The result could be disastrous for the Republican Party and, more important, for America. Even if this is as far as he goes, Mr Trump has already done real damage and will do more in the coming months. Worse, in a two-horse race his chances of winning the presidency are well above zero. 

two-horse race：一騎打ち
well above： 〜を軽く超えて、〜を優に上回って

It is possible that, with the nomination secured, Mr Trump will now change his tone. The crassness of his insults may well be muted as he tries to win over at least some of the voters, particularly women, who now abhor him. His demeanour may become more presidential (though there was little sign of that in this week’s bizarre and baseless pronouncements that the father of Ted Cruz, his erstwhile rival, had been around Lee Harvey Oswald before he shot John F. Kennedy). What he will almost certainly not do is change political course. For it is increasingly clear that Mr Trump has elements of a world view from which he does not waver (see article). These beliefs lack coherence or much attachment to reality. They are woven together by a peculiarly 21st-century mastery of political communication, with a delight in conflict and disregard for facts, which his career in reality television has honed. But they are firm beliefs and long-held.

secured：確保された
crassness：無神経さ
insult：無礼な言葉
muted：和らげる・無言の
abhor：を嫌悪する
demeanour：態度
bizarre：奇妙な・突飛な
baseless：根拠のない
pronouncement：声明
erstwhile：かっての
been around：と関わっていた
waver：ためらう
coherence：首尾一貫性
attachment to reality：現実への関心
woven together ：織り合わせる
peculiarly：特に・独特に
mastery：完全な理解・支配
delight in conflict：紛争が大好き
honed：磨きをかける
long-held：長年抱いてきた・かねてからの

Beyond the braggadocio
That world view was born, in part, on his father’s construction sites in New York in the 1960s. Mr Trump likes to explain that he once spent his summers working in such places alongside carpenters, plumbers and men carrying heavy scaffolding poles. That experience, he claims, gave him an understanding of the concerns of the hard-working blue-collar men whom American politics has left behind. It explains his deep-rooted economic nationalism. 

braggadocio：口先だけの自慢
plumber：水道工事業者
scaffolding：足場

Mr Trump has railed against trade deals for decades. He was arguing against NAFTA in the early 1990s. He now calls it the worst trade deal in the history of the world. Similarly, he has always viewed America’s trade deficit as evidence of foul play or poor negotiating skills. For a man with such convictions, it is plain that more such trade deals would be a disaster and that American companies should move production back home or face tariffs. Mr Trump might be willing to bargain over the penalties they should pay, but the underlying instincts are deeply held. He is a conviction protectionist, not an opportunistic one. And, judging by the results of the Republican primaries, at least 10m voters agree with him. 

rail against： 〈文〉〜に憤慨［抗議］する、〜を罵る、〜を激しく非難する、〜に不満をぶちまける、〜に毒づく
foul play：不正行為・犯罪行為
conviction：信念
plain：明白な
face：顔を向ける
bargain：駆け引きをする
underlying instinct：内在する強い動機

On foreign policy Mr Trump mixes a frustration at the costs of America’s global role, something that has become common after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, with a desire to make the country feared and respected. Those outside America who dwell on his geographical and diplomatic ignorance (of which there is plenty) risk missing the simple principle that animates him. Mr Trump wants to make those outside America pay the full cost of the hegemonic protection it gives them. Allies should have to stump up more for American bases on their soil, and for the costs of equipping and paying the soldiers in them. It is not correct to call this isolationism, since Mr Trump has also proposed some foreign adventures, including the occupation of Iraq and seizure of its oilfields. Rather it is a Roman vision of foreign policy, in which the rest of the world’s role is to send tribute to the capital and be grateful for the garrisons. 

mix：ごちゃ混ぜにする
frustration：欲求不満・挫折
become common：普及する・一般的になる
feared：恐れさせる
geographical：地理的な
dwell on：こだわる
ignorance：無知
animate：元気付ける
hegemonic protection：主導権による保護
stump up：金を渋々出す
foreign adventure：外国への火遊び
 tribute：貢物
grateful：感謝する
garrison：守備隊

Counting the damage
For those, such as this newspaper, who believe in the gains from globalisation and the American-led liberal order, this is a truly terrifying world-view. Fortunately, Mr Trump will probably lose the general election. A candidate whom two-thirds of Americans view unfavourably will find it hard to win 65m votes, which is about what the winning candidate will need. The share of women who disapprove of him is even higher.

terrifying：ぞっとするような

月曜日。今日はこれまで。トランプの悪口を言っていて、ヒラリーが勝つと言っているがそうだろうか。ヒラリーは今、例のEメールの件でその嘘の供述でもめている。だからサンダースが撤退しないのだろう。確かに、トランプの今までの発言は目にあまるものもあるが、外交政策においてはだんだん勉強していくだろう。ただ、日米同盟が片務契約だということには最後までこだわるだろう。

昨日は研修資料を作成し、夕方からは本を書いた。本もいつの間にか１０万字を超えてしまい、予定通りに進んでいる。書きたくて書いているので、進捗しているのだろう。今朝は７時半から朝会がある。６時半には家を出ないといけない。今日は半日、本を書いて、半日は研修資料の作成だ。今週の海野塾のテーマがMulti-cunturalismなので、ちょっと難しい。というか範囲が広い。ではまた明日。