If the EU cannot do trade, what can it do?
The CETA debacle heralds the age of “vetocracy”
Oct 29th 2016 | From the print edition

heralds：前兆になる
vetocracy：拒否権主義　権力が分散して、政府が重要な決定をできない状態

EUが貿易をすることができないと言うのなら、一体何ができると言うのだろうか？
CETAの大失敗は政府が何も決定できない時代の先駆けになる。



IN HAPPIER days for the European Union the arcana of international trade policy were a matter for harmless eccentrics, while the intricacies of Belgium’s constitutional arrangements were reserved strictly for masochists. Not in today’s Europe, where crises strike in the most unexpected places. Behold the fiasco of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada. Last-minute stonewalling by the Socialist-led parliament of Wallonia, the French-speaking bit of Belgium, meant that Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, had to hold off visiting Brussels for a summit on October 27th to sign the trade and investment deal which has been seven years in the making. As The Economist went to press the federal government had succeeded in winning the Walloons round. Thus did a regional parliament representing 3.6m people nearly thwart the will of governments representing 545m. 

arcana：秘法・秘密
eccentrics：一風変わった行動・変人
 intricacies：複雑さ
constitutional arrangement：合法的な取り決め
reserved：取っておく
masochists：マゾヒスト
Behold：みる・注目する
fiasco：大失敗
Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) ：カナダとEUの間の包括的経済貿易協定
stonewalling：妨害する
went to press：印刷所に出す
succeeded：成功する
thwart：阻止する

The debacle has many fathers. Wallonia’s Socialists, out of national office for the first time in decades, are troubled by fringe leftists and keen for attention. The Flemish, their richer (and more trade-friendly) partners in Belgium’s awkward federal construction, have long pushed for decentralisation that has now come back to bite them. The European Commission, which negotiates foreign trade on behalf of EU governments, should have foreseen that a “next-generation” deal such as CETA, replete with special courts for investors and complex provisions on the mutual recognition of standards, would attract next-generation opposition. 

debacle：大敗
national office：国内官庁
fringe：少数派
awkward：厄介な
bite：噛み付く
replete：十分に備えて

But the contingencies of CETA slot into a broader pattern. From regional parliaments to national referendums and restive constitutional courts, numerous spoilers have been hindering what should be routine European business. The EU is supposed to provide a forum in which governments can mediate their differences and forge compromises. But referendums are impervious to negotiation; regional parliaments are answerable only to their voters. Instead obscure politicians, like Paul Magnette, the indomitable minister-president of Wallonia, can extract concessions as ransom for their political hostage-taking, or simply hog the limelight. As regions or countries transfer their pathologies upwards to Europe, the EU risks sliding towards what Americans call a “vetocracy”. 

broader pattern：より広範なパターン
restive：反抗的な
spoilers：妨害する人たち
hindering：妨害する
mediate：調停する
forge：成し遂げる
impervious：受け付けない
answerable：説明責任がある
indomitable：不屈の
ransom：身代金
hostage-taking：人質誘拐
hog the limelight：人の注目を浴びる
pathologies：病理・異常行動

What’s worse, trade is the one thing the EU is supposed to be able to do well. The Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957, granted Brussels the exclusive right to negotiate trade deals on behalf of governments. Since then the EU has concluded such accords with more than 50 countries; dozens more are in the pipeline. By the commission’s reckoning, one-seventh of the European workforce depends, directly or indirectly, on external trade (and all citizens benefit from cheaper goods). Last week Donald Tusk, who chairs summits of EU leaders, warned that failure on CETA would mean the EU could never strike a trade deal again. Not only would that choke off an important source of growth; it would make it difficult to see exactly what the point of European co-operation is. 

reckoning：推測では
strike a trade deal：貿易協定を結ぶ
choke off ：抑制する

The mess over CETA is in part collateral damage from the row over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a bigger and more vexatious EU-America agreement. Protesters transferred their outrage seamlessly from one to the other, dismissing cuddly Canada as a Trojan horse for rapacious American multinationals seeking to trample on European standards. The investment-protection provisions of the two deals (supposedly the main Walloon grievance) proved another source of trouble. Even after they were watered down, Europe’s governments forced the commission to declare CETA a “mixed” deal, meaning it required ratification by each national parliament (and, in Belgium’s case, five regional assemblies) rather than the European Parliament alone. If TTIP is ever signed—which now looks increasingly unlikely—it will surely face the same tortuous fate. 

collateral damage：付随的損害
row：連続
vexatious：当惑させる
dismissing：退ける
cuddly：抱きしめたくなるような
rapacious ：略奪をほしいままにする
trample：踏みにじる
grievance：不平
watered：骨抜きにする
tortuous：曲がりくねった

Deals that do not carry a transatlantic whiff may fare better. As Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission president, noted in frustration last week, the EU has recently concluded an agreement with Vietnam, a country not noted for its dedication to human rights, without a whisper of protest. Talks with Japan, too, are quietly approaching the finishing line. 

whiff：兆候

Yet the EU’s credibility as a trade negotiator rests on its ability to speak for its members. Without that, the world’s largest consumer market starts to lose its allure. The agonising course of CETA will not quickly be forgotten by potential partners. If boning up on the niceties of Belgian regional politics, or the details of national referendum laws, becomes a prerequisite for negotiating with the EU, they will start to wonder if it is worth the bother. 

credibility：信頼性
rests：に依拠する
allure：charm
agonising：苦闘させる
boning：に備えてガツガツ勉強する
niceties：微妙さ・微妙な点
prerequisite：必要条件
bother：骨折り・大きな困難

Worthwhile Canadian initiative
More worrying is the damage to the EU’s self-esteem. The club is trying to get over its funk about Britain’s vote to leave by pushing something called the “Bratislava roadmap”, a policy blueprint of sorts for the months ahead. If its initiatives do not amount to much, it is at least an attempt to demonstrate that Brexit will not paralyse ordinary decision-making. Plainly, the Walloons did not get the memo. Striking a trade deal with a friendly partner like Canada should have been about as easy as it gets for the EU. 

Worthwhile：やりがいのある
self-esteem：自己を肯定する態度・自尊心
get over：克服する
funk：落胆・落ち込んだ状態
“Bratislava roadmap”：The Bratislava Declaration Today we meet in Bratislava at a critical time for our European project. The Bratislava Summit of 27 Member States has been devoted to diagnose together the present state of the European Union and discuss our common future. We all agreed on the following general principles. Although one country has decided to leave, the EU remains indispensable for the rest of us. In the aftermath of the wars and deep divisions on our continent, the EU secured peace, democracy and enabled our countries to prosper. Many countries and regions outside still only strive for such achievements. We are determined to make a success of the EU with 27 Member States, building on this joint history.
amount：たいして成功しない
paralyse：麻痺させる
Plainly：明らかに
Walloons：フランス語の方言を話し、ベルギー南部と東部およびフランス周辺部に住んでいる民族
get the memo：そんな話は聞いていない・情報を手に入れていなかった

Few can take heart from this embarrassment. Eurosceptic governments that have sought to take back powers from Brussels, like Hungary and Poland, certainly did not have trade in mind. Trade-phobic leftists who cheered the plucky Walloons should remember that the next referendum or parliamentary vote might be turned against one of their own causes, such as generosity to refugees. In fact, the only politicians with cause for celebration are those who argue that the EU itself is past its sell-by date. True to form, Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s National Front, denounced the “totalitarian” EU for attempting to squash Wallonian democracy. Though it has squeaked through, CETA will leave an unhappy legacy. 

take heart from：元気を出す
embarrassment：厄介な出来事
Eurosceptic：欧州連合[EU]の強大化に懐疑的な
trade in mind：念頭に置いて取引をする
phobic：恐怖症の
plucky：大胆な・勇気のある
sell-by：be past one's sell-by date ｟くだけて｠無効になる, もはや役に立たない[興味をそそらない]; 〈人などが〉全盛期を過ぎている.
True to form：例のごとく
totalitarian：全体主義者の
squash：踏み潰す
squeaked：ギリギリで目標を達成する・切り抜ける
legacy：不幸な遺産を残すだろう

カナダとEUの間の包括的経済貿易協定が失敗した背景を述べている。Walloonsと呼ばれているWalloniaの地域の人々の反対が原因で、この協定が流れてしまった。EUが時代の流れの中で無力化して来ている。この協定は元には戻れない。TTIPはますます困難になるだろう。EUがこうした協定に否定的になると言うことは今後どうなっていくのだろうかと言う記事だ。TTPも同様だろう。我々はこうした世界の流れを真摯に受け止めて将来に向けて対処していかなければならない。世界はグローバリゼーションに逆行しているということだ。来年は円高になるということかもしれない。それと合わせて、アメリカの選挙もある。来年は大変な年になりそうだ。

火曜日。今日はこれまで。昨日は1日、研修資料の作成と少しだけ本を書くことができた。朝６時から夜９時過ぎまで、調子は良かった。今日は愚妻の病院に付き添って慈恵医大に行って来る。あとは研修資料と本書きが半々ぐらいかな。ではまた明日。