2016年10月01日

Rodrigo Duterteはここ数年の経済的な利益を帳消しにしてしまうかもしれない。 この新しい大統領は無神経で、野蛮なだけでなく、ひどく激しやすい。(2)

The Philippine economy grew by 7% in the second quarter, year-on-year, roughly double the long-run rate, and faster than China, let alone most other countries in the region. Unemployment, at 5.4%, is falling. The population is young and English-speaking, and a booming service sector is keeping more educated Filipinos from seeking their fortunes abroad. This burgeoning middle class—along with growing remittances from Filipinos abroad—anchors strong domestic consumption. During the six-year term of Mr Duterte’s predecessor, Benigno Aquino, the Philippine stock market boomed. Foreign direct investment more than doubled from 2009, the year before Mr Aquino took office, to 2015. 

long-run rate:長期的な成長率
let alone:は言うまでもなく
booming:急成長する
service sector:サービス産業
burgeoning:急成長する
remittances:送金
anchors:支える

Mr Duterte thus took over a country that was doing very well economically. His campaign focused not on abstractions such as foreign investment and the proper strategic balance between China and America, but on quotidian concerns: crime, traffic, corruption. After admitting that economic policy was not his strong suit, he promised to “employ the economic minds of the country” and leave it to them. His advisers duly released a sensible ten-point plan for the economy: it emphasised macroeconomic stability, improved infrastructure, reduced red tape and a more straightforward and predictable system of land ownership. Mr Duterte has also promised to focus on rural development and tourism. Workers’ advocates are pleased with his promise to crack down on “contractualisation”, whereby employers hire labour from third-party suppliers on short-term contracts to avoid paying benefits. Internet in the Philippines is slow and expensive; Mr Duterte has warned the incumbent telecoms firms to improve service or face foreign competition.

abstractions:抽象的な考え
quotidian:日常的な
strong suit:強み
duly :要求通りに
sensible:実用的な
straightforward:わかりやすい・徹底的な
predictable:予測できる
advocates:擁護者
crack down:厳重に取り締まる
contractualisation:契約で不利な条件で合意すること
benefits:諸手当
incumbent:責務のある

Unfortunately, Mr Duterte’s love of lynching and his propensity to impugn the mothers of foreign dignitaries are making investors nervous. Earlier this month the American Chamber of Commerce warned that the anti-drug campaign was calling into question the government’s commitment to the rule of law. An Asia-based financial adviser says that since Mr Duterte took over, investors are demanding a higher risk premium to hold Philippine assets. As Guenter Taus, who heads the European Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines, puts it, “A lot of people are hesitant to put their money into the Philippines at this point.” 

lynching:リンチ
propensity:好ましくないことへの性癖
impugn:言行を非難する
dignitaries:政府の高官 オバマのこと
calling into question:疑問視する

Mr Duterte’s critics fear that the drug trade will only subside temporarily, but the damage done to democratic institutions will linger. The police freely admit that drug syndicates have taken advantage of Mr Duterte’s green light to kill rivals or potential informants. Police impunity makes many nervous: one longtime foreign resident of Manila says he has started to hear fellow expats talk about leaving. He worries that an off-duty policeman could take issue with something he said or did, shoot him and get away scot-free. “This didn’t happen under Aquino,” he says. “You didn’t feel there was a group of people who could kill someone and not go to jail.” 

subside:徐々に静まる
linger:なかなか消えない
syndicates:犯罪シンジケート組織
informants:情報提供者
green light:ゴーサイン
impunity:免責
off-duty:非番の
take issue:対立する
get away [get off, go, escape] scot-free: (受けるはずの)罰を受けずに済む, 無事に逃れる.

Local businessmen worry that the president might simply denounce their firms as transgressors in some respect, without producing any evidence. Mr Duterte, after all, did something similar when he published a list of officials he accused of being drug dealers. By the same token, Mr Duterte singled out Roberto Ongpin, the chairman of an online-gambling company, as an example of a businessman with undue political influence. Shares in Mr Ongpin’s company promptly plunged more than 50%; Mr Ongpin resigned a day later, and promised to sell his stake in the firm. “Everyone is scared,” says one corporate bigwig. “None of the big business groups will stand up to him. They’re all afraid their businesses will be taken away.” 

denounce:非難する
transgressors:法律違反者
By the same token:同様に
singled:一人だけ選ぶ
undue political influence :不適切な政治的な影響
bigwig:有力者
stand up to:立ち向かう
taken away:奪い去る

A similar uncertainty hangs over Mr Duterte’s foreign policy. He seems to be inclined to strengthen the Philippines’ ties with China, at the expense of its alliance with America. During the campaign he criticised his predecessor’s frosty relations with China. The two governments are said to be preparing for bilateral talks—something that has not happened since 2013, when Mr Aquino’s government took a territorial dispute with China to an international tribunal. Shortly after Mr Duterte took office, the tribunal ruled in the Philippines’ favour, but he seems reluctant to press the point. 

frosty:冷淡な
press the point:その点を追求する

During the campaign Mr Duterte mused about the dispute with China over the Scarborough Shoal, a rich fishing ground in the South China Sea, “Build me a train around Mindanao, build me a train from Manila to Bicol…and I’ll shut up.” He also admitted that an anonymous Chinese donor had paid for some of his political ads. His reticence with China is all the more striking given his otherwise belligerent rhetoric and swaggering persona. 

mused:考え込む
Bicol:ビコル地方は、北部フィリピンのルソン島南部のビコル半島とその周囲の島々から成る地方。
shut up:黙らせる
reticence:沈黙
belligerent:好戦的
rhetoric:言葉遣い
swaggering:威張った
persona:表向きの顔
all the more striking:いっそう目立つ

Of course, it is not clear that Mr Duterte will be able to strike a deal with China, or even that he will continue to pursue the diplomatic volte-face he seems to be contemplating. The optimistic view sees Mr Duterte as more bluster than substance. His chief of police claimed on Sunday that the anti-drug campaign had reduced the supply of illegal drugs by 90%. That may allow him to claim victory and stir up some new furore, even as his advisers soldier on with the more mundane business of government. Optimists speculate that if he follows through on his pledges to improve infrastructure and boost rural development, he might even leave the Philippines in a better condition than he found it. 

strike a deal:取引を結ぶ
volte-face:方向転換・転向
contemplating:じっくり考える
bluster:怒鳴り散らす
substance:実体
stir up:かき立てる
furore:激しい怒り
soldier on :(困難なことなどをあきらめずに)やり続ける, がんばる.
mundane:日常的な

The pessimistic view sees Mr Duterte continuing to lose friends and alienate people. He picks fights with America, with business, with the other branches of government. China exploits his weakness, increasing its military presence in the Scarborough Shoal without building any railway lines. Investors stay away, and growth declines. The strongman ends up weakening his country. In the Philippines, sadly, that is a familiar story. 

alienate:遠ざける
exploits:つけこむ
strongman:独裁者

金曜日。今日はこれまで。Duterteはやはりとんでもない男だ。やり放題がどこまで突き進むのかが見当もつかない。麻薬の取り締まりはビジネスのおいても同様のことが懸念されている。外交政策も同じだ。彼に対して色々な見方があるが、アメリカとの関係においても、中国との関係においても、今まで通りではなさそうだ。Scarborough Shoalの今までの議論は一体どうなってしまうのだろうか。投資家がフィリピンの投資を控えるようになって来ている。どうなるかわからないからだ。

昨日の朝は聖路加病院で背骨の骨折の定期検診があった。昼は投資顧問の会社の孫社長と会食。夜は大手の化学会社の元社長と会食。人材開発の部長を紹介していただいた。水曜日の海野塾に顔を出されるそうだ。ありがたい。今日は海野塾がある。楽しい1日が始まる。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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