2016年10月22日

連邦制度準備理事会は次期大統領を不況で出迎えるのであろうか?

Will the Fed greet the next president with a recession? 
Oct 13th 2016, 19:02 BY R.A. | WASHINGTON 

greet:出迎える

連邦制度準備理事会は次期大統領を不況で出迎えるのであろうか?

IT WAS just a few months into the presidency of Barack Obama that America crept out of the Great Recession and into the current expansion. With just three months to go in his second term, Mr Obama seems likely to pass that expansion on to his successor. But what are they odds that she will make it through a four-year term without a brush with economic contraction? The Wall Street Journal polled 59 economists to get their view. They reckon there is a 60% chance of recession striking within the next four years. Is that a reasonable estimate? Let's consider a few facts about expansions and recessions. 

odds:可能性
brush:遭遇
contraction:収縮

 

1) This expansion is getting up there in years, by American standards... The recovery began in June of 2009, which means that we are currently in its 88 month. According to NBER, which maintains a list of historical recessions going back to the mid-19th century, the current expansion is the fourth longest on record. The third longest, at 92 months, was the great boom of the 1980s, which the Obama boom can surpass in March of next year. Then comes the 106-month expansion of the 1960s, and finally the Clinton boom of the 1990s, which lasted a full ten years. If it continues, the current expansion would become the longest in America's history in July of 2019, just over two years into the next presidential term. 

by American standards:アメリカの基準からすると
NBER:National Bureau of Economic Research 全米経済研究所◆URLhttp://www.nber.org/

2) But not necessarily by global standards. That's not quite right. A decade-long boom is still a long boom by global standards. It just also happens to be considerably shorter than the longest booms on record. A number of other rich countries have enjoyed expansions lasting much longer than ten years in their history. The Netherlands holds the record for longest expansion, at nearly 26 years, but Australia's current boom is closing in on the lead. 

closing in:悪くなってきている
on the lead:優位・主導権

3) Expansions do not die of old age. You might think they ought to, but they seem not to. That is, according to a recent analysis of postwar business cycles, expansions in their 80th month are no more likely to end in the next year than expansions in their 40th month. The mere fact of having been around longer does not make a boom more likely to end. 

die of old age:老衰で死ぬ

But end they do, so what's going on? Booms appear to meet three sorts of demise. The first is a shock that policy-makers fail to offset entirely. Crisis might break out somewhere in the world, triggering a financial panic or putting a chill on spending and investment. If central banks and governments do not respond quickly enough and powerfully enough, the shock becomes a recession. The second death is something like euthansia: a recession brought on (more or less) intentionally in order to bring an overheating economy back to earth. 

demise:終了
offset:補正する
chill:恐怖心
euthansia:安楽死(の処置)(mercy killing)
bring someone back to earth: (人)を夢から現実に呼び戻す、現実(の世界)に引き戻す

The classic example is the Volcker recession of the early 1980s. The third death is like the second, but accidental. Since the victory over inflation won in the early 1980s, recessions have invariably come at the end of central-bank tightening cycles; central bankers attempt to merely prevent an episode of overheating but end up turning the screw one too many times. 

Volcker recession:1980年代にはロナルド・レーガン大統領による減税・規制緩和を柱とした経済政策「レーガノミクス」や当時のFRB議長であるポール・ボルカーによる強力な金融引き締め政策によってインフレは終息した。ボルカーの「ディスインフレ」政策は1980年代のインフレを劇的に抑えた一方で、10%に迫る失業率を生み出した。 
invariably:変わることなく・決まって
episode:出来事
screw:圧力をかける

Some economists would say, not without some justification, that these are all actually the same variety of end: death by tight monetary policy, motivated at least in part by concerns about inflation. Think about the Great Recession, for example. It came at the end of a Fed tightening cycle, which almost certainly contributed to the severity of the housing crisis. It was as severe as it was because of the shock of the financial crisis; but, the Fed underresponded to the financial crisis because soaring oil prices in the summer of 2008 kept inflation fears alive. 

not without some justification;正当な根拠がないわけではないが・それなりの根拠があって
variety:様々な
severity:深刻さ
underresponded:十分に答えなかった

Whether one thinks the Fed was the arch-villain behind the Great Recession, or a hapless accomplice, or merely an ineffectual would-be rescuer, we nonetheless have a decent mental model for how the next recession will start. Some shock will probably play a role, policy will underrespond, and the decisive factor will be the vulnerability of an American economy kept from growing too explosively by a Fed hellbent on tightening. We learned this week that the Fed's decision not to raise rates in September was a very close shave indeed. 

arch-villain:大悪党
hapless:不運な
accomplice:共犯者
ineffectual:能力に欠ける
decent:ちゃんとした
hellbent:固く決心して
shave:極めて危ないところだ

日曜日。今日はこれまで。オバマの景気は長く続いていきたが、ここにきて不安要因が出てきている。今回の利上げの見送りもその一要因かもしれない。景気が悪くなるにはいくつかの要因があると言っている。経済のコントロールに失敗したり、インフィレを抑えようとして結果として不況を招いたりしてきた。連邦制度準備理事会の判断が次期大統領の景気に大きな影響を与えることになる。

昨日は海野塾があった。第2回目のホーチミンからの高橋講師の講義はうまく行った。ベトナムはネット環境がすこぶる良い。道路事情と一緒だ。午後のEdの講義も面白かった。欧米人のネゴシエーションスキルに我々は勝てるのだろうかという課題を提示してくれた。今日は朝から来週の研修テーマであるTPPにアメリカ人のスタッフと一緒に取り組む。今日はこの資料の作成と提案資料の作成、HP更新のためのWord Pressの不具合の修正をしないといけない。ドメインの再構築はほぼ完了することができた。問題は更新ができない。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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