Middle East and North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa is the world’s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran — Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers — and their competition for influence over the region’s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability. 

crossroads：十字路
encompasses：取り囲む
stuck：get stuck in traffic [a traffic jam] 交通渋滞に巻き込まれる

Section Highlights
Iran will lean heavily on Russia and Europe for support as the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel team up to undercut it.
Determined to prevent Iran from following in North Korea's nuclear footsteps, the United States will redouble its efforts to counter Iranian influence across the Middle East. Though Washington's actions will jeopardize the Iranian nuclear deal, Tehran won't abandon the accord.
To the west, the diverging interests of Iran, Turkey, Russia and Syria will impede any meaningful progress in settling the Syrian civil war.
Saudi Arabia will make notable strides in reforming its economy, but it will struggle to achieve the same success in altering social behavior and expectations within the kingdom. 

undercut：邪魔する
jeopardize：〈行為･状況など〉を危険にさらす, 危うくする
diverging：〈意見･関心などが〉分裂する, 分かれる; ≪…と≫ 異なる
impede：〈行為･進行など〉を妨害[じゃま]する, 遅らせる
notable：注目に値する, 目[興味]を引く〈人･物など〉

Middle East and North Africa
Against Iran, an Unlikely Alliance Rises
The United States will enter the new year intent on reining in Iran. The White House, Congress and the Pentagon share a firm resolve to undermine the formidable network of influence that Iran has built across the Middle East through its connections to an array of political and militant groups. North Korea's likely achievement of a nuclear deterrent in 2018 has only hardened Washington's determination to stop Tehran from heading down the same dangerous path. 

resolve：決意
formidable：手強い
array：勢ぞろいの[ずらりと並んだ]A〈物･人など〉; 多様なA

The United States isn't the only country eyeing Iran's activities with concern. Saudi Arabia — Iran's regional nemesis — has watched anxiously as the Shiite power's reach has slowly spread through its backyard over the past few years. Emboldened by Washington's renewed campaign against its longtime adversary, Riyadh will seize the chance to challenge Tehran for dominance in the Middle East. Recognizing an opportunity of its own, Israel will lend support to Saudi Arabia and the United States in hopes of cutting down their common enemy. In doing so, Israel will pull its relationship with Saudi Arabia, which has historically existed behind the scenes, out from the shadows. 

nemesis：手ごわい[かなわない]相手; 強敵.
Emboldened：を勇気[元気]づける, 励ます
cut down：打ちのめす

Negotiating the Fate of a Nuclear Deal
As tension rises between the United States and Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will hang by a thread, though it will probably survive the year. The deal was designed to halt Iran's nuclear weapons development program, and by most accounts — including that of the International Atomic Energy Agency — Tehran has complied with its terms. As long as Iran remains in compliance, it will enjoy sanctions relief as well as the ability to receive foreign investment and export oil. 

But the White House believes the deal is neither robust enough to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions nor comprehensive enough to stymie Tehran's ballistic missile program, sponsorship of terrorism or support for militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. U.S. President Donald Trump signaled his intention to confront Iran on the matter when he decertified the JCPOA in October 2017. To Tehran, the move merely confirmed its long-held suspicion that Washington is not a credible negotiator. 

robust：断固とした
stymie：邪魔する

That different branches of the U.S. government have different ideas about how to approach the JCPOA will only add to the mixed signals coming from Washington. For its part, Congress will take steps to slap new sanctions on Iran while taking care not to violate the deal. Trump, on the other hand, has carefully surrounded himself with policy hawks who are more willing to infringe upon the agreement, regardless of whether Iran's activities are related to its nuclear program, to try to force it back to the negotiating table. Their hard-line stance toward Iran will accelerate the deterioration of Washington's relationship with Tehran. And by stripping away the security guarantees implicit in the agreement, the United States will set itself on a collision course with Iran throughout the Middle East. 

branches：分岐
infringe：【権利･自由などを】制限する, 侵害する
surround oneself with ：人･物〉を常に自分の周りに置く

The White House's willingness to threaten the deal will revive Tehran's old paranoia as it guards against what it believes to be a concerted effort by the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel to destabilize the Islamic Republic. Iran will not be the first to walk away from the nuclear deal, for fear of its economy falling into disrepair once more amid renewed sanctions. But threats to the JCPOA and harsher economic measures emanating from the United States will stir up hard-liners in Iran who don't value dialogue with the West as much as moderates like Iranian President Hassan Rouhani do. These factions will be able to secure more defense funding and popular support. However, Iranians across the political spectrum will be eager to keep the nuclear deal intact so that the country can continue to export oil and court investment from Europe, China and Russia. 

threaten：おびやかす
paranoia：被害[誇大]妄想, 疑心暗鬼.
emanating：〈声･考え･提案などが〉発する
stir：〈感情〉をかき立てる(up)
spectrum：both ends of the political spectrum (右翼･左翼の)政治理念の両極端.
intact：損なわれていない

Iran will turn to its allies in Europe and Russia to help protect the agreement's framework. After all, the sanctions that the JCPOA lifted were leveled against European companies, not Iran. As a result, most EU members have defended the deal as a means of allowing their economic transactions with Iran to continue while curbing Tehran's nuclear program. The Continent will thus appeal to the United States to uphold the agreement. Russia will join Europe in its support for the JCPOA, as the closer ties forged by two years of cooperation between it and Iran in the Syrian civil war begin to bear fruit for Tehran off the battlefield. 

leveled：Severe criticisms were leveled at the government. 厳しい批判が政府に向けられた.

中東と北アフリカはまさしく、世界が今、最も注目する地域でトルコ、イラン、サウジ、エジプト、それとイスラエルが混然とこの地域で、紛糾している。そこにロシアがしっかり噛み込んでいて、アメリカもイランに対して、強行な態度に出ている。特に、イランとの核抑止力の協定ではミサイル開発とかヒズボラへの支援があるので、この協定に対してアメリカは否定的だが、ヨーロッパもロシアもこの協定が破棄され、再び、イランを制裁することには反対だ。イランも自国の経済に対する影響を考えると、このままでいたい。

土曜日。海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast　(11)

2018年の予測 (11)

The Economics of Mercosur


Venezuela Feels the Squeeze From Washington
Elsewhere in the region, a former Mercosur member — Venezuela — will continue its rapid decline. The country's economic decay will accelerate over the next year as the government defaults on foreign debt payments, high inflation spirals into hyperinflation and shortages of food and medical supplies worsen. At the same time, oil production, a crucial source of revenue to sustain Venezuela's diminishing food imports, will steadily fall. The economic crisis will persist for years. 

Squeeze：(経済的)苦境; ≪…に対する≫ 圧迫, 引き締め
decay： (精神･健康･富･勢いなどの)衰退, 衰え; 荒廃.

Though the Trump administration will have bigger priorities on its agenda in 2018, such as NAFTA negotiations, the United States nonetheless will intervene to try to shift Venezuela away from one-party rule. Washington and its allies in Latin America will pressure the Venezuelan government to hold competitive elections and to recognize the opposition-controlled legislature. Caracas, in turn, will consider negotiating with the U.S. government and the domestic opposition. 

legislature：〖通例the 〜; 集合的に〗立法府[部], 議会.

But the Venezuelan administration will join the talks only to stave off more sanctions from Washington; it's not interested in holding elections it could lose in 2018, at least not without a U.S. assurance of amnesty for its leaders. The Venezuelan leadership's drive for self-preservation will make any attempt at reconciliation between the government and the opposition difficult. Furthermore, free elections in which the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela could lose power would go against the interests of one of Venezuela's major stakeholders, the Cuban government. And even if other countries, such as Mexico, try to reduce Cuba's energy dependence on Venezuela, the beneficiaries of the political and military patronage networks embedded in Venezuela's state institutions will try to block attempts to institute free elections for fear of jeopardizing their privileges. 

stave off：を(一定期間)阻止する, 防ぐ, かわす
amnesty ：【政治犯などに対する】恩赦; 大[特]赦(pardon) ≪for≫ .
assurance：(心配･疑念を取り除くための) ≪…についての/…という≫ 保証, 確約
patronage：(組織･事業･芸術などの)後援, (財政)支援.
beneficiaries：利益を得る人. 受益者

As the year unfolds and Venezuela's economy unravels, the risk of political unrest, whether in the form of protests or an attempted coup by members of the security forces, will increase. Renewed dissent alone will not pose an existential threat to the Venezuelan government unless large numbers of police or military units turn against the state. To keep the military on its side, President Nicolas Maduro's administration will allow the armed forces greater control of state oil and gas company Petroleos de Venezuela. A new wave of demonstrations, moreover, would struggle to gain momentum because more and more Venezuelans are opting to leave the country in search of a better life rather than staying and protesting. If factions of the military staged a coup, however, they would jeopardize the current government and may even prevail with enough support. 

unravels：〈もつれた糸･編み物など〉をほどく, 解く, ほぐす.
As the year unfolds：年月が経つにつれて

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast　(10)

2018年の予測 (10)

Trade Between NAFTA Members



Trump will base his NAFTA decision on the advice of his Cabinet and on his own analysis of the potential risks and benefits of pulling out of the deal. Appeals from concerned Republican legislators and private-sector lobbyists could soften the administration's negotiating stance. A withdrawal, after all, would probably cause widespread disruptions in an array of important sectors in the U.S. economy. The risk of an electoral backlash in the states that most depend on NAFTA — and the economic damage that withdrawing from the agreement would wreak — could sway Trump to stay in the talks. 

Appeals：呼びかけ
concerned：心配する, 懸念する
wreak：〈損害など〉をもたらす

But the president is mercurial enough, and his core political base opposes NAFTA staunchly enough, that he could still decide to unilaterally back the United States out of the deal. In that event, NAFTA's proponents would try to use Congress and the federal court system to halt the withdrawal. The U.S. Congress could try to prevent an attempt to pull out of the deal by pressing, for instance, for a joint resolution to mandate congressional approval of such a move. 

mercurial ：〈気分が〉変わりやすい.
staunchly：熱烈な, 頑強な.
back out of：【契約･約束などを】放棄する, 【事業などから】手を引く 
proponents：支持者

Legal challenges would also mount against an effort to withdraw from the trade area since leaving NAFTA would cause uncertainty for so many governments and businesses. The deal's demise could result in the loss of 200,000 jobs, mainly in Southern and Midwestern states — a grim prospect for the Republican Party, which will depend on support in those regions in the midterm congressional elections in late 2018. 

The likelihood of a unilateral attempt to pull out of NAFTA will rise, however, the longer the United States, Canada and Mexico negotiate without arriving at a consensus on the deal's future. With the U.S. midterm elections and the Mexican presidential race looming on the horizon, Trump will be eager to wrap up negotiations before the votes. Otherwise, the president may wind up dealing with a new Congress or a different administration in Mexico, either of which could scuttle a revised free trade agreement. 

the longer：長引くほど
scuttle：〈計画など〉を台なしにする, 水の泡にする.

Beyond NAFTA, the approaching midterms could interfere with other parts of the U.S. administration's agenda in 2018. As Congress wraps up major legislative projects such as tax reform and gears up for campaign season, the general unity that prevailed in the Republican Party throughout this year will come under strain. Some Republican lawmakers, especially those whose seats are less secure, will begin distancing themselves from the administration's more politically risky policy proposals, and legislative endeavors that require bipartisan support — such as Trump's infrastructure funding plan — will struggle to gain traction. Similarly, controversial proposals, such as a comprehensive attempt to revise immigration laws, could stall out in Congress. 

interfere：を妨げる, 損なう, 害する
general unity：全面的な結束
traction：(政策･候補者などへの)支持.
stall：〈エンジン･車〉を止める; 〈飛行機〉を失速させる.

As Washington pushes on toward protectionism, NAFTA's other members will adjust course. Mexico and Canada alike will try to court new trade partners as NAFTA's future hangs in the balance. Canada, for example, will explore a trade deal with the Common Market of the South (better known by its Spanish acronym, Mercosur) while working to advance talks with Asian countries including India, Japan, China and Singapore. (Regardless of what happens to NAFTA, however, the United States will remain Canada's main trade partner.) 

Votes Against the Status Quo
In Mexico, the Trump administration's quest to renegotiate NAFTA will pave the way for a populist to contest the presidency in 2018. The country's endemic poverty, glaring wealth inequality and systemic corruption have for decades made it a fertile ground for populism. Though populist rhetoric fell out of fashion in recent years because it worried investors, the Mexican political landscape has slowly returned to form. Today, four major political parties are vying for control of the country. 

fell out of fashion：流行から外れる
vying：競う, 張り合う(compete)

Voters have soured on President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration over the past two years after a slew of corruption scandals and the government's perceived complacency in the face of Trump's threats to alter NAFTA. As the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party lost ground with the Mexican electorate, populist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador rose as a credible contender for the presidency. 

soured：嫌う, いやになる ≪on≫ .
slew ： a slew of books たくさんの本.
perceived：気づく, 感づく
complacency：自己満足, 独り善がり.

Lopez Obrador, who has been consistently ahead in opinion polls, certainly appears to have a chance to win the July election. But if he were to take office, his administration — like those of his recent predecessors — would lack the power to effect radical policy changes. Lopez Obrador would depend on cooperation from Mexico's highly divided Congress to implement any policy agenda and would have to rely largely on presidential decrees to implement less popular initiatives, such as a review of existing energy contracts. 

decree：(統治者･政府･教会の) ≪…という≫ 法令, 命令, 布告 

Should he make good on the review, moreover, he would probably alarm investors and jeopardize individual agreements with foreign energy companies, even though his administration couldn't roll back all of Mexico's energy reforms. And regardless of which candidate clinches the presidency, cooperation with the United States on counternarcotics will be as important as ever. 

jeopardize ：〈行為･状況など〉を危険にさらす, 危うくする
roll back：〈丸い･車輪付きの物〉を転がして返す.
clinches：(努力して)…を成し遂げる, …に決着を付ける
counternarcotics：麻薬対策

Colombia, meanwhile, is undergoing a similar political shift as a presidential vote hangs on the horizon in 2018. Widespread dissatisfaction over prolonged economic stagnation, revelations of corruption and the government's controversial peace negotiations with militants have weakened the ruling Social Party of National Unity. Several other political groups have broken their alliances with the ruling party to run their own presidential candidates, paving the way for a tight race. The first round of elections, scheduled for May, promises to be highly competitive; the vote will likely be split among four or five major contenders. 

revelations：(秘密などの)暴露, 摘発, すっぱ抜き

Whichever party prevails in the election, the next Colombian president probably won't derail the previous administration's peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. The legislature has already laid the groundwork for the agreement's final approval, which would come under threat in 2018 only if the right-leaning Democratic Center party follows through on a referendum to rescind the legislation underpinning the deal. A new government could, on the other hand, determine whether the government in Bogota continues peace talks with another militant group, the National Liberation Army, or enters a new negotiation to demobilize certain criminal groups. 

rescind：〈法律･合意など〉を無効にする, 廃止する, 撤回する.
underpinning：支える
demobilize：〈軍隊が〉動員を解かれる; 

In Brazil, too, a presidential election next year will showcase the country's discontent with established political elites. Years of recession and sluggish economic growth, which has only recently picked up, and a spate of corruption scandals have crippled some of the strongest political parties, including the Workers' Party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party and the Brazilian Social Democracy Party. Their loss has been a boon for outsider politicians such as Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing lawmaker. 

showcase：を展示[陳列]する
discontent：不満, 不平(dissatisfaction)
picked up：〈状況･商売･生活･天気などが〉好転する, 上向く(improve)
spate：多数の
boon：有益な[役に立つ]物, 恩恵, 利益

Yet the next Brazilian administration is bound to be a weak one whose ability to govern will depend on how well it can appease the various political parties in Congress. The next year may also test the country's political stability. In 2018, a federal court will issue a final ruling on former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's conviction this year on corruption charges. Da Silva is a leading contender for the presidency, and his supporters could take to the streets if the court upholds his conviction and bars him from running for a third term in office in October. 

bound：きっと…する, …するはずだ(certain, sure)
weak：弱体化した
appease：〈相手〉に譲歩する.

South America's Economies Come Together
Until then, Brazil's outgoing administration will try to pass measures to reform the pension system and to privatize state assets before its time in office runs out. Argentina, likewise, will push to enact tax reform as well as new labor laws intended to favor investors. Buenos Aires' reforms are far from certain, though, since Argentina's historically populist Peronist parties hold a large enough majority in the Senate to stall them. 

Despite the odds against its reforms, Argentina, along with Brazil and the rest of Mercosur's members, will try to maintain its momentum in trade negotiations with partners outside the bloc as they enter 2018. The traditionally protectionist Mercosur has a narrow window of opportunity to expand its trade horizons before the pro-business administrations in Brazil and Argentina leave office in 2018 and 2019. 

To that end, the bloc's members will set out to negotiate as many trade agreements as possible over the next year, including deals with the European Union, Mexico, Canada and the European Free Trade Association. The talks won't always yield finished agreements, but the further policymakers get in the negotiations, the more likely that incoming administrations in Mercosur countries will be to move forward with them. 

トランプがNAFTAを廃止しようとしても、選挙を意識している議会が賛同しないだろう。NAFTAを廃止すると２０万人の職が失われる。司法も賛同はしないだろう。メキシコもカナダも貿易相手国の見直しをするだろう。ただ、カナダはNAFATには関係なく、アメリカとの貿易は相変わらず最大である。

Enrique Pena Nietoは汚職の疑惑とNAFTAの煮え切らない彼の態度に人気を落としていて、今年の次の選挙ではLopez Obradorが勝つだろうが、彼は多数の支持を得ているのではないので、大きなことは出来ない。コロンビアは不景気と汚職とで今ひとつ元気が無いのとRevolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARCとの件でも武装解除がまだきちんと出来ていない。ブラジルは来年が選挙だが、いま汚職問題で主要な政党が問題になっている。Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva前大統領が有罪になるとその支持者のデモが激しくなるだろう。彼は無罪であれば立候補する。メルコスールは保守的なので、ブラジルもアルゼンチンも貿易相手国の拡大に努力するだろう。

木曜日。今日は森さんとの会食がる。ではまた明日。

ところでこのサイトはあと一ヶ月で閉鎖します。このブログを購読される方はinfo@swingbyまで連絡ください。メールで送信させていただきます。
This site will be closed one month later. If you continue to read this blog please send me the mail address to info@swingby.jp.
 

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast　(9)

2018年の予測 (9)


Americas
The Americas stretch from the Arctic Circle in Canada to the southern tip of Chile. This geographically, culturally and politically diverse region is home to the United States, a nation whose geography helped it become the foremost economic and military power in the world — an ascendance aided in part by bringing Mexico and Canada into its sphere of influence. Farther south, the nations of South America are like islands, separated by vast spaces of impenetrable mountains, rivers and jungles. Try though these countries may to integrate more closely, deeper ties such as those that characters North America will prove elusive.

ascendance：ascendancy 支配的［優勢］な立場、権勢
impenetrable：〈場所などが〉通り抜けられない impenetrable darkness 見通せない暗さ.
elusive：〈結果などが〉手に入れにくい, 達成しがたい.

Section Highlights
In 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration will try to implement more of the protectionist trade agenda it unveiled in 2017. Though the possibility remains that the United States could unilaterally withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement, the deal's supporters would turn to Congress and the federal courts in that event to prevent NAFTA's demise.
Dissatisfaction with the political status quo will influence presidential races in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia.

demise：終了

Brazil and Argentina, South America's two biggest economies, will take advantage of their pro-trade governments' remaining time in office to forge deeper trade ties with other economic blocs and countries. As the United States and its Latin American allies press for free elections in Venezuela under the threat of further sanctions, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's administration will resist any efforts to erode its authority while trying to mitigate the fallout from the country's rapid economic decline.

Pushing On With Protectionism
As U.S. President Donald Trump's administration enters its second year, it will continue to contend with the limits of presidential power to shape foreign trade, security relationships and domestic legislation. Trump wasn't as tethered to the Republican Party's policy desires or as subject to its influence as were many of his competitors for the party nomination. Having emerged as a candidate from outside the party's established political network, he had fewer direct connections to it. 

contend：We have to contend with violent crime. 我々は凶悪犯罪に対処していかねばならない
tethered：〈動物など〉をつなぐ

This relative freedom has given the president more leeway to entertain (and in some cases, enact) ideologically motivated policy changes that his predecessors found politically untenable, including a more protectionist trade agenda and more stringent immigration restrictions. Nevertheless, Trump doesn't rule in a vacuum, and many of the factors that will make or break his ability to keep campaign promises are beyond his control. The presidency will go through yet another year trying to align its policy wishes with reality. 

motivated：highly, motivated students やる気に満ちた生徒たち.
untenable：〈議論･考えなどが〉(批判などに対して)擁護[支持]できない
stringent：〈規則･規準などが〉厳しい, 〈法律･規制などが〉厳格な.
align：を一直線にそろえる ≪with≫ .

Throughout 2018, the Trump administration will try to implement specific aspects of its protectionist trade agenda. Washington, for instance, will proceed with its investigation of alleged Chinese intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers. The inquiry may lead the U.S. government to take retaliatory action against Beijing inside as well as outside the World Trade Organization trade regime. In addition, the White House may make a decision in the coming year about whether it will try to renegotiate the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), from which Trump has threatened to pull the United States. 

KORUS won't be the only trade agreement up for discussion, either. Early in 2018, the administration will decide whether to continue its talks with Mexico and Canada to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) or to withdraw from the deal. The negotiations reached an impasse this year because Canadian and Mexican officials disapprove of U.S. proposals to raise national content requirements, tighten rules of origin and eliminate investor-state dispute-settlement mechanisms. Though the three sides could still overcome their differences, the odds that they will reach an agreement early in 2018 are looking slim. 

impasse：break the political impasse 政治的難局を打開する
content：the entire contents of the dictionary その辞書のすべての内容.
slim：a slim chance [hope] of winning the game 試合に勝つわずかな可能性[希望].

南北アメリカはアメリカがもっとも関与してきた地域だが、アメリカはうまくまとめられなかったが、彼らはより結束しようとしている。トランプの保守主義は今年もNAFTAを変えようとしているが、止めるとなると、アメリカにも大きな支障が起こるだろう。ブラジルとアルゼンチンは積極的な自由貿易を展開する。ベネズエラのマデューロは依然としてしぶとく残るだろう。

トランプは中国に対しては知財とか情報移転に対して中国への制裁を引き続き検討し、韓国との貿易協定は交渉次第ではやめてしまうかもしれない。NAFTAも揉めるだろうが、簡単にやめることはでいない。ただ、三者の合意は年初には解決しない。

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast　(8)

2018年の予測 (8)



Territorial Claims in the South China Sea
China also succeeded in preserving its detente with the Philippines as the two countries took strides toward joint energy exploration and coast guard drills. The Philippines, too, aims to protect its sovereignty over its maritime territory. But Manila's conciliatory approach toward China has freed much-needed capacity to deal with urgent issues at home. Though Philippine forces managed to reclaim Marawi City from the Islamic State this year, political and security problems will continue to plague the country in 2018. 

detente：(国家間の)緊張緩和
conciliatory：融和的な
reclaim：取り戻す
plague：を困らせる

The administration of President Rodrigo Duterte will turn its attention to revising the constitution, passing legislation to support its peace deals with Moro rebels, securing the restive region of Mindanao and reining in communist militants. With so many concerns to address at home, the Philipines cannot afford to take a tougher stance against China. And though the Philippines' security relationship with the United States will persist, it will not endanger the country's budding cooperation with China. 

restive：反抗的な
budding：始まったばかりの

China's ties with the other major claimant in the South China Sea — Vietnam — are not so friendly. Over the past year, the two countries canceled military meetings, Beijing pressured Hanoi to halt energy exploration activities in the sea, and a U.S. aircraft carrier visited Vietnam for the first time since the end of the Vietnam War. Though national debt and economic reforms will top Hanoi's agenda in 2018, Vietnam is more stable than the Philippines and will have more space to try to counterbalance China. Just as it did in 2017, Vietnam will try to draw other countries such as Japan, India, Russia and the United States into the South China Sea. 

claimant：(権利･遺産などの)要求[請求]者
counterbalance：対抗勢力となる

ASEAN will not have the same clarity in its dealings with China. Instead the bloc will face numerous obstacles as it tries to navigate the Chinese-U.S. rivalry in the region, terrorist threats and economic uncertainty. This year, disunity rose within the bloc as some of its members, including the Philippines, struck out on their own to form policies toward China. Such discord will only worsen in 2018 as member states cope with problems at home. For instance, the popularity of the governments in Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia and perhaps Thailand will be put to the test in national or local elections next year. 

clarity：(思想･判断･文体などの)明確さ, 明快さ

A Japanese Awakening 
As a crisis of nuclear proportions brews on the Korean Peninsula, it will spur Japan ever onward in normalizing its military by bolstering its missile defenses and exercising the enhanced powers outlined in security legislation passed in 2015. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will also use the popular mandate it received after it swept elections in late 2017 to forge ahead with its agenda for constitutional reform. However, the party likely won't meet the ambitious timetable that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe laid out in mid-2017 as it works to avoid a dip in public opinion. 

proportions：深刻さ　reach epidemic proportions 異常に広まる, 蔓延（まんえん）する
forge：(急速に)ピッチを上げる[上げて進む](ahead)
dip：【価格･収入･利益･気温などの】(一時的な)低下, 下落, 減少, 落ち込み

Moreover, Abe's administration will spend next year trying to contain corruption scandals and internal jockeying ahead of a transition in party leadership in late 2018. The commotion could sap legislative resources and undermine the prime minister's popularity. Still, Japan will enter into the new year with seven consecutive quarters of economic growth under its belt, thanks in large part to rising global demand and Tokyo's stimulus measures. This feat could finance further economic reforms, particularly those that center on wages, income taxes and labor laws.

jockeying：地位などをめぐる駆け引き, 画策
commotion：騒動, 騒ぎ, 動揺, 激動, 混乱
sap：〈体力･勇気など〉を(徐々に)奪う
under its belt：身について; 〈作品などが〉完成[成功]して; 手中にして. 〈食物などが〉腹におさまって.
feat： (熟練･体力を要する)妙技, 離れ業; 偉業　功績
center ：〈関心･事柄･行為などが〉 ≪…に≫ 集中する ≪on, upon≫ 

As the North Korean crisis and a mutual interest in countering the West pull China and Russia closer together, Japan will seek better ties with both. On some level, Tokyo may work with Beijing on its Belt and Road Initiative. Meanwhile, Japan will move forward with economic cooperation with Russia in the Kuril Islands in pursuit of a peace treaty to officially end their World War II-era hostilities and resolve territorial disputes. All the while, Tokyo will work with Washington to try to pressure Pyongyang to change its behavior. 

南シナ海においてはフィリピンは国内のテロ対策で、中国とはトラブルを起こしたくない。ベトナムは中国に対して反抗的だ。アメリカ、オーストラリア、インド、日本を巻き込んで対応したい。ASEANは意見がバラバラで、まとまっていない。中米の対立、テロ、不安定な経済の渦中にあって、その対応がまちまちだ。その中にあって、日本が軍事を強化し、アジアの均衡に関わって来そうだが、まだ憲法改正までには至らない。景気が良いので、余裕を持っている。中ソが接近するが、日本もそれぞれの国に対して融和していく。

火曜日。ではまた明日。

Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMT
2018 Annual Forecast　(7)

2018年の予測 (7)

The New Silk Road 
As the United States has tried to scale down its commitments abroad, China has seized the chance to expand its own, in part because its ever-growing interests overseas demand a coherent global strategy. Beijing's sprawling Belt and Road Initiative is one means of extending its influence. Despite China's tendency in 2017 to regulate investments that it believes to be irrational — those in the entertainment, real estate and cultural sectors, to name a few — it will steadily funnel money into the Belt and Road Initiative. The government's strategy of helping Chinese firms climb the value chain will facilitate these financial flows. However, its attempts to ease domestic debt burdens may also undermine corporate finances, potentially cutting off funds to projects whose plans or locations carry added risk. 

coherent：首尾一貫した
sprawling：むやみ[不規則]に広がった.
irrational：感情･行為･考えが〉不合理な, 道理を逸した　無分別な
undermine：むしばむ



China's Belt and Road Initiative
The Belt and Road Initiative is closely intertwined with China's attempt to increase its global outreach as the international system evolves. In some ways, that evolution may help Beijing achieve its goals. Mounting U.S. pressure has brought Russia's interests into closer alignment with China's — in part because both countries share the desire to insulate themselves from U.S. sanctions. Their burgeoning partnership could increase China's access to Central Asia and the Middle East. In the meantime, as the United States adjusts its strategy in Afghanistan, putting further strain on its relationship with Pakistan, China may have an opportunity to cement politically sensitive projects along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as Islamabad turns to Beijing for closer security cooperation. 

evolves：(徐々に)発達する, 発展する
insulate：隔離する
burgeoning：〈人口･町などが〉急増する, 急成長の.

China's endeavors will not always go smoothly, though. When the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit convenes in China in June, Beijing will try to expand the bloc's agenda on economic and infrastructure initiatives. But the move will likely encounter resistance from India, which has opposed the Belt and Road Initiative as it has watched China's growing assertiveness in the region with trepidation. In fact, Beijing's ambitions will spur New Delhi to team up with China's regional rivals, including Japan, to advance competing infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia and Africa and to increase security cooperation. At the same time, political instability, regional groups, local insurgencies, funding problems and suspicions of China's motives will continue to endanger Beijing's connectivity schemes in Central and South Asia. 

endeavors：努力
trepidation：恐怖, おののき; ろうばい.
endanger：危険にさらす



Infrastructure in Southeast Asia
Closer to home, China will keep relying on a combination of diplomatic pressure and military coercion to curb Taiwan's outreach to other countries, including the United States and its allies. Meanwhile, to the west, Beijing may have a rare opportunity to pursue a dialogue with Tibet's government in exile as the Dalai Lama ages. The path toward negotiation is all but certain, but talks would enable Beijing to limit New Delhi's ability to leverage the Tibet issue as the Sino-Indian rivalry and border dispute intensify. 

all but：殆ど

China's Neighbors Strike a Precarious Balance
Though North Korea's recent activities have drawn the United States' attention to the Asia-Pacific, Washington's engagement in the region will diminish in the long run. China's presence, however, will grow. As a result, countries in the region will try to both work with and counter Beijing, a balance that will come to define the Asia-Pacific in the years ahead. 

Precarious：不安定な
counter　：とは逆に

This year, friction between Beijing and Seoul worsened over the deployment of U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense missile systems to South Korea, eventually triggering the imposition of economic countermeasures by China. Tension likewise marred China's relationship with Japan as the two sparred over the East China Sea throughout 2017. But toward the end of the year, Beijing's ties with its rivals warmed: China and South Korea normalized relations, while Japan hinted that it might participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative. 

imposition：課す[負わせる]こと
countermeasures：対抗[対応]手段, 対策
marred：を損なう, 台なしにする, 傷つける(spoil)
sparred ：〘ボクシング〙 ≪…と≫ スパーリングする

Next year may even bring a trilateral summit for the three neighbors — a gathering that has been suspended since 2015 because of their quarrels. This hardly means their contest for regional dominance will subside. There is, however, room for the North Korean threat, mutual economic interests and the United States' drift away from its current alliances to erode their enmity for one another. 

subside：〈声･音･激情･悪天候などが〉徐々に静まる; ≪…に≫ 落ち着く
enmity：敵意

The easing of tension in Northeast Asia won't preclude the formation of coalitions intended to contain China. Chief among them is the U.S.-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which includes Japan, India and Australia. As new formats evolve, the powers interested in curbing China's reach will try to settle their internal differences as their security cooperation deepens. Australia will serve as a key swing state because of its strong trade relationship with China and domestic controversy stemming from those ties. 

preclude：妨げる
Chief：主要な

By contrast, Japan and India will form a sturdy front against China. By no means does the bloc portend a formal security alliance — or even alignment — among members, but its loose agenda could appeal to countries with a mutual interest in containing Beijing, such as Singapore and Vietnam. China, for its part, will approach individual countries in an attempt to dilute the coalition coalescing against it. 

sturdy：不屈の, しっかりとした, 断固とした
portend：〈よくない状態･事態〉の前触れとなる; …を予告する.
dilute：弱める
coalescing：〈別々の物･考えなどが〉結合[合体]する

China will use a similar strategy to take advantage of the United States' distraction with North Korea. Beijing will redouble its efforts to reach out to claimants in the South China Sea, offering compromises that reflect its pre-eminent position in the disputed waterway. This year, China achieved several diplomatic victories with this tactic, including progress on drafting a nonbinding code of conduct in the South China Sea with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). 

distraction：気を散らす[紛らす]物[こと]
redouble：いっそう努力する.
claimants：(権利･遺産などの)要求[請求]者
pre-eminent：ずば抜けて優れた, 卓越した
nonbinding：拘束力のない

Beijing will use next year's negotiations over the deal to showcase its success — and to discourage interference by external powers. Though U.S. operations in the contested waters will continue unabated, China will guard against the United States' attempts to encourage countries like Australia, Japan and India to increase their participation and responsibilities in the region. 

unabated：〈勢力･量などが〉衰えない.

中国は一帯一路の戦略を展開していく中で、韓国を抱き込み、日本も参加を促していく。中央アジアではロシアとも協調していく。一方アメリカはこのアジアでのビジネスから後退していくので、中国はそれに取って代わるチャンスと思っている。ただ、インドは領土問題もあり、中国とは相容れない。アメリカはアジアの安全保障に関してはオーストラリア、インド、日本の4カ国で、中国を囲い込んでいく。オーストラリアは中国との関係が良いので、少し、微妙だ。

月曜日。小野さんとの会食パーティがある。ではまた明日。