2016年12月11日

エジプトがサウジアラビアと対立しているので、新たな友好国を模索している。 一連の出来事がアラブの大国であり富裕国である国家間の関係を崩壊させてきている。

As Egypt quarrels with Saudi Arabia, it is finding new friends
A series of incidents has disrupted the relationship between the Arab world’s biggest and richest countries
Nov 25th 2016 | CAIRO | Middle East and Africa

エジプトがサウジアラビアと対立しているので、新たな友好国を模索している。
一連の出来事がアラブの大国であり富裕国である国家間の関係を崩壊させてきている。




IT SEEMS that $25bn does not buy you much in the way of loyalty these days. That, give or take a few billion, is how much Saudi Arabia has pumped into Egypt since 2013, when Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, then a general, toppled the country’s first democratically elected—and Islamist—president. The cash helped Egypt avoid an economic collapse. But lately it has shown little devotion to its benefactor. And the kingdom, in turn, has cut off its needy neighbour. 

buy:受け入れる・買収する
pumped:投入する
toppled:倒す
devotion:忠誠心
benefactor:後援者
cut off:関係を断つ
needy:貧乏な

The principal cause of the rift is the war in Syria, which has upset a regional order that tends to divide along sectarian lines. Sunni powers, led by Saudi Arabia, have backed rebels trying to oust Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s blood-soaked dictator. Shia powers, such as Iran and Lebanon’s Hizbullah militia, back Mr Assad, who is Alawite (an offshoot of Shiism). So far, so predictable. But Egypt, which is mostly Sunni, has also quietly sided with the dictator. 

rift:仲違い
upset:動揺させる
sectarian:宗派間の
soaked:ずぶ濡れで
predictable:予測ができる

That much was evident in October, when Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, lobbied to have Egypt join international talks over Syria in order to bolster the pro-Assad contingent. Days later Egypt voted for a UN Security Council resolution on the war offered by Russia, which also backs Mr Assad. The measure, criticised for failing to address Russian airstrikes in support of the dictator, did not pass. But Saudi Arabia’s envoy to the UN described Egypt’s vote as “painful”. 

contingent:代表団
measure:議案

Saudi Arabia’s priority is to curb the influence of Iran, which it sees as a destabilising force. The kingdom has enlisted the help of Islamist rebels in Syria and Yemen, where it is fighting against the Iranian-backed Houthi clan. It has also allied with Turkey and Qatar, which are sympathetic to Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. But those same Islamist groups are the top concern of Mr Sisi, now Egypt’s president, who deems them terrorist organisations. He booted the Brotherhood from office and sees Mr Assad as another bulwark against extremism and the disintegration of the state. 

enlisted:を求める
booted:追い出す
bulwark:防波堤
disintegration:崩壊

The quarrel between Egypt and Saudi Arabia comes as both countries face big economic challenges. Despite suffering from low oil prices, the kingdom sent $2bn to Egypt in September, helping it secure a loan from the IMF. But the Saudis also cut off shipments of cheap oil the following month, leaving Egypt scrambling to cover the shortfall. Whether it was a rebuke or mere frugality, the Saudis did not say. But Egyptian media figures slammed the kingdom for trying to put pressure on their government. “Egypt bows to no one but God,” said Mr Sisi, in response to the outcry. 

scrambling:かき集める
shortfall:不足量
rebuke:非難
frugality:倹約
slammed:酷評する
bows :神以外の誰にも屈しない
outcry:抗議

There is a sense of wounded pride in Egypt, which once led the Arab world but is now beholden to the Gulf states. Many Egyptians think the rest of the region is still made up of “tribes with flags”, as an Egyptian diplomat once put it. A decision by Mr Sisi in April, later blocked by an Egyptian court, to transfer two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia was the cause of rare protests. The resentment is fuelled by the Egyptian media, which blames the kingdom for inspiring radical Islamists (including the Brotherhood). Most Saudis practice Wahhabism, an austere strand of Islam. 

beholden:借りがある
"Tribes With Flags" is part of a phrase attributed to Tahseen Bashir, an Egyptian diplomat (April 1925 - June 11, 2002). Regarding his belief in the centrality of Egypt within the Middle East he opined: "Egypt is the only nation-state in the Arab world; the rest are just tribes with flags".
resentment:憤慨
austere:厳格な
strand:理論の一部

The disdain runs the other way, too. Many Gulf Arabs view Egypt’s leaders as hacks and wonder how they frittered away billions of dollars in aid. In October the head of the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation, Iyad bin Amin Madani, a Saudi, mocked Mr Sisi for claiming to have spent much of his life with only water in his refrigerator (an attempt to empathise with suffering Egyptians). After Egyptian complaints, Mr Madani resigned, citing health issues. 

disdain:優越感からくる侮辱
hacks:三流の政治家・金儲け第一主義の人
frittered:少しづつ浪費をする
mocked:嘲ける
claiming:主張する

Saudi Arabia’s actions may be pushing Egypt into the hands of the kingdom’s rivals. After the fuel shipments were stopped, Egypt agreed to import oil from Iraq, which now has close ties to Iran. This is in keeping with Mr Sisi’s effort to diversify his country’s alliances after support from America, its most important backer, wavered following his coup. Donald Trump, America’s president-elect, now seems inclined to back Mr Sisi regardless of his dreadful human-rights record. Egypt has also moved closer to Russia, with which it held joint military exercises last month. 

wavered:心が揺れる
dreadful:とても悪い

Periodic crises have afflicted the Egyptian-Saudi relationship for decades, so analysts warn not to make too much of the current spat. “Egypt needs Saudi Arabia’s largesse and Saudi Arabia—surrounded by enemies and unfriendly regimes in Iran, Syria, Iraq and Yemen—needs Egypt’s regional weight,” says Nael Shama, a Cairo-based political analyst. It is good, then, that neither seems to need the other’s affection. 

afflicted:苦しめる
spat:口論
largesse:寛大さ
affection:好意

エジプトとサウジとの関係で、双方がうまくいっていない。エジプトのシシは同胞団を追い出したが、彼らはスンニで、サウジもスンニだ。同胞団は買っては共産主義がベースで、中東の各国に浸透していたが、今はトルコのエルドアンがそうだ。エジプトはかっては中東では唯一の国家だと自称していたが、現在は逆にアラブ諸国から借りがある。サウジがエジプトを支援してきていたが、ここにきて、石油の供給をやめている。仕方なくエジプトはイラクに頼ろうとしている。また、アメリカとかロシアとも改めて関係を持とうとしている。

このエジプトがどのように動いていくのかが注目される。勝手の力はもうないが、歴史のある国なので、その出方が注目される。イラン、イラク、シリア、イエメンとの関係が今後どうなるかについてはサウジの敵であるだけに、注目したいところだ。そうした意味ではまだまだエジプトの果たせる役割はこの中東では大きいと言える。

昨日は海野塾があったが、その前日はよく寝られず、3時間しか睡眠を取らなかった。それでもなんとか1日持った。夜は懇親会がなかったので、本を書くことができた。もうじき四回目のチェックが完了する。後6回だ。年末年始には完了できるだろう。今日は英語の資料チェックがないので、一日、資料作成になる。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
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