2015年04月23日

Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (8)

Among the economic risks, fiscal crises and unemployment are perceived as close to equally impactful and likely as in last year’s report, yet other risk categories take centre stage this year (see Figure 1.4). While the world has made progress in addressing and preventing financial crises, and small improvements in fiscal issues and unemployment have been achieved, the danger of complacency compared to other risks exists: experts remain concerned about significant residual risks, which may have been overshadowed by other risks in the survey.

impactful:影響力の強い
complacency:現状に満足しきっていること/自己満足/油断
residual:未解決の
overshadowed:目立たなくされる

The prominence of risks dominating recent headlines in our assessments raises questions about the role of the “availability heuristic” – risks that have manifested themselves recently may be uppermost in people’s minds, even if their recent occurrence does not necessarily increase their impact or likelihood over a 10-year time horizon. To reveal more about the psychology behind the responses, the survey this year asked respondents to nominate risks of highest concern over two time horizons: 10 years, as usual, and 18 months. The results are shown in Figure 1.1. In the short term, respondents are more concerned about global risks related to recent events and human action, including interstate conflict, state collapse, failure of national governance and large-scale terrorist attacks. The list for the longer term is dominated by risks related to physical and environmental trends that have been less prominent in recent headlines, such as water crises, failure of climate-change adaptation and food crises.

prominence:目立つこと
availability heuristic:利用可能性ヒューリスティック 物事を判断するときに用いられる手法。「取り出しやすい」記憶情報を、優先的に頼って判断してしまうこと。記憶に残っているものほど、頻度や確立を高く見積もる傾向。
manifested themselves:明示される
uppermost:真っ先に 

Interestingly, the risk of social instability scores high in both the short and long term. This trend towards social fragility is one of five threads that stand out from the 2015 survey – along with growing concern about geopolitics, the possible overshadowing of economic risks by other more imminent risks, concern about unaddressed environmental risks, and persisting vulnerabilities in cyberspace – which are explored in more depth below.

stand out:突出する
thread:脈絡/筋
vulnerabilities:脆さ
Box 1.1: The evolution of the risks of highest impact/likelihood

As the report’s 10th anniversary approaches, the evolution of the perceived top five global risks can be viewed in terms of impact and likelihood as documented in the Global Risks reports from 2007 to 2015. As Table 1.1.1 shows, economic risks largely dominated from 2007 to 2014, with the risk of an asset-price collapse heading the list in the run-up to the financial crisis, giving way to concerns about the more immediate but slow-burning consequences of constrained fiscal finances, a major systemic financial failure in the immediate post-crisis years, and income disparity. This year features a radical departure from the past decade; for the first time in the report’s history, economic risks feature only marginally in the top five. In the 25th year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, geopolitical risks are back on the agenda. The dispute over Crimea in March 2014 serves as a forceful reminder of the consequences of interstate conflicts with regional consequences that seemed long forgotten and unfathomable, as further explored in this report. Similarly, together with other events in 2014, such as the prominent rise of the Islamic State, it has brought state collapse and the failure of national governance back into public consciousness. At the same time, health-related risks, such as pandemics – last considered impactful in 2008 – have made it back into the unglamorous top, following the unprecedented spread of Ebola.

run-up:駆け上ること
give way to:取って代わる
constrained:制約された
systemic:システミックリスクは、ある所で発生した決済不能が次々と広がって世の中に混乱を及ぼす可能性のこと(リスク)をいう。具体的には、一つの金融機関の支払不能や決済不履行等や、特定のマーケット(市場)または決済システム等の機能不全が、他の金融機関、他の市場、または金融システム全体に波及することである。
income disparity:所得格差
marginally:かろうじて
forceful:強力な
unfathomable:深さが測れない
prominent:目立った
public consciousness:人々の意識
unglamorous:地味な

On a higher level, Table 1.1.1 also indicates a shift over past years away from economic risks in general to environmental risks – ranging from climate change to water crises. While this highlights a recognition of the importance of these slow-burning issues, strikingly little progress has been made to address them in light of their far-reaching and detrimental consequences for this and future generations.

far-reaching:広範囲に及ぶ
detrimental consequence:有害な結果

Table 1.1.1: The Evolving Risks Landscale (2007-2015)
43


Source: Global Risks reports 2007-2015, World Economic Forum.
Note: Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years, as definitions and the set of global risks have evolved with new issues emerging on the 10-year horizon. For example, cyber attacks, income disparity and unemployment entered the set of global risks in 2012. Some global risks were reclassified: water crises and rising income disparity were recategorized as societal risks and as a trend, respectively, in 2015. The 2006 edition of the Global Risks report did not have a risks landscape.

この表は2007年から2015年までのグローバルリスク一覧
原典は以下のところにあるので、明細は原典で、確認してください。
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_2015_Report15.pdf
2015年の分だけは以前のブログに翻訳してあります。
 
Figure 1.1: Global Risks of Highest Concern - for the Next 18 Months and 10 Years
26
Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2014, World Economic Forum. Note: Survey respondents were asked to select up to five risks of highest concern for each time frame. The percentage indicates the share of respondents who selected the specific global risk among the five risks of highest concern for each time frame. In each category, the risks are sorted by the total sum of mentions. See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated. See Appendix A for the full name and description.

ensure:確かにする
legibility:読みやすさ

木曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は一日資料の整理の日にもかかわらず、ほとんどこなせなかった。かといって力を抜いていたわけではない。量が多すぎるのかもしれない。情報というのものは目に見えないので、いくらやっても減らないということはある。今日は昼夜、忙しい。昼は住友化学の高尾副社長、夜はグロコムの学長と東レの若色さんだ。ではまた明日。


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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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