2016年12月

2016年12月31日

自由主義者は今年、ほとんどの論争で負けてしまった。彼らは負けたという感覚よりも元気付けられるべきだ。(2)

After so long in charge, liberals, of all people, should have seen the backlash coming. As a set of beliefs that emerged at the start of the 19th century to oppose both the despotism of absolute monarchy and the terror of revolution, liberalism warns that uninterrupted power corrupts. Privilege becomes self-perpetuating. Consensus stifles creativity and initiative. In an ever-shifting world, dispute and argument are not just inevitable; they are welcome because they lead to renewal. 

backlash:急激な逆戻り
beliefs :信念
despotism:専制政治
monarchy:君主制
uninterrupted:連続した
corrupt:堕落させる
self-perpetuating:永続的な
Consensus:一致した意見
stifles:を抑える
ever-shifting:絶え間無く変わる
renewal:復活・再生

What is more, liberals have something to offer societies struggling with change. In the 19th century, as today, old ways were being upended by relentless technological, economic, social and political forces. People yearned for order. The illiberal solution was to install someone with sufficient power to dictate what was best—by slowing change if they were conservative, or smashing authority if they were revolutionary. You can hear echoes of that in calls to “take back control”, as well as in the mouths of autocrats who, summoning an angry nationalism, promise to hold back the cosmopolitan tide. 

upended:ひっくり返す
yearned:に憧れる
summoning:奮い立たせる
cosmopolitan:国際的な

Liberals came up with a different answer. Rather than being concentrated, power should be dispersed, using the rule of law, political parties and competitive markets. Rather than putting citizens at the service of a mighty, protecting state, liberalism sees individuals as uniquely able to choose what is best for themselves. Rather than running the world through warfare and strife, countries should embrace trade and treaties. 

mighty:強国
protecting:保護する
uniquely:独自に

自由主義者は強大で保護主義の国家よりも彼らにとって何が一番いいのかを彼ら自身が選ぶことができるようにすることだと考えている。

Such ideas have imprinted themselves on the West—and, despite Mr Trump’s flirtation with protectionism, they will probably endure. But only if liberalism can deal with its other problem: the loss of faith in progress. Liberals believe that change is welcome because, on the whole, it is for the better. Sure enough, they can point to how global poverty, life expectancy, opportunity and peace are all improving, even allowing for strife in the Middle East. Indeed, for most people on Earth there has never been a better time to be alive. 

imprinted:刷り込む
flirtation:一時的関心
endure:トランプの保護主義に抵抗する
only if :の場合にのみ
loss of faith:トランプへの信頼の喪失
on the whole:あらゆる点を考慮すれば
Sure enough:予想した通り・確実に
alive:この世で

Large parts of the West, however, do not see it that way. For them, progress happens mainly to other people. Wealth does not spread itself, new technologies destroy jobs that never come back, an underclass is beyond help or redemption, and other cultures pose a threat—sometimes a violent one. 

underclass :底辺層
redemption:救済
pose:齎らす

If it is to thrive, liberalism must have an answer for the pessimists, too. Yet, during those decades in power, liberals’ solutions have been underwhelming. In the 19th century liberal reformers met change with universal education, a vast programme of public works and the first employment rights. Later, citizens got the vote, health care and a safety net. After the second world war, America built a global liberal order, using bodies such as the UN and the IMF to give form to its vision. 

underwhelming:印象を薄くする
universal education:普通教育

Nothing half so ambitious is coming from the West today. That must change. Liberals must explore the avenues that technology and social needs will open up. Power could be devolved from the state to cities, which act as laboratories for fresh policies. Politics might escape sterile partisanship using new forms of local democracy. The labyrinth of taxation and regulation could be rebuilt rationally. Society could transform education and work so that “college” is something you return to over several careers in brand new industries. The possibilities are as yet unimagined, but a liberal system, in which individual creativity, preferences and enterprise have full expression, is more likely to seize them than any other. 

Nothing half:半分どころではない・少しも〜ではない
devolved:譲りわたす
sterile:新鮮味のない
partisanship:盲目的支持
 labyrinth:迷路・難解なこと

The dream of reason
After 2016, is that dream still possible? Some perspective is in order. This newspaper believes that Brexit and a Trump presidency are likely to prove costly and harmful. We are worried about today’s mix of nationalism, corporatism and popular discontent. However, 2016 also represented a demand for change. Never forget liberals’ capacity for reinvention. Do not underestimate the scope for people, including even a Trump administration and post-Brexit Britain, to think and innovate their way out of trouble. The task is to harness that restless urge, while defending the tolerance and open-mindedness that are the foundation stones of a decent, liberal world. 

perspective:総体的な見方
corporatism:大企業の有する力や影響
reinvention:改革
defending:擁護する
decent:きちんとした

自由主義が保護主義に負けているということはない。BrexitもTrumpも自由主義の流れに逆らっているが、自由主義者はそれに負けてなならない。人々は愛国主義とか、大企業優先のやり方とか、人々の不満が輻輳しているが、現在の課題に対してよく考え、革新していかなければならない。それは自由主義の考えを持っているからできるのであって、保護主義であってはならない。

BrexitもMay首相がどこかで方向を変えるのだろうと思っている。今のままでは経済にしても政治にしてもいいことはない。Trump政権ができれば今までTrumpが言ってきた保護主義に基づいた政策はそう長くは続かない。確かに、我々は自由主義を標榜し、それに邁進していくことによってしか、世界の繁栄はない。中東問題もTrumpとPutinは積極的に協力して、今の戦乱を解消していくだろう。

日曜日。みなさん。あけましておめでとう。昨日は海野塾があった。昼食は殆どのお店が休みだったが、とんかつのお店だけ開いていたビデ、そこで昼食をとった。懇親会はいつもの中華料理屋はお休みだったので、サイゼリアで行った。週二回、忘年会をやっているようだった。今日は元旦だが、いつもと同じパターンだ。特に今年は日本の精神の講演を予定しているので、原稿の準備が大変だ。四書、老子、荘子をまとめなければならない。16セット600枚だ。気が遠くなりそうだ。今日はそれだけだ。研修資料のレビューのアポが入るかもしれない。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 22:13コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2016年12月30日

自由主義者は今年、ほとんどの論争で負けてしまった。彼らは負けたという感覚よりも元気付けられるべきだ。

Liberals lost most of the arguments this year. They should not feel defeated so much as invigorated Dec 24th 2016

Liberals:自由主義者
so much as invigorated:負けたという感覚よりも元気であるべきだ。

自由主義者は今年、ほとんどの論争で負けてしまった。彼らは負けたという感覚よりも元気付けられるべきだ。



FOR a certain kind of liberal, 2016 stands as a rebuke. If you believe, as The Economist does, in open economies and open societies, where the free exchange of goods, capital, people and ideas is encouraged and where universal freedoms are protected from state abuse by the rule of law, then this has been a year of setbacks. Not just over Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, but also the tragedy of Syria, abandoned to its suffering, and widespread support—in Hungary, Poland and beyond—for “illiberal democracy”. 

rebuke:叱責
abandoned:放棄する
suffering:苦難
illiberal:反自由主義の

As globalisation has become a slur, nationalism, and even authoritarianism, have flourished. In Turkey relief at the failure of a coup was overtaken by savage (and popular) reprisals. In the Philippines voters chose a president who not only deployed death squads but bragged about pulling the trigger. All the while Russia, which hacked Western democracy, and China, which just last week set out to taunt America by seizing one of its maritime drones, insist liberalism is merely a cover for Western expansion. 

slur:悪口・汚名
relief:安堵
savage:容赦のない
reprisals:報復行為
popular:広く行き渡った
squads:一団
bragged:自慢する
All the while :その間ずっと
taunt:嘲ける
cover:隠れ蓑

Faced with this litany, many liberals (of the free-market sort) have lost their nerve. Some have written epitaphs for the liberal order and issued warnings about the threat to democracy. Others argue that, with a timid tweak to immigration law or an extra tariff, life will simply return to normal. That is not good enough. The bitter harvest of 2016 has not suddenly destroyed liberalism’s claim to be the best way to confer dignity and bring about prosperity and equity. Rather than ducking the struggle of ideas, liberals should relish it. 

litany:連禱
sort:な人
nerve:怖気付く
epitaphs:墓碑銘
timid:臆病な
tweak:微調整
bitter:がっかりするような
harvest:収穫
confer :を授与する
equity:正義
ducking:回避する
relish:することに喜びを感じる

In the past quarter-century liberalism has had it too easy. Its dominance following Soviet communism’s collapse decayed into laziness and complacency. Amid growing inequality, society’s winners told themselves that they lived in a meritocracy—and that their success was therefore deserved. The experts recruited to help run large parts of the economy marvelled at their own brilliance. But ordinary people often saw wealth as a cover for privilege and expertise as disguised self-interest. 

decayed:腐敗する
laziness:怠惰
complacency:自己満足
meritocracy:実力主義
marvelled:と言うことに驚嘆する
brilliance:才能の素晴らしさ
expertise:専門知識
disguised:偽装した
self-interest:私利私欲

2016年は自由主義が負けた年だ。EUから撤退するBrexit、保護主義を掲げるTrumpの勝利、その苦悩を放置したシリアの悲劇、東欧の反自由主義。グローバリゼーションが悪者になっている。トルコのクーデター失敗の後の言論統制。ロシアや中国の西側への姑息な進出。こうしたことから自由主義者は自信を失ってきているが、そうではない。過去の四半世紀がうまく行き過ぎていた。社会の勝者が実力主義と称して、特権と専門知識を盾に富を蓄積してきた。

確かにそう言われてみれば、今年は反自由主義が横行した。なぜそうなったのか。トランプが勝利したのはこの最後のところで言っている金持ちがもっと金持ちになり、中間所得者層の多くが貧困層に転落して行ったからだ。フィリピンでもインドネシアでも同じで、今までのエスタブリッシュメントに対しての大衆の反抗だ。そうした人たちを守ることが、保護主義なのかというとそうではないだろう。そうした政策の破綻は目に見えてる。BrexitもTrumpも彼らの方向は変わっていくに違いない。今の方向では彼らの国民が損をするだけだ。

土曜日。昨日はChina Disparityのレビューが午後になった。午前は提案資料のトンデモなく大変な原稿作成。夜も同じ。今日は朝から海野塾がある。夜は懇親会もある。来年もよろしく。あっという間の一年でした。もともと家族が日本人でないので、正月はないのです。4日から研修が始まるので、提案資料の原稿とComfort Womanの追加資料とで大変だ。今年は年越しの仕事になりそうだ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 23:11コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

ノルマン人の支配が英国をどのように作り変えたのか? 英国はヨーロッパであることを拭い去ることはできない。(3)

The rapid commercialisation of the English economy had profound effects on workers. Slaves, a significant minority of the population before the invasion, were freed: in Essex, their number fell by a quarter in 1066-86. Lanfranc of Pavia, William’s appointee as archbishop of Canterbury, opposed the export of slaves, finds Mr Thomas; Christian thinkers tended to have “mild qualms” about slavery. By the 12th century, it had almost completely ended. 

commercialisation:商業化
qualms:一抹の不安

11世紀までイギリスに白人の奴隷がいたことは知らなかった。

Labour became more specialised, and more people became self-employed or worked for wages. The share of the population living in towns rose from 10% in 1086 to 15-20% by the turn of the 14th century (London’s population soared). Over 100 new towns were founded in 1100-1300; the population of England jumped from 2.25m to 6m. 

12世紀から14世紀の間に、労働が専門化し、自営業とか給与をもらう労働者が増加したとあリ、イギルスの人口も3倍になリ、600万人となった。

Though the country as a whole fared well, not every part of it did. The conquest was longer-lasting and more brutal in the north. People in places like Northumbria and York did not consider themselves English, let alone French (their allegiances were more with the Scots and Scandinavians). So they launched a series of rebellions shortly after the Normans took power. 

fared well:首尾よくやる
allegiances:忠誠心

William showed no mercy in crushing them. His campaigns came to be known as the “harrying of the north”. According to Orderic Vitalis, another chronicler, on his deathbed William recalled what he had done. “In mad fury I descended on the English of the north like a raging lion...Herds of sheep and cattle [were] slaughtered [and] I chastised a great multitude of men and women with the lash of starvation.” 

harrying:繰り返してし執拗に攻撃する
mad fury:憤慨して
descended:感情を襲う
rage:激怒
chastised:を激しく非難する
multitude:非常に多くの
lash:ムチ

According to Domesday Book, in 1066 estates in southern England were somewhat richer than northern ones. But with Brentry, the gap jumped: by 1086 southern estates were four times as wealthy. The scale of the destruction was astonishing. A third of manors in northern counties were marked as “waste”. In Yorkshire, the county hardest hit, 60% of manors were considered to be at least “partially waste”, while total wealth fell by 68%. 

destruction:破壊行為
waste:荒廃させる

The population of York, the city at the centre of the harrying, probably halved. In 1086, no part of the country north of present-day Birmingham had an income per household higher than the national average. The country grew more unequal: the Gini coefficient of English manors rose from 64 before the invasion to 71 after (a Gini coefficient of 100 would mark perfect inequality). In terms of average estate wealth, the richest county was seven times richer than the poorest in 1066, but 18 times richer in 1086. 

halved:半減する
present-day:この頃の

この当時、地域によって所得格差が18倍もあったということは信じがたい。

The north may always have been destined for relative poverty: it has poorer land and a worse climate; it is farther from markets. But economic history shows that long-ago events can leave lasting scars. William’s depradations could well explain, in part, the northern poverty that gives modern Britain Europe’s highest regional inequality. And, almost a millennium later, descendants of the conquerors still enjoy disproportionate privilege; Gregory Clark, an economist at the University of California, Davis, finds that students with Norman surnames from Domesday are still over-represented at the universities of Oxford and Cambridge. So it may not be surprising that the regions which suffered worst in the conquest were more likely to have voted to throw off the modern Norman yoke in the Brexit referendum. But expect no economic good to come from it. 

scars:傷
depradations?:depredations 破壊
disproportionate:不釣り合いな
yoke:くびき・支配

Williamsがイギリスを支配して、奴隷制度をやめ、経済は活性化した。しかし、スコットランドは彼に抵抗したため、彼はそコットランドを破壊した。そのため、その後の経済格差は甚だしいものがあった。未だにイギリスの北部が貧しく、経済が停滞しているのはこの歴史のせいだ。そして、Brexitを支持するのもそのためだ。

イギリスの歴史をこうして見てくると、色々知らないことがわかった。イギリスの奴隷制度がその当時あったということはそれ以前はその白人の奴隷を売買していたということだ。スコットランドがイングランドと比較して貧しいことと独立志向が高いこともわかった。20倍近くもの所得格差があったということだ。

金曜日。昨日は来年の研修の予定を立てた。来年5月に予定している中国での「1日MBA」のプログラムを検討した。あとは来年出版の本の修正。今日は朝から研修資料のChina Disparityのレビュー。午後からは提案した研修資料の作成。明日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 00:15コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2016年12月29日

ノルマン人の支配が英国をどのように作り変えたのか? 英国はヨーロッパであることを拭い去ることはできない。(2)

The best source for assessing the impact of the Norman conquest is the Domesday Book, a survey of English wealth commissioned by William in 1085. For 13,418 places under William’s rule, Domesday Book contains data both on who the owner of the estate was and how valuable it was as measured by how much “geld”, or land tax, it could yield in a year. For some counties, it also tallied the population, the amount of livestock and even the ploughs. Its thoroughness suggested it could have been used for a final reckoning on the day of judgment—hence the name. Its 2m words of Latin, originally inscribed on sheepskin parchment in black and red ink, were recently digitised by researchers at the University of Hull. 

Domesday Book:ドゥームズデイ・ブックは、イングランド王国を征服したウィリアム1世が行った検地の結果を記録した世界初の土地台帳の通称である。1085年に最初の台帳が作られた。 本来、ドゥームズデイ(Doomsday)とは、キリスト教における「最後の審判」のことで、全ての人々の行いを明らかにし罪を決定することから、12世紀ごろからこの台帳をドゥームズデイ・ブックと呼ぶようになった。つづりが変わっているのは、dome が「家」を意味するからであろう。 内容は単に土地の台帳だけでなく、家畜や財産など細かく調査し、課税の基本としたもので当時としては画期的だった。
commissioned:作成を依頼する
yield:もたらす・産出する
tallied:を記録する
livestock:家畜
ploughs:すき
day of judgment:最後の審判の日
hence:それゆえ、その名前がついた。
inscribed:刻みつける
parchment:ヤギの皮から精製した紙

Respondents to the survey were generally asked to give answers corresponding to three time periods: 1066, 1086 and an intermediate period shortly after 1066, which reflects when the manor was first granted to its existing owner. This makes it possible to perform a before-and-after analysis of the conquest. 

manor:領地



The invasion certainly caused damage in the short term. In Sussex, where William’s army landed, wealth fell by 40% as the Normans sought to assert control by destroying capital. From Hastings to London, estates fell in value wherever the Normans marched. One academic paper from 1898 suggested that certain manors in the counties around London were much less valuable by 1070 than they had been in 1066. Despite this initial damage, however, the conquest ended up helping the English economy. Wonks have long supposed that immigration tends to boost trade: newcomers are familiar with their home markets and like to export there. The Normans were invaders, not immigrants, but Edward Miller and John Hatcher of Cambridge University conclude that the “generations after 1066 saw a progressive expansion both of the scale and the value of...external commerce.” English wool, in particular, was popular on the continent. 

Wonks :オタク


manorial:領地の

Brentry also helped the financial system develop. Jews arrived at William’s invitation, if not command, and introduced a network of credit links between his new English lands and his French ones. Unhindered by Christian usury laws, Jews were the predominant lenders in England by the 13th century. The discovery of precious metals from central European mines also helped get credit going. Jews settled in towns where there was a significant mint. England was still a violently anti-Semitic place, though, and its Jews were expelled by the 14th century. 

Unhindered:妨害されていない
usury:高利貸し業
predominant:支配的な
mines:鉱山
mint:大量のお金
violently:ひどく
expelled:追い出される

The Normans took some policy decisions that would meet with the approval of modern economists: at a time of radical uncertainty, they ramped up infrastructure spending. Within 50 years every English cathedral church and most big abbeys had been razed to the ground, and rebuilt in a new continental style, says George Garnett of Oxford University. He points out that no English cathedral retains any masonry above ground which dates from before the conquest. 

radical:急進的な
ramped:増やす
abbeys:大修道院
razed:完全に破壊された
masonry :石造建築の技術

New castles and palaces came too. A book on churchbuilding published in 1979 documents a sharp increase in new projects in the 12th century, leading to an eventual peak of new starts around 1280. All these changes helped the economy along. Domesday Book suggests that, contrary to popular belief, the English economy had fully recovered by 1086. Data for some estates can be spotty: but a conservative reading of the book shows that the aggregate wealth of England barely changed in the two decades following Brentry. Taken at face value, total wealth actually increased. Of the 26 counties for which there are decent data, half actually rose in value. 

eventual:最終的な 
belief:一般に信じらているのとは反対に
spotty:ムラが多い
face value:額面通りに受け取ると
decent:かなりの

Things only got better. Real GDP growth in 1086-1300 was probably two to three times what it was in the pre-conquest period. GDP per person grew strongly, too, perhaps from £1.70 in 1086 (in 1688 prices) to £3.30 by 1300. Mr Thomas suggests that productivity may have improved. To fund the infrastructure heavier taxes had to be levied on peasants, which “forced them to work harder”. 

Things only got better:物事はきっと良くなる

“In mad fury I descended on the English of the north like a raging lion” People had more money, and they wanted to spend it. According to a paper by John Langdon and James Masschaele, prior to the 12th century only a very small number of fairs and markets can be documented. About 60 markets are mentioned in Domesday Book. But traders and suppliers bloomed as the economy expanded: around 350 markets existed by the end of the 12th century. 

fury:激怒
fairs:市 いち
bloomed:繁栄する

ノルマン人がイギリスを占領した時に一時的に経済はガタガタになったが、それもすぐに回復した。当時の台帳によれば結果としてGDPの成長率は2、3倍も伸びた。ユダヤ人も来たが、イギリス人は彼らを嫌い、結局追い出してしまった。こうして、ノルマン人がイギリスを征服したが、結果として、イギリスは発展することがでいた。

1000年も前にこうしたノルマン人とフランス人がイギリスを占領していたことは我々は知らない。またユダヤ人を追い出したことも知らない。こうした歴史をしらないと、イギリス人が誰なのかを理解することはできないだろう。日本のように単一民族ではないのだ。そうした時代背景はその国の政治経済外交を理解する上では極めて重要なことだ。

木曜日。昨日は海野塾があった。いつもとからない多忙な一日だった。今日は来年の水曜日海野塾の予定表を作成する。今までの予定の修正をする。あとは四月に出版する本の原稿修正。日本の精神の内容整理。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 11:27コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2016年12月28日

ノルマン人の支配が英国をどのように作り変えたのか? 英国はヨーロッパであることを拭い去ることはできない。

How Norman rule reshaped England
England is indelibly European
Dec 24th 2016 | BAYEUX

Norman:ノルマン人 a 10世紀に北部フランスのNormandyを征服し定住したスカンジナビア民族. b 1066年Englandを征服した北欧人とフランス人の混血民族
indelibly:いつまでも残る

ノルマン人の支配が英国をどのように作り変えたのか?
英国はヨーロッパであることを拭い去ることはできない。

THE Norman conquest of England, led exactly 950 years ago by William, Duke of Normandy (“the Conqueror”), was the single greatest political change England has ever seen. It was also very brutal. The Anglo-Saxon aristocracy was stripped of its assets, and many of its members suffered the humiliation of being forced to work on land they had once owned. Even today, conquest by the French is still a touchy subject in some circles. 

aristocracy:貴族政治国家
stripped:剥ぎ取る
humiliation:屈辱
conquest:征服
touchy :過敏な

Nigel Farage, the on-and-off leader of the UK Independence Party, is known to wear a tie depicting the Bayeux tapestry, a 70-metre long piece of embroidery depicting the event, to remind Britons of “the last time we were invaded and taken over”. The tapestry is peppered with severed limbs and heads of vanquished Englishmen. Other supporters of Brexit—Britain’s exit from the European Union—use the language of the conquest to describe the nation’s “domination” by faceless EU institutions. Academics have held similar opinions. “[F]rom the Englishman’s point of view, the Norman conquest was a catastrophe,” argued Rex Welldon Finn of Cambridge University in 1971. 

on-and-off:断続的な
depicting:描写する
Bayeux tapestry:バイユーのタペストリー(フランス語:Tapisserie de Bayeux)は、1066年のノルマン・コンクエスト(ノルマンディー公兼イングランド王ウィリアム1世によるイングランド征服)の物語の刺繍画である。長辺約70m(現存63.6m)、短辺約0.5mの亜麻(リネン)製の布に、毛糸で刺繍が施されており、ヘイスティングズの戦いのくだりまでが現存している。11世紀のフランスとイングランドにかかわる歴史的遺物であり、また当時の服装や武器、軍船、戦闘方法などを伝える貴重な史料でもある。 フランスはノルマンディー地方の都市バイユーにあるバイユー大聖堂に長く保管されていたが、近代の戦火による混乱の中を転々とした後、旧に復され、現在ではバイユー・タペストリー美術館 (Musee de la Tapisserie de Bayeux) に保管・展示されている。
embroidery:刺繍
peppered:散りばめられる
severed:切断する
limbs:手足
vanquished:征服する
faceless:顔が見えてこない
catastrophe:大惨事

But, while the blood and guts were horrifying, the conquest also did a lot of good. It transformed the English economy. Institutions, trade patterns and investment all improved. It brought some of the British Isles into European circles of trade (“Brentry”, if you will) and sparked a long economic boom in England which made the country comparatively rich. The conquest and its aftermath also set a wealthy south apart from a poor north, a geographical divide that continues to this day. From those tumultuous decades on, England was indelibly European—and a lot stronger for it. The Norman conquest made England. 

blood and guts:流血場面
horrifying:ゾッとするような
to this day:今日に至るまで
tumultuous:波乱に満ちた
indelibly:いつまでも残る

The reasons for the invasion were complex. Early in 1066 Edward the Confessor, then king of England, had died heirless, sparking a crisis of succession. His brother-in-law, Harold Godwinson, took over. But Harold’s claim to the throne was weak and he faced resistance, especially in the north of the country. William, Duke of Normandy, just across the English Channel, reckoned that he was the rightful heir: according to William of Poitiers, a chronicler, Edward had said that he wanted the young William to succeed him. 

Confessor:信者の懺悔を聞く司祭
heirless:後継のいない
resistance:反対
reckoned:だと考える
Poitiers:ポアチエ フランス地名
chronicler:年代記作者

The Bayeux tapestry shows what happened next. In September William invaded from France with an enormous army. At the Battle of Hastings, on the southern coast of England, Harold was killed and his body mutilated (one account describes how a Norman knight “liquefied his entrails with a spear”). William went on to be crowned on Christmas Day, 1066. 

mutilated:切断する
account:記述
liquefied:液化する
entrails:内蔵
spear:やり

He celebrated his coronation by going hunting and hawking, but then got down to business. The Anglo-Saxon system of government and economy was razed to the ground. The lands of over 4,000 English lords passed to fewer than 200 Norman and French barons. The English were removed from high governmental and ecclesiastical office. By 1073 only two English bishops were left, according to Hugh Thomas of the University of Miami. 

coronation:戴冠式
hawking:鷹狩りをする
got down:本腰を入れて取り組む
razed:完全に破壊された
lords :領主
ecclesiastical:聖職者の

1066年にイギリスはフランスに征服された。その際にすべてのイギルスの経済は洗いがえられ、その当時の王様は惨殺され、四千人いた領主は200人のノルマン人とフランス人の貴族に入れ替わった。そうした歴史が1000年前にあった。

我々はこうしたヨーロッパの歴史を知らない。イギリス人はヨーロッパ人と違うという認識を持っているがそうではなさそうだ。今のBrexitもそうした背景を意識していないと、きちんと理解できないだろう。

水曜日。昨日は元日立化成の武田さんとの会食。楽しいひと時だった。午後は弁護士事務所。空いている時間は研修資料の作成。何度見直しても、重複とか駄文が見つかる。本読みと本書き。本読みは慰安婦のHistory Wars。読み終わった。今日は海野塾。昼は娘と会食。水曜日海野塾は今年最後。土曜日海野塾は31日まである。水曜日海野塾は4日から。月曜日海野塾は11日から。ではまた明日。v

swingby_blog at 10:16コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2016年12月27日

トランプの基本方針 仕掛り中だ。(4)

But Obama, unlike Trump, applied an internationalist lens to his realist views. He wanted his allies to pay their share but was resolute in keeping the U.S. security umbrella over their heads. He viewed foreign trade as a means to build alliances and contain conflicts. Still, protectionism was already well underway during Obama's tenure. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the United States has led G-20 countries in carrying out discriminatory trade measures on selective industries (particularly metals), according to a report by Global Trade Alert. At the same time, Obama saw that the world was changing with technology and that old jobs would give way to advances in manufacturing. He preferred to think in longer horizons, at times to his own detriment: For Obama, the long-term impact of climate change was existential compared with the short-term threat posed by the Islamic State. 

resolute:断固とした
contain:抑制する
discriminatory:差別扱いをするような
detriment:不利益
existential:存在の

By contrast, Trump's realism is steeped in nationalism and tends to be more myopic in assessing threats. His solution to displaced American labor is to punish foreign trade partners rather than to retool the workforce to adapt to demographic and technological change. Under Trump, climate change concerns will take a back seat to the more immediate desires to ease regulations on business. Rather than play a restrained globalist role, the next president would sooner respect countries' rights to defend themselves, irrespective of the long-term consequences of undermining time-honored collective security arrangements. 

steeped:に満ちている
myopic:近視眼的な
threats:脅威
displaced:収入の道を断たれた
retool:を再編成する
restrained:節度ある
irrespective:に関わらず
time-honored:長年の
collective:総合的な

Though a departure from an already defunct two-state solution in Israel's favor acknowledges the current reality, it also risks further destabilizing the balance of power in the Middle East as Turkey continues its resurgence and multiple civil wars rage on. A short-term escalation with Beijing over trade and Taiwan could cost Washington a much bigger strategic discussion over China's attempts to achieve parity with the United States in numerous spheres, from cyberspace to the seas. 

defunct:機能停止した
resurgence:再燃
rage:激しく続く
achieve parity with:との武力均衡を達成する

Keeping the World on Its Toes
Perhaps the greatest difference between the Obama and Trump foreign policies lies in what may be Trump's biggest virtue: his unpredictability. Obama has been criticized as overly cautious in his foreign policy and thus too much of a known entity for U.S. adversaries. Trump, on the other hand, gives the impression that he is willing to throw caution to the wind and rely on instinct in shaping foreign policy. This matters immensely for U.S. allies and adversaries alike that have to be kept on their toes in developing their long-term strategy while avoiding the unexpected with the world's superpower. 

Keeping the World on Its Toes:世界を警戒させる
virtue:利点・長所
unpredictability:気まぐれ
overly:過度に
too much of a:度がすぎる
known entity: to decision-makers carries the implication that they will never need to consult with you because they'll always know what you would say
wind:一か八かに賭ける
matters:重要である
immensely:極めて

Regardless of who occupies the presidency, the United States' strong geopolitical foundation gives it options. As opposed to more vulnerable countries in less forgiving locales, the United States, buffered as it is by two vast oceans, can debate the merits of isolationism and intervention. George Kennan, a diplomat during the Cold War era, may have captured the immense power of the country's unpredictability best: 

As opposed to:とは対照的に
 forgiving:ゆったりした
locales:場面
captured:うまく表現する

"[American democracy is like] one of those prehistoric monsters with a body as long as this room and a brain the size of a pin: He lives there in his comfortable primeval mud and pays little attention to his environment; he is slow to wrath — in fact, you practically have to whack his tail off to make him aware that his interests are being disturbed; but, once he grasps this, he lays about him with such blind determination that he not only destroys his adversary but largely wrecks his native habitat." 

prehistoric:有史以前の
as long as:なのだから
room:場所
primeval:原始時代の
wrath:怒り
whack:叩き斬る
lays:激しく殴打する
wrecks:ダメにする
habitat:生息地

Aloofness in international affairs is a geopolitical luxury, but it cannot be taken for granted. That may be the basis for the Trump doctrine. 

Aloofness:無関心

オバマも2008年には保護主義も考えていた。ただ彼は短期的なISILの課題もさることながら気象変動のような長期的な視点でものを考えていた。それに比べて、トランプは外交政策において近視眼的であり、気まぐれな対応をしている。台湾への対応のように一か八かの賭けをするので、世界が彼の行動を警戒している。アメリカは2つの大洋に挟まれているので、孤立主義とか他国への干渉を大様に議論することができるのだろう。

トランプは国際的な物事にビジネスのように直感的な対応をしようとしているが、果たしてそうした行動に対して世界はどう対応していくのだろうか。世界の出来事はやっぱりこの方がいいとかこっちがまずいとかその場で判断していたら、とんでもないことになるだろう。彼にはそうしたところがある。長期的な視点とかグローバルな視点は持っていなさそうだ。政治に賭けが必要なときもあるが、博打場ではない。そうした意味で、かなりあぶなっかしい船出かもしれない。プーチンがうまくやっているので、トランプもうまくいくのかもしれない。

火曜日。昨日は1日、慰安婦の資料更新と本書き、本読みに終始した。今日の昼は元日立化成の武田さんと会食。午後は弁護士と打ち合わせ。空いた時間は昨日と一緒。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 10:09コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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