2017年02月

2017年02月28日

遺伝子編集、クローンそして子供を作る科学 セックスをしないで子供を作るやり方が増えている。そうしたことを受け入れるべきだと歴史が示唆している。

Gene editing, clones and the science of making babies
Ways of reproducing without sexual intercourse are multiplying. History suggests that they should be embraced
Feb 18th 2017

遺伝子編集、クローンそして子供を作る科学
セックスをしないで子供を作るやり方が増えている。そうしたことを受け入れるべきだと歴史が示唆している。



IT USED to be so simple. Girl met boy. Gametes were transferred through plumbing optimised by millions of years of evolution. Then, nine months later, part of that plumbing presented the finished product to the world. Now things are becoming a lot more complicated. A report published on February 14th by America’s National Academy of Sciences gives qualified support to research into gene-editing techniques so precise that genetic diseases like haemophilia and sickle-cell anaemia can be fixed before an embryo even starts to develop. 

Gametes:生殖細胞
plumbing:性器
optimised:最適化する
genetic:遺伝子による
haemophilia:血友病
sickle-cell anaemia:鎌状赤血球貧血 
embryo:胎芽

The idea of human cloning triggered a furore when, 20 years ago this week, Dolly the sheep was revealed to the world; much fuss about nothing, some would say, looking back. But other technological advances are making cloning humans steadily more feasible. Some are horrified at the prospect of people “playing God” with reproduction. Others, whose lives are blighted by childlessness or genetic disease, argue passionately for the right to alleviate suffering. Either way, the science is coming and society will have to work out what it thinks. 

furore:興奮
revealed :明らかになった
fuss about nothing:なんでもないことで大騒ぎをする
looking back:回顧する
prospect :可能性
reproduction:生殖作用
blighted:涸らす
alleviate:軽減する

Where have you been, my blue-eyed son?
The range of reproductive options has steadily widened. AID (artificial insemination by donor, which dates back to the 19th century) and IVF (in vitro fertilisation, first used in the 1970s) have become everyday techniques. So has ICSI, intracytoplasmic sperm injection, in which a sperm cell is physically inserted into an egg, bringing fatherhood to otherwise infertile men. Last year another practice was added—mitochondrial transplantation or, as the headlines would have it, three-parent children. The world may soon face the possibility of eggs and sperm made from putative parents’ body cells (probably their skin) rather than in their ovaries and testes. 

AID:非配偶者間人工授精
insemination:人工授精
IVF:体外受精
in vitro:試験管内の
fertilisation:受精
ICSI:卵細胞質内精子注入法 卵子に精子を人工的に注入すること。精子数が少ない男性の不妊治療法
infertile:生殖能力のない
fatherhood:父親であること
putative:とみなされる
ovaries:卵巣
testes:精巣

Such methods separate sexual intercourse from reproduction. Most of them bring the possibility of choosing which embryo will live, and which will die. At first they can seem bewildering—disgusting, even. But one thing experience has shown is that, in this area, disgust is not a good guide to policy. AID was treated by at least one American court as a species of adultery and its progeny deemed illegitimate in the eyes of the law. IVF led to anguish among some theologians about whether “test-tube” babies would have souls. 

separate:区別する
bewildering:戸惑わせる
disgusting:許しがたい
disgust:不快感
species:一種
adultery:不貞
progeny:子孫
illegitimate:非嫡出子
anguish:苦悩する

Disgust often goes along with dystopian alarm. Science-fiction versions of gene editing imagine, say, the creation of supermen and superwomen of great intelligence or physical prowess. When Dolly was announced the press was full of headlines about clone armies. In truth no one has the slightest clue how to create Ubermenschen even if they wanted to. Yet the record shows how fast reproductive science can progress. So it makes sense to think about the ethics of reproductive science even for outcomes that are not yet available.

dystopian:地獄郷
prowess:卓越した能力
Ubermenschen:superman

It helps to start with IVF and AID, which have made the journey from freakishness to familiarity. Both give healthy children to happy parents, who would otherwise have been alone. The same will no doubt prove true for mitochondrial transplants, which are intended to avoid rare but dangerous diseases that affect cellular energy production. 

freakishness:異様な
familiarity:親近感
transplants:移植
cellular energy production:細胞エネルギーの生成
参考:解糖系とミトコンドリア系
 私たちの体は、食べ物の栄養素や呼吸から得た酸素を細胞まで運び、活動エネルギーに変えることで生き続けています。人が呼吸し、食事をするのは、全身の60兆もの細胞にエネルギーの原料を送りこむためであり、こうした燃料をもとにした細胞内のエネルギー産生が生命活動の基礎になっているのです。

 そして、エネルギーの産生システムは、「解糖系」と「ミトコンドリア系」という2つのプロセスにわけることができます。わかりあやすくいえば、人間には細胞内に、性質の異なる2つのエネルギー工場があるのです。まず、解糖系についてですが、これは食べ物から得られる栄養素をエネルギーに変換するシステムです。

 原料になるのは主にブドウ糖(糖質)です。ただ、即効性がある分、一度に作り出せる量は決して多くありません。これに対してミトコンドリア系は、解糖系で分解された栄養素の加え、呼吸によって得られた酸素など、ほかの多くの要素も関わっています。

 細胞内のミトコンドリアという期間で栄養素を取り出し、酸素と結びつけ、水を作り出す過程で、解糖系とは比較にならない多量のエネルギーを生み出すことができます。生物はこうしたミトコンドリア系の膨大なエネルギーを獲得することで進化の切符を手に入れたわけですが、行程がとても複雑なため、瞬時にエネルギーが必要なときには、シンプルな解糖系が必要になります。
mitochondrial transplants:ミトコンドリア移植で妊娠成功 2016年08月30日 14時14分 ミトコンドリア移植で妊娠成功  不妊に悩む女性の卵巣から細胞のエネルギーを作り出す細胞内小器官「ミトコンドリア」を取り出し、体外受精の際に卵子に移植したところ、2人で妊娠に成功したと、大阪市の不妊治療クリニックが29日発表した。  この不妊治療は米国の企業が開発。ミトコンドリアの移植で、加齢で老化した卵子の質の改善を図るが、仕組みはよく分かっておらず、有効性や安全性を懸念する専門家もいる。海外では約270例以上行われ、約30人が出産に至ったとされる。昨年12月に日本産科婦人科学会が臨床研究としての実施を認めていた。

Happy parents and healthy children make a pretty good rule for thinking about any reproductive technology. A procedure’s safety is the central concern. Proving this is a high hurdle. Researchers are, wrongly in the eyes of some, allowed to experiment on human embryos when they consist of just a few cells. They cannot, though, experiment on human fetuses. Nor can they experiment easily on fetuses from humanity’s closest relatives, the great apes, since these animals are rare and often legally protected, too. So far, therefore, there has had to be a “leap of faith” when a technique that has been tested as far as is possible within the law’s bounds is used for real. That should continue, in order to avoid “freelance” operations outside reliable jurisdictions. This is not a theoretical concern. Although Britain developed mitochondrial transplants and was the first country to license them, the first couple known to have had such a transplant travelled from Jordan to Mexico to do so. 

fetuses:胎児
humanity:人類・人間
leap of faith: やみくも的な信仰、盲信、信頼に基づく賭け blind faithは無批判に信じること。「愚行」というニュアンスを持つ。leap of faithは証明できない事柄について、信じることを選択すること。「非論理的」などの否定的ニュアンスを持つ場合と、「信頼・信仰・思い切り」などの肯定的ニュアンスを持つ場合がある。
take a leap of faith: 大丈夫だ[何とかなる]と信じて思い切る 確実な保証のない事柄について、ひとまず信じてやってみる(または受け入れる)こと。結果的には成功・失敗のどちらにもなり得る。 〔決断などで〕論理を超えた判断[信じて思い切ること]が必要である
bounds:制限の範囲
freelance:フリーで働く

Defining the limits of what should be allowed is more slippery. But again, the test of happy parents and healthy children is the right one. Growing sperm and eggs from body cells is surely the least problematic new technique soon to be on offer. One advantage of this approach is that gay couples could have children related to both parents. But the law should insist that two people be involved. If one person tried to be both father and mother to a child, the resulting eggs and sperm would, without recourse to wholesale gene editing, combine to concentrate harmful mutations in what would amount to the ultimate form of inbreeding.

slippery:破滅へと導く危険な
problematic :問題の多い
without recourse:に頼ることなく
wholesale:大規模な
mutations:突然変異
inbreeding:近親交配

Gene editing and cloning involve more than parents’ happiness and children’s health. The first gene editing will eliminate genetic diseases in a way that now requires embryo selection—an advance many would applaud. Adults should be able to clone perfect copies of themselves, as an aspect of self-determination. But breeding babies with new traits and cloning other people raises questions of equality and of whether it is ever right to use other people’s tissues without their consent. 

applaud:賛同する
self-determination:自己決定
traits:特徴
tissues:細胞から構成される組織

A sense of identity
The questions will be legion. Should bereaved parents be able to clone a lost child? Or a widow her departed husband? Should the wealthy be able to pay for their children to be intelligent and diligent, if nobody else can afford to do so? 

legion:無数にある
bereaved:最近家族を亡くした

Commissions of experts will need to search for answers; and courts will need to apply the rules—to protect the interests of the unborn. They will be able to draw on precedents, such as identical twins, where society copes with clones perfectly well, or “saviour siblings”, selected using IVF to provide stem cells that can cure a critically ill older brother or sister. Any regime must be adaptable, because opinions change as people get used to new techniques. Going by the past, though, the risk is not of people rushing headlong to the reproductive extremes, but of holding back, and leaving people to suffer out of a misplaced sense of what feels right. 

precedents:先例
identical twins:一卵性双生児
saviour sibling: A child, conceived by selected IVF treatment, so as to have compatible tissue that could be used to treat an existing sick brother or sister
headlong:慌てて〜する
reproductive extremes:生殖の極端な手段
holding back:ためらう

遺伝子の操作がだんだん容易になってきたので、子供ができない人もいろいろな技術で子供ができるようになってきた。どこまでそれらの技術を認めるのかが問題だ。何が正しいのか、何が神を冒涜しないのかをきちんと考えて行う必要がある。できるからしてしまうと言うことは危険だ。

日本でもここに書いてあるようなミトコンドリア移植が成功している。だんだんクローンに近づいてきた。ドリーのヤギが生まれてから20年経ったが、韓国では犬や猫のクローンを受注生産しているようだ。北朝鮮のような国が人間のクローンを作りそうだ。そうなると確かにここで書いてあるように、世界が破滅してしまうのかもしれない。人工知能ですら、最近人間に近づきすぎてしまい、開発を一時ストップさせた記事を読んだ。こうした世界は確かに神への冒涜になってしまうかもしれない。

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。其の準備もある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 22:03コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年02月27日

Donald Trumpは中国の熱烈な願いを承諾する その「一つの中国政策」が戻る。誰か当惑したか?

Donald Trump grants China’s fervent wish
The “one-China” policy is back. Who blinked?
Feb 13th 2017 | China

Donald Trumpは中国の熱烈な願いを承諾する
その「一つの中国政策」が戻る。誰か当惑したか?



MODERATION and careful planning have not exactly been watchwords for the Trump administration so far. But the relationship between China and America seems important enough that, in dealing with it, America’s president has decided (for now) to eschew his usual penchant for shock, awe and improvisation. 

MODERATION:節度
watchwords:標語
eschew:悪いものを意識して避ける
penchant:強くて習慣的な嗜好
awe:畏怖
improvisation:即興で行うこと

During an “extremely cordial” phone call with Xi Jinping, his opposite number, on February 9th, Donald Trump agreed to honour his country’s long-standing “one-China policy”, according to the White House. It said Mr Trump made this commitment “at the request of President Xi”. China regards the policy—which it interprets as confirming its sovereign claim to Taiwan—as the basis for its relationship with the United States. Mr Xi had refused to talk to Mr Trump until the American president committed himself to it. 

cordial:友好的な
honour:敬意を表する・遵守する

Mr Trump’s decision to reassert what has been his country’s policy for almost 40 years (though the wording of it does not explicitly accept China’s sovereignty over Taiwan) was the culmination of a week of old-fashioned diplomacy far removed from government-by-tweet. On February 3rd Michael Flynn, Mr Trump’s national security adviser, telephoned China’s highest-ranking foreign-policy official, Yang Jiechi, to lay the groundwork for the two presidents’ call. The same day, James Mattis, America’s defence secretary, who was visiting Japan, said at a news conference that “at this time, we do not see any need for dramatic military moves at all.” China Daily, a state-owned newspaper, decided this remark “dispersed the clouds of war”—though the qualification “at this time” will hardly have gone unnoticed in Beijing. 

reassert:再び断言する
culmination:最高点
by tweet:ツイッターによる書き込み
groundwork:根回しをする
dispersed:雲を消散する
qualification:条件・留保
unnoticed:気付かれないままに

Back in Washington, news leaked out that Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, had moderated a threat he had made earlier against China’s claims in the South China Sea. At his Senate confirmation hearings, Mr Tillerson had said (in what seemed like a throwaway remark) that China’s “access” to islands it had built in that sea was “not going to be allowed”. This was widely interpreted as a warning that America would blockade them. But Mr Tillerson’s written answers on the subject were more nuanced, talking only of America being capable of denying access “if a contingency occurs”—a rather different sort of threat. 

throwaway:さりげない
blockade:封鎖する
nuanced:微妙な違いを与える

On China policy, therefore, Mr Trump appears to be listening to realists in his administration, not to bomb-throwers such as Peter Navarro, the head of the National Trade Council and the author of a book called “Death by China”. To the extent that his reassurance to Mr Xi reduced tension in the world’s most important bilateral relationship, the phone call reflected a certain caution in American foreign policy which augurs better for Asian security. 

realists:現実主義者 TillersonとかJames Mattis 

But China is likely to see it as a victory in a zero-sum game. Mr Trump’s support for the idea of “one China” reverses the view he took on December 11th when he told Fox News, “I don’t know why we have to be bound by a one-China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things.” It is possible, of course, that Mr Xi has made concessions to Mr Trump that have not been made public (on, say, trade or North Korea). But in the absence of those, it looks as if Mr Trump got nothing in return for taking the one-China policy off the table. He blinked first. 

bound:束縛される
public:公表する
blinked:目を瞬きをして抑える

To China’s government, this is likely to confirm that its preferred method of diplomacy works: that of issuing non-negotiable demands and repeating them until other countries come around. China is also likely to see Mr Trump’s about-turn as a sign of American weakness, rather than a resolution of policy uncertainty within his administration. The term “paper tiger”, once used by Mao to describe America, has made a striking comeback in Chinese descriptions of Mr Trump. Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University and an adviser to the government, told the New York Times that Mr Trump would be regarded as one, having “lost his first fight” with China’s leader. 

preferred:好ましい 
about-turn:180度の転換
resolution:解決策・決意
striking :顕著な

In contrast to America’ president, Mr Xi seems to bestride the world like a colossus. He was fawned on by politicians and businesspeople at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month. Last year he shrugged off a ruling against China by an international tribunal over claims in the South China Sea and persuaded the presidents of the Philippines and Malaysia to cosy up to his country. Mr Xi has a strong incentive to appear firm in his dealings with foreigners: in the run-up to a leadership reshuffle due by the end of this year, he cannot afford to show any flexibility that opponents might construe as weakness. 

bestride:に君臨する
colossus:巨人
fawned:媚びる
shrugged :無視する
ruling:判決
cosy:機嫌をとる・とり入る
dealings:取引
run-up:目前に控えて
reshuffle:内閣改造
construe:であると解釈する

But even though Mr Trump has changed his stance towards the one-China policy, this does not necessarily mean he will capitulate to China on other matters, nor that he and Mr Xi will be able to work together constructively. Almost immediately after the call between the two presidents, Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, got a red-carpet welcome in America, suggesting that Mr Trump sees his country’s alliance with Japan as a sort of counterweight to China. North Korea chose the same moment to carry out its first ballistic-missile test of the Trump presidency, reminding both China and America that the one-China policy is not the only issue confronting them. 

capitulate:抵抗を止める
counterweight:対抗勢力

The list of security-related disagreements between the two countries is long. They relate to everything from America’s deployment of a missile shield in South Korea, known as THAAD, to Japan’s claim to the Senkaku islands (which the Chinese call the Diaoyu) and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Nor is there any sign yet that Mr Trump is preparing to back away from a fight with China over trade, tariffs, market access and the like. His reassuring phone call to Mr Xi is more likely to mark a respite from tensions between America and China than an end to them. 

shield:盾
back away:手を引く
respite:小休止

トランプが習近平に対して一つの中国を認めたが、まだまだ、二国間の課題がたくさんある。トランプがこのように中国に対して譲歩したことによって、習近平は意を強くしているだろう。彼は今年、チャイナセプンの入れ替えがあるので、彼はこうした外交政策では譲歩できない。南シナ海の中国の軍事施設に対しても、トランプが選挙の時に言っていたように、排除することはしないと言っている。TillersonとかJames Mattisのような現実主義者を採用したことによって、Trumpはまともな外交政策をとるようになってきた。

Trumpだけであれば無茶苦茶な外交政策を継続したのかもしれないが、彼がまともな人たちを採用してきたので、そうした政策がまともになってきた。中国政府もそうしたことはよくわかっているだろう。中国の報道とか色々噂をするが、Trumpが弱腰になったわけではない。彼が周りの意見を聞いて行動しているだけだ。今ままで山積してる米中の外交課題はそのまままともな形で継続してくだろう。そう見てくると、もしかしたら、TPPも復活するかもしれない。

火曜日。今日は本書きの大詰めと研修資料の作成。本の方はだんだん形になってきた。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 23:26コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年02月26日

Donald Trumpはアメリカとオーストラリアの同盟をテストしている。 しかしオーストラリアはほとんど代替案を持っていない。

Donald Trump is testing Australia’s alliance with America
But Australia has few alternatives
Feb 11th 2017 | CANBERRA

Donald Trumpはアメリカとオーストラリアの同盟をテストしている。
しかしオーストラリアはほとんど代替案を持っていない。



AFTER Donald Trump’s victory in November, Malcolm Turnbull quickly congratulated him, having obtained Mr Trump’s telephone number from Greg Norman, the new president’s golfing buddy. Australia’s prime minister claimed a similar background to Mr Trump’s, as “businessmen who found our way into politics somewhat later in life”, and a shared “pragmatic approach” to solving problems. Another call, just two months later, has shattered this supposed solidarity. It has also prompted many Australians to question their country’s closest alliance. 

buddy:仲間
shattered:打ち砕く
solidarity:連帯感
prompted:きっかけを与える

On February 2nd the Washington Post published an account of the second call. Mr Turnbull raised a deal his government had struck with the administration of Barack Obama, in which America agreed to resettle refugees trying to reach Australia who had been diverted to Nauru and Papua New Guinea. Mr Turnbull later assured Australians that Mr Trump would “honour” the deal. But the leaked account differed. Mr Trump reportedly called it the “worst deal ever”, accused Australia of seeking to export the “next Boston bomber” and told Mr Turnbull that his was the “worst call by far” among his conversations with world leaders that day. 

account:話
struck:取引をする
diverted:変える
assured:保証する
honour:遵守する
differed:異なる
by far:はるかに・断然

Mr Turnbull is renowned for his own short fuse. Indeed, some colleagues see him as a “sophisticated” version of Mr Trump. Clashing with Mr Trump seems to have done him little political damage at home. But if Mr Trump says he will not accept the 1,250 refugees, many of whom are from Muslim countries, that could change. The camps where the refugees are being held are a constant source of diplomatic irritation and embarrassment; the government would dearly like to close them. One fear is that Mr Trump might ask for something in return, such as sending more troops to the Middle East, that would go down badly with many Australians. 

renowned:著名な
fuse:すぐカッとなる
sophisticated:垢抜けした
that could change:そのことは変えることはできるだろう。
irritation :苛立ち
embarrassment:困惑
go down:そのことは多くのオーストラリア人に不評になるだろう

The alliance with America is the centrepiece of Australia’s foreign policy. Indeed, it has strengthened in recent years, with America stationing troops in Darwin, in the far north. But China’s emergence as Australia’s biggest trading partner has prompted a debate about how to strike a balance in relations with the two countries, and Mr Trump’s election has intensified it. A poll last year by the Lowy Institute, a think-tank, found almost half of Australians thought their country should distance itself from America “if it elects a president like Donald Trump”. James Curran, a historian, argues in “Fighting with America”, a new book, that Australia should ditch “worn rhetoric” and “alarming complacency” about relying on America for its security, and look at the relationship afresh. Penny Wong, the shadow foreign minister, reckons uncertainties around the Trump administration’s Asia-Pacific policy mean the alliance could be at a “change point”. 

centrepiece:最も重要なもの
balance:バランスを図る
intensified:激しさを増した
ditch:捨てる
worn:使い古した
alarming:憂慮すべき
complacency:自己満足
afresh:新たに

Julie Bishop, the foreign minister, does not go so far. But the fact that China underpins Australia’s prosperity, through its demand for minerals, food and other goods, makes her question some of Mr Trump’s policies, especially the threat of trade barriers against China. She is “disappointed” that Mr Trump pulled out of the TPP, a planned free-trade pact of 12 Pacific countries. Ms Bishop does not rule out pushing on with the pact among the remaining 11 members, and says she would “welcome” interest from China in joining it. 

go so far:そこまでいかない
underpins:下から支える
rule out:できなくする

Australia’s options are limited. Michael Wesley of the Australian National University argues that, without its alliance with America, Australia would be a “totally different country”, having to spend far more on its own defence and even acquiring nuclear weapons. Policymakers seem intent instead on trying to keep America engaged—or that was the plan, at any rate, until Mr Turnbull’s ill-fated phone call. 

intent:決意して
at any rate:いずれにせよ
ill-fated:不運な

ターンブルがトランプとの電話会議で彼に嫌われたのだが、オーストラリアはアメリカとの関係を切ることはできない。確かに中国とは切っても切れない貿易の関係がある。TPPもオーストラリアのとっては大きな貿易における前進であった。かといって、アメリカとの関係を切ってしまったら、国防も全面的に変えなければならない。そうしたことは到底、オーストラリアにはできることではない。

この記事はターンブルが気性が激しいので、トランプと喧嘩してしまったということなのだろう。彼がトランプにどこかで謝るしかないようだ。アメリカの楯突くことはできない。

月曜日。今日は午後から研修資料のレビューがある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 22:22コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年02月25日

アメリカ。中国 そして 貿易戦争の危険 貿易の緊張が増すだろう。しかし壊滅的な貿易戦争は依然として回避することはできる。

America, China and the risk of a trade war
Trade tensions will mount, but a destructive trade war can still be averted
Jan 28th 2017

アメリカ。中国 そして 貿易戦争の危険
貿易の緊張が増すだろう。しかし壊滅的な貿易戦争は依然として回避することはできる。



DONALD TRUMP’S quest to protect American workers from cheating foreigners has begun. But in his first flurry of policy tweets and executive orders, China, his favourite bogeyman, was conspicuously absent. On the campaign trail he deplored China’s currency manipulation, accused it of flouting global trade rules and threatened a 45% tariff on its exports, all to cheering crowds. Now, the world is waiting to see how much of this he meant. 

quest:探求・追求
cheating:騙し取る
flurry:一陣の疾風
favourite:お気に入りの
bogeyman:おばけ・恐れられて嫌がる人
conspicuously:目だって
deplored:強く非難する
flouting:無視する

The promise to label China a currency manipulator has not been repeated. An optimistic interpretation is that Mr Trump has realised that the promise was based on an “alternative” fact. China is no longer squashing its currency to gain a competitive edge, but is instead propping it up. A pessimistic one is that Steven Mnuchin, his treasury secretary, who would do the labelling, is not yet confirmed by the Senate. 

squashing:を止める
propping:テコ入れをする
labelling:レッテルを張る
Steven Mnuchin:2017年2月13日、上院で財務長官への就任が正式に承認された。

Mr Trump certainly has the power to wreak trade havoc. A big blanket tariff would slice through supply chains, hurt American consumers and fly in the face of the global system of trade rules overseen by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). But, rather than blow up the world’s trading system, Mr Trump may yet decide to take on China within it. The White House website, without naming China, promises “to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal” to end trade abuses. 

havoc:貿易に大混乱をもたらす
slice:簡単にさっと切る
fly in the face of:を無視して行動する
overseen:監視する
take on:立ち向かっていく
disposal:連邦政府が自由にできる
abuses:乱用

In the process of being confirmed as Mr Trump’s commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross somewhat reassuringly said that he had learned the lessons of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which raised thousands of tariffs in the 1930s. (It “didn’t work very well, and it very likely wouldn’t work now”.) His own policy includes a threat to “punish” countries not playing by the rules. He suggested his department might start its own actions against foreign dumping, rather than leaving them to industry. Robert Lighthizer, Mr Trump’s proposed US trade representative (USTR) and a veteran trade lawyer, knows WTO law inside out, and will be keen to scrap in the courts. 

reassuringly :元気付ける・安心させる
by the rules:ルールに従って行動する
leaving:ダンピングをそのままにしておく
USTR:アメリカ通商代表部
scrap in the courts:裁判において戦う

A litigious approach to the Chinese would not mark a huge break from the past. Under Barack Obama the USTR challenged China 16 times, on issues from illegal taxes on American steel and cars to dumping and export quotas on rare earths that harmed American importers. Just this week a massive case accusing China of illegal agricultural subsidies, which was filed by the previous administration, kicked off. 

litigious:訴訟好きな
mark a huge break:大きな決別をする
massive case:非常に重い訴訟

Ramping up tensions still risks Chinese retaliation. When America imposed tariffs on surging imports of Chinese tyres in 2009, China started importing chicken’s feet from Argentina and Brazil instead of America. Possible targets for Chinese reprisals this time include American soyabeans and aircraft, which together make up a quarter of American exports to China. China would find it hard to replace its entire supply of American soyabeans. But Kenny Cain, a soyabean farmer from Indiana, worries that prices could plunge by a third if China were to shop elsewhere. Although China cannot yet make high-quality commercial airliners, it could divert purchases to Airbus, a European manufacturer. 

reprisals:報復
divert:変える


A second risk is that the WTO architecture crumbles under the pressure of new cases. Resources are already stretched and decisions delayed. Constrained by a budget cap and a limit of 640 employees, it has struggled to cope with an increased number of disputes in the past few years. 

architecture:構造
crumbles:弱体化する
stretched:逼迫している

A highly adversarial approach to trade could expose a more fundamental problem: “As written, the WTO rules are just not clear enough,” says Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Mr Trump is right that China has not always adhered to the spirit of global trade law. But he may find that even holding it to the letter of the law is easier said than done. For example, WTO law offers no watertight definition of a state-owned enterprise, so it is hard to identify and oppose subsidies from state-owned banks. 

adversarial:当事者による
adhered:固守する
holding:守らせる
letter of the law:法律の条文
watertight :つけいる隙のない

Mr Obama’s strategy for solving the problem was to craft a multilateral trade agreement that included definitions of state-owned enterprises, a section on currency manipulation and chapters on labour and environmental standards, all meant to protect American workers against “unfair” competition. Called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, it initially excluded China. But the hope was that China would one day have to accede, thereby accepting rules written in large measure by America. Mr Trump scrapped it this week. 

accede:加盟する

His strategy is clearly different. As long as he fights China on WTO rules, the world should avoid a trade war. Even if the WTO finds that American trade measures violate their rules, those rules set limits on the extent of retaliation allowed. Outside the WTO, all bets are off. 

トランプがアメリカの労働者を守るために、行動を起こしているが、まだ具体的に中国を責めていない。彼は選挙中に中国の為替操作に対する非難と45%を中国からの輸入品にかけると言っていた。そんなことをしてしまうとサプライチェーンが切れてしまう。また中国の輸出品に対して課税してしまうと報復されてしなうかもしれない。そうなると大豆とか航空機をアメリカが輸出できなくなる。これは大ごとだ。確かにWTOは弱体化しているが、それを外してしまうとこうした報復に対してアメリカは個別に争うしか手立てがなくなってしまう。中国に対してのこうした行動は慎重に扱うべきだろう。

トランプの今までの中国に対しての考えは未熟としか言いようがない。何も知らずに、言ってきた節がある。Mnuchinが財務長官になったので、USTRとまともな交渉をしていくだろう。そうでなければ、ここに書いてあるような稚拙な外交を行ってしまう。アメリカは今まで通り、中国とはその貿易において最大限の取引相手である。それを非難することは考えられない。外交、軍事はまた別の問題だ。

日曜日。今日は本書きと研修資料の作成だ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 23:45コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年02月24日

イギリスの消費ブームは終焉していく兆候を示している

Britain’s consumer boom shows signs of petering out
The spending spree that has kept the economy going since the Brexit referendum may be nearing its end Feb 1st 2017 | Britain

petering:次第に細くなって無くなる
spending spree:派手に買い物をする

イギリスの消費ブームは終焉していく兆候を示している
Brexitの国民投票以来経済を支えてきた派手に買い物をしてきた行動は終焉しつつあるようだ。



FOR the past seven months the British economy has defied the predictions of analysts, most of whom expected a recession following the Brexit vote in June. GDP grew by 2% in 2016, faster than in any other G7 country—and the economy did better in the second half than in the first. The unexpectedly strong performance is largely thanks to the efforts of households, which have been spending liberally. In the fourth quarter of 2016 the volume of retail sales excluding petrol was 6% higher than in the year before, the biggest rise since 2004. Nor is the weak pound preventing families from splurging on foreign holidays. But Britons’ freewheeling ways may not last much longer. 

defied:を不可能にする
liberally:気前よく
splurging:散財する

The fortunes of the economy rise and fall with households’ spending habits. In the years following the financial crisis of 2008-09, belts were tightened as people lost their jobs and real wages fell. But retail spending picked up from 2014. This was thanks to low unemployment and faster earnings growth. In 2011-13 real disposable household incomes shrank on average by 2% a year but in 2014-16 they grew by 3% a year. The median (after taxes and benefits) now stands at around £26,300 ($33,300). 

rise and fall:増減する
shrank:減少する
benefits:諸手当・給付金

With this in mind it is not surprising that consumer spending remained strong following the Brexit vote. The vote itself may even have spurred consumption. Half of voters plumped for Leave, after all, so they may be happier shoppers than before. Others look to have brought consumption forward, loading up on foreign goods before the weak pound causes prices to rise. The value of sales of drinks and tobacco, much of which is imported, jumped by 25% year on year in December. 

in mind:念頭におくと
spurred:に拍車をかける
plumped:投票する
look:について考える
brought consumption forward:消費を前倒しする
loading:買いだめする

But in recent months Britons’ desire to buy new iPods and sofas has outpaced their ability to pay for them. After the referendum, households indulged in unsecured borrowing, thanks in part to the Bank of England’s looser monetary policy. People now appear to have decided that with Brexit negotiations about to get under way and the attendant economic uncertainty, they should focus less on borrowing and more on repaying. On January 31st the Bank of England revealed that consumer-credit growth in December fell sharply, to £1bn from £1.9bn the month before. 

outpaced:を凌ぐ
indulged:夢中になる
unsecured:無担保の
attendant:付随する
repaying:返済する
consumer-credit:消費者信用

Rising prices will also cramp consumer spending. Inflation will near 3% by the end of the year. Food staples are getting dearer: those who gave up Marmite on their breakfast toast after it became more expensive last year will soon have nowhere to hide, after Weetabix warned that it too was considering a price rise. As the cost of essentials goes up, households will have less money left over for other things, making them feel poorer. Credit Suisse, a bank, reckons that consumer-spending growth will drop from 2.8% last year to 0.7% in 2017. 

cramp:を妨げる
staples:必需食品
dearer:高価に
Marmite:マーマイト 英国製イーストエキスのペースト。スープなどの料理の調味料としてまたはトーストに塗って食べる
Weetabix:イギリスで最も人気の朝食シリアル
essentials:必要不可欠なもの
reckons:だと計算する

This is worrying because until now consumers’ willingness to spend has helped to prop up an otherwise poorly supported economy. The government is continuing a grim programme of austerity, sucking away demand. Investment is weak by historical standards and slipping further as firms hold off on plans to expand their operations in post-Brexit Britain. Bank lending to non-financial firms fell by 1% in the fourth quarter. And despite the sharp drop in the value of sterling since June, net exports are hardly booming. If the consumer-spending spree comes to an end too, it is hard to see where growth will come from. 

poorly supported:事実の裏付けが不十分な
grim:厳格な
sucking:需要を吸い上げる 支出を抑えるという意味
slipping:低下する・悪化する
hold off:遅らせる

Brexitの前に、輸入物価が上がる前に消費者は買いだめしている。国内物価もBrexitによって上がっていくだろう。今は企業は投資を控えている。現在は消費動向が上をむいているがそれがいつまでも続かないだろう。いずれにしても今の消費ブームは続かないので、政府は緊縮財政を継続してくだろう。イギリス経済の先行きは明るいものではない。

EUとの交渉は明るいものではない。かと言って、アメリカのトランプとの交渉も同様だ。中国に対してもそう簡単には貿易が拡大はしないだろう。しばらくはイギリス経済は混迷するしかないようだ。その突破口が見えない。確かに、EUのオーバーヘッドが大きいのは障害だ。そう思っているのはイギリスだけではない。ビジネウsの恩恵はドイツが独り占めして来た。今年の選挙でフランスとイタリアの動向が気になる。それ次第でEU崩壊の危機が一挙に増すことになる。

土曜日。1日海野塾です。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 20:54コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

トランプの移民・難民の入国禁止を議会が撤回すべき5つの理由

JANUARY 28, 2017 8:46AM
Five Reasons Congress Should Repeal Trump’s Immigrant & Refugee Ban
By DAVID BIER SHARE

トランプの移民・難民の入国禁止を議会が撤回すべき5つの理由

President Trump signed an executive order yesterday that would ban all Syrian refugees and almost all refugees from all countries from entering the United States for six months, while cutting the overall annual limit for refugees in half and banning for at least 90 days all immigration from seven majority Muslim countries. It implies that this ban could continue indefinitely for certain countries. These policies will not improve national security and will undermine America’s efforts to combat Islamic extremism and terrorism around the world.

1) The order violates the law. Under the Immigration Act of 1965, the president may not refuse to give visas to immigrants coming to live in the United States permanently due to their nationality. The provision is unequivocal in stating that no person may “be discriminated against in the issuance of an immigrant visa because of the person’s race, sex, nationality, place of birth, or place of residence.” While this does not apply to temporary visitors or refugees, I have previously explained in detail why the president cannot legally enforce this order against immigrants who are sponsored by employers or family members in the United States. 

unequivocal:曖昧でない

その通りで、大統領令は法律違反をしている。

2) Refugees and immigrants from Muslim-majority countries are not a serious threat to Americans. The order would ban all people entering the United States from Iraq, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Libya, and Yemen, and yet no terrorist from these places has carried out a lethal attack in the United States. Indeed, no Libyans or Syrians have even been convicted for planning such an attack. Moreover, the likelihood of being killed by any refugee from any country is just 1 in 3.64 billion a year. This discrimination is arbitrary and cannot be rationally justified based on a assessment of the risk. It is worth remembering that German Jews were turned away on a similar pretense that they could be Nazi spies—only to be killed in death camps. 

convicted:有罪を宣告する
arbitrary :独断的な
pretense:口実
turned away:見捨てる

誰を受け入れるかは慎重にしなければならない。ここで言っているのは寛容すぎる。選別するべきだおる。

3) The order aids the Islamic State. ISIS has said that it wishes to “compel the Crusaders to actively destroy the gray zone themselves,” forcing Western Muslims to “either apostatize… or [emigrate] to the Islamic State and thereby escape persecution from the crusader governments and citizens.” They want this overreaction. The only thing keeping ISIS from imploding are its new recruits which makes winning the propaganda war critical. Accepting refugees deprives ISIS of human resources. The Caliphate’s main source of income is the people it extorts. One refugee told the Times. “ISIS would not let us leave. They said, ‘You are going to the infidels.’” What could be more important than making the “infidels” more popular than ISIS? 

compel:引き起こす
Crusaders:十字軍戦士
apostatize:離脱する
persecution:迫害
overreaction:過剰反応
imploding:内部崩壊する
deprives:ISISから人的資源を奪う
extorts:強要する
infidels:異教徒

この説明はどうかな。ちょっとこじつけっぽいね。

4) Muslim immigrants to the U.S. are reforming Islam. American Muslims are 81 percent first or second generation Americans who came from among the most socially illiberal countries in the world. Yet, they comprise the most socially liberal and tolerant Muslim in the world. In fact, during the most recent seven years when Muslim immigration was at its highest level, America’s Muslims grew increasingly socially tolerant of other religions and homosexuality. U.S. Muslim immigrants are spreading goodwill about America’s freedoms around the world. “When I talk to my family they ask, ‘How is the treatment of Americans,’ and I say ‘it’s wonderful,’” one Syrian refugee explained. U.S. immigration is creating a cohort of liberal Muslims who can confront radicalism worldwide. 

cohort :集団

ドイツの例を見ると必ずしもそうではない。今までは穏健かもしれないが、過激になる可能性は十分にある。EUの失敗はここになる。

5) America’s tradition of accepting refugees should be defended. Since World War II, the United States has accepted millions of refugees fleeing communism and totalitarianism around the world. The Roosevelt administration’s rejection of Jews fleeing the Holocaust was one of the more shameful acts of any American president. Rather than return to such a policy targeted at a new group of persecuted people, the United States should continue to accept humanitarian immigration, not because refugees can improve local economies—though they can—and not because they can provide tangible intelligence against ISIS—though they do—but because getting out of the way and allowing people to escape violence is the bare minimum of moral decency. 

America may have no moral duty to put out fires around the world, but it does have a moral duty not to block the fire exits. 

defended:擁護する
decency:品位
moral duty:道徳上の義務感
fire exits:非常口

その通りだ。ただ慎重に受け入れるべきだろう。この5つの難民。移民の受け入れるための理由だが、議論のあるところだ、カナダのように、きちんと受け入れる条件を明確にするべきだろう。闇雲に受け入れるとドイツの二の舞になってしまう。入れてしまってからではどうしようもないだろう。

金曜日。昼は久しぶりにアットストリームコンサルティング株式会社の平山さんと会食。午後は弁護士と打ち合わせ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 08:51コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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