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グローバル人材育成の道｜海野惠一（元アクセンチュア代表）2017年05月
2017年05月18日
マイクロソフトの将来はパソコンを遥かに超えたものだ。
Microsoft's Future Is About Much More Than PCs
Lisa Eadicicco
May 13, 2017
マイクロソフトの将来はパソコンを遥かに超えたものだ。
When Microsoft brought its Office suite to Apple's iPad in 2014, many observers viewed it as a move to strengthen the company's presence in the mobile space — even if it meant working with a fierce rival. It was also a sign that then-new CEO Satya Nadella was committed to extending his company's reach beyond laptops and desktops, where its Windows software already dominated the market (and still does.) Three years later, it's clear that Nadella remains committed to that plan.
During this week's Build conference, an annual Microsoft event for software developers, the Redmond, Wash.-based firm showed off a new version of Windows, a new controller for virtual reality experiences, and improvements for its Cortana artificial intelligence software. Yes, Microsoft missed the boat on mobile. But, taken together, these announcements show that it's committed not only to making up lost ground, but also to powering the next big thing in tech, no matter what that might be.
taken together：これらをもとに
Microsoft's work on Cortana perhaps best highlights the company's platform-agnostic approach. Whereas rivals like Apple have limited their digital aides to work with only their own hardware, Cortana is available for everything from Windows devices to Internet-connected speakers and cars to, yes, the iPhone. Microsoft sees a particular advantage in making Cortana useful in the workplace, given the company's historical dominance there. One demonstration during Build showed how an office worker might use Cortana on a living room speaker to get everyday tasks done with simple voice commands, like posting updates to the company's workplace chatroom, getting traffic notifications while driving to a meeting, or requesting time off.
agnostic：不可知論の
time off：休暇
Meanwhile, the forthcoming update will make Windows 10 the most multi-platform version of the software Microsoft has ever made. Cortana will help users seamlessly transition between devices, whether they run Windows or not. An improved clipboard makes it possible to copy and paste content between Windows, Android, and iOS devices. And a new video editing app called Story Remix lets users work on projects across devices — if you get some work done on an Apple device then switch back to a Windows computer, it'll pick up where you left off.
clipboard：カットまたはコピーしたデータを一時的に保存しておく場所
But Microsoft's boldest bet is on virtual and augmented reality. Its Windows 10 Mixed Reality software powers a range of experiences that, when used with hardware like the upcoming headsets from Acer and HP, blend the physical and digital worlds. The jury is still out on whether VR will go mainstream any time soon. But if it does, Microsoft is well-positioned to be a dominant force in the field. "If we can get that presence right, I think it's just going to revolutionize our lives, allow us to connect when we're apart," Terry Myerson, Microsoft's executive vice president of Windows and devices, told TIME in a previous interview. There is good reason for Microsoft's cross-platform approach.
bet：大胆な策
augmented：増強された
jury：まだ結論が出ていない
Worldwide PC shipments dipped by 2.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2017, according to research firm Gartner. Another firm, IDC, says shipments actually grew in this year's first quarter, but only by 0.6%. Those numbers are bad news if your company is tied to PCs in the way Microsoft has historically been. So this kind of forward-looking hedging may give Microsoft a way to stay relevant in the future."If anything, one big mistake we made in our past was to think of the PC as the hub for everything for all time to come," Nadella told ZDNet in 2015. "Therefore, we have to be on the hunt for what's the next bend in the curve." Nobody can predict the future, of course. But Microsoft looks more prepared than ever for whatever's around the corner.
dipped：下落する
hedging：防衛手段
relevant：適切な
PCの次はなんだろう。MicrosoftはVRだという。PCの販売は下降している。PCがこれからのITの核だと思っていたが、どうもそうではない。仮想空間にITの領域は拡大していくとMicrosoftは言う。Windowsの技術はどんな媒体でも、クリップボードが有効にできるようにすると言う。すごいことだ。ロボット技術の進展もすごいが、このICT世界も革命が起きそうだ。
金曜日。三井物産の元副社長の渡邊五郎さんとの会食がある。ではまた明日。
Lisa Eadicicco
May 13, 2017
マイクロソフトの将来はパソコンを遥かに超えたものだ。
When Microsoft brought its Office suite to Apple's iPad in 2014, many observers viewed it as a move to strengthen the company's presence in the mobile space — even if it meant working with a fierce rival. It was also a sign that then-new CEO Satya Nadella was committed to extending his company's reach beyond laptops and desktops, where its Windows software already dominated the market (and still does.) Three years later, it's clear that Nadella remains committed to that plan.
During this week's Build conference, an annual Microsoft event for software developers, the Redmond, Wash.-based firm showed off a new version of Windows, a new controller for virtual reality experiences, and improvements for its Cortana artificial intelligence software. Yes, Microsoft missed the boat on mobile. But, taken together, these announcements show that it's committed not only to making up lost ground, but also to powering the next big thing in tech, no matter what that might be.
taken together：これらをもとに
Microsoft's work on Cortana perhaps best highlights the company's platform-agnostic approach. Whereas rivals like Apple have limited their digital aides to work with only their own hardware, Cortana is available for everything from Windows devices to Internet-connected speakers and cars to, yes, the iPhone. Microsoft sees a particular advantage in making Cortana useful in the workplace, given the company's historical dominance there. One demonstration during Build showed how an office worker might use Cortana on a living room speaker to get everyday tasks done with simple voice commands, like posting updates to the company's workplace chatroom, getting traffic notifications while driving to a meeting, or requesting time off.
agnostic：不可知論の
time off：休暇
Meanwhile, the forthcoming update will make Windows 10 the most multi-platform version of the software Microsoft has ever made. Cortana will help users seamlessly transition between devices, whether they run Windows or not. An improved clipboard makes it possible to copy and paste content between Windows, Android, and iOS devices. And a new video editing app called Story Remix lets users work on projects across devices — if you get some work done on an Apple device then switch back to a Windows computer, it'll pick up where you left off.
clipboard：カットまたはコピーしたデータを一時的に保存しておく場所
But Microsoft's boldest bet is on virtual and augmented reality. Its Windows 10 Mixed Reality software powers a range of experiences that, when used with hardware like the upcoming headsets from Acer and HP, blend the physical and digital worlds. The jury is still out on whether VR will go mainstream any time soon. But if it does, Microsoft is well-positioned to be a dominant force in the field. "If we can get that presence right, I think it's just going to revolutionize our lives, allow us to connect when we're apart," Terry Myerson, Microsoft's executive vice president of Windows and devices, told TIME in a previous interview. There is good reason for Microsoft's cross-platform approach.
bet：大胆な策
augmented：増強された
jury：まだ結論が出ていない
Worldwide PC shipments dipped by 2.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2017, according to research firm Gartner. Another firm, IDC, says shipments actually grew in this year's first quarter, but only by 0.6%. Those numbers are bad news if your company is tied to PCs in the way Microsoft has historically been. So this kind of forward-looking hedging may give Microsoft a way to stay relevant in the future."If anything, one big mistake we made in our past was to think of the PC as the hub for everything for all time to come," Nadella told ZDNet in 2015. "Therefore, we have to be on the hunt for what's the next bend in the curve." Nobody can predict the future, of course. But Microsoft looks more prepared than ever for whatever's around the corner.
dipped：下落する
hedging：防衛手段
relevant：適切な
PCの次はなんだろう。MicrosoftはVRだという。PCの販売は下降している。PCがこれからのITの核だと思っていたが、どうもそうではない。仮想空間にITの領域は拡大していくとMicrosoftは言う。Windowsの技術はどんな媒体でも、クリップボードが有効にできるようにすると言う。すごいことだ。ロボット技術の進展もすごいが、このICT世界も革命が起きそうだ。
金曜日。三井物産の元副社長の渡邊五郎さんとの会食がある。ではまた明日。
2017年05月17日
トランプの地政学的な計算違い
Trump’s geopolitical miscalculations
May 12, 2017 | Featured, Opinion, PerryScope
By Perry Diaz
トランプの地政学的な計算違い
When Donald J. Trump was campaigning for the presidency, he projected a “tough guy” image by lambasting everyone that stood on his way or anyone who disagreed with him. His forays into foreign policy were gutsy and digressed from previous administrations’ diplomatic restraint in handling sensitive geopolitical issues. He shocked America’s NATO allies after he suggested that he might not honor the core tenet of the military alliance. He said the U.S. “would not necessarily defend new NATO members in the Baltics in the event of Russian attack if he were elected to the White House.”
lambasting：こき下ろす
forays：進出・侵入
digressed：横道へ脱線する
tenet：信条
On U.S.-China relations, Trump stirred a hornet’s nest when he challenged the “One-China Policy” and accused China of currency manipulation and unfair trade practices. He vowed to straighten things out in Asia.
hornet’s nest：大騒ぎを引き起こす
vowed：誓う
His tough stance against China gave Japan and South Korea, America’s closest treaty allies, a sigh of relief. At last, they have an American president who would stand by them if attacked, unlike Trump’s predecessor, former president Barack Obama, whom he criticized for appeasing China and didn’t do anything to stop China’s construction of artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago.
appeasing：鎮める
After he assumed the presidency, he must have realized that foreign policy – which he had no experience before – is a complicated and complex game of statesmanship and adroit diplomatic leadership and maneuvering. It must have been a rude awakening for him to recognize that the practice of brinkmanship is quite different from the “art of the deal,” which he proudly claims to be his forte.
assumed：実権を握る
statesmanship：政治的手腕
adroit：巧みな
maneuvering：巧妙な手段
rude awakening：突然思い知らされること・愕然とする
forte：得意分野
And to make things worse, he appointed his friend Rex Tillerson to the post of Secretary of State. With no experience in foreign policy – or government for that matter – poor Tillerson was thrown into the murky waters of geopolitics. And between him and Trump, how do you think they’d handle bullies like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong-un in the world stage? They are no ordinary world leaders; they are authoritarian dictators who love to threaten the U.S. with nuclear destruction. In particular, North Korea’s “Supreme Leader” Kim Jong-un seems to have rankled Trump who doesn’t appear to know how to handle the unpredictable Kim.
murky ：わかりにくい
bullies：ガキ大将
rankled：苦しめる
North Korea problem
In an attempt to show Kim that he meant business, Trump sent Vice President Mike Pence to South Korea. In a show of grit, Pence — like Trump and Tillerson who don’t have any foreign policy experience — visited the demilitarized zone (DMZ) and stared across the “no man’s land” between North and South Korea, a day after North Korea’s failed missile launch. He talked tough, saying, “There was a period of strategic patience [in reference to Obama’s foreign policy] but the era of strategic patience is over.” “All options are on the table to achieve the objectives and ensure the stability of the people of this country,” he told reporters while propaganda music was continually played across from the North Korean side.
show ：を明らかにする
business：本気でやるつもりでいる
grit：やる気
ensure：保証する
Meanwhile, Trump announced that an “armada” consisting of an aircraft carrier and several warships were on their way to the Korean Peninsula as a warning to North Korea. But a few days later, it was revealed in the media that the “armada” was moving in the opposite direction: to Australia to participate in a training exercise. In a quick attempt to undo his boo-boo, Trump ordered the “armada” to turn around and head to the Korean Peninsula.
boo-boo：へま
But while the exercise of sending the blunt-talking vice president and deploying the “armada” to Korean waters may have achieved a “shock and awe” effect initially, it was blown away by Trump’s erroneous announcement.
blunt：遠慮のない
awe：畏れ
erroneous ：誤った情報に基づく
What happened with the “armada” may have been deemed as miscommunication between Trump and his admirals. But from a geopolitical standpoint, Trump lost credibility as Commander-in-Chief, which effectively dealt a major blow to his ability to lead the nation’s military. For not getting his ducks in a row, Trump’s miscalculation doesn’t bode well with his relation with Asian countries, particularly the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Most of the ASEAN members are now kowtowing to Beijing because of their perception that Trump has abandoned Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” policy that has kept most of them in America’s orbit.
bode：にとって良い前兆である
kowtowing ：へつらう
South China Sea concessions
After the recent Trump-Xi summit at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, Trump’s hard-line stance against China melted like a marshmallow over a fire. After two days of negotiations, Trump declared that China was not a “currency manipulator” and decided to maintain the status quo on trade issues.
For these concessions, Trump wanted Xi to help with the North Korea problem. In return, Xi responded with his signature half-smile but made no promises. But if there was one winner during the summit, it was Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump whose three trademarks for her jewelry and spa brand were approved by China the same day she and her husband Jared Kushner sat down for dinner with Xi and Trump at the Mar-a-Lago. It’s interesting to note that the Chinese trademarks requires that Ivanka’s products be manufactured in China using Chinese workers, which begs the question: What happened to Trump’s “America First” slogan? Or is it still the same old “Made in China” trade policies? Does it sound like another miscalculation? Indeed, the calculus doesn’t add up in America’s favor. Two winners emerged from the summit: Xi Jinping and Ivanka Trump.
calculus：論法
TPP miscalculation
But the worst in Trump’s miscalculations in Asia was his decision to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a security and economic agreement between 12 countries led by the U.S. Seven of the member-countries hail from the Asia-Pacific: Australia, Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Vietnam, of which four are ASEAN members (Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam). Collectively, the TPP member-countries account for 40% of world trade. Ironically, it was the U.S. under the presidency of Obama who started the negotiations among the 12 countries. Unfortunately, while 11 countries ratified TPP in 2016, the U.S. Congress under Republican control failed – or refused – to ratify it in the last few months of Obama’s presidency. When Trump took over, withdrawal from TPP was one of his first acts – victims of his vindictive assault on policies and programs that Obama implemented.
hail：受け入れる
vindictive：報復的な
Following Trump’s withdrawal last February, Japan (the largest remaining TPP member) said that the TPP was meaningless without the U.S. But recently, Japan’s position on TPP changed. She realized that China is moving fast to fill the vacuum left by the U.S. in the Pacific Rim region. And without the U.S. the other member-countries are playing the “China card” by negotiating their own trade agreements with China. Among them are Canada and Mexico, two of the three member-countries of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The third member-country is the U.S. But what made Canada and Mexico nervous was Trump’s threat to withdraw from NAFTA. But it was averted when the Canadian prime minister and Mexican president called Trump and talked him out of withdrawing. Needless to say, it would have been another humongous miscalculation had Trump decided to dismantle NAFTA.
averted：避ける
humongous：どでかい
dismantle：解体する
Japan steps in
It finally dawned on Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that if China joins the TPP, she would end up controlling the partnership, which would make Abe play second fiddle to China. And given the current geopolitical tremors that are occurring between Japan and China over the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, Japan is considering taking over the reins of the TPP.
dawned：わかり始める
fiddle：下につく 第二バイオリンのこと
tremors：身震い
With all of Trump’s geopolitical miscalculations, he could lose America’s preeminent role in world affairs. While Pax Americana has been showing cracks on its facade, the U.S. under Obama managed to contain China. But just four months into Trump’s presidency, China’s takeover of South China Sea is secured. With Trump making all these miscalculations, Pax Americana is on the throes of death. And taking its place would be a bipolar world order: Pax Russica in the West and Pax Sinica in the East.
preeminent：卓越した
facade：外見
throes：断末魔の苦しみ
bipolar：両極の
トランプの外交政策のまずさを指摘している。彼は外交は全くわかっていないようだ。NAFTAとやめようと言ったり、TPPには参加しないと言ったり、その政策は支離滅裂だ。こんなことをしていたら、せっかく築いたアメリカの世界における覇権を失ってしまう。世界は中国とロシアがしまいしてしまう。一体それでいいのだろうか。
全くその通りで、トランプもティラーソンも外交の経験がない。だからこうした結果になっている。習近平とあって中国のことが少しわかってきたようだ。今度は金正恩に会おうと言っている。まるで、こうしたことを見ているとガキ大将がトップになった感じだ。アメリカはそういう意味ですごい国だ。日本では彼みたいな粗削りの人材がどんな組織でもトップになることはありえない。中国でも、どこでもそうだ。
木曜日。今日は本書きだけだ。ではまた明日。
May 12, 2017 | Featured, Opinion, PerryScope
By Perry Diaz
トランプの地政学的な計算違い
When Donald J. Trump was campaigning for the presidency, he projected a “tough guy” image by lambasting everyone that stood on his way or anyone who disagreed with him. His forays into foreign policy were gutsy and digressed from previous administrations’ diplomatic restraint in handling sensitive geopolitical issues. He shocked America’s NATO allies after he suggested that he might not honor the core tenet of the military alliance. He said the U.S. “would not necessarily defend new NATO members in the Baltics in the event of Russian attack if he were elected to the White House.”
lambasting：こき下ろす
forays：進出・侵入
digressed：横道へ脱線する
tenet：信条
On U.S.-China relations, Trump stirred a hornet’s nest when he challenged the “One-China Policy” and accused China of currency manipulation and unfair trade practices. He vowed to straighten things out in Asia.
hornet’s nest：大騒ぎを引き起こす
vowed：誓う
His tough stance against China gave Japan and South Korea, America’s closest treaty allies, a sigh of relief. At last, they have an American president who would stand by them if attacked, unlike Trump’s predecessor, former president Barack Obama, whom he criticized for appeasing China and didn’t do anything to stop China’s construction of artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago.
appeasing：鎮める
After he assumed the presidency, he must have realized that foreign policy – which he had no experience before – is a complicated and complex game of statesmanship and adroit diplomatic leadership and maneuvering. It must have been a rude awakening for him to recognize that the practice of brinkmanship is quite different from the “art of the deal,” which he proudly claims to be his forte.
assumed：実権を握る
statesmanship：政治的手腕
adroit：巧みな
maneuvering：巧妙な手段
rude awakening：突然思い知らされること・愕然とする
forte：得意分野
And to make things worse, he appointed his friend Rex Tillerson to the post of Secretary of State. With no experience in foreign policy – or government for that matter – poor Tillerson was thrown into the murky waters of geopolitics. And between him and Trump, how do you think they’d handle bullies like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong-un in the world stage? They are no ordinary world leaders; they are authoritarian dictators who love to threaten the U.S. with nuclear destruction. In particular, North Korea’s “Supreme Leader” Kim Jong-un seems to have rankled Trump who doesn’t appear to know how to handle the unpredictable Kim.
murky ：わかりにくい
bullies：ガキ大将
rankled：苦しめる
North Korea problem
In an attempt to show Kim that he meant business, Trump sent Vice President Mike Pence to South Korea. In a show of grit, Pence — like Trump and Tillerson who don’t have any foreign policy experience — visited the demilitarized zone (DMZ) and stared across the “no man’s land” between North and South Korea, a day after North Korea’s failed missile launch. He talked tough, saying, “There was a period of strategic patience [in reference to Obama’s foreign policy] but the era of strategic patience is over.” “All options are on the table to achieve the objectives and ensure the stability of the people of this country,” he told reporters while propaganda music was continually played across from the North Korean side.
show ：を明らかにする
business：本気でやるつもりでいる
grit：やる気
ensure：保証する
Meanwhile, Trump announced that an “armada” consisting of an aircraft carrier and several warships were on their way to the Korean Peninsula as a warning to North Korea. But a few days later, it was revealed in the media that the “armada” was moving in the opposite direction: to Australia to participate in a training exercise. In a quick attempt to undo his boo-boo, Trump ordered the “armada” to turn around and head to the Korean Peninsula.
boo-boo：へま
But while the exercise of sending the blunt-talking vice president and deploying the “armada” to Korean waters may have achieved a “shock and awe” effect initially, it was blown away by Trump’s erroneous announcement.
blunt：遠慮のない
awe：畏れ
erroneous ：誤った情報に基づく
What happened with the “armada” may have been deemed as miscommunication between Trump and his admirals. But from a geopolitical standpoint, Trump lost credibility as Commander-in-Chief, which effectively dealt a major blow to his ability to lead the nation’s military. For not getting his ducks in a row, Trump’s miscalculation doesn’t bode well with his relation with Asian countries, particularly the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Most of the ASEAN members are now kowtowing to Beijing because of their perception that Trump has abandoned Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” policy that has kept most of them in America’s orbit.
bode：にとって良い前兆である
kowtowing ：へつらう
South China Sea concessions
After the recent Trump-Xi summit at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, Trump’s hard-line stance against China melted like a marshmallow over a fire. After two days of negotiations, Trump declared that China was not a “currency manipulator” and decided to maintain the status quo on trade issues.
For these concessions, Trump wanted Xi to help with the North Korea problem. In return, Xi responded with his signature half-smile but made no promises. But if there was one winner during the summit, it was Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump whose three trademarks for her jewelry and spa brand were approved by China the same day she and her husband Jared Kushner sat down for dinner with Xi and Trump at the Mar-a-Lago. It’s interesting to note that the Chinese trademarks requires that Ivanka’s products be manufactured in China using Chinese workers, which begs the question: What happened to Trump’s “America First” slogan? Or is it still the same old “Made in China” trade policies? Does it sound like another miscalculation? Indeed, the calculus doesn’t add up in America’s favor. Two winners emerged from the summit: Xi Jinping and Ivanka Trump.
calculus：論法
TPP miscalculation
But the worst in Trump’s miscalculations in Asia was his decision to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a security and economic agreement between 12 countries led by the U.S. Seven of the member-countries hail from the Asia-Pacific: Australia, Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Vietnam, of which four are ASEAN members (Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam). Collectively, the TPP member-countries account for 40% of world trade. Ironically, it was the U.S. under the presidency of Obama who started the negotiations among the 12 countries. Unfortunately, while 11 countries ratified TPP in 2016, the U.S. Congress under Republican control failed – or refused – to ratify it in the last few months of Obama’s presidency. When Trump took over, withdrawal from TPP was one of his first acts – victims of his vindictive assault on policies and programs that Obama implemented.
hail：受け入れる
vindictive：報復的な
Following Trump’s withdrawal last February, Japan (the largest remaining TPP member) said that the TPP was meaningless without the U.S. But recently, Japan’s position on TPP changed. She realized that China is moving fast to fill the vacuum left by the U.S. in the Pacific Rim region. And without the U.S. the other member-countries are playing the “China card” by negotiating their own trade agreements with China. Among them are Canada and Mexico, two of the three member-countries of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The third member-country is the U.S. But what made Canada and Mexico nervous was Trump’s threat to withdraw from NAFTA. But it was averted when the Canadian prime minister and Mexican president called Trump and talked him out of withdrawing. Needless to say, it would have been another humongous miscalculation had Trump decided to dismantle NAFTA.
averted：避ける
humongous：どでかい
dismantle：解体する
Japan steps in
It finally dawned on Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that if China joins the TPP, she would end up controlling the partnership, which would make Abe play second fiddle to China. And given the current geopolitical tremors that are occurring between Japan and China over the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, Japan is considering taking over the reins of the TPP.
dawned：わかり始める
fiddle：下につく 第二バイオリンのこと
tremors：身震い
With all of Trump’s geopolitical miscalculations, he could lose America’s preeminent role in world affairs. While Pax Americana has been showing cracks on its facade, the U.S. under Obama managed to contain China. But just four months into Trump’s presidency, China’s takeover of South China Sea is secured. With Trump making all these miscalculations, Pax Americana is on the throes of death. And taking its place would be a bipolar world order: Pax Russica in the West and Pax Sinica in the East.
preeminent：卓越した
facade：外見
throes：断末魔の苦しみ
bipolar：両極の
トランプの外交政策のまずさを指摘している。彼は外交は全くわかっていないようだ。NAFTAとやめようと言ったり、TPPには参加しないと言ったり、その政策は支離滅裂だ。こんなことをしていたら、せっかく築いたアメリカの世界における覇権を失ってしまう。世界は中国とロシアがしまいしてしまう。一体それでいいのだろうか。
全くその通りで、トランプもティラーソンも外交の経験がない。だからこうした結果になっている。習近平とあって中国のことが少しわかってきたようだ。今度は金正恩に会おうと言っている。まるで、こうしたことを見ているとガキ大将がトップになった感じだ。アメリカはそういう意味ですごい国だ。日本では彼みたいな粗削りの人材がどんな組織でもトップになることはありえない。中国でも、どこでもそうだ。
木曜日。今日は本書きだけだ。ではまた明日。
2017年05月16日
トランプノミクスはなぜアメリカを再び偉大に出来ないのか。 アメリカの大統領が衝動的であり、薄っぺらなので、法の支配ばかりでなく、経済をも脅かしている。(2)
Unleashing pent-up energy would be welcome, but Mr Trump’s agenda comes with two dangers. The economic assumptions implicit in it are internally inconsistent. And they are based on a picture of America’s economy that is decades out of date.
pent-up：抑えられた
implicit ：潜在して
inconsistent：一貫性がない
Contrary to the Trump team’s assertions, there is little evidence that either the global trading system or individual trade deals have been systematically biased against America (see article). Instead, America’s trade deficit—Mr Trump’s main gauge of the unfairness of trade deals—is better understood as the gap between how much Americans save and how much they invest (see article). The fine print of trade deals is all but irrelevant. Textbooks predict that Mr Trump’s plans to boost domestic investment will probably lead to larger trade deficits, as it did in the Reagan boom of the 1980s. If so, Mr Trump will either need to abandon his measure of fair trade or, more damagingly, try to curb deficits by using protectionist tariffs that will hurt growth and sow mistrust around the world.
biased：偏った
gauge：尺度
irrelevant：筋違いの
sow：種をまく
A deeper problem is that Trumponomics draws on a blinkered view of America’s economy. Mr Trump and his advisers are obsessed with the effect of trade on manufacturing jobs, even though manufacturing employs only 8.5% of America’s workers and accounts for only 12% of GDP. Service industries barely seem to register. This blinds Trumponomics to today’s biggest economic worry: the turbulence being created by new technologies. Yet technology, not trade, is ravaging American retailing, an industry that employs more people than manufacturing (see article). And economic nationalism will speed automation: firms unable to outsource jobs to Mexico will stay competitive by investing in machines at home. Productivity and profits may rise, but this may not help the less-skilled factory workers who Mr Trump claims are his priority.
blinkered：視野の狭い
obsessed：取り憑かれている
register：表れている
blinds：盲にしている
turbulence：乱気流
ravaging：を破壊する
The bite behind the bark
Trumponomics is a poor recipe for long-term prosperity. America will end up more indebted and more unequal. It will neglect the real issues, such as how to retrain hardworking people whose skills are becoming redundant. Worse, when the contradictions become apparent, Mr Trump’s economic nationalism may become fiercer, leading to backlashes in other countries—further stoking anger in America. Even if it produces a short-lived burst of growth, Trumponomics offers no lasting remedy for America’s economic ills. It may yet pave the way for something worse.
indebted：債務がある
stoking：怒りを煽る
ills：病気・問題
トランプが工場をアメリカにもってこいとか、それによって雇用を増やすとかいうのは詭弁だ。メキシコに工場を持っていけなければ自動化が進行するだけだ。保護貿易にしてしまうと、短期的には国内産業を保護することになるが、それによって国が栄えるわけがない。失業が増え、借金が増え、国家が貧しくなってしまう。こんなことをしていたら、赤字がもっと増えてしまう。
トランプは経済を勉強しなければならない。彼は馬鹿ではないので、時間が経てば、周りの意見を聞いて、メキシコの壁の話は止めるだろう。米国に工場を誘致することも強制しなくなるだろう。NAFTAも継続するだろう。TPPも復活するだろう。無知すぎる。アメリカの金持ち支配を打倒することは正しいが、戦術が間違っている。
水曜日。今日は塾がある。ではまた明日。
pent-up：抑えられた
implicit ：潜在して
inconsistent：一貫性がない
Contrary to the Trump team’s assertions, there is little evidence that either the global trading system or individual trade deals have been systematically biased against America (see article). Instead, America’s trade deficit—Mr Trump’s main gauge of the unfairness of trade deals—is better understood as the gap between how much Americans save and how much they invest (see article). The fine print of trade deals is all but irrelevant. Textbooks predict that Mr Trump’s plans to boost domestic investment will probably lead to larger trade deficits, as it did in the Reagan boom of the 1980s. If so, Mr Trump will either need to abandon his measure of fair trade or, more damagingly, try to curb deficits by using protectionist tariffs that will hurt growth and sow mistrust around the world.
biased：偏った
gauge：尺度
irrelevant：筋違いの
sow：種をまく
A deeper problem is that Trumponomics draws on a blinkered view of America’s economy. Mr Trump and his advisers are obsessed with the effect of trade on manufacturing jobs, even though manufacturing employs only 8.5% of America’s workers and accounts for only 12% of GDP. Service industries barely seem to register. This blinds Trumponomics to today’s biggest economic worry: the turbulence being created by new technologies. Yet technology, not trade, is ravaging American retailing, an industry that employs more people than manufacturing (see article). And economic nationalism will speed automation: firms unable to outsource jobs to Mexico will stay competitive by investing in machines at home. Productivity and profits may rise, but this may not help the less-skilled factory workers who Mr Trump claims are his priority.
blinkered：視野の狭い
obsessed：取り憑かれている
register：表れている
blinds：盲にしている
turbulence：乱気流
ravaging：を破壊する
The bite behind the bark
Trumponomics is a poor recipe for long-term prosperity. America will end up more indebted and more unequal. It will neglect the real issues, such as how to retrain hardworking people whose skills are becoming redundant. Worse, when the contradictions become apparent, Mr Trump’s economic nationalism may become fiercer, leading to backlashes in other countries—further stoking anger in America. Even if it produces a short-lived burst of growth, Trumponomics offers no lasting remedy for America’s economic ills. It may yet pave the way for something worse.
indebted：債務がある
stoking：怒りを煽る
ills：病気・問題
トランプが工場をアメリカにもってこいとか、それによって雇用を増やすとかいうのは詭弁だ。メキシコに工場を持っていけなければ自動化が進行するだけだ。保護貿易にしてしまうと、短期的には国内産業を保護することになるが、それによって国が栄えるわけがない。失業が増え、借金が増え、国家が貧しくなってしまう。こんなことをしていたら、赤字がもっと増えてしまう。
トランプは経済を勉強しなければならない。彼は馬鹿ではないので、時間が経てば、周りの意見を聞いて、メキシコの壁の話は止めるだろう。米国に工場を誘致することも強制しなくなるだろう。NAFTAも継続するだろう。TPPも復活するだろう。無知すぎる。アメリカの金持ち支配を打倒することは正しいが、戦術が間違っている。
水曜日。今日は塾がある。ではまた明日。
2017年05月15日
トランプノミクスはなぜアメリカを再び偉大に出来ないのか。 アメリカの大統領が衝動的であり、薄っぺらなので、法の支配ばかりでなく、経済をも脅かしている。
Why Trumponomics won’t make America great again
The impulsiveness and shallowness of America’s president threaten the economy as well as the rule of law
May 13th 2017
トランプノミクスはなぜアメリカを再び偉大に出来ないのか。
アメリカの大統領が衝動的であり、薄っぺらなので、法の支配ばかりでなく、経済をも脅かしている。
impulsiveness：衝動的であること
shallowness：薄っぺらなこと
rule of law：法の支配
DONALD TRUMP rules over Washington as if he were a king and the White House his court. His displays of dominance, his need to be the centre of attention and his impetuousness have a whiff of Henry VIII about them. Fortified by his belief that his extraordinary route to power is proof of the collective mediocrity of Congress, the bureaucracy and the media, he attacks any person and any idea standing in his way.
court：宮廷
impetuousness：せっかち
whiff：兆候
Fortified：を鼓舞する
collective：共同の・集団の
mediocrity：平凡
Just how much trouble that can cause was on sensational display this week, with his sacking of James Comey—only the second director of the FBI to have been kicked out. Mr Comey has made mistakes and Mr Trump was within his rights. But the president has succeeded only in drawing attention to questions about his links to Russia and his contempt for the norms designed to hold would-be kings in check.
questions ：疑惑
contempt：侮辱
norms：基準
check ；抑制する
Just as dangerous, and no less important to ordinary Americans, however, is Mr Trump’s plan for the economy. It treats orthodoxy, accuracy and consistency as if they were simply to be negotiated away in a series of earth-shattering deals. Although Trumponomics could stoke a mini-boom, it, too, poses dangers to America and the world.
earth-shattering：大地を揺るがすほどの
Trumponomics 101
In an interview with this newspaper, the president gave his most extensive description yet of what he wants for the economy (see article). His target is to ensure that more Americans have well-paid jobs by raising the growth rate. His advisers talk of 3% GDP growth—a full percentage point higher than what most economists believe is today’s sustainable pace.
In Mr Trump’s mind the most important path to better jobs and faster growth is through fairer trade deals. Though he claims he is a free-trader, provided the rules are fair, his outlook is squarely that of an economic nationalist. Trade is fair when trade flows are balanced. Firms should be rewarded for investing at home and punished for investing abroad.
squarely：明白に
The second and third strands of Trumponomics, tax cuts and deregulation, will encourage that domestic investment. Lower taxes and fewer rules will fire up entrepreneurs, leading to faster growth and better jobs. This is standard supply-side economics, but to see Trumponomics as a rehash of Republican orthodoxy is a mistake—and not only because its economic nationalism is a departure for a party that has championed free trade.
strands：計画の要素
fire：に点火する
rehash：焼き直したもの
championed ：擁護する
The real difference is that Trumponomics (unlike, say, Reaganomics) is not an economic doctrine at all. It is best seen as a set of proposals put together by businessmen courtiers for their king. Mr Trump has listened to scores of executives, but there are barely any economists in the White House. His approach to the economy is born of a mindset where deals have winners and losers and where canny negotiators confound abstract principles. Call it boardroom capitalism.
mindset：考え方
canny：抜け目のない
confound ：困惑させる
abstract：抽象的な
That Trumponomics is a business wishlist helps explain why critics on the left have laid into its poor distributional consequences, fiscal indiscipline and potential cronyism. And it makes clear why businessmen and investors have been enthusiastic, seeing it as a shot in the arm for those who take risks and seek profits. Stockmarkets are close to record highs and indices of business confidence have soared.
indiscipline：無秩序
cronyism：縁故主義
shot in the arm：カンフル剤
In the short term that confidence could prove self-fulfilling. America can bully Canada and Mexico into renegotiating NAFTA. For all their sermons about fiscal prudence, Republicans in Congress are unlikely to deny Mr Trump a tax cut. Stimulus and rule-slashing may lead to faster growth. And with inflation still quiescent, the Federal Reserve might not choke that growth with sharply higher interest rates.
self-fulfilling：自己実現化する
bully：を脅す
sermons：小言
prudence：用心深さ
quiescent：静止した
choke：成長を妨げる
トランプの政策を批判している。彼の思いつきで、場当たり的な政策は息詰まる。一時的に景気は良くなるだろうが、戦略的ではない。縁故主義で、財政の秩序がない。減税政策と規制緩和は経営者を元気づけるがそれも一時的だろう。FRBはそう高い金利を目指さないだろうから、インフレも起こらないだろう。国内への投資を奨励し、海外への投資には批判している。サプライサイドエコノミックスがうまく稼働するわけがない。
たしかにそうだ。まだ１００日だから結果はまだ何もないが、彼が今までの言うとおりにやってしまうと経済は破綻してしまうだろう。ただ、彼は人の言うことを聞いたり、人選の目があるので、そうしたことがこのままスムースに行けばうまくいくだろう。もう少し様子を見ないとわからない。
火曜日。今日は若尾さんの講演会があり、楽しみだ。ではまた明日。
The impulsiveness and shallowness of America’s president threaten the economy as well as the rule of law
May 13th 2017
トランプノミクスはなぜアメリカを再び偉大に出来ないのか。
アメリカの大統領が衝動的であり、薄っぺらなので、法の支配ばかりでなく、経済をも脅かしている。
impulsiveness：衝動的であること
shallowness：薄っぺらなこと
rule of law：法の支配
DONALD TRUMP rules over Washington as if he were a king and the White House his court. His displays of dominance, his need to be the centre of attention and his impetuousness have a whiff of Henry VIII about them. Fortified by his belief that his extraordinary route to power is proof of the collective mediocrity of Congress, the bureaucracy and the media, he attacks any person and any idea standing in his way.
court：宮廷
impetuousness：せっかち
whiff：兆候
Fortified：を鼓舞する
collective：共同の・集団の
mediocrity：平凡
Just how much trouble that can cause was on sensational display this week, with his sacking of James Comey—only the second director of the FBI to have been kicked out. Mr Comey has made mistakes and Mr Trump was within his rights. But the president has succeeded only in drawing attention to questions about his links to Russia and his contempt for the norms designed to hold would-be kings in check.
questions ：疑惑
contempt：侮辱
norms：基準
check ；抑制する
Just as dangerous, and no less important to ordinary Americans, however, is Mr Trump’s plan for the economy. It treats orthodoxy, accuracy and consistency as if they were simply to be negotiated away in a series of earth-shattering deals. Although Trumponomics could stoke a mini-boom, it, too, poses dangers to America and the world.
earth-shattering：大地を揺るがすほどの
Trumponomics 101
In an interview with this newspaper, the president gave his most extensive description yet of what he wants for the economy (see article). His target is to ensure that more Americans have well-paid jobs by raising the growth rate. His advisers talk of 3% GDP growth—a full percentage point higher than what most economists believe is today’s sustainable pace.
In Mr Trump’s mind the most important path to better jobs and faster growth is through fairer trade deals. Though he claims he is a free-trader, provided the rules are fair, his outlook is squarely that of an economic nationalist. Trade is fair when trade flows are balanced. Firms should be rewarded for investing at home and punished for investing abroad.
squarely：明白に
The second and third strands of Trumponomics, tax cuts and deregulation, will encourage that domestic investment. Lower taxes and fewer rules will fire up entrepreneurs, leading to faster growth and better jobs. This is standard supply-side economics, but to see Trumponomics as a rehash of Republican orthodoxy is a mistake—and not only because its economic nationalism is a departure for a party that has championed free trade.
strands：計画の要素
fire：に点火する
rehash：焼き直したもの
championed ：擁護する
The real difference is that Trumponomics (unlike, say, Reaganomics) is not an economic doctrine at all. It is best seen as a set of proposals put together by businessmen courtiers for their king. Mr Trump has listened to scores of executives, but there are barely any economists in the White House. His approach to the economy is born of a mindset where deals have winners and losers and where canny negotiators confound abstract principles. Call it boardroom capitalism.
mindset：考え方
canny：抜け目のない
confound ：困惑させる
abstract：抽象的な
That Trumponomics is a business wishlist helps explain why critics on the left have laid into its poor distributional consequences, fiscal indiscipline and potential cronyism. And it makes clear why businessmen and investors have been enthusiastic, seeing it as a shot in the arm for those who take risks and seek profits. Stockmarkets are close to record highs and indices of business confidence have soared.
indiscipline：無秩序
cronyism：縁故主義
shot in the arm：カンフル剤
In the short term that confidence could prove self-fulfilling. America can bully Canada and Mexico into renegotiating NAFTA. For all their sermons about fiscal prudence, Republicans in Congress are unlikely to deny Mr Trump a tax cut. Stimulus and rule-slashing may lead to faster growth. And with inflation still quiescent, the Federal Reserve might not choke that growth with sharply higher interest rates.
self-fulfilling：自己実現化する
bully：を脅す
sermons：小言
prudence：用心深さ
quiescent：静止した
choke：成長を妨げる
トランプの政策を批判している。彼の思いつきで、場当たり的な政策は息詰まる。一時的に景気は良くなるだろうが、戦略的ではない。縁故主義で、財政の秩序がない。減税政策と規制緩和は経営者を元気づけるがそれも一時的だろう。FRBはそう高い金利を目指さないだろうから、インフレも起こらないだろう。国内への投資を奨励し、海外への投資には批判している。サプライサイドエコノミックスがうまく稼働するわけがない。
たしかにそうだ。まだ１００日だから結果はまだ何もないが、彼が今までの言うとおりにやってしまうと経済は破綻してしまうだろう。ただ、彼は人の言うことを聞いたり、人選の目があるので、そうしたことがこのままスムースに行けばうまくいくだろう。もう少し様子を見ないとわからない。
火曜日。今日は若尾さんの講演会があり、楽しみだ。ではまた明日。
2017年05月14日
中国はあたらしいシルクロードを建設していると言っている。 重要なサミットの前に知っておくべき５つのこと。
China Says It's Building the New Silk Road.
Here Are Five Things to Know Ahead of a Key Summit
Charlie Campbell / Beijing
May 12, 2017
中国はあたらしいシルクロードを建設していると言っている。
重要なサミットの前に知っておくべき５つのこと。
A woman takes pictures in front of a flower display ahead of the Belt and Road Forum in central Beijing, China, May 10, 2017. Thomas Peter—Reuters
It’s championed by pliant academics in state newspapers, danced about by ethnically diverse children in propaganda videos, and financed by fretful bankers with little hope of recouping their investments: China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a leviathan transnational infrastructure scheme that's hard to ignore. On Sunday, a two-day summit on President Xi Jinping’s keynote project opens in Beijing, attended by 1,500 delegates from 130 countries, including 29 heads of state and government. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte are the star names on show, and even North Korea is sending a delegation. (Though E.U. leaders are in relatively short supply.)
championed：を擁護する
pliant：思考が柔軟な
diverse：様々の
fretful：いらいらした
recouping：支出を取り戻す
leviathan：巨大なもの
In short, the Belt and Road Initiative (otherwise known as One Belt One Road, or OBOR) is a revival of the iconic land and maritime Silk Road via a trade and infrastructure network spanning East Asia to Western Europe and South through Africa. It consists of roads, railways, ports, pipelines and everything in between across a region with a $26 trillion infrastructure deficit, according to some estimates. The basic idea is to make it easier for China to trade with the world, at a time when its economy is slowing, with the happy corollary that the world will find it easier to trade with each other. But OBOR remains a nebulous, confusing concept, which offers enormous benefits but only if significant challenges can be negotiated.
In short：要約すると
iconic：象徴的な
deficit：赤字
corollary：当然の帰結
nebulous：漠然とした
“Major concerns remain regarding the transparency of how China is financing these projects, and the extent to which China is able to manage security risks in OBOR countries,” says Nick Marro, China analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Here's what you need to know:
OBOR covers 65% of the world’s population, three-quarters of global energy resources and 40% of GDP. China’s annual trade with OBOR countries already exceeds $1.4 trillion. But Beijing’s overlapping disputes in the South and East China Seas have fed suspicions that OBOR is a Trojan horse for extending its geopolitical clout.
fed：感情を煽る
If so, China is backing that gambit with hard cash: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor — connecting China’s westernmost city of Kashgar to Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar, some 2,000 miles away — will alone cost $46 billion. (By comparison, the U.S. has spent $33 billion in Pakistan since 2002, two-thirds on security.)
gambit：口火となる言葉・序盤の手
Above all, OBOR signifies that China is embracing an international presence like never before, and the old isolationist adage of “hide your strength, bide your time,” coined by China’s reformist leader Deng Xiaoping, is very much a thing of the past. “The scale of China’s Belt and Road Initiative could eclipse the role of the G-7 or G-20 Forums as a new framework for stimulating infrastructure development in low income developing countries,” writes Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist for IHS Markit.
signifies：を示す
adage：格言
bide：好機の到来を待つ
coined：を新造する
eclipse：の影を薄くする
It’s fuzzy:
Even academics who have immersed themselves in OBOR since Xi Jinping unveiled the initiative in 2013 are unsure about the specific parameters. That’s maybe because there are none: any nation, company, organization anywhere is welcome to join OBOR, says Beijing — even the U.S. Only one official map of the project has been produced, though, and that was swiftly withdrawn, leaving analysts and the media to draft their own based upon dribs and drabs of solid information. “Almost anything now can be counted as Belt and Road,” Tom Miller, author of China’s Asia Dream: Empire Building Along the New Silk Road, told a recent talk at the Foreign Correspondent’s Club of China.
fuzzy：ぼやけた
immersed：熱中する
unsure：確信がない
parameters：範囲・限度
dribs：ほんの僅かずつ
solid：中身の詰まった
It’s political:
Before President Donald Trump nixed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, OBOR was seen as Beijing’s rival to that Washington-led free trade pact, which Beijing opted not to join. Some say that China’s offer to help build ports and railways across the region is just a cynical ploy to shift excess capacity overseas, particularly steel. The numbers don’t support that — China’s overcapacity is simply too big — though there are clear geopolitical and security benefits from China diversifying its energy resources.
nixed：を否定する
diversifying：分散させる
Currently, up to 80% of China’s oil arrives via the Strait of Malacca, thus is vulnerable to blockade in time of war or other crises. New pipelines through Central Asia, Myanmar and Pakistan therefore make strategic sense. As does the idea of strengthening connectivity across Asia, with China very much at its beating heart. “Writing off OBOR is a big mistake,” says Professor Nick Bisley, an Asia expert at Australia’s La Trobe University. “It speaks to a leadership vision that is very Chinese.”
blockade：封鎖する
Writing：失敗とみなす
It’s expensive:
OBOR consists of $900 billion of planned investments, making it probably the grandest investment drive put forward by a single country. In 2015, China transferred $82 billion to three state-owned banks for OBOR projects. It also set up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) primarily to fund OBOR, of which the $100 billion of initial capital may be doubled soon.
But doubts remain over the financing: Crucially, Xi unveiled OBOR when raw commodity prices were high, thus exploiting hitherto untapped supplies in Central Asia made sense. But today’s historic low prices stamp a big question mark over the economic viability of these projects.
Crucially：決定的なことに
exploiting：資源を開発する
hitherto：これまで
viability：実行可能性
In addition, the political expedience of supporting OBOR means that many seemingly unrelated projects are jumping on the bandwagon in the hopes of securing easy funding. That opens the door for projects that “don’t fit with the government’s strategy or perhaps accelerate systemic risks,” says Nicholas Consonery, a China specialist at FTI Consulting. “Or maybe they are just bad investments.”
It’s not plain sailing:
Back when Marco Polo was meandering to the Far East in the 13th century, Asian trade routes were on the whole freely navigable. Today, however, festering conflicts pepper China’s western flank — including Afghanistan, Pakistan and parts of Myanmar, as well as farther afield in Ukraine and the Middle East. China’s own westernmost region of Xinjiang, key to nearly all of the Belt part of the OBOR, is also prone to strife.
plain sailing：順調な航海
meandering：あてもなくさまよう
navigable：航行可能な
festering：悪化する
pepper：散りばめる
flank：側面
afield：遥かに離れて
prone：傾向がある
strife：紛争
Already, a Chinese-financed port in Sri Lanka has been postponed following deadly protests, and the Indian government is rumbling about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passes though disputed Kashmir. That project is a key part of OBOR, potentially slashing the time of transporting goods from eastern Chinese factories to the Middle East from 12 days to 36 hours. But other than Kashmir, the route also snakes past Taliban territory and Baloch insurgents.
rumbling：喧嘩をする
The big question is how will China protect its investment. Are we going to see Chinese boots on the ground? That's a prospect that would radically reform the region’s security architecture. “We don’t really know much about co-financing in the host governments, and the kinds of debts and repayments that are going to be involved,” says Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy. “And all that infrastructure spanning out from Western China can be hostage to instability.”
emeritus：名誉教授
hostage：に制限される
一帯一路は、2014年11月に中華人民共和国で開催されたアジア太平洋経済協力首脳会議で、習近平総書記が提唱した経済圏構想である。その投資は9,000億ドルと途方も無いものであり、２６兆ドルの赤字のインフラ構築である。目玉はパキスタンを経由してインド洋に出る高速道路で、４６０億ドルも提供する。こうした超大型のプロジェクトはG-7とかG-20を凌ぐような組織となるだろう。
世界のGDPの４０％、人口の６５％をカバーする。米が入ってくれば世界全体に影響をおよぼすことになる。まさしく、気が遠くなるような大事業が起こる。１３０カ国が参加する会議というから、明らかに中国は世界の覇権を意識している。凄まじいことだ。昨今の中国の隆盛を見ていると、この先の１０年は中国が本当に世界の覇権を掌握してしまうかもしれない。
月曜日。今日は石油会がある。ではまた明日。
Here Are Five Things to Know Ahead of a Key Summit
Charlie Campbell / Beijing
May 12, 2017
中国はあたらしいシルクロードを建設していると言っている。
重要なサミットの前に知っておくべき５つのこと。
A woman takes pictures in front of a flower display ahead of the Belt and Road Forum in central Beijing, China, May 10, 2017. Thomas Peter—Reuters
It’s championed by pliant academics in state newspapers, danced about by ethnically diverse children in propaganda videos, and financed by fretful bankers with little hope of recouping their investments: China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a leviathan transnational infrastructure scheme that's hard to ignore. On Sunday, a two-day summit on President Xi Jinping’s keynote project opens in Beijing, attended by 1,500 delegates from 130 countries, including 29 heads of state and government. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte are the star names on show, and even North Korea is sending a delegation. (Though E.U. leaders are in relatively short supply.)
championed：を擁護する
pliant：思考が柔軟な
diverse：様々の
fretful：いらいらした
recouping：支出を取り戻す
leviathan：巨大なもの
In short, the Belt and Road Initiative (otherwise known as One Belt One Road, or OBOR) is a revival of the iconic land and maritime Silk Road via a trade and infrastructure network spanning East Asia to Western Europe and South through Africa. It consists of roads, railways, ports, pipelines and everything in between across a region with a $26 trillion infrastructure deficit, according to some estimates. The basic idea is to make it easier for China to trade with the world, at a time when its economy is slowing, with the happy corollary that the world will find it easier to trade with each other. But OBOR remains a nebulous, confusing concept, which offers enormous benefits but only if significant challenges can be negotiated.
In short：要約すると
iconic：象徴的な
deficit：赤字
corollary：当然の帰結
nebulous：漠然とした
“Major concerns remain regarding the transparency of how China is financing these projects, and the extent to which China is able to manage security risks in OBOR countries,” says Nick Marro, China analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Here's what you need to know:
OBOR covers 65% of the world’s population, three-quarters of global energy resources and 40% of GDP. China’s annual trade with OBOR countries already exceeds $1.4 trillion. But Beijing’s overlapping disputes in the South and East China Seas have fed suspicions that OBOR is a Trojan horse for extending its geopolitical clout.
fed：感情を煽る
If so, China is backing that gambit with hard cash: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor — connecting China’s westernmost city of Kashgar to Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar, some 2,000 miles away — will alone cost $46 billion. (By comparison, the U.S. has spent $33 billion in Pakistan since 2002, two-thirds on security.)
gambit：口火となる言葉・序盤の手
Above all, OBOR signifies that China is embracing an international presence like never before, and the old isolationist adage of “hide your strength, bide your time,” coined by China’s reformist leader Deng Xiaoping, is very much a thing of the past. “The scale of China’s Belt and Road Initiative could eclipse the role of the G-7 or G-20 Forums as a new framework for stimulating infrastructure development in low income developing countries,” writes Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist for IHS Markit.
signifies：を示す
adage：格言
bide：好機の到来を待つ
coined：を新造する
eclipse：の影を薄くする
It’s fuzzy:
Even academics who have immersed themselves in OBOR since Xi Jinping unveiled the initiative in 2013 are unsure about the specific parameters. That’s maybe because there are none: any nation, company, organization anywhere is welcome to join OBOR, says Beijing — even the U.S. Only one official map of the project has been produced, though, and that was swiftly withdrawn, leaving analysts and the media to draft their own based upon dribs and drabs of solid information. “Almost anything now can be counted as Belt and Road,” Tom Miller, author of China’s Asia Dream: Empire Building Along the New Silk Road, told a recent talk at the Foreign Correspondent’s Club of China.
fuzzy：ぼやけた
immersed：熱中する
unsure：確信がない
parameters：範囲・限度
dribs：ほんの僅かずつ
solid：中身の詰まった
It’s political:
Before President Donald Trump nixed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, OBOR was seen as Beijing’s rival to that Washington-led free trade pact, which Beijing opted not to join. Some say that China’s offer to help build ports and railways across the region is just a cynical ploy to shift excess capacity overseas, particularly steel. The numbers don’t support that — China’s overcapacity is simply too big — though there are clear geopolitical and security benefits from China diversifying its energy resources.
nixed：を否定する
diversifying：分散させる
Currently, up to 80% of China’s oil arrives via the Strait of Malacca, thus is vulnerable to blockade in time of war or other crises. New pipelines through Central Asia, Myanmar and Pakistan therefore make strategic sense. As does the idea of strengthening connectivity across Asia, with China very much at its beating heart. “Writing off OBOR is a big mistake,” says Professor Nick Bisley, an Asia expert at Australia’s La Trobe University. “It speaks to a leadership vision that is very Chinese.”
blockade：封鎖する
Writing：失敗とみなす
It’s expensive:
OBOR consists of $900 billion of planned investments, making it probably the grandest investment drive put forward by a single country. In 2015, China transferred $82 billion to three state-owned banks for OBOR projects. It also set up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) primarily to fund OBOR, of which the $100 billion of initial capital may be doubled soon.
But doubts remain over the financing: Crucially, Xi unveiled OBOR when raw commodity prices were high, thus exploiting hitherto untapped supplies in Central Asia made sense. But today’s historic low prices stamp a big question mark over the economic viability of these projects.
Crucially：決定的なことに
exploiting：資源を開発する
hitherto：これまで
viability：実行可能性
In addition, the political expedience of supporting OBOR means that many seemingly unrelated projects are jumping on the bandwagon in the hopes of securing easy funding. That opens the door for projects that “don’t fit with the government’s strategy or perhaps accelerate systemic risks,” says Nicholas Consonery, a China specialist at FTI Consulting. “Or maybe they are just bad investments.”
It’s not plain sailing:
Back when Marco Polo was meandering to the Far East in the 13th century, Asian trade routes were on the whole freely navigable. Today, however, festering conflicts pepper China’s western flank — including Afghanistan, Pakistan and parts of Myanmar, as well as farther afield in Ukraine and the Middle East. China’s own westernmost region of Xinjiang, key to nearly all of the Belt part of the OBOR, is also prone to strife.
plain sailing：順調な航海
meandering：あてもなくさまよう
navigable：航行可能な
festering：悪化する
pepper：散りばめる
flank：側面
afield：遥かに離れて
prone：傾向がある
strife：紛争
Already, a Chinese-financed port in Sri Lanka has been postponed following deadly protests, and the Indian government is rumbling about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passes though disputed Kashmir. That project is a key part of OBOR, potentially slashing the time of transporting goods from eastern Chinese factories to the Middle East from 12 days to 36 hours. But other than Kashmir, the route also snakes past Taliban territory and Baloch insurgents.
rumbling：喧嘩をする
The big question is how will China protect its investment. Are we going to see Chinese boots on the ground? That's a prospect that would radically reform the region’s security architecture. “We don’t really know much about co-financing in the host governments, and the kinds of debts and repayments that are going to be involved,” says Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy. “And all that infrastructure spanning out from Western China can be hostage to instability.”
emeritus：名誉教授
hostage：に制限される
一帯一路は、2014年11月に中華人民共和国で開催されたアジア太平洋経済協力首脳会議で、習近平総書記が提唱した経済圏構想である。その投資は9,000億ドルと途方も無いものであり、２６兆ドルの赤字のインフラ構築である。目玉はパキスタンを経由してインド洋に出る高速道路で、４６０億ドルも提供する。こうした超大型のプロジェクトはG-7とかG-20を凌ぐような組織となるだろう。
世界のGDPの４０％、人口の６５％をカバーする。米が入ってくれば世界全体に影響をおよぼすことになる。まさしく、気が遠くなるような大事業が起こる。１３０カ国が参加する会議というから、明らかに中国は世界の覇権を意識している。凄まじいことだ。昨今の中国の隆盛を見ていると、この先の１０年は中国が本当に世界の覇権を掌握してしまうかもしれない。
月曜日。今日は石油会がある。ではまた明日。
2017年05月13日
ロシアがシリアへの対応を中止することが出来ない理由
May 4, 2017 | 01:21 GMT
Why Russia Can't Quit SyriaYURI KOCHETKOV AFP May 4, 2017
ロシアがシリアへの対応を中止することが出来ない理由
It can be difficult to separate the important from unimportant on any given day. Reflections mean to do exactly that — by thinking about what happened today, we can consider what might happen tomorrow. In the resort town of Sochi, on the Black Sea coast, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed a possible exit strategy from Syria with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Today's meeting reinforces the urgency with which Russia is trying to extricate itself from the situation it has become mired in.
given：いつ何時でも
Reflections：熟慮
reinforces：より強固にする
extricate：抜け出す
mired：窮地に陥る
One of the topics up for discussion was the implementation of de-escalation zones — or so-called safe zones — in Syria, part of a proposal to advance the political negotiations on ending the ongoing conflict. Elsewhere in the region, however, Syrian rebels walked out of peace talks in the Kazakh capital of Astana on May 3, spoiling efforts to get Syrian belligerents to discuss a potential solution to the conflict. The move highlights the difficulties Russia is facing — and just how unlikely the Kremlin is to succeed in its plan of making a smooth departure.
belligerents：交戦相手
Russia's intervention in Syria, operating alongside Iran in support of Syrian loyalist forces, has succeeded in several ways. For one, Russia's involvement stabilized the battlefield and restored the advantage to Syrian troops. Furthermore, its entry into the conflict not only secured basing in the country but also provided a proving ground in which to season personnel and showcase Russian military hardware. Finally, the intervention has elevated Moscow's geopolitical heft, marking the Kremlin as a key player in the region.
basing：拠点とする
proving：はっきり示す
season：鍛える・適応させる
heft：影響力
Nevertheless, having played a major part in the conflict, Russia is now seeking to remove itself from the battlefield in a timely manner. For all the gains reaped from its involvement in the Syrian crisis, Moscow also understands the considerable costs — and, more important, that the advantages it has accrued thus far could easily be squandered over time, especially if the war drags on with no end in sight.
reaped：得る
accrued：生じる
thus far：これまでのところ
squandered：無駄にする
Moscow's relations with important rebel backers such as Turkey and the Gulf Cooperation Council have also been shaken, especially as Russia has intensified its support for Damascus. That support, moreover, has come at a price paid in blood and treasure. The rate of Russian military casualties has risen in recent months, largely as a result of its troops' increased involvement on the ground.
shaken：落ち着きを失う
Perhaps more important, though, Moscow is well aware that the longer it remains stuck in Syria, the less able it will be to reach a favorable and self-serving agreement. Russia has long tried to use its position in the conflict as a means to exact larger concessions from the United States and Europe, forcing them to the negotiating table. Yet as the Khan Sheikhoun chemical weapons attack carried out by Syrian aircraft illustrates, events can quickly expose the limits of Russia's influence in the country. Meanwhile, Russian troops continue to find themselves facing determined opposition forces, and Moscow has been beset by the same dilemmas the United States has faced in the past decade in Iraq and Afghanistan.
self-serving：私欲に走る
exact：要求する
determined：意志の強い
beset：悩まされる
Khan Sheikhoun chemical weapons attack：The Khan Shaykhun chemical attack took place on 4 April 2017 on the town of Khan Shaykhun in the Idlib Governorate of Syria. At the time of the attack, the town was under the control of Tahrir al-Sham, formerly known as the al-Nusra Front. The town was reported to have been struck by a heavy airstrike by government forces followed by massive civilian chemical poisoning. The release of the toxic gas, which included sarin, or a similar substance, killed at least 74 people and injured more than 557, according to the Idlib health authority. The attack was the deadliest use of chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war since the Ghouta chemical attack in 2013.
The attack was conducted by the forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad according to international human rights organizations and governments of the United States, United Kingdom, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, France, and Israel. The Assad government denied using any chemical weapons in the air strike. The Russian Defense Ministry said Syrian aircraft bombed a warehouse belonging to rebels which "may have contained a rebel chemical arms stockpile". In response, on 7 April, the United States launched 59 cruise missiles at Shayrat Air Base, which U.S. intelligence believed was the source of the attack.
In an attempt to avoid the quagmire scenario, Russia shifted its position late last year. Evidence of this emerged first during talks with the United States, and again as Moscow sought to take advantage of a detente with Turkey, edging toward a negotiated political solution buttressed by cease-fire initiatives. But Turkey was unwilling and unable to persuade an increasingly radicalized rebel landscape into making the concessions Russia sought. And all the while, Russia's intensifying involvement in the conflict served to undermine Ankara's mediation attempts. Moreover, the Syrian government, along with Iran, remained skeptical of Russian initiatives and motives, proving more willing to pursue a military solution to a conflict that is far more critical to Damascus' and Tehran's core interests.
quagmire：窮地
detente：緊張緩和
edging：少しずつ動かす
buttressed：強化する
mediation：調停
The reality is that a negotiated political solution to the Syrian conflict is more unlikely now than when Russia first began taking tentative steps toward an exit. Continued violence has undermined any faith left in the effectiveness of numerous declared cease-fires — truces that would have been a critical foundation to further negotiations. Meanwhile, rebel factions have grown more hard-line over time, displaying a remarkable resilience amid overwhelming firepower from the loyalists and their allies. It is increasingly apparent that even if the rebels were pushed back militarily, they would more likely resort to insurgent and guerilla tactics en masse than lay down their arms. At the same time, Russia’s ability to play a mediating role has been thoroughly weakened by its heavy air campaigns against rebel towns and villages — something the rebels prominently highlighted as they walked away from the Astana talks today.
faith：信頼
truces：休戦協定
factions：派閥争い
resilience：回復力
resort：に訴える
insurgent：反乱者
en masse：集団全員で
prominently：目立つように
Russia, along with Iran, has found itself stuck in an enduring conflict with no easy exit. Even as Moscow continues to ponder its escape, any negotiated settlement must ultimately serve the Kremlin's best interests, an objective that is proving increasingly difficult to achieve. Unable to entirely abandon Damascus and equally unwilling to give up its interests in Syria, Moscow's role in the dispute could hurt rather than help its attempts to improve critical relationships with nations such as the United States, Germany and Turkey. Just as the tides of war can turn on the battlefield, Russia's fortunes have changed in Syria, and not for the better. And as the Russian and Turkish presidents conclude their meeting in Sochi today, one question surely remains for the Kremlin: What is the viable endgame?
viable：実現可能な
ロシアがかってのアメリカのように、シリアの泥沼に嵌っている。抜け出ようとしているのだが、出来ない。今のままのシリアから手を引くことも、反乱軍の攻勢を抑えることも、アメリカ、ヨーロッパ、トルコとの関係を維持することもままならない。このままではロシアの今までの成果がなくなってしまう。
中東は米ソがどうあがいても、まとまらない。中東は中東に任せるしかないのだろう。トルコとイランとのバランスが気になるが、そうした外交での関与が一番いいのかもしれない。アメリカがイランとの関係を変化させようとしているが、それは危険だ。敵対してはいけない。トルコに対しても同様だ。エルドアンの専制体制を非難してはいけない。
日曜日。今日は本書きだ。ではまた明日。
