2015年04月26日

Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (11)

Economic Risks: Out of the Spotlight? 

Spotlight:世間の注目

The global economy is returning to growth, albeit sluggishly, and there is a feeling that significant progress has been made in reducing the likelihood of another financial crisis (as explored in Box 1.4). This may reflect a false sense of control, as history shows that people do not always learn from past failures and are often taken by surprise by the same risks. 

false sense of control:物事や自分自身をコントロールしているという誤った感覚


The global unemployment rate is expected to remain at current levels until 2018, reflecting a growing problem of structural unemployment in advanced economies. This will likely keep wages low, maintaining deflationary pressures; in the Eurozone, inflation fell as low as 0.66% in 2014. As past years have seen a build-up of debt in many major economies – notably China, where the corporate debt-to-GDP ratio went from 92% in 2003-2007 to 110% in 2013 – the possible risk is that deflation could reduce debtors’ ability to repay, threatening the future stability of the financial system.

Conversely, low interest rates have also fuelled the risk of asset bubbles. Since the financial crisis, the use of expansionary monetary policy – such as quantitative easing and zero interest rates – has not had the expected impact of significantly increasing credit availability in the real economy, instead leading to a reflation of asset prices. Credit booms and asset bubbles have historically resulted in bank bailouts and recession in the real economy (see Box 1.3). 

Conversely:一方で
expansionary monetary policy:景気刺激型金融政策/金融政策の緩和
credit availability:利用可能な資金
reflation :通貨再膨張 ある国家において、デフレで停滞している経済を適正と思われるインフレ水準に戻すために金融政策が取られている状態。または、その政策。

The risks of a failure of a major financial mechanism or institution and fiscal crises are perceived as equally impactful and likely as in last year’s report (Figure 1.4), yet other risks, such as water crises, interstate conflict and the failure of climate-change adaptation, have taken centre stage. This runs the risk of diverting decision-makers’ attention away from continuing economic reforms. Despite recent efforts (see Box 1.4), either deflationary pressures or the bursting of an asset-price bubble could still cause the failure of a major financial mechanism or institution – especially as the shadow banking sector is less regulated yet increasingly important. Likewise, in many countries public debt levels are still worryingly high so that the related risks are likely to persist over many years. 

diverting decision-makers’ attention away from:から意思決定者の注意をそらす
public debt :公的債務/国債

Decision-makers’ focus on other risks could lead to inaction at a time when continued progress in structural reform is most necessary; The Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015 outlines some priorities. Maintaining the momentum of both financial and fiscal reforms will be crucial to avoid another major economic crisis. 

fiscal:財政の

Figure 1.4: The Changing Global Risks Landscape 2014-2015, Economic Risks
22
Source: Global Risks Perception Surveys 2013 and 2014, World Economic Forum.Note: See endnote 25

Box 1.3: Asset bubbles – a new old risk? 

The evidence of frothiness is increasing in a number of housing markets in both advanced and emerging economies – including Canada, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, France, Sweden, Norway, China, Hong Kong SAR and Singapore – as well as in a number of credit and equity markets across the world. 

 frothiness:泡立つこと
SAR:特別行政区(Special Administrative Region)

The traditional goal of central banks has been economic stability: keeping inflation low while achieving robust growth. The current realization is that central banks must also seek to preserve financial stability – which means, among other things, avoiding risky bubbles. The current theory is that macro-prudential regulation and supervision of the financial system will avoid bubbles and achieve financial stability. However, bubbles are very hard to identify (price increases could also reflect market movements), and macro-prudential regulation has not historically been effective and excludes the unregulated shadow banking system. 

prudential:慎重な

If macro-prudential regulation fails again, central banks will be left with only one tool – monetary policy – to pursue both goals of economic and financial stability. This may prove impossible. Trying to prick bubbles by using monetary policy risks causing a bond market rout and a hard landing for the real economy. However, keeping monetary policy loose in a bid to help the real economy risks inflating asset bubbles that will, inevitably, eventually burst and also damage the real economy. Loose monetary policy is the mother of all bubbles. Attempting to walk this tightrope will be a difficult issue for central banks in both advanced and emerging markets in the years to come. 

prove impossible:無理であることがわかる
prick:穴を開ける
rout:完全に打ち負かす
loose:緩める

日曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は海野塾で、午前はマレーシア、午後は孫子で内容の濃いものであった。孫子は孫子の内容を知っていないとついていけない高度な議論だったので、初めての参加者は面食らったに違いない。今日はいつものとおりで、スケートと英語の勉強だ。ではまた明日。


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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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