2015年11月29日

タイの政治の将来 独裁の500日(2)

The junta says there will be a big election in October 2015. Thus far it has refused to say if it will impose any restrictions on the franchise. But it would be a wonder if it didn’t. For the whole point of the coups of 2006 and 2014 has been to overturn the winner-takes-all system which served Mr Thaksin so well, in favour of governance by “moral people” who cannot win elections. 

Thus far:今までのところ
franchise:選挙権
For the whole point:なぜなら全体の観点は
moral people:道徳的な人たち 民主主義市民連合 タイのタクシン元首相に反対する市民政治団体

Much of the elite feels offended to hear a spade called a spade. But there can be no mistaking that Thailand’s government has slipped from the reach of any popular majority. The dictatorship which has replaced it will make every effort to outlast the lifespan of the current king. 

offend:不快感を与える
a spade called a spade:あからさまに言う
slipped from:離れる
reach:権力の及ぶ範囲
outlast:より長生きする

Most Thai citizens (and most Western governments too) would like to see Thailand emerge someday as a prosperous, democratic republic, a leader within South-East Asia. For them the near-term future looks unpromising. Large parts of the economy are essentially criminal conspiracies based on smuggling, prostitution, gambling and corruption. Research by the World Bank shows that only half of all income shows up in Thailand’s national-accounts data—which is among the lowest rates in Asia. 

essentially:ほとんど
smuggling:密輸入する
show up:姿を見せる

And while the benefits of Thailand’s economic growth since the 1960s have raised incomes and provided health care and education to most Thais, the pillars of future prosperity look shaky. The things that will be required for further development—rule of law, a well-regulated financial system, transparency of wealth, a strong commitment to science and education—are in short supply. 

pillar:中心部分
shaky:よろめく

The junta’s very existence represents a rejection of the rule of law. While its commitment to stamp out corruption sounds good, graft is too entrenched to be rooted out by the army alone; like the government it replaced, the officer corps is essentially a business club, serving the country’s elite. The financial system, long under the control of the wealthiest Thais and leading Thai-Chinese business groups, will remain a closed shop. The central bank, which became notorious for its mismanagement of the financial crisis in 1997 and 1998, has since pursued a course that is directly supportive of the wealthy and has significantly slowed growth. Much has been written about the successes of the Thai economy, but Thailand’s record in raising peoples’ standards of living post-1997 is actually worse than that of any other country in East or South-East Asia (with the notable exception of North Korea**). The secretive policies of the Crown Property Bureau, the palace’s investment arm and the biggest conglomerate in Thailand, reflects a deep resistance to transparency. Finally, if freedom of thought and expression are to be the basis of any scientific society—then Thailand will just have to wait. 

stamp out :撲滅する
entrench:確立する
root out:根絶する
corps:軍団/集団
essentially:ほとんど
closed shop: クローズド・ショップ◆該当職種の職種別労働組合員の中からのみ、社員を採用する事業所、またはその制度。アメリカでは1947年のタフト・ハートレイ法(Taft-Hartley Act)により禁止された。
secretive:秘密主義の

The forces that are leading the society backwards are now unassailable, according to the letter of the law. They shield themselves from every other kind of criticism by their association with the monarchy. Challenging a state that has been endorsed by the king is socially unacceptable—and now it is a criminal offence, too. 

unassailable:否定しようがない
letter of the law:法律の条文
shield:保護する
criminal offence:刑事犯罪

日曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は海野塾があった。いつものように木元と反省会を行った。そのあとはバングラディッシュの講演資料のデータ集めを行い、今日そのたたき台を作成する。午後からは英語の勉強があるが、そのあとは明日のダイセルの研修資料の準備がある。今日も超多忙だ。5時から起きている。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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