2016年08月09日

ヨーロッパの銀行 ストレステストの結果が、大まかだが健全な産業であることを明らかにしている。 しかし、問題がイタリアやアイルランドではまとわりついている。

European banks
Stress tests results reveal a broadly healthier industry
Europe’s banks are in a better position than two years ago. But problems linger in Italy and Ireland
Jul 30th 2016 | Business and finance 

ヨーロッパの銀行
ストレステストの結果が、大まかだが健全な産業であることを明らかにしている。
ヨーロッパの銀行は2年前よりも良い状況にある。しかし、問題がイタリアやアイルランドではまとわりついている。

ANY big announcement about banks that is made after the markets close, and with a weekend to come before they reopen, brings back dark memories of the 2007-08 financial crisis. The results of the latest European bank stress test, which were released on Friday night, lacked the drama of that period and contained much that was reassuring. But they did not dispel the doubts that linger around a handful of institutions, notably in Italy. 

lacked:欠いている
reassuring:安心させる
dispel:を払いのける



Aggregate numbers suggested that European banks were in a generally healthier position than at the time of the last stress test, in autumn 2014. This time the banks started off with an average “fully-loaded” capital ratio of 12.6% and ended up with one of 9.2% in the tests’ most adverse scenario; that compares with a fall from 11.1% to 7.6% last time. No country’s banking sector ended these tests with an average capital ratio below the 5.2% of Ireland; in 2014, the capital ratio for several countries was negative, implying systemic insolvency. And all banks, except for Monte dei Paschi of Italy and Allied Irish, had capital ratios in the adverse scenario that exceeded 5.5%—a threshold that has previously been seen as “failing” the tests (this time the European Banking Authority eschewed pass/fail benchmarks and insisted that the results should be treated only as guidance.) 

Aggregate:統計の・総数の
fully-loaded:フル装備の
capital ratio :自己資本比率
adverse:好ましくない 
insolvency:破産
eschewed:を意識して避ける

That guidance is not as clear-cut as it might be, however. The adverse scenario was based on the effects of a spike in long-term yields—in a world of ultra-low interest rates, other shocks seem more likely. For some banks, results varied based on whether current “transitional” capital requirements were used, or the “fully-loaded” requirements of when the Basel III capital rules enter into force in 2019. Most significantly, this year’s tests only examined 51 banks from 14 EU member states and Norway, instead of the 123 banks from 22 countries scrutinised in 2014; so no banks from the still-struggling economies of Greece, Portugal or Cyprus were included, undoubtedly flattering the results. Banks complained that the tests were too harsh in some respects, for example in their assumption of static balance-sheets: they argue that in the event of a shock they would take action, such as asset sales, to shore up their finances. 

clear-cut:明確な
adverse scenario:不利なシナリオ
spike:急上昇
Basel III capital rules:2013 年から適用されるバーゼルIIIでは、自己資本の質・水準が大幅に引き上げられるため、銀行 によっては ROE(自己資本利益率)が低下すると予想される。
scrutinised:詳しく調べる
flattering:実際より良く見せる
shore up:立て直す・テコ入れする

The broadly encouraging aggregate results were overshadowed by the dismal performance of a few banks. Worst of the bunch was Monte dei Paschi (whose headquarters are pictured above). The Italian lender’s capital ratio was the only one to turn negative in the adverse scenario, at -2.4%, meaning, in plain English, that it would be bankrupt. The total fall in its capital ratio, of 14.5%, was also by far the largest of all the banks being tested, underlining the poor quality of the assets on its balance-sheet. Indeed, the bank moved before the stress-test announcement to quell fears of its demise, by announcing a plan to raise additional capital, and to move €9.2 billion worth of non-performing loans (€27.7 bn of gross loans, discounted to 33% of book value) off its balance-sheet into a special-purpose vehicle. The bad loans will be securitised, with the senior tranche benefiting from an Italian government guarantee, the mezzanine tranches being bought by Atlante, a private-sector bank-rescue fund, and the equity stake left with Monte dei Paschi shareholders. To offset its loss on these bad loans, the bank plans to raise €5 billion in equity, although it is unclear how easy it will be for the underwriters, who are led by J.P.Morgan and Mediobanca, to find any takers. 

dismal:ひどく悪い
bunch:グループ
by far:はるかに
quell:抑える
demise:終了・停止
non-performing loan:不良債権
senior tranche:優先分割払い込み金
mezzanine:中二階
underwriter:証券引受人

火曜日。銀行のストレステストの結果を議論している。中でもイタリアのMonte dei Paschiは自己資本比率がマイナスになってしない、実質破産状態だ。回復するにはいろいろな手を打つにしても容易ではないという記事だ。

昨日の昼はいつもの会食で、久々のうまい蕎麦を食べられた。銀座のおむすびカフェだ。いちにち、雑務に追われた。事務所のゴミも相当だ。捨てても捨ててもいくらでもある。今日は巨大なプリンターを廃棄する日だ。新しいプリンターもセットできた。明日は電話も撤去する。これからは携帯電話とFAX電話、メール、Facebookアドレスにすることにした。もう電話の時代ではなさそうだ。今日は海野研の役員会。夜は三橋さんの夕食会がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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