2016年05月19日

中国最大の都市はより巨大化することを恐れている(2)

Living in large cities has never been easy for rural migrants. Until 2003, police could expel anyone found without proof of employment or a residence permit (often after detaining them for weeks or even months). The hukou system is still an invisible barrier. Migrants are often not allowed to buy houses or cars in a city if they do not have hukou there. Officials, sometimes lax in their application of safety rules, are zealous in their use of them to evict migrants from lodgings. 

lax:手を抜いた
evict:立ち退かせる

In 2014 the central government issued a plan for what it called “new-type urbanisation”. This envisaged 60% of the population living in urban areas by 2020 (56% do now) and outlined measures to give migrants greater access to public services. But the 16 largest cities were urged to restrict migration by using a “points system” offering urban-welfare privileges only to the educated and affluent few. China’s new five-year plan for economic and social development, approved in March, calls for “people-centred urbanisation”. But some cities are allowed to be choosy about what kind of people they focus on. The government does not want the biggest ones to develop the kind of slum-sprawl that is common in other developing countries. It worries that shanty towns may breed social instability and blot the cities’ image. 

envisaged :明確に心に描く
affluent:裕福な
choosy:選り好みする
slum-sprawl:sprawling slums 不規則に広がっていくスラム街
shanty:掘建小屋
blot:を汚す

Beijing and Shanghai, the megacities of greatest political and business importance, have exploited this leeway with the most enthusiasm. Both have large middle-class populations, many of whose members resent sharing the cities’ superior amenities with people they regard as outsiders. 

leeway:余地 ・余裕
resent:憤慨する

Since 2014, the two cities have tightened restrictions on access to local schools. Parents in Beijing need to show contracts proving they have jobs and housing. This is difficult for the many migrants who are employed casually and have no formal agreement with their landlords. Such restrictions contributed to a fall in the number of migrants’ children enrolled in Beijing’s primary schools by 22% in 2014. Using similar rules, Shanghai is estimated by some Chinese scholars to have excluded 50,000-80,000 children from its primary schools in the past two years. In February the central government issued new guidelines aimed at improving the lot of more than 60m children “left behind” in the countryside by migrant workers, appealing to parents to take their children with them when possible. Beijing and Shanghai are making that more difficult. 

casually:たまたま

The cities’ measures may be working. Government statistics show the migrant population in Shanghai fell by 1.5% in 2015, the first drop in 28 years. In Beijing, the number of migrants increased by 0.5%, the slowest rate since 1998. 

There are other reasons for the cities’ loss of allure. They include the soaring cost of housing in both, and the growth of job opportunities in smaller cities closer to migrants’ hometowns. There is also a dwindling supply of cheap labour in the countryside. The country’s working-age population fell by nearly 5m last year, the biggest drop ever (see chart). But Beijing and Shanghai are compounding the problems caused by these trends. The two cities may believe they are helping middle-class residents, but they risk pushing up the cost of the labour that the middle classes depend upon, not least for help at home. That, it seems, is a price the two cities are willing to pay—and a much lower one than building more schools and hospitals and better public transport. 

allure:魅力
dwindling:だんだん減少する
compounding:さらに悪化させる
not least:とりわけ




木曜日。今日はこれまで。都市化の推進は先進国になる上での必須の条件だ。ただ、北京と上海は農民工の定住に対して否定的だ。でもようやく農民工のこれらの都市への流入がなくなってきた。農民工の住んでいる近くの地方都市の都市化を推進しているが、その方向に進んでいくのだろう。これだけの人口を抱えているので、経済の成長のバランスを考えていくのは至難だろう。成長だけでなく、治安、職の安定、教育、福利、居住のバランスを考えていかなければならない。

昨日は海野塾があり、懇親会もあった。土曜日同様、楽しいひと時だ。今日は溜まった資料の整理と午後5時頃からは本が少しかけそうだ。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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