NAFTA's Members Head Back to the Table

NAFTAの加盟国が会議に戻ってきている


The flags of Canada, Mexico and the United States hang outside the negotiating room during the third round of talks in September to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement.(LARS HAGBERG/AFP/Getty Images)

Over the next few rounds of negotiations on the North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada, Mexico and the United States will present more drafts of proposals to revise the deal than they have during previous discussions.

The United States will propose the most contentious reforms, such as measures to increase the amount of U.S.-produced content in products imported from Mexico and Canada under NAFTA. The negotiations are unlikely to break down, despite the controversial issues the next round of talks will cover, though they probably will take awhile to reach their conclusion. 

content：中身
brsaak down：〈交渉計画結婚などが〉失敗する, うまくいかない(fail).

Canada, Mexico and the United States are drawing their battle lines for the fourth round of negotiations to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement. And the differences in their priorities for the talks, scheduled for Washington during Oct. 11-15, are becoming even clearer. The negotiations will reach their apex in the fourth round, but they will hit plenty of bumps along the way. As the signatory countries address the most difficult items on their agendas, they will run up against one another's imperatives, making compromise all the more challenging. 

imperatives：緊急になすべきこと

Getting in Gear
For U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, the main focus of the talks will be on reducing the United States' bilateral trade deficit with Mexico and boosting its exports to the rest of the bloc. The United States is expected to propose increasing regional content requirements, the rules that govern the percentage of a product's added value that must come from within NAFTA, from 62.5 percent to 85 percent to close the gap between its imports and exports. It is also expected to propose a new stipulation — the first of its kind in a multilateral trade deal — requiring that 50 percent of a good's content come from the United States to qualify for NAFTA benefits. 

stipulation：契約条項[条件], 約定

The automobile sector, which accounts for $54 billion of the $66 billion U.S. deficit, is the chief target of these proposals. But the vast majority of U.S.-based automotive companies will object to implementing the measures. The automotive supply chains in the United States, Canada and Mexico, after all, are so closely integrated that suddenly changing regional content requirements would cause major problems across the bloc. Furthermore, it's unclear whether higher content requirements will help the U.S. automotive sector in the long run. American-made cars and components aren't as competitively priced as they once were. Many firms may sooner forgo the perks of NAFTA and pay the modest 2.5 percent tariff the United States applies to many light-duty vehicles than take on the expense of complying with the revised rules. 

forgo：〈楽しみなど〉を我慢する; …を差し控える, 遠慮する.
perks：perquisite (立場地位に伴う)役得, 特権, 特典.

And automakers won't be the only ones grumbling in the United States. Others already have criticized U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer for ignoring the procedure for raising issues to address in the negotiations. Though Lighthizer has the lead in the trade talks, his office must clear the U.S. position with other government agencies before presenting it to Mexico and Canada. Lighthizer has responded to the complaints that he has bypassed the proper channels by saying that the government eventually will come together on the various issues at stake. So far, however, some of Lighthizer's demands, such as proposals to institute a sunset clause or an automatic renegotiation trigger in NAFTA and to change its investor-state dispute settlement mechanism, are still points of contention in the United States. 

grumbling：文句をいうこと
at stake：名誉・評判などが〕危うくなって、危機にひんして［さらされて］
institute：制定する
contention：論点, 主張, 意見

On the Other Sides
Outside the United States, many of the proposals the White House has or is expected to put forth in the fourth round will be no less controversial. Canada and Mexico, for example, probably will object to the sunset clause if it comes up again, having shot it down when the United States first floated the idea. The U.S. administration's plans for the agricultural sector are bound to raise some hackles, too. Talk of imposing seasonal trade barriers on certain crops during their harvest season to protect U.S. agriculture could be worrisome for Canada and Mexico should their harvests coincide with those of the United States. In addition, Canada will probably bristle at Washington's demands on its closely guarded dairy sector. 

no less：それでもなお、やはり、同様に 実に、確かに、
hackles：〈人〉をいきり立たせる, 憤らせる.
worrisome：〈物事が〉やっかいな, 面倒な, 気がかりな
bristle：【怒りなどで/非難などに】気色ばむ, 身構える

Ottawa has several concerns about Washington's agenda going into the talks, though, compared with Mexico City, it won't take much heat from the United States over trade deficits. Besides its desires to keep the supply controls on its dairy sector in place, the Canadian government wants to preserve the current dispute resolution mechanism under Chapter 19. The provision enables companies to avoid domestic courts when appealing anti-dumping and countervailing duty cases. And considering the 220 percent duty the United States levied on some Canadian airplane exports last month — to which it added an additional 80 percent tariff earlier this month — maintaining the mechanism is a big priority for Canada. 

Chapter 19: Review and Dispute Settlement in Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Matters
countervailing：(ほかに)対抗できるほどの, 相殺するような

Mexico, meanwhile, is getting ready to stand up to the United States. On Oct. 5, a group of senators from President Enrique Pena Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party outlined the six items that they will refuse to agree to in the new NAFTA. Most of the issues they highlighted are measures the United States has proposed to add or alter, including the sunset clause, the content level requirements, the Chapter 19 dispute mechanism and the seasonal protections on produce. 

Mexico's threat to vote against an agreement that addresses these provisions will make for contentious negotiations. The Pena Nieto administration is trying to reach a deal on NAFTA before the next administration takes power and a new crop of legislators enters the Congress of the Union late next year. If the United States pressures Mexico to accept an agreement that crosses its six red lines before the power transition takes place, the deal could die in the Mexican legislature. That puts the negotiators in a tough position heading into the fourth round.


No matter how heated they get, however, the next round of talks won't break down. Mexico, Canada and the United States all agree on at least one thing: that NAFTA's collapse would be devastating for all parties involved. But reaching a compromise won't be easy with so many disparate priorities to navigate, nor will it be quick. The talks could extend deep into 2018, at which point they would risk complications not only from the Mexican elections slated for next summer but also from U.S. midterm elections in the fall. In the meantime, the extent of the differences between NAFTA's three members will come to light as the fourth round of negotiations gets underway. 

NAFTAの交渉は失敗できないが、山谷が多い。そもそも、アメリカに不利な貿易赤字を解消しようというものだが、かならずしも、赤字をなくせばいいというものでもなさそうだ。自動車とか農業の交渉で、必ずしもアメリカに有利にはならないし、カナダやメキシコも譲れない。落としどころが見えないが、メキシコの選挙とかアメリカの中間選挙までには解決しなければならない。第４回目の会合で先が見えるようになるだろう。

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

After a rocky few years, emerging markets have become more mature and resilient, says Simon Cox. But along with the drama, some of their dynamism has gone
Oct 5th 2017

新興市場が活発に動きている。
問題を抱えた数年後に、新興市場は成熟し、立ち直ってきているとSimon Coxは言っている。
劇的な出来事に加えて、幾分、力強さがなくなっている。



IN 1875 THE Ottoman Empire defaulted on half its foreign debt, a victim of the “first major debt crisis of the developing world”, according to one account of the mess. Its creditors, led by the Imperial Ottoman Bank, forced the empire’s grand vizier to accept a humiliating solution. Rather than wait to be repaid out of tax revenues, they won the right to collect half a dozen taxes themselves, including stamp duty and duties on alcohol. After 15 years of tax farming, the Imperial Ottoman Bank was comfortable enough to build impressive new headquarters in Istanbul, neo-orientalist in style on one side and neoclassical on the other. 

default：(期限内に)【約束債務契約などを】履行しない, 果たさない ≪on≫
mess：過失などから生じた)困った立場, 窮境(muddle, difficulty)：
vizier：(旧イスラム諸国の)高官, 大臣.
grand：威厳のある
humiliating：屈辱的な
dozen：大量の
stamp duty：印紙税
farm：〈土地〉を耕す; 〈家畜〉を育てる

Since long before the term was invented, emerging markets have provided a rich source of both peril and profit. That financial crisis in 1875 was followed by many others, including a hatful in Turkey. And like the Imperial Ottoman Bank, investors with strong stomachs have often profited the most from emerging markets at their worst. Hedge funds that bought impaired Argentine debt for roughly 20 cents on the dollar after its default in 2001 extracted a handsome settlement from its new government last year, worth perhaps ten times what they paid, according to some estimates. 

term：(契約合意売買などの)条件, 条項
peril：危険
hatful：〈人物などが〉【人にとって】本当に不愉快な, とてもいやな
The more recent history of emerging markets has also tested plenty of stomachs. Within days of Donald Trump’s election victory his populist promises raised American bond yields, sending the price of emerging-market assets the other way. Trading partners winced at his tweets threatening American companies planning to shift their production abroad. This “Trump tantrum” appeared to be the latest in a grim sequence of setbacks for emerging markets. 

winced：(痛さ恐怖困惑などのため)【声考えなどに】たじろぐ, ひるむ
tantrum：特に幼児の)かんしゃく, 不機嫌
grim：気のめいる
sequence：一連の出来事

It followed China’s botched devaluation of the yuan in 2015, the collapse in oil and iron-ore prices in 2014 and the “taper tantrum” in 2013, when mere talk of a slowdown in asset purchases by America’s Federal Reserve threw emerging markets into turmoil. The Trump tantrum came on top of political risks arising in emerging markets themselves, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Philippines’ war on drugs, a successful coup in Thailand in 2014 and a failed one in Turkey in 2016, the removal of an unpopular president in Brazil for a fiscal misdemeanour, and the survival of embattled rulers in South Africa and Malaysia. 

botched：(不注意未熟で)…をしくじる, やり損なう
taper：(細長い物の幅の)先細り; (量勢いなどの)漸次的減少.
mere talk：単なる噂
misdemeanour：不行跡, 不品行.
embattled：多くの問題[困難]を抱えた, 追いつめられた〈人組織など〉.

Strange as it may seem, though, the presidency of Mr Trump, an avowed opponent of globalism, has coincided with a recovery in globalisation. In the first half of this year the volume of emerging-market exports was 4.6% up on a year earlier, the fastest growth since 2011, according to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a government agency. The growing demand for semiconductor chips and sensors lifted South Korea’s and Malaysia’s electronics exports; the recovery of the oil price bolstered Russia; and a favourable turn in the weather benefited Brazil’s harvest of soyabeans and corn. 

avowed：公然の; 自ら認めた; 公言された
coincided：同時に起こる ≪with≫

Higher exports have helped lift GDP. In the first half of 2017 the four biggest emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as the BRICs) all grew simultaneously for the first time in three years. Emerging-market growth still cannot match that in the miracle years of 2003-06, but it has been equally broad. So far 21 of the 24 countries in the MSCI emerging-markets index, the most popular stockmarket benchmark, have reported GDP figures for the second quarter of this year, and all of them were up on the previous quarter. Not since 2009 has growth been positive in every member that publishes quarter-on-quarter numbers. 

broad：明らかな
quarter-on-quarter：前四半期比

This improvement in emerging-market growth has been accompanied by renewed enthusiasm for their currencies, bonds and shares (see chart). In August these countries recorded their ninth month in a row of capital inflows from portfolio investors, the longest streak since 2014, according to the Institute of International Finance. An index of emerging-market exchange rates compiled by MSCI has risen by 14% since its trough in January 2016. It has enjoyed its best 18 months since 2011. Even ill-favoured currencies such as the Russian rouble, Mexican peso and Chinese yuan have defied their doubters, strengthening against the dollar this year (see chart below). 

streak：ひと続き
trough：景気の谷
defied：〈法律規則権威など〉に従わない



The price of emerging markets’ “hard-currency” dollar bonds rose by over 6% in the first half of the year, according to J.P. Morgan. And bonds denominated in their own, hardening currencies did even better, rising by double digits. But nothing has been as eye-catching as their stockmarkets. The MSCI EM index rose above 1,000 in May from below 700 in January 2016, an annualised gain of about 33%. 

hardening：強くする

The strength of the rally makes many old hands nervous. The history of emerging markets is full of imprudent investors as well as improvident borrowers. The delusion of those parting with their money often matches the myopia of those squandering it. In 1895, for example, a stockmarket boom prompted one big international bank to nearly triple its loans in two years. The bank’s own manager peddled South African mining shares such as the Transvaal Consolidated Land and Exploration Company. When the shares crashed, the bank suffered a run, turning to the government and its London owners for a bail-out. This reckless financial institution was none other than the Imperial Ottoman Bank that had grown rich from tax farming a few years earlier. 

rally：(株価の)持ち直し, 反発.
imprudent：思慮分別の欠けた, 軽率な
improvident：将来を考えない
delusion：思い違い, 誤った考え
myopia：視野の狭さ
squandering：〈金時間機会など〉を浪費する
peddled：〈商品〉を売りに歩き回る
reckless：無謀な


Pessimists can find a number of reasons to worry, some traditional, others more novel. Classic emerging-market crises often begin in Washington, DC, when the Fed raises interest rates or tightens monetary policy in other ways. So nerves will jangle if an uptick in American inflation pushes the Fed to increase rates faster than the market now expects. And for a new variation on this old theme, investors can fret about the Fed’s recent decision to begin trimming the assets it bought after the global financial crisis. 

novel：斬新な, 革新[画期]的な, 目新しい
The commodity cycle is another time-tested source of instability. The halving of oil prices in the second half of 2014 inflicted great pain on Russia and other crude exporters. Conversely, costly oil in the years before 2014 added to the chronic trade deficits and inflation suffered by countries such as India and Pakistan. The Latin American debt crisis in 1982 was caused by a combination of a commodity shock and a Fed shock. The petrodollars earned by Gulf exporters during the oil-price spikes of the 1970s were deposited in American banks, which lent them incautiously to Latin American governments. These loans then became impossible to repay when the Fed raised interest rates sharply in 1979-81. 

time-tested：時の試練を経た、長期間の使用で保証済みの、長年かけて有効性が実証されている、実績のある、伝統のある
incautiously：無謀に

The have-nots
Countries not blessed with commodities have worries of their own. The only natural resource in many emerging markets is manpower, but a growth model based on labour-intensive manufacturing now faces two unaccustomed threats. One is automation. The growing versatility and user-friendliness of robotic technology may be eroding the advantages of cheap labour, resulting in what economists call “premature deindustrialisation”. Post-industrial rustbelts are common in rich economies like America. The fear is that emerging-market industries will turn rusty before their people grow rich. 

unaccustomed：異常な、尋常ならない、いつにない
versatility：汎用性
rusty：錆びついた

Another threat is protectionism. Emerging economies have always relied on access to the world’s biggest markets for their exports. But the Trump administration is keen to reduce America’s trade imbalances, and has become more active in imposing anti-dumping duties and other tariffs on goods it considers too cheap. It has so far opened investigations into 65 potential cases of dumped or subsidised products (from Chinese staples to Colombian citric acid), compared with 44 in the same period of 2016. 

citric acid：硝酸

As some countries worry about exporting to America’s market, others worry about importing its politics. In both Brazil and Mexico, the candidates for the next presidential election include outspoken populists who draw strength from battling with Mr Trump or mirroring his provocations. Emerging markets have traditionally had a strong comparative advantage in populism. But that is another imbalance Mr Trump seems keen to correct. 

outspoken：言いたいことを(正直に)言う, 歯に衣を着せない
provocations：挑発・扇動
comparative：相対[比較]的にみた場合の

This special report will examine each of these dangers in turn. It will argue that emerging economies in recent years have become more resilient, albeit less vigorous, losing some drama as well as some dynamism. That should allow their recovery to continue despite the threats they face. 

A lot of emerging-market investors are “waiting for the good old-fashioned crisis”, said Mark Dow, a money manager and former IMF economist, in a podcast interview late last year. In their experience, “it always ends with a blow-up…it’s happened so many times for so many of the old wizened EM hands that they are conditioned to believe it has to be like that again.” 

blow-up：爆発
wizened：干からびた; しなびた; しおれた; 〈人顔などが〉しわだらけの.

It does not, but plenty of doubters remain. In particular, the failure of emerging markets to deal effectively with earlier shocks (such as higher oil prices in the 1970s, tighter Fed policy in 1979-81 and mightier Chinese manufacturing in the 2000s) has contributed to a lingering concern that middle-income countries are more likely to become “trapped” as they develop, marooned somewhere between poverty and prosperity. 

lingering：長引く
marooned：(脱出が困難な場所に)置き去りにされる; 孤立状態にされる.

If the “middle-income trap” were found to be real, it would pose a more serious problem than ever before. Countries at that intermediate level of development account for a growing share of the world’s GDP and its people. The global economy could not prosper if such an enormous part of its population and production were to become thus ensnared. Fortunately, as this report will argue, the trap is a myth. 

ensnared：〈人〉を困難[不快, 違法]な状況に陥れる.
myth：誤った考え

新興市場の景気が良くなってきている。１９世紀のオットーマン帝国の財政難の話とか２００１年のアルゼンチンのディフォルトの話もあったが、最近の話ではFedが金利を上げれば新興市場は借り入れの負担が大きくなるので、景気が落ち込んでしまう。こうした市場の国々は資源は主に人材だが、昨今はAIとロボットが進んできているので、以前のように、安い人件費は強みではなくなった。中所得国の罠は以前ほど心配しなくて良くなった。トランプがアメリカの市場を保護しだしたので、輸出ができなくなることは心配だ。それでも、新興市場は立ち直ってきている。

火曜日。ではまた明日。

Jul 6th 2017, 12:14

もしイギリスがテムズ川のシンガポールになったら。
イギリスがEUとの交渉に失敗した時のイギリスの経済


After crashing out of the European Union, Britain tries an alternative economic model. The experiment is proving painful

IT IS 2021 and Britain is out of the European Union. The two-year Brexit negotiations never really got going. Following the general election of 2017 the Conservatives, though the largest party, had no majority in Parliament. They struggled to formulate a coherent plan to present to the EU. The hardline fringe of the party promised to raise hell any time there was any suggestion of compromise with Brussels. The two sides did not get close even to a transitional deal. On March 29th 2019 Britain crashed out of the club. 

got going：動き出す
coherent：首尾一貫した
hardline fringe：〔社会・政治などの〕分派、非主流派、過激派グループ

The immediate result was panic. British airlines were excluded from the EU’s common aviation area, so they were no longer allowed to take off in one EU country and land in another. Cars, Britain’s second-biggest goods export, faced a 10% tariff to enter the EU market. Exporters did not know how to navigate EU customs, prompting long delays. The pound plummeted. 

prompting：誘発する

With bankers moving to Frankfurt and a severe recession looming, the Conservatives drew up a blueprint to keep the post-Brexit economy competitive. The plan called for low taxes and a small state. This was a renewed push in the direction taken by George Osborne, the chancellor in 2010-16, who reduced public spending as a share of GDP from 45% to 40% while cutting taxes on companies and the rich. 

The Tories dismissed the notion, touted by the tabloids, that Britain was turning into “Singapore-on-Thames”. They were wary of alienating left-leaning Brexiteers who had for the first time voted Conservative in 2017. Yet the plans were radical. They started by cutting the rate of corporation tax from 17% to 10% (a threat Britain made to its EU partners early in the Brexit negotiations). The higher rate of income tax was slashed from 40% to 25%. The government also tweaked Britain’s tax-secrecy laws. Bearer shares (almost universally outlawed because they confer anonymous ownership of a company) were reintroduced, having been abolished in 2015. 

touted：〈馬の特別情報〉を提供する.
wary：慎重な
alienating：遠ざける
radical：過激な
tweaked：微調整する
confer：与える

At first the plan seemed to have an impact. Spotify, a music-streaming app, moved its headquarters from Stockholm to London. The weak pound made British firms targets for foreign buyers. Unilever, one of the largest companies in the FTSE 100 and the producer of Colman’s mustard and Hellmann’s mayonnaise, was finally taken over by Kraft Heinz, an American firm, to form UniKraft. UniKraft is now a British firm for tax purposes but the big decisions are taken in America. 

Reality bites
Yet, beyond a brief uptick in GDP, all this has hardly helped the economy. It has also deprived public services of resources. 

bites：〈行為政策などが〉(好ましくない)影響[効果]をもたらす
uptick：上昇
deprived：奪う

Take the economy first. Cutting corporation tax and introducing loopholes may induce big firms to switch their tax domiciles, but it does little to encourage firms to create jobs or production in Britain. Even the most optimistic calculation from the government, which finds that higher investment leads to faster growth and a higher tax take, suggests that after 20 years just half of the lost receipts could be recouped. 

domiciles：(住民登録上の)住所
tax take：税金徴収
recouped：控除する

Overall, Britain remains far less attractive to foreign investors after Brexit than it was before. It is no longer in the EU's single market and, with immigration rules tighter, firms have trouble finding the right staff. UniKraft has saved a bundle on its tax bill but it also moved the Colman’s mustard factory from Norwich to Poland. 

Personal-tax cuts have had a similarly underwhelming effect. The 15-point cut to the higher rate has benefited only a small number of people: 15% of income-tax payers, according to official estimates. These folk are richer, so are more likely to save rather than spend any extra income. 

underwhelming：の印象[存在]を薄くする.

The tax cut has thus given growth only a marginal boost. It has been expensive. Estimates from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank, suggest that each percentage-point cut in the higher rate of income tax costs the government about £1bn. The number of higher-rate taxpayers has declined as rich EU nationals quit the country. 

As the tax take fell, the government had to cut spending. The tabloids cheered the raid on the budget for overseas aid and the abolition of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, seen as a waste of money. But all government departments needed to economise. 


That proved particularly hard for the National Health Service. The austerity plan called for a decade-long cash-terms freeze in NHS spending, the biggest squeeze in its history (compared with an average real-terms increase in 1950-2010 of 4% a year). The exodus of foreign nationals also hurt; in the early 2010s one-third of doctors were immigrants. 

The NHS found it hard to cope even with a fairly mild winter in 2020. Typically Britain sees around 30,000 excess deaths each winter, but that rose to 60,000. 

This hit the government’s popularity. Sensing their chance, a group of pro-EU MPs have formed a new party, Britain Up! It has nearly 100 MPs, defectors from Labour and the Liberal Democrats—plus a few Tories, whose defection has triggered an election. It is campaigning on a promise to hold a referendum on whether to reapply for EU membership. The rump of the Tory party insists Brexit means Brexit. The polls suggest the race is neck and neck. 

defectors：離反者
rump：残党

Brexitのためにいろいろな策を講じているが、それによって、それなりの効果があるようだが、所詮、全てが後ろ向きだ。こんなことをしてまで、Brexitを何故するのだろうか。このままではイギリスが凋落してしまう。もう一度、このBrexitを考えなおした方がいい。良いことはない。

月曜日。今日は朝会がある。ではまた明日。

But the latest effort is likely to fail
Oct 5th 2017 | CAIRO

パレスチナ人たちは和解しようとしている。
しかし最近の努力は失敗しているようだ。



IT MUST have felt like deja vu for Rami Hamdallah, the Palestinian prime minister, as he crossed the heavily-fortified border into Gaza on October 2nd. It was his first visit in two-and-a-half years. There were speeches, rallies and lofty promises to end the schism that has paralysed Palestinian politics for more than a decade. It was like a replay of a trip he made in 2014 to inaugurate a new unity government— which fell apart within weeks. 

lofty：崇高な
schism：(宗派政治組織などの)分裂.
paralysed： (一時的に)麻痺させる

The Palestinian territories split in 2007, a year after Hamas, the militant Islamist group, won a majority in parliament. It seized control of Gaza after months of bloody fighting with its nationalist rival, Fatah. Since then Hamas has run the coastal strip as a separate fief, with its own civil servants and police. The two parties have signed six reconciliation deals meant to end the split, but none held. Hamas was loth to give up its enclave. 

loth：することに気が進まない, …することをいやがる(reluctant).

Now it seems more amenable. It has agreed to cede control of the civilian ministries in Gaza. Over the coming year it will add 3,000 police officers from the Palestinian Authority (PA), which runs the West Bank and is dominated by Fatah. Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s number two, said he would “break the neck” of anyone who opposes reconciliation. (That may not be an idle threat: in the 1980s his job was to kill Palestinians who collaborated with Israel.) 

amenable：すすんで受け入れて, 快く応じて[応える]
cede：譲渡する
idle：根拠のない

Hamas has few alternatives at this point. Life in Gaza has been grim for a decade, amid three wars and a blockade imposed by both Israel and Egypt. Conditions worsened further this spring when Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, slapped his own sanctions on the territory to press Hamas into a deal. Most of Gaza’s 2m people receive just four hours of electricity a day. Tap water is equally scarce and when it is available it is brackish and polluted. Nearly two-thirds of young people cannot find work. In dingy, crowded hospitals, basic medicines are in short supply. Hamas is keen to put someone else in charge of the misery. 

grim：厳しい
Tap water：水道水
dingy：薄暗い, 陰気な, みすぼらしい, 汚い, むさ苦しい

So are regional powers. Qatar, the main sponsor of Hamas, is under embargo by Egypt and three of its Gulf neighbours, which want the emirate to cut ties with Islamists. It has not halted aid to Hamas, but it has quietly urged the group to reconcile with Fatah. The United Arab Emirates has dangled the prospect of massive investment in a post-Hamas Gaza. It is working closely with Muhammad Dahlan, an ex-Fatah security boss who was banished by Mr Abbas and now lives in Abu Dhabi. 

dangled：〈ほうびなど〉をちらつかせる 
banished：追放する

The greatest pressure has come from Egypt, which controls Rafah, the sole border crossing accessible to most Palestinians. It has been largely closed since 2013. Egypt accuses Hamas of working with jihadists who are fighting a bloody insurgency in Sinai. Though the charges are exaggerated, Hamas has indeed allowed dozens of wanted Egyptian militants to seek refuge in Gaza. The generals in Cairo would be happy to see Mr Abbas’s men back on the border. 

exaggerated：を誇張する, おおげさに言う [考える]

Hamas has not agreed to that. It may let Mr Abbas run the schools and hospitals, but it will not give up a militia that boasts tens of thousands of fighters and a cache of rockets. “This will never be up for discussion,” says Moussa Abu Marzouk, a top Hamas official. So this effort is likely to fail for the same sorts of reasons as the past six. Mr Abbas cannot accept a well-armed group operating under his nose. It would be a threat to the unpopular president’s tenuous rule. 

up for ：賛成で
tenuous：もろい

It could also bankrupt his government. Israel would probably withhold the tax revenue on which the PA depends, and some Western countries might suspend foreign aid. “If someone from Hamas has a weapon, I’ll put him in prison,” Mr Abbas told Egyptian television. He may not get the chance. 

ハマスとファタファとの交渉で、ファタファのアッバスはハマスの非武装を要求しているが、それは無理だろう。ハマスにはカタールが支援しようとしているが、エジプトを始めとして湾岸諸国がそれを阻んでいる。ハマスは制裁のために１０年間も困窮している。この交渉は結局うまくいかないだろう。

日曜日。皇漢堂の藤原社長と会食がある。ではまた明日。

A declaration of independence, of sorts
Oct 10th 2017 | BARCELONA

カタルーニャ地方の指導者は会談で独立が保留にされる。
独立宣言 名ばかりの。　




THE formula seemed contradictory. On October 10th Carles Puigdemont, the president of Catalonia’s devolved government, told his parliament that he was “assuming the mandate” for Catalonia to become an independent republic and thus leave Spain. But he asked the parliament to “suspend the effects of the declaration of independence” to allow for negotiations. 

formula：解決策
contradictory：反対の
devolved：権限を委譲された
mandate：〔権力者などが発する〕命令（書）

This followed an unconstitutional referendum on independence held on October 1st in which, his administration says, 2.3m (around 43% of the electorate) voted, 2m of them in favour. For many of the thousands of flag-waving demonstrations outside the parliament, that was enough to declare independence straight away, and many were deflated. But business leaders and opposition politicians in Catalonia warn that Mr Puigdemont is propelling the region towards a costly political void. By suspending independence, he is trying to play for time. 

deflated：自信をなくした, がっかりした

All eyes now turn to Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s conservative prime minister. He has rejected negotiation while Catalonia’s government continues to act unconstitutionally. He is under pressure to invoke Article 155 of Spain’s democratic constitution which allows the government to “compel” a region to fulfil its constitutional obligations and give it direct orders if it does not. Never tested, politicians assume this would allow the prime minister to suspend self-government in Catalonia, and call a regional election. 

invoke sanctions：制裁措置を講じる.

Mr Rajoy told El Pais, a Madrid newspaper, that he would act to keep Spain together “at the right time”. In Catalonia, one of Spain’s richest regions with 7.5m people, the independence movement gained allies after the Spanish government’s mishandling of the referendum, during which police baton charges left several hundred people injured, according to the Catalan authorities. The region was paralysed by a protest strike on October 3rd. 

baton charge：｟主に英｠(警察による)警棒での攻撃.
paralysed：麻痺させる

That may come to be seen as a high watermark for the drive for independence. The past few days have delivered a sharp reality check, contradicting the claims of the ruling coalition in Barcelona, Catalonia’s capital, that independence would be painless and is the demand of a united people. 


Most damagingly, since October 1st a score of the largest companies in Catalonia have started to move their legal domicile to other parts of Spain. Thousands of savers have moved their accounts. On October 8th some 400,000 people marched in Barcelona for the unity of Spain. It was the first time that the silent majority opposed to independence found its voice. No European government has shown the least sign of interest in Mr Puigdemont’s pleas for mediation; France’s Emmanuel Macron, for one, has bluntly rejected it. 

domicile：(住民登録上の)住所

Mr Puigdemont heads a diverse coalition which may now fracture. Moderates, silent for the past few months, have emerged to push for delay. On the other hand, the CUP, an anarchist group which wants immediate independence, did not join the applause for Mr Puigdemont’s speech. It may now withdraw its support, depriving his administration of its working majority. “I don’t think he can last a month without calling an election” in Catalonia, says a moderate politician in his party. That would do Mr Rajoy’s job for him. One way or another, Catalans may be asked to vote, legally this time. That would at least allow everyone to draw breath. 

diverse：様々な
deprive A of B：〈人物事が〉A〈人物〉からB〈(重要な)物事〉を奪う
draw breath：一息入れる

カタルーニャの独立騒動の顛末。独立をするのであれば、多くの企業がこのカタルーニャからスペインに移籍してしまうようだ。それでは独立しても財政が持たない。独立支持が圧倒的であったが、実際に直面するとマイナスが大きすぎたようだ。結局、お祭り騒ぎで終わってしまった。投票では数百人が警棒で負傷した。それでも、独立には動けなかった。


土曜日。今日は海野塾だ。ではまた明日。

Against North Korea, Deterrence of a Different Kind
By Omar Lamrani

北朝鮮に対して違う種類の抑止策



Since the turn of the millennium, war between nuclear powers has never loomed so near. As North Korea sprints toward the finish line in its race to build a credible nuclear deterrent, the window of opportunity to stop it is shrinking. With time running out, the United States may yet launch a preventive strike against Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs, convinced that military intervention is the only way to halt its smaller adversary in its tracks. 


Within this narrow time frame, the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula will spike as the United States weighs the costs and benefits of attacking a country whose arsenal is already formidable. But should Washington opt against a preventive strike, or put off the decision for too long, the few options before it will be reduced to one: deterrence. 

spike：急上昇する
formidable：手強い
opt：(他よりも) ≪…の方を/…する方を/…しない方を≫ 選択する, 決める ≪for/to do/against≫
put off：延期する

Armed and Dangerous
On paper, deterrence is a fairly straightforward concept: One country uses the threat of retaliation to stave off the attacks of another. But in practice, deterrence can look quite different depending on the nations implementing and being targeted by it. The circumstances that gave rise to the very concept of nuclear deterrence — the United States' Cold War-era showdown with the Soviet Union — are radically different than those Washington now faces as its standoff with Pyongyang grows tenser by the day. And in many ways, deterring North Korea would be far trickier than deterring the Soviet Union ever was. 

trickier：巧妙な・油断のならない

The most pressing danger the United States would have to worry about is miscalculation. Though North Korea's development of a fully functional nuclear weapon and delivery arsenal would take the option of a preventive strike off the table, it wouldn't preclude a pre-emptive strike aimed at stopping an imminent attack. In fact, because North Korea would have the ability to inflict catastrophic damage in a single go, the United States, South Korea and Japan would have even more reason to try to detect and block an attack by Pyongyang before it happens. 

single combat：一騎打ち.

South Korea has already taken steps to improve its response time. Under its "proactive deterrence" strategy, Seoul has compressed its military chain of command to speed up decision-making, while with the still-developing Kill Chain program it aims to be able to detect and pre-empt any North Korean missile launch before it occurs. These programs are only a small part of the broader strategies that the United States, South Korea and Japan will put in place against North Korea. But the ability to act faster comes with its own dangers as well. Under pressure to issue a quick and overwhelming response ahead of a seemingly imminent nuclear attack — or, from Pyongyang's perspective, a strike meant to decapitate the government of Kim Jong Un — parties on each side could easily trigger a devastating conflict on the basis of false intelligence or a simple misunderstanding. 

devastating：破壊的な

A Race With No Winners
At the same time, the current strategic balance among the world’s biggest nuclear powers would begin to break down. The United States would inevitably ramp up its ballistic missile defense development, which would spur other nations to respond, perhaps in kind, or by adjusting nuclear posture or abandoning arms agreements. Already, the United States has a foundation of operational missile defenses to build on, ranging from regionally focused systems, such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), to strategic systems with the ability to shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles, such as the U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense. 

break down：〈機械システム車が〉故障する.〈交渉計画結婚などが〉失敗する, うまくいかない(fail).
inevitably：必然的に
in kind：同じように

This gradual buildup of U.S. missile defenses will meet vehement opposition from China and Russia. After all, a reliable anti-ballistic missile network could rob Beijing and Moscow of their own strategic deterrents, enabling Washington to launch a devastating first strike before intercepting and destroying any Chinese or Russian missiles that survive for use in a retaliatory strike. It came as no surprise when China pushed back against the recent deployment of the THAAD system to South Korea, or when Russia did the same in response to the United States' plans to bolster Europe's missile defenses. Any U.S. strategy of deterrence against North Korea that centers on missile defense would thus have wider global consequences, creating fertile ground for renewed rivalries and weakening the arms control regimes already in place. 

vehement：猛烈な
rob A of B：A〈人銀行など〉を襲ってB〈金財産など〉を奪う, 奪い取る
survive：切り抜ける

All for One, and One for All
North Korea's newfound capabilities would also raise questions among the United States' allies about the reliability of extended deterrence. Under this policy, the United States has tried to ward off attacks against South Korea and Japan by vowing to come to their defense, regardless of whether North Korea could target U.S. cities with nuclear weapons. But would the United States truly be willing to risk Los Angeles to save Tokyo or Seoul? As Washington's partners ask themselves this question, the prospect of "decoupling" — the breakdown of an extended deterrence umbrella as once-protected partners hedge their bets by seeking out their own defenses — will become all the more likely. 

vowing：誓う
decoupling：を切り離す, 分離させる

Of course, the United States could ease their fears somewhat by deploying tactical nuclear weapons to the region (most likely to South Korea). U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis recently discussed this possibility with South Korean Defense Minister Song Young Moo amid polls that showed nearly 70 percent of South Koreans support the move. If the talks result in action, it would place U.S. nuclear weapons directly in the line of fire, reducing the need for Seoul or Tokyo to create their own nuclear deterrents. It would also fortify the United States' extended deterrence policy by giving Washington and its allies more options: Rather than having to resort to strategic nuclear weapons, they could respond to North Korean chemical or nuclear attacks on the battlefield with the less drastic option of tactical nuclear weapons — at least, in theory. The actual fallout of introducing tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula would likely be much messier, dimming any prospect of someday denuclearizing the region while ratcheting up the risk of a wider nuclear war. 

fortify：強化する
resort：に頼る
messier：複雑で扱いにくい
dimming：楽観できない
ratcheting：を徐々に上げる[増す](up)

The United States has tried to reassure its Asian allies in more conventional ways as well. Washington recently agreed to lift the traditional payload limit in place on South Korean ballistic missiles, and it offered to sell both partners more advanced military equipment. But even as these moves shore up the United States' alliances in Northeast Asia, they will reduce Washington's ability to dictate the pace and outcome of events in the region, as South Korea and Japan expand their capabilities. And if either country, more emboldened and more powerful than ever, initiates its own offensive against North Korea, it could drag the United States into a war that was not of its choosing. 

lift：解除する
payload：(ミサイルなどの)爆弾量; 弾頭.
shore：〈組織人など〉を支える, 下支えする; (さらに悪化しないように)…を持ちこたえる(up).
emboldened：〈人〉を勇気[元気]づける, 励ます 

Perils Proliferate
A policy of deterrence against North Korea would carry new concerns for proliferation, too. Not only could South Korea and Japan seek out their own nuclear weapons, but North Korea would also set a troubling precedent for other nations: So far it is the only country to have joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty before subsequently withdrawing to pursue nuclear weapons. Moreover, there is a chance that North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile technology could spread to other countries. Though Pyongyang wouldn't be eager to undermine its deterrent by selling nuclear weapons technology, it's possibile that the cash-strapped and isolated government would sell missile development technology to longtime partners such as Iran. 

proliferation：(核兵器の)拡散.
precedent：前例
undermine：徐々に損なう

While the precarious world of deterrence is certainly preferable to nuclear war, it comes with its own problems and perils. And given the particularly high level of mistrust and risk of miscalculation on both sides of the dispute over North Korea’s nuclear program, the next era of nuclear deterrence may well be the most dangerous the world has witnessed yet. 

precarious：〈状況立場などが〉不安定な, 危うい(uncertain, unstable).
yet：今までのところは

Omar Lamrani focuses on air power, naval strategy, technology, logistics and military doctrine for a number of regions, including the Middle East and Asia. He studied international relations at Clark University and holds a master's degree from the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna, where his thesis centered on Chinese military doctrine and the balance of power in the Western Pacific. 

北朝鮮に対してどのよう、かれらに対抗してその核抑止力を発揮するべきかの幾つかの選択肢を提示している。アメリカが核の装備を強化すれば中国もロシアも同調するだろうし、一方で、北朝鮮がロスアンジェルスまで到達するICBMを開発してしまうと、アメリカは韓国、日本の防衛どころではなくなってしまうだろう。双方の誤解とか計算違いで、とんでもないことが起きてしまう危険性がある。

金曜日。ではまた明日。