Rodrigo Duterteの性急な政策変更
今までのアメリカの忠実な同盟国だったフィリピンは中国陣営に移ってしまうのか？(2)

Yet it is not only Americans who lament the impetuousness of Mr Duterte’s tilt to China: many Filipinos, including senior officials, are worried sick. Jay Batongbacal of the University of the Philippines fears Mr Duterte "is squandering all the practical leverage that comes from being in alliance with the United States"—without knowing what assurances, in terms of sovereignty in the contested South China Sea, the Philippines will get in return. 

lament：失望する
impetuousness：性急・衝動的・せっかち
tilt：傾き
worried sick：ひどく心配している
squandering：無駄にする
leverage：影響力
assurances：確証
sovereignty：主権

Bide your time 

Bide your time：好機の到来を待つ 

It is a reckless approach, but not necessarily a lasting one. For the time being, China wishes to draw the Philippines into its camp. That is why it has not yet attempted to build the kind of military facilities on Scarborough Shoal that it has constructed on other reefs in the South China Sea and that many Western analysts had assumed were imminent. 

reckless：無謀な
lasting：永続的な
For the time being：さし当たって
imminent：今にも起こりそうな

But China will have to offer more than fishing rights to make any deal acceptable to Filipinos. Even the China-loving Mr Duterte has talked about leaping onto a jet ski to defend the Philippines’ interests in person if need be. So the Chinese idea of a "package deal" in which Chinese sovereignty over the Scarborough Shoal is acknowledged in return for fishing rights which Filipinos had anyway long enjoyed will be greeted as an insult back in the Philippines. 

leaping：飛びつく
in person：本人が直接に
if need be：必要とあれば
in return for：に対する見返りとして
greeted：反応する
insult：侮辱

America, in short, can be patient. The Philippines may yet return to its camp. If so, both sides will claim it never left. 

 in short：手短いに言うと

Duterteの中国への傾倒がどこまで続くのかはわらないが、漁業権だけでフィリピンはScarborough Shoalの主権を手放すとは思えない。そのうち、中国と決裂するかもしれないので、アメリカは気長にそれを待つといった記事だ。まあ、そうかもしれない。韓国と同様に、中華帝国の歴史を見れば、彼らが領土を手放すとは思えない。そうなると、どこかで、もっと激しい亀裂が生じるのだろう。日本もそこの部分をよく読んで、今回の来日に対応するべきだろう。

Wallonia is adamantly blocking the EU’s trade deal with Canada 
A tiny region of Belgium opposes trade for reasons that are hard to understand 
Oct 22nd 2016 | From the print edition 

Wallonia：ワロン（地域）、ワロニア◆連邦国家ベルギーを構成する地域の一つ。同国の南側約半分に当たり、5州から成る。大部分がフランス語圏、一部がドイツ語圏。
adamantly：断固として

ワロン地域は断固としてカナダとのEU貿易協定に反対している。

Bravely resisting the Canadian menace 
“HEY Canada, fuck you.” Within hours this tweet (the result of a hack) from the Belgian foreign minister’s account was replaced with a friendlier message: “keep calm and love Canada”. Yet his country’s actions are closer to the original. On October 14th the regional parliament of Wallonia voted to block the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a trade deal between the European Union and Canada. 

menace：脅威
CETA：２０１３年１０月、カナダとＥＵの間の包括的経済貿易協定（Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement: ＣＥＴＡ）の基本合意が発表された。これは、貿易自由化だけでなく投資や知的所有権などを含む非常に広範に亘る協定で、日本が交渉中の環太平洋経済連携協定（ＴＰＰ）ともよく似ている。カナダの国際戦略から見れば、ＣＥＴＡはカナダのアメリカへの過度の依存からの脱却を目指すものであり、米国・ＥＵ間での経済協定よりも先に結ぶべきものであり、大陸の反対側でのＴＰＰと対をなす協定でもある。



Twentieth-century trade deals slashed tariffs. Newer ones between rich countries, such as CETA, focus on cutting other barriers to trade. After seven years of haggling, European negotiators dream of European toys and electrical products being sold straight to Canadians, without having to go through a second round of health and safety checks. 

haggling：押し問答する

Coordinating standards with another country inevitably means surrendering a little sovereignty. This riles many Europeans, who worry that CETA will dilute environmental standards and labour laws; they suspect that new courts established by the treaty to settle investor disputes with governments will favour corporations over regulators. 

Coordinating：適合させる
investor ：Investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS 投資家と国家間の紛争処理) or investment court system (ICS) is a system through which individual companies can sue countries for alleged discriminatory practices.

But plans for such courts have already been reformed, notes Marietje Schaake, a liberal Dutch MEP. The latest proposals make them more independent and transparent. On October 18th Cecilia Malmstrom, the EU’s trade commissioner, wearily offered to add a “plain language” declaration to clarify the deal. 

MEP：a Member of the European Parliament.
independent：中立的な立場で
trade commissioner：貿易官
wearily：うんざりして
plain language：普通に話す言葉

CETA has other more traditional detractors who hate the fact that it also hacks away at 99% of customs duties between Canada and the EU. Wallonia boasts one cow for every three humans and its lavishly subsidised farmers are wary of cheap Canadian competition. Erwin Schopges, a Walloon dairy farmer who joined the protests outside parliament, says he already faces milk prices below his production costs. “We want to trade with Canada, but we would rather not abolish tariffs,” he says. 

detractors：批判的な人々
hacks：切りつける・取り除く
lavishly ：贅沢な
wary：警戒して

In any trade deal there are winners and losers: the former, more numerous; the latter, more passionate. The Belgian government may buy off its farmers, but even so more hurdles await. CETA must be ratified by 38 regional and national EU parliaments before it can be implemented fully. Mr Schopges says the protest in Wallonia was less lively than the one he attended in Hamburg a few weeks earlier; opposition in Germany and France could just as easily derail proceedings. 

numerous：多数からなる
passionate：怒りやすい＿熱狂的に
buy off ：金で片付ける
lively：活発な
proceedings：手続き
just as easily：しやすい



CETA would make Europe €5.8 billion a year richer, by one estimate. But the real danger of letting Wallonia derail it is the precedent it would set. With so many potential vetoes, says Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, it is hard to imagine the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (a much bigger deal between America and the EU) being passed. And as for Britain’s prospects after Brexit, Ms Malmstrom says: “if we can’t make (a deal) with Canada, I’m not sure we can make (one) with the UK.” 

precedent：先例
vetoes：拒否

水曜日。今日はこれまで。今、EUがカナダとだけの貿易協定であるCETAの提携でもめている。ましてや、アメリカを巻き込んだTTIPはもっと面倒だ。このCETAでもめていたら、今度はBrexitの対応は一体どうなるのだろうかといった記事だ。３８箇所からの代表がいるEU議会の承認はさも大変だろう。想像に難くない。このカナダとEUの自由貿易協定は破談になってしまったようです。

昨日は一日、研修資料の作成、提案書の作成、本も２時間書けた。だんだん愚妻は回復している。いいことだ。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

Rodrigo Duterte’s impetuous pivot 
Is the Philippines, until now a staunch American ally, falling into the Chinese camp? 
Oct 19th 2016 | Asia 

impetuous：激しい・せっかちな
pivot：政策変更
staunch：忠実な
camp：陣営

Rodrigo Duterteの性急な政策変更
今までのアメリカの忠実な同盟国だったフィリピンは中国陣営に移ってしまうのか？

EVEN in a year of extraordinary reversals, few would have expected it. In July China reacted with fury when an international tribunal upheld a complaint from the Philippines and c China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. This week it is rolling out the red carpet for the mercurial Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte. He is being feted in a four-day state visit, with 400-odd businessmen in tow. Rub your eyes: America’s strongest ally in South-East Asia appears to be plopping like a ripe mango into China’s hands. 

reversals：反転
upheld：支持する・擁護する
rubbished：ボロクソに言う
mercurial：気分が変わりやすい
roll out the red carpet for guests：give guests the red carpet treatment 客を丁重にもてなす.
feted：もてなしを受ける
odd：あまりの
in tow：従えて
plopping：ポトンと落ちる

 

Consider what Mr Duterte, in power since June, has said in recent weeks. He has branded Barack Obama a "son of a whore" for criticising his "kill them all" war on drug dealers and addicts, which has claimed thousands of lives, many of them innocent. He has demanded an end to joint naval patrols and to America’s assistance in the southern jungles of Mindanao, where American special forces advise Filipino troops fighting against Abu Sayyaf, a violent group linked to al-Qaeda. And he has questioned whether America would honour its treaty obligation to come to the Philippines’ aid if the archipelago were attacked. 

branded：烙印を押す
addicts：中毒者
claimed ：命を奪う
honour：履行する

What that means for the American "pivot" to Asia scarcely bears thinking about. But do the eyes deceive? American officials—from Admiral Harry Harris, commander in the Pacific, down—insist that all is dandy. Joint naval patrols continue, as does co-operation in Mindanao; and America still has five bases on Philippine soil. The close working relationship with Filipino counterparts, the Americans insist, is as strong as ever. The Filipinos, for their part, report no change of orders from the new chief. 

scarcely：ほとんど〜ない
bears：受け入れて対処する
thinking about：あれこれ考える
do the eyes deceive? ：something you say when you cannot believe what you see
down：下まで
dandy：Dandy means "fine" or "good" or "excellent". So " all is dandy" means that all is good.

Duterteの行なっていることは目の錯覚ではないのか。今まで通りにアメリカは対応していればいいのではないかと言う意味。

Yet Mr Duterte talks of China like a moonstruck lover. On the eve of his visit he told Xinhua, the Chinese news agency, that China’s generosity to poor countries was without reproach. China "deserves the kind of respect that [it] now enjoys...It’s only China that can help us." He has been at pains to point out that one of his own grandfathers was Chinese. Thrilled, the Chinese ambassador in Manila talks of "clouds fading away" and the sun rising to "shine beautifully on the new chapter of bilateral relations". 

moonstruck：恋愛で夢見ごごちの
reproach：非難　申し分ない
at pains to point out： 《be 〜》〜を指摘しようと苦心する［骨を折る・四苦八苦する］
Thrilled：ワクワクして

What is Mr Duterte up to? Bear in mind that development and growth are his priority—one reason for his sky-high popularity in a country with an entrenched plutocracy lording it over legions of urban and rural poor. But development needs capital, and the Philippines has been excluded from recent Chinese largesse showered around the rest of the region. Relations suffered in 2012 after China dislodged the Philippine navy from the Scarborough Shoal, which is just over 200km from the Philippines proper, within its exclusive economic zone, and almost 900km from China. Filipino businesses have struggled in China, while little Chinese investment has come to the Philippines. The tribunal’s ruling only made matters worse: afterwards, China told even its tourists to stay away. 

up to：何を企んでいるのか
Bear in mind：念頭におく
entrenched：変わることにない
plutocracy：財閥
legions：群衆
largesse ：寛大さ・過分の祝儀
dislodged：追い払う
proper：本土

The Philippines had been plucky in standing up to China. But it has paid a price. Now, the goodies that China is dangling look irresistible. Mr Duterte wants lots of infrastructure, particularly railways. China is offering cheap loans. He wants the country to export more. China is offering to reopen its markets to Philippine fruit. He wants help with the war on drugs. A Chinese businessman is building a big rehab centre. And he wants Filipino fishermen to be able to return to their traditional fishing grounds around the Scarborough Shoal. China has told Philippine officials that it is open to an accommodation. 

plucky：大胆な
standing up to：立ち向かう
goodies：素敵なもの
dangling：ちらつかせる
irresistible：たまらなく魅力的な
rehab ：rehabilitation
open to an accommodation：折り合いをつける

Perhaps America, in banking so much on its plucky ally, should have been more clear-eyed about the cost to the Philippines of standing up to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. Perhaps, too, it should not have assumed that all Filipino politicians have an instinctive allegiance to America. Although Filipinos are overwhelmingly pro-American, they are also patriotic. The American colonial period saw its share of atrocities, especially in Mindanao. 

banking：取引をする
instinctive：本能的に
allegiance：忠誠
overwhelmingly：圧倒的多数で

One colonial general mused that it might be necessary "to kill half the Filipinos in order that the remaining half of the population may be advanced to a higher plane of life". Mr Duterte himself says he was molested by an American priest as a child. The landed elite that he claims to be displacing achieved its ascendancy under American rule. And standing up for the little guy is part of his shtick. The insistence of his foreign secretary, Perfecto Yasay, that Filipinos will not be America’s "little brown brothers" does not go down too badly. 

mused：つぶやく
higher plane of life：より高い生活水準
molested ：性的ないたずらをする
landed：大地主の
displacing：追放する
ascendancy ：支配権・優位
shtick：十八番
insistence：主張
go down：悪くなる

火曜日。今日はこれまで。Duterteの対応にアメリカは苦慮している。フィリピンはアメリカ占領時代に多くの人が虐殺された。彼自身も牧師に性的な嫌がらせを受けたことがある。経済も停滞している。Scarborough Shoalも決着をつけなければならない。彼は今、政策の大転換をしようとしている。彼は米中を天秤にかけて、中国をひとまずとったのかもしれない。これは世界の誰にとっても青天の霹靂だ。一体どうなっていくのだろうか。日本は彼の政策変更についていけるのだろうか。

昨日は一日、研修資料の作成、提案資料の準備、明日のメルマガの準備を行なった。今までは会食を必ず毎日入れていたが、今後はやるべきことを整理しようと思っている。週７日間、１４時間仕事をしても終わらない。何かが間違っているからだ。昨晩も朝早くから遅くまで仕事に追われた。いいことではない。今日も同じ繰り返しだ。毎日の行動の中身を整理して、優先度をつけることは大事だ。ではまた明日。

That's pretty remarkable; after all, it has been years since the American economy has threatened to produce sustained inflation of 2% or more, and it certainly isn't red-lining now. Wage growth also remains tepid, and there are vulnerabilities galore across the global economy, from Brexiting Britain, to shaky European banks, to an unsteady Chinese economy. Despite all this, markets reckon the Fed will hike in December. 

remarkable：注目すべき
tepid：生ぬるい
galore：たくさんの
shaky ：よろめく
hike：引き上げる

I think the American economy could easily avoid a recession over the next four years given the right macroeconomic policy. But the right macroeconomic policy, especially when so much of the world is stuck with near-zero rates, is to err on the side of faster growth and above-target inflation. Given that it is harder now than in the past to offset a spate of bad news or a drag on growth blowing in from abroad, it makes sense to keep a stronger head of steam than one might otherwise choose. That is not the way the Fed sees it, unfortunately. As a result, I'm inclined to agree with the Journal's economists; America is more likely than not to fall into recession during the next presidential term. 

err on the side of：必要以上にしすぎる
spate：多くの
drag：妨げ
blowing in：不意にやって来る
inclined：したいと思って

Really? But wouldn't we see some sign of economic trouble brewing if that were the case? No, we wouldn't. That's fact number four. 

if that were the case：もしそうだとしたら

4) Recessions happen when you don't expect them. Or more accurately, you can't see them until they are right upon you. In the growth forecasts it makes every April, for example, the IMF has never once foreseen the onset of a recession in the next calendar year. Even in its October forecasts it only correctly anticipates a coming recession about half the time. 

onset：の始まり
correctly：正確に言えば
half the time：半分の時間・大抵は

So deep was the Great Recession that American workers have only just begun to enjoy significant benefits, in terms of rising real pay, from the ongoing expansion. It would be a tragedy for those gains to be cut short prematurely. A careless Fed might land the country, and the next president, in just such a mess. 

prematurely：早くして
land：打撃を与える

次の大統領の時にアメリカの経済が不況に入るかいなかははんとも言えないが、せっかくここまでの好景気をなんとか継続したい。インフレ率が目標を達成した後の政策が問題となるかもしれない。連邦制度準備理事会の出方がどうでるか次第だろう。

How Trump has slumped in battleground polls 
Oct 18th 2016, 12:06 BY I.K. 

どのようにしてトランプは論争の的である世論調査において落ち込んでいるのか。

IT WOULD have been unthinkable to question Utah’s political allegiances one year ago. The state last sent its vote to a Democratic candidate for president when Lyndon Johnson was in office—in 1964. But the publication, on October 7th, of a video from 2005, in which Mr Trump boasts about grabbing women’s genitals, may break the spell in the conservative western state. Recent polls show Mr Trump holding only a slim lead over his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton. 

allegiances：忠誠心・支持
break the spell：興奮を冷ます
slim：わずかな
 

With only six electoral-college votes on offer, Utah is less a deathblow to the Trump campaign than a disturbing signal. Recent polls show bad deficits in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado—states considered important for Mr Trump. The margins for Mrs Clinton, previously favourable but slim, have swelled since the tape’s release. 

 electoral-college：大統領選挙人団
on offer：受け入れて
deathblow：致命的な打撃
disturbing signal ：妨害信号
deficits：劣勢

Florida, the state most likely to decide the election, is showing a four-point preference for Mrs Clinton. Heavily populated, it is rich in delegates, with 29 of the 270 electoral-college votes needed for victory. The state leans slightly more Republican than the rest of the country. A loss in Florida for Mr Trump is likely to be followed with defeats in the more difficult terrain of New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Without Florida, Mr Trump’s chances of winning the presidency dwindle to 5%, reckons FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism outfit. 

terrain：地域

 
An analysis of Americans’ reactions to the video’s revelations done on behalf of The Economist by Crimson Hexagon, a social-media analytics firm, showed widespread revulsion at his remarks. Regardless of age, gender or region, the predominant sentiment of about 75%, who joined in a discussion of the video on Twitter, was one of disgust. The effect of the tape is likely to have been bolstered by claims, made by several women after the tape’s release, that Mr Trump had behaved as he had boasted. He has said that he hasn’t groped women. 

revelations：暴露
revulsion：嫌悪
predominant：支配的な
bolstered：促進する
behaved：行動する
groped：体を触る

In the case of a landslide Clinton win, Republican losses are likely to extend beyond the White House. As partisanship and polarisation have increased in America, fewer Americans split their tickets and vote for candidates of different parties. Only 4% of avowed Trump supporters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, polling data from YouGov shows. 

polarisation：分裂
split their tickets：他の党の候補者に投票する
avowed：自認する

Clinton followers are averse to Republicans in similar proportions. Betting-market odds that the Republicans lose control of the Senate have tracked Mr Trump’s polling slump, rising 28 percentage points in the last month and now standing at 72%. 

averse：反対して
Betting-market：賭博市場 
odds：賭け率
tracked：の後を追う

Mrs Clinton, for her part, has largely withdrawn from the campaign trail, voluntarily ceding the spotlight to her opponent’s regular self-immolations. It appears that her campaign is focused on running up the score now, spending millions in Indiana and Missouri, both of which favoured Mitt Romney by nearly 10% in 2012. It has also dispatched prominent surrogates like Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders along with $2m worth of funding to Arizona, historically an unfriendly land for Democrats. The latest poll in the state shows her with a 2% lead—within the margin of error, but it should have never been that close in the first place. 

withdrawn：身を引く
self-immolations：自滅
dispatched：派遣する
surrogates：代理人
in the first place：そもそも

月曜日。今日はこれまで。トランプの女性蔑視のビデオが流布してから一層、彼に対する支持率が落ち込んできている。彼が負けるというオッズは先月の２８％から７２％までなった。結果はこれからだが、どうなるのであろうか。

昨日はブログページは完全に修復できた。ホームページは使用するつもりはないのだが、Word Pressの更新はできるようにしておきたいのだが、変更するための機能が活用できない。あとは全部終了したので、ほっておいてもいいのだが。今週の研修資料の修正作業に入ることはできた。TPPなので、今までなんどもやってきているので、先週ほどではない。今日も一日、研修資料と提案資料に従事できそうだ。事務作業もたまっている。ではまた明日。

Will the Fed greet the next president with a recession? 
Oct 13th 2016, 19:02 BY R.A. | WASHINGTON 

greet：出迎える

連邦制度準備理事会は次期大統領を不況で出迎えるのであろうか？

IT WAS just a few months into the presidency of Barack Obama that America crept out of the Great Recession and into the current expansion. With just three months to go in his second term, Mr Obama seems likely to pass that expansion on to his successor. But what are they odds that she will make it through a four-year term without a brush with economic contraction? The Wall Street Journal polled 59 economists to get their view. They reckon there is a 60% chance of recession striking within the next four years. Is that a reasonable estimate? Let's consider a few facts about expansions and recessions. 

odds：可能性
brush：遭遇
contraction：収縮

 

1) This expansion is getting up there in years, by American standards... The recovery began in June of 2009, which means that we are currently in its 88 month. According to NBER, which maintains a list of historical recessions going back to the mid-19th century, the current expansion is the fourth longest on record. The third longest, at 92 months, was the great boom of the 1980s, which the Obama boom can surpass in March of next year. Then comes the 106-month expansion of the 1960s, and finally the Clinton boom of the 1990s, which lasted a full ten years. If it continues, the current expansion would become the longest in America's history in July of 2019, just over two years into the next presidential term. 

by American standards：アメリカの基準からすると
NBER：National Bureau of Economic Research 全米経済研究所◆URLhttp://www.nber.org/

2) But not necessarily by global standards. That's not quite right. A decade-long boom is still a long boom by global standards. It just also happens to be considerably shorter than the longest booms on record. A number of other rich countries have enjoyed expansions lasting much longer than ten years in their history. The Netherlands holds the record for longest expansion, at nearly 26 years, but Australia's current boom is closing in on the lead. 

closing in：悪くなってきている
on the lead：優位・主導権

3) Expansions do not die of old age. You might think they ought to, but they seem not to. That is, according to a recent analysis of postwar business cycles, expansions in their 80th month are no more likely to end in the next year than expansions in their 40th month. The mere fact of having been around longer does not make a boom more likely to end. 

die of old age：老衰で死ぬ

But end they do, so what's going on? Booms appear to meet three sorts of demise. The first is a shock that policy-makers fail to offset entirely. Crisis might break out somewhere in the world, triggering a financial panic or putting a chill on spending and investment. If central banks and governments do not respond quickly enough and powerfully enough, the shock becomes a recession. The second death is something like euthansia: a recession brought on (more or less) intentionally in order to bring an overheating economy back to earth. 

demise：終了
offset：補正する
chill：恐怖心
euthansia：安楽死(の処置)(mercy killing)
bring someone back to earth： （人）を夢から現実に呼び戻す、現実（の世界）に引き戻す

The classic example is the Volcker recession of the early 1980s. The third death is like the second, but accidental. Since the victory over inflation won in the early 1980s, recessions have invariably come at the end of central-bank tightening cycles; central bankers attempt to merely prevent an episode of overheating but end up turning the screw one too many times. 

Volcker recession：1980年代にはロナルド・レーガン大統領による減税・規制緩和を柱とした経済政策「レーガノミクス」や当時のFRB議長であるポール・ボルカーによる強力な金融引き締め政策によってインフレは終息した。ボルカーの「ディスインフレ」政策は1980年代のインフレを劇的に抑えた一方で、10%に迫る失業率を生み出した。 
invariably：変わることなく・決まって
episode：出来事
screw：圧力をかける

Some economists would say, not without some justification, that these are all actually the same variety of end: death by tight monetary policy, motivated at least in part by concerns about inflation. Think about the Great Recession, for example. It came at the end of a Fed tightening cycle, which almost certainly contributed to the severity of the housing crisis. It was as severe as it was because of the shock of the financial crisis; but, the Fed underresponded to the financial crisis because soaring oil prices in the summer of 2008 kept inflation fears alive. 

not without some justification；正当な根拠がないわけではないが・それなりの根拠があって
variety：様々な
severity：深刻さ
underresponded：十分に答えなかった

Whether one thinks the Fed was the arch-villain behind the Great Recession, or a hapless accomplice, or merely an ineffectual would-be rescuer, we nonetheless have a decent mental model for how the next recession will start. Some shock will probably play a role, policy will underrespond, and the decisive factor will be the vulnerability of an American economy kept from growing too explosively by a Fed hellbent on tightening. We learned this week that the Fed's decision not to raise rates in September was a very close shave indeed. 

arch-villain：大悪党
hapless：不運な
accomplice：共犯者
ineffectual：能力に欠ける
decent：ちゃんとした
hellbent：固く決心して
shave：極めて危ないところだ

日曜日。今日はこれまで。オバマの景気は長く続いていきたが、ここにきて不安要因が出てきている。今回の利上げの見送りもその一要因かもしれない。景気が悪くなるにはいくつかの要因があると言っている。経済のコントロールに失敗したり、インフィレを抑えようとして結果として不況を招いたりしてきた。連邦制度準備理事会の判断が次期大統領の景気に大きな影響を与えることになる。

昨日は海野塾があった。第2回目のホーチミンからの高橋講師の講義はうまく行った。ベトナムはネット環境がすこぶる良い。道路事情と一緒だ。午後のEdの講義も面白かった。欧米人のネゴシエーションスキルに我々は勝てるのだろうかという課題を提示してくれた。今日は朝から来週の研修テーマであるTPPにアメリカ人のスタッフと一緒に取り組む。今日はこの資料の作成と提案資料の作成、HP更新のためのWord Pressの不具合の修正をしないといけない。ドメインの再構築はほぼ完了することができた。問題は更新ができない。ではまた明日。

Not all those at Trump rallies are bigoted. But they are prepared to stand next to someone shouting chauvinist abuse or wearing a "Trump that bitch" T-shirt and conclude that if that’s what’s needed to defeat Mrs Clinton, then so be it. The best of Mr Trump’s supporters hope that, by letting a wrecking ball loose to demolish the slums and tenements of Washington politics, public life can be rebuilt—so that it represents real people, rather than elites and interest groups. When people conclude that politics is disgusting or absurd they lose faith in it. That usually makes things worse. bigoted: 偏屈な 
chauvinist: 優位偏見主義者
abuse：罵り
bitch: “That bitch” refers to Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton
wrecking ball：建物解体用の鉄球
loose：解き放つ
demolish：取り壊す
tenements：安アパート・共同住宅
politics：政策
real people：本来の人々
disgusting：許しがたい
absurd：不合理な
faith：信頼

If Mr Trump actually wins the election, Republicans will have to meet the expectations he has created—of protectionism, spending increases allied to tax cuts, hostility to foreigners and a retreat from decades of foreign policy. That would make America poorer, weaker and less secure. Meanwhile, the Republican Party would still need the support of those who have cheered on Mr Trump (see Lexington). Far from being renewed, politics would become even nastier and more brutal. 

allied：と結びついた
nastier：不快な

If Mr Trump loses, Mrs Clinton will begin her presidency with tens of millions of people believing that she ought to be in jail. Perhaps he will lose so comprehensively that he takes the Republican majorities in both chambers down with him. That would afford Mrs Clinton at least two years, before the next mid-term elections, during which she might push through an immigration reform, increase spending on infrastructure and change the balance on the Supreme Court. These would be big achievements, but something close to 40% of voters would feel they were being steamrollered by a hostile government. Politics could become yet more polarised. 

comprehensively：徹底的に
take others down with one： 〔自殺する人・破滅する人などが〕他人を道連れにする
afford：に２年を与えるだろう
hostile：反感を持った
steamrollered：力ずくで押し通す
polarised：二極化する・分裂する

Partly because Mrs Clinton is mistrusted and disliked, the more probable outcome in November is that she will be the next president but will face a House of Representatives controlled by Republicans—and perhaps a Senate, too. This is a recipe for furious, hate-filled gridlock. There would be more government shutdowns and perhaps even an attempt at impeachment. It would also mean yet more government by executive actions and regulation to get around Congress, feeding the widespread sense that Mrs Clinton is illegitimate. 

recipe：のもと・原因
furious：激怒した
gridlock：八方塞り状態・行き詰まり
executive action：これはexecutive orders（大統領令）を活用することを指し、たとえ法案として通らなくとも大統領の権限内でできる対策のこと。
get around：対処する
feeding：与える
illegitimate：違法な

Tied down and unpopular at home, Mrs Clinton would be weaker abroad as well. She could less easily take risks by, say, standing up for trade or robustly seeing off challenges to American power from China and Russia. America’s role in the world would shrink. Frustration and disillusion would grow. 

Tied：拘束される
robustly：断固として
seeing off：やっつける
disillusion：幻滅

The city on a hill 
Must it be this way? Once you start throwing mud in politics, it is very hard to stop. Yet, every so often, you get a glimpse of something better. When Todd Akin lost a winnable Senate seat in 2012, after haplessly trying to draw a distinction between "legitimate rape" and the not so legitimate sort, Republican candidates and political consultants took notice. 

The city on a hill：shining city on a hill 丘の上に輝く町◆米40代大統領Ronald Reaganがアメリカ国民にとって「帰るべき場所」はどこなのかとして示した一つのビジョン 
glimpse：チラッと見えること
haplessly ：不運な
distinction：区別
took notice：注目する

Such a realisation needs to strike home on a grand scale. Healthy politics is not gang warfare. It involves compromise, because to yield in some areas is to move forward in others. It is about antagonists settling on a plan, because to do nothing is the worst plan of all. It requires the insight that your opponent can be honourable and principled, however strongly you disagree. The 2016 election campaign has poured scorn on such ideas. All Americans are worse off as a result. 

grand scale：大規模に
gang warfare：暴力団同士の抗争
antagonists：敵対者
scorn：軽蔑

土曜日。今日はこれまで。今度はトランプが負けて、クリントンが大統領になった時のことを想定している。両院とも共和党が勝つだろう。となると大統領令まで出して、議会と対決しなければならない。クリントンは国内の問題に張り付きて、外交政策にまで手がまわらないだろう。 また、反対派が４０％もいるので、そうした批判が起こるだろう。そうはいっても、そうした対立は暴力団の抗争ではないのだから、お互いに譲歩しながらことを進めるべきだ。

昨日は朝からドメインの移行で大変だった。いつもの仲間と築地市場内の磯野家での会食は遅れてしまった。牡蠣ご飯だったが、食べてすぐに帰宅。ドメインの移行作業。午後は弁護士事務所への訪問。他の時間は提案書の作成とドメインの移し換え作業。結局、１１時過ぎまで作業。今日は海野塾があり、午前はホーチミンから高橋講師が孫子の講義。午後はEdがWestern negotiation styleの講義。今日も楽しみだ。ではまた明日。

ポンドと激怒 
Brexitはイギリスをもっと貧しく、もっとひどい目にあうようになっている。(2) 

And second, let me draw your attention to one very important word in that ultimate sentence: self-reliant. What is this "self"? The typical Briton will not become more self-reliant as a result of Brexit. The chap behind the bar at the pub will not suddenly find himself cobbling his own shoes and milling his own flour because of the vote to leave the EU. Mr Ip seems to intend the self, in this case, to be Britain. That may have been what voters intended; the assertion of the nation as the most important civic body is a disheartening development if so. And that might be the outcome, in part, of Brexit; trade volumes will probably fall a bit, and as Mr Ip notes Britons will spend less holiday time in Provence and more in Blackpool. Yet it’s also not quite right. Whether Britain is selling gilts to foreigners or turnips, it is still reliant on them. 

self-reliant：自立 
chap：やつ・男 
cobbling：靴を作る 
flour ：小麦粉 
assertion：主張 
civic：市民の 
disheartening：がっかりさせるような 
turnips：カブ・あほ 
reliant ：依存している 
gilts：優良証券 

The self at issue here is actually something different. It is a conservative sort of Englishness, which entails the rejection of London as well as of Brussels. And what is being purchased, it should be clear, is the ability to shut particular people out of Britain: those that are not enough like the community of selves on which the English intend to become more reliant. It is a vote against cosmopolitanism and multiculturalism. Nothing in the decline in sterling is going to make that adjustment less painful to those being shut out of the circle of British life. Neither should it make us optimistic that deglobalisation can occur without a great deal of accompanying ugliness. 

Englishness：イングランド人らしさ 
cosmopolitanism：世界主義 
multiculturalism：多文化主義 
ugliness：不穏な・険悪な 

Brexitをしようがしまいが、イギリス人は今まで自立しているから、多少EUとの取引が落ちるぐらいとしか考えていないとすればそれは間違いだ。証券の販売先は外国人に依存して言うのだ。イギリスから特定の人たちを締め出すと言うことは世界主義とか多文化主義からの離反であり、それ相当の覚悟が必要だと言う記事だ。 


The debasing of American politics 
Healthy democracies depend on unwritten rules. The Republican nominee has trampled all over them 
Oct 15th 2016 | From the print edition 

debasing：価値を落とす 
unwritten：暗黙の規則 
trampled：踏みにじる 

アメリカの政治の価値を落としている 
健全な民主主義は暗黙の規則に依存している。共和党の候補者はそうした規則の全てを踏みにじってきた。 

HOW do people learn to accept what they once found unacceptable? In 1927 Frederic Thrasher published a "natural history" of 1,313 gangs in Chicago. Each of them lived by a set of unwritten rules that had come to make sense to gang members but were still repellent to everyone else. So it is with Donald Trump and many of his supporters. By normalising attitudes that, before he came along, were publicly taboo, Mr Trump has taken a knuckle-duster to American political culture. 

repellent：反発を抱かせる 
normalising：正常化する 
knuckle-duster：メリケンサック 

 

The recording of him boasting about grabbing women "by the pussy", long before he was a candidate, was unpleasant enough. More worrying still has been the insistence by many Trump supporters that his behaviour was normal. So too his threat, issued in the second presidential debate, to have Hillary Clinton thrown into jail if he wins. In a more fragile democracy that sort of talk would foreshadow post-election violence. Mercifully, America is not about to riot on November 9th. But the reasons have less to do with the state’s power to enforce the letter of the law than with the unwritten rules that American democracy thrives on. It is these that Mr Trump is trampling over—and which Americans need to defend. 

boasting：自慢する 
pussy：女性器 
insistence：固執 
foreshadow：を予見する 
Mercifully：幸運にも 
trampling：踏みにじる 

If this seems exaggerated, consider what Mr Trump has introduced to political discourse this year: the idea that Muslims must be banned from entering the country; that a federal judge born of Mexican parents was unfit to preside over a case involving Mr Trump; that a reporter’s disability is ripe for mockery; that "crooked" Mrs Clinton must be watched lest she steal the election. Daniel Patrick Moynihan wrote that when many bad things happen at once, societies define deviancy down, until the list of what is unacceptable is short enough to be manageable. When parents wonder if a presidential debate is suitable for their children to watch, Mr Trump’s promise to build a wall on the Mexican border no longer seems quite so shocking. 

discourse：対話 
preside：取り仕切る 
ripe：機が熟した 
mockery：あざけり 
crooked：詐欺の・インチキの 
lest：しないように 
define：明確にする 
deviancy：逸脱 
short：短くする 

This way of doing politics is not new. Mr Trump is bringing into the mainstream a strain of for-profit bigotry and pessimism that believes life in the world’s richest, most powerful country at the beginning of the 21st century could not possibly get any worse (see Schumpeter). On this view, it is not specific policies that are at fault, but the system itself, which must be broken in order to solve America’s problems. 

for-profit：営利目的の 
bigotry ：偏見 
at fault：過失がある 

Mr Trump’s reality-television persona makes that proposition appear less alarming. It creates an ambiguity about how serious he is, and how seriously his audience needs to take him. With each outrage he has an iota of plausible deniability ("he’s just being Trump!"). With each sign that he is unfit to be head of state, some supporters can cling to an alternative reality ("I believe he’s a good man, really, and he’s a great businessman, so he’ll surely hire a great team"). 

persona：表向きの顔 
proposition：主張 
ambiguity：曖昧さ 
iota：ほんの少しだけ 

金曜日。今日はこれまで。トランプが以下の大統領として不適格な人物であるかを述べている。確かにここに挙げているように、彼は数多くの不適切は発言と行動をしてきている。それでも彼を支持している人たちが数多くいることに呆れているといった記事だ。 

昨日は妻と一緒に日医大千葉病院に行ってきた。遠いので、半日がかりだった。朝７時半の電車で行ったが、帰ってきたのは４時になっていた。さらに問題だったのはこのパソコンのバッテリーが１１時半に切れてしまったことだ。だから、そのあとの４時間は仕事ができなかった。結局、昨日はホームページとドメインの再セットアップがあったので、１２時になってしまった。最近は寝不足が続いている。今日の昼はいつもの会食と午後は弁護士事務所を訪問することになっている。この２日間は仕事ができないので、困っている。ではまた明日。