2017年11月

2017年11月30日

中国においては革新は両刃の剣である。

Oct 24, 2017 | 07:59 GMT
In China, Innovation Cuts Both Ways
By Matthew Bey

中国においては革新は両刃の剣である。

Jack Ma, chairman of China's Alibaba Group, speaks at the 2015 CeBIT expo in Hannover, Germany.
Jack Ma, chairman of China's Alibaba Group, speaks at the 2015 CeBIT expo in Hannover, Germany.(SEAN GALLUP/Getty Images)

China is in a bind. The heavy industry that propelled the country's economy through three decades of dizzying growth has reached its limits. To escape the dreaded middle-income trap, China will need to shift its focus from low-end manufacturing to other economic industries, namely the technology sector. Beijing has put tech at the center of its long-term economic strategy through campaigns such as Made in China 2025 and Internet Plus. But these initiatives alone won't push the Chinese economy past its current plateau. The tech sector is notorious for relentless innovation. And innovation requires flexibility. 

in a bind:ひどく困って
dizzying:〈高さ・速さなどが〉目がくらむような.
reach a plateau:停滞期に入る, 伸び悩む.
notorious:悪名高い, (悪事で)有名な 

For the Chinese government, flexibility is an unsettling prospect. Giving tech companies the leeway they need to keep up with — and, ideally, get ahead of — their competition is the only way Beijing can achieve its goals for economic growth and development. However, granting tech firms and their influential leaders the autonomy required to compete on the global stage could undermine the central government's power over the economy and set an uncomfortable precedent for the rest of China's industries. Faced with the seemingly incompatible tasks of promoting innovation and maintaining control over the economy, the Communist Party of China is struggling to figure out how to regulate the tech sector without stifling it. 

unsettling prospect:不安な将来の見通し
leeway:自由(裁量), 余地
precedent:set [create] a precedent 先例を作る
incompatible:両立しない
stifling:抑圧する

A Brave New World
China's economy has come a long way during the past 30 years. In addition to the giant state-owned enterprises for which the country is famous, or perhaps infamous, a growing number of private companies operate in China today. Companies that are at least partly private, in fact, dominate the Chinese tech sector, though many of the firms still have deep political and financial ties to the government. Beijing's level of involvement and influence varies from company to company, often in inverse proportion to a firm's capabilities. 

infamous:the now infamous journalist 今では悪名の高い報道記者.
inverse:in inverse proportion to  と反比例して.

Many of the most capable and effective technology companies in China are variable interest entities, private firms that have managed to skirt regulations prohibiting foreign investment and list their stock overseas. By following the so-called Sina model — named for the telecommunications company that first exploited the regulatory loophole — China's most successful technology firms have secured the funding and resources they need to get ahead. 

variable interest entity:変動持ち分事業体◆【略】VIE 
US GAAPでは、2つの主要な連結モデルが存在する: (1)変動持分モデル及び(2) 議決権モデルである。 変動持分モデルは、資本が支配的財務持分の特性をもたない事業体に適用される。 変動持分事業体(VIE)ではない事業体は、議決権持分事業体と呼ばれることが多い。
skirt:問題など〉を避けて通る, 回避する.

Listing their shares abroad not only offers tech companies opportunities for financing beyond the Chinese system, which Beijing often uses to influence private firms, but it also gives them greater access to foreign talent and expertise. That said, the companies that have followed this pattern, such as Alibaba Group, Baidu Inc., Tencent Holdings Ltd. and, of course, the namesake Sina Corp., had already established themselves on the Chinese market before setting off overseas. 

namesake:と同名のもの

Beyond the handful of giants at the top of Chinese tech, the rest of the sector is wildly diverse. The vast majority of the country's small firms lack the financing and flexibility to hold their own outside tech hubs such as Shenzhen. Perhaps the most prominent exception is Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., founded 30 years ago by Ren Zhengfei. 

The company has made a name for itself not by courting investment abroad but through its sheer performance, which, coupled with China's steadily growing research and development budget, enabled it to attract world-class engineers. Today, it is one of the country's most proficient tech companies. Most state-owned enterprises, by contrast, have struggled to make their mark in the tech sector, regardless of whether a central, provincial or local authority operates them. 

courting:を求める, 得ようとする They have successfully courted support in America. 彼らはアメリカの支持をうまく取り付けた.
coupled:を関連づける ≪with≫
proficient:熟達[練]した, 技量のある

Total Chinese Investment in Tech Sector, 2005-2017
With such a variety of companies in the field, China's tech sector has become highly competitive. The largest firms — much like their U.S. counterparts, Google, Apple Inc. or Amazon — have to adapt continuously to stay on top of their competition. In the process, they have become leaders in innovation. Huawei Technologies, for example, started its own semiconductor subsidiary to distinguish itself from other Chinese smartphone manufacturers, many of which rely on foreign suppliers for their circuits. And Alibaba ranked seventh among the world's most innovative companies in a recent KPMG survey, beating even Samsung Electronics. 

circuits:回路

Losing Control
All the while, Beijing has used a combination of incentive structures and informal ties to the industry to guide, rather than command, the tech sector. By giving or withholding procurement contract opportunities, tax breaks and access to state investment funds, financial institutions and subsidies, the central government tries to steer the sector as a whole, even if it doesn't directly control the individual companies. Its primary aim in this endeavor is to preserve the social order and to keep possible threats to stability, such as unemployment or inequality, at bay. 

His bodyguard watches him all the while.:ボディガードはその間じゅう彼を見張っている.
steer:を操縦する, …の舵をとる
endeavor:(特に新しくて困難な)努力, 試み
at bay:keep A at bay A〈敵・いやな人・病気など〉を寄せつけない, Aに影響されない.

If a company goes against its policies, Beijing isn't too concerned because it can always intercede should the need arise to prevent bankruptcy or layoffs from jeopardizing the stability it prizes. If, however, a company comes to dominate a certain sector, China's central government starts to worry. A firm that strong, after all, is harder to control with the same old incentives and could brush up against or even break the bounds that Beijing has set for businesses operating in the country. And if left unchecked, it could gain enough financial clout to challenge the current political system. 

intercede:とりなしをする
prizes:が高く評価される, 重んじられる
bounds:限界, 制限範囲, 際限(limit)

As China's tech giants have become more powerful, the variable interest entity model has come under greater scrutiny. The system has been a point of contention for China's leaders since Sina first used it back in 2000, but closing the loophole behind it is easier said than done. Because so many of China's most lucrative companies rely on the Sina model, cracking down on its use would invite serious social and economic repercussions. In fact, nearly three years after China's Finance Ministry proposed legislation to ban the practice for new companies, Beijing has instead opened up more sectors to direct foreign investment. 

scrutiny:監視
contention:論争
repercussions:悪影響

The Ties That Bind
But the failed legislation is only one part of Beijing's efforts to reassert control over the tech sector. China has also tried to give the Communist Party a stronger role in private business. As it is, every Chinese company with more than 50 employees is required to have a Communist Party secretary, and many executives in the country's biggest tech firms have established themselves in China's political sphere as well. (To be fair, though, several of China's most prominent entrepreneurs reached the top of their industries because of their political connections.) 

Baidu, Tencent and consumer electronics company Xiaomi Inc., for example, all have members of parliament among their employees. Furthermore, a growing number of private Chinese companies are drafting their charters to give the Party a formal role in their operations. Beijing has created a system in which Chinese firms have a vested interest in the Communist Party's future. 

Besides politics, several tech companies are also heavily involved in the country's military and strategic industries. Baidu, for instance, has a long-standing relationship with China's security, intelligence and military apparatuses. These companies understand that going against the Chinese government's wishes would jeopardize their business ties with Beijing, while also potentially getting them blacklisted on the domestic market, depriving them of valuable contracts and putting their executives in legal trouble. 

depriving:奪う

Even so, outside the country, many Chinese companies are trying to distance themselves from the government. As the country's foreign technology investments draw scrutiny from Western governments, many private firms are trying to downplay their connections to Beijing. The companies will try to keep the central government at arm's length, at least in their activities overseas, as they look for new opportunities to increase their market share abroad. 

downplay:を控えめに言う[思わせる]; …を過少評価する(play A down).
at arm's length:一定の距離をおいて, 近づけないで

The tech sector's success is a double-edged sword for Beijing. On the one hand, its companies' continued competitiveness is crucial to the country's economic growth. On the other, the stronger the firms become, the greater their threat to the Communist Party's authority will be. Beijing's interests align with those of the tech sector for the time being, but that won't always be the case. Between now and then, the central government will need to find a way to reconcile its need to control private industry with its need for innovation in technology. 

align:提携[連合, 同盟]する, 手を結ぶ;
Between now and then:今後それまでは

Matthew Bey is an energy and technology analyst for Stratfor, where he monitors a variety of global issues and trends. In particular, he focuses on energy and political developments in OPEC member states and the consequences of such developments on oil producers and the international oil market. Mr. Bey's work includes studies on the global impact of rising U.S. energy production, the recent fall in oil prices, Russia's political influence on Europe through energy, and long-term trends in energy and manufacturing. 

中国においては情報技術の革新は経済のけん引であり、中国政府は最大限の支援をする一方で、どのように彼等を管理していくかのジレンマがある。企業の方も政府の意向に沿うように、そのコミュニケーションに気を使いながら、海外の事業展開では政府からの距離を置いて、欧米から政府の関与を疑わられないように配慮している。政府は今後、このような情報産業に対する管理のあり方をどうしていくのかがその課題だ。

金曜日。今日は早稲田大学で勉強会がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 18:59コメント(0) 

無所属の立候補者達がメキシコの大統領の選挙に押し寄せる。 彼らは来年の投票を更に複雑にするだろう。

Independents stampede into Mexico’s presidential election
Non-party candidates will make next year’s vote more complicated
Oct 26th 2017 | MEXICO CITY

無所属の立候補者達がメキシコの大統領の選挙に押し寄せる。
彼らは来年の投票を更に複雑にするだろう。

stampede:〈人が〉 ≪…を≫ あわてて[衝動的に]行う ≪into≫ .



THE split was years in the making. On October 6th Margarita Zavala (pictured), the former first lady of Mexico, resigned from her conservative National Action Party (PAN). She had long hoped to be its nominee for president in elections to be held next July. But the head of the party, Ricardo Anaya, has formed a “Citizens’ Front” alliance with two smaller parties, and looks set to win the group's nomination himself. So Ms Zavala has done something that was never possible before in a Mexican presidential race. She registered as an independent candidate. She was not alone: 85 other independent aspirants had signed up by the deadline on October 14th. 

in the making:作られつつある、進行中の
aspirants:大志[大望]を抱く人; 

The contest to succeed President Enrique Pena Nieto is the fourth since Mexico’s democratic era began in 2000. But it will be the first presidential race since the country began allowing candidates to seek office without the backing of a political party. That is the result of a binding ruling by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, which found that the ban infringed on the right to participate in government. Last year nine independent mayors won election. In 2015 Jaime Rodriguez Calderon (better known as “El Bronco”) ran as an independent to be governor of Nuevo Leon, Mexico’s third-richest state, and won. Now he will run for president. 

a legally binding contract on both sides:双方に対して法的拘束力を持つ契約.
Inter-American Court of Human Rights:米州人権委員会(IACHR)は、この地域で人権を擁護・促進するための米州機構(OAS)の自主的な中央機関である。労働組合運動も含めて、伝統的に差別されている人々や地域社会、グループを対象としている。
 infringed:〈権利・自由など〉を侵害する.

Mexicans’ anger at conventional politicians is helping to open the door to independents. Just 6% of Mexicans are satisfied with the way their democracy is working, the lowest level among 36 countries around the world, according to a recent survey by the Pew Research Centre. Next year they will have plenty of candidates to choose from. 

Maria de Jesus Patricio Martinez, known as “Marichuy”, will be the first indigenous Mexican to run for president since Benito Juarez in the mid-19th century. Armando Rios Piter, a technocratic senator from the southern state of Guerrero, is seen by some as a Mexican answer to Emmanuel Macron, the centrist who won France’s presidential election just a year after founding his own party. 

technocratic:技術系出身の テクノクラシー[技術家政治]の主張者.

Even Mexico’s established parties are trying to show an independent streak. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) of Mr Pena changed its policies to allow a non-member to be the its presidential candidate. This frees the unpopular president to anoint the finance minister, Jose Antonio Meade, as the PRI’s standard-bearer. 

streak:【好ましくない性格などの】傾向, 徴候, …気味
anoint:指名する
standard-bearer:旗手、旗頭 主唱者、唱導者、首領

Not all independents who want to run will be able to. In order to receive public funding for their campaigns, they must collect signatures from 1% of the electorate—both nationwide (meaning nearly 900,000 people) and in at least 17 separate states—by February 12th. All but a few will probably fall short, says Jorge Castaneda, whose attempt to run as an independent in 2006 was blocked in the courts and led to the adoption of the current law. Candidates with support concentrated in a few regions, like Mr Rios Piter and Marichuy, will have difficulty passing the 17-state threshold. Ms Zavala, whose husband, Felipe Calderon, was president from 2006 to 2012, has the advantage of being well known across Mexico. 

public funding:公的資金
all but a few of:一部の〜を除けば
fall short:〔要求・期待・目標・水準・基準などに〕達しない

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a left-wing populist who is the early front-runner in presidential election, fears the independents will mainly hurt him. On October 12th he called El Bronco a Trojan horse sent by the PRI, to which Mr Rodriguez belonged until 2014. The independents, Mr Lopez Obrador explained, “are actually part of the same mafia of power” as the establishment that his party, Morena, rails against. But he is not the only candidate at risk. Ms Zavala, who is backed by 16% of voters, according to a poll published on October 15th by El Financiero, a newspaper, seems to be taking votes from Mr Anaya’s Citizens’ Front.

rail against the government:政府を厳しく非難する

Independents who do get on the ballot may be tempted to drop out and endorse a party candidate in exchange for a cabinet post. Voters wanting to back the eventual winner may rally around the two front-runners late in the race. And there is plenty of time for Ms Zavala and Mr Anaya to make peace before votes are cast. 

In an election with lots of contenders and no second round, the winner could triumph with less than 30% of the vote. Such a weak mandate would hardly equip the next administration to scale up the fight against corruption that all candidates vow to deliver. Voters may be spoilt for choice, but too much choice can be a spoiler. 

contenders:競争者
mandate:信任
spoilt:spoil everything 何もかもだめにする
spoiler:スポイラー 航空機などの翼の上面にある板状の可動装置。立てた状態にすると揚力が減少する。

メキシコの選挙が来年あるが、米州人権委員会の規定で、無党派の人が大統領の選挙に出馬できるようになった。もちろん、選挙の公的資金を得るためには事前に有権者の1%と17州の人たちから署名を貰わなければならない。それでも、今までのような党の代表だけでなく、無党派の人が立候補できるので、来年の選挙は混乱するだろう。

The first data from a repository of living human brain cells
Waste not, want not
Oct 26th 2017

生きた人間の頭脳の細胞の貯蔵所からのはじめてのデータ
無駄がなければ不足もない

repository:貯蔵[保管, 収納]所
Waste not, want not.:無駄がなければ不足もない



PROFITABLY recycling waste is always a good idea. And the Allen Institute for Brain Science, in Seattle, has found a way to recycle what is perhaps the most valuable waste of all—living human brain tissue. Understandably, few people are willing to donate parts of their brains to science while they are still alive. But, by collaborating with seven local neurosurgeons, the institute’s chief scientist, Christof Koch, and his colleagues, have managed to round up specimens of healthy tissue removed by those surgeons in order to get to unhealthy parts beyond them, which needed surgical ministration. Normally, such tissue would be disposed of as waste. Instead, Dr Koch is making good use of it. 

work more profitably:より多くの利益が出るように仕事を進める
tissue:(動植物の細胞から構成される)組織
round up:〈人々・動物たちなど〉を駆り集める; 〈散らかった物・証拠など〉を集める
specimens:collect specimens of butterflies チョウの標本を集める
ministration:奉仕、援助

The repository the cells from these samples end up in is a part of a wider project, the Allen Cell Types Database. The first data from the newly collected human brain cells were released on October 25th. The Allen database, which is open for anyone to search, thus now includes information on the shape, electrical activity and gene activity of individual human neurons. The electrical data are from 300 live neurons of various types, taken from 36 people. The shapes (see picture for example) are from 100 of these neurons. The gene-expression data come from 16,000 neurons, though those cells are post-mortem samples. 

shape:What shape is the island? その島はどんな形なの:
electrical :electrical wiring 電気配線(工事)
postmortem:検視、死体解剖

inRead invented by Teads
The human brain is the most complex object in the known universe. Because it is more complicated than animal brains in ways that (say) human livers are not more complicated than animal livers, using animal brains as analogues of human ones is never going to be satisfactory. Dr Koch’s new database may therefore help explain what is special about human brains. That will assist understanding of brain diseases and disorders. It may also shed light on one of his particular interests, the nature of consciousness. 

livers:肝臓
analogues:相似器官
consciousness:意識 思考

Not, perhaps, by coincidence, this week has also seen a boost to the Allen Institute’s finances. Although it is bankrolled to a large extent by its founder, Paul Allen, who was also a founder of Microsoft, other sources of dollars are always welcome. The American taxpayer is about to provide some, via the country’s National Institutes of Health, in the form of three five-year grants with a total value of nearly $100m—including nearly $20m to create a “multimodal atlas of human brain cell types”. Every little helps. 

bankrolled:〈事業など〉に資金援助をする(finance).
multimodal:多様な
atlas:地図帳

脳細胞がどうなっているかの研究が始まっている。人間の脳は複雑で、こうした脳の働きの研究に関して億単位のドルの投資が始まった。まだ、緒についたばかりだが、政府もそうした研究に投資をしだした。その形状、情報の流れ方、遺伝子の活動の仕方を研究している。

木曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 08:42コメント(0) 

2017年11月29日

皇帝が生まれる。 世界が10月革命の100周年を記念するときに、ロシアは再び、皇帝の治世になる。

A tsar is born
As the world marks the centenary of the October Revolution, Russia is once again under the rule of the tsar
Oct 26th 2017

皇帝が生まれる。
世界が10月革命の100周年を記念するときに、ロシアは再び、皇帝の治世になる。

centenary:100周年記念(祭)


SEVENTEEN years after Vladimir Putin first became president, his grip on Russia is stronger than ever. The West, which still sees Russia in post-Soviet terms, sometimes ranks him as his country’s most powerful leader since Stalin. Russians are increasingly looking to an earlier period of history. Both liberal reformers and conservative traditionalists in Moscow are talking about Mr Putin as a 21st-century tsar. 

Mr Putin has earned that title by lifting his country out of what many Russians see as the chaos in the 1990s and by making it count again in the world. Yet as the centenary of the October revolution draws near, the uncomfortable thought has surfaced that Mr Putin shares the tsars’ weaknesses, too. 

make it count:〔しっかり取り組んで〕(それを)有意義なものにする

Although Mr Putin worries about the “colour” revolutions that swept through the former Soviet Union, the greater threat is not of a mass uprising, still less of a Bolshevik revival. It is that, from spring 2018 when Mr Putin starts what is constitutionally his last six-year term in office after an election that he will surely win, speculation will begin about what comes next. And the fear will grow that, as with other Russian rulers, Tsar Vladimir will leave turbulence and upheaval in his wake. 

“colour” revolutions:2000年ごろから、中・東欧や中央アジアの旧共産圏諸国で起こった一連の政権交代を総体的に指す。色の革命では、腐敗が蔓延しあるいは独裁的である政権に立ち向かった際、または民主主義や民族自決を求めた際に、そのほとんどで非暴力的活動が行われ、これらの動きにおいてはその象徴として色や花が当てはめられた。非暴力抵抗を実行するという点において非政府組織 (NGO) や、とくに学生運動が重要な役割を果たしたことが特筆される。これらの動きとして挙げられるのは、ユーゴスラヴィア、とくに2000年のセルビアにおけるブルドーザー革命や、2003年グルジアのバラ革命、2004年ウクライナのオレンジ革命、そして暴力が多く用いられたが、2005年キルギスのチューリップ革命がある。いずれも問題とされていた選挙の結果を受けて大群衆が街頭で抗議行動を実施し、反体制派から独裁者とされていたそれぞれの国の指導者の辞任や打倒につながった。
turbulence:(社会的)動乱, 騒乱.
upheaval:(社会・政治などの)大変動, 激変, 激動.
 in A's [one's] wake:Aの通った後に; Aにならって, 続いて; A〈出来事など〉の結果として[によって]

Firm rule
Mr Putin is hardly the world’s only autocrat. Personalised authoritarian rule has spread across the world over the past 15 years—often, as with Mr Putin, built on the fragile base of a manipulated, winner-takes-all democracy. It is a rebuke to the liberal triumphalism which followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. Leaders such as Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, the late Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and even Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, have behaved as if they enjoy a special authority derived directly from the popular will. In China Xi Jinping this week formalised his absolute command of the Communist Party. 

autocrat:独裁者
rebuke:〈人〉を強く非難[𠮟責]する
triumphalism:〈軽蔑的〉勝ち誇った態度 勝利主義◆特定の宗教的・政治的な教義や信条を絶対視すること。
derived:derive great pleasure from working 働くことで大きな喜びを得る.
command:(集団の)指揮(権), 統率; (状況などの)掌握, 支配

Mr Putin’s brand of authoritarianism blazed the trail. It evokes Russia’s imperial history (see Briefing), offering a vivid picture of how power works and how it might go wrong. Like a tsar, Mr Putin surmounts a pyramid of patronage. Since he moved against the oligarchs in 2001, taking control first of the media and then of the oil and gas giants, all access to power and money has been through him. These days the boyars serve at his pleasure, just as those beneath them serve at their pleasure and so on all the way down. He wraps his power in legal procedure, but everyone knows that the prosecutors and courts answer to him. He enjoys an approval rating of over 80% partly because he has persuaded Russians that, as an aide says, “If there is no Putin, there is no Russia.” 

blaze the trail:新しい[画期的な]ことをする、新境地を開拓する
evokes:The letter evoked memories of his youth. その手紙は彼の心に若かりしころの記憶を呼びさました.
surmounts:の上にそびえる.
patronage:(組織・事業・芸術などの)後援, (財政)支援.
boyars:a member of the old aristocracy in Russia, next in rank to a prince.
all the way down:端から端まで
prosecutors:検事

Like a tsar, too, he has faced the question that has plagued Russia’s rulers since Peter the Great—and which acutely confronted Alexander III and Nicholas II in the run-up to the revolution. Should Russia modernise by following the Western path towards civil rights and representative government, or should it try to lock in stability by holding fast against them? Mr Putin’s answer has been to entrust the economy to liberal-minded technocrats and politics to former KGB officers. 

plagued:【しつこい質問・要求などで】〈人〉を困らせる
acutely:強く, 激しく, ひどく, 非常に
In Japan, there is a traditional abhorrence of openly confronting sensitive issues. : 日本には伝統的に、デリケートな問題に正面からぶつかることを嫌う気風がある。
run-up:〔直前の〕準備期間[段階]
fast:hold fast on 〜を固守する
entrust:entrust one's car to a friend≒entrust a friend with one's car 友人に車を預ける.

Inevitably, politics has dominated economics and Russia is paying the price. However well administered during sanctions and a rouble devaluation, the economy still depends too heavily on natural resources. It can manage annual GDP growth of only around 2%, a far cry from 2000-08, which achieved an oil-fired 5-10%. In the long run, this will cramp Russia’s ambitions. 

Inevitably:Inevitably, elderly people are more prone to illness than young people. 当然, 高齢者は若年者よりも病気にかかりやすい
pay the price of discipline:試練という犠牲を払う
far cry:far cry from what someone expected(人)の期待とは懸け離れている
oil-fired plant:石油火力発電所
cramp:〈発達・成長・機会など〉を妨げる.

And like a tsar, Mr Putin has buttressed his power through repression and military conflict. At home, in the name of stability, tradition and the Orthodox religion, he has suppressed political opposition and social liberals, including feminists, NGOs and gays. Abroad, his annexation of Crimea and the campaigns in Syria and Ukraine have been burnished for the evening news by a captive, triumphalist media. However justified, the West’s outrage at his actions underlined to Russians how Mr Putin was once again asserting their country’s strength after the humiliations of the 1990s. 

buttressed:〈主張など〉を強化[支持]する; (経済的に)〈人・制度など〉を支える
repression:(暴動などの)鎮圧.
armed [military] conflict:武力[軍事]衝突
the feminist movement:女性解放運動.
burnished:〈イメージなど〉をよくする.
captive:選択の自由のない〈消費者など〉.
triumphalist:in a triumphalist mood 勝ち誇った気分で
justified:正当な理由[根拠]があって
outrage: 激怒, 憤激
humiliations:屈辱, 恥をかく[かかせる]こと.

What does this post-modern tsar mean for the world? One lesson is about the Russian threat. Since the interference in Ukraine, the West has worried about Russian revanchism elsewhere, especially in the Baltic states. But Mr Putin cannot afford large numbers of casualties without also losing legitimacy, as happened to Nicholas II in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 and in the first world war. 

revanchism:(外交上の)失地奪回政策[主義], 報復(主義).

Because today’s tsar knows history, he is likely to be opportunistic abroad, shadowboxing rather than risking a genuine confrontation. The situation at home is different. In his time in power Mr Putin has shown little appetite for harsh repression. But Russia’s record of terrible suffering suggests that, whereas dithering undermines the ruler’s legitimacy, mass repression can strengthen it—at least for a time. The Russian people still have something to fear. 

dithering :動揺, うろたえ

Mother Russia’s offspring
The other lesson is about succession. The October revolution is just the most extreme recent case of power in Russia passing from ruler to ruler through a time of troubles. Mr Putin cannot arrange his succession using his bloodline or the Communist Party apparatus. Perhaps he will anoint a successor. But he would need someone weak enough for him to control and strong enough to see off rivals—an unlikely combination. Perhaps he will try to cling to power, as Deng Xiaoping did behind the scenes as head of the China Bridge Association, and Mr Xi may intend to overtly, having conspicuously avoided naming a successor after this week’s party congress. 

offspring:King Hussein's offspring フセイン王の子供たち
apparatus:a state security apparatus 国家安全保障機関.
anoint:指名する
see off:やっつける
overtly:はっきり, 公然と.

Yet, even if Mr Putin became the eminence grise of the Russian Judo Federation, it would only delay the fatal moment. Without the mechanism of a real democracy to legitimise someone new, the next ruler is likely to emerge from a power struggle that could start to tear Russia apart. In a state with nuclear weapons, that is alarming. 

eminence grise:黒幕
alarming:This is very alarming. これはただごとではないぞ。/風雲急を告げる。

The stronger Mr Putin is today, the harder he will find it to manage his succession. As the world tries to live with that paradox, it should remember that nothing is set in stone. A century ago the Bolshevik revolution was seen as an endorsement of Marx’s determinism. In the event, it proved that nothing is certain and that history has its own tragic irony. 

paradox:矛盾(した状態[行為, 言葉])
set in stone:不変である
endorsement:支持, 承認
determinism:決定論
in the event:結局〔〜という予想とは異なる結果になった〕
tragic irony:悲劇的アイロニー〘登場人物の悲劇的運命を観客が知っていることによって生じる演劇的効果〙.

プーチンが皇帝だということで、たしかに、100年ぶりの大物が現れたということですね。後継者も指定していないところは習近平と一緒です。ロシアはまだGDPが大したことはないのですが、やはり、彼は逸材です。ウクライナ、クリミア、シリアとクリーンヒットを打っています。国内も反対勢力はあるのですが、弾圧はしていない。そのうちするかもしれないが。

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。


swingby_blog at 08:40コメント(0) 

2017年11月27日

ボコ・ハラムは自爆テロに女性を利用している。 彼らは疑念を持たせないようにするために利用して来たが、それは変わっていくかもしれない。

Why Boko Haram uses female suicide-bombers
They used to arouse less suspicion, though that may be changing
Oct 23rd 2017by R.S. | LAGOS

ボコ・ハラムは自爆テロに女性を利用している。
彼らは疑念を持たせないようにするために利用して来たが、それは変わっていくかもしれない。



BOKO HARAM has used more female suicide-bombers than any other terrorist group in history. Of the 434 bombers the group deployed between April 2011 and June 2017, 244 have been definitely identified as female. More may have been. The Tamil Tigers, the previous holders of the gruesome record, used 44 over a decade, according to a study by Jason Warner and Hilary Matfess for the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, an American military college. Boko Haram, whose insurgency has killed more than 30,000 in north-east Nigeria and neighbouring countries since 2011 and displaced 2.1m, is also the first group to use a majority of female bombers. 

Nigeria’s government likes to say that Boko Haram has been “technically defeated”. It split into two factions last year, after Islamic State (IS) declared a preference for a more moderate leader, Abu Musab al-Barnawi, over Abubakar Shekau. The latter’s tactics include using suicide-bombers to blow up mosques and markets, inevitably killing fellow Muslims. (Some analysts dispute the idea of factions, arguing that Boko Haram has always been made up of different cells.) The group is far from vanquished, even though it has been forced out of towns since Muhammadu Buhari, a former military dictator, reclaimed the presidency in 2015. 

vanquished:〈敵など〉を征服する, 打ち破る

In July the branch affiliated to IS killed 69 members of an oil-exploration team. Indeed the group’s suicide-bombings have been especially lethal this year, after a relative lull in 2016. During a period of just over seven weeks from June 1st they killed at least 170 people, according to Reuters, a news agency. The jihadists are sending more children to their death too: the UN has counted 83 used as human bombs this year, four times the total for 2016. Two-thirds of them were girls. 

lull:一時的な休止[途切れ], 小康状態 

The suicide-bombers sent by Boko Haram are, however, less lethal than those used by other groups, say Mr Warner and Ms Matfess. This is partly because around a fifth detonate their explosives when confronted by soldiers, killing only themselves. Yet still the group sends attackers to Maiduguri, the city where the insurgency began, to target the university, markets and camps for the displaced. It is no coincidence that its use of female bombers rose sharply after the kidnapping of the 276 “Chibok Girls” from their school in April 2014. 

lethal:死を引き起こす, 死に至る, 致命的な

Boko Haram realised the propaganda value of women: the use of supposed innocents as lethal weapons has a powerful shock factor. They arouse less suspicion (at least they did when the tactic was first deployed, if no longer) and can more easily hide bombs underneath voluminous hijab. And by sending women to blow themselves up, Boko Haram also saves its male fighters for more conventional guerrilla-style attacks.

voluminous:〈衣服が〉ゆったりした, だぶだぶの.

Some of the women may by willing, if brainwashed, jihadists. Many, though, are believed to be coerced into strapping on bombs. One did so with a baby on her back. Some may see it as a way out of an abusive life as one of Boko Haram’s “wives”, plenty of whom are raped by their “husbands”. Those who give themselves up before detonating their bombs often face a lifetime of stigma, as families and communities prove unwilling to take them back. So whether the women kill anyone or not, Boko Haram sows fear and division, exactly as it intends. 

abusive:abusive parents 虐待する親.
stigma:不名誉, 汚名, 恥辱
sows:sow doubt in his mind 彼の心に不信感を芽生えさせる.

ボコ・ハラムは女性を自爆ているに利用している。この6年間で434人もいて、3万人も殺害してきた。中には子供を背負って自爆する女性もいる。男は兵士になるので、女性を利用している。かつて誘拐した女生徒たちもその例外ではない。

It is now practical to refuel electric vehicles through thin air
Electromagnetic induction gets rid of cables
Oct 28th 2017

大気から電気自動車が充電することが現実味を帯びてきた。
電磁誘導法がケーブルを駆逐する。



A WISE driver keeps an eye on the fuel gauge, to make timely stops at filling stations. For drivers of electric cars, though, those stations are few and far between. The infrastructure needed for refilling batteries has yet to be developed, and the technology which that infrastructure will use is still up for grabs. Most electric cars are fitted with plugs. But plugs and their associated cables and charging points bring problems. The cables are trip hazards. The charging points add to street clutter. And the copper wire involved is an invitation to thieves. Many engineers would therefore like to develop a second way of charging electric vehicles—one that is wireless and can thus be buried underground. 

grabs:A is up for grabs. (希望者なら誰でも)A〈仕事・賞・チャンスなど〉が手に入る, 入手可能である.
fitted: ≪…の≫ 付いた(out)
tripping hazard:つまずく危険
street clutter:散乱物

Electrical induction, the underlying principle behind wireless charging, was discovered by Michael Faraday in 1831, and is widely used in things such as electric motors and generators. Faraday observed that moving a conductor through a magnetic field induced a current in that conductor. Subsequent investigations showed that this also works if the conductor is stationary and the magnetic field is moving. Since electric currents generate magnetic fields, and if the current alternates so does the field, an alternating current creates a field that is continuously moving. This means that running such a current through a conductor will induce a similar current in another, nearby, conductor. That induced current can then be used for whatever purpose an engineer chooses. 

conductor:伝導体
current:電流(electric current)
stationary:I remained stationary from fear. 私は恐ろしくてじっとしていた

In the case of vehicle charging, the first conductor is a length of copper wire. This is coiled around a piece of ferrite (a substance made of oxides of iron and other metals) that amplifies the magnetic field generated. The whole thing is housed in a flat case to create a pad that is easily buried. When a vehicle equipped with a suitable “pickup” coil stops or parks above this device, and alternating current is fed into the pad, a similar current is induced in the pickup. This is then converted into direct current by a rectifier, and is used to top up the vehicle’s battery. The principle is thus pretty simple. But only in recent years has it become practical to use in vehicles. 

ferrite:一般に酸化鉄(掘砲魄貔分とする複合酸化物およびその誘導体。高周波用変圧器・ピック-アップ・テープ-レコーダーの磁気ヘッドなどに広く用いられる。
pad:緩衝材
fed:feed coins into a pay phone 公衆電話にコインを入れる
pickup:電気信号に変換する装置
rectifier:整流器

Leading the recharge
For wireless charging to work, a car must necessarily be fitted with a pickup. At the moment, this is a do-it-yourself business. Evatran, a Virginian firm, for example, sells kits of pickup and pad for between $2,500 and $4,000, installation included. According to Rebecca Hough, the firm’s boss, about 11% of the input power is lost during wireless charging with Evatran’s equipment. But plugging in a cord charger, she says, involves similar losses. The absence in cord charging of the air gap involved in wireless charging means cord charging requires a special (and power-draining) transformer to protect against surges. 

air gap:《電気》空隙 すきま
aserge protector:〘電〙サージプロテクター〘電圧・電流の急増から機器を保護する装置〙.

Evatran is not alone in the DIY induction business. HEVO, a company based in New York, will install a pickup for $3,000. HEVO also wants to take charging out of the home garage, by building networks of pads in cities. These, it intends, will be reserved and rented by drivers using their mobile phones. 

If wireless charging is to become more than a bespoke curiosity, though, vehicle manufacturers will have to get involved as well. This is starting to happen. Evatran says that, next year, at least two carmakers will start fitting its pickups to their products as they are being assembled. WiTricity, a firm in Massachusetts that, like Evatran, designs both pickups and pads, has licensed its pickup design to Toyota, and also to two car-components companies, TDK of Japan and Delphi of Britain. Other carmakers, including Audi, BMW, Daimler, Ford, Jaguar, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo, are likewise expected to launch remote-charging-ready vehicles soon. 

bespoke:あつらえの, 注文作りの〈靴・服・ソフトウェアなど〉
curiosity:珍しい物[事, 人], 骨董品, 希少品

Nor are cars the only vehicles for which wireless charging beckons. Also next year, WAVE, a firm in Utah, plans to install a much more powerful version of the technology at the port of Los Angeles, for a monster vehicle (its tyres are higher than a tall man) which grabs, moves and stacks loaded containers. This will bypass one of the port’s more arcane practices since, at the moment, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union permits only electricians to plug in the cords of electric vehicles at the port, which makes operating such vehicles there remarkably expensive. 

beckons:起こりそうである ≪for≫ .
arcane:謎めいた; 不可解な.

And wireless charging is especially promising for buses, says Andrew Daga, the boss of Momentum Dynamics, a firm in Pennsylvania that sells more of its charging units for buses than for cars. A big obstacle to the uptake of electric buses is the need to take them out of service for part of the day to recharge them. If, thanks to wireless charging, such a bus can sip enough power en route to keep it chugging along until it can be given a charge overnight, it can at last, he says, compete with the diesel sort.

uptake:吸収(量), 摂取(量)(intake).
chugging:〈汽車などが〉ポッポッと音を立てる[立てて進む](away, along).

One place where this is already happening is Milton Keynes, a town north-west of London. The Line 7 route in this town is serviced by electric buses that pause for two to four minutes over charging pads at each end of the line. Both pads have four buried coils, which can transfer power at a rate of 120 kilowatts. (By comparison, Evatran’s latest single-coil charger for cars provides 7.2 kilowatts.) That is enough for the buses to remain in service for 16 hours a day. 

The equipment used in Milton Keynes, which is made by IPT Technology, a German firm, costs about £100,000 ($130,000) a pad. But the buses’ operator, eFIS, calculates that one of their vehicles costs 50 cents a kilometre less to run than a diesel one, thanks to savings on fuel and engine repair. Collectively, Line 7’s eight electric buses drive 700,000km a year. According to John Miles, eFIS’s boss, the firm expects to start servicing a second route in Milton Keynes soon, adding two more charging pads and 11 electric buses to the town’s public-transport network. Wirelessly charged buses also run in Mannheim, Germany, in Utrecht, in the Netherlands, and in the Italian cities of Genoa and Turin, as well as in Salt Lake City and the Californian cities of Lancaster, Long Beach, Monterey, Palmdale and Walnut Creek. Los Angeles is expected to join the list next year. 

A moving experience
All of these efforts, though, still depend on a vehicle stopping when it needs to recharge. In that sense, wireless charging is no different from the plug-in variety. But things do not have to be that way. For induction to work, the vehicle does not need to be stationary. The next step will be charging vehicles on the move. Preliminary trials have started. 

One such is at a 100-metre electrified test track in Versailles, near Paris. This test, run by VEDECOM, a government transport-research institute, should be finished next year, but initial results are promising. The batteries of two minivans travelling simultaneously along the track at more than 100kph can successfully absorb 20 kilowatts each. Qualcomm, the firm that makes the equipment being tested, known as Halo, says it has already licensed the technology involved to 13 car-parts firms. One market the firm thinks promising is electrifying taxi ranks. As Graeme Davison, who is in charge of marketing Halo, observes, “no taxi driver on God’s earth” will keep getting out of his cab to swap charging flexes as the queue at the rank creeps forward. 

ranks:タクシーの客待ち場所(taxi rank).
on God’s earth:全世界に,地球上に
flexes:⦅英⦆(電気)コード(⦅主に米⦆cord).
creep:〈自動車などが〉ゆっくり進む, 徐行する

Israel is also interested in charging vehicles on the move. Shay Soffer, the chief scientist at the country’s transport ministry, has overseen the electrification of a short stretch of road in Tel Aviv, where tests will begin next year. He does not think electrifying roadways will be unworkably expensive. Oren Ezer of ElectRoad, the firm that converted the road in question, reckons a small crew, working three night shifts, could convert a kilometre of tarmac in this way. A lead vehicle would cut trenching into the existing surface and sweep up debris. A second, piled with electrical kit, would follow, with workers tucking the equipment into place in the trench as it travelled. A third would then fill the trench with fresh asphalt. 

in question:問題になっている
tarmac:ターマックで舗装した道路
trenching:〈畑など〉を掘り返す
tucking:He tucked the note into his pocket. 彼はメモをポケットに押し込んだ.

Whether such on-the-fly charging actually will be practical is moot. But the stationary sort looks set for take-off. Though plugs in cars are unlikely to vanish, the power of induction seems here to stay. 

on-the-fly:大急ぎで
moot:議論の余地のある, 未決定の.

電気自動車のコードレスでの充電技術はもうすでに、完了している。これからは移動中の車の充電ができるような技術が開発されつつある。もうすでに電気自動車にそうした設備を搭載した車が出つつある。タクシーも客を待っている間に充電が出来るようになるだろう。

火曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:06コメント(0) 

習近平の政治思想は毛沢東の考えと同列に位置づけられている。 このことは誰も彼に挑戦できないという意味か?

Xi Jinping’s thinking is ranked alongside Mao’s
Does this mean no one can challenge him?
Oct 24th 2017

習近平の政治思想は毛沢東の考えと同列に位置づけられている。
このことは誰も彼に挑戦できないという意味か?



THE constitution of the Chinese Communist Party defines what it means to be a party member and lists the organisation’s core beliefs. On October 24th a new principle was added to it: “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”—quite a mouthful. Xinhua, a government news agency, said the change was approved at the end of a weeklong party congress, an event that takes place every five years. 

THE constitution:中国共産党大会は24日、党の最高規則に当たる党規約に、習近平総書記(国家主席)の名前を冠した政治思想「習近平の新時代の中国の特色ある社会主義思想」を盛り込む改正案を承認し、閉幕した。
mouthful:say a mouthful うまいことを言う.
Party leaders had been parroting the cumbersome phrase for several days since Mr Xi, who is the party’s general secretary as well as president, first mentioned it (albeit without his own name attached) on the opening day of the gathering. Bill Bishop, an American China-watcher, says he writes it as XJPTSCCNE “to avoid getting carpal tunnel syndrome”. 

parroting:(意味を理解せず)〈人の言葉など〉をまねして言う; …をオウム返しに言う.
cumbersome:〈言葉・文などが〉長くて複雑な, ややこしい.
XJPTSCCNE:Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era
carpal tunnel syndrome:手根管症候群 手根管(腱と神経が通っている手首内の管)の中を走る正中神経が何らかの原因で手根管内圧が上がり、圧迫されて引き起こされる疾患群のこと。

Talk of theory and whether someone is named in a document might sound recondite. But this has huge implications because it invests Mr Xi with more power than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. He is the first living leader to be mentioned in the party’s charter since Mao. Deng Xiaoping’s name is also in the constitution but this was an honour accorded him only after he died in 1997. Mr Xi’s two predecessors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, are not named.

recondite:世に知られていない. 難解な, 深遠な〈知識・情報・事実など〉
invests:be invested with the title of A Aの称号を与えられる.
accorded:No special treatment was accorded to both countries. 両国とも特別扱いを受けることはなかった

Moreover, Mr Xi’s thinking uses the same term in Chinese (sixiang) as the one in Mao Zedong Thought. Deng in contrast contributed only a “theory” (lilun), a less elevated term. No one can have more ideological authority than Mr Xi. The person has become the party in a way China has not seen since Mao. 

elevated:(正常値より)高い〈レベル・量〉.

Mr Xi has made influential enemies during his first five years as party chief, notably the allies and clients of the hundreds of influential officials he has had arrested for corruption. He has also complained repeatedly that officials lower down the bureaucracy are stymying his orders. This could change, because to oppose him now would be regarded more than ever as opposition to the party itself. In principle, it could make decision-making in China smoother. But it raises the risk that underlings will tell Mr Xi only what they think he wants to hear, and increase the chances of bad policymaking. 

It also makes the question of the succession moot. By precedent, the general secretary should serve two five-year terms. Mr Xi’s run out in 2022. Under the rules that used to govern Chinese politics, he would be expected to signal his choice of successor at a meeting of the Central Committee that is due to be held on October 25th. 

moot:議論の余地のある, 未決定の.

The candidate would normally be in the new Politburo Standing Committee, or inner sanctum of politics, that will be unveiled after the brief gathering. Rumours are rife that Wang Qishan, the chief graft-buster and close ally of Mr Xi, has been dropped from the Central Committee, and therefore will not be included in the new line-up. There had been speculation that Mr Xi might keep him in place, even though he has passed the normal retirement age of 68. 

sanctum :the inner sanctum 奥の個室.
rife:広まって

It is not clear how much it matters now who is chosen to succeed Mr Xi, or whether he has anyone in mind. With his name in the constitution, he must be the ultimate arbiter of authority as long as he is alive, since he—along with Marx, Lenin, Mao and Deng—defines what it is to be a good Chinese Communist. 

arbiter:裁決[決定]者; (ある分野の)権威(者).

中国共産党大会での今回の習近平の考えを説明していて、彼の政治思想が毛沢東以来のものだということで、党規約に「習近平の新時代の中国の特色ある社会主義思想」として、習近平の名前を付けたのは生前では毛沢東しかいない。汚職撲滅と称して、彼の反対派閥をすべて逮捕してしまった。いよいよ中国が「中華帝国」として世界に出てくる。

月曜日。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 08:58コメント(0) 

2017年11月25日

アフリカの人たちはより健康で、より豊かになっている。 、、、しかし彼らは未だに、戦争と暴力によって抑えられている。

Africans are getting healthier and wealthier...
...but they are still held back by war and violence
Nov 20th 2017 | LAGOS

アフリカの人たちはより健康で、より豊かになっている。
、、、しかし彼らは未だに、戦争と暴力によって抑えられている。



IN MANY ways the story of Africa in the 21st century is one of success. Great strides have been made tackling diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria. A baby born in Africa today is less likely to die young, and more likely to go to school than one born in 2000. Life expectancy at birth increased by nearly ten years, to 60, between 2000 and 2015. But many Africans also feel less secure than they did a decade ago. Civil wars and social unrest have proliferated, according to an index of how Africa’s leaders are performing.



The Ibrahim Index of Governance, produced by the foundation of Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-British telecoms-billionaire-turned-philanthropist, has been trying to quantify how well countries are run since 2007. It is an ambitious effort involving 100 indicators of such things as political participation, respect for human rights and sound economic management. The latest data, released on November 20th, show a worrying divergence. Of the 26 indicators related to health, welfare and education, 21 have improved over the past decade. But 18 out of the 26 measures of safety, stability and the rule of law have deteriorated.

philanthropist:博愛主義者, 博愛家; 慈善家.

Civil wars in several countries, such as Libya, South Sudan and the Central African Republic, drag down the numbers. At the other end of the spectrum, improvements in health, education and social services were led by Rwanda, Ethiopia and Togo. In 28 countries development indicators improved, while security indicators deteriorated.

Overall, instability on the continent has increased. But optimists will note that the trend has slowed in the past five years. Meanwhile, most of Africa’s children are healthier and better educated than ever. That is undoubtedly cause for cheer.

アフリカの環境が良くなってきている。悪いところもあるが、よくなってきている所のほうが多い。課題はどのようにして貧困を減らすかだろう。これが出来ないと、生活が出来ないから、子供が学校にもいけないし、若者がテロに走る。世界銀行がガーナの教育のために投資したが、そうしたことが今このアフリカには必要だ。

Nov 16, 2017 | 17:19 GMT stratfor
In Lebanon, Saudi Arabia Attempts the Impossible

レバノンで、サウジアラビアは不可能なことを試みている。


Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman(FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights
In the regional competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Lebanon is the most recent proxy battleground. Iran's political and security connections in Lebanon mean Saudi Arabia will have a hard time countering its influence there. Saudi Arabia can wield some financial tools to try to pressure Lebanon, but Iran has the means to cushion some of the impact.

mean:をさして言う  I mean you. Stand up! 君のことを言っているんだ, 立ちなさい.:

Saudi Arabia has recently undertaken the mammoth task of rewriting its domestic economic rulebook, but the country's external ambitions are equally as bold. The government in Riyadh has long seen itself as a representative of broader Sunni and Arab interests in the Middle East. Lately, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has amped up attempts to challenge Iran's regional influence, hoping to reassert control over areas that he views as Saudi Arabia's rightful domain.

amped:興奮して, わくわくして; 落ち着かない.

This strategy has manifested on proxy battlegrounds in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and, most recently, in Lebanon. But despite Saudi Arabia's efforts, the kingdom lacks the political and security inroads of its competitor, and it is far more likely to fall flat in Lebanon than it is to successfully curb Iran's influence.

inroads:進出, 参入, 食い込み.
fall flat:完全に失敗する

Riyadh has long been concerned about Tehran's links with Lebanese Shiite political party and militant group Hezbollah, which it sees as a tool for Iran to exert power throughout the region. As early as 1990, Saudi Arabia was exploring ways to limit Hezbollah's (and in turn, Iran's) influence in Lebanon, and that concern was subtle but ever-present when Saudi Arabia mediated the Taif agreement that ended the Lebanese civil war.

subtle:微妙な in a very subtle way 非常に巧妙なやり方で
ever present with :に付きまとって離れない
mediated:(当事者と話をして)〈合意・解決策など〉を成立させる, 得る.
Taif agreement:(also "National Reconciliation Accord," or "Document of National Accord") was an agreement reached to provide "the basis for the ending of the civil war and the return to political normalcy in Lebanon." Negotiated in Taif, Saudi Arabia, it was designed to end the decades-long Lebanese civil war, politically accommodate the demographic shift to a Muslim majority, reassert Lebanese authority in South Lebanon (then occupied by Israel), though the agreement set a time frame for Syrian withdrawal and stipulated (規定する) that the Syrians withdraw in two years. It was signed on October 22, 1989 and ratified on November 4, 1989.
Taif:ターイフ、サウジアラビア西部、マッカ州の都市。

More recently, Saudi Arabia has become uneasy about Iran's increasing role in the Syrian conflict — too close to Lebanon for Riyadh's comfort — and especially Hezbollah's potential to serve as Iran's proxy in Yemen, training and supporting Houthi rebels. A Houthi missile strike over Riyadh on Nov. 5 seemed to suggest to Saudi Arabia that Hezbollah was aiding its enemies in Yemen. And since Riyadh lacks ground troops in Yemen, limiting its ability to respond directly at the launch site, the kingdom has addressed the threat with blockade measures and airstrikes — as well as by putting heavy pressure on Lebanon.

The Pitfalls of Political Meddling
In a televised statement from Riyadh in early November, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri unexpectedly announced his resignation, suggesting that the kingdom is attempting to orchestrate a transition to a Lebanese government that it can better control. After all, when al-Hariri regained his position as prime minister in December 2016, he espoused a desire to compromise with Hezbollah allies.

pitfall;隠れた[気づかない]危険, わな; 誘惑.
meddle in the internal affairs of another country:ほかの国の内政に干渉する.
espoused:支持する

Given that many Lebanese citizens simply want a functioning government, there was widespread support for this stance, which Saudi Arabia is eager to limit. Saudi Arabia seems to be controlling al-Hariri's movements as it searches for a replacement for the post it finds suitable; many believe Saad's brother Bahaa, whom Riyadh believes to be more pliant and willing to take the harder line against Hezbollah that Saudi Arabia craves, is the current top choice.

pliant:pliable 従順な
craves:crave success [attention] 成功し[注目され]たくてたまらない.

But it's uncertain whether Bahaa would be able to pursue any actual policy changes, or even whether the fractured Sunni and Christian communities within Lebanon would accept him. Politically, Hezbollah is deeply entrenched in Lebanon, while the Saudi-backed March 14 Alliance has grown more and more anemic over time.

entrenched:an entrenched attitude [tradition] 確固たる態度[確立された伝統].
anemic:弱々しい

The coalition has been divided by disagreements among its Sunni, Druze and Christian member parties, and it was further weakened when the Progressive Socialist Party left in 2011 and the National Liberal Party followed in 2016. Hezbollah, meanwhile, does not rely just on its own party in parliament, the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc. It also maintains a wide range of allies including the Free Patriotic Movement, the Amal Movement and the Marada Movement.

This strategy will ultimately harm Riyadh's own allies in the country, hampering their ability to make political or economic progress ...
With its involvement in Lebanese politics, Saudi Arabia seems to be throwing a wrench into the system in an attempt to halt any progress that might be helpful to Hezbollah and its allies. But it is not actually proposing an alternative. This strategy will ultimately harm Riyadh's own allies in the country, hampering their ability to make political or economic progress on issues such as oil and gas contracts and much-needed labor market, tax and subsidy reforms.

wrench:throw a (monkey) wrench into:を(わざと)じゃまする, 台なしにする.

A Lack of Proxy Power
Saudi Arabia will also struggle to marshal resistance to Hezbollah as it lacks allied rebel groups — essentially proxy fighters — on the ground to challenge the organization. With Iran's financial and military support, the group has a sizeable militia network in Lebanon boasting transnational capabilities. And Saudi Arabia, for its part, has a poor track record of challenging Iranian-backed militia forces, including in Lebanon. A 2008 conflict within Lebanon that emerged in the aftermath of the 2005 Cedar Revolution pitted Saudi-supported Future Movement fighters against Hezbollah and allied militiamen.

marshal:marshal public support for the war effort 戦争に対する国民の支持を集める
pitted:pit reason against instinct 理性と本能を競わせる.
Cedar Revolution: 杉の革命 レバノン(特に、ベイルート)を中心に、2005年2月14日のラフィーク・ハリーリー前首相暗殺によって発生した一連のデモ活動、市民活動のこととして使われている。

The Future Movement ended up ceding territory to the victorious Hezbollah militiamen in a number of strategically significant Beirut neighborhoods. And since 2008, Hezbollah has only become more of an entrenched security presence within Lebanon. Hezbollah fighters have played prominent roles within Syria over the last several years, deepening their military capability to challenge potential Saudi proxies, while Saudi Arabia lacks the allies it needs to pose a serious threat.

ceding:〈権利・領土など〉を譲渡[割譲]する
pose:pose no threat to humans 人間に何の脅威も与えない.

When Money Isn't Enough
Saudi Arabia may find some success pressuring Hezbollah in the economic realm, where it has leverage in Lebanon. An estimated 200,000 to 500,000 Lebanese work in the kingdom, providing remittances estimated at more than $8 billion that supply hard cash to Lebanon's banking sector. If Riyadh chooses to limit those remittances, it could deliver a major blow to the Lebanese economy. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has the ability to damage Lebanon's crucial tourism industry, which relies heavily on wealthy Arab visitors from Gulf Cooperation Council states.

Already, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have issued warnings to their citizens not to travel to Lebanon. Still, even this effort would only be somewhat effective. Lebanon, whose 25-year civil war ended in 1990, already has weathered worse financial damage than any that Saudi Arabia could inflict. Furthermore, the war left the Lebanese weary of another round of civil conflict, especially one driven by outside actors. Finally, Iran is well-equipped to continue financially supporting its Lebanese allies, mitigating the effectiveness of the kingdom's actions.

inflict:the damage inflicted by toxic chemicals 有害な化学物質がもたらした損害.
weary:I was becoming weary of the monotonous life. 私は単調な生活にうんざりし始めていた.

After stumbling through unrealistic, deeply challenging foreign policy forays in Qatar and Yemen, Saudi Arabia does not seem poised to succeed in strategically influencing Lebanon — no matter how much ambition it may have. And as it attempts to stir up fresh dissent against Hezbollah, Riyadh will struggle to introduce meaningful change rather than just chaos.

stumbling:stumble into the bathroom よろよろとトイレに入る.
forays:侵略  make a first foray into the U.S. market アメリカ市場への最初の進出をする.
poised: 用意[覚悟]ができている ; 今にも動き出す姿勢でいる.
stir:stir emotions [interest] 感情[興味]をかき立てる.

サウジアラビアのサルマン皇太子がレバノンのハリリ首相を辞任させたが、それはヒズボラに対してどう抑えるかの政策の一手段だったが、サウジがイランが背後にあるヒズボラを抑えることは出来ない。カタールやイエメンにおける侵略を見ていると、今回のヒズボラに対しての姿勢も間違えている。レバノンを混乱に陥れてもサウジには何のメリットもない。それをサルマンはわかっているのだろうか。

日曜日。ではまた明日。






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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
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