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グローバル人材育成の道｜海野惠一（元アクセンチュア代表）2016年06月28日
最悪を予想している 連邦準備制度理事会の理事はなぜ金利を上げることができないかを理解しようとしている
Expect the worst
Fed officials try to understand why they cannot keep raising rates
Jun 20th 2016, 11:21 BY R.A. | LONDON
最悪を予想している
連邦準備制度理事会の理事はなぜ金利を上げることができないかを理解しようとしている
FOUR times a year the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve board that sets monetary policy, concludes with a special flourish: a press conference, and the publication of the members’ economic projections. The latter includes a “dot plot” which shows how members think rates will unfold over the next few years. When the new dots were released at the end of the June meeting, on the 15th, it quickly became clear that one was not like the others. FOMC members overwhelmingly see the Fed’s main interest rate rising to between 1% and 2% in 2017, then on to between 2% and 3% in 2018: all of them, that is, except one. That oddball member projected the interest rate would stay right about where it is now over the next two years. When the projections dropped, Fed watchers immediately speculated about just which member had turned super-dovish (or super pessimistic).
Federal Open Market Committee：連邦公開市場委員会◆【略】FOMC
Federal Reserve board：連邦準備制度理事会
with a flourish：華々しく
ドットプロット（Dot plot）とは、統計用グラフの一種。横軸に名義尺度（カテゴリ、番号など）を取り、1標本を1個の点（ドット）で表現する。
overwhelmingly：圧倒的多数で
oddball：風変わりな
dovish：ハト派
Two days later, all was revealed. The anomalous dots belonged to James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, and traditionally a bit of a hawk. But Mr Bullard’s dots represent something more interesting than a simple shift in the outlook for the economy. As he made clear in two statements published on June 17th, his whole way of thinking about monetary policy in the economy has changed.
anomalous：異例の
Mr Bullard begins by noting that the Fed seems to have more or less succeeded in achieving its mandates. The unemployment rate, at 4.7%, is about as low as it ever gets. Meanwhile, inflation is close to returning to the Fed’s 2% target. Growth is plodding along in steady fashion. And yet this is all occurring against a policy backdrop that remains wildly out of the ordinary, at least by pre-crisis standards. The Fed’s main interest rate is barely above zero (and has plumbed such depths for the last eight years). The Fed’s balance sheet remains at the enormous size to which it grew during multiple quantitative-easing operations. And the Fed is promising to raise rates only very, very gradually. Monetary policy, as the central bank constantly insists, is highly accommodative. And yet the economy is behaving like it is coasting along the gentlest of downward slopes.
plod：のろのろと進む
backdrop：背景
plumbed：を奥底まで見抜く・測深する
accommodative：緩和の
behaving：行動する
One could interpret this puzzling outcome in a few ways. Mr Bullard sees it as evidence that the economy does not converge toward some steady state, “normal” condition, in which interest rates sit at a comfortable 4% or so. The idea that eventually the natural processes of the economy will support “lift off” and “normalisation” is wrong, he thinks.
converge：収束する
lift off：離昇・打ち上げる
Instead, there are many stable regimes in which an economy can land, he reckons, and which can be stable until some shock comes along to push it out. Right now, the American economy is in a low growth, low inflation, low interest-rate regime. It has been stuck there for years, even as the Fed’s published projections suggest that a rise back to “normal” rates is just over the horizon. Mr Bullard is effectively saying: let’s dispense with that fantasy.
stuck：身動きが取れない
dispense with ：なしで済ます
fantasy：絵空事
The willingness to take a hard look at this experience and ask whether the Fed hasn’t gotten something wrong is certainly commendable. But “things seem to stay as they are until disturbed” needs more fleshing out to work as a theory of monetary policy. Mr Bullard offers two broad stories about his regime-based view of the economy, with quite different implications.
take a hard look at：綿密に調べる
commendable：賞賛に値する
disturb：乱す・妨害する
火曜日。珍しく、今日は金融の記事だ。金利がどうなるか心配で取り上げた。イリノイ連銀の頭取のJames Bullardは経済がまだ停滞しているし、少なくとも金融危機の前のレベルまできたが、まだ金利を上げるところまでは行っていない。慎重な意見を持っている。
昨日は４時に起きて、７時半からの朝会に出て、昼はいつもの仲間との会食。午後は眠気を抑えて、研修資料のレビュー。なんと１２時半まで。今朝は５時半に起きて、このブログの準備。昼は豊洲まで行って、SCSKの有澤さんと会食。夜は神谷さんのイベントに参加。その間、資料の作成。２時間ぐらいは本を読みたい。ではまた明日。
Fed officials try to understand why they cannot keep raising rates
Jun 20th 2016, 11:21 BY R.A. | LONDON
最悪を予想している
連邦準備制度理事会の理事はなぜ金利を上げることができないかを理解しようとしている
FOUR times a year the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve board that sets monetary policy, concludes with a special flourish: a press conference, and the publication of the members’ economic projections. The latter includes a “dot plot” which shows how members think rates will unfold over the next few years. When the new dots were released at the end of the June meeting, on the 15th, it quickly became clear that one was not like the others. FOMC members overwhelmingly see the Fed’s main interest rate rising to between 1% and 2% in 2017, then on to between 2% and 3% in 2018: all of them, that is, except one. That oddball member projected the interest rate would stay right about where it is now over the next two years. When the projections dropped, Fed watchers immediately speculated about just which member had turned super-dovish (or super pessimistic).
Federal Open Market Committee：連邦公開市場委員会◆【略】FOMC
Federal Reserve board：連邦準備制度理事会
with a flourish：華々しく
ドットプロット（Dot plot）とは、統計用グラフの一種。横軸に名義尺度（カテゴリ、番号など）を取り、1標本を1個の点（ドット）で表現する。
overwhelmingly：圧倒的多数で
oddball：風変わりな
dovish：ハト派
Two days later, all was revealed. The anomalous dots belonged to James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, and traditionally a bit of a hawk. But Mr Bullard’s dots represent something more interesting than a simple shift in the outlook for the economy. As he made clear in two statements published on June 17th, his whole way of thinking about monetary policy in the economy has changed.
anomalous：異例の
Mr Bullard begins by noting that the Fed seems to have more or less succeeded in achieving its mandates. The unemployment rate, at 4.7%, is about as low as it ever gets. Meanwhile, inflation is close to returning to the Fed’s 2% target. Growth is plodding along in steady fashion. And yet this is all occurring against a policy backdrop that remains wildly out of the ordinary, at least by pre-crisis standards. The Fed’s main interest rate is barely above zero (and has plumbed such depths for the last eight years). The Fed’s balance sheet remains at the enormous size to which it grew during multiple quantitative-easing operations. And the Fed is promising to raise rates only very, very gradually. Monetary policy, as the central bank constantly insists, is highly accommodative. And yet the economy is behaving like it is coasting along the gentlest of downward slopes.
plod：のろのろと進む
backdrop：背景
plumbed：を奥底まで見抜く・測深する
accommodative：緩和の
behaving：行動する
One could interpret this puzzling outcome in a few ways. Mr Bullard sees it as evidence that the economy does not converge toward some steady state, “normal” condition, in which interest rates sit at a comfortable 4% or so. The idea that eventually the natural processes of the economy will support “lift off” and “normalisation” is wrong, he thinks.
converge：収束する
lift off：離昇・打ち上げる
Instead, there are many stable regimes in which an economy can land, he reckons, and which can be stable until some shock comes along to push it out. Right now, the American economy is in a low growth, low inflation, low interest-rate regime. It has been stuck there for years, even as the Fed’s published projections suggest that a rise back to “normal” rates is just over the horizon. Mr Bullard is effectively saying: let’s dispense with that fantasy.
stuck：身動きが取れない
dispense with ：なしで済ます
fantasy：絵空事
The willingness to take a hard look at this experience and ask whether the Fed hasn’t gotten something wrong is certainly commendable. But “things seem to stay as they are until disturbed” needs more fleshing out to work as a theory of monetary policy. Mr Bullard offers two broad stories about his regime-based view of the economy, with quite different implications.
take a hard look at：綿密に調べる
commendable：賞賛に値する
disturb：乱す・妨害する
火曜日。珍しく、今日は金融の記事だ。金利がどうなるか心配で取り上げた。イリノイ連銀の頭取のJames Bullardは経済がまだ停滞しているし、少なくとも金融危機の前のレベルまできたが、まだ金利を上げるところまでは行っていない。慎重な意見を持っている。
昨日は４時に起きて、７時半からの朝会に出て、昼はいつもの仲間との会食。午後は眠気を抑えて、研修資料のレビュー。なんと１２時半まで。今朝は５時半に起きて、このブログの準備。昼は豊洲まで行って、SCSKの有澤さんと会食。夜は神谷さんのイベントに参加。その間、資料の作成。２時間ぐらいは本を読みたい。ではまた明日。
