2018年の予測 (24)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (24)

2018年の予測 (24)

Brexit and Beyond 
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom will spend most of the year figuring out what its relationship with the European Union will look like after it leaves the bloc. Hoping to give companies and households more time to prepare for the Brexit, London and Brussels will negotiate a transitional arrangement as they work to settle a comprehensive trade agreement. Leaders likely will find it easier to approve the transitional agreement in 2018, buying themselves more time to haggle over the trickier aspects of the trade deal, including the movement of services and capital. The trade talks could last into 2019, but even if they wrap up sooner, the parties involved can't approve a deal until the United Kingdom has formally exited the European Union in March 2019.

trickier:〈物・事が〉巧妙な, 手の込んだ; 〈仕事などが〉扱いにくい, 微妙な.〈人などが〉狡猾な, ずるい, 油断のならない.
British Trade


British Trade
In the United Kingdom, the negotiations will call into question its economic and territorial integrity. Political interests in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales will keep a close eye on the talks between London and Brussels, doing what they can to shape the negotiations and voicing their expectations to the British government. London has the ability to resist some of the demands made by Scotland and Wales while reaching compromises on others. But the situation in Northern Ireland will be more delicate. There, tension between unionists and nationalists could complicate the already thorny issues the Brexit has raised regarding the region's shared border with the Republic of Ireland. To avoid introducing controls along its border with Ireland, the United Kingdom may have to soften its stance on leaving the EU single market, where goods and people move freely. 

Our Prime Minister's remark last night has been called into question:首相の昨夜の発言が問題視されている
integrity:完全に一体であること; 無傷の状態

All told, 2018 will be a politically charged year for the United Kingdom, and not just because of the Brexit. The British government will encounter constant political challenges, both from the opposition and from within the ruling Conservative Party. Though the country may replace its prime minister, the Conservative Party will try to avoid early elections in which it could make a poor showing. 

All told:結局のところ
charged:熱気を帯びた, 緊張の高まった〈雰囲気・事態など〉
poor showing of the candidates favored by:〜の支援する候補者のお粗末な選挙結果

A Dilemma for Central and Eastern Europe
As the European Union wrestles with the existential questions before it, countries in Central and Eastern Europe will take different approaches to their own relationships with the bloc. Hungary and Poland, for instance, will fend off Brussels' attempts to interfere with their internal decision-making. Nationalist parties are positioned to perform well in Hungary's general elections in the second quarter of 2018, signaling continuity ahead in Budapest's Euroskeptic domestic and foreign policies. Poland's government likewise will continue to censure the European Union and maintain a tense relationship with Germany. All the while it will preserve its alliance with the United States, which underpins Warsaw's security strategy. 

fend off:〈攻撃など〉をかわす.
censure:〈権力者などが〉 ≪…のことで/…したとして≫ 〈人〉を非難[酷評]する
All the while :その間ずっと[いつも]

So far this tack has proved popular among Hungarian and Polish voters, but it is risky. Budapest and Warsaw rely on the European Union for money and protection. And although neither Hungary nor Poland is interested in exiting the bloc, their actions could result in their marginalization within it and the degradation of their influence over Continental affairs. 

change tack try [take] a different tack:方針[話題]を変える
degradation :live in degradation 落ちぶれた生活をする.

By contrast, Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic will pursue more balanced foreign policies. While they will use Central European cooperation as a means of promoting their agendas and defending their interests, they also will continue to collaborate with Western Europe. The motive behind their strategy is simple: Though these countries are skeptical of further integration into the European Union, they are also closely linked to the German economy. In addition, Austria and Slovakia belong to the eurozone. 

今年はBrexitの交渉の山場の年だ。先程の述べたが、そもそもイギリスがEUを脱退することの意味が全く理解できない。多分、イギリス人の多くもそう思っているだろう。今まで、国民投票までしてきたので、そのメンツにこだわっていることしか考えられない。もう一つの問題はアイルランドとの国境の問題があり、EUを撤退すると人の出入りが自由にならないので、そういったことをどうするかということもある。イギリスはそれだけでなく、国の以外で、いろいろな課題がある。首相も変わるだろうし。ハンガリーとポーランドはEUに批判的だが、撤退はしない。Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republicは積極的にEUに関わっていくだろう。


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2018年の予測 (23)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (23)

2018年の予測 (23)

The Fate of the Eurozone
Italy will be the main source of uncertainty for the eurozone next year. The country will hold general elections by May, and most of its political parties have criticized the EU's deficit targets. Some are also critical of the eurozone. No matter who wins the elections, Rome's next administration will push to increase public spending and redesign the bloc's deficit goals. 

He is strongly [highly] critical of government actions.:彼は政府の活動に非常に批判的である

The difference between the parties, however, is in their tone. Some, like the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the right-wing Northern League, will be more willing than others to threaten Brussels with unilateral measures if the European Union does not meet their demands. These threats could include ignoring the bloc's fiscal targets or leaving the eurozone. 

catch something in someone's tone:(人)の声音に何か引っ掛かるものを感じる

Of course, Italy isn't likely to exit the currency area in 2018, but the rise of a Euroskeptic government in the eurozone's third-largest economy could still put the currency bloc at risk. The mere threat of flouting eurozone rules or quitting it outright could cause concern in financial markets, lead to higher borrowing costs for Southern European countries, and raise questions about the prospects of Italy's fragile banks. On top of these economic risks, a more Euroskeptic Italy would face the prospect of political and institutional isolation within the European Union. 

flouting :(故意に)〈法・規則など〉を無視する

Who Owns Italy's Sovereign Debt?
Who Owns Italy's Sovereign Debt?
Given the fragmentation within Italian politics, the approaching elections are likely to end in a hung parliament. Yet even if the parties fail to cobble together a coalition government, they could still appoint a prime minister by consensus. EU institutions and financial markets would welcome such a decision because it would temporarily avert a financial crisis. But it would come at a steep cost, creating a government that is constantly on the verge of collapse, weakening Italy's influence in international affairs and undermining Rome's ability to introduce sweeping economic reforms. If, on the other hand, lawmakers are unable to agree on a prime minister, Italy might hold another round of elections by the end of 2018, prolonging the uncertainty obscuring the country's future. 

hung :絶対多数政党のいない〈議会など〉
sweeping changes:大改革

Italy won't be the only eurozone member grappling with tough questions next year, either. Greece's bailout program ends in August, at which point Athens will try to reduce the sway foreign lenders have over its policymaking. At the same time, however, Greece will ask its creditors to alleviate its debt burden. Athens' financiers will refuse to write down parts of Greece's debt. But they may be more amenable to other measures, such as an extension of debt maturities, lower interest rates and a grace period for debt repayments, particularly if Greece agrees to keep introducing economic and institutional reforms. Athens may indeed be willing to make this commitment if the requested measures are less painful than those attached to its bailout. So although Greece will remain a source of concern for the eurozone in 2018, its membership in the currency area won't be in jeopardy. 

amenable:| əmíːnəb(ə)l | 快く応じて
jeopardy:(損失・危害・失敗などの)危険, 危機(risk)

Spain will have two problems of its own to deal with next year. The country's minority government will have difficulty pushing through legislation, suggesting that it will make only modest economic and institutional reforms in 2018. Moreover, Catalan secessionism will remain a concern for Madrid as friction persists between the central and regional governments. Though Catalonia won't secede from Spain next year, questions about the region's future will linger. 

legislation:法律の制定, 立法.
secessionism:脱退論, 離脱[分離]主義.
Doubts lingered.:疑念がなかなか晴れないでいた.



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2018年の予測 (22)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (22)

2018年の予測 (22)

Debating a Continent's Future
Talks about the shape of the European Union's structure and governance will take center stage on the Continent this year. Among the items on the bloc's agenda are ways to deepen financial integration, mechanisms to cope with future crises and strategies to increase security and defense cooperation. But finding a way forward won't be easy. While most EU members agree that political, institutional and economic reforms are needed, they do not agree on what those reforms should look like or how to go about implementing them. Over time, these issues will once again expose the enduring divisions between Europe's north and south and its east and west. 


At the center of the debate will be France and Germany. Though the two powerhouses are eager to preserve their alliance, they have different visions for the European Union. The French government, which campaigned on a promise to transform the bloc, has already introduced economic reforms at home. Now that it is on more equal footing with Berlin than it has been in many years, an emboldened Paris will aim to advance its interests at the Continental level. France hopes to create new structures that would allow for greater public spending and financial risk sharing within the bloc — a goal that many countries in Southern Europe, including Italy and Spain, share. These states also advocate the introduction of a common unemployment insurance for EU workers and a common deposit insurance for EU banks. 

on an equal footing with :と対等の関係で.
emboldened:〈人〉を勇気[元気]づける, 励ます
advocate:を提唱[主張, 擁護, 推奨]する

Germany isn't necessarily opposed to these ideas. It does, however, want to make sure that they are accompanied by more efficient oversight of the fiscal policies and financial sectors of member states. Berlin believes that countries often bend the bloc's fiscal rules and that the institutions tasked with enforcing regulations are too politicized. Several Northern European states, such as Austria and the Netherlands, share this view. 

A lower price does not necessarily mean a better buy.:安価な物が必ずしも買い得だとはいえない
oversight :監視

Still, France and Germany will have to wait to hash out a compromise until Berlin settles one of its own pressing political problems: the formation of a new government. The process of trying to build a governing coalition in Germany will consume the first few months of the year. Should the talks fail, early elections will ensue, delaying any European negotiations. 

hash out:〈問題・困難など〉をじっくり話して解決する.:
ensue:から[の結果として]すぐに起こる, 続く

Regardless of when the bartering between Germany and France begins, Berlin will protect its interests, and Paris will not get everything it wants. Instead, many French proposals will be watered down or adapted to meet German demands; others will be postponed. Room for cooperation certainly exists on some issues, such as boosting security and defense cooperation and harmonizing the tax systems of EU members. But other topics — especially those that involve financial transfers from Northern Europe to Southern Europe — will be more controversial. 


For the most part, France and Germany will be more interested in cooperation than confrontation. But it is unclear whether their willingness to work together will be enough to keep Europe united. 



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2018年の予測 (21)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (21)

2018年の予測 (21)

Instability in Central Asia 
The states of Central Asia, like so many of their fellow former Soviet republics, are in for a year of political transition. In 2018, Kazakhstan will probably follow in the footsteps of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, which underwent mostly smooth transfers of power this year. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev will move forward with plans for his succession, having ruled his country since before the Soviet Union's collapse. Rather than risk destabilizing Kazakhstan by suddenly surrendering his office, Nazarbayev will instead gradually devolve power to Parliament and to key members of the political elite, while overseeing the country's operations from behind the scenes. 

The captain surrendered his ship to the enemy.:船長は敵に船を明け渡した

But even if the transition goes off without a hitch, Kazakhstan and the other Central Asian states will face numerous threats to their stability in the next year. Low energy prices will compound the socio-economic pressures in the region, giving rise to protests. Uzbekistan will try to alleviate the strain by enacting economic reforms designed to attract foreign investment. It will also make efforts to improve its relations with neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in a bid to help ease border disputes and disagreements over resource allocation. 

without a hitch:何の障害もなく.
in a bid to win support:支持を得ようとして

Dealing with the growing threat of militancy will be a steeper task, given the region's internal security concerns and its proximity to Afghanistan and Syria. Governments across the region will resort to crackdowns and a more centralized power structure to mitigate the risk to their security. In addition, the region's two most influential external powers — Russia and China — will step up their security efforts in Central Asia in 2018. Moscow will focus on expanding its security presence there while Beijing assumes a more active role in counterterrorism efforts. 

militancy:(政治的・社会的変化等を目指して)力[圧力]を用いること; 好戦的なこと.


To the west of Eurasia lays Europe, a region predisposed to division. It is surrounded on nearly all sides by islands and peninsulas that make it difficult for Europe to cohere. The northern half of the continent, moreover, sits on a plain whose short, meandering rivers tend to empower countries without forcing them to work with others. The southern half is situated on more mountainous terrain that has historically impeded the creation of strong, unified economies. As a result, Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.

predisposed:(し)がちな, の傾向にある; 病気などになりやすい[がちな]
plain:平原, 平野
irreconcilable:〈考えなどが〉 相いれない

Section Highlights
The debate over how best to reform the European Union will take the spotlight in 2018, laying bare the regional rifts that divide the Continent.
Though France and Germany will be at the heart of this debate, they will prove more willing to cooperate than to confront each other. To that end, Paris will agree to water down or postpone many of its proposals for the bloc.
General elections in Italy will generate uncertainty about the eurozone's future. Though the country won't leave the currency area in the coming year, its next government will lobby for the authorization to boost public spending.
The United Kingdom will spend 2018 negotiating the terms of a trade agreement with the European Union. Though leaders probably will reach an arrangement for the transition period following the Brexit, a trade deal will be tougher to obtain.
The Continental bloc also will seek out free trade agreements with other countries, a strategy that will become a cornerstone of the bloc's foreign policy.

lay  bare:〈物〉をむき出しにする; 〈隠された物事・事実など〉を暴露する, 公にする.
water down:〈改革など〉を骨抜きにする



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2018年の予測 (20)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (20)

2018年の予測 (20)

Russian Economic Woes

Russian Economic Woes
The contests, slated for March and September 2018, respectively, will serve as a test for President Vladimir Putin and his detractors alike. Despite the buzz in Western media, however, Putin has no credible challenger for his office. His opponents represent an array of ideologies and personalities, and the government will seize on their differences to keep the opposition divided. Still, the ruling United Russia party understands that the swelling tide of protest movements, particularly among young Russians, requires a new strategy. The Kremlin, to that end, will roll out fresh messaging to target the youth vote and try to energize the electorate. And in the likely event that Putin wins another term in office, his administration will use his victory to restore faith in his legitimacy. The various opposition groups, in turn, will hold protests across Russia in the run-up to the vote and may even stage mass demonstrations around Putin's re-election. 

Woes:災い, 困難
a buzz of conversation:話し声によるざわつき.
a credible candidate:見込みのある候補者.
restore faith in:〜の信頼を取り戻す
in the run-up to the coming election:来たるべき選挙を目前に控えて.

Unrest won't be the only political challenge awaiting Putin in his next term. Infighting within the Kremlin will increase next year. While powerful elites such as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and oil tycoon Igor Sechin break with Putin to pursue their own agendas, the president will consolidate a coalition of his most loyal advisers to protect him and help him implement his policies. Putin won't fully crack down on the renegades, but he could undertake reshufflings in his administration to limit their power. The result will be an ever-more centralized, authoritarian presidency and a progressively more fragmented political system. 

Unrest:(社会・政治的な)不安, 不穏(な状況), 不満
Infighting:(組織内での)内輪もめ, 内部抗争, 内ゲバ.
break with:| breɪk | 決別する
undertake:〈事〉を始める, …に乗り出す, 着手する
fragmented: | fráɡməntɪd |ばらばらの, 分裂[崩壊]した.

Compared with the presidential election, the regional votes promise to be a tighter race for United Russia. Liberal opposition groups made gains in this year's regional elections. To slow their progress in the 2018 contest, the Kremlin will keep exploiting the divisions between them. Moscow may also crack down to try to curb protests across the country, while allowing some demonstrations to continue as a way to ease the political pressure building in Russia. 

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands 
Just beyond Russia's borders, the new year will bring its share of activity and instability. Ukraine, for example, will spend 2018 gearing up for its own presidential and parliamentary elections to follow in 2019 — its first since the snap votes that followed the Euromaidan uprising in 2014. Leading up to the 2019 elections, protests and government shake-ups are likely, and early legislative votes are possible. But the country won't deviate from its Western-oriented foreign policy as it weathers another year of war in the eastern part of its territory. 

snap vote:抜き打ち投票
legislative votes:議会により可決された投票
weathers:〈嵐・困難など〉を無事に乗り切る, うまく切り抜ける

Though the United States and Russia will proceed with negotiations over the conflict in Donbass — and may even make some headway on the issue of U.N. peacekeepers in the region — a broader resolution will remain elusive in 2018. As a result, Ukraine will continue to receive political, economic and security backing from the United States and its Western allies while it strives to further its economic, energy and security integration with Poland and the Baltic States. Russia, meanwhile, will ramp up its hybrid warfare campaign — including cyberattacks and assassinations — against the country and its supporters. 

make some headway in:〜の点でいくらか前進する
elusive:〈結果などが〉手に入れにくい, 達成しがたい.
ramp up:増やす

Southwest of Ukraine, elections could plunge Moldova into political turmoil next year. If the November vote goes in President Igor Dodon's favor — and to the detriment of the coalition that has long ruled the country — Moldova could start rolling back its efforts at integration with the European Union, at odds with the interests of pro-European groups. At the same time, it would probably also begin collaborating more closely with Russia on economic and security issues. Large protests before and after the elections are possible. 

to the detriment of :〈物・事・人〉を犠牲にして, に損害を与えて
roll back:後退させる
at odds with:〜と不和で、〜と争って、〜と意見が食い違って、〜との関係が悪化して

Next year will kick off a busy election season in the Caucasus, too. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will each hold presidential elections in 2018. More than the outcomes of these votes, though, the larger states nearby will influence foreign policy in the region. Azerbaijan and Georgia, for instance, will continue their efforts to forge closer energy, infrastructure and security ties with Turkey, while Armenia strengthens its military partnership with Russia and fortifies its economic links with Iran. Along the way, Tehran and Ankara will be careful not to challenge Moscow's strategic position in the Caucasus. Russia will remain the primary arbiter in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, working to prevent the dispute from escalating while at the same time supplying both sides with arms. 

arbiter:裁決[決定]者; (ある分野の)権威(者).仲裁者(arbitrator).
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict:ナゴルノカラバフ問題 アゼルバイジャン南部のナゴルノカラバフ自治州のアルメニアへの帰属問題。



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2018年の予測 (19)

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast (19)

2018年の予測 (19)

Echoes of the Cold War 
Though the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East will take up more of Russia's attention in the coming year, Moscow's relations with the West will be no less important. Tensions are liable to rise in 2018 between Russia and the United States. Washington has signaled that it may ramp up its pressure on Russia in the coming year through a variety of means, including a heavier sanctions regime and lethal arms sales to Ukraine. At the same time, the United States is building up its ballistic missile defenses in Europe and Asia. The campaign will further strain its bilateral arms treaties with Russia, which will be all the more difficult to renegotiate since Washington has threatened Moscow with punitive measures for allegedly violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. 

take up:〈申し出・挑戦・機会など〉を受け入れる

Having come to grips with life under existing sanctions, Moscow is determined to avoid incurring more sanctions from Washington in 2018. With that in mind, Russia will highlight areas in which it would be willing either to work with the United States or to negotiate concessions, such as the peace process in Syria, talks with North Korea or the conflict in Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, will prepare for its ties with Washington to further deteriorate by shoring up its relationships in Asia and in the Middle East and by pursuing military buildups in its borderlands, for instance by permanently deploying the Iskander missile system in its exclave of Kaliningrad. 

come to grips with:〈困難な状況など〉に真剣に取り組む.
determined:確たる意志を持った, 意志の強い
willing:する意志[気]がある, …するのをいとわない
exclave:本国から離れて, 他国に囲まれた領土

Adding to Russia's sanctions worries, the European Union will vote to maintain its punitive measures on the country throughout the next year. The bloc, however, won't follow suit if the United States slaps new sanctions on Moscow for political interference, despite the fact that 2018 will give Russia ample opportunity to meddle in Europe's affairs. As Italy prepares to hold general elections by May, the Kremlin will use its tried-and-true weapons of hybrid warfare — disinformation, propaganda and cyberattacks — in hopes of bringing a more sympathetic government to power in Rome. 

vote:選ぶ 提案する
follow suit:先例に倣う 真似をする
ample:ample opportunity [evidence] 十分な機会[証拠].
hybrid warfare :Warfare that blends conventional warfare and irregular warfare (potentially including cyberwarfare かつ information warfare) — the full spectrum of conflict.
sympathetic:賛成の 好意的な

An administration led by the Five Star Movement, after all, could perhaps break the unanimous vote required to extend the EU sanctions against Russia in the future. Influencing the elections' outcome won't be easy, as Moscow learned during the recent political races in France and Germany. Even so, Russia will keep up its efforts to sow discord among the bloc's member states and their electorates, even if it doesn't accomplish its goals for the Italian election. 


Russia's Internal Struggle
At home, Moscow will have a host of problems to contend with next year. Russia's worsening economic and financial straits will be one of its biggest challenges. After officially pulling out of recession this year, the country is settling into a prolonged period of stagnation. Banks are failing in near-record numbers, regional governments are defaulting on their debts, more and more businesses are going bankrupt, and a growing number of state firms need bailing out. These issues will stretch the Kremlin's finances, sap its sovereign wealth funds and force the government to borrow at least $18 billion more abroad. 

a host of other problems:多くのほかの問題
straits:(主に財政的な)難局, 苦境, 困難, 貧窮
stagnation:不況, 景気停滞.
sovereign wealth fund:主権国家資産ファンド、政府系(投資)ファンド◆政府が出資する投資ファンド

Finding funding could become even more difficult if the United States imposes sanctions to discourage Western markets from lending to Russia, though Moscow's growing economic ties in Asia and the Middle East will give it some alternative options. Either way, Russia's financial woes are too great for Moscow to shoulder. The Kremlin will have to let some businesses, banks and maybe even a regional government fail as it works to manage the fallout to avoid destabilizing the political system ahead of presidential and regional elections in 2018. 

financial woes:金銭的苦難.



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