2016年11月26日

ロシアのダークライダーの時代の到来(3)

After a period of unification and expansion under the dark rider, Russia inevitably suffers from overextension. No land power can endlessly expand: the farther its troops are from core territories, the more expensive they are to maintain and the more vulnerable they are to counterattack by foreign forces. Similarly, the more non-Russians who are brought under the aegis of the Russian state, the less able the state is to impose its will on its population — at least without Stalin-style brute force. 

inevitably:必然的に
counterattack:反撃する
aegis:保護のもとに
impose its will:その意思を押し付ける

This overextension just as inevitably leads to stagnation as the post-dark rider leadership attempts to come to grips with Russia's new reality, but lacks the resources to do so. Attempts at reform transform stagnation into decline. Stalin gives way to a miscalculating Nikita Khrushchev, a barely conscious Leonid Brezhnev, an outmatched Mikhail Gorbachev and a very drunk Boris Yeltsin. A new disaster eventually manifests and the cycle begins anew. 

stagnation:景気停滞
conscious:気づいている
outmatched:不利な競争をさせられた
drunk:酔いしれていた
anew:苦難のすえ再出発する

Why the Crackdown?
The April 14-15 protests occurred at an inflection point between the second and third parts of the cycle — as the white rider is giving way to a dark rider. Past Russian protests that involved 2,500 total people at most would have been allowed simply because they did not matter. The Putin government has a majority in the rubber-stamp Duma sufficient to pass any law or constitutional change in a short afternoon of parliamentary fury. All meaningful political parties have been disbanded, criminalized or marginalized; the political system is fully under Kremlin control. The Kasparov/Kasyanov protests did not threaten Putin in any meaningful way — yet in both Moscow and St. Petersburg a few dozen people were blocked, beaten and hauled off to court. 

at most:多くても
rubber-stamp:決定を安易に行う
Duma:ロシアの国会
fury:すごいスピードで
disbanded:解散する
criminalized:違法とする
marginalized:主流からはずす
hauled:法廷に引っ張られる

This development was no accident. Roughly 9,000 riot police do not spontaneously materialize anywhere, and certainly not as the result of an overenthusiastic or less-than-sober local commander. A crackdown in one city could be a misunderstanding; a crackdown in two is state policy. And one does not send hundreds of batons swinging while allowing Reuters to keep filming unless the objective is to allow the world to see. Putin chose to make these protests an issue. 

overenthusiastic:過度に熱狂的な
sober:真面目な
batons:警官の警棒

Putin, then, is considering various groups and rationalizing his actions in the context of Russia's historical cycle: 

rationalizing:正当化する

The West: Putin certainly does not want any Western capital to think he will take exiled oligarch Boris Berezovsky's recent threats of forcible revolution lying down. Berezovsky says violence is a possibility — a probability even — in the future of regime change in Russia? Fine. Putin can and did quite easily demonstrate that, when it comes to the application of force in internal politics, the Russian government remains without peer. 

forcible:力ずくの
possibility:可能性
probability:公算・ありそうなこと
確実性はcertainty>probability>possibilityの順に低くなる
application of force:兵力の使用
without peer:並ぶものがない

The people: Putin knows that governance is not so much about ruling as it is about managing expectations. Russians crave stability, and Putin's ability to grant that stability has earned him significant gravitas throughout Russia as well as a grudging respect from even his most stalwart foes. He is portraying groups such as the Other Russia as troublemakers and disturbers of the peace. Such explanations make quite attractive packaging to the average Russian. 

governance:統治
crave:しきりにしたがる
gravitas :実直さ・真面目さ
grudging:不承不承の
stalwart:不動の・屈強な
portraying:の役を演じる

The opposition: It is one thing to oppose a wildly powerful and popular government. It is another thing when that government beats you while the people nod approvingly and the international community barely murmurs its protest. Putin has driven home the message that the opposition is not just isolated and out of touch, but that it is abandoned. 

barely :かろうじて・どうにか
murmurs:つぶやく
abandoned:見捨てる

The Kremlin: Just because Putin is disappointed that his dreams are unattainable does not mean he wants to be tossed out the proverbial air lock. Showing any weakness during a transition period in Russian culture is tantamount to surrender — particularly when Russia's siloviki (nationalists) are always seeking to rise to the top of the heap. Putin knows he has to be firm if he is to play any role in shaping Russia during and after the transition. After all, should Medvedev and Ivanov fail to make the grade, someone will need to rule Russia — and the only man alive with more experience than Putin has a blood-alcohol level that precludes sound decision-making.

tossed:投げかける・提示する
proverbial:よく知られている
air lock:気密室 気密室の外に投げ出されるという意味は死ぬことを意味する
tantamount:も同然である
heap:組織の上層に登る
make the grade:基準に達する
precludes:邪魔する

ロシアは領土を拡張したが、今度はそこの住民をどう管理するかはスターリンがしたように暴力で押さえつけるしか治安の方法はない。景気停滞は資源が手当てしきれないので、やむを得ない。抗議デモは今までは二千五百人までは良かったがそれ以上は許していない。一党独裁なので、好きなように取り締まることができる。西側諸国に対してはロシアが揺るぎない体制であることを示すことができる。国民からは敵国が羨ましがるほど支持されている。反政府活動は全く許容しない。クレムリンの体制は弱みを出すことは許されない。プーチンの後継者は相当のものでなければ務まらないだろうといった記事だ。昨日も言ったが、プーチンはしたたかだ。そうした意味ではトランプももしかしたら彼と同類かもしれない。そうなると習近平と三人で世界を制覇してしまうかもしれない。あとインドがあるが。

土曜日。昨日は通常であれば本書きの日だったのだが、1日来週の研修資料のシナリオ作成をした。テーマが大きいので、来週の金曜日なのだが、どうも今から対応しないと間に合いそうにないことがわかった。夜は本を多少書くことができた。今日は海野塾だ。そのあとは忘年会がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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