Oct 7, 2017 | 15:06 GMT　stratfor
Turkey Poised to Roll Into Syria

トルコはいまにもシリアに入ろうとしている。

poised：〖be 〜〗 ≪…の/…する≫ 用意[覚悟]ができている ≪for/to do≫ ; 今にも動き出す姿勢でいる.

Turkey Poised to Roll Into Syria

(NAZEER AL-KHATIB/AFP/Getty Images)

Turkish-backed Syrian rebel fighters advance toward jihadist-controlled Idlib province along the Syria-Turkey border on Oct. 6.(NAZEER AL-KHATIB/AFP/Getty Images)

Weeks after Turkish forces started to deploy in large numbers along the border with Syria, adjacent to the province of Idlib, Ankara appears to be on the verge of launching yet another significant military operation into the war-torn country. Unlike Operation Euphrates Shield, which targeted lands occupied by the Islamic State, the upcoming operation into Idlib will be directed toward lands occupied by Syrian rebels. As befitting a convoluted conflict such as Syria, Turkey's advance into Idlib will be assisted by other Syrian rebel groups trained over time by Turkey in neighboring Aleppo province. And according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's latest statements, they will be supported by Russian aviation. 

befitting：にふさわしい
convoluted：入り組んだ

Given that Turkey has for years directly supported rebel factions in Idlib in their fight against Russian- and Iranian-backed loyalist forces, the prospect of Turkish forces advancing into Syria under Russian air cover appears jarring at face value. The signs of a significant shift in direction by Turkey on Syria, however, have been visible for some time. The first indication was the Turkish abandonment of the rebel defense of Aleppo in favor of Operation Euphrates Shield in late 2016. 

jarring：不調和な

This occurred amid steadily improving ties between Ankara and Moscow despite both sides maintaining opposite positions on the Syrian civil war, at least in principle. There were also increasing signs throughout 2017 of a significant drop in the flow of Turkish supplies to key rebel factions in northern Syria, particularly in Idlib. Turkey instead focused its resources on developing the capabilities of its Syrian rebel proxies that were directly under its management as part of Operation Euphrates Shield in northern Aleppo province.

The biggest shift in Turkey's stance, however, came through the Astana process, where Turkey negotiated at length with Russia and Iran in a number of negotiation rounds in the Kazakh capital on the setup of "de-escalation" zones in Syria. These talks enabled the establishment of a "de-escalation" zone in Idlib, on whose borders Turkish troops are now poised alongside their rebel allies from Operation Euphrates Shield.

A map of Syria showing de-escalation zones and zones of influence 
Turkey's shifting position over the past 18 months that is now culminating with a military operation into rebel-held lands can be explained by three overarching factors. The first is the dawning realization in Ankara that the rebels it supported were on the losing end of a conflict with Iran- and Russia-backed loyalist forces. Every major loyalist victory that bolstered Syrian government control in northern Syria, in turn, diminished Turkey's ability to influence events in the country. 

dawning：し始める

The second factor was the growing power of independently minded rebel groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in northern Syria, particularly in Idlib province. As rebel forces suffered successive defeats and despaired from ever receiving enough external support to match the level of direct backing Iran and Russia gave loyalist forces on the battlefield, they became increasingly prone to defect and turn to the better resourced and organized hardline groups such as the al Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. 

despaired：望みを失う

This trend has only accelerated in recent months with the end of the CIA program that supplied rebel groups in Syria with key weaponry such as anti-tank guided missiles. Unlike the Syrian groups supported by Turkey — and previously by the United States — in northern Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has no compunction in upholding its own interests over Ankara's. Indeed, in recent months, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has even monopolized control over Idlib province by cracking down on Turkish-backed rebel groups. For Turkey, the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib threatens to entirely remove what little influence it has remaining in the province.


Finally, and most important, Turkey has consistently prioritized its goal of undermining and pushing back against Kurdish empowerment in Syria over its desire for regime change in Damascus. Before the United States started to provide significant support to the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces in 2015, and before the loyalists started to regain momentum in the conflict that same year, Turkey could undermine the Kurds and pursue regime change in Damascus through its support of rebel forces. 

However, as the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces spread their control over northern Syria and as the rebel hold was reduced through consecutive loyalist offensives, Turkey could no longer rely on weakened and distracted rebel forces to act as a bulwark against the Kurds, much less topple the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. To that end, Ankara has increasingly prioritized an improved relationship with Moscow in the hopes that the influence leveraged through that relationship would allow it to counter the emboldened Kurds. For instance, Turkey still can hope to translate a cooperative mission in Idlib with the Russians into an opening for a subsequent operation against the Kurdish forces of the People's Protection Units (YPG) in Afrin canton, which are thus far insulated by a Russian presence. 

consecutive：連続した
distracted：動転した
bulwark：防波堤
emboldened：元気づける
canton：行政区
insulated：絶縁する

A Turkish operation into Idlib province is nevertheless not without considerable risk. Indeed, there is even a possibility that it could backfire on Ankara. First, there is still no guarantee that such an operation would translate into increased Russian assistance against the YPG and predominantly Kurdish Syria Democratic Forces. Moscow, after all, has maintained its ties with the Syrian Kurds and has even blocked Turkish operations against the Kurds in the past. Further, Turkey and its local rebel allies may find themselves going up against very determined resistance from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fighters, many of whom are locals, and operating in terrain that is geographically more challenging than that faced by Turkey and its proxies during Operation Euphrates Shield. Turkey, however, appears determined to tolerate the risks as it seeks to expand its presence and control in Syria in pursuit of its greater objectives. 

predominantly：圧倒的に
terrain：地形

この地域は極めて複雑だ。トルコはクルドを滅ぼしたいが、アメリカもロシアもそうは思っていない。一方で、トルコはロシアと手を組むことにした。ところがロシアとかイランが支援しているシリア反乱軍がトルコが支援している反乱軍に対して、優勢になってきている。さらに土着のHayat Tahrir al-Shamの勢力も無視できない。ここに軍を進めることはかなりリスクが高い。トルコのさらなる野心をエルドアンは抑えきれないようだ。

木曜日。今日はトクヤマの中原さんとの会食がある。ではまた明日。

Kenya’s electoral poker
Raila Odinga takes a gamble by threatening to boycott Kenya’s election
The first poll was annulled. A second may be violently disrupted
Oct 11th 2017 | NAIROBI

ケニヤの選挙のポーカーゲーム
Raila Odingaはケニヤの選挙をボイコットするぞと脅すことによって勝負をかけている。
最初の投票は無効になった。二回目はひどく混乱するかもしれない。

annulled：無効にする
disrupted：混乱させる



IN THE rickety wooden markets in Nairobi, where traders flog old books, second-hand clothes and kitchenware, walking away is a buyer’s last negotiating ploy. If he is lucky, he will be chased down the street and offered a better price. Raila Odinga, Kenya’s softly-spoken opposition leader, seems to be hoping a similar strategy may rescue his electoral chances. 

rickety：今にも壊れそうな
flog：売る
ploy：(だますための)策略, 手
chased：を追いかけて捕まえる

On October 10th Mr Odinga withdrew from a re-run of the presidential election scheduled for October 26th, arguing that if it went ahead then it would not be free or fair. Courts had already annulled the presidential part of a wider set of elections held on August 8th, after finding problems with the way in which it was run. But no reforms have been made to the electoral process since then, he argued. 

It had already been clear for several weeks that Mr Odinga did not plan to contest the election. His coalition of parties, the National Super Alliance (NASA), had been running a bare-bones campaign. The candidate himself had made plans to travel to Britain and possibly America two weeks before the vote—prime campaigning time—presumably to drum up international support for his withdrawal. 

contest：〈試合選挙など〉を戦う
bare-bones：必要最小限[最低限]の

Yet the announcement still contained a surprise. This is because instead of proposing a straightforward boycott, Mr Odinga seems to be hoping that by standing down he will force the courts to halt the election altogether and order a new one in the future after the parties have nominated new candidates. 

standing：職[地位, 候補]から身を引く 

Under the original Supreme Court ruling that annulled August’s election, the electoral commission has until November 1st to organise a new one. If that deadline is missed then Kenya will be plunged into a constitutional crisis. It is unclear how that would be resolved. Those in the camp of the incumbent president, Uhuru Kenyatta, want an election to be held no matter what. Some hardliners want him simply to be declared president. In parliament MPs pushed through an amendment to the electoral law that automatically awards victory to the remaining candidate if one of them withdraws from a re-run of a presidential election. 

Yet the real crisis is one of legitimacy, not law. Should the courts and electoral commission go ahead with a vote that is not contested by Mr Odinga, his supporters will surely try their best to disrupt it, says Michael Chege of the University of Nairobi. In their strongholds, principally in Western Kenya and certain Nairobi slums, they could prevent the electoral commission from holding a vote that would satisfy the courts. 

legitimacy：正当性

By walking away, Mr Odinga seems to be gambling on his ability to threaten chaos to push Mr Kenyatta to negotiate. But the trouble with that strategy, points out Murithi Mutiga of the International Crisis Group, a think tank, is that Mr Odinga is running out of money. And although protests occasionally gum up the centre of Nairobi, even his most partisan supporters will not stay on the streets indefinitely. The worst outcome, for Mr Odinga and Kenya, is that his bluff is called and the election goes ahead without him. Mr Kenyatta might remain president, but a large proportion of the population would not recognise his right to rule and would feel left out of the political system. 

occasionally：たまに
gum：(ゴム状のもので)A〈機械など〉を固めて動かなくする; (失敗して)A〈仕事など〉を台なしにする
indefinitely：いつまでも
feel left out of：無視すると感じる

ケニヤの選挙が第一回目が不正があったので、無効になって、第二回目が行われるが、反対派のオディンガは不正の根源を是正しない限り、選挙をボイコットすると言った。彼のハッタリはケニヤッタと裁判所に通じるのかどうかはわからない。仮に今のままで選挙を行ってしまうと、多くの国民は現在の政治システムを疑うことになるだろう。

水曜日。いつもの会食が昼にある。錦糸町のアクセスだ。今日は海野塾もある。ではまた明日。

Theresa May’s weakness at home is slowing down the Brexit talks
An embattled Tory prime minister faces make-or-break European Union talks. Sounds familiar?
Oct 11th 2017

テレザメイの母国での弱みがBrexitの話し合いを停滞させている。
多くの問題を抱えたトーリー党の首相はEUとの話し合いの成否に直面している。そうだよね？




THE parallels are almost oppressive. Successive Tory leaders, from Margaret Thatcher to David Cameron, have experienced painful party rifts over Europe. The most telling was John Major’s battle in the 1990s with anti-EU Tory rebels over the Maastricht treaty, which set up the single currency. Now, as Theresa May fends off coup attempts from her own backbenchers, Tim Bale, a historian of the Conservative Party at Queen Mary University of London, detects a whiff of those days in the air. Indeed, many ardent Brexiteers cut their teeth causing trouble then. 

parallels：類似点
oppressive：耐えがたいほど
Successive：(一貫して)引き続く
rifts：仲違い
fends：〈攻撃など〉をかわす
whiff：兆候

The problems for Theresa May are a lot bigger, however. Brexit is a far riskier proposition than arguing over a treaty. The economy is in worse shape now, with sterling weak and growth forecasts being cut. Today’s far-left Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is a more disturbing alternative than his predecessors were. As Mrs May prepares for an EU summit next week, she might echo Mr Cameron’s one-time hope that the party would stop “banging on about Europe”. 

echo：真似る

Sadly, the timetable makes that impossible. The summit had been due to agree that sufficient progress had been made on the Article 50 Brexit divorce (which includes such matters as EU citizens’ rights, the border in Ireland and the exit bill) to allow the start of talks about trade. But it is clear this will not happen. Mrs May argued this week that, after her recent speech in Florence, in which she proposed a transitional arrangement and implicitly offered some €20bn ($24bn) towards Britain’s tab in Brussels, the ball was in the EU’s court. The European Commission promptly lobbed it back. And Donald Tusk, the European Council’s president, spoke only of possible agreement in December. 

due：するはずである
transitional ：暫定の
tab：勘定(書き); つけ; (多額の)請求

The delays are partly the EU’s fault for over-rigid sequencing. The truth is that neither Ireland nor the exit bill can be settled without some deal on future trade. But more blame attaches to Mrs May. Her fuzziness over what Britain wants the eventual relationship to look like has become grating. More important, her political weakness is making it hard for the EU to engage in serious negotiation. 

sequencing：優先順序付け
fuzziness ：あいまいさ
grating：〈人の声などが〉きしんで[キーキーと]耳障りな; 〈物などが〉不愉快な

The fact that her snap election in June backfired is only the starting problem. Her inability to control the cabinet, with Boris Johnson, her foreign secretary, openly contradicting the line of her Florence speech, is more aggravating. Her lack of clout in the party and the desire of many Tory MPs to replace her before the next election in 2022 further undermine her. She could shore up her position by firing Mr Johnson, but at the cost of inflaming Brexiteers’ demands for her to sack the pro-Remain chancellor, Philip Hammond, as well. 

backfired：〈計画言動などが〉【人などにとって】逆効果になる, 裏目に出る
contradicting：食い違う
aggravating：さらに悪化させる
shore：(さらに悪化しないように)…を持ちこたえる(up)
inflaming：火をつける

The hope after the Florence speech was that, even if trade talks could not start, the EU would open negotiations on transitional arrangements to avoid a cliff-edge Brexit when the Article 50 deadline expires in March 2019. The commission’s negotiator, Michel Barnier, still wants to do this. Yet France and Germany are opposed, showing again that it is national governments, not the Brussels institutions, which are the toughest customers on Brexit. Informal scoping out by the EU 27 of both transitional and trade arrangements is likely to begin after the summit, even so. One risk is that they once again cement in place too rigid a negotiating mandate. 

scoping：…をよく見る, 詳しく調べる(out)

On transition, the reality has always been that nothing will be on offer except a prolongation of the status quo. Mrs May acknowledged this in Florence, when she said that business should not have to adjust twice to a post-Brexit world. This week she conceded that the European Court of Justice would continue to play a role during this period, which she again said would last “around two years”. Although she was more ambiguous about remaining in the single market and customs union, in practice Britain will have to stay in both. 

prolongation：延期
conceded：を(事実だと)(しぶしぶ)認める
ambiguous：曖昧な

That prospect causes jitters among Brexiteers, who worry that a lengthy transition will amount to continuing membership without voting rights. Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, a consultancy, notes that the past six months have seen the slow but steady acceptance by Tory Brexiteers of a softening of Mrs May’s position on transition, on the basis that a year or two of delay is a price worth paying for the ultimate prize. But that logic may cease to work if transition is prolonged and doubts grow about the final destination. 

jitters：落ち着かない
softening：和らげる

This has led to the revival of an old favourite among hardliners: a no-deal Brexit. Mrs May’s Florence speech dropped her earlier mantra that no deal was better than a bad deal, but her weakening position has forced her to wheel it out again. This week she talked of the need to plan for the worst outcome. Two new government white papers, on customs and future trade policy, discuss the possibility of a contingency scenario with no agreement. On October 11th Mr Hammond said the Treasury was not yet ready to spend money on such plans, but he also warned of the risk of a “bad-tempered” breakdown of talks. 

wheel：〈使い古された考え議論人など〉を持ち出す
bad-tempered：気難しい

Some Brexiteers who fear the referendum will be betrayed (a fear amplified when Mrs May this week refused to say she would back Brexit in a referendum held today) want a walkout. Even those who recognise the disruption it might cause favour a no-deal threat, in the belief that it strengthens Mrs May in Brussels. Many reckon Mr Cameron failed to win a better deal in his renegotiation of Britain’s membership terms in early 2016 largely because he was not prepared to walk away. 

back：支持する
walkout：ストライキ

Yet there are two problems with reviving “no deal” talk. The first is the huge potential damage. The risks of airlines ceasing to fly, lorries backing up outside ports and hospitals losing access to radioactive materials may be exaggerated, but they are real even so. A no-deal exit would damage the EU, too, but a lot less. This leads to the second problem, which is that other EU countries do not believe Britain’s threats to walk out. They see British banks and other businesses already talking of leaving the country, and they doubt there is a parliamentary majority in favour of no deal. 

They may well be right. But the danger they overlook is that, even if a Brexit with no deal is unlikely to happen deliberately, it could do so by accident. The clock is ticking and negotiating positions are entrenched. The rational outcome of the Brexit negotiations ought to be a mutually beneficial deal that gets as close as possible to keeping frictionless free trade. But negotiations between an implacably legalistic EU and a politically weakened Mrs May might not always be rational. 

deliberately：故意に・よく考えて
entrenched：変わることにない
implacably：なだめようのない・執拗な
legalistic：｟非難して｠法律にあまりにも固執する

BrexitがイギリスとEUとの交渉で相変わらず、揉めている。イギリスはsingle market and customs unionを期待しているが、テレサメイのイギリスでの立場が弱くなってきていて、意見をまとめられないかもしれない。EUというよりも、独仏がイギリスとの交渉で難色を示している。時間がどんどん経ってしまうとno dealになってしまう危険性があるが、それは避けなければならない。

火曜日。ではまた明日。

Why America has lifted sanctions on Sudan
Problems remain in the African state, but the outlook is less bleak
Oct 10th 2017by T.G.

アメリカは何故スーダンへの制裁を止めたのか。
問題はアフリカの国家の中に存在しているが、良くなる見通しはあまりない。



OCTOBER 6TH marked the end of an era in American diplomatic history. Twenty years after imposing sanctions on Sudan, it lifted them again. The sanctions included a fairly comprehensive trade embargo, a freeze on government assets, and tight restrictions on financial institutions dealing with Sudan. Bill Clinton had introduced them at a time when Khartoum, the Sudanese capital, still harboured terrorists, including Osama bin Laden, and they were extended in 2007 in response to the genocide taking place in Darfur, in the west. 

The reasons for the softening of America’s stance are not immediately obvious. Omar al-Bashir, the president since 1989, is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of orchestrating the Darfuri genocide. Travel bans and international asset freezes remain against those suspected of involvement in the genocide. Human-rights violations are still depressingly common across the country, peace has not yet returned to the mutinous south—and human-rights groups urged Washington to maintain sanctions. Why, then, are they being lifted? 

depressingly：気が滅入るほど
mutinous：反抗的な

The situation in Sudan has improved. Relations with neighbouring countries are better, aid workers are now allowed to reach civilians wounded in conflict zones and greater efforts have been made to end the wars with southern rebels. The government also appears to have stopped meddling in neighbouring South Sudan (which has been locked in a bloody civil war since 2013). It has mostly ended its support for armed rebel groups there. But perhaps most important from Washington’s perspective is the regime’s co-operation in fighting terrorism. Gone are the days when Khartoum was a mecca for international jihadists. The CIA, which now has a large office in the capital, was especially keen to see sanctions lifted. 

meddling：干渉する

Other countries have opened their arms to Sudan. First came China, which has invested in the oil sector since the early 2000s. Malaysia and India soon followed. More recently, Sudan started cosying up to Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, after expelling some Iranian diplomats in September 2014. It has sent hundreds of soldiers to fight with the Saudis against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. In return, Saudi Arabia and other friendly states deposited at least $2.1bn in Sudan’s central bank—a lifeline at a time when foreign banks had begun refusing to deal with the country. They also urged America to drop sanctions. Meanwhile, Sudan indicated its desire to improve its international standing by working with the European Union to reduce undocumented migration into Europe, clamping down on people-trafficking and improving border security in exchange for €100m in aid. 

cosying：の機嫌をとる, Aに取り入る

By 2016 many in Washington had concluded that the embargo had achieved little beside making life tougher for ordinary Sudanese. In January 2017 Barack Obama announced a temporary easing of sanctions, with a review due in six months. The policy was part of a general Obama-era shift away from the use of economic embargoes as a diplomatic tool. Mr Obama engaged with Iran and Cuba in the hope that the promise of investment would strengthen reformist elements in both regimes. He also lifted sanctions against Myanmar. 

little beside：と無関係ではない

Donald Trump does not share such instincts. Sudan was one of six countries listed on the travel ban on Muslim-majority countries (though it has now been removed from the list), and he has imposed new sanctions on Iran, Cuba and Venezuela. In July Mr Trump delayed lifting Sudanese sanctions by four months. But he agreed to lift them permanently after the Sudanese government severed all ties with the North Korean government. (There is evidence to suggest that Sudan has tried to buy arms from North Korea in recent years.) Mr Bashir may be an alleged war criminal, but even he becomes an ally against Kim Jong Un and his regime. 

instincts：衝動

スーダンはテロリストを匿ったり、ダルフールの虐殺があったので、ビル・クリントン以来、２０年間、制裁を受けてきたが、ここに来て、オバマが解除した。トランプは北朝鮮との関係を断ち切れば、解除をそのまま継続すると言っている。この解除によって、欧米、アジア、中国の諸国がスーダンとビジネスを再開した。スーダンはイランを追い出して、サウジと提携し、イエメンに兵を送ることによって２１億ドルの資金を受けることができた。

月曜日。ではまた明日。

Relations between Turkey and America are near breaking point
A visa ban leads to a sharp deterioration in relations between two NATO allies
Oct 9th 2017 | ISTANBUL

トルコとアメリカとの関係は限界点に近い。
ビザの発給禁止は２国のNATO同盟国間の関係の急激な悪化に導いている。



TWO weeks after Donald Trump declared they were as good as ever, America’s relations with Turkey have sunk to their lowest point in over four decades. On October 8th the American embassy in Ankara announced it was suspending visa services across the country to “reassess” the Turkish government’s commitment to the security of its diplomatic facilities and staff members. Within hours, Turkey countered by saying it would no longer accept visa applications by American citizens. (About 450,000 Americans visited Turkey last year.) 

reassess：再検討する
countered：だと反論する

The Turkish lira plummeted as much as 6.6% against the dollar on the news, the biggest drop since the abortive coup of July 2016. Turkish Airlines, the country’s national carrier, saw its shares fall by 8%. 

abortive：失敗に終わった

The spark that lit the powder keg came on October 4th, when police in Istanbul arrested Metin Topuz, a Turkish member of staff at the American consulate, on charges relating to the coup and to espionage. (A total of about 50,000 people have been arrested on similar charges over the past year.) The bulk of the evidence against Mr Topuz seemed to consist of conversations he had conducted four years ago with Turkish officials linked to the Gulen movement, the group accused of spearheading last year’s failed coup. The embassy has described the allegations against him as “wholly without merit.” 

powder keg：火薬ダル
spearheading：〈攻撃事業運動など〉の先頭[陣頭]に立つ
wholly without merit：全く価値の無いことだ

The incident is far from a first. A translator at another American consulate in Turkey was arrested in March on suspicion of links to an outlawed Kurdish insurgent group. An American pastor, Andrew Brunson, has languished in a Turkish prison for a year over alleged contacts with Gulen sympathisers. And reports in the Turkish media suggest that an arrest warrant has been issued for another Turkish national employed at the Istanbul consulate. 

languished：【場所に】(長期間)やむなくいる, 閉じ込められる
arrest warrant：逮捕令状

Despite Mr Trump’s remark, made during a meeting on September 21st with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that the two NATO countries were “as close as we’ve ever been”, relations have been heading south for at least a couple of years. Most Turks continue to believe that the Americans had a hand in the failed coup, a belief compounded by the fact that its suspected ringleader, the Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen, lives in Pennsylvania. Mr Erdogan has sought the imam’s extradition for over a year, despite failing to produce conclusive evidence linking him to the coup. 

heading south：〈かつては良かった状況組織基準などが〉悪くなる, だめになる
hand：手伝い
compounded：〈良くない物事が〉〈問題困難な状況など〉をさらに複雑にする, さらに悪化させる
ringleader：首謀者・ボス
extradition：(国外逃亡犯の)本国送還
conclusive evidence：決定的証拠

Turkey is also livid with America, its NATO ally, for arming a Kurdish militia it considers a terrorist group in the war against the jihadists of Islamic State (IS) in neighbouring Syria. America, meanwhile, remains angry that Turkey turned a blind eye to IS and other jihadist networks on its own side of the border until about 2015. Mr Erdogan’s increasingly toxic reputation in Washington took another hit earlier this spring, after his bodyguards were caught on video beating up non-violent protesters a mile from the White House. 

livid：激怒した
toxic:：我慢ならない

Yet another source of tension is Turkey’s increasing reliance on Russia for its security needs. Last month, the Turkish government confirmed that it had made a down-payment on the purchase of Russia’s S-400 air-defence system. This week, Turkey and Russia launched a joint operation intended to contain the spread of jihadist groups in the Syrian province of Idlib. 

down-payment：(分割払いの)頭金

For America, the arrest of the consular staffers and the continued imprisonment of the pastor have struck a particularly sensitive nerve. Officials in Washington seem to have reached the conclusion that Turkey’s government is using the men as hostages in an attempt to put pressure on the American judiciary. (Germany’s government considers a dozen or so German nationals in Turkish custody, including a couple of journalists, part of a similar strategy.) Mr Erdogan no longer bothers to suggest otherwise. “They tell us to give them the pastor,” he said in a speech on September 28th, referring to Mr Brunson. “You have a pastor as well. Give us [Mr Gulen], then we will try him [Mr Brunson] and give him to you.” 

staffers：(特に行政[報道]機関の)職員, 社員

Most analysts agree it is in the interest of both sides to prevent the situation from escalating. That is indeed the most likely scenario. But with leaders as impulsive and as thin-skinned as Mr Trump and Mr Erdogan at the helm, nothing is certain. 

impulsive：衝動的な, 一時の感情に駆られた
thin-skinned：(批判侮辱などに)すぐ怒る, 憤慨しやすい
helm：かじとり

エルドアンとトランプの仲が悪い。ビザの発給を停止している。エルドアンは昨年のクーデターはアメリカの策略だと思っている。その為、アメリカのNGOを排除したり、トルコにいるアメリカ人を逮捕している。トルコはアメリカにギュレンを返せと言っているが、アメリカは民主主義の国だから そう簡単には送還はしないだろう。さらに、トルコはロシアに接近し、軍用機の購入契約までしている。そのうちに、NATOも撤退してしまうのかもしれない。

日曜日。ではまた明日。

Goldman Sags
For the first time, the famous investment bank has more of a business than an image problem
Oct 5th 2017

ゴールドマンの下落
初めて、有名な投資銀行がイメージの問題ではなく、ビジネスの問題に直面している。


Sag：下落




BY TRADITION, Goldman Sachs makes risky financial wagers and stays icy cool under pressure. A bad trade on Treasury bonds in 1986 almost killed it, but was eventually cauterised. The firm’s “big short” in early 2007, when it bet that subprime securities would tumble, helped it to book profits of $14bn in 2008-09 and to perform relatively well during the worst financial crisis for 80 years. Goldman also values candour, at least inside the firm. In this spirit it is time to acknowledge that the bank’s strategic direction is beginning to feel like a bum trade. Its defence is that it is no worse than its group of peers, but being average on Wall Street is a mug’s game and the antithesis of the Goldman way. 

wagers：賭け(事); 賭けた物[金銭]; 賭けの対象(bet)
cauterised：(感染を防ぐために)〈傷口〉を焼く
candour：(態度や言葉の)率直さ, 素直さ, 偏見のなさ(frankness)
bum：愛好家、〜好き、〜狂
defence：防御体制
mug’s game： ばか者だけしかやらないもうかりっこない仕事
antithesis：アンチテーゼ, 反対命題, 反定立

While outsiders think that Goldman’s alumni run the world, on Wall Street the firm’s aura has dimmed. Rival banks view it with indifference, not awe. After shining in the years after the crisis, since 2012 its total return (share price gain plus dividends) has lagged behind the average of its four big American rivals by 36%. Other banks have caught up and Goldman’s trading arm, which executes deals for clients, is misfiring, with its market share dropping. It has struggled to adapt to placid markets and a clampdown on proprietary trading (trading for your own profit). 

aura：(人場所物の独特の)雰囲気, オーラ(atmosphere)
dimmed：霞む・うすれる
indifference：無関心・よそよそしい
awe：畏れ, 畏敬の念, 畏怖(fear)
misfiring：〈計画などが〉失敗する, 不発に終わる, うまく行かない
placid：おだやかな
clampdown：【違法行為などの】(厳重な)取り締まり
proprietary：専売の〈商品情報など〉

Inevitably that gives rise to doubts about the firm’s strategy, which is to slash costs and sit tight, hoping the industry’s nuclear winter ends. So while lower bonuses mean the pay bill is down by 42% since 2007, there has been no wholesale retreat from the main businesses—advising and lending to companies, trading securities and asset management. Meanwhile, the bank is grappling with three problems: mediocre profitability, unconvincing capital allocation and a tricky management succession. 

Inevitably必然的に, 必ず; ｟おどけて｠(結果的に)予想通り
sit tight：態度を変えない, じっと我慢する
nuclear：(核戦争後の)核の冬〘太陽光遮断による地球の冷却化現象〙
grappling：取り組む
mediocre ：｟けなして｠平凡な, 二流の
unconvincing：〈説明議論が〉説得力のない, 〈描写などが〉本物らしくない
tricky：〈物事が〉巧妙な, 手の込んだ; 〈仕事などが〉扱いにくい, 微妙な
succession：継承

Back when it was a partnership, Goldman was more profitable than Facebook is now. Its return on equity was 38% in 1998, before it went public. In 2007 its ROE was 29%, but it fell to 9% in the most recent quarter. Two-thirds of this drop reflects tougher capital rules. Its level of ROE matches the average of JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America. Investors expect a mild recovery, but do not expect Goldman to be exceptional, so its shares do not trade on a notably superior multiple of book value, as they usually did in the glory years between 2006 and 2013. 

notably：特に・顕著に
superior multiple：より優れている倍数

Another gauge is profits relative to risk-weighted assets, a measure that regulators use to calibrate banks’ risk and size. For every $100 of such assets Goldman made $1.9 of pre-tax profits in 2016, less than the peer group’s average of $2.0. Each bank has a different mix of businesses, but you can compare Goldman to a best-in-class “clone” made up of JPMorgan’s investment banking and asset-management divisions. The clone made $2.2. (Goldman says that this comparison is too crude.) 

gauge：尺度
calibrate：〈計器など〉の目盛り[口径]を測定する[調整する, 決める]
clone：｟くだけて｠まったく同じようなもの
crude：おおざっぱ

Mediocre profitability reflects unwieldy asset allocation. Goldman has toiled to cut its balance-sheet, particularly in bond-trading. But it has been hit especially hard by new “Basel 3” rules which determine how its risk-weighted-assets are calculated. As a result Goldman’s have risen by 35% since 2012. The trading arm ties up two-thirds of this, especially its derivatives book. Its lending operation has grown, with exposures to higher-risk firms—those with a credit rating of BBB or less—rising 151% to $129bn. 

unwieldy：(大きさ重さなどのため)扱いにくい, 動かしにくい〈事柄が〉手に負えない; 〈組織などが〉(大きすぎるなどとして)非効率的な
toiled：苦労して進む
derivatives：デリバティブ〘債券株式などから派生した金融商品〙
exposures：〔投資家などが〕リスクにさらされる度合い

Goldman does not reveal the ROEs of these operating segments but they can be imputed. In 2016 the trading unit appears to have had an ROE of 7% and its lending unit 5%. Most firms would have wielded the knife deeper. The bank has new projects, such as its small online consumer bank. It has returned cash to shareholders. But its core strategy is to wait for trading to recover. This may happen. Volatility may pick up, European competitors might quit the game, or emerging economies could boom. 

imputed：《経済》〔価値が〕帰属された◆実際に金銭上の取引は発生しなくても、一定の金額のやりとりが発生していると見なされるもの。例えば自宅には家賃を支払わないが、家賃相当の金額が動いていると見なすことができる。
wielded：武器道具などを握る, 持つ; …を使う

It is less clear how any of these events would lift the trading division’s returns to a punchy level. There have been highs and lows since the crisis, but its average ROE has been only 10%, based on current capital rules. If the terrible trio of Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse quit the trading game altogether and Goldman won a quarter of their business, its trading division’s ROE would be a lukewarm 9%. China’s markets are booming but local firms dominate, and Goldman is weak in India. 

punchy：力強い
lukewarm ：熱のない, 煮え切らない

Goldman’s “hang-in-there” strategy feeds into the discussion over succession. Lloyd Blankfein has been the boss since 2006, and—it must be said—over the entire period has the best record of any banker other than Jamie Dimon at JPMorgan. But more recently Mr Blankfein may have been too tolerant of the trading division, where he and several lieutenants made their names. 

feeds：提供する・煽る
tolerant：寛容な、寛大な、懐の深い

The problem is that even if he goes, there is no quick fix. The firm’s other businesses—advising companies and asset management—are excellent but mature. A few romantics imagine Goldman could return to being a partnership, but that is silly. In 1998 the partners had $6bn of capital tied up in it; now they would need $97bn to buy it. Might Goldman combine with a commercial bank, a model it flirted with in the 1990s and which JPMorgan has perfected? The only major lender without a big investment bank is Wells Fargo, and the combined firm would have $3trn of assets, enough to make regulators ululate. 

flirted：【危険災害などを】(深刻に考えず)軽々しく扱う; 【考えなどを】もてあそぶ; ≪…に≫ おもしろ半分に手を出す
perfected：を完全なものにする
ululate：〈犬などが〉遠ぼえする(howl)

The wonder years
Goldman says that it has a “record of adapting to changing environments” and notes that its average ROE over the past ten years was eight percentage points above the average of its peers. This legacy means that the board will probably stick with the plan and the man for at least a year. After that, mediocre performance would corrode morale and upset external shareholders, who own 90% of the bank. If no trading upsurge comes, Goldman may have to shrink more. Its reign has been short. In the 1980s it was not yet top dog on Wall Street and was a nonentity abroad. People may look back with puzzlement at the two decades when Goldman Sachs was the undisputed king of the investment-banking industry and investment banking seemed to rule the world. 

corrode：侵食させる・蝕む
reign：統治期間・全盛期
puzzlement：困惑


ゴールドマン・サックスに元気がない。パートナーシップの時は良かったが、上場してから冴えない。もともとリスクのあるものに投資をしてきたが、ここに来て、法規制が厳しくなったせいもある。利益率がよその銀行よりも悪くなってしまった。我慢していればいいというものでもなさそうだが、はたして、今後どうするのだろうか。今のままでは社員の士気も落ちてしまう。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。