2017年06月

2017年06月22日

中国のアフリカでの取り組みがどのように西欧を打ち負かしているのか。

How China’s Approach Beats the West’s in Africa
Stephan Richter
SEPTEMBER 03, 2012

中国のアフリカでの取り組みがどのように西欧を打ち負かしているのか。

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent 10-day tour across Africa represented a strategic caving-in of sorts. In many of the places she visited, the Chinese had gotten there first. In fact, China is everywhere in Africa these days, both exploiting the continent’s vast natural riches and pursuing infrastructure projects long promised but never quite delivered by the West. 

caving-in :屈服する
sorts:みたいなもの・お粗末な

Building railroads from inland areas to the coast, with the eventual prospect of a network that spans sub-Saharan Africa? Putting in highways at affordable prices across the continent? Constructing state-of-the-art office complexes, within budgets that African nations can afford? 

These are all goals that African leaders have pursued for a long time. In the past, a toxic combination of corruption, murky ties between ex-colonizing countries (and their business elites) and the new rulers, and overly complex planning structures derailed project after project. Given the ability to deliver projects on time and on budget, the Chinese offer Africa’s governments and people a clean-cut deal: If you work with us, we will build it — period. No ifs, ands, or buts. 

toxic:有毒の・とても不快な
overly:過度に

Given that Africa’s economic growth has long been stunted by the lack of a dependable internal transportation infrastructure — within countries and among them — this is more than a tempting offer. It represents an opportunity of historic proportions. 

stunted:未発達の
dependable:信頼できる
tempting:魅力的な
proportions:歴史的な規模

Yes, the continent has airports and cell phones galore, but due to the wholly insufficient rail and highway infrastructure, trade is still hampered in a manner reminiscent of Europe before 1820. In that sense, the initiatives undertaken by the Chinese in Africa now are the historical equivalent of what the Napoleonic wars brought to a country like Germany. They are a long overdue wake-up call to get rid of outdated traditions in order to advance to the age of modern commerce and trade. 

galore:たくさんの
hampered:阻止される
reminiscent:昔を思い出させる
overdue:期限が過ぎて

Without making light of the drawbacks of how the Chinese operate, including the fact that they rely mostly on their own workforces even for projects deep in Africa’s interior, theirs is a vision that is very distinct from that of the West over the past 50 years.The formula the West applied to post-independence, post-1960 Africa was one that focused on democracy-building over market-building. The Chinese approach it just the other way around. And whatever the preferences of Westerners, it is clearly Africans who have to make the choice of whether to go with democracy first or markets first. 

drawbacks:欠点・障害
distinct:全く異なった

In the abstract, it is always preferable to focus on democratic structures. However, in countries where poverty is still rampant, an uncomfortable counterargument can be made, based on the track record of the past 50 years. In much of Africa, political growth remains as stunted as economic development. Political maturity — in the sense of a robust enough democracy for elections to result in actual power change — for the most part only works in countries like Ghana, where economic development is already advanced and broad-based. 

counterargument:反対意見
stunted:未発達の

Focusing on market-building first can empower a budding middle class — which provides a check to the vestiges of often clan-based political and economic feudalism. In this approach, economic development leads political development. That is pretty much how things transpired in Europe over the centuries. There, economic empowerment led the merchant classes to demand increased political rights, which eventually put the continent on the road to full-blown democracy. 

budding:始まったばかりの
vestiges:ごくわずかの
transpired:起こる
empowerment:能力を高めること
full-blown:本格的な

For Westerners. it is confounding to see that theirs somehow ended up being the “ideological” approach. Focusing on ideology, mind you, was supposed to be the Communists’ gig, due to their inability to offer anything meaningful in terms of material goods. 

confounding:困惑させる
gig:仕事

And yet, it was the United States that peddled democracy and human rights — a.k.a., broadly speaking, ideology. Faced with the negative fallout of that, Secretary Clinton has recently sought out a more balanced approach, focusing on business (and opportunity) over human rights (and hectoring). 

peddled:広めて回る
a.k.a.:also known as 別名
fallout:副産物
hectoring:いじめる・威張り散らす

Meanwhile, the Chinese have kept building bridges, railroads, and conference centers. Ironically, it is the Chinese — not the Americans — who can make a compelling case that their focus in Africa has been not on spreading ideology but on the practical business of securing natural resources and creating future customers and trading partners. 

compelling:否定し難い・注目せざるを得ない

Such a customer focus, of course, runs fully counter to Marxist doctrine. Better yet, the Chinese can call on the estimable Adam Smith as the crown witness for their strategy in Africa. In assessing the economic strategies of great empires, he wrote: 

counter:反対の
estimable:賞賛に値する
crown witness:検察側証人

To found a great empire for the sole purpose of raising up a people of customers may at first appear a project fit only for a nation of shopkeepers. It is however a project altogether unfit for a nation of shopkeepers — but extremely fit for a nation whose government is influenced by shopkeepers. 

shopkeepers:英国民 小売商人

And indeed, as the African continent proves, the Chinese Communist Party is spreading its wings around the world via commercial, rather than military, means. It is thus very much a government influenced by shopkeepers, one that uses their vast range of activities for its own alliance-building purposes. 

アフリカは中国が席巻している。イデオロギーよりも橋、鉄道、高速道路、高層ビルを安価に作っている。19世紀のドイツのようだ。西欧はなんだかんだと言ってきたが、賄賂だけで何もしなかった。クリントンが色々アフリカで言っても、中国の投資にはかなわない。アフリカの政府はまずは彼らの関心はインフラ整備だ。イデオロギーはそれからだ。

まさしく、いま中国は本格的に一帯一路の戦略を打ち上げてきている。このアフリカも視野に入れている。日本もアメリカも寄せ付けない勢いでアフリカにその地位を固めている。もう何処も入れないだろう。彼らは民主主義よりも、国家インフラのほうが優先だ。

金曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:43コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年06月21日

民主主義を後退させる力

The Forces Driving Democratic Recession
By Jay Ogilvy
May 24, 2017  stratfor

民主主義を後退させる力

Protesters hungry for democracy take to the streets of Hong Kong, where election outcomes are tightly controlled by China. Liberal democracy around the world has found itself in decline.

Liberal democracy is in retreat across the globe. Following decades of expansion since the 1950s, the spread of democracy hit a wall in the new millennium. Freedom House, using carefully crafted metrics, has measured a decline in democracy and freedom worldwide. Definitions are important: Does the fact of elections, even where the outcome is autocratically determined, qualify a country as a democracy? By most measures and definitions, there are now about 25 fewer democratic countries than there were at the turn of the millennium. 

millennium:千年
Freedom House:フリーダム・ハウスは1941年にナチ・ドイツに対抗して自由と民主主義を監視する機関として設立された。また毎年世界人権状況白書を発行している。
crafted:精巧に作る
autocratically:独裁的に

Founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy Larry Diamond wrote a 2015 paper, "Facing up to the Democratic Recession." Diamond asks, reasonably enough, "Why have freedom and democracy been regressing in many countries? The most important and pervasive answer is, in brief, bad governance." But this tells us very little. How and why has governance been so bad? 

reasonably:概ね・適切に

Diamond's Stanford colleague, Francis Fukuyama was once so confident that democracy had definitively defeated its two main rivals, fascism and communism, that he famously stuck his neck out claiming "the end of history." This year, 2017, Fukuyama stated in an interview with Edward Luce, author of the just published book, The Retreat of Western Liberalism, "Everything I've been working on for the past year suddenly feels trivial. The only topic I can think about is the future of liberal democracy." Fukuyama fears that the global democratic recession may turn into a global democratic depression. 

stìck [shòot] one's néck òut:自ら危ない目に遭うようなことをする[言う].
trivial:とるにたらない

There are a number of reasons, not just one, for the recent democratic recession. With Luce's help, I'll enumerate a few, but toward the end, I'll take issue with Luce and others regarding the influence of artificial intelligence technologies on the future of work, employment and politics. 

enumerate:列挙する

Globalization, Immigration, Populism and Inequality
As Luce and others have noted, these four phenomena are interrelated. Part of globalization is about trade, but when people as well as goods cross borders, whether as travelers or refugees, then lives are touched and customs challenged. As is clear from both Brexit and Donald Trump's victory, part of the pressure toward populism comes from lower- and middle-income, less educated people who feel their lives and jobs are threatened by immigrants and low-wage workers in other countries. To repeat myself yet again, for the rich, the world is their oyster; for the poor, the world is their competitor. 

yet again:何度も繰り返した後にさらにもう一度
oyster:思うがままだ

Hillary Clinton may well have lost the election as a result of her use of a single word: deplorables. In England, they call them "the left-behinds," a phrase that figured centrally in a column not about England but about Islam and the post-Colonial legacy in Asia. When the gap between rich and poor yawns wide, when the middle class gets hollowed out, when economic insecurity strains the social contract, then populists call for a strongman to stand up to the corrupt elite, and democracy suffers. Luce quotes American sociologist Barrington Moore: "No bourgeoisie, no democracy." 

deplorables:嘆かわしい
left-behinds:取り残された人たち
yawns:口を大きく開ける
hollowed:くり抜く
strains:悪化させる
bourgeoisie:資本家階級

Though Luce doesn't lump them together as I do here, he captures the pace of change over recent decades in three different fivefold increases: "Since 1970, Asia's per-capita incomes have increased fivefold." "The asset value of the world's leading billionaires has risen fivefold since 1988." "Following China's WTO accession in 2001, America's trade deficit with China has leapt almost fivefold." These three fivefold increases are not unrelated. 

lump:一緒くたにする

While the four phenomena under this subtitle — globalization, immigration, populism and inequality — are tightly interrelated in self-reinforcing feedback loops, there are other factors behind the democratic recession that can be identified more discretely. 

self-reinforcing:自己増強型の
discretely:別々の

The Iraq War and Its Legacy
Luce doesn't mince words: "It is hard to overstate the damage the Iraq War did to America's global soft power — and to the credibility of the West's democratic mission." 

not mince:率直に言う
credibility:威信

And the damage continues: "[I]n the eyes of the Islamists, Trump has simply dropped the pretense. The West was always at war with Islam. Trump has removed the mask. At a moment when ISIS is on the military retreat in Iraq and Syria, Trump has made their drive for fresh recruits much easier."  Democracy, it turns out, is difficult to promote at the end of a gun.

pretense:口実
drive:取り組み
fresh recruits:新兵

China and the Economic Recession
These two phenomena are importantly linked precisely to the extent that undemocratic China did not suffer economically nearly as much as the world's democracies. Is there a lesson here for countries in Africa, where none qualify as effectively functioning democracies and many are receiving aid and investment from China?  Luce quotes Andrew Nathan, a leading China-watcher: "By demonstrating that advanced modernization can be combined with authoritarian rule, the Chinese regime has given hope to authoritarian rulers everywhere." 

So, to briefly summarize Luce before taking issue with what he has to say about technology, all of these factors, not just one, have come together to create a kind of perfect storm for democracy: globalization, immigration, populism, inequality, the Iraq War and its legacy, China, and the economic recession. These are some of the reasons for the "bad governance" that Diamond invokes. 

invokes:訴える

The Threat of Technological Unemployment
Luce is hardly alone in noting that new technologies, particularly robots with artificial intelligence (AI), pose a greater threat to low-skilled workers than do foreigners. "The latter-day effects of globalization have shaken Western solidarity. The future of artificial intelligence poses challenges that are likely to be orders of magnitude greater." 

solidarity:結束

Orders of magnitude greater? Granted, the newest wave of automation poses a threat to employment in ways that earlier technological advances did not, but accurately estimating the scale of the threat is important. Why? Because of the connection between (un)employment and populism: "Europe and America's populist right wants to turn the clock back to the days when men were men and the West ruled. It is prepared to sacrifice the gains of globalization — and risk conflict with China — to protect jobs that have already vanished. Populists have little to say about automation, though it is a far larger threat to people's jobs than trade." 

When I say that Luce is not alone in his fear of what artificial intelligence can do to eliminate jobs, I'm thinking not only about figures like Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking, who have voiced their fears about AI, but also the fascinating and very popular work of Yuval Noah Harari, author of the best-seller, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, and, just recently, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. 

Like Luce, Musk and Hawking, Harari is alarmed at the prospect of technologically caused unemployment. But Harari's rationale is even more radical. Taking the very long view from 70,000 years ago in his first book, in his latest volume he contemplates a not-too-distant future featuring nothing less than the obsolescence of humanity as we know it. 

rationale:理論的根拠
obsolescence:廃れること
humanity:人類

The stakes for politics are high: "When genetic engineering and artificial intelligence reveal their full potential, liberalism, democracy and free markets might become as obsolete as flint knives, tape cassettes, Islam and communism."  Harari's books are thought-provoking. No wonder they are popular. The writing is witty and often perceptive. But like Luce, I think he seriously overestimates the potential of artificial intelligence and therefore also overestimates the degree of its threat to democracy. 

genetic engineering:遺伝子工学
flint:石英の類
provoking:挑発する
No wonder:あたり前だ
witty:機知に富んだ
perceptive:鋭い

Harari draws on a particular strand of techno-utopian post-humanist literature that is more controversial than he makes it sound. According to some but hardly all researchers in Silicon Valley, there is certainly nothing like a soul inside the brain. Not even a mind. Not even a self. According to some, but hardly all researchers, we are nothing but stacks of algorithms running on wetware rather than silicon. Harari buys into the computational metaphor for how the brain works, but the computational metaphor is contested by many, from philosophers like Hubert Dreyfus and John Searle to anthropologists like Terrence Deacon and polymath genius inventor of virtual reality Jaron Lanier, whose book You Are Not a Gadget states its thesis in its title. 

strand:要素
wetware:人間の頭脳
metaphor:象徴
contested:論争する
anthropologists:人類学者
polymath:博識家
genius:天才

The debate between humanists and post-humanists is profound. It is ultimately about what it is to be a human being. Is there something special about us? If not a soul, then something else? What differentiates us from other animals? Or from our computers? Answers to such questions have political import because they touch on issues of human dignity and human rights, and/or the rights of animals. Given his eagerness to demystify humanism, it's not surprising that Harari is much preoccupied with the suffering of farm animals. 

demystify:わかりやすくする
preoccupied:夢中にする
farm animals:家畜 1945年8月17日に刊行されたジョージ・オーウェルの小説。動物たちが飲んだくれの農場主を追い出して理想的な共和国を築こうとするが、指導者の豚が独裁者と化し、恐怖政治へ変貌していく過程を描く。

But Harari presents us with too stark a choice when it comes to our understanding of ourselves as human beings: Either we buy into the new religion of humanism and use it to stoke the old religious fires, OR we accept a scientific materialism that robs the world of all transcendent purpose and meaning. 

stark:厳しいい選択
stoke:燃料をくべる
robs:奪う
transcendent:宇宙や人間の存在を超えた

An Alternate Path? 
But there is a third way. The science of emergent systems, particularly Deacon's big book, Incomplete Nature: How Mind Emerged from Matter, offers an up-from-the-bottom, perfectly naturalistic account of how purpose and meaning come to be in a universe that, prior to the emergence of life, was utterly without purpose. 

naturalistic:自然主義の

Again, why is this such a big deal, and therefore why are the questions raised by Harari so important? Think of this third path of emergence as a philosophically profound and scientifically respectable response to the deep anxieties of the "deplorables" and "left-behinds." Their old time religion is under siege in the new world. They are suspicious of science and evolution. They have a basic intuition that there is something wrong with the scientific and godless values of the elites, and in an important sense they are right. The artificial intelligence-driven, post-humanist future promoted by Ray Kurzweil and others is a cold, cold place. 

siege:批判され続けている

Harari criticizes thinkers like Richard Dawkins and Stephen Pinker who on the one hand embrace the coldness of the computational metaphor for mind but on the other preserve a humanistic warmth by performing, "breathtaking intellectual somersaults that miraculously land them back in the eighteenth century [with] … Locke, Rousseau and Jefferson." 

preserve:守る
somersaults:180度変更

"However once the heretical scientific insights are translated into everyday technology, routine activities and economic structures, it will become increasingly difficult to sustain this double-game, and we — or our heirs — will probably require a brand-new package of religious beliefs and political institutions." High stakes indeed. We owe Harari a debt for drawing out the potential political implications of artificial intelligence technology. Fortunately for most of us, AI is not as smart as Harari makes it sound. Fast, yes. Massively capacious, for sure. But as Searle and Deacon show in different but definitive ways, the "intelligence" achieved by AI is something quite other than human intelligence. We may not be obsolete all that soon. So our current package of religious beliefs and political institutions may last us longer than Luce or Harari would have us believe. 

heretical:異端の
double-game:表裏のある行動
stakes:一か八かの手段
capacious:広々とした
definitive:一番信頼できる・決定的な

民主主義が退化しているという議論のなかで、人類とか宗教とかもっと大きな世界を意識して、この現実を、そして最近出現してきた人工知能を見極める必要がある。人間の知性をどう考えるのかといった視点で見て行くと、現在の民主主義はGlobalization, Immigration, Populism and Inequalityの4つの現象が相互に関わり合っていることがわかる。こうした現象の背後にあるものは人類の歴史を辿ってそもそも我々が求めるべきものは何かということだ。技術がどんなに進歩しても、我々人間としての本来求むべきものはかわらない。

この記事は哲学的で、民主主義とは何かを論じてはいない。日本人は神を持ちだされるとわけがわからなくなってしまう。宗教を信じていないからだ。彼が言いたかったのはそもそも人間が求めている原点とは何か、そこに立ち返って、民主主義を見直すべきだと言いたいのだろう。

木曜日。今日はインタートレードの内藤さんと会食。夜は日本郵政の淵江さんとの会食もある。でまた明日。

swingby_blog at 22:23コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年06月20日

失業 救われなかった仕事(2)

Autor's research shows that American workers who lost their manufacturing jobs as a result of trade shocks, like competition from Chinese imports, are likely to make less money and collect more disability benefits over the ensuing decade. He predicts a similar fate for the women and men at Rexnord. "Unless they get very lucky, there won't be another employer out there saying, 'Great, I can use a few more ball-bearings guys,'" says Autor. 

ensuing:続いて起こる

Even the rescued Carrier jobs may be vulnerable. In an interview about the deal with CNBC in December, UTC chairman and CEO Greg Hayes said a $16 million investment to automate tasks in the plant would ultimately reduce the workforce. And the company is moving ahead with the closure of another plant in Huntington, Ind., which workers had hoped would be included in the Trump deal. When it shutters by early next year, some 700 people will be laid off. "There's no easy way out of this," says Georgetown's Carnevale, who served on national workplace commissions under Presidents Reagan, Clinton and George W. Bush. 

So far, the Trump Administration's most notable move on trade has been pulling the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 2016 free-trade agreement among a dozen countries including Australia and Japan. The President also rolled back Obama-era environmental and workplace safety reporting regulations in the name of spurring job growth. In addition, he has appointed a number of business-friendly Cabinet Secretaries. 

spurring:を促進する
Cabinet Secretaries:閣僚

But after pledging to put an end to the nation's economic carnage, Trump has softened some of his most aggressive stances on trade. The President no longer publicly calls China a currency manipulator, a sign that he recognizes the value of the strategic relationship between the world's two largest economies. And after consulting with the leaders of Canada and Mexico, he has agreed not to terminate NAFTA, though he does want to renegotiate the sweeping trade agreement among the three nations that has been in place since 1994. Nor, despite his Rexnord tweet, has Trump backed including the border adjustment tax, a levy on domestic sales and imports favored by House Speaker Paul Ryan, as part of the GOP tax-reform effort. 

carnage:大虐殺
sweeping:全面的な
levy :課税

Nevertheless, manufacturers see cause for optimism. The U.S. economy has added some 41,000 manufacturing jobs since February, and large firms such as GM and Hyundai have announced new investments in U.S. factories--often with the White House's encouragement. Thanks in part to regulatory changes and proposed tax cuts, the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) says 93% of member companies it surveyed have a positive outlook on the economy--a 20-year high. "What manufacturers see is an agenda from the federal level that is focused on growth," says Jay Timmons, NAM's president and CEO. 

Many economists are far more skeptical. They say the nature of manufacturing work has fundamentally changed and they don't believe tax cuts and protectionism can deliver a Rust Belt revival. "Those are not the policy solutions of the future," says John Van Reenen, a professor of applied economics at MIT. Pointing to the U.S. trade wars of the 1930s that worsened the Great Depression, he says, "Those are the policy failures of the past." 

applied:応用経済

The trend lines are apparent in a Congressional Research Service report released in early May, which shows that the number of manufacturing workers with graduate degrees increased 35% between 2000 and 2016, while the percentage of workers with just a high school diploma fell by more than a third. "Even if increased manufacturing output leads to additional employment," the report concludes, "it is likely to generate little of the routine production work historically performed by workers with lower education levels."

jobs-that-were-not-saved-factory-inzajeano-latif-04
Kyle Beaman and his wife Phyllis, at home in Indianapolis; Beaman, 62, lost his job in April Inzajeano Latif for TIME 

At Rexnord, the layoffs have started to come in waves, every few weeks bringing news of more colleagues lost. "It's like buying a ticket for the Titanic when you know the ending," says Brian Reed, who has worked at the plant for 24 years. "You get up every day, and it's just miserable." Rexnord is offering severance packages of one week's pay for every year worked at the company. Employees who have worked there at least 15 years and whose age and years of service add up to 75 can start drawing on their pension as soon as they're laid off. Everyone else has to hang on until they turn 65. 

severance :解雇の退職手当
hang:じっと待つ

While they wait, the plant has been cleaved by the debate over training their replacements. John Leonard, 56, and Mark Elliott, 52, worked side by side for more than two decades, spending more time together than they did with their families. Elliott accepted the offer. Leonard thought they needed to refuse to help out with training as long-shot leverage to save their gigs. The friends stopped talking for two months as a result. "It's all about the money," Elliott says of his choice. The Mexican workers, he says, "didn't steal those jobs." 

cleaved:突っ切って進む
long-shot leverage:望みの薄い投資
gigs:仕事

For others, it's a matter of putting pride ahead of paying the mortgage. "It's just a moral issue," says Reed. "You're helping the company that ripped the life from under you be successful." As employee John Sullender explains it, "They've knocked us down as far as we can be knocked down. I have enough dignity--I'm not going to do that." 

ripped:剥ぎ取る

Between sips of whiskey at his friend's place, Brian Bousum takes the more diplomatic view. He turned down the training offer--but not because he couldn't use the money. Bousum lost that nice house after his divorce, and after breaking up with his girlfriend he has temporarily become a middle-aged couch surfer. He will likely be laid off just months before being able to tap into his pension. 

couch surfer:知り合いの家に泊まり歩く若者
tap:取り出す

"How can you blame them for getting every damn dime out of the company they can get?" Bousum asks. And though he couldn't bring himself to teach his replacement the skills he's developed over more than 20 years, he knows this isn't the Mexican workers' fault. "It can't be easy for them to be in a place where most people don't care for them," Bousum says. 

What he'll miss most about Rexnord is working alongside his son, taking a moment to pray together every day. There is some government money available for retraining, but Bousum is skeptical about his ability to transition as a middle-aged machinist with a high school diploma. Though for decades, that was good enough. 

After voting twice for Barack Obama, Bousum pulled the lever for Trump. He liked that Trump was at least talking about reviving American manufacturing and restoring the middle class. Now, Bousum is praying for Trump to make good--even if he knows the faith may not be rewarded."I still have hope that something will change, something will happen," Bousum says. "Donald Trump's a millionaire. He doesn't have to worry about hope and faith. But a blue collar guy like me, if you don't have hope and faith, what do you got?" 

faith:約束

アメリカの単純労働者の悲惨な状況を説明している。技術を持っていない学歴のない労働者は解雇されたら、再就職の道がない。年金がもらえる年齢であれば、まだいいが、そうでなければどうしようもない。トランプがこうした労働者を救うために、企業がメキシコに行くのを阻止しようとしているが、それも時間の問題だ。課税をゆるくしても、結局、ロボット化が進めば一緒だ。それでもトランプを信じている人はたくさんいる。彼はどうしようとするのだろうか。

水曜日。今日は海野塾の日だ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:26コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年06月19日

失業 救われなかった仕事

UNEMPLOYMENT
The Jobs That Weren't Saved
Sean Gregory / Indianapolis
May 18, 2017

失業
救われなかった仕事


jobs-that-were-not-saved-factory-inzajeano-latif-01


Deep bags sag under Brian Bousum's eyes as he sips whiskey and water in a friend's apartment on a recent Sunday evening. Fifty-one years old, he has spent the past two decades operating screw machines and setting up drill presses at the Rexnord ball-bearing plant on the west side of Indianapolis, a mile from the Carrier factory made famous by President Trump. 

bags:目元のたるみ
sag:くぼむ
screw:ネジ
drill press:ボール盤
Carrier factory :Carrier, the HVAC company that since 1979 has been a subsidiary of the larger United Technologies conglomerate, announced several months ago that it was going to close two facilities in Indiana and shift production to a new plant the company is building in Mexico. The move was telegraphed well in advance as part of the company’s obligations to its workforce, but in a practical sense that only made the sting worse. The plants weren't closing because Carrier was losing money hand over fist or because the products they made were obsolete. It was simply cold-hearted medium-term economic planning — it would be cheaper to do it in Mexico. 

On the campaign trail, the Carrier plant closures became a signature talking point for Donald Trump. He argued that it was one concrete example of the overwhelming harm done to American interests by bad trade deals. And as liberal economist Dean Baker writes, it is roughly correct that facilitating the relocation of industrial activity from the US to Mexico was one of the goals of the NAFTA deal. Then this week came some amazing news: Trump, and Vice President-elect Mike Pence, convinced Carrier to stay in Indiana. It was a huge PR coup for Trump and set the stage for a triumphant public event in Indiana on Thursday.

For a guy who didn't go to college, he says, the work is hard to beat: the union offered job security and enough overtime to make up to $75,000 a year, a salary that enabled him to buy his own home with an in-ground pool. Bousum's son joined him at the plant after graduating from high school. 

beat :解決する
job security :雇用の保障
in-ground pool:自家製のプール

By the end of the summer, however, they'll both be out of a job. Rexnord, a $1.9 billion company based in Milwaukee, is closing the Indianapolis plant and moving its operations to Mexico. There, labor costs about $3 an hour, rather than the $25 Rexnord pays its longest-serving union employees in Indiana. The move will put more than 300 Americans out of work. Before that happens, some of the workers here are taking advantage of Rexnord's offer of an extra $4 to $10 an hour to train their Mexican replacements. Others are too pained and too proud. 

The outsourcing of America's factory jobs is nothing new, of course. Since 1999, the nation's manufacturing workforce has dropped 28%, from 17.3 million jobs to 12.4 million, as companies flee to countries with cheaper labor costs. Between 2001 and 2016, the U.S. had a net loss of nearly 54,000 manufacturing businesses. In those that remain, more and more work is being done by robots and advanced computers, which are usually overseen by engineers, programmers and others with at least four-year college degrees. 

"This is a runaway train," says Anthony Carnevale, director of the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. "In the end, technology and global markets improve productivity and benefit all of us. Sadly, it hurts some of us even more." 

runaway:逃亡

Donald Trump promised to make the pain stop, and he owes his election in part to the Midwestern factory workers who believed he would make good on the pledge. "I absolutely got sucked into this message," says Rexnord machinist Gary Canter, 46, who has started delivering pizza for Papa John's three nights a week to sock away extra money before his impending layoff. For Bousum, the rationale was simple: "I voted for Trump based on the fact that he could save our jobs." 

sucked:巻き込まれる
sock away:金を溜め込む
impendin:差し迫った
rationale:理論的根拠

What Donald Trump Got Wrong About Unemployment 
They had reason to hope in early December, just weeks after Trump's victory, when the President-elect announced a deal with nearby heating- and cooling-equipment manufacturer Carrier to keep 1,100 jobs in Indianapolis rather than move them to Mexico (although some 300 of those "saved" jobs were white collar positions that were never slated to move). The next day, Trump turned his ire toward Rexnord, which had already announced its relocation plan. 

slated:する予定である
ire:怒り

"Rexnord of Indiana is moving to Mexico and rather viciously firing all of its 300 workers," the President-elect tweeted. "This is happening all over our country. No more!" More than five months later, Rexnord is pressing ahead with its move. Senator Joe Donnelly, a Democrat from Indiana, who has discussed the closure with the President, cautions that a last-minute reprieve is unlikely. "I don't want to create false hope," Donnelly tells TIME. 

viciously:残忍に
press ahead:困難を排しながらすすめる
reprieve:一時的な猶予

"This has been a very difficult decision and we understand its impact on our associates, their families and the Indianapolis community," Rexnord said in a statement. But the company, which netted $68 million in the 2016 fiscal year, noted that "difficult decisions are a part of today's business environment. To be a viable company that contributes to economic growth, we must meet customers' needs with high-quality products at competitive prices." 

associate:仲間
netted:純益を上げる
viable :成長可能な

If Trump's Carrier deal was a reminder of how the bully pulpit could be used to make the private sector bend, Rexnord's closure shows its limits--and offers a lesson in the challenges of reversing a global economic trend decades in the making. When Trump tweeted about Rexnord again, on May 7, he said the deal to leave the country was made during his predecessor's Administration, and alluded to levying "big" taxes on the Mexico-made goods the company will sell in the U.S. 

reminder:思い出させること
bully:ガキ大将
pulpit:教会の説教壇
bend:屈服する
in the making:発展過程にある
alluded:についてほのめかす

But that will not revive an entire way of life in the Midwest--or address the host of knotty economic, social and political issues that come with its demise. "The blue collar life is all I've known," Bousum says, drawing from his glass of whiskey. "How the hell am I going to survive?" 

revive:蘇生させる
host :多数の
knotty:解決困難な
demise:終了
drawing:ゆっくりと引く 

Rexnord Plant at dusk - Indianapolis.JPG
After 58 years of manufacturing bearings at this plant in west Indianapolis, Rexnord is moving its operations to Monterrey, Mexico Inzajeano Latif for TIME 

Every workplace has a third place, where colleagues go to celebrate a promotion, toast a retirement or simply blow off steam. For many at Carrier and Rexnord, that place is Sully's, a sports bar across from the Carrier plant, where long-necks run $1 on special. Between shifts recently, TJ Bray and Kyle Beaman settled into a booth there to unwind. Beaman, 62, worked in quality control at Rexnord, while Bray, 33, started working at Carrier 15 years ago, one day before his high school graduation. 

toast:乾杯する
a third place:3番目の場所
blow off steam:憂さを晴らす
long-necks:細長い形のビール
unwind:くつろぐ

A year ago, Bray thought he would be the one out of a job. Carrier's parent company, United Technologies (UTC), announced plans to close its Indianapolis plant and move its jobs to Monterrey, Mexico. Then Trump got involved. At campaign rallies, the candidate relentlessly hammered the company as a job killer, turning Carrier into a symbol of the devastation he said globalization had wreaked on the nation's workers. 

wreaked:損害をもたらす

After Trump was elected, UTC, which has done billions of dollars in business with the Department of Defense, agreed to keep union jobs in Indianapolis in exchange for a tax-incentive package and, presumably, an end to the President's barrage. "I am thankful to the President for what he did," says Bray. But even grateful workers worry that their paychecks may not survive future rounds of automation or cost cutting. Torrie Bennett, a 13-year plant veteran, says the mood at Carrier now "is like being in an ugly relationship. They've said they want to leave you. So you're on guard." 

presumably:おそらく
grateful:嬉しく思う
guard:用心して

Trump's intervention reinforced the expectation that he can prevent other companies from moving manufacturing jobs overseas. Asked what he would say to the President if he had the chance, Beaman, who worked his last day at Rexnord in April, is frank: "Can you help us? If you can't help us, be man enough to tell us. A lot of people are banking on this. Donald Trump, can you save us?" 

frank:包み隠さない
banking:あてにする
man:男らしく 

America's manufacturing roots reach back almost to the dawn of the nation. Samuel Slater, a cotton spinner's apprentice from England, opened what's considered to be America's first textile factory in Pawtucket, R.I., in 1790. Nine children pushed foot treadles to make spindles of yarn. From that tiny operation grew tens of thousands of factories making everything from the cement lining the Erie Canal to the tracks for the transcontinental railroad to the assembly-line Model Ts that ushered in the automobile age. 

dawn:黎明期
apprentice:見習工
treadles:ミシンの踏み板
yarn:紡績糸
ushered:魁となる

By 1943, in the midst of World War II, nearly 4 in 10 of America's nonagricultural workers were employed in manufacturing, producing steel, ships and aircraft for the U.S. war effort; later, such workers produced homes, cars and air conditioners for the ascendant postwar middle class. The jobs were often steady and unionized, the pay good, and the requirements rarely more than a high school diploma and a solid work ethic. 

ascendant:上昇する
solid:確固とした
work ethic:労働倫理・労働意欲

jobs-that-were-not-saved-factory-inzajeano-latif-03
Don Zering, Rexnord’s union rep, at the United Steelworkers Local 1999; he’s worked at the company for 44 years Inzajeano Latif for TIME 

rep:代表

But all that started to die in the early 1980s. Some 19.5 million Americans held manufacturing jobs in 1979, an all-time high. By 1983, the figure was already down to about 16.7 million. By 2024, according to projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 7.1% of Americans will work in manufacturing. 

The reasons are many, but the prime culprits are globalization and automation. In 1991, China accounted for 2.3% of the world's manufacturing exports. In 2001, the country joined the World Trade Organization, and by 2013, China's share of global exports was 18.8%, according to a 2016 study in the Annual Review of Economics. Countries such as Mexico and the Philippines have also increased their exports. Labor in these markets tends to be substantially cheaper than in the U.S., and trade deals like NAFTA make it easy for American companies to produce goods in far-flung locales. 

culprits:原因
far-flung:遠く離れた
locales:場所

Man walking in center of road, carrying suitcase and jacket, rear view

To economists, however, America's shrinking manufacturing jobs have less to do with free trade than with robots. The U.S. still produces world-class airplanes, car parts and heavy machinery. Companies just need fewer people to make them. The result, according to the Brookings Institution, is that whereas it took 25 jobs to generate $1 million in manufacturing output in 1980, today it takes just 6.5 jobs. Many of the nation's factories are more productive than ever, and there is growing demand for workers in so-called advanced manufacturing roles. From 2013 to 2015, 132,000 such jobs were added, according to Brookings. 

But these positions increasingly require specialized technical training after high school, with preference often going to those with degrees in science, technology, engineering and math. And the work will be less about fitting pieces together manually than overseeing the robots that do it. Today, according to research from the Boston Consulting Group, robots perform about 10% of manufacturing work around the world. By 2025, they are projected to account for about 25%. "High-skill workers in factories will be managing processes," says David Autor, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), "rather than showing off manual dexterity." 

dexterity:手先の器用さ

トランプが製造業の労働者の雇用をいくら守ろうとしても、アメリカの製造業の労働市場は減少していく。海外との賃金格差とロボット化がどんどん進行していく。単純労働はだんだんその需要が減少し、ロボットを監視するような技能労働者が必要になっていく。トランプが約束した雇用は確保されない。彼はどうするのだろうか。

火曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 20:08コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年06月18日

FOXニュースの視聴率が落ちてきたのはビル・オライリーが原因ではなくて、ドナルド・トランプが原因だ。

The start of Donald Trump’s presidency was kind to Fox. After eight long years under Barack Obama, right-leaning viewers flocked to their go-to channel to bask in his inauguration and extremely short-lived honeymoon. In recent weeks, however, Mr Trump has been buffeted by scandal following his firing of James Comey, the director of the FBI. In response, audiences thirsty for negative coverage of the president—whose approval rating is now 16 percentage points underwater—are gleefully tuning in to MSNBC, Fox’s left-leaning competitor. In contrast, the torrent of negative headlines about Mr Trump may have made his supporters less likely to watch cable news at all. The overall pattern is impossible to mistake: each point of net approval rating the president loses has corresponded to a loss of some 20,500 prime-time viewers aged 25 to 54 for Fox, and a gain of nearly 2,300 for MSNBC. 

flocked:群れをなす
bask:浸る
buffeted:翻弄する 
underwater:水面下で
gleefully:大喜びの
torrent:の嵐・連発

Moreover, the head-in-the-sand approach of Fox’s conservative prime-time anchors may have lulled many of those who remained loyal to the channel to sleep. Mr Carlson has downplayed investigations into ties between Mr Trump’s presidential campaign and Russia’s efforts to manipulate the 2016 election as “Russia hysteria”. And Sean Hannity, the last man standing from the network’s old line-up and Mr Trump’s most loyal defender in the media, has filled his airtime by drumming up conspiracy theories about a murdered staffer for the Democratic party. Fox has subsequently retracted its claims about the case. 

lulled:眠りを誘う
downplayed:過小評価する
hysteria:過剰反応
staffer:行政職員

News cycles move quickly, and even a former reality-television star like Mr Trump cannot command the narrative all the time. When a big story that did not reflect negatively on the president broke on May 22nd—the suicide-bombing at a pop concert in Manchester, England—Fox’s ratings shot back up. But in the long run, the business and political agendas of openly partisan media outlets may well be irreconcilable. The easiest way to win the ratings wars is to have the presidency held by the opposite party, so that furious ideologues know where to turn to stew over the latest outrage from the White House. 

irreconcilable:対立が折り合いのつかない
stew:気をもむ

FOXニュースはトランプの方を持っているが、トランプがFBI長官のコーメイを罷免したことで、大衆はFOXニュースから他のニュースに鞍替えしている。MSNBCは大喜びだ。トランプのおかげで、FOXニュースは視聴者を失っている。大統領が変わらない限り、視聴率を戻すのは無理だろう。

月曜日。今朝は朝会がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 20:13コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

2017年06月17日

FOXニュースの視聴率が落ちてきたのはビル・オライリーが原因ではなくて、ドナルド・トランプが原因だ。

Fox News’s once-unquestioned dominance of cable news looks increasingly tenuous
The conservative channel has Donald Trump, not Bill O’Reilly, to blame for its fall in the ratings
May 24th 2017by THE DATA TEAM 

FOXニュースがケーブルニュースでかっては独占的な人気があったが、ますます微妙になってきている。
この保守的なチャンネルの視聴率が落ちてきたのはビル・オライリーが原因ではなくて、ドナルド・トランプが原因だ。

tenuous:もろい・微妙な
Bill O’Reilly:ビル・オライリーは、FOXニュースのニュース番組、『ジ・オライリー・ファクター』の司会者である。ニューヨーク州ニューヨーク市生まれのアイルランド系。ボストン大学大学院修士、ハーバード大学院修士。ABCおよびCBSのニュース記者を経てFox News Network入社。 ウィキペディア 2017年、セクハラの口止め料として5人の女性に対して1300万ドルあまりを支払っていた問題で4月20日、FOXニュースの人気番組『オライリー・ファクター』のホストであるビル・オライリーがFOXニュースに復帰しないことで合意したと親会社の21世紀フォックスが発表した。メディアによる選別は困難だが、FOXニュースは総じてトランプ大統領を肯定的に扱っており、「メディアは米国民の敵だ」と言ってはばからないトランプ大統領も、FOXニュースを敵対視した発言をしたことはない。
blame:のせいである



GLENN BECK and Bill O’Reilly did not miss the chance to gloat. Fox News Channel, the television presenters’ former employer, has lost its grip as America’s most-watched cable-news channel. Among prime-time viewers aged 25 to 54—the most important cohort for advertisers—the station that has long topped the ratings chart found itself in third place for five consecutive days last week, trailing both CNN and MSNBC. It was the first time that had happened in 17 years. “Is this the beginning of Fox actually having to work hard to keep its place?” Mr Beck, who left the channel in 2011, asked in a podcast. “It doesn’t look like [Fox] has a plan,” replied Mr O’Reilly, a ratings-topping Fox host, who was sacked last month after a wave of sexual-harassment allegations against him set off a boycott by advertisers. 

GLENN BECK:グレン・ベック ラジオ・パーソナリティ グレン・ベックは、アメリカ合衆国の保守系ラジオ・パーソナリティ、コメンテーターである。かつては、FOXニュースのテレビ番組で司会者を務めていた。2011年、保守系複合メディア企業「THE BLAZE」を設立、2014年現在もオーナーを務める。 ウィキペディア
gloat:満足げに眺める・悦に入る
cohort:支持者
podcast:ネット上の音声動画番組
plan:考えがある
allegations:申し立て

Fox’s tumble down the cable league table has coincided with a period of unprecedented tumult at its headquarters. Roger Ailes, its powerful former chief, transformed the channel into a conservative-news juggernaut, but was forced out in 2016 after numerous employees accused him of sexual harassment. He died on May 18th. Greta Van Susteren, a star anchor, has moved to MSNBC, while Megyn Kelly, whose ratings trailed only Mr O’Reilly’s, left the network for NBC in January. The network has rebuilt its stable from within, drafting replacements like Tucker Carlson, a right-wing commentator known almost as much for his bow ties as he is for his political analysis. 

tumble:転がり落ちる
tumult:騒動
juggernaut:圧倒的な力
Roger Ailes:米FOXニュース(Fox News)は6日、元キャスターのグレッチェン・カールソン(Gretchen Carlson)さんが前最高経営責任者(CEO)のロジャー・エイルズ(Roger Ailes)氏(76)からセクハラを受けたとして起こしていた裁判で、和解が成立したと発表し、カールソンさんに対する処遇を謝罪した。現地メディアは、同社がカールソンさんに対し2000万ドル(約20億円)の和解金を支払うと報じている。
from within:内部から

米FOX、セクハラ裁判で和解 元キャスターに20億円支払いか

Nonetheless, the fact that Fox has lost ground just as its old guard moved on is probably a coincidence. The channel’s viewership during Ms Kelly’s old 9pm slot actually soared shortly after Mr Carlson replaced her, and held steady in the 8pm hour after Mr Carlson switched to that time to fill in for Mr O’Reilly. If Rupert Murdoch, the boss of Fox’s parent company, is looking for scapegoats, he should train his fire instead on the man whom Fox’s sympathetic coverage helped get elected as president. 

viewership:視聴率
for:の代わりに
Rupert Murdoch:キース・ルパート・マードック(Keith Rupert Murdoch、1931年3月11日 - )は、オーストラリア系アメリカ人の実業家。 メディア・コングロマリットのニューズ・コーポレーション(現在ではエンターテインメント関連事業は21世紀フォックス、出版関連事業は新しいニューズ・コーポレーションに分社化)を所有することから世界的なメディア王として知られる。21世紀フォックス及びニューズ・コーポレーションの株主、代表取締役という立場でテレビや新聞、映画、雑誌、音楽産業、インターネットなどを中心とした世界に散らばるメディア企業を率いている。長年オーストラリアを拠点としていたが、1986年にアメリカ合衆国でFOXテレビを創設した際に連邦通信規則との関係でアメリカに帰化した。
train his fire :Roger Ailesが社長だった。
sympathetic coverage:賛同した報道

ここまでの所、まあ、フォックスニュースはセクハラばかりだ。人気番組の司会者であったオライリーが1300万ドルの慰謝料を払い、社長のロジャー・エイルズは2000万ドルの和解金を元キャスターのグレッチェン・カールソンに払っている。

日曜日。また明日。

swingby_blog at 21:25コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 
livedoor プロフィール
プロフィール

海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
Swingby 最新イベント情報
海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
講演・メディア出演

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