EUが貿易をすることができないと言うのなら、一体何ができると言うのだろうか? CETAの大失敗は政府が何も決定できない時代の先駆けになる。

If the EU cannot do trade, what can it do?
The CETA debacle heralds the age of “vetocracy”
Oct 29th 2016 | From the print edition

vetocracy:拒否権主義 権力が分散して、政府が重要な決定をできない状態


IN HAPPIER days for the European Union the arcana of international trade policy were a matter for harmless eccentrics, while the intricacies of Belgium’s constitutional arrangements were reserved strictly for masochists. Not in today’s Europe, where crises strike in the most unexpected places. Behold the fiasco of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada. Last-minute stonewalling by the Socialist-led parliament of Wallonia, the French-speaking bit of Belgium, meant that Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, had to hold off visiting Brussels for a summit on October 27th to sign the trade and investment deal which has been seven years in the making. As The Economist went to press the federal government had succeeded in winning the Walloons round. Thus did a regional parliament representing 3.6m people nearly thwart the will of governments representing 545m. 

constitutional arrangement:合法的な取り決め
Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) :カナダとEUの間の包括的経済貿易協定
went to press:印刷所に出す

The debacle has many fathers. Wallonia’s Socialists, out of national office for the first time in decades, are troubled by fringe leftists and keen for attention. The Flemish, their richer (and more trade-friendly) partners in Belgium’s awkward federal construction, have long pushed for decentralisation that has now come back to bite them. The European Commission, which negotiates foreign trade on behalf of EU governments, should have foreseen that a “next-generation” deal such as CETA, replete with special courts for investors and complex provisions on the mutual recognition of standards, would attract next-generation opposition. 

national office:国内官庁

But the contingencies of CETA slot into a broader pattern. From regional parliaments to national referendums and restive constitutional courts, numerous spoilers have been hindering what should be routine European business. The EU is supposed to provide a forum in which governments can mediate their differences and forge compromises. But referendums are impervious to negotiation; regional parliaments are answerable only to their voters. Instead obscure politicians, like Paul Magnette, the indomitable minister-president of Wallonia, can extract concessions as ransom for their political hostage-taking, or simply hog the limelight. As regions or countries transfer their pathologies upwards to Europe, the EU risks sliding towards what Americans call a “vetocracy”. 

broader pattern:より広範なパターン
hog the limelight:人の注目を浴びる

What’s worse, trade is the one thing the EU is supposed to be able to do well. The Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957, granted Brussels the exclusive right to negotiate trade deals on behalf of governments. Since then the EU has concluded such accords with more than 50 countries; dozens more are in the pipeline. By the commission’s reckoning, one-seventh of the European workforce depends, directly or indirectly, on external trade (and all citizens benefit from cheaper goods). Last week Donald Tusk, who chairs summits of EU leaders, warned that failure on CETA would mean the EU could never strike a trade deal again. Not only would that choke off an important source of growth; it would make it difficult to see exactly what the point of European co-operation is. 

strike a trade deal:貿易協定を結ぶ
choke off :抑制する

The mess over CETA is in part collateral damage from the row over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a bigger and more vexatious EU-America agreement. Protesters transferred their outrage seamlessly from one to the other, dismissing cuddly Canada as a Trojan horse for rapacious American multinationals seeking to trample on European standards. The investment-protection provisions of the two deals (supposedly the main Walloon grievance) proved another source of trouble. Even after they were watered down, Europe’s governments forced the commission to declare CETA a “mixed” deal, meaning it required ratification by each national parliament (and, in Belgium’s case, five regional assemblies) rather than the European Parliament alone. If TTIP is ever signed—which now looks increasingly unlikely—it will surely face the same tortuous fate. 

collateral damage:付随的損害
rapacious :略奪をほしいままにする

Deals that do not carry a transatlantic whiff may fare better. As Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission president, noted in frustration last week, the EU has recently concluded an agreement with Vietnam, a country not noted for its dedication to human rights, without a whisper of protest. Talks with Japan, too, are quietly approaching the finishing line. 


Yet the EU’s credibility as a trade negotiator rests on its ability to speak for its members. Without that, the world’s largest consumer market starts to lose its allure. The agonising course of CETA will not quickly be forgotten by potential partners. If boning up on the niceties of Belgian regional politics, or the details of national referendum laws, becomes a prerequisite for negotiating with the EU, they will start to wonder if it is worth the bother. 


Worthwhile Canadian initiative
More worrying is the damage to the EU’s self-esteem. The club is trying to get over its funk about Britain’s vote to leave by pushing something called the “Bratislava roadmap”, a policy blueprint of sorts for the months ahead. If its initiatives do not amount to much, it is at least an attempt to demonstrate that Brexit will not paralyse ordinary decision-making. Plainly, the Walloons did not get the memo. Striking a trade deal with a friendly partner like Canada should have been about as easy as it gets for the EU. 

get over:克服する
“Bratislava roadmap”:The Bratislava Declaration Today we meet in Bratislava at a critical time for our European project. The Bratislava Summit of 27 Member States has been devoted to diagnose together the present state of the European Union and discuss our common future. We all agreed on the following general principles. Although one country has decided to leave, the EU remains indispensable for the rest of us. In the aftermath of the wars and deep divisions on our continent, the EU secured peace, democracy and enabled our countries to prosper. Many countries and regions outside still only strive for such achievements. We are determined to make a success of the EU with 27 Member States, building on this joint history.
get the memo:そんな話は聞いていない・情報を手に入れていなかった

Few can take heart from this embarrassment. Eurosceptic governments that have sought to take back powers from Brussels, like Hungary and Poland, certainly did not have trade in mind. Trade-phobic leftists who cheered the plucky Walloons should remember that the next referendum or parliamentary vote might be turned against one of their own causes, such as generosity to refugees. In fact, the only politicians with cause for celebration are those who argue that the EU itself is past its sell-by date. True to form, Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s National Front, denounced the “totalitarian” EU for attempting to squash Wallonian democracy. Though it has squeaked through, CETA will leave an unhappy legacy. 

take heart from:元気を出す
trade in mind:念頭に置いて取引をする
sell-by:be past one's sell-by date ⦅くだけて⦆無効になる, もはや役に立たない[興味をそそらない]; 〈人などが〉全盛期を過ぎている.
True to form:例のごとく



swingby_blog at 21:21コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 



Chinese firms are investing heavily in American hotels
Oct 28th 2016, 13:49 BY A.W. | WASHINGTON, DC


CHINESE tourists are an increasingly common sight in America’s cities, from New York to Honolulu. About 2m Chinese visit the country each year; that figure is expected to rise to over 3m by the end of the decade. But it is not just Chinese tourists who have been enjoying American hospitality; it’s Chinese investors, too. 


This week HNA Group, a Chinese firm that began life as an aviation company, announced that it is to buy a 25% stake in Hilton Worldwide Holdings. It will be the largest shareholder in the hotelier whose brands also include Embassy Suites, Hampton Inn and Conrad. 


The deal is the latest in a year that has already seen substantial Chinese investment in American hotels. In April, an HNA division announced it was buying Carlson Hotels, which owns Radisson and several other brands. Last month, Anbang Insurance Group completed the purchase of 15 American hotels in a deal worth more than $5bn, including the JW Marriott Essex House in New York, the Westin St. Francis in San Francisco, the InterContinental in Chicago, a Four Seasons in Washington, DC, and two Ritz-Carlton resorts. And just last week came the news that China Life Insurance Co. is leading an investment group that is buying a $2bn stake in a collection of 280 American establishments. 


All of this follows Anbang’s purchase last year of the iconic Waldorf Astoria in New York for nearly $2bn, the highest price ever paid for an American hotel. With all of these massive deals on the slate, Anbang’s failed attempt to take over Starwood Hotels & Resorts earlier this year looks like a mere blip. 


Buying hotels isn’t an obvious step for aviation or insurance companies. But it appears to be happening for two reasons. One is that the American hospitality industry is seen as a safe place for Chinese investors to park their money. The recent slowdown in Chinese economic growth has caused jitters at home and prompted more investments abroad. They have been particularly keen on buying luxury real estate in places like New York and Vancouver, where Chinese owners are becoming common. But in an effort to diversify, and in a recognition of the hospitality industry’s strength—a record number of rooms have been booked in America over the past year—Chinese investors increasingly see hotels as a good option. 


The second reason is a form of vertical integration in the tourism industry. This could have a big effect on travel. HNA is ambitious. Its chairman wants the firm to become one of the top 100 companies in the world by 2020 and one of the top 50 by 2030 and acquisitions are seen as a way to achieve this. Founded in 1993 as a regional airline on the island of Hainan, HNA now has nearly $100bn in assets and 200,000 employees. It has acquired a stake in more than 2,000 hotels and flies more than 90m passengers annually. It recently reached deals to buy an aircraft-leasing business, an airline caterer and an airport luggage handler. 

vertical integration:企業の垂直統合

Why? In short, Chinese are travelling in record numbers. Tourists from the mainland will spend more than $70bn at home and abroad this year, according to the state-backed China Travel Academy, and Chinese companies are hoping to capture as much of that spending as possible. Firms like HNA could conceivably control every stage of the travel process for many Chinese travellers, from the visible elements like the airlines and hotels to the behind-the-scene details in the airports and in the air. All of which means that if you book a trip to the United States and stay at an American hotel, it’s possible that much of the money generated—from the food on your plane, to the handling of your baggage, the leasing of your aircraft and the stay at your hotel—could go to Chinese companies. 




swingby_blog at 21:18コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


フロリダがダメなら破滅だ! 絶対勝たなければならない州のトランプの成功は年配の白人とラテン系アメリカ人をさらに巻き込めるかどうかだ。(2)


Against that background, Mr Trump’s ability to win over significant numbers of white Floridians — especially senior citizens, who typically turn out to vote in large numbers — will be critical to his chances in November. Nearly 20 per cent of Florida’s population is 65 and over, the highest percentage in the nation. Polling by the Pew Research Center shows that 47 per cent of registered voters aged 65 or over nationwide support Mr Trump, compared with 39 per cent for Mrs Clinton. 

The profile of Mr Trump’s supporters in Celebration and in the region’s gated communities — white, well-to-do and well educated — defies the common perception that he is relying on a narrow coterie of working-class men whose hope has been eroded by income stagnation and deindustrialisation. 


“Older, white voters tend to be a key demographic for Donald Trump,” says Kevin Wagner, an associate professor of politics at Florida Atlantic University. “‘Make America Great Again’ is a slogan that appeals very much to older voters — it brings back a heyday of when the country was at its best.” 

A Trump supporter wearing a sash with the words 'I am deplorable' at a Republican rally in Miami on September 16 c Getty


For some older residents of Celebration, changes outside their town are a source of concern — and they are turning to Mr Trump for answers. Ms Lucas complains that Osceola County has seen an influx of poorer families whom she believes local authorities are enticing in order to clinch federal subsidies. Jim Siegel, another Trump supporter in Celebration, warns that illegal immigrants and homeless people who are willing to work for “just about anything” are suppressing wages in the county, where nearly one in five households lives in poverty and many local motels host homeless families. 


Drive a few minutes from leafy Celebration and you find yourself among the strip malls, fast-food restaurants and cut-price gift shops of America’s theme- park heartland. With attractions including Disney World and Universal Studios planning further expansions and a resurgence in construction of single-family homes, openings for builders are growing, as are low-wage posts in the vital hospitality sector. 

strip mall:ショッピングセンター

To the Clinton campaign, the growth and diversity of the population in these areas present a clear opportunity. Greater Orlando, of which Osceola County forms part, is the fastest-growing of the top 30 US metropolises — thanks in significant part to a rapidly expanding Hispanic population. 

In Osceola, the Hispanic population grew by 20 per cent between 2012 and 2015, driven by arrivals from economically stricken Puerto Rico. “The new demography will make a big difference in Hillary Clinton’s favour assuming they can get the turnout high along the I-4 corridor,” says William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution think-tank. 


Viviana Janer, a Democratic county commissioner in Osceola, says the campaign has set up 11 offices along the I-4 corridor, with four of them in Greater Orlando, as the party steps up its efforts to engage Hispanic voters. There are hundreds of paid staffers and volunteers manning phone banks and canvassing door to door. Their efforts are focused both on registration and on convincing people to vote before November 8 or by post — as well as on securing longer opening hours at polling stations. 

phone bank:コールセンターの電話の列
canvassing :勧誘して回る
by post:郵送で

Though Mr Trump has eschewed building a traditional “ground game” in battleground states such as Florida, Republicans stress they have been working for three years to win over Hispanic voters. Campaigners have attended church events and cultural festivals in Greater Orlando in the search for political converts. 

ground game:米国用法)地方の政治団体(政党支部)

‘Eliminated him as an option’


Nevertheless, Mr Trump’s rhetoric on immigration has turned off a large portion of the Hispanic vote, especially after the businessman doubled down on his harsh migration policies following his recent highly publicised trip to Mexico, Ms Janer argues. “A lot of the people I have spoken to who were maybe on the fence or even considering him have absolutely eliminated him as an option because of that speech.” 

doubled down:倍賭けする◆ギャンブルにおいて、負けるたびに賭け金を2倍ずつ増やし続けること。負けが続いても、勝った時点でそれまでの損金を全て取り戻すことができる。

Created by the Walt Disney Co, Celebration is an idealised sliver of mid-20th century Americana


One such voter is Sammy Torres, who works as a sous-chef at a Disney World restaurant as well as holding down a second job at another local eatery. Critical to the Democratic pitch to low-wage service workers along the I-4 corridor is the argument that Mr Trump will reverse the economic progress they have seen, for example because of his ambiguous and oscillating policies on the federal minimum wage. 

holding down:職についている
Critical to:にとっては欠かせない Argumentが主語

Mr Torres, who earns $11.50 an hour and whose parents are Puerto Rican, sits in a branch of McDonald’s after finishing his shift. He lost his house in the property crash in Florida and now lives in a local motel. He and other workers employed by the catering company Sodexo in the area are seeking to join the local union, Unite Here, to strengthen their employment terms. 


Mr Torres is disparaging of Mr Trump. But while he plans to vote for Mrs Clinton, he seems more excited by the idea of Mr Clinton returning to the White House than his wife, pointing out that the former president presided over surging growth and rising house prices in the 1990s. “I have seen what Bill Clinton can do,” he says. 


This speaks to the enthusiasm gap Mrs Clinton’s campaign will need to bridge if it is to capitalise on favourable demographic forces in the region. Turnout among Hispanic voters is systematically lower compared with other groups, with only 48 per cent of eligible Latinos voting in 2012, compared with 67 per cent for blacks and 64 per cent for whites. Worryingly for Mrs Clinton, a recent poll by Univision suggested she is winning a smaller share of the Hispanic vote than Mr Obama did in 2012. 


At a rally in neighbouring Orange County earlier this month, Mr Clinton was seeking to energise a crowd of a few hundred supporters. In a reproach to the insular approach of Mr Trump, Mr Clinton said there was no going back on the “interdependent age”, where different faiths and ethnicities and lifestyles are thrown together, as in Greater Orlando. 

interdependent age:お互いに支え合う世代
thrown together:急ごしらえみ集めていつ来る

The modest crowd was enthusiastic but by no means euphoric. Afterwards Juanita Riley, a 65-year-old retired mental health counsellor, says Mrs Clinton needs to level with voters in the wake of the controversy over her use of a personal email server when she was secretary of state. “She is like an iron lady: she doesn’t apologise quickly,” she says. “I think she is beginning to realise it is just time for her to talk to people, and not to evade.” 

level with:本当のことを言う

An unconventional pitch 
As questions surround Mrs Clinton’s efforts to mobilise supporters, her rival’s backers scent an opportunity in the air. Standing next to the dusty rodeo arena he operates in Osceola County, which is known for its cattle ranches as well as theme parks, Jed Suhl is fired up about Mr Trump’s unconventional pitch for the presidency. 

unconventional pitch:慣例にとらわれない投球

A Stetson-hat wearing former bucking bronco rider, Mr Suhl is running for Republican commissioner in Osceola — an area dominated by Democratic officials. He browses an app on his mobile phone, using it to identify potential supporters. He claims that by going door to door he has uncovered an unexpected affinity for Mr Trump among independent voters — among them one family of Mexican origin. 

affinity :親近感

Mr Suhl is not counting on Osceola County going for the Republicans, but a strong showing by Mr Trump could help swing his district in his favour. As the 2000 election showed, every vote counts in Florida. “Let’s see if he can pull this one off,” he says. “He’s been a winner all his life.” 

pull off:うまくやり通す

Orlando: Clinton courts Puerto Ricans

One of the most valuable electoral prizes in the Greater Orlando area is the Puerto Rican population, which has risen rapidly in Florida as the small Caribbean island grapples with economic collapse. 


The number of Hispanics of Puerto Rican origin now living in the state more than doubled between 2000 and 2014, when it surpassed 1m for the first time, according to Census Bureau data. 

The key driver of the arrivals is the economic crisis in Puerto Rico, which has lost 9 per cent of its population over the past decade. Many of them have moved to Greater Orlando in search of work in the region’s rapidly growing tourist sector. 

While Puerto Ricans are American citizens, they cannot vote in a presidential election as long as they are living on the island itself, which is a US territory. As soon as they move to the mainland, they are eligible to participate in the election, but they have traditionally been slow to register and turn out to vote. 

The Orlando metropolitan area has the biggest population of Puerto Ricans in the state. Unlike in southern Florida, where there is a large Cuban community, the Hispanic population in central Florida tends to be more Democratic. Surveys show Puerto Ricans take a dim view of Donald Trump and the Republican candidate’s often hostile rhetoric about immigrants. 


A key question for Hillary Clinton’s Democratic campaign is whether Puerto Ricans will turn out to vote. Buddy Dyer, the mayor of Orlando, acknowledges that the share of Puerto Ricans who vote is likely to lag behind their weight in the population. But a redrawing of local boundaries has helped to put more Latino candidates on the ballot this time, which could help bring people to the polls, he said. The Democratic party, he added, has been spending “time, money and effort” trying to register Hispanics and get them to the polls. “She closes Trump out if she wins [Florida],” he says of Mrs Clinton. 

lag behind:遅れをとる



swingby_blog at 21:52コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


フロリダがダメなら破滅だ! 絶対勝たなければならない州のトランプの成功は年配の白人とラテン系アメリカ人をさらに巻き込めるかどうかだ。

Trump v Clinton: Florida or bust
Trump’s success in must-win state hinges on whether older white voters or Hispanics hold more sway
SEPTEMBER 20, 2016 by: Sam Fleming FT


or bust:ダメなら破滅だ!


The Sunshine battleground: Donald Trump speaks at a rally Estero, Florida on Monday September 19 c AFP

Living in Celebration, a small town of about 7,000 souls in central Florida, is like being back in the 1950s, says Anne Lucas, a 74-year-old resident. Some of her neighbours describe it as The Bubble. 

The Bubble:希望

This is how Celebration’s citizens like it. The town was confected two decades ago by the Walt Disney Company to be an idealised sliver of mid-20th century Americana — a carefully curated haven of wooden verandas, front porches and picket fences, with a filmset capacity to conjure up comforting impressions of small-town innocence. 

sliver :わずかな部分・希望

Sitting in her neat front sitting room with her husband Gene, Ms Lucas has no doubt which of the two main presidential candidates has the better chance of restoring the social cohesion and family-friendly safety she cherishes in Celebration, whose logo is of a girl cycling under an oak tree. 


“I think he’s going to win by a landslide: it will be a ‘come to Jesus’ moment in the polls,” she says of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. The US is losing its identity amid globalisation, illegal immigration and moral degradation, argues Ms Lucas, a stern woman who is a semi-retired geriatric care manager. “Russia is a strong country. China is a strong country. Japan is a strong country. We are just mush,” she says. 

come to Jesus:イエスを信じて
says of:について言う

Convincing older, well-educated white citizens like the Lucases to turn out in November will be critical to Mr Trump’s hopes of overcoming his weakness among Florida’s rapidly growing Hispanic population and clinching victory in the biggest swing state. 

turn out in November:11月に結果が出る

His chances of achieving that feat have grown in recent days. Mr Trump has edged ahead in Florida opinion polls while Hillary Clinton struggles to capitalise on her sophisticated ground game and tens of millions in advertising spending. 

edged ahead:先んじる
ground game:(米国用法)地方の政治団体(政党支部)

The neck-and-neck polling has raised the stakes in a state that has the potential to be decisive in the outcome of the November election and has a history of razor-thin electoral margins. 


“My gut feeling is that it is going to be close, and that Florida may be the deciding factor,” says Mark Oxner, the chairman of the Republican party in Osceola County, where Celebration is located. He predicts Mr Trump will clinch the state, adding: “If Trump doesn’t win Florida he doesn’t win the election.” 

gut feeling:第六感

Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton have for months been lavishing attention and campaign visits on Florida. Mrs Clinton is heading to Orlando on Wednesday as she seeks to get her campaign back on track following a pneumonia-induced hiatus. Mr Trump campaigned in Fort Myers on Monday after visiting Miami only three days earlier. 


Protesters hold a sign outside the Republican presidential nominee's fundraiser in Miami in July c AFP

Their focus reflects the state’s longstanding and notorious importance in presidential elections. Florida’s vote-tallying fumbles were pivotal in the 2000 election, in which George W Bush beat Al Gore after the count went to the Supreme Court. In 2012, Florida was the only state decided by less than a single percentage point as Barack Obama narrowly edged asidebeat Mitt Romney. The last time the victor in Florida failed to win the presidency was 1992, when Bill Clinton lost the state to George HW Bush. 

asidebeat:? A-side beat レコードの表のA面のように優れたやつ?

Campaign focus 
Celebration lies in the heart of one of the most unpredictable and fiercely contested parts of the state — the so-called I-4 corridor, a stretch of highway including Tampa on the state’s west coast and Orlando farther east. 

I-4:Interstate 4 (I-4) is a 132.298-mile-long (212.913 km) Interstate Highway in the U.S. state of Florida, along a southwest–northeast axis from I-275 in Tampa to I-95 at Daytona Beach. See below.

It is a region in the midst of breakneck population expansion and rapid social change driven by the arrival of tens of thousands of families — many of them Hispanics who have been alienated by Mr Trump’s nativist invective. 




swingby_blog at 20:43コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


Donald Trumpの勝利の可能性は少なくなっている。

Donald Trump’s slimming chances of victory
Oct 24th 2016, 18:09 BY THE DATA TEAM


Donald Trumpの勝利の可能性は少なくなっている。

A NEW axis of evil—comprising an unholy alliance of the mainstream media, pollsters and traitors within the Republican party—threatens Donald Trump’s electoral chances. So says the beleaguered candidate, who today vented on Twitter that “we are winning and the press is refusing to report it”. He also contributed a free tip to journalists, saying the “major story” of the election was Democrats rigging polls against him. 

axis of evil:悪の枢軸

Mr Trump may simply be hedging his bets. Assuming no cabal of conspiring pollsters is uncovered, the outlook for his presidential hopes appears grim. An average of professional polls with statistically sound methodologies—the kind the Republican nominee scorns—puts him roughly six percentage points behind his opponent, Hillary Clinton. This close to the election, presidential polls have historically missed the final tally by only 1.8 points, dispiriting news for still-hopeful Trumpistas. 


Using polls’ record of accuracy in past American presidential contests, it is possible to construct rough probabilities of victory for Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton. Surveys taken months before the November election, when primary races are still being contested, are of course more prone to error than ones conducted just a few days before the vote. Even a seemingly commanding lead of eight percentage points 200 days ahead of the election, when polls historically miss the mark by four points, could conceivably evaporate. As a result, the confidence intervals (a range of likeliest outcomes) surrounding polling averages are wide early in the campaign, when there is more uncertainty, and narrow steadily as it nears its end. 

seemingly :どうやら・外見上は
miss the mark:的

In the increasingly vibrant discipline of statistical election forecasting, the single most important number is the probability of victory. Applying a quick, back-of-the-envelope method (see below) based on polls’ historical performance yields a 96% chance of a win for Mrs Clinton. That figure is in the same ballpark as more sophisticated projections, but slightly higher: the New York Times gives her 92%, FiveThirtyEight 87% and PredictWise 90%, not that any of those marks should provide much solace to Mr Trump. The Republican nominee will probably reject this reality and insist that the polls are tainted. But the last major effort to “unskew” the polls—when the author Dean Chambers claimed in 2012 that they systematically under-represented supporters of Mitt Romney—concluded in heartbreak for the GOP. 

vibrant :鮮明な

Methodological appendix: To derive the probability of a victory for Hillary Clinton, we first calculated the historical error rate for polls using a data set of presidential-election polling going back to 1952 compiled by Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, two political scientists. For each day in the sample, we computed the average error from the final tallies, and how much those errors varied from one election to another. 


We used this mean and standard deviation to fit a t-distribution with 15 degrees of freedom (since our data set consists of 16 elections), yielding a probability for every possible magnitude and direction of error. Based on this distribution and the current polling average as reported by RealClearPolitics, presidential polls two weeks before the vote should understate the trailing candidate’s support by a margin greater than the favourite’s lead just 4% of the time. All analysis was conducted on two-party vote share. 

t-distribution:t分布とは、平均に関する統計分布です。 標本の平均と標準偏差から、母集団の平均を推定したり、2つのグループの間で平均に差があるかを検定したりするときに用いられます。

Image result




swingby_blog at 22:08コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 


モスルへの進撃 イラクの第二の都市はISILから解放されるだろう。しかしながら、どんな犠牲を払い、どんな結果になるのだろうか?

Marching on Mosul 
Iraq’s second-largest city will be liberated from Islamic State. But at what cost, and with what result? 
Oct 20th 2016 | From the print edition 


“THE time of victory has come...today I declare the start of these victorious operations to free you from the violence and terrorism of Daesh [Islamic State].” With these words, broadcast at 2am on October 17th, Iraq’s prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, announced the start of the long-awaited offensive to liberate Mosul, the country’s second city. First captured by the jihadists in June 2014, it is the only big town in Iraq that they still hold. 

This will be the most complex military operation in the country since the American invasion in 2003. The opening phase alone may take several weeks. It began with some 4,000 Kurdish Peshmerga forces advancing on three fronts from the east to within about eight miles (13km) of the city. With support from attack helicopters and air strikes by the American-led coalition, their initial aim was to take control of a number of IS-held villages covering a 45-square-mile (115-square-km) area across the Nineveh plain. Iraqi forces pushing up from the south were joining them as the offensive met its first objective, but briefly stalled because of bad weather, pockets of IS resistance (including suicide-bombers) and the need to clear large numbers of previously buried roadside bombs. 


Overall, the advance is still on track. But it took the Iraqi army six hours of fierce combat on October 17th to chase IS fighters from Ibrahim Khalil, a village 20 miles south of Mosul. Overpowered, the militants fled into the parched plains. But they returned as night fell to attack the Iraqi forces with suicide bombs, mortars and heavy machine guns. “No reinforcements showed up so when they attacked we had to retreat from the five villages we captured on Tuesday. We ended up right back where we started,” said Lieutenant-Colonel Mohammed Hadi. “We took back three today but we can’t advance further towards Mosul until the others arrive.” . 

parched plain:乾燥した平原
Lieutenant-Colonel :陸軍中佐

It is too early to say how stiff a fight IS will put up. It has had many months to prepare its positions—tunnels have even been dug in some of the outlying villages. It may take another week for Iraqi forces to reach the outskirts of the city, and another month to achieve a degree of control within it. Some commanders are even more cautious about the timetable. 

put up:戦いを挑む

Michael Knights of the Washington Institute, an American think-tank, describes a multi-phased operation, which began with the refurbishment of the Qayyarah air base, some 40 miles south of Mosul, after it was recaptured by the ISF in early July. Qayyarah, which can now handle coalition cargo aircraft, is both the logistical base and the collecting point for Iraqi forces gathering for the attack. About 600 American military advisers (and special forces) arrived there a couple of weeks ago to train and prepare the Iraqis. In all, there appear to be some 25,000 Iraqi army and special-forces troops in place. These, says Mr Knights, have been drawn from across the country to form multi-ethnic, cross-sectarian units. Another 6,000 or so mainly Sunni tribal forces have been recruited from the surrounding area. 

ISF:Iraqi security forces

As well as the Kurdish Peshmerga, Shia popular-mobilisation forces, most of them backed by Iran, are keen to join the action. However, the aim is for them to secure areas to the west of Mosul. They will do this by stopping IS fighters from fleeing into Syria, by helping take back the town of Tal Afar and by stopping Turkish-backed Kurds from entering Mosul. They seem to have accepted that they will not join in the fighting for the city. Their entry there certainly would not be welcomed by the city’s mainly Sunni-Arab inhabitants, who know the militias’ reputation for killing suspected “collaborators”. 


The plan for retaking Mosul has been adapted from a well-thumbed manual. The liberation of Fallujah, which took less than four weeks in June, provides a template. The opening phase of the battle is essentially an ever-tightening encirclement operation intended to cut off the IS fighters inside the city from reinforcements or supplies and to seal off their escape routes west into Syria. 


The second phase will see Iraqi forces meeting the enemy at an increasing number of points around the edges of the city. IS positions in Mosul are already being pounded by French and American artillery. Micro drones capable of transmitting images from inside buildings are telling the gunners exactly where to aim. Once the position of IS fighters is known, say American military advisers, they can be quickly picked off by artillery or by coalition aircraft stacked in the skies above Mosul. 


The third phase of the operation will be led by Iraq’s elite counter-terrorism units, who will enter the city at different points to kill those IS fighters remaining. The final phase will see the introduction of other Iraqi forces, including police, to help in mopping-up operations, defuse booby traps and begin the task of restoring governance to the traumatised inhabitants. 

mopping-up operation:掃討作戦
booby traps:偽装爆弾

How smoothly things go will depend in large part on whether IS sees the need to go down fighting for propaganda purposes or whether it makes a tactical retreat to Syria, perhaps to conserve its strength for a last stand there. It may well decide to fight because retreat may not be possible. When fleeing IS convoys left Fallujah, they were an easy target for prowling coalition aircraft. Some strategists have argued for an escape corridor to be left open. 

convoys :車隊・護送部隊

Given the impossibility of defending an area as big as Mosul, Mr Knights expects IS fighters to fall back to a couple of places where they can sell their lives most dearly. One is likely to be the government centre in the west of Mosul; the other is almost certain to be the narrow streets of the old city, where superior firepower is least effective and the danger to civilians is highest. 

superior firepower:優れた火力 

That the Iraqi government will retake Mosul is not in doubt. But much else remains uncertain. The battle could be over in a few weeks, or it could drag on for months. As IS control begins to slip, many of the 1m or more civilians thought to be in the city may try to escape. Preparations for a big exodus have been made, but confidence in them is not high. 


In the slightly longer term, once the relief has worn off, much will depend on the confidence that Mosul’s citizens have in Baghdad’s willingness and ability to secure and rebuild their city. Strapped for cash by low oil prices and riven by sectarian divisions, the Iraqi government will need help from the international coalition. Sunni Arabs will want more of a voice within Iraq, and more power devolved from Baghdad. Lastly, even when IS has lost its territory in Iraq, it may still be able to wage guerrilla war. Unless the politics can be got right, the liberation of Mosul could mark the end of one horror and the beginning of something almost as bad. 

worn off:弱まる
something almost as bad:概して悪い何か



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