2017年03月

2017年03月31日

Rex Tillersonは中国との関係において「歴史的な瞬間」についての話をする Donald Trumpは新しいアプローチをよく考えているのか?

Rex Tillerson talks of a “historic moment” in relations with China
Is Donald Trump mulling a new approach?
Mar 20th 2017 | Beijing

Rex Tillersonは中国との関係において「歴史的な瞬間」についての話をする
Donald Trumpは新しいアプローチをよく考えているのか?

mulling:熟考する


ARE China and America preparing some sort of grand deal, to put their relationship on a new footing? Rex Tillerson appeared to hint at this during his first visit to Beijing as America’s secretary of state on March 18th and 19th. Whether such a deal is really possible is a different matter. 

grand deal:壮大な取引
footing:新たな態勢で
appeared:と思われる
hint:ほのめかす

Before the visit, the State Department’s acting head of Asian affairs said the new administration had not devised a term encapsulating American policy towards Asia, but she suggested it may no longer be called a “pivot”. In an interview during his trip, Mr Tillerson said China and America were at “somewhat of a historic moment” in their relationship. He said they needed to have a “fresh conversation” about what would define it for the next 50 years. 

encapsulating:カプセルでものを包む
somewhat:幾分・ある程度まで
define:明確にする

Perhaps most tellingly, at a news conference with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, Mr Tillerson talked about basing the relationship on “non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect [and] win-win co-operation.” This is a Chinese formulation. Under Barack Obama, the Americans refused to adopt it because China uses the term “mutual respect” to imply that others should respect its “core interests” (such as domination of the South China Sea). Mr Tillerson’s use of the formula caused a backlash in Washington, DC. One Democratic adviser to the previous administration tweeted that it was “a big mistake”. China’s official media also noted it—approvingly. 

tellingly:自ずと
basing:基礎に置く
formulation:方針の策定・考えの明確な表現
backlash:政策に対する反感
approvingly:賛成の・満足そうに

The phraseology is associated with Xi Jinping, China’s president, who, at a summit in 2013, asked Mr Obama to agree to “a new type of major-country relations” based on the principles now being suggested by Mr Tillerson. The Obama administration did not respond. It is possible that the Trump administration might. 

phraseology:いいまわし・言葉遣い
associated:を公然と支持する

If it does, there are substantial obstacles to clear away first. For one thing, the State Department (like several other departments in Washington, DC) has only a skeleton staff. The official in charge of Asia is a holdover from the Obama team. For another, Mr Trump’s officials are continuing to push diametrically opposing policies. Take trade, which is central to the America-China relationship. Peter Navarro, the head of the National Trade Council, espouses protectionism and confrontation. Gary Cohn, the director of the National Economic Council, supports free trade and co-operation. 

clear away:天気が晴れる
skeleton:残骸
holdover:残留者
diametrically :全く正反対の政策
trade:貿易
espouses:支持する

Crucially, there are few signs that the traditional disagreements between the sides are becoming easier to manage. Before he arrived in Beijing, Mr Tillerson said that all options (including military force) would be on the table if North Korea persisted with its development of nuclear weapons. That country promptly raised the stakes further by testing a new high-thrust rocket for a ballistic missile. Mr Tillerson’s visit did not appear to narrow differences between China and America over how to deal with Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader. China wants America and South Korea to end their joint military exercises in exchange for a North Korean freeze of its nuclear and missile programmes. America has rejected the idea.

Crucially:決定的なことに
traditional:従来の
persisted:固執する

On the eve of Mr Tillerson’s departure, American media were filled with reports that the administration was preparing a big new arms sale to Taiwan, which is certain to incur China’s wrath. (Taiwan is paramount among its core interests.) And Axios, an American online newspaper, has reported that White House officials are preparing measures to punish Chinese trade practices in the car business: Chinese tariffs on imported cars are around ten times American levels. 

incur:を招く
wrath:猛烈な怒り
paramount :最重要の

Mr Trump has reportedly invited Mr Xi to his club at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, in early April. Mr Tillerson did not confirm when the meeting will take place. Perhaps they have too much to talk about before they can agree on a date.

Tillersonが北京に訪問した時に今までのオバマの政策とは違ったような話をしたようだ。南シナ海領有の核心的利益な利益を認めそうな内容のものだった。その一方で、台湾に武器供与するというニュースも流れている。これも中国の最重要の核心的利益だ。どっちが本音なのかまだわからない。習近平が4月に訪米する予定になっているが、その時のはっきりするだろう。

確かに、中国との貿易に制裁をかけると言っている一方で、中国とのそうした対立をやめて、相互の関係を強化しようというTillersonの動きもある。果たしでどっちなのかまだわからない。トランプは制裁したいのだろろうが、Tillersonは反対しているに違いない。その決着がこの4月に着くのだオルガ、トランプはTillersonのいうことを聞くだろう。彼は外交には音痴だからだ。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。今日から木元が久しぶりに参加だ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 19:58コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

この法律で一番損するのは彼を選んだ年齢層の高い、白人の有権者だろう。

Donald Trump’s healthcare bill falls into a death spiral
Big losers under the legislation will be the older, white voters who elected him
MARCH 15, 2017 by: Edward Luce FT

Donald Trumpの健康保険は致命的な状況だ。
この法律で一番損するのは彼を選んだ年齢層の高い、白人の有権者だろう。

death spiral: デススパイラル、死のスパイラル◆フィギュアスケートのペア種目における難度の高い演技の一つ 急降下


Presidents campaign in poetry and govern in prose, as the saying goes. In Donald Trump’s case, his pitch was hardly poetic. But it was easy to grasp. Mr Trump would make America great again through sheer force of will. This included abolishing Obamacare and replacing it with a healthcare system that would be cheaper, better and would cover every American. It turns out that in practice “Trumpcare” will do nearly the opposite. To judge by this badly drafted bill, Mr Trump is governing in gobbledegook. Either the legislation will fail in Congress, which would be a political disaster for Mr Trump, or it will pass, which would be a catastrophe. 

poetry:詩
prose:散文
gobbledegook:非難してお役所言葉

The irony is that Mr Trump already knows this. Having spent a lifetime naming things after himself, he has made it clear that he does not want his name associated with this healthcare bill. Anything but Trumpcare. Yet that is the right name for the bill. It is a personification of Mr Trump’s brand of politics. The bill’s most important feature is that it abolishes a law that is popularly named after his predecessor, Barack Obama. Opposition to Obamacare’s actual contents plays little part in the desire to replace it. Indeed, Mr Obama’s Affordable Care Act borrowed heavily from a 1990s plan created by the rightwing Heritage Foundation as a market-based alternative to “Hillarycare”, the failed bill devised by then first lady, Hillary Clinton. Likewise, Obamacare was slightly to the right of the bill that Mitt Romney, a former Republican presidential candidate, enacted as governor of Massachusetts. 

personification:具現・人格化
right:の右手に・の通りで

Since Obamacare drew on conservative thought, it is no wonder Republicans have had difficulty coming up with a viable alternative. Yet having described Obamacare as a jobs-killing, socialist takeover of the US economy for the past seven years, they had to try. Their bluff has been called. 

bluff:はったり
called:であると考えられる

The bill’s second Trumpian element is its upwardly redistributive effects. It would cut taxes on the top 2 per cent of Americans by $885bn over the next decade and cut spending on the poorest Americans by almost exactly the same amount. As a result, there would be 24m fewer Americans with health insurance by 2026 according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. A disproportionate share of those losing their insurance would be older, white Americans who voted Trump. This too is a classic Trumpian bait and switch. He promised something radically different to what he is delivering. The elites get a tax cut. The poor will lose protection. 

upwardly:経済的に上昇志向の
redistributive:再分配する
bait:古典的な囮戦術 

Then there is the bill’s thoughtlessness. Much like the “Muslim ban” on issuing visas to six Islamic countries, or the U-turns on China, Nato and other issues, Mr Trump clearly had no grasp of the substance. The policy was Mr Trump himself. Details would be worked out later. Now we know the details, the absence of thinking is glaring. Trumpcare has little to do with healthcare and everything to do with fiscal redistribution. The bill is so badly drawn up that nearly every US healthcare lobby, including those representing doctors, insurers, retired people and hospitals, is opposed to it. It takes skill for a Republican president to unite business against his plans. Chief executives know the cost of throwing millions of people off insurance will be borne by taxpayers and employers. 

substance:本質的な内容
glaring:問題が明らかな
skill :熟練を必要とする
borne:耐える
Chief executives:州知事などの行政長官

To be sure, there are serious problems with Obamacare. Mr Obama should have included tort reform in the bill, which would have capped medical liability for doctors. He should have imposed a stiffer penalty on those who refuse to take out insurance, to make sure healthier Americans broadened the risk pool and lowered premiums. Likewise, he should have created a nationwide exchange so that people could shop across state borders. But improving the system is not the aim of Mr Trump’s bill. When his supporters realise they are being left by the wayside, his poll numbers will suffer. Mr Trump’s approval rating is already below 40 per cent. 

tort:不法行為がらみの
medical liability:医師賠償責任
stiffer:とても厳しい
risk pool:Health insurance risk pools are special programs created by state legislatures to provide a safety net for the "medically uninsurable" population. These are people who have been denied health insurance coverage because of a pre-existing health condition, or who can only access private coverage that is restricted or has extremely high rates.
wayside:脇に追いやられて取り残される

Mr Obama devoted most of his first 18 months in office to healthcare reform. Many thought he was wasting his capital. Yet the bill brought 20m into the system and took America a step closer to universal coverage. It also slowed the rate of US healthcare inflation. The backlash cost him Democratic control of Congress in his first midterm election. The irony is that abolishing Obamacare could cost Mr Trump Republican control of Congress next year. 

universal:全員の

Mr Trump now faces one of two disasters. The least bad is that Republicans reject the bill. It would be in their interests to do so. Far from making America great again, Trumpcare would exacerbate its worst feature. 

exacerbate:悪化させる

今回のオバマケアに対しての対応策が共和党に否定されたので、トランプは窮地に立っている。それも当然で、彼を支持してきている白人の高齢者に対して費用を付加する法案になっているからだ。オバマケアは問題もあるところも多いが、今回の法案はとんでもなくひどいものだ。トランプも知っていたのだろうが、一体どういうつもりなのだろうか。

彼はAmerica Firstと言ってかっこいいことを言ってきたが、内容は何も考えていなかった。だから何をするにも、言ったことと実行が伴っていない。どうも彼は長続きしそうにないな。あとは減税とか軍事の強化、インフラ投資、NAFTAの見直しなどが目白押しだが、大丈夫かな。

金曜日。今日は三井化学の松崎さんが上海に行ってしまうので、その会食がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 06:29コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年03月29日

世界の経済は同時に起こっている急激な景気の高揚を享受している。 過去の10年は経済の夜明けもどきに騙されてきた。 今回は本当に違うように思う。

The global economy enjoys a synchronised upswing
The past decade has been marked by a series of false economic dawns. This time really does feel different
Mar 18th 2017

世界の経済は同時に起こっている急激な景気の高揚を享受している。
過去の10年は経済の夜明けもどきに騙されてきた。
今回は本当に違うように思う。

synchronised:同時に起こる
upswing:急激な上昇
marked:特徴付ける・示す
false:偽の・一時的な
dawn:夜明け



ECONOMIC and political cycles have a habit of being out of sync. Just ask George Bush senior, who lost the presidential election in 1992 because voters blamed him for the recent recession. Or Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, booted out by German voters in 2005 after imposing painful reforms, only to see Angela Merkel reap the rewards. 

sync:同調しないで
reap:を得た

Today, almost ten years after the most severe financial crisis since the Depression, a broad-based economic upswing is at last under way. In America, Europe, Asia and the emerging markets, for the first time since a brief rebound in 2010, all the burners are firing at once. 

burners:コンロのバーナー

But the political mood is sour. A populist rebellion, nurtured by years of sluggish growth, is still spreading. Globalisation is out of favour. An economic nationalist sits in the White House. This week all eyes were on Dutch elections featuring Geert Wilders, a Dutch Islamophobic ideologue, just one of many European malcontents.

sour:満足のいかない
rebellion:反乱
nurtured:助長する
out of favour:人気を失って
featuring:重要な役割を演ずる
ideologue:教条主義者・イデオロギー信奉者
malcontents:不平分子

This dissonance is dangerous. If populist politicians win credit for a more buoyant economy, their policies will gain credence, with potentially devastating effects. As a long-awaited upswing lifts spirits and spreads confidence, the big question is: what lies behind it? 

dissonance:不協和音
buoyant:上昇傾向にある
credence:信頼を得る
devastating:破壊的な
spirits:元気付ける

All together now
The past decade has been marked by false dawns, in which optimism at the start of a year has been undone—whether by the euro crisis, wobbles in emerging markets, the collapse of the oil price or fears of a meltdown in China. America’s economy has kept growing, but always into a headwind. A year ago, the Federal Reserve had expected to raise interest rates four times in 2016. Global frailties put paid to that.

undone:ダメになって
wobbles:ぐらつく
headwind:向かい風
frailties:もろさ
put paid:打ち砕く

Now things are different. This week the Fed raised rates for the second time in three months—thanks partly to the vigour of the American economy, but also because of growth everywhere else. Fears about Chinese overcapacity, and of a yuan devaluation, have receded. In February factory-gate inflation was close to a nine-year high. In Japan in the fourth quarter capital expenditure grew at its fastest rate in three years. The euro area has been gathering speed since 2015. The European Commission’s economic-sentiment index is at its highest since 2011; euro-zone unemployment is at its lowest since 2009. 

vigour:活気
factory-gate:価格が工場渡しの
Economic sentiment indicator Index: The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a composite indicator made up of five sectoral confidence indicators with different weights: Industrial confidence indicator, Services confidence indicator, Consumer confidence indicator, Construction confidence indicator Retail trade confidence indicator. Confidence indicators are arithmetic means of seasonally adjusted balances of answers to a selection of questions closely related to the reference variable they are supposed to track (e.g. industrial production for the industrial confidence indicator). Surveys are defined within the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. The economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is calculated as an index with mean value of 100 and standard deviation of 10 over a fixed standardised sample period. Data are compiled according to the Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community.

The bellwethers of global activity look sprightly, too. In February South Korea, a proxy for world trade, notched up export growth above 20%. Taiwanese manufacturers have posted 12 consecutive months of expansion. Even in places inured to recession the worst is over. The Brazilian economy has been shrinking for eight quarters but, with inflation expectations tamed, interest rates are now falling. Brazil and Russia are likely to add to global GDP this year, not subtract from it. The Institute of International Finance reckons that in January the developing world hit its fastest monthly rate of growth since 2011. 

bellwethers:先行指標
sprightly:老人が若々しい
proxy:代わりとなるもの
notched:打ち立てる
inured:困難になれる
tamed:気力を抑える

This is not to say the world economy is back to normal. Oil prices fell by 10% in the week to March 15th on renewed fears of oversupply; a sustained fall would hurt the economies of producers more than it would benefit consumers. China’s build-up of debt is of enduring concern. Productivity growth in the rich world remains weak. Outside America, wages are still growing slowly. And in America, surging business confidence has yet to translate into surging investment. 

enduring:長期間続く

Entrenching the recovery calls for a delicate balancing-act. As inflation expectations rise, central banks will have to weigh the pressure to tighten policy against the risk that, if they go too fast, bond markets and borrowers will suffer. Europe is especially vulnerable, because the European Central Bank is reaching the legal limits of the bond-buying programme it has used to keep money cheap in weak economies. 

Entrenching:を確立する
balancing-act:対立する両者を喜ばせる行為
cheap:政策金利を低くする

The biggest risk, though, is the lessons politicians draw. Donald Trump is singing his own praises after good job and confidence numbers. It is true that the stockmarket and business sentiment have been fired up by promises of deregulation and a fiscal boost. But Mr Trump’s claims to have magically jump-started job creation are sheer braggadocio. The American economy has added jobs for 77 months in a row. 

praises:賞賛
magically:魔法のように
braggadocio:口先だけの自慢

No Keynes, no gains
Most important, the upswing has nothing to do with Mr Trump’s “America First” economic nationalism. If anything, the global upswing vindicates the experts that today’s populists often decry. Economists have long argued that recoveries from financial crashes take a long time: research into 100 banking crises by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University suggests that, on average, incomes get back to pre-crisis levels only after eight long years. Most economists also argue that the best way to recover after a debt crisis is to clean up balance-sheets quickly, keep monetary policy loose and apply fiscal stimulus wherever prudently possible. 

If anything:むしろそれどころか
vindicates:の正当さを証明する
decry:強く非難する

Today’s recovery validates that prescription. The Fed pinned interest rates to the floor until full employment was in sight. The ECB’s bond-buying programme has kept borrowing costs in crisis-prone countries tolerable, though Europe’s misplaced emphasis on austerity, recently relaxed, made the job harder. In Japan rises in VAT have scuppered previous recoveries; this time the government wisely deferred an increase until at least 2019. 

validates:の正当性を立証する
prescription:処方箋
to the floor:議案を会議にかける
in sight:すぐ起こりそうで
prone:しがちな
tolerable:なんとか受け入れられる
misplaced:信頼を間違って与える
scuppered:台無しにする

The tussle over who created the recovery is about more than bragging rights. An endorsement for populist economics would favour insurgent parties in countries like France, where the far-right Marine Le Pen is standing for president. It would also favour the wrong policies. Mr Trump’s proposed tax cuts would pump up the economy that now least needs support—and complicate the Fed’s task. 

tussle:格闘
bragging:得意げに話す権利
endorsement:支持
insurgent:反乱を起こしている
complicate:こじらせる

Fortified by misplaced belief in their own world view, the administration’s protectionists might urge Mr Trump to rip up the infrastructure of globalisation (bypassing the World Trade Organisation in pursuing grievances against China, say), risking a trade war. A fiscal splurge at home and a stronger dollar would widen America’s trade deficit, which may strengthen their hand. Populists deserve no credit for the upsurge. But they could yet snuff it out. 

Fortified:元気にする
rip:引き裂く
splurge:散財
strengthen their hand:立場を有利にする
upsurge:急激な高まり
no credit:評価に値しない
snuff:消滅させる

世界の景気が色々な指標を見ていくと上昇傾向にあり、景気が回復して来ている。しかしながら、ポピュリストの右翼であるオランダのGeert WildersとかフランスのMarine Le Penの動きが気になる。彼らが力を持ったら、せっかくのこの景気が台無しになってしまう。トランプの減税政策もピントが合っていない。America Firstなんて言ってるようじゃあ、話にならない。

なかなかの辛辣な意見だ。まともなことを言っている。やっと景気が回復して来そうなところに、ヨーロッパの右翼の動きが気になるところだ。Geert Wildersは心配したほど表を伸ばさなかった。あとはフランスのMarine Le Penの動きがどうなるか心配だ。いちばんの懸念はアメリカの保護主義だ。このままではせっかくの世界の景気回復の足を引っ張るかもしれない。困ったものだ。

木曜日。今日も1日本書きだ。今回はこの一週間で本が書けてしまいそうだ。ではまた明日。



swingby_blog at 23:18コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

一つの中国政策とはなんだ。 ほとんど何も意味していないが、多くのことを成し遂げてしまう注意深書かれたでっち上げ

What is the one-China policy?
A carefully worded fudge that means very little but accomplishes a lot
Mar 14th 2017by J.M.

一つの中国政策とはなんだ。
ほとんど何も意味していないが、多くのことを成し遂げてしまう注意深書かれたでっち上げ



“THERE is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is part of China,” declared China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, at a news conference in Beijing on March 8th. That is not quite the way that Taiwan sees it. At least, Taiwan does not accept that it is part of the People’s Republic of China, with its capital in Beijing. So why then does America say it upholds a “one-China policy”? And why were Taiwanese officials relieved when Donald Trump, having earlier challenged the “one China” notion, expressed support for it in a phone call with his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, in February? 

upholds:支持する
relieved :安心する

It is hard to argue that Taiwan is anything other than a separate country. The island has its own, democratically elected, president. It has its own laws and its own armed forces. But its official name is the Republic of China (ROC). It has a notional claim to the area that is now described as the People’s Republic. That is a legacy of the Chinese civil war, which resulted in the overthrow of the ROC by Mao Zedong in 1949. Its defeated government fled to the Chinese province of Taiwan, where it continued to call itself the government of all China. Since then there have been, in effect, two Chinas, both claiming the same territory (unlike the People’s Republic, the ROC also includes Mongolia within its theoretical borders, but it treats it as a different country). 

anything other than:別々の国家であること以外は議論し難い
notional:現実的でない
overthrow:崩壊

The government in Beijing, however, abhors the idea of two Chinas. It upholds what it calls a “one-China principle”: that it alone represents China, and Taiwan is part of that (Communist-run) China. This presented a problem in the 1970s, when America wanted to establish diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic and seek its help in the cold war against the Soviet Union. The Communists wanted America to accept its one-China principle, but America did not want to turn its back entirely on capitalist Taiwan, which it had hitherto recognised as the rightful China. 

abhors:道義的理由で嫌悪する
hitherto :今まで
rightful:法的に正しい

So it devised a “one-China policy”, which was simply to acknowledge that both sides of the Taiwan Strait recognised the existence of only one China (their own). The policy did not clarify which side had the right to rule Taiwan. It was a carefully worded fudge, which the Communists accepted. As a result, America and the People’s Republic forged a relationship that eventually allowed China’s economy to boom (and others, including America and Taiwan, to benefit from that, too). 

devised:考え出す
forged:築く

Many people in Taiwan are now sceptical about the one-China idea. They want the island to be separate from the mainland forever. But they are also fearful of provoking the Communists. China’s military power has grown enormously in recent years. If America were to abandon its one-China policy, and acknowledge Taiwan’s independence, there is a considerable risk that Communist China would attack the island and that America, feeling obliged to defend it, would be dragged into a war. Hence no government was sorry when Mr Trump decided to tell Mr Xi that America still believed in one China. Taiwan will only hope that the one China in question is not just the People’s Republic. 

sorry:気の毒に思う

トランプが台湾の蔡総統に電話したので、中国が怒ったことに端を発している。アメリカはかってロシアとの冷戦の最中に、中国との国交を結ぶために、台湾を中国に一部だと認めた経緯がある。しかし、1976年に台湾と台湾関係法を結んでいて、未だに武器を供与している。そもそも台湾自体は国家の体をなしていて、中国の一部というのもおかしな話である。

今の状況が継続すればいつまでもそのままだろう。アメリカが一つの中国を表明しても、中国は台湾を攻めることはできない。アメリカがそれを阻止するだろう。だから、台湾は今のままである。

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 06:22コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年03月27日

共和党は健康保険市場をどのように変更しようとしているのか。 この記事はオバマケアを抜本的に改革しようとしている共和党の計画の2部作のうちの2番目のものだ。

How Republicans want to change the health-insurance market
This is the second of a two-part explainer on Republican plans to overhaul Obamacare. 
Yesterday we examined proposals for Medicaid Mar 14th 2017by H.C. 

共和党は健康保険市場をどのように変更しようとしているのか。
この記事はオバマケアを抜本的に改革しようとしている共和党の計画の2部作のうちの2番目のものだ。昨日、我々はメディケイド(低所得者・身体障害者向け医療制度)のための提案書を検討した。



MOST Americans of working age get health insurance from their employers. But many—such as the self-employed, the unemployed and those working for small firms—must buy it for themselves. Before the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, this market did not function well. Healthy people could get cheap coverage, but if they fell chronically ill, insurers found it easy to boot them off their plans or limit their coverage. Obamacare made the market work better, at a cost to some buyers and to taxpayers. Now Republicans want to overhaul it again, with the American Health Care Act (AHCA). What would they do to it, and why? 

chronically:慢性的な
boot:追い出す

Obamacare’s market has many different cogs. The most popular—which Republicans would keep—is a requirement that insurers sell people insurance even if they are already sickly. That drives up premiums, which risks driving healthy people from the market. Accordingly, the “individual mandate” requires that everyone has to buy insurance or pay a penalty. At the same time, a thicket of regulation guarantees minimum standards of coverage, to stop insurers designing skimpy plans that attract only healthy buyers. 

cogs:歯車
premiums:保険料・割増料金
driving:追い出す
mandate:義務付け
thicket:錯綜・大量で込み入ったもの
skimpy:量が不十分な

To facilitate sales, the law established “exchanges”, government-run marketplaces where such people could shop around for insurance. Finally, to make care affordable, the law offers tax credits to those with incomes beneath 400% of the poverty line ($47,550 in 2017 for an individual) to help them pay their premiums. The help any given buyer gets is pegged to the prices she faces, which vary by age and location. Extra money helps the poorest buyers pay their out-of-pocket costs. 

exchanges:取引所
affordable:手頃な価格の
tax credits:税額免除
out-of-pocket:建て替えの

Republicans have spent years promising to tear down most of this edifice. But without 60 votes in the Senate, they can get at only bits of it. As a result, the AHCA leaves many of Obamacare’s rules intact. But, crucially, the bill gets rid of the individual mandate. In its stead, anyone who goes without insurance for any period would have to pay 30% more in premiums, for one year, if they return to the market. The AHCA also radically overhauls the subsidies available through the exchanges. From 2020 tax credits would vary only by age, not income or geography (although they would taper off at high incomes). At the same time, subsidies for out-of-pocket costs would disappear entirely. 

edifice:複雑な体系・大建造物
intact:そっくりそのままで
crucially:極めて重大なことだが
taper:徐々に少なくなる

If the AHCA passes in its current form, many of the 10m Americans who currently get subsidised insurance will no longer be able to afford it, unless prices fall dramatically. In places where premiums are high, the cuts to tax credits will be steep. In Alaska the average tax credit will fall by over 70%, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, a think-tank. Older buyers will be particularly badly affected, given insurers’ newfound freedom to charge them more. A 64-year-old earning $26,500 can currently expect to pay $1,700 for coverage, after tax-credits. 

afford:与える
newfound:新しく得た

Official projections show that soaring, to $14,600 by 2026, under the new law. Prices should fall for the young, but probably not enough to keep plans within reach for everyone. Another worry is that the replacement for the individual mandate is weak. Premiums are expected to rise 15-20% in 2018 and 2019 as more healthy people go without coverage. If states use grants from Washington to shore up the market, premiums should start to fall in 2020. But if they were to continue to rise, the AHCA’s tax credits, unlike Obamacare’s, would not go up in tandem. More healthy people would leave the market. Republicans claim that Obamacare is already in a “death spiral”. Under the worst-case scenario, the AHCA would be sure to hasten it. 

grants:補助金
shore:補強する・支える
tandem:相前後して

この記事はオバマケアに代わってトランプが推奨しているAmerican Health Care Act (AHCA)のことを書いているが、いい記事だ。なぜ議会で否決されたのがよくわかる。65歳上の年収26500ドルの低所得者がオバマケアでは1700ドルの費用で健康保険に入れたのが。新しい制度では2026年には14600ドルになってしまう。どう考えても馬鹿げている。補助金も様々な形で考えられていたものがほとんど廃止されてしまう。共和党はオバマケアは死に体だと言っているが、今度の提案した制度はさらに拍車をかけてダメになりそうだ。

なぜそうなったのかはオバマケアそのものが政府の財政に負担がかかりすぎているからだ。そのため補助金を削減すれば当然、健康保険制度は国民に不利になる。健康な人は入らない。トランプが大きくつまずいたのはこれが最初だが、そんなことは中を見れば誰にでもわかる。彼はバカではないが、なぜそんなとんでもない法案を採決しようとしたのだろうか。今まで、選挙の時によく検討しないで、ただ反対してきたのではないのだろうか。

火曜日。今日も1日本書きだ。最近は会食を控えている。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:54コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年03月26日

北朝鮮の脅威はもはや笑い事ではない。 金正恩もしくは彼のエスカレートしている攻撃的な行動をどう扱っていいのかだれにもわからない。

The threat from North Korea is no laughing matter
No one knows how to handle Kim Jong Un or his escalating belligerence
MARCH 15, 2017 by: Roula Khalaf

北朝鮮の脅威はもはや笑い事ではない。
金正恩もしくは彼のエスカレートしている攻撃的な行動をどう扱っていいのかだれにもわからない。



Soon after Donald Trump’s inauguration, a joke made the rounds on Twitter, picturing a laughing, spiky-haired Kim Jong Un.
“I no longer craziest leader,” screamed the headline.
It was brilliantly funny — for a moment. Since then, the North Korean dictator has proceeded to show that he remains unchallenged for the title. He has taunted his neighbours with new ballistic missile tests and staged an extraordinary plot to assassinate his half-brother with a nerve gas agent. 

spiky:スパイク状の
screamed:甲高い声でさけぶ
brilliantly:見事に
taunted:嘲ける
agent:化学変化を起こす物質

I thought about the joke the other day while listening to a diplomat describe Mr Trump’s unpredictability as an asset in dealing with North Korea. The argument went like this: Mr Kim might be deterred if he believed that the US president was as unhinged as he was. Peace on the Korean peninsula, in other words, may hinge on whether he buys into the Twitter meme. Not exactly reassuring. 

unpredictability:行動の読めないこと
asset:有用なもの
deterred:思いとどまらせる
unhinged:動揺する
hinge:次第である
meme:遺伝氏のように人々の心から心へと遺伝子のように伝播する情報
reassuring:安心だ

That such a prospect is a topic of discussion, though, underscores an uncomfortable truth: that no one has a clue how to handle Mr Kim or contain his escalating belligerence. Is he really crazy or does he just like to behave as if he is? Is he growing increasingly confident or desperately insecure? 

belligerence:攻撃的な態度
as if he is:そのままの彼であるかのように
insecure:不安である

Yet the clock is ticking. Singularly focused on his nuclear programme, no matter the consequences for his own population, Mr Kim’s regime will, in a matter of years, have the capability to strike US territory with nuclear weapons. Think of any kind of pressure, however, and it has been tried already, with limited impact if any at all. That includes sanctions. It also includes diplomacy. When the north was ruled by Mr Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, the “Six Party Talks” between North Korea, the US, China, Russia, South Korea and Japan that began in 2003 produced an agreement to close nuclear facilities, but were dead two years later when Pyongyang walked out. Meanwhile, military action is not a credible threat, unless one is willing to risk a retaliation that blows up South Korea. Cyber warfare to sabotage missile test launches has been attempted too, but it is not clear whether it has been effective. 

Singularly:際立って・特に
population:国民・人々
if any at all:少しでもあるとしたら
walked:突然やめる
credible:確実な
sabotage:破壊する

Throwing the ball into China’s court has been convenient and, to a certain extent, rational since Mr Kim’s regime is dependent on Chinese support. But China is in a bind, and it cannot handle North Korea on its own. It has tried to contain Pyongyang but does not seem able to control it. It is not in a position to provide the regime with the security guarantees it craves and is getting increasingly agitated about the expanding US military role in its neighbourhood, in particular the deployment of the Thaad anti-ballistic missile defence system in South Korea. No wonder the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, warned last week that the US and North Korea were “like two accelerating trains coming towards each other with neither side willing to give way”. 

convenient:都合の良い
rational:理にかなった
in a bind:困って
craves:切望する
agitated:扇動する

Mr Trump may be too busy fighting fictional wars at home to focus on such messy trouble so far away. At some point soon, though, he will no longer have a choice. His predecessor, Barack Obama, warned him as much during the transition. His lieutenants are now reviewing policy on North Korea, and US experts have produced reams of copy about how to deal with the North Korean supreme leader. 

fictional:架空の
so far away:非常に遠い
as much:それくらい
lieutenants:副官・中佐
reams:大量の

Some suggest an ugly, but perhaps necessary compromise: to avoid a war, the world must accept Mr Kim, giving him assurances that the US doesn’t seek to topple him. If he is more secure at home, he might miraculously turn into a semi-responsible member of the international community. Others dismiss this as appeasement and call for harsher sanctions against North Korea and China. And still others say go to war and threaten to nuke the north if it retaliates against the south. 

ugly:不穏な
appeasement:譲歩

Given the high stakes, and the risk that Mr Kim is as unstable as his image suggests, it is clearly time for serious diplomacy, backed up with the threat of even tougher sanctions. Talks may never achieve a complete nuclear disarmament but even a freeze on the nuclear programme in the short term is worth a try. It may be difficult to imagine Mr Kim standing next to Mr Trump at the White House but it is not as wild a thought as the alternatives in this crisis. 

北朝鮮の扱いをどうするか難しい問題だ。トランプがどういうオプションを取るのか。譲歩か戦争か。金正恩がホワイトハウスでトランプの隣に立つことを想像することはしがたいことだが、原爆を北朝鮮に落とすよりマシだろう。果たしてここ数年で彼はどうしようとするのだろうか。中国は相変わらず、動こうとはしないだろう。

国防長官がマティスなので、極めて冷静に動くだろう。今のままであれば、韓国を核攻撃してくるかもしれない。アメリカはそうしたことが起こるまでは動かないだろう。でも数年以内にそれが起こった時にはアメリカは北朝鮮に対して、核は使わないで、爆撃するだろう。平壌と核施設を1週間で完全に破壊するだろう。ただ1週間の間に、数発の核ミサイルが発射されるので、それをどうするかが最大の課題になるだろう。この数年で、どう対応するかを決めなければならない。

月曜日。今日も7冊目の本書きだ。アクセンチュア時代を描いている。ではまた明日。









swingby_blog at 20:01コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 
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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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