2016年11月28日

TPPの崩壊

The collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Nov 23rd 2016, 23:00 BY S.R. | SHANGHAI

TPPの崩壊




THE world's most ambitious free-trade deal in decades is all but dead. Donald Trump has said that on his first day in office America will quit the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a pact that was nearly a decade in the works. Encompassing 12 Pacific Rim countries, including America, Japan and Canada, the TPP would have covered nearly two-fifths of the global economy. Mr Trump had called it a “horrible deal” on the campaign trail. In declaring his intent this week to withdraw from it, he said it was “a potential disaster for our country”. But proponents say it would have been a big improvement on existing trade deals and very good for America. Which view is right, and what happens now? 

all but:ほとんど
Encompassing:取り囲む
proponents:支持者

Measuring the precise impact of trade deals that have been in place for years is hard enough. Forecasting the impact of future deals is even harder. Nevertheless, many economists would agree with two general statements. On one hand, TPP would have generated more growth for all inside the agreement. A series of independent studies predicted that America would have reaped the biggest gains in dollar terms and that emerging markets, especially Vietnam, would have benefited most relative to their size. 

reaped:利益を享受する

On the other hand, while free-trade deals enrich countries in general, downsides can be severe for industries and regions that lose out. Moreover, recent research has showed that these negative effects are often longer lasting than optimists had once believed. The TPP would, in other words, probably have increased America’s growth, but at least some people would have been justified in thinking it horrible. 

downsides:否定的な側面
justified:正しいと証明する

But looking at the impact on GDP alone is too narrow. The purpose of the TPP was always partly strategic. America and others alongside it, from Australia to Singapore, hoped the deal would let them shape the architecture of international trade in Asia and beyond. Their ambition was that the TPP would set a new standard for future deals. Rather than a traditional emphasis on cutting tariffs (which are already very low between richer countries), they turned to thornier issues such as differences in intellectual-property regulations. 

thornier:厄介な

Even if the TPP failed to live up to their lofty rhetoric, it did break new ground. It contained stronger protection for labour rights, more environmental safeguards and, for the first time ever, measures to limit government support for state-owned companies. The deal was most notable, though, for its exclusion of China. The door might eventually have been opened to it but only after signing on to the full body of rules that the original TPP members, led by America, had hammered out. 

live up to:を裏切らないようの行動する
lofty:高尚な
rhetoric:誇張した表現
break new ground:新天地を開拓する
notable:注目に値する
eventually:ゆくゆくは
full body:全体の
hammered out:徹底的に議論して合意を打ち出す

The collapse of the TPP thus creates a void in Asia. America’s role as an economic power in the region has been undermined by Mr Trump’s isolationist turn. In theory the remaining 11 members could refashion the TPP, but Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, spoke for many in saying that it would be “meaningless” without America. Observers are now looking for China to assume the mantle of economic leadership in Asia. Conveniently, it is pushing for a free-trade deal (the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) that is close to completion. 

void:喪失感
undermined:徐々に損なう
refashion :作り直す
mantle:役割

But the shift of power to China is far from straightforward. Countries in the region are wary of its export juggernaut, an awkward starting point at the negotiating table. China’s blueprints for trade deals are also much more conservative than America’s, barely touching the regulatory thicket that made the TPP important. Asian countries will instead need to turn to the messy work of building up bilateral agreements. The hole left by America’s withdrawal is a big one, and not easily filled. 

straightforward:単純な
juggernaut:圧倒的な力
awkward:厄介な
thicket :大量で込み入ったもの・茂み

TPPからアメリカが撤退するので、アジア各国は喪失感を持っていて、一方、中国がRCEPを取りまとめようとしているが、彼らは輸出力が強大だから各国はそうした中国との取引を警戒している。2国間によるFTAを模索してくことになるだろう。

アメリカがTPPに参加しないのは中国が入っていないからだ。AIIBにはトランプは加入するだろう。だが、アジアの商圏がアメリカの直近のビジネス振興策だが、彼らは中国に対抗して、何を考えていくのだろうか。もしくは中国とは対抗せず、一緒にビジネスを展開しようとしているのかもしれない。さらにロシアも加えて。そうなると、頭の固い日本はついていけないだろう。

月曜日。土曜日の忘年会で食べすぎて、日曜日は食が進まなかった。朝から今週の研修の資料の作成をして、夜は本を少し書くことができた。今日も昨日と同じパターンだ。愚妻の調子が良ければ一緒に昼を食べようと思っている。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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