2016年11月23日
ロシアのダークライダーの時代の到来
The Coming Era of Russia's Dark Rider
Geopolitical Weekly SEPTEMBER 24, 2007 | 06:53 GMT
Stratfor
ロシアのダークライダーの時代の到来
Russian President Vladimir Putin MARTIN BUREAU/AFP/Getty Images
Editor's note: As Vladimir Putin's inauguration May 7 marks the beginning of his third term as president of Russia, Stratfor looks back at our previous assessments of Putin's leadership and forecasts of Russia's return to global prominence. In 2000, Stratfor assessed how newly elected President Putin would assert his power: centralizing control over Russia's regions, clamping down on the militant Caucasus, purging the Russian oligarchs, controlling the economy and forging strategic foreign relationships (such as with Germany). In 2005, Stratfor reassessed Putin's situation after his first presidential term and laid out how his leadership was in line with the role Russian leaders inevitably play in this stage of the country's historical cycle. Looking forward, Stratfor sees Putin's leadership moving Russia into the next stage where Russia solidifies its resurgence into most of its former sphere of influence.
By Peter Zeihan
prominence:目立つこと
solidifies:意見を固める
resurgence:復活
sphere:勢力範囲
Russian opposition members rallied in Moscow's Pushkin Square on April 14. The so-called Dissenters' March was organized by Other Russia, an umbrella group that includes everyone from unrepentant communists and free-market reformers to far-right ultranationalists whose only uniting characteristic is their common opposition to the centralization of power under President Vladimir Putin's administration.
unrepentant :悔い改めていない
Minutes after the march began, the 2,000 or so protesters found themselves outnumbered more than four to one by security forces. They quickly dispersed the activists, beating and briefly detaining those who sought to break through the riot-control lines. Among those arrested were chess-champion-turned-political-activist Garry Kasparov and Maria Gaidar, the daughter of Russia's first post-Soviet reformist prime minister. Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov only avoided arrest because his bodyguards helped him to escape. A Reuters crew was permitted to capture the events and disseminate them to the West. A day later, another protest, albeit far smaller, was broken up in a similar way in St. Petersburg, though Kasparov was detained before the protest even began.
disseminate:広める
The protests were insignificant in both numerical and political terms, and with all that is going on in the world right now, the last thing the Putin government needs is to attract negative attention to itself. But the government's actions are better understood when one considers Russia's point in its historical cycle and the mounting pressures on Putin personally that have nothing whatsoever to do with "democracy."
with all that is going on:世界でいろんなことが起こっている中で
The Russian Cycle
At the risk of sounding like a high school social studies teacher (or even George Friedman), history really does run in cycles. Take Europe for example. European history is a chronicle of the rise and fall of its geographic center. As Germany rises, the powers on its periphery buckle under its strength and are forced to pool resources in order to beat back Berlin. As Germany falters, the power vacuum at the middle of the Continent allows the countries on Germany's borders to rise in strength and become major powers themselves.
sounding:が言うように聞こえるリスクはあるが
periphery:周囲
buckle under its strength:その強さに屈する
falters:衰える
Since the formation of the first "Germany" in 800, this cycle has set the tempo and tenor of European affairs. A strong Germany means consolidation followed by a catastrophic war; a weak Germany creates a multilateral concert of powers and multistate competition (often involving war, but not on nearly as large a scale). For Europe this cycle of German rise and fall has run its course three times — the Holy Roman Empire, Imperial Germany, Nazi Germany — and is only now entering its fourth iteration with the reunified Germany.
tempo:速さ・進み具合
tenor:方向
consolidation:統合・合併
multilateral:多国籍の
on nearly as large a scale:ほぼ大規模で
iteration:繰り返し
Russia's cycle, however, is far less clinical than Europe's. It begins with a national catastrophe. Sometimes it manifests as a result of disastrous internal planning; sometimes it follows a foreign invasion. But always it rips up the existing social order and threatens Russia with chaos and dissolution. The most recent such catastrophe was the Soviet collapse followed by the 1998 financial crisis. Previous disasters include the crushing of Russian forces in World War I and the imposition of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk; the "Time of Troubles," whose period of internal warfare and conspiracy-laden politics are a testament to the Russian predilection for understatement; and near annihilation under the Mongol occupation.
clinical:味気のない
manifests:明らかにする
rips:粉々に引き裂く
dissolution:解体
imposition:押し付けること
Treaties of Brest-Litovsk: ブレスト=リトフスク条約 1918年3月3日ソ連とドイツおよびその同盟国との間に結ばれた単独講和条約。十一月革命後ソビエト政権はドイツ側に休戦を呼びかけ,17年 12月3日からブレスト=リトフスク (現ブレスト) で交渉が始り,12月 15日暫定停戦協定が成立し,18年1月9日に交渉が再開された。
testament:証拠
predilection:特別の強い好み
understatement:控えめに述べること
annihilation:全滅
Mongol occupation:創始者であるチンギス・ハンの孫バトゥを総司令官とするモンゴル軍は、ロシアを次々と征服し、死体の山を築きます。キエフも1240年に占領されました。 また、ポーランドにも攻め込み、ワールシュタットの戦いで、彼らはポーランド・ドイツ軍を撃破。西ヨーロッパにも侵攻を始めます。が、本国で皇帝オゴタイ・ハンが死去し、後継者を決めないといけないのでバトゥは撤退。そして、ロシアにキプチャク・ハン国を形成します。首都はヴォルガ川河口のサライ。ロシアの諸侯達は忠誠を誓わされ、莫大な貢税を納めさせられ、これは「タタールのくびき」として後のロシア精神にも影を落とすこととなります。
Out of the horrors of defeat, the Russians search desperately for the second phase of the cycle — the arrival of a white rider — and invariably they find one. The white rider rarely encapsulates what Westerners conceive of as a savior — someone who will bring wealth and freedom. Russian concerns after such calamities are far more basic: they want stability. But by Russian standards, the white rider is a rather optimistic fellow. He truly believes that Russia can recover from its time of trial, once a level of order is restored. So the Russian white rider sets about imposing a sense of consistency and strength, ending the free fall of Russian life. Putin is the current incarnation of Russia's white rider, which puts him in the same category as past leaders such as Vladimir Lenin and, of course, Russia's "Greats": Catherine and Peter.
encapsulates:を要約する
conceive:と考える
savior:困難を救う人
calamities:災難
time of trial:試練の時
restored:回復する
free fall:急激な下落
今回はプーチンの話だ。歴史は繰り返すというか、ロシアがいままでの歴史の中で、色々は事象が起こってきたが、モンゴル帝国による支配だとか、ロシア革命があったのだが、プーチンは勝手の支配者であるロシア帝国のエカチェリーナ2世とか皇帝ピョートル3世、そしてレーニンのようなレベルのリーダーの再来ではないかという話だ。そうなるともしかしたら、トランプもジョージ・ワシントンとかエイブラハム・リンカーンになぞられるような偉大な大統領になるのかもしれない。と言ったようなレベルの話をしている。彼は大きなサイクルで歴史は繰り返すと言っているが、インドネシアのジョコウィドド、フィリピンのドゥテルテ、アメリカのトランプという新しいタイプの大統領の出現は必ずしも偶然の一致ではなさそうだ。世界が大きく変わる先がげの事象かもしれない。
木曜日。昨日は勤労感謝の日だったので、愚妻を連れて、恵比寿のローリーに行った。1日、研修資料を作成することができた。今日は海野塾がある。楽しい日だ。ではまた明日。
Geopolitical Weekly SEPTEMBER 24, 2007 | 06:53 GMT
Stratfor
ロシアのダークライダーの時代の到来
Russian President Vladimir Putin MARTIN BUREAU/AFP/Getty Images
Editor's note: As Vladimir Putin's inauguration May 7 marks the beginning of his third term as president of Russia, Stratfor looks back at our previous assessments of Putin's leadership and forecasts of Russia's return to global prominence. In 2000, Stratfor assessed how newly elected President Putin would assert his power: centralizing control over Russia's regions, clamping down on the militant Caucasus, purging the Russian oligarchs, controlling the economy and forging strategic foreign relationships (such as with Germany). In 2005, Stratfor reassessed Putin's situation after his first presidential term and laid out how his leadership was in line with the role Russian leaders inevitably play in this stage of the country's historical cycle. Looking forward, Stratfor sees Putin's leadership moving Russia into the next stage where Russia solidifies its resurgence into most of its former sphere of influence.
By Peter Zeihan
prominence:目立つこと
solidifies:意見を固める
resurgence:復活
sphere:勢力範囲
Russian opposition members rallied in Moscow's Pushkin Square on April 14. The so-called Dissenters' March was organized by Other Russia, an umbrella group that includes everyone from unrepentant communists and free-market reformers to far-right ultranationalists whose only uniting characteristic is their common opposition to the centralization of power under President Vladimir Putin's administration.
unrepentant :悔い改めていない
Minutes after the march began, the 2,000 or so protesters found themselves outnumbered more than four to one by security forces. They quickly dispersed the activists, beating and briefly detaining those who sought to break through the riot-control lines. Among those arrested were chess-champion-turned-political-activist Garry Kasparov and Maria Gaidar, the daughter of Russia's first post-Soviet reformist prime minister. Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov only avoided arrest because his bodyguards helped him to escape. A Reuters crew was permitted to capture the events and disseminate them to the West. A day later, another protest, albeit far smaller, was broken up in a similar way in St. Petersburg, though Kasparov was detained before the protest even began.
disseminate:広める
The protests were insignificant in both numerical and political terms, and with all that is going on in the world right now, the last thing the Putin government needs is to attract negative attention to itself. But the government's actions are better understood when one considers Russia's point in its historical cycle and the mounting pressures on Putin personally that have nothing whatsoever to do with "democracy."
with all that is going on:世界でいろんなことが起こっている中で
The Russian Cycle
At the risk of sounding like a high school social studies teacher (or even George Friedman), history really does run in cycles. Take Europe for example. European history is a chronicle of the rise and fall of its geographic center. As Germany rises, the powers on its periphery buckle under its strength and are forced to pool resources in order to beat back Berlin. As Germany falters, the power vacuum at the middle of the Continent allows the countries on Germany's borders to rise in strength and become major powers themselves.
sounding:が言うように聞こえるリスクはあるが
periphery:周囲
buckle under its strength:その強さに屈する
falters:衰える
Since the formation of the first "Germany" in 800, this cycle has set the tempo and tenor of European affairs. A strong Germany means consolidation followed by a catastrophic war; a weak Germany creates a multilateral concert of powers and multistate competition (often involving war, but not on nearly as large a scale). For Europe this cycle of German rise and fall has run its course three times — the Holy Roman Empire, Imperial Germany, Nazi Germany — and is only now entering its fourth iteration with the reunified Germany.
tempo:速さ・進み具合
tenor:方向
consolidation:統合・合併
multilateral:多国籍の
on nearly as large a scale:ほぼ大規模で
iteration:繰り返し
Russia's cycle, however, is far less clinical than Europe's. It begins with a national catastrophe. Sometimes it manifests as a result of disastrous internal planning; sometimes it follows a foreign invasion. But always it rips up the existing social order and threatens Russia with chaos and dissolution. The most recent such catastrophe was the Soviet collapse followed by the 1998 financial crisis. Previous disasters include the crushing of Russian forces in World War I and the imposition of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk; the "Time of Troubles," whose period of internal warfare and conspiracy-laden politics are a testament to the Russian predilection for understatement; and near annihilation under the Mongol occupation.
clinical:味気のない
manifests:明らかにする
rips:粉々に引き裂く
dissolution:解体
imposition:押し付けること
Treaties of Brest-Litovsk: ブレスト=リトフスク条約 1918年3月3日ソ連とドイツおよびその同盟国との間に結ばれた単独講和条約。十一月革命後ソビエト政権はドイツ側に休戦を呼びかけ,17年 12月3日からブレスト=リトフスク (現ブレスト) で交渉が始り,12月 15日暫定停戦協定が成立し,18年1月9日に交渉が再開された。
testament:証拠
predilection:特別の強い好み
understatement:控えめに述べること
annihilation:全滅
Mongol occupation:創始者であるチンギス・ハンの孫バトゥを総司令官とするモンゴル軍は、ロシアを次々と征服し、死体の山を築きます。キエフも1240年に占領されました。 また、ポーランドにも攻め込み、ワールシュタットの戦いで、彼らはポーランド・ドイツ軍を撃破。西ヨーロッパにも侵攻を始めます。が、本国で皇帝オゴタイ・ハンが死去し、後継者を決めないといけないのでバトゥは撤退。そして、ロシアにキプチャク・ハン国を形成します。首都はヴォルガ川河口のサライ。ロシアの諸侯達は忠誠を誓わされ、莫大な貢税を納めさせられ、これは「タタールのくびき」として後のロシア精神にも影を落とすこととなります。
Out of the horrors of defeat, the Russians search desperately for the second phase of the cycle — the arrival of a white rider — and invariably they find one. The white rider rarely encapsulates what Westerners conceive of as a savior — someone who will bring wealth and freedom. Russian concerns after such calamities are far more basic: they want stability. But by Russian standards, the white rider is a rather optimistic fellow. He truly believes that Russia can recover from its time of trial, once a level of order is restored. So the Russian white rider sets about imposing a sense of consistency and strength, ending the free fall of Russian life. Putin is the current incarnation of Russia's white rider, which puts him in the same category as past leaders such as Vladimir Lenin and, of course, Russia's "Greats": Catherine and Peter.
encapsulates:を要約する
conceive:と考える
savior:困難を救う人
calamities:災難
time of trial:試練の時
restored:回復する
free fall:急激な下落
今回はプーチンの話だ。歴史は繰り返すというか、ロシアがいままでの歴史の中で、色々は事象が起こってきたが、モンゴル帝国による支配だとか、ロシア革命があったのだが、プーチンは勝手の支配者であるロシア帝国のエカチェリーナ2世とか皇帝ピョートル3世、そしてレーニンのようなレベルのリーダーの再来ではないかという話だ。そうなるともしかしたら、トランプもジョージ・ワシントンとかエイブラハム・リンカーンになぞられるような偉大な大統領になるのかもしれない。と言ったようなレベルの話をしている。彼は大きなサイクルで歴史は繰り返すと言っているが、インドネシアのジョコウィドド、フィリピンのドゥテルテ、アメリカのトランプという新しいタイプの大統領の出現は必ずしも偶然の一致ではなさそうだ。世界が大きく変わる先がげの事象かもしれない。
木曜日。昨日は勤労感謝の日だったので、愚妻を連れて、恵比寿のローリーに行った。1日、研修資料を作成することができた。今日は海野塾がある。楽しい日だ。ではまた明日。