2015年11月30日

タイの政治の将来 独裁の500日(3) 空には限界がある。 軍事演習がとんでもない飛行機の遅延を引き起こしている。

Eventually public opinion will turn against the junta. But a social response to economic failure will take time to develop. Thailand’s economy is short of labour, with nearly full employment. Its fiscal position is enviable by most European and Asian standards. 

enviable:羨ましいほどの

Yet a meaningful economic recovery in the second half 2014 would be nothing short of a miracle. Imports fell by 14% year-on-year in June and industrial output fell by 6.6%. Overall production, consumption, investment and tourism all slumped. Investment, which follows demand, will not pick up until the collapse in domestic demand has been reversed. High household debt and consumers’ reluctance to invest their black money are likely to complicate a return to rapid growth. Whatever happens in the next few months, Thailand is likely to be the slowest-growing economy in Asia this year. 

nothing short of :まさに〜にほかならない
complicate a return:戻るのを困難にする

At some point the self-appointed leadership is bound to weary of defending itself on the pretext of building a democracy. Most dissenters appear to have resigned themselves to the fact that their views will not matter for a while, perhaps two or three years. Many are too busy simply trying to make ends meet. 

bound to:しなければならない/する運命にある
weary:ひどく疲れた/うんざりした
pretext:口実/言い訳
dissenter:異議を唱える人たち
resigned themselves to:に甘んじる
matter:大きな違いがある/問題である
make ends meet:収入の範囲内でやりくりする

To stay in power till the next royal succession, the generals must prove that their brand of authoritarianism can improve the lot of 68m Thais. If they pulled it off, theirs would be the first coup anywhere since the end of the cold war that actually raised the pace of income growth. It will never be known what Thailand could have achieved for itself this decade within a democratic framework. If Thailand’s own history is a reliable guide, abandoning democracy can be expected to lead straight to economic stagnation and exacerbated inequality. 

pulled it off:うまくやり通す

Corrections to this article: * This clause was changed to refer specifically to the 2006 coup. As a reader pointed out, some of the leaders of previous coups were not so quick to hand over the reins. ** Another reader directed our attention to the case of North Korea, which we had overlooked somehow. Thank you, both. 

hand over the reins:権限を移譲する
overlook:見過ごす/見落とす

これはエコノミストだ。

The sky is a limit
Military exercises contribute to dreadful airline delays
Aug 2nd 2014 | BEIJING | From the print edition

空には限界がある。
軍事演習がとんでもない飛行機の遅延を引き起こしている。



CHINA’S airlines and airports have long been notorious for their lateness. Since mid-July they have got much, much worse as rafts of flights have been delayed or cancelled. On July 26th the country’s Civil Aviation Administration warned of “massive flight delays” in eastern and central China. Capacity would drop by 65% on some routes, the agency said. On July 28th nearly 200 flights were cancelled at Shanghai’s two airports, and 120 were delayed by more than two hours. 

rafts of:たくさんの

Frustrated travellers beg for more information. While some officials, rather implausibly, have put it all down to bad weather, it perhaps marks an advance in transparency that others blame “air-traffic control”, and specifically the role of military drills, for the havoc. Even so, claims by the defence ministry that the live-fire drills they announced were having only “limited impact” on civilian aviation have been met with raspberries. 

beg for:懇願する
implausibly:信じがたいことに
havoc:大混乱
live-fire:実弾発射
met with raspberries:馬鹿にする

月曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は朝5時過ぎから夜の10時過ぎまでぶっ続けで仕事をしてしまった。バングラデッシュの講演原稿とダイセルの講演原稿があったからだ。今朝は7時半から異業種交流会がある。もうそろそろ出ないといけない。夜はダイセルの講演だ。今日が最終回になる。夜は懇親会だ。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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