2016年09月23日

Brexitが本当に意味するものは何か? Theresa Mayの大臣たちは慎重にしてきている。(2) 下水管から潜水艦まで 候補者が外交政策を議論しているとその絵空事に無気力感が伴う。

These interventions worry Tory Brexiteers, who fret that having won a famous victory in June, they could lose the war. Their fear is that, given the choice, Mrs May and Mr Hammond will lean more to staying in the single market than to taking back full control of migration, money and laws. Mr Davis said this week that having access to the single market was not the same as being a member of it, and added that giving up border control to secure membership was an “improbable” outcome. But he was slapped down when Mrs May’s spokeswoman said the remark was only Mr Davis’s personal opinion. He also talked of retaining as much of the status quo as possible, not least in areas like security and foreign-policy co-operation. 

fret:気をもむ
improbable:予想だにしない
slapped :ひどく批判する
not least:とりわけ

The case for staying in the single market is simple: economists say this will minimise the economic damage from Brexit. A “hard” Brexit that involves leaving the single market without comprehensive free-trade deals with the EU and third countries would mean a bigger drop in investment and output. Brexiteers claim that many countries want free-trade deals and the economy is proving more robust than Remainers forecast. Michael Gove, a leading Brexiteer and former justice secretary, scoffed that soi-disant experts predicting economic doom had “oeuf on their face”. 

scoffed:あざ笑う
soi-disant:自称の
economic doom:経済的破滅
oeuf:卵

Yet Mrs May is less complacent, acknowledging that it will not be “plain sailing” for the economy. Domestic business and financial lobbies are pressing to stay in the single market. As for trade deals, although she won warm words at the G20 summit from Australia’s prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, she was told firmly by Barack Obama and others that bilateral deals with Britain would not be a priority. The climate for free-trade deals is not propitious these days, and Mr Fox’s department is bereft of experienced trade negotiators. 

complacent:独りよがりの・呑気な
plain sailing:順調な航海
propitious:都合の良い
bereft:を完全に失った

Mrs May has ruled out an early election and a second referendum. She refuses to provide a “running commentary” on her Brexit plans. And she insists she can invoke Article 50 without a parliamentary vote. Yet she is being urged by some to delay, since it would set a two-year deadline for Brexit that can be extended only by unanimity among EU leaders. In a thoughtful paper for the think-tank Open Europe, Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the Treasury committee, says the government should first decide what sort of Brexit it wants, adding that its leverage is greater before it pulls the trigger. He suggests waiting until the French election in the spring or even the German one in September. 

ruled out:認めない
running commentary:状況変化の実況解説
leverage:影響力

Yet Mrs May might not be allowed to wait by her own party, let alone by fellow EU leaders eager to get Brexit out of the way before the European elections in mid-2019. The phoney war may soon turn hotter. 

let alone:まして〜ない
get Brexit out of the way:Brexitの邪魔にならないようにする

May首相のBrexitへの考えはBrexiteerとは真っ向から対立している。2年間の期間の間に彼女は流れを変えようとしているのは明らかだ。そのためには相当の策を内外に図っていく必要があるが、したたかな彼女ならそれができそうだ。

Sewers to submarines
Dullness confronts fantasy when the candidates debate foreign policy
Sep 10th 2016 | TAMPA | From the print edition

Dullness:無気力感

下水管から潜水艦まで
候補者が外交政策を議論しているとその絵空事に無気力感が伴う。

HILLARY CLINTON used flag-waving speeches in Florida and North Carolina this week, and a military-themed television forum in New York, to accuse her Republican rival, Donald Trump, of talking down the armed forces and failing to cherish the military alliances that underpin America’s global standing. Mrs Clinton’s hawkish instincts are sincere: several times as Secretary of State from 2009-13, she was readier to use force as a tool of geopolitics than was her boss, Barack Obama. 

talking down:見下す
cherish:心に抱く
instincts:生まれつきの能力・本能



But politics also explains her focus on whether Mr Trump has the temperament to be commander-in-chief. Recent opinion poll averages have tightened, suggesting that Mrs Clinton has lost as much as half of the roughly eight-point lead that she opened up after the national conventions in July, and that a fifth of voters are undecided, essentially because they dislike both candidates. With millions of Republicans, notably those with college educations, expressing distaste for Mr Trump, the Democrats have much to gain from casting the property developer as a menace to America and the world. 

temperament:気質・気性
menace:危険な人物

A speech in Tampa was billed by the Clinton campaign as making a case that their nominee knows how to keep America safe, while Mr Trump is unfit to be commander-in-chief. Alas her address was lacklustre and rambling, ranging from education policy to the importance of infrastructure (“what about our water systems, our sewer systems?”) before reaching foreign policy. The crowd did its bit, cheering lustily as she recalled urging the president to launch the raid that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011 (“You go girl!” shouted a woman). Mrs Clinton scolded Mr Trump for being “very loose in his talk” about when nuclear weapons should be used, and for saying that as president he would order the use of torture, which she said would imperil Americans worldwide. 

billed:発表される
lacklustre:活気がない
rambling:まとまりのない
sewer:下水管
lustily:力強く
loose:ずさんな・取り止めのない

木曜日。今日はこれまで。クリントンの記事だが、トランプと比較している。確かにトランプが米軍の最高司令官になることに対してはクリントンが言うように、危惧がある。クリントンは好戦的ではあるが、トランプに核のボタンを任せることができないと言うクリントンの言葉はもっともだ。ただ、彼女に対する人気も良くないのは事実だ。最悪の選挙だな。

昨日は大忙しだった。雑務が1日あって、本を書けなかった。それでも、4500通の海野塾の案内は出した。ビデオの編集の勉強を2時間できた。今日は朝からあちこち用事があって、午後は愚妻を病院に連れていく。事務所の返還のチェックもある。夜はファーストプレスの上坂さんとの会食があり、昼はPWCの椎木さんとの会食がある。今日も本は書けないかもしれない。まずいなあ。来週の中国の研修記事もちょっとは見ておかないといけない。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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