China, the rising power in the region, is a vital potential partner in helping to contain neighbouring North Korea. Yet before assuming office, Mr Trump made a point of speaking to the incoming Taiwanese president. The exchange cast doubt on America’s commitment to the “One China” policy under which Washington recognises Beijing as the sole legal government of China. 

assuming：想定する

However, Mr Trump told Mr Xi last month that he would honour the policy and is studiously polite about his soon-to-be guest. “I have great respect for him. I have great respect for China. I would not be at all surprised if we did something that would be very dramatic and good for both countries.” 

studiously：熱心に・慎重に
soon-to-be：すぐに〜になる見込みの

Many experts worried that President Trump would be dangerously volatile on foreign policy. But the combination of some strong figures in his national security team, particularly James Mattis, defence secretary, and the calming role of Jared Kushner, Mr Trump’s influential son-in-law, appears to be steadying the ship. Mr Trump has stopped speaking about moving the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, while reviving talk about a possible two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians and softening criticism of Nato allies. One constant is that he resolutely refuses to say a bad word about Mr Putin.  

reviving：復活させる
resolutely：断固として

While Mr Trump never apologises, he is capable of Protean shifts. In his interview with the Financial Times, he is keen to make clear he has no grudge against Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, having apparently declined to shake hands with her in front of the cameras in the Oval Office.  

Protean：変幻自在な
grudge：恨み

 “I had a great meeting with Chancellor Merkel,” Mr Trump says. “I shook hands about five times and then we were sitting in two seats . . . and I guess a reporter said ‘shake her hand’. I didn’t hear it.”  

On Brexit, he is similarly anxious to dispel suggestions that the US would happily countenance a break-up of the EU. Asked if he thought other nations were likely to follow the UK, Mr Trump says: “I would have thought when it happened that more would follow, but I really think the European Union is getting their act together.” 

dispel：払いのける
countenance：に賛成する

No bluffing on trade
On trade policy, too, Mr Trump appears to be more practical than many observers first assumed. Having berated Mexico as the chief source of illegal immigration and unfair trading practices under the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), the administration is shifting gear. For example, Wilbur Ross, commerce secretary and long-time friend, is seeking to resolve a longstanding dispute over sugar, aware that failure would embolden Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a radical left-winger running for Mexican president in 2018.  

bluffing：ハッタリをかける
berated：非難する
gear：方向を変える
embolden：勇気づける

Mr Ross, who joined the interview, cautions that people should not underestimate Mr Trump. “Tough rhetoric is certainly useful in the lead-up to negotiations, but the president isn’t bluffing,” he says. 

If his foreign policy is less revolutionary than first feared, Mr Trump’s domestic agenda remains controversial. He was propelled to office on a populist wave as Republicans, and enough blue-collar Democrats, rallied to his cause, abandoning Hillary Clinton, the establishment favourite. In his “Carnage in America” inaugural speech, Mr Trump paid homage to his supporters declaring that “the forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer”. 

propelled：駆り立てる
cause：理由
favourite：お気に入りの人
Carnage：大虐殺
homage：敬意を払う



The president has championed the cause of US manufacturing, cajoling foreign and US corporations to think again about locating jobs and factories in America. However, the self-styled dealmaker is finding governing harder than he imagined, even though the Republican party enjoys majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate.  

championed：を擁護する
cause：理想
cajoling：おだてる

Things began to unravel when he sought to use executive powers to control immigration — with both the first and second attempts blocked by the courts. More significant was the recent setback in efforts to replace the Obamacare healthcare law.  

unravel：失敗する

Republican leaders abandoned a vote after failing to win enough support to pass a hastily assembled bill. “I didn’t want to take a vote. I said why should I take a vote?” says Mr Trump, who pledged to repeal Obamacare as soon as he took office. Asked how he felt about the setback, he is still sore: “Yeah, I don’t lose. I don’t like to lose.” 

hastily：急いで
assembled：組み立てる
take a vote：投票する
sore：腹を立てている

He stresses that Republican lawmakers are still trying to reach a deal. But he says it “would be fine” if the Freedom Caucus, a group of hardline conservatives who are fierce opponents of Obamacare and also unhappy with the first bill, remain holdouts.  

holdout：拒む組織




China's President Xi Jinping meets with Donald Trump on Thursday for a summit that is expected to focus on trade and North Korea c AFP

“If we don’t get what we want, we will make a deal with the Democrats and we will have in my opinion not as good a form of healthcare,” says the president. “But we are going to have a very good form of healthcare. It will be a bipartisan form of healthcare.” 

The White House initially viewed Obamacare reform as “the key to unlocking the door”, and generating the funds necessary to make it easier to draft the first major US tax reform legislation since 1986 as well as a new $1tn infrastructure programme. Now, however, it is unclear how the administration can craft tax legislation that would satisfy fiscal conservatives by not raising the deficit. 



Mr Trump is holding his cards close. “I don’t want to talk about timing. We will have a very massive and very strong tax reform,” he says. Left unsaid is that his team is desperately looking for new ways to finance tax cuts, which need to be revenue-neutral to pass in the Senate with a simple majority.  

plày [hòld, kèep] one's cárds close to one's [the] chést [vést] ｟話｠計画[考え]を隠しておく, 手の内を見せない.
revenue-neutral：税収中立とは、減税を伴う税制改正を行う場合には、その減収分を増税による増収分により補う必要があるという考え方のこと。

Unless Mr Trump can salvage healthcare reform, he will hit his first 100 days in office without any big-ticket successes. His choice of Neil Gorsuch for the Supreme Court was applauded by Republicans, but Democrats are threatening to block a vote in the Senate. 

salvage：取り戻す

His advisers are working on ways to bypass Congress — mainly through a series of executive orders and other actions. This is what Steve Bannon, the top White House strategist, ominously calls “the deconstruction of the administrative state”.  

ominously：不吉に
deconstruction：行政国家の破壊

Mr Bannon has set up a “war room” in the West Wing where he has listed all of Mr Trump’s campaign pledges on a large whiteboard. The billion-dollar questions are whether Mr Trump can translate those pledges, especially the one to “Make America Great Again”, into practical policy, and whether he can keep his business interests separate from official business.  

Mr Trump is keen to dispel any misleading parallels in world history. After posing in front of Andrew Jackson, the first populist US president, he escorts his guests to an adjoining room where a portrait of Theodore Roosevelt hangs, whom he praises as a game-changing president. While true, one visitor gently reminds Mr Trump that there is a crucial difference. TR boasted of carrying a big stick, but he also made a virtue of speaking softly.  

parallels：並行するもの
adjoining：隣接する

結局トランプは今まで何らの成果も上げていない。中国との貿易赤字をどうするのか。健康法案は今後そう持っていくのか？移民に対する大統領令は裁判所に阻止されてしまった。もうそれほど大統領令を連発はできない。減税政策は赤字を増やさないで、行うというがどうやってそれができるのか？大統領に対する支持率が過去最低になっているが、それが挽回できるのか。

トランプがなぜ選ばれたのか？それはエスタブリッシュメンﾄに対抗するためだ。中産階級の復興だ。それがなぜいまシリアを攻撃し、アサドを倒そうとするのかが理解できない。衝動的としか思えない。移民政策とかメキシコの壁とかは論外だが、彼の大目標は正しい。金持ちをなくすことだ。ただ、そのための集団がハチャメチャだ。今のままだとそう長くはない。

火曜日。今日はdemocracyの準備だ。ではまた明日・

Donald Trump: Without Twitter, I would not be here — FT interview
Governing is harder than he thought, but the US president is defiant about his style and agenda
APRIL 3, 2017 by: Lionel Barber, Demetri Sevastopulo and Gillian Tett

Donald Trump:ツウィッターがなかったら今の私はいなかっただろう。
政権を担うのは彼が思っていたよりも大変だが、大統領はそのやり方とか課題に対して挑戦的だ。

defiant：挑戦的な



Halfway through an interview in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump is asked if he regrets any of his abrasive tweets about allies, political opponents and the state of the world. Mr Trump pauses, momentarily: “I don’t regret anything, because there is nothing you can do about it. You know if you issue hundreds of tweets, and every once in a while you have a clinker, that’s not so bad.” 

abrasive：いらつかせる・失礼な
clinker：調子外れの音・へま

The Trump presidency is like no other in the 230-year history of the American Republic. He is the first commander-in-chief never to have held government or military office; a property tycoon and reality TV host who has changed party allegiance five times. Nominally a populist, he has hired the wealthiest cabinet in history. His top White House aides, including his son-in-law, have combined assets of more than $2bn.  

allegiance：忠誠
Nominally：名目上は

Mr Trump confounded elite opinion in last year’s election (“You lost, I won,” he informs his guests at the outset). Today, the born-again Republican believes his mainstream critics are once again wrong. Business confidence is up and the Dow has surged. Mr Trump demands credit: like Franklin Roosevelt with radio and John F Kennedy and Ronald Reagan with TV, the president sees himself as master communicator to the masses.  

confounded：困惑させる 
outset：最初に
mainstream：主流の
critics：批判をする人たち
credit：信用

And he has the proof. “Where is Dan? Where is Dan Scavino please?” he bellows across the Oval Office. Within seconds, Mr Scavino, a former golf caddie who ran Mr Trump’s social media during the 2016 campaign and now does the same in the White House, walks over with a laptop to report that the president’s combined following is 101m. “Without the tweets, I wouldn’t be here . . . I have over 100m followers between Facebook, Twitter [and] Instagram,” Mr Trump says proudly. “Over 100m. I don’t have to go to the fake media.” 

bellows：怒鳴る

The Twitter exchange encapsulates Mr Trump: defiant, if a little defensive, and determined to show he is the man in charge. At times charming, at other times intimidating, his governing style delights in the unconventional. Yet it is profoundly destabilising, at home and abroad. Combined with incendiary accusations that the outgoing Obama administration ordered wiretaps in Trump Tower during the presidential election, as well as lingering questions about possible contacts between his campaign aides and Moscow, it has caused some to wonder if the Trump administration will survive a full term. 

encapsulates：を要約する
defensive：守勢の
intimidating：威圧的な
unconventional：型にはまらない
profoundly：大いに
destabilising：不安定にする
incendiary ：扇動的な
lingering：まとわりつく

Yet as Mr Trump approaches his first 100 days in office, there are tentative signs that there is more method behind the madness than critics suspect.  

madness：狂気の沙汰

Mr Trump and his team view the world in 2017 as marked by economic nationalism and strongmen from Vladimir Putin in Russia and Narendra Modi in India to China’s President Xi Jinping. They see it as a place where the US must vigorously assert its own interests.  

vigorously：精力的に

“I do believe in alliances. I believe in relationships. And I believe in partnerships. But alliances have not always worked out very well for us,” he says.  

Uncertain alliances
To allies such as the UK, Germany and Japan, Mr Trump’s transactional approach is deeply unsettling because it ignores the role the US has played in keeping the peace, from western Europe to the Korean Peninsula and the western Pacific. Their fear is that the US, defender of the liberal rules-based order for the past seven decades, is making a historic shift from selfless to selfish superpower.  

defender：擁護者
selfless：私心のない

A more optimistic, if cynical interpretation is that Mr Trump is merely using his presidential bully pulpit as a softening-up exercise — an opening gambit in a negotiation that will see him pull back once he has achieved more limited, economic and financial objectives in trade policy and international security.  

bully pulpit：大衆を説得できる〕傑出した公的地位［公権力］ルーズベルト大統領がアメリカ大統領職を指してこう呼んだことから。高い公的権力があれば自分の政治的な考えを大衆に容易に伝えられることを意味する。bullyは「優れている」という意味の形容詞。
gambit：先手

The president insists he is not bluffing. “This is a very, very serious problem that we have in the world today. And we have more than one, but this is no exercise . . . this is not talk. The United States has talked long enough and you see where it gets us, it gets us nowhere,” he says. “When you say is this a brilliant exercise, this isn’t a brilliant exercise . . . At the same time, I am not telling you what I am doing.” 

bluffing：ハッタリをかける

Trump on . . . 
Healthcare reform ‘If we don’t get what we want, [from Republicans] we will make a deal with the Democrats [on healthcare]’ Brexit ‘I think it is going to be a great deal for UK, and I think it is going to be really, really good also for the EU’  Twitter ‘Without the tweets, I wouldn’t be here. I have over 100m [followers]. I don’t have to go to fake media’ 

One thing he has made very clear is his desire to level the international playing field. He believes it has tilted too far in favour of allies enjoying a free ride under the US military umbrella, or emerging economies, notably China, which he claims have exploited world trade rules. In his telling, America has been a soft touch.  

level：平等な立場
soft touch：騙されやすい人

“It hasn’t worked for our predecessors. Look where we are. We have an $800bn trade deficit,” says Mr Trump. (The Department of Commerce reports the US trade deficit in goods and services was just over $500bn in 2016.)  

On Thursday and Friday, Mr Trump will host Mr Xi at Mar-a-Lago, his opulent Florida resort. The meeting poses perhaps the stiffest test so far of his “America first” approach. The US has a $347bn trade deficit with China; and one of Mr Trump’s campaign pledges was to brand Beijing a currency manipulator, a move which earlier US administrations considered, but discarded. 

opulent：豪華な
stiffest：厳しい

Trumpは言動がかなり過激だが、実際にはそうでもない。習近平に対して、台湾の蔡英文への電話の件で、結局一つの中国をみとめているし、パレスチナの件でも２国の存在をみとめているし、かなり常識的な動きをしている。America Firstと言っているのも、今までのアメリカがお人好しであったのを改めようとしている。中国を為替操作国とは呼んではいない。口が悪いようでも、彼のアクションはまとものようだ。

月曜日。慰安婦と南京大虐殺、７３１部隊の英語の資料の作成。今朝は朝会がある。Korean Negotiation Styleだ。ではまた明日。

And so, Duterte's options are gradually narrowing. Manila understands that it cannot check China's unrelenting ambitions in the Pacific or rely on Beijing's goodwill to preserve its maritime claims, just as it cannot afford to alienate Washington to the point of breaking its alliance with the United States. But the president's choices will be constrained by public sentiment and powerful stakeholders across the political spectrum. And if his popularity starts to notably decline, the most ambitious items on his agenda will be put in jeopardy. 

narrowing：狭くなってきている
unrelenting：情け容赦のない
ambitions：野心
alienate：遠ざける
constrained：制約する
jeopardy：危険にさらす

A Familiar Conundrum
To some extent, Duterte's predicament reflects the Philippines' larger geopolitical dilemma. Burdened by a weak state, the island nation has struggled to maintain its unity, protect its territorial integrity and guard against external threats. Yet, located at the heart of the Pacific Rim — and the center of the South China Sea dispute — Manila has long sought to leverage its geographic advantages for domestic gain. Duterte's administration is no exception, and it has tried to capitalize on its position to boost the Philippine economy, upgrade the nation's dilapidated infrastructure, quash the many insurgencies along the country's regional and religious divides, and secure critical sea lanes and maritime buffer zones. 

Conundrum：難問
predicament：困難な状況
Pacific Rim：環太平洋地域
dilapidated：崩れかけた
quash：制圧する

Compared with many of its mainland neighbors such as Cambodia, Thailand and, to a lesser extent, Vietnam, the Philippines has a competitive edge, even if it is largely untapped. Its young population and easy access to maritime trade routes have vastly improved its prospects for economic growth, in spite of its persistent problems with unemployment, deteriorating infrastructure and weak governance. But the Philippines' fractured landscape and demographic rifts have also revealed weaknesses that foreign actors can easily exploit. In fact, as China asserts itself in Southeast Asia, as Japan slowly remilitarizes, and as the United States' security guarantees remain clouded by uncertainty, the Philippines — more than any other Southeast Asian state — is poised to bear the consequences of rising tensions in the region. 

untapped：未開発の
competitive edge：競争上の優位性
deteriorating：悪化している
fractured：亀裂している
landscape：全般的状況
rifts：仲違い
clouded：暗い影を投じる
poised：不安定な
bear：耐える

With challenges to the Philippines' diplomatic reorientation mounting, so, too, will the threats to Duterte's position in power. This will not stop the president from trying to advance the more controversial items on his agenda, such as introducing a federal system of governance and pursuing peace deals with the country's Communist and Muslim Moro rebels. But it will certainly make them harder to achieve — and the cohesion of Duterte's ruling coalition more difficult to protect. 

cohesion：結束

Duterteの打つ手の範囲がだんだん狭くなってきている。中国との領土問題だけではない。南シナ海と取り巻く他の諸国家に対しての地理上の優位な立場がある。一方国内の支持基盤を確立するためにも、統治制度の見直しとか、共産党とかイスラムのモロ族との取引もある。この先行きの政権はまだまだ安定したものではない。

日曜日。慰安婦と南京大虐殺、７３１部隊の英語の資料の作成。ではまた明日。

Befriending a Regional Rival
Though Duterte's ruthless counternarcotics campaign continues to earn him points with the public, his foreign policy tactics have begun to backfire. On March 8, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana revealed that Chinese survey vessels repeatedly engaged in unauthorized activities near the Benham Rise last year. Located just east of Luzon — beyond the territories traditionally disputed between China and the Philippines — the area is believed to be rich in mineral and natural gas deposits. And though a U.N. commission confirmed that Benham Rise is part of the Philippines' extended continental shelf in 2012, effectively giving Manila exclusive rights to exploit hydrocarbon and mineral resources on the underwater plateau, the revelation has raised concerns that Beijing may not honor the ruling much longer. 

counternarcotics：麻薬対策
backfire：裏目にでる
unauthorized：許可されていない
revelation：暴露
honor：履行する

Duterte's subsequent claim that Manila had permitted the vessels' research — a direct contradiction of the statements made by his defense and foreign affairs officials — only increased the public's misgivings. To make matters worse, a local Chinese official then suggested that Beijing plans to build a monitoring station on the Scarborough Shoal, the submerged rock that once lay at the heart of Manila's maritime dispute with its northwestern neighbor. (Ironically, the flashpoint shoal had become a symbol of the Sino-Philippine reconciliation in recent months as the two countries agreed to joint fishing and patrol mechanisms in the waters around it.) Though the Chinese Foreign Ministry denied the validity of the remark a few days later, it did little to ease the anxiety spreading throughout the Philippines. 

misgivings：疑念
submerged：水面下に隠れた
flashpoint：一触即発の場所



subsea：海中の
innocent passage：無害通航

In some ways, China's interest in stepping up its underwater surveying in the Pacific Ocean is not a surprise. Nor is its longer-term goal of someday building up its infrastructure at the Scarborough Shoal. As Beijing works to tighten its grip on the South China Sea, expanding its presence in the waters beyond would be the next logical step. After all, a navy more capable of operating far from home requires familiarity with the deep-sea environment, particularly for surface and undersea operations. 

Nevertheless, China's moves around the Scarborough Shoal could greatly undermine the joint mechanisms it has in place with the Philippines, as well as Manila's broader reorientation toward Beijing. Though its research missions near the Benham Rise do not necessarily violate the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, they did revive Philippine fears surrounding the country's unresolved maritime disputes with China — and frustration with Duterte's stance toward them, which many Philippine citizens believe is too weak. 

reorientation：再配向・再配列・もう一度見直すこと
missions：任務

Neither China nor Duterte appears willing to jeopardize the momentum behind their warming of ties. Both have repeatedly tried to downplay the recent string of controversies while working to boost their economic and defense relationships. And from China's perspective, Manila's reorientation has brought several strategic advantages in its pursuit of an evolving South China Sea policy and other regional imperatives. But despite Beijing's best efforts to remedy the situation — and Duterte's subsequent decision to bolster the Philippines' naval presence around the Benham Rise — they have not been enough to quell the backlash against the president's erratic rhetoric or dispel his image as a leader soft on China. Having shown no intention of backing down from his rebalancing act, Duterte will likely only encounter more obstacles ahead as rising nationalism, a persistent risk of maritime skirmishes, and constitutional restrictions stand in the way of closer relations with Beijing. 

jeopardize：危険にさらす
downplay：を過小評価する
controversies：論争
imperatives：緊急になすべきこと・責務
remedy：改善する
quell：を抑える
backlash：反感
erratic：気まぐれな
dispel：払いのける
backing：取り下げる
encounter：直面する
constitutional restriction：本質的な制限　中国とうまくやっていこうという意味

A High-Stakes Gamble
At first Duterte's unorthodox approach to diplomacy seemed to have paid off, particularly as the rise of a new administration in the White House called into question Washington's Asia-Pacific policy. The Philippine president's newfound friendship with China has already yielded a multibillion-dollar economic deal that includes much-needed infrastructure investment, aid and trade pacts. At the same time, he has boosted the Philippines' economic and defense ties with Japan and Russia, all while maintaining the protection and power that an alliance with the United States provides. But as the latest incidents have shown, Duterte's success is by no means certain to last forever. 

paid：うまくいく
called into question：疑問視する
yielded：をもたらす
boosted ：を高める

Striking a delicate balance between great powers such as the United States and China requires room to maneuver and a high tolerance for risk. After all, the economic benefits of deals reached with Beijing will take years to materialize, and there is no guarantee that they will fulfill Duterte's promise to deliver sustained and equitable growth to the Philippine economy. Unlike in his more popular drug war, moreover, Duterte will not be able to count on the public's backing to shield his foreign policy initiatives from military, legislative or judicial scrutiny — particularly if he is perceived to be trading Philippine sovereignty for Chinese trains and trade. Already wary of Duterte's determination to cooperate with China, the Philippine defense establishment and population have grown all the more suspicious of Beijing's incursions into previously untouched waters. 

room：余地
maneuver：政策の変更の余地
tolerance　；抵抗力
equitable：公正な
shield：守る
scrutiny：監視
perceived：であると気づく
sovereignty：主権
trains：一連の流れ
incursions：侵略
defense establishment：軍事組織

Duterteの中国との経済を意識した協調は昨今の中国軍の動きによって軍部の組織と国民の間から疑念の声が上がってきている。麻薬撲滅の評価は高いのだが、今回の中国軍のスカボロショールに対しての噂とか中国軍のBenham Riseへの侵略が国民を不安にしている。Duterteの中国に対する態度が生ぬるいと感じている。彼は自国の経済への中国からの投資を意識しているだが、一方で、中国の領土に対するフィリピンの懸念がある。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

In the Philippines, 'The Punisher' Takes a Beating
Analysis MARCH 30, 2017 | 09:00 GMT Stratfor

フィリピンで、「懲罰する人」が負けている。

Less than a year into his term, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is on shaky ground. But he still has enough support among the population, the legislature and the country's biggest power brokers to fend off threats to his rule. (TED ALJIBE/AFP/Getty Images)

shaky：危うい
power broker：黒幕
fend：攻撃をかわす



Forecast
Challenges to Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's hold on power, whether in the form of an impeachment or a coup, are unlikely to gain momentum while he remains broadly popular. But China's unrelenting attempts to extend its maritime boundaries will complicate its detente with the Philippines and undermine Duterte's political support at home. Meanwhile, the president's contentious domestic agenda will test the mettle of his ruling coalition. 

impeachment：弾劾
momentum：勢いを増す
unrelenting：情け容赦のない
detente：緊張緩和
mettle：気概・根性

Analysis
Nine months after surging into office on a wave of popular support, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is on shaky ground as he pushes ahead with his controversial agenda. At home, "The Punisher's" brutal campaign against drug dealers and crackdown on corruption among bureaucrats and police forces are still widely supported by Philippine citizens. But the extrajudicial killings, which so far have claimed around 8,000 lives, have begun to draw criticism from the Catholic Church, civil society groups and Western governments. His political opponents have seized upon the condemnations, along with his threats to impose martial law, to try to mobilize the public against his young administration. 

extrajudicial：法的に認められない
claimed：命を奪う
mobilize：動員する・集める

Duterte's attempt to overhaul Manila's foreign policy is not going much more smoothly. The president's efforts to spearhead a detente with China while pulling back from close ties with the United States have been undermined by Beijing's creeping maritime claims and Duterte's own conflicting statements. This has raised accusations that Duterte is compromising the country's sovereignty for economic gain and put the president somewhat at odds with the country's military and foreign policy establishment, including, at times, his hand-picked leaders of the Defense and Foreign ministries. 

conflicting：相反する
odds：と異なって
establishment：組織
hand-picked：精選する

For now, at least, the consternation building against Duterte is not enough to hamstring him. His overwhelming popularity, control of Congress and support among the Philippines' biggest political power brokers will enable him to fend off any threats to his rule, including a recent impeachment bid submitted by a member of the opposition. Moreover, despite the occasional rumor of a coup in the making, the military for the most part still supports the president — and is far too fragmented to take action against him without broad, grassroots push for his removal. Nevertheless, as a political outsider who is still working to consolidate power across the fractured country, Duterte will have to take care to ensure that his populist theatrics and devil-may-care diplomacy do more to advance his contentious policies than stall them. 

consternation：仰天・非常な驚き
hamstring：足の腱を切って不自由にする
making：発達過程の
fractured：亀裂が生じている
theatrics：わざとらしさ
devil-may-care：楽天的な
contentious：物議を醸す
stall：止める

open season：に対する批判
pusher：麻薬の売人

Duterteが麻薬の過激な取り締まりを行ってきているだけでなく、中国との交渉で、揉めているが、
依然として、彼は国内で強く支持されいるので、弾劾とかクーデターの可能性は少ない。彼の過激な性格が物議を起こしているだが、まだ問題には至っていない。

金曜日。今日は英語の本を書く。この英語の本は慰安婦とか南京大虐殺、７３１部隊の日本の海外の人に対するきちんとした資料がないので今書いている。英語の講義録に日本語の補足資料を作成している。ではまた明日。

No one has defined what the China solution is. But, whatever it means, there is one for everything. Strengthening global government? There is a China solution to that, said the People’s Daily, the party’s main mouthpiece, in mid-March. Climate change? “The next step is for us to bring China’s own solution,” said Xie Zhenhua, the government’s special climate envoy, in another newspaper, Southern Metropolis. There is even a China solution to the problem of bolstering the rule of law, claimed an article in January in Study Times, a weekly for officials. Multi-billion-dollar investments in infrastructure in Central Asia are China’s solution to poverty and instability there. And so on. Unlike the China model, which its boosters said was aimed at developing countries, the China solution, says David Kelly of China Policy, a consultancy, is for everyone—including Western countries. 

mouthpiece：代弁者
envoy：公使

This marks a change. Chinese leaders never praised the China model; its fans were mainly Chinese academics and the country’s cheerleaders in the West. (Long before the term became fashionable, Deng advised the president of Ghana: “Do not follow the China model.”) Most officials were wary of it because the term could be interpreted as China laying down the law to others, contradicting its policy of not interfering in other countries’ internal affairs. In contrast, it was Mr Xi himself who broached the idea of the China solution. His prime minister included it in his work report. China now seems more relaxed about bossing others around. 

praised：賞賛する
broached：言いにくい話題を切り出す
bossing：指図する

This reflects not only the determination of the leadership to play a bigger role, but a growing confidence that China can do it. China’s self-assurance has been bolstered by what it sees as recent foreign-policy successes. Last year an international tribunal ruled against China’s claims to sovereignty in much of the South China Sea. But China promptly persuaded the Philippines, which had brought the case, implicitly to disavow its legal victory, eschew its once-close ties with America and sign a deal accepting vast quantities of Chinese investment. Soon after that Malaysia, another hitherto America-leaning country with maritime claims overlapping those of China, came to a similar arrangement. China’s leaders concluded that, despite the tribunal’s ruling, 2016 had been a good year for them in the South China Sea. 

self-assurance：自信
disavow：否認する
eschew：を意識して避ける
arrangement：取り決め

It was certainly a notable one for Mr Xi’s most ambitious foreign policy, called the “Belt and Road Initiative”. The scheme involves infrastructure investment along the old Silk Road between China and Europe. The value of contracts signed under the scheme came within a whisker of $1trn last year—not bad for something that only started in 2013. Chinese exports to the 60-odd Belt and Road countries overtook those to America and the European Union. In May Mr Xi is due to convene a grand summit of the countries to celebrate and advertise a project that could one day rival transatlantic trade in importance. 

whisker：もうちょっとで
odd：あまりの
overtook：を追い越す

But talk of “guiding globalisation” and a “China solution” does not mean China is turning its back on the existing global order or challenging American leadership of it across the board. China is a revisionist power, wanting to expand influence within the system. It is neither a revolutionary power bent on overthrowing things, nor a usurper, intent on grabbing global control. 

across the board：全面的に
revisionist ：修正主義の
bent：努力を傾ける
overthrowing：ひっくり返す
usurper：強奪者

China is the third-largest donor to the UN’s budget after America and Japan (see chart) and is the second-largest contributor, after America, to the UN’s peacekeeping. Last year China chaired a summit of the Group of 20 largest economies—it has an above-average record of complying with the G20’s decisions. Recently it has stepped up its multilateral commitments. In 2015 it secured the adoption of the yuan as one of the IMF’s five reserve currencies. It has set up two financial institutions, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank, which are modelled on traditional ones such as the World Bank. Global rules on trade and finance, it seems, are too important for Mr Xi not to defend. 

complying：に沿って
defend：擁護する

China is becoming a more active participant in the UN, but it is not trying to dominate it. It reacts to, rather than initiates, sanctions policy towards North Korea. And despite its own extensive anti-terrorist operations at home, it shows little interest in joining, let alone leading, operations against Islamic State. 




There are domestic constraints on Mr Xi’s ambitions. China’s vast bureaucracy is resistant to change in foreign policy, as in everything else. During a recent trip to Australia the foreign minister, Wang Yi, said China had “no intention of leading anybody”. He was not contradicting Mr Xi, but neither was he echoing the president’s desire to guide a new world order. Ding Yifang of the Institute of World Development, a think-tank in Beijing, is similarly cautious about the China solution. “We don’t have universal ideals,” he says. “We are not that ambitious.” 

echoing ：意見を踏襲する

Globalism with Chinese characteristics
So what might China’s unassuming new assertiveness mean in practice? A template can be found in climate-change policy. China was one of the main obstacles to a global climate agreement in 2008, but now its words are the lingua franca of climate-related diplomacy. Parts of a deal on carbon emissions between Mr Xi and Barack Obama were incorporated wholesale into the Paris climate treaty of 2016. China helped determine how that accord defines what are known as “common and differentiated responsibilities”, namely how much each country should be responsible for cutting emissions. 

unassuming：謙虚な
lingua franca：共通語
incorporated：取り入れる
wholesale：大規模に

As chairman of the G20 last year, Mr Xi made the fight against climate change a priority for the group. But China’s clout at that time was bolstered by its accord with America. Now Mr Trump is beginning to dismantle his predecessor’s climate policies. Li Shou of Greenpeace says China is therefore preparing to go it alone as Mr Xie, the climate envoy, said in January that it was prepared to do. It may be that a “China solution” to climate change will be the first practical application of the term. 

accord：合意
dismantle：廃止する

Soon after Mr Xi’s speech in Davos, Zhang Jun, a senior Foreign Ministry official, put his finger on China’s changing place in the world. “I would say it is not China rushing to the front,” he told a newspaper in Hong Kong, “but rather the front-runners have stepped back, leaving the place to China.” But officials have far fewer qualms than Deng did about being at the front. “If China is required to play a leadership role,” says Mr Zhang, “it will assume its responsibilities.” 

finger：ちゃんと指摘する
qualms：一抹の不安
assume：引き受ける

アメリカが世界のリーダーとしての地位を降りるのであれば、中国が受けると言っている。南シナ海でのフィリピンとかマレーシアへの対応にしても、環境保護の取り決めにしても、謙虚ではあるが、中国が明らかに前面に出てリードしようとしている。その意図は中国が世界新秩序を作ろうとしている。

トランプが政権をとって、世界の覇者に関心を持たなくなったのをいい機会に世界の地位を中国が築こうとしている。ダボス会議での習近平の動きがそれを物語っている。中国の儒教も孫子の兵法も攻めない。謙虚に敵が罠に引っかかるのを待つ戦法だ。まさしく、今の中国はその戦略をとっている。

木曜日。今日は久しぶりに、上村社長と会食をする。ではまた明日。