical structure: a walled fortress whose interior is invisible to those on the outside. On August 12th, when President Vladimir Putin sacked Sergei Ivanov, his powerful chief of staff, the Kremlin released only a cryptic video in which Mr Putin thanked Mr Ivanov for his 17 years of service. The move’s real meaning was left to speculation. This aura of mystery is not happenstance, but a guiding principle. “We have a system that believes it can do anything without any explanation,” says Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin advisor. “We have only a black box.” 

chief of staff:首席補佐官
guiding principle:従うべき原則、指針、方針

Mr Ivanov, like Mr Putin an ex-KGB man from St Petersburg, was seen as one of Russia’s most influential figures, perhaps second only to the president himself. The decision to replace him with the 44-year-old Anton Vaino fits a broader pattern of Mr Putin’s old comrades being pushed out in favour of younger loyalists. “Those who don’t fit Putin’s vision of the new aims are leaving,” says Aleksei Chesnakov, a former presidential administration official. However, he adds, “no one except the president knows what those new aims are.” 

The switch comes at a sensitive time. Parliamentary elections loom in mid-September and the Russian economy remains weak. Tensions with Ukraine have escalated over Russian allegations of an attempted terrorist attack in Crimea. Russia is also expanding its presence in the Middle East, launching bombing runs into Syria from Iranian bases this week. 


So, Kremlinologists wonder, does the shake-up signal that Mr Putin wants early presidential elections next year, as a means to renew his mandate and launch needed economic reforms? Or does he instead plan to step down as president in 2018? Is Dmitry Medvedev, Mr Putin’s successor in 2008, destined to return once more? Or is Mr Putin seeking a new heir? “The bottom line is we don’t know much,” says Mark Galeotti, a veteran Russia expert. 


水曜日。今日はこれまで。PutinがSergei Ivanov首席補佐官を突然解雇したが、その背後には何かありそうだという話。プーチン独特の行動にこの記事はいろいろ憶測をしている。ロシアの動きは彼に動きと同期しているので、分かりやすい。


swingby_blog at 10:02コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


これまでのものと変わったからといって正しくない クリントンはトランプの選挙運動が偏見と誇大妄想に基づいていると言っている。(2) 世界で最も住みやすい都市

By way of prebuttal, Mr Trump gave a speech in Manchester, New Hampshire that ended a moment before Mrs Clinton’s, in which he said she was effectively calling Trump supporters racists. But wanting strong borders “doesn’t make you a racist, that makes you smart,” he assured the crowd (which was, truth be told, overwhelmingly white). Warming to his theme, he told his crowd that allowing immigrants to take jobs hurt black as well as white Americans, making it a “civil rights issue”. 

By way of:の手段として・のつもりで
truth be told:実を言うと

In theory, the Democratic and Republican nominees thus spent this week having an argument about which policies are best for a multicultural America. Mr Trump has been taking big risks on this front, softening his hardline, if detail-free plans to deport 11m undocumented migrants now in America without papers—an operation that he once said would require the mustering of a federal deportation force. In speeches and interviews Mr Trump has recanted and now says that he might focus deportation efforts on gang leaders and serious criminals, allowing migrants who have avoided trouble with the law a path to earn legal status after paying back taxes. Mr Trump seems unabashed that this new plan amounts to almost exactly the same immigration policy as the one advanced by his former Republican rival for the nomination, Jeb Bush, calculating that his die-hard supporters will be mollified by his continued (nonsensical) promises to build a wall on the Mexican border and make Mexico pay for it. 

on this front:この最優先事項で
paying back:借金を返す

Mr Trump is not really competing for black and Hispanic votes with this new softer tone, for all that he claims that he will win 95% of black votes. Some polls have him on 1% of black votes, and that is a hole from which he cannot dig himself. This latest change of tone is about stemming his sliding poll numbers among voters whose support he cannot afford to lose: white Republicans who support mainstream conservatives like Mr Ryan, but would be appalled to think they were casting a ballot for racism this November. Notably, he is losing college-educated whites at the moment, though that voter block has chosen a Republican in every presidential contest since 1952. 

for all that:とはいうものの・にもかかわらず

A while ago this reporter wrote a column about a useful distinction made by European politicians, between the “clean right” and the “dirty right”. The clean right can be very conservative indeed, in this schema, but avoids appeals to prejudice and paranoia. The dirty right is quite willing to wade into the fever-swamps of hatred. Mr Trump seems to be trying to escape the dirty right (though hiring Mr Bannon is an odd move in that case). Mrs Clinton is determined to keep that label firmly round his neck, and to woo every unhappy Republican who wants to support the party of Ryan and Dole, not Breitbart and Trump. 

odd move:奇妙な動き


The world’s most liveable cities
Aug 18th 2016, 16:49 BY THE DATA TEAM


COMING up with a list of the world’s best cities is a near-impossible task. The bustle and hum of megacities like Sao Paulo or Tokyo might be too much for some people; others might struggle with the pace of life in Cleveland or Frankfurt. A ranking released on August 18th by our corporate cousin, the Economist Intelligence Unit, attempts instead to quantify the world’s most “liveable” cities—that is, which locations around the world provide the best or the worst living conditions. The index, measured out of 100, considers 30 factors related to safety, health care, educational resources, infrastructure and the environment to calculate scores for 140 cities. 

too much for:耐えきれない

火曜日。今日はこれまで。都市の評価だが、戦争しているダマスカス、キエフのようなところは確かに悪化しているが、大きく変化していることろはテヘラン、デュバイ、ハラレ(ハラレは、南部アフリカのジンバブエ共和国の首都で、この国最大の都市である。旧称はソールズベリー。 英国風の街並が並び、標高約1600mの高原の丘にあるため、夏でも平均気温は20度少し程度と涼しい。2010年の都市的地域の人口は217万人であり、世界第183位である。)ぐらいで、あと悪化しているところはデトロイト、香港、モスクワぐらいだ。


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これまでのものと変わったからといって正しくない クリントンはトランプの選挙運動が偏見と誇大妄想に基づいていると言っている。

Not alt-right
Clinton says Trump has based his campaign on prejudice and paranoia
Aug 25th 2016, 17:25 BY LEXINGTON | WASHINGTON, DC



TWENTY years ago when Bob Dole accepted the Republican presidential nomination: “He pointed to the exits and told any racists in the party to get out,” Hillary Clinton recalled approvingly on August 25th, as she neared the end of a speech that—in effect—accused Donald Trump of beckoning bigots back in to the heart of the conservative movement. Mrs Clinton’s account of Mr Trump’s closeness to white supremacists and conspiracy theorists was both brutal and detailed: closer in tone and structure to a prosecutor’s closing argument than to a traditional campaign speech. 

in effect:事実上
accuse ~ of:非難する
white supremacists :白人優先主義者
brutal :容赦のない

The Democrat started with Mr Trump’s record as a young property developer, when he was sued by the Department of Justice for refusing to rent apartments to black and Latino tenants (whose applications would be marked with a “C” for “coloured”, Mrs Clinton told her audience). Trawling through well-fished waters, she cited Mr Trump’s energetic promotion of the conspiracy theory that Barack Obama is not American-born, his claim that the Mexican government is actively sending rapists across the border and his assertion that a federal judge born in Indiana is biased against him because he is “a Mexican”. Indeed Mr Trump’s attack on a judge on the basis of his Hispanic heritage was condemned by the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, as “the textbook definition of a racist comment,” Mrs Clinton noted. 

Her case for the prosecution took her audience, in Reno, Nevada, into less familiar territory, too: the twilight world of the “alt-right”, a mostly online universe of ethno-nationalists and anti-immigration populists, that is at heart little more than a gussied-up, millennial-pleasing version of old-school white supremacist prejudice. Mrs Clinton urged voters to ponder what it means that Mr Trump recently hired as his campaign chief executive Stephen Bannon, the boss of Breitbart.com, a website much followed on the “alt-right”. She offered some Breitbart headlines, from “Would You Rather Your Child Had Feminism or Cancer” to “Hoist It High And Proud: The Confederate Flag Proclaims A Glorious Heritage.” She noted Breitbart’s contempt for mainstream conservative leaders and its many attacks on Mr Ryan, the House Speaker—a Republican who has urged his party to craft and promote policies to tackle inner-city poverty and curb racism, rather than ceding such ground to the Democrats. 

less familiar territory:あまり馴染みのない領域
twilight world:闇の怪しげな世界
at heart:気持ちの上では・本当のところ
little more than:と大差がない
millennial:Millennial Generation ミレニアル世代、新世紀世代◆1980年前後から2005年ごろにかけて生まれた世代。10代からデジタル環境になじんだ初の世代に当たる
Confederate Flag:南部連合旗
ceding such ground to:に関して譲歩する

Mrs Clinton noted Mr Trump’s vocal admiration for Vladimir Putin of Russia, who she called the “godfather” of a “global brand of extreme nationalism,” and his praise for Alex Jones, a talk radio host who has claimed that the Sandy Hook school shooting was faked by the government, with child actors used to play what he calls the non-existent victims. What kind of heart is dark enough to believe such things, she asked, ad-libbing from her prepare text, before quoting Mr Trump telling Mr Jones, during an appearance on his radio show, that he would not “let you down”. She cited news reports of white school students using Trump slogans to taunt Latino children in schools in Indiana and Iowa. 

Sandy Hook school shooting:サンディフック小学校銃乱射事件は、2012年12月14日9時35分ごろ、アメリカ合衆国東部コネチカット州のサンディフック小学校で発生した銃乱射事件(スクールシューティング)。事件後、「(銃規制をするために)事件すべてがでっちあげであり、被害者家族や目撃者もすべて俳優が演じていた」という噂が立ち、検証サイトやビデオがインターネットで拡散され、被害者家族への誹謗中傷まで起こった。
let you down:がっかりさせる

All these nods and winks, she argued, make a mockery of Mr Trump’s attempts, in the past week, to reset his image among non-white Americans. She poured scorn on speeches that Mr Trump has given in recent days, in which he has reached out to black Americans and accused Mrs Clinton of being a “bigot” whose policies hurt non-white voters and take them for granted. She quoted Mr Trump’s description of life in black inner-cities, which he has summed up as: “Poverty. Rejection. Horrible education. No housing. No homes. No ownership. Crime levels nobody has seen.” This, Mrs Clinton asserted was an insult to black America, which failed to see the success of black leaders, the vibrancy of black-owned business or the strength of the black church. What is more, Mr Trump had made those claims “in front of largely white audiences,” she chided. 

nods and winks:暗黙の了解
take them for granted:彼らを見くびる



swingby_blog at 07:00コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


その可能性はあなたの思い通りにいくのだろうか。 大きな意思決定を硬貨を投げて決めることによって、あなたの人生を向上させる

May the odds be ever in your favour
Improve your life by making huge decisions with a coin toss
Aug 18th 2016, 11:22 BY S.K. | LONDON

ever in your favour:まさに、あなたの好都合に


FACING a difficult decision? Toss a coin. It will change your life.
This is the message from a new working paper, by Steven Levitt of the University of Chicago (the Freakonomist), which suggests people are too cautious for their own good. And he isn’t talking about the small-stakes decisions economists usually analyse—he is focused on big life choices, like whether to quit a job or end a relationship.

Freakonomist:ヤバい経済学 – 2007/4/27 スティーヴン・D・レヴィット/スティーヴン・J・ダブナー アメリカに経済学ブームを巻き起こし、170万部のベストセラーとなった話題の書。若手経済学者のホープが、日常生活から裏社会まで、ユニークな分析で通念をひっくり返します。犯罪と中絶合法化論争のその後や、犬のウンコ、臓器売買、脱税など、もっとヤバい話題を追加した増補改訂版。 

著者について スティーヴン・D・レヴィット シカゴ大学で経済学の教鞭を執る.2003年,2年に1度40歳未満で最も優れたアメリ カの経済学者に贈られる,ジョン・ベイツ・クラーク・メダルを受賞.

内容紹介 「相撲に八百長なんてないとはとても言い張れない」 データ示す八百長の証拠とは? 新聞・テレビ・ラジオ・雑誌で話題沸騰。 悪ガキ教授が日常生活から裏社会まで、 ユニークな分析で通念をひっくり返します。 不動産広告の「環境良好」の隠された意味って? 90年代のアメリカで犯罪が激減したのはなぜ? 勉強ができる子の親ってどんな人? 銃とプール、危ないのはどっち? 相撲の力士は八百長なんてしない? 学校の先生はインチキなんてしない? ヤクの売人がママと住んでいるのはなぜ? 出会い系サイトの自己紹介はウソ? ウィキペディアは信頼できる? アメリカに経済学ブームを巻き起こし、 400万部のベストセラーとなった話題の書。  

Working out whether people would be happier if they moved away from the status quo for big life decisions is tough. Running a randomised controlled trial would involve some tricky ethics and practicalities—we would rightly balk at the idea of Mr Levitt demanding that half of his sample group go get divorced to see whether they regret it. Mr Levitt got around such problems by making his experiment voluntary. He made a website and asked listeners of his podcast, readers of the Financial Times and Forbes, and Reddit users to help him out by visiting it. They were invited to give details of a big decision they were struggling with, then witness a coin toss to help them make up their mind. Mr Levitt then followed up with them twice, after two months and after six months, to ask whether they had made the change, and how happy they were.


Two months later, people who had made the big change said that they were happier than those who hadn’t, regardless of what their coin flip decreed. All this tells us is that those who chose to change convinced themselves that they chose well.


Mr Levitt wanted to know whether, at the margin, people were making the right choice. If the coin toss tipped people into making the change (and his results suggest that it did: after two months, 63% of respondents reported that they followed the coin’s orders, higher than the 50% you might expect if it had no effect) then he could use that to isolate how happy those extra people were made by the change. 

at the margin:限界状態で

He finds that for bigger decisions, “those who were instructed by the coin toss to make a change were both more likely to make the change...and, on average, report greater happiness on the follow-up surveys.” 

This bold claim requires some pretty careful caveats (which Mr Levitt acknowledges in the paper). First, Mr Levitt’s sample frame was pretty unrepresentative of the population as a whole. Readers of the FT and Forbes are hardly your average Joe (or Jill). According to a study from Pew in 2013, around 6% of online adults are reddit users, and they tend to be disproportionately young, male, urban and Hispanic compared to the population at large. And we all know economists are a weird bunch (as this economics blogger can attest). 

reddit:アメリカ最大級のソーシャルニュースサイト、掲示板である。 概要 一部メディアでは「米国版2ちゃんねる」と言われることもある。
at large:全体的に
weird bunch:異様な集団

The sample was skewed further by being voluntary. Someone interested enough to read the post, keen enough to click through and then happy to follow up is probably not your average person, just as surveying Ivy League students on Donald Trump will not give you a complete impression of what American voters think. And it could be that the kinds of people drawn into the study really were made happier by the coin toss, but that they are unlike other people who would not dream of trivialising a huge life choice via an economist’s kooky experiment. 


Next there is the question of whether the increase in self-reported happiness was a good indication of a wise choice. Respondents may have convinced themselves that they were happier; even though Mr Levitt found that their surveyed friends largely agreed, the rationalisation could have affected others too. 


Whatever the methodological flaws in Mr Levitt’s study, he deserves credit for having a go, though whether a journal editor ought to play along is another question. And his main result, that people chicken out of big decisions, rings true (Brexit aside). We already know about status-quo bias for small decisions, so it’s not that surprising that for bigger, more complicated decisions we are similarly “human”. 

deserves credit:賞賛に値する・支持する
chicken out :尻込みする
rings true :真実のように思える

For policymakers, the lesson is that the status quo is a powerful thing. And for those tired of hearing their friend obsess over whether to dump a disastrous boyfriend, they have a new weapon in their armoury—in their wallet. 




swingby_blog at 08:36コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 



The case for delaying Brexit
Aug 21st 2016, 23:51 BY J.P.


THERESA MAY, the British prime minister, has repeatedly insisted that “Brexit means Brexit”. But she has also said that she will not invoke Article 50 of the European Union’s Lisbon treaty, the only legal way to leave the EU, this year. And some ministers are now suggesting that it would be wise to put off the formal invocation of Article 50 until mid-2017 (after the French presidential election) or even later. Yet Britons voted by a clear margin on June 23rd to leave the EU. So what is the argument for deferral?

put off:先延ばしにする
by a clear margin:明確な差をつけて

The simple answer is that leaving an organisation as huge and highly regulated as the EU is a massively complex task that requires as much preparation as possible. Part of the challenge is purely administrative. As soon as she took office, Mrs May appointed three pro-Brexit ministers to supervise Britain’s departure from the EU. David Davis is the secretary of state at the new Department for Exiting the European Union, which will co-ordinate the Brexit process. Liam Fox is in charge of the new Department for International Trade, which is meant to negotiate Britain’s post-Brexit trade deals with the EU and with third countries. And Boris Johnson as foreign secretary is responsible for Britain’s relations with the rest of the world, including the EU. These three ministers are busy setting up and staffing their departments to handle the Brexit negotiations. Not surprisingly, that takes time and is leading to turf wars over who does what.

turf war:縄張り争い

But there are also powerful political reasons to pause before invoking Article 50. Its provisions are biased against would-be leavers. It gives the other 27 EU countries the right to determine the terms for Brexit without Britain even having a vote on them. And it sets a two-year deadline for departure that can be extended only with the unanimous approval of all 27 national governments. Trade negotiators say that, based on past experience, it will take far longer than this to agree on and ratify the terms of a trade deal between Britain and the EU, let alone deals with the 58 or so third countries that have their own free-trade agreements with the EU. So there could be a hiatus between the expiry of Article 50’s two-year limit and new trade arrangements, during which Britain would have to fall back on trade under normal World Trade Organisation rules. That could imply tariffs on many exports of goods, including cars, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and not cover most exports of services, including financial services, the fastest-growing sector of British exports. It is to minimise the risk of this that some want to delay the whole Brexit process.

biased :偏っている
let alone deal:取引をすることは言うまでもなく

Yet it will not be possible to put off invoking Article 50 indefinitely. Brexiteers (and a majority of voters) are expecting the referendum vote to be honoured. Some will be suspicious of any delay because they know that Mrs May, like a majority of her ministers and MPs, backed the remain side. And although Britain’s EU partners are willing to give Mrs May some time to prepare her negotiating stance, they will not be prepared to negotiate seriously over the terms of Brexit and of future trading arrangements until she starts the formal procedure, not least because they also know that it puts them in a stronger bargaining position. So it is likely that Mrs May will come under heavy pressure from all sides to invoke Article 50 during the first few months of 2017.

bargaining position:交渉上の立場



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素晴らしい人たち ドナルドトランプは彼のチームを再び、再編成している。

Fantastic people
Donald Trump shakes up his team again
Aug 20th 2016 | WASHINGTON, DC | From the print edition


Paul Manafort, Trump whisperer
IN A bid to signal readiness to govern, Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, named the heads of her White House transition team on August 16th. The team—which will vet potential senior members of a Clinton administration and begin policy planning, in a standard practice for major party nominees—will be chaired by Ken Salazar, a centrist former senator from Colorado and ex-interior secretary, distrusted on the left for his pro-trade and pro-business instincts. 

interior secretary:内務長官

A day later, signalling his readiness to wage a bare-knuckle, brutally populist slugging-match to keep Mrs Clinton from power, Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, announced a shake-up of his own team, appointing as his campaign chief executive Stephen Bannon, the chairman of Breitbart News, a hard-right, conspiracy-tinged website. Aides to Mr Trump told the New York Times that the businessman is also being advised on his upcoming debates with Mrs Clinton by Roger Ailes, a vastly experienced media strategist who cut his teeth teaching Richard Nixon how to appear more likeable on television. Mr Ailes resigned as chairman of Fox News in July amid allegations of sexual harassment by female former employees. 

cut his teeth:経験を積む

This tale of two campaigns came as opinion polls showed Mr Trump continuing to shed support among college-educated whites, married women and other voter blocs that have reliably skewed Republican in successive presidential elections. In interviews, Mr Trump has seethed at media reports that his campaign staff and prominent Republicans yearn for him to “pivot” to a more presidential approach, involving scripted attacks on Mrs Clinton read from a teleprompter. A leading advocate of such a pivot, Paul Manafort, remains Mr Trump’s campaign chairman, but his clout appears diminished by the recruitment of Mr Bannon and a new campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster who has worked for Mike Pence, Mr Trump’s running-mate, and Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives. It does not help Mr Manafort that he has spent days fending off reports about his time as a highly paid consultant to a Ukrainian political party with close ties to Russia. 

fending off:かわす・批判をそらす

Mr Trump still draws large, frenzied crowds to rallies, and appears unwilling to abandon the style—involving appeals to America-first nationalism, doomy talk of crimes committed by immigrants, vengeful attacks on a “lying” press and claims that the November election may be “rigged”—that reliably fires up such gatherings. After all, that approach won him the presidential primary contest. He maintains hefty leads among his most loyal voter blocs, notably older whites without a college degree. But paths to general-election victory involve winning an increasingly daunting number of such voters, in such battlegrounds as Florida, Pennsylvania and the post-industrial Midwest, where his polls are going the wrong way. 


Mr Trump calls Mr Bannon and other hires “fantastic people who know how to win”. Republican leaders in Congress—routinely denounced as establishment shills and enemies of the working man by Breitbart News—may have different descriptions for the new Trump team. 




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