2015年04月29日

Global Risks 2015 10th Edition (14)

Box 1.6: The road to Paris – is 2015 make or break for climate change? 

In 2015 the international community has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to align the climate change and development agenda. A series of global summits on climate change, disaster risk reduction, financing for development and sustainable development goals could embed into the post-2015 global governance architecture a coherent agenda for tackling interlocking environmental risks. 

once-in-a-generation opportunity:一世代に一度の機会
align:同じ立場に置く/調整する
embed:組み込まれる
architecture:構造
interlock:連動させる
coherent:理路整然とした

Convergence among governments on these decisions could kick-start the next generation of sustainable growth and poverty reduction – through catalysing private finance and scaling low-carbon, climate-resilient investment, especially but not only in developing countries. However, the opportunity will be missed if governments continue to value narrow short-term concerns above the prospect of longer-term global prosperity and environmental security. More vulnerable populations will be consigned to the negative spiral of poverty and environmental degradation. 

catalyse:触媒する/触媒作用を及ぼす
scaling:剥がす
vulnerable population:弱者
consign:追いやる
environmental degradation:環境の悪化

Until recently, the expectation was that governments would struggle to finalize a strong global climate accord in time for the Paris climate conference in December 2015. But is the tide beginning to turn? At the United Nations Secretary-General’s Climate Summit in September 2014, over 1,000 businesses and investors signalled their support for global carbon pricing. So did some 73 countries, covering 52% of global GDP and 54% of global emissions. 

global carbon pricing:グローバルな炭素価格

Major consumer companies and financial institutions see the need to reduce global climate risks and have mobilized action along their supply chains, for example through the New York Declaration on Forests and the move towards climate-friendly coolants. The Oil & Gas Climate Initiative signalled refreshed engagement from major energy producers. 

mobilize:結集する
coolant:冷却材

The hope is that these coalitions of committed businesses could both inject concrete solutions and create a more positive global atmosphere for governments to collectively make decisions in 2015. A positive signal is the agreement between China and the United States in November 2014. A strong set of clear policy signals to the wider business community is needed from the world’s governments on their ambition to tackle environmental risks. The year 2015 is not an opportunity the world can afford to miss.

coalition:団結
inject:注入する
collectively:共同で 
afford to miss:取り損なう 
Technological Risks: Back to the Future 

Back to the Future:また将来に向かって

The risk of large-scale cyber attacks continues to be considered above average on both dimensions of impact and likelihood (see Figures 1 and 1.6) This reflects both the growing sophistication of cyber attacks and the rise of hyperconnectivity, with a growing number of physical objects connected to the Internet and more and more sensitive personal data – including about health and finances – being stored by companies in the cloud. In the United States alone, cyber crime already costs an estimated $100 billion each year.

Hyperconnectivity:a term invented by Canadian social scientists Anabel Quan-Haase and Barry Wellman, arising from their studies of person-to-person and person-to-machine communication in networked organizations and networked societies. The term refers to the use of multiple means of communication, such as email, instant messaging, telephone, face-to-face contact and Web 2.0 information services.


Figure 1.6: The Changing Global Risks Landscape 2014-2015, Technological Risks
12
Source: Global Risks Perception Surveys 2013 and 2014, World Economic Forum.Note: See endnote 25
While the “Internet of Things” (IoT) will deliver innovations, it will also entail new risks. Analytics on large and disparate data sources can drive breakthrough insights but also raise questions about expectations of privacy and the fair and appropriate use of data about individuals. Security risks are also intensified. There are more devices to secure against hackers, and bigger downsides from failure: hacking the location data on a car is merely an invasion of privacy, whereas hacking the control system of a car would be a threat to life. The current Internet infrastructure was not developed with such security concerns in mind. 

entail:引き起こす
Analytics:分析論
disparate:異質の
breakthrough insights:新しい洞察
intensify:増大する
device:仕掛け:方策
downside:マイナス面
whereas:その一方で

The IoT is likely to disrupt business models and ecosystems across a range of industries. While this will deliver innovation, the prospect of many large players across multiple industries being forced to change so radically at the same time raises potential systemic risks such as large- scale disruption in labour markets and volatility in financial markets. A major public security failure could also prevent the IoT from becoming truly widespread.

An important characteristic of global risks, which transpires across the cases included in this report, is their interconnectedness, shown in the Interconnections Map in Figure 2. It is important to stress that risks cannot be seen in isolation. The feedback loops between risks and the fact that they are also driven by underlying trends (Figure 3) raise their complexity and make it more difficult to control individual risks. Over past years, the speed of transmission and the strength of interconnections have increased. The complexity of addressing risks, their likelihood and their potential consequences raise the question of preparedness, on the global, regional, national and local levels.

transpire:明らかになる
feedback loops:フィードバックを繰り返すことで、結果が増幅されていくこと。
transmission:送信/伝達

水曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日の昼は三井化学の松崎さん。もう付き合って長いのに、彼が米国の弁護士の資格を持っていることを初めて知った。謙虚な方だ。今日は1日、英語の資料を読むことにする。気が向いたら小説を書く。今安倍さんがアメリカにいるのと、慰安婦とかアメリカ人の日本人に対する意識とかを勉強するいい機会なので。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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