2016年10月23日

連邦制度準備理事会は次期大統領を不況で出迎えるのであろうか?(2) どのようにしてトランプは論争の的である世論調査において落ち込んでいるのか。

That's pretty remarkable; after all, it has been years since the American economy has threatened to produce sustained inflation of 2% or more, and it certainly isn't red-lining now. Wage growth also remains tepid, and there are vulnerabilities galore across the global economy, from Brexiting Britain, to shaky European banks, to an unsteady Chinese economy. Despite all this, markets reckon the Fed will hike in December. 

remarkable:注目すべき
tepid:生ぬるい
galore:たくさんの
shaky :よろめく
hike:引き上げる

I think the American economy could easily avoid a recession over the next four years given the right macroeconomic policy. But the right macroeconomic policy, especially when so much of the world is stuck with near-zero rates, is to err on the side of faster growth and above-target inflation. Given that it is harder now than in the past to offset a spate of bad news or a drag on growth blowing in from abroad, it makes sense to keep a stronger head of steam than one might otherwise choose. That is not the way the Fed sees it, unfortunately. As a result, I'm inclined to agree with the Journal's economists; America is more likely than not to fall into recession during the next presidential term. 

err on the side of:必要以上にしすぎる
spate:多くの
drag:妨げ
blowing in:不意にやって来る
inclined:したいと思って

Really? But wouldn't we see some sign of economic trouble brewing if that were the case? No, we wouldn't. That's fact number four. 

if that were the case:もしそうだとしたら

4) Recessions happen when you don't expect them. Or more accurately, you can't see them until they are right upon you. In the growth forecasts it makes every April, for example, the IMF has never once foreseen the onset of a recession in the next calendar year. Even in its October forecasts it only correctly anticipates a coming recession about half the time. 

onset:の始まり
correctly:正確に言えば
half the time:半分の時間・大抵は

So deep was the Great Recession that American workers have only just begun to enjoy significant benefits, in terms of rising real pay, from the ongoing expansion. It would be a tragedy for those gains to be cut short prematurely. A careless Fed might land the country, and the next president, in just such a mess. 

prematurely:早くして
land:打撃を与える

次の大統領の時にアメリカの経済が不況に入るかいなかははんとも言えないが、せっかくここまでの好景気をなんとか継続したい。インフレ率が目標を達成した後の政策が問題となるかもしれない。連邦制度準備理事会の出方がどうでるか次第だろう。

How Trump has slumped in battleground polls 
Oct 18th 2016, 12:06 BY I.K. 

どのようにしてトランプは論争の的である世論調査において落ち込んでいるのか。

IT WOULD have been unthinkable to question Utah’s political allegiances one year ago. The state last sent its vote to a Democratic candidate for president when Lyndon Johnson was in office—in 1964. But the publication, on October 7th, of a video from 2005, in which Mr Trump boasts about grabbing women’s genitals, may break the spell in the conservative western state. Recent polls show Mr Trump holding only a slim lead over his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton. 

allegiances:忠誠心・支持
break the spell:興奮を冷ます
slim:わずかな
 

With only six electoral-college votes on offer, Utah is less a deathblow to the Trump campaign than a disturbing signal. Recent polls show bad deficits in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado—states considered important for Mr Trump. The margins for Mrs Clinton, previously favourable but slim, have swelled since the tape’s release. 

 electoral-college:大統領選挙人団
on offer:受け入れて
deathblow:致命的な打撃
disturbing signal :妨害信号
deficits:劣勢

Florida, the state most likely to decide the election, is showing a four-point preference for Mrs Clinton. Heavily populated, it is rich in delegates, with 29 of the 270 electoral-college votes needed for victory. The state leans slightly more Republican than the rest of the country. A loss in Florida for Mr Trump is likely to be followed with defeats in the more difficult terrain of New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Without Florida, Mr Trump’s chances of winning the presidency dwindle to 5%, reckons FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism outfit. 

terrain:地域

 
An analysis of Americans’ reactions to the video’s revelations done on behalf of The Economist by Crimson Hexagon, a social-media analytics firm, showed widespread revulsion at his remarks. Regardless of age, gender or region, the predominant sentiment of about 75%, who joined in a discussion of the video on Twitter, was one of disgust. The effect of the tape is likely to have been bolstered by claims, made by several women after the tape’s release, that Mr Trump had behaved as he had boasted. He has said that he hasn’t groped women. 

revelations:暴露
revulsion:嫌悪
predominant:支配的な
bolstered:促進する
behaved:行動する
groped:体を触る

In the case of a landslide Clinton win, Republican losses are likely to extend beyond the White House. As partisanship and polarisation have increased in America, fewer Americans split their tickets and vote for candidates of different parties. Only 4% of avowed Trump supporters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, polling data from YouGov shows. 

polarisation:分裂
split their tickets:他の党の候補者に投票する
avowed:自認する

Clinton followers are averse to Republicans in similar proportions. Betting-market odds that the Republicans lose control of the Senate have tracked Mr Trump’s polling slump, rising 28 percentage points in the last month and now standing at 72%. 

averse:反対して
Betting-market:賭博市場 
odds:賭け率
tracked:の後を追う

Mrs Clinton, for her part, has largely withdrawn from the campaign trail, voluntarily ceding the spotlight to her opponent’s regular self-immolations. It appears that her campaign is focused on running up the score now, spending millions in Indiana and Missouri, both of which favoured Mitt Romney by nearly 10% in 2012. It has also dispatched prominent surrogates like Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders along with $2m worth of funding to Arizona, historically an unfriendly land for Democrats. The latest poll in the state shows her with a 2% lead—within the margin of error, but it should have never been that close in the first place. 

withdrawn:身を引く
self-immolations:自滅
dispatched:派遣する
surrogates:代理人
in the first place:そもそも

月曜日。今日はこれまで。トランプの女性蔑視のビデオが流布してから一層、彼に対する支持率が落ち込んできている。彼が負けるというオッズは先月の28%から72%までなった。結果はこれからだが、どうなるのであろうか。

昨日はブログページは完全に修復できた。ホームページは使用するつもりはないのだが、Word Pressの更新はできるようにしておきたいのだが、変更するための機能が活用できない。あとは全部終了したので、ほっておいてもいいのだが。今週の研修資料の修正作業に入ることはできた。TPPなので、今までなんどもやってきているので、先週ほどではない。今日も一日、研修資料と提案資料に従事できそうだ。事務作業もたまっている。ではまた明日。


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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

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